All that matters is the credit cycle which is based on if banks are lending money like there is no tomorrow or making it near impossible for most to qualify for loans. Normally we see a blow off top where the dollar weakens and commodities scream higher. Once the equity market tops and rolls over you will see ppl going to cash, bonds (if interest rates drop) and utilities. Looks like we still have some more room to the upside in the stock market as precious metals and commodities have yet to move off their 40 year lows vs the SP 500.

credit cycle (resized).jpgcycles-1 (resized).jpgETF (resized).pngSP500-vs-Commodities-768x566 (resized).png

phase 1-4 (resized).png

https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/07/06/trade-wars-gold-and-a-once-in-a-lifetime-opportunity.html

Interesting article based on that SP500 vs Commodities ratio chart above in the previous post.

My TBL Early Achievers post about learning how to trade and making up that loss $8500 by trading options was deleted. I took the losses personal and figured out a way to make that money back that was stolen from Barry and the DP gang. So I decided maybe the appropriate place for this chatter is here within this thread.

I hired Scott a trading coach four years ago. He was someone who had twenty years of experience and two blown accounts in the rear view mirror. He also did work on the Think or Swim platform before it was sold off to TD Ameritrade. FYI it takes the average person 3-5 years to become a consistently profitable trader.

I recently started a stock picking service where I text out the trades and the price target and the level we exit at for a trailing stop. I have two subscribers that I am using as test subjects so that I can hammer out the issues and start running a trading room on Discord or similar site next August. I text out trades that I am taking myself during the first 90 mins of the trading day.

Posted below are some trades we placed this morning. Calls on JNUG AG and WPM and USO/ XOP puts. Already up over 950 bucks total with the new JNUG WPM AG positions that were placed an hour after today's open. My account is up over 9K from the close yesterday. I just might beat my record of 10K in a day today )

Jay who has a $12,500 sized account for my service is only using 3K of the funds to trade with. He has only 4 open positions max at a time. Two days ago his total profit after just over 3 weeks of working with me is +$14,400. He grew that account more than 100% using minimal risk. Our win rate is over 50% and the average win is many times > than the average loss.

David is a manufacturing biz owner and also an entrepreneur like Jay. David took $75K and grew it into $800K starting in January of this year into early August. He just sent me funds for another month worth of service because even he finds value in my stock picks. On Monday of this week he got long NVDA and made 3K that day on my setup.

I am a swing trader/ intermediate term holding period and that means I hold as short as a day if the trade immediately goes against me or as long as a month. I buy at the money Call or Put options that expire 4-6 weeks out. I have a watch list of 250 of the most liquid options and trade only those tickers.

So yes, when I get kicked in the nutz I seek to inflict revenge in the best way possible. In this case it was using these trading profits to buy a CCC from pinsider adamross now that TBL is totally FACKed Man!

Oh, FYI I plan on entering and dominating the 2020 US Investing Championship! The trader in second place in the Futures/Options division is up only 20%...LMAO. The SP500 was up 20% back on 1JUL19.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20190801005196/en/United-States-Investing-Championship-Month-Results

I post these screenshots and you'all can follow us both on StockTwits under akpowpow (my account) and Jay_Stephen my subscriber.

IMG_2310 (resized).jpg

IMG_2311 (resized).PNG

IMG_2312 (resized).PNG

IMG_2313 (resized).PNG

IMG_2314 (resized).PNG

Had my first 10K day today! Thank you Mr. Market for your nice gross salary of $1,538.50 an hour during the 6.5 hr session today. On Friday I was up $8700, then yesterday(Monday) gave back $540 and now back to CrUsHiNg IT on FAT TUESDAY!

Even my mom listened to me and her buy n hold stocks are up $6K since Friday. Her portfolio is only $40K. She made 15% in three days! And ppl say you are killing it if you make an annual ROR of 7% and beat hedge fund managers who can't the SP500. LMFAO!

8700 (resized).png

1st 10K day (resized).jpg

Mama Happy 6K (resized).PNG

I keep a spreadsheet of 100 trade blocks divided up in 4 groups of 25 trade blocks. It calculates the number of wins, losses, profits and losses. Then it spits out an Expectancy % which is your edge quantified. If this number is negative then you have no edge. Expectancy tells you how much return you will see in the longer term based on a a dollar of risk. So 20% Expectancy % means that you would see on average a .20c return on $1.00 of risk.

It is calculated like this:

Say 40% win rate and 2.5 reward risk ratio. reward to risk ratio is average win / average loss.

.4 (win) x 2.5= 1.00 - .6(loss) =.4 or 40% Expectancy.

The other metric to compare different systems against each other is Profit Factor.

Profit Factor of 2 or greater is needed or in the intermediate term or longer the account will go to zero.
PF of 2 is considered outstanding and a PF of 3 is unheard of.

As far as option trading goes, I learned how to do calendar spreads and credit spreads. In the end I discovered a single breakout setup the yields a PF of 2.5 on a block of 100 trades in within the 25 trade blocks a PF of 3-5! I trade this by buying at the money or one strike out of the money Calls and Puts that expire 4-6 weeks out and no weekly expiration only the monthly contracts. I am an all or none trader to reduce my commissions. We exit when the price target is hit or when the trailing stop level is breached.

So I have something that is super easy to trade even for someone with no option knowledge.

Here is a sample text I sent out on 8/14/19 SLV 16 calls (SEPT). These contracts were purchased for .60c or $60 per contract and today it closed at 1.21 or $ 121 so these contracts are up 100% in a little over two weeks.

Also on average since 1 option contract controls 100 shares of the underlying unless price is moving in a rapid and large fashion, 1% +/- move would equal a 10% move. For example lets say AMD moved up 3% in a day then the option contract that was purchased with 5 weeks till expiration will be up roughly 30% that day.

You can always paper trade these setups and risk zero money. In a few weeks you would get the hang of it and that is all you need to know. How to buy contracts and then close out the trades. I buy $350-$500 worth of contracts per trade and hold up to 20 trades at once.

People often define risk as an increase in volatility and to the downside. Which is not the way I define risk. Using my standard position size of $350-$500 per trade my historical average loss is $100 and my average win is $250.00 This means my system generates 250% returns on risk. I know my setup which is a simple breakout/ breakdown strategy inside-out. I have the disciple to cut my losers quickly and deploy that capital into new setups off my watchlist.

Most traders do not respect the leverage that options possess and end up blowing up their accounts. There is a reason only 5% of traders consistently make money in the mkt no matter if it is going up, down, or sideways. Only 5% have a defined statistical edge and that makes what I do like being the casino. This is a zero sum game, where 90% consistently give away their money to that 5% group. Also anytime there is a great chance at making vast sums of money, the Powers That Be make it nearly impossible to take advantage of this situation by instituting tons of hurdles and roadblocks. Why is it that any Joe can open a brokerage account and start firing off trades within minutes? It is because they know only a small minority of investors will actually walk out of the casino with more than they walked in with. The rest are just gamblers! And I am grateful for their kind donations into my account

Here are two open trades I have on SLV. Notice the new trade has an 80% return in just a few days based on risk of 100.00 and the other is nearly up 5x. I am trading options using only $12,500 and each month in 2019 I am averaging anywhere from 20%-80% account growth. I am slowly increasing the size of the account so that eventually I will be trading with 100K.
IMG_2390 (resized).PNGIMG_2391 (resized).PNG

I believe everyone should watch the documentary Money as Debt. You will realize that there are no financial black swans since Central Banks are the ones pulling all the strings!

This is also a must watch PBS documentary called Trader. It was filmed in 1986 and Paul Tudor Jones did his best to buy up all the known VHS copies.
I have watched this PBS film at least a dozen times over the past few years. PTJ will get these copies on YouTube pulled, but so far this link has been working.

I have a liquidity indicator that goes back seventy years to 1950 and it has predicted all the bull and bear mkts 4-6 months ahead of time with zero false signals! If you watch MSM or follow Trump Tweets you would think the world was going to end any day now. In fact my indicator is showing me clear skies ahead.

I disagree with your War Games analogy in that the only winning play is not to play at all.

I have exposure to all six financial asset classes: Cash/ currencies trade against each other and also flow in and out of Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate, Commodities (including precious metals) and Derivatives(options).

Financial success is only one of the four pillars to a rich and meaningful life. Besides Money, there is Time, Health and Social Capital. I decided a long time ago I was going to be one of those few individuals who has all four of these en mass.

I started the retirement process and next year I will being collecting a military pension. I am a Commissioned Officer who has been detailed to the US Public Health Service/ Indian Health Service since 1999. I am going to become the first dentist in my graduating class to retire. I was told I would never make any money choosing this career path and that only way to riches was via private practice. Well, this COLA adjusted military pension with a survivor benefit that is also COLA adjusted and pays 55% of the retirement benefit after I pass will become my 11th passive income stream. This benefit alone is worth several million if it were an annuity that was paying a 3% ROR. During the month of August I made 2x more from cash flow/ asset appreciation / account growth (passive income) than my W-2 salary! I can truly stop trading my time for money! Yippee!

The great thing about money is that if you see each penny as a minion then you can get them to work for you 24/7 to generate even more wealth for you.. while you are sleeping! My classmates on the other hand are stuck on the treadmill as debt slaves and there is no end in sight for them! And I was supposed to be the one who would become a pauper for serving a population who has tremendous needs and in turn has shown me an abundance of gratitude for the care I have delivered over two decades. Now that's the real Win-Win in my book!

I think we see rate cuts which will cause the USD to tank vs other currencies and commodity bull mkt will begin with precious metals and miners leading the pack while the overall stock mkt goes higher as well at the same time. My signal to exit is to start closing positions in the metals once the Au:Ag ratio crosses 40. It would be nice if this dropped to 30 or < )

Just in case ppl are wondering what sector is leading the pack YTD. The top 4 are made of metal!

Screenshot_2019-09-03 Futures Performance (resized).png

Okay sorry I should have said, "Which Futures sector is leading the pack?"

But, yeah... SPY and QQQs are fun n all. But I love Momo trading! Look at my P/L from the previous week. Now we are up over SPX 2950 and both stock mkt and metals will run higher together. Notice how $DXY was a text book pump n dump!

I present Roku for your viewing pleasure: but first a little background. Bought SEP 144s last Thursday, then SEP 150s on Friday and finally OCT 165s on Monday. Cashed out with total profit of $4380. On these larger positions I was risking 200.00 per trade vs my normal 100.00 4380/600 =7.30x or a 730% reward : risk ratio.

IMG_2428 (resized).PNG

after (resized).png

before (resized).png

sold (resized).png

Poor poor Jeremy always playing the victim role. I enjoyed reading some of your previous posts here on Pinside! As far as screenshots go, how about a link to the 2020 US Investing Championships? Scroll down to the bottom for the January results and you will see yours truly listed in the Stock Options division (Enhanced Growth). I had a 29% month in January and as of the close yesterday my account is up 50% YTD! This is a verified contest where I send in my broker statements. Past winners happen to be trading legends like Paul Tudor Jones.

https://financial-competitions.com/

Here is last year's Market Watch article. My name will appear in this year's press release.

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/united-states-investing-championship-first-month-results-2019-02-14

I am glad you were honest about losing $2K with me and not the entire $3K you started with. There is no way to make money when you are paying insane broker commissions in Canada. But, if you remember the text messages I sent ya, I told you that my main momentum indicator had divergence starting on Oct 22nd and this lasted for 5 weeks. I did not close out my trades because I truly believed the market would rollover. I "TIMED" the market perfectly with my long only 401K account; picking bottoms and selling tops throughout 2019. So, I had no reason to think this indicator would lead me astray. I then explained how I found another momentum indicator to act as a filter since it did not show the same divergence during that Oct- Nov period.

I kept you in the trading room for free so that you could see me recover all those losses. Not only did I recover, I made 100% return on that draw down! Most ppl would have quit and given up after such a bad F- up in front of paying customers! Once I proved my point I booted you out of the room when you started asking for your 3K back! No body is capable of escaping a draw down period. That was mine for 2019 and it's unfortunate you got caught in it. This was the best thing to happen to me. It prepared me to be much more disciplined with cutting my losers when the stops are hit, no questions asked.

Well, I suppose it is possible that I blowup my account if I totally deviated my from entire trading system/ plan. So for your entertainment I will post the monthly results of this year long contest, win, lose, or draw.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200212005831/en/United-States-Investing-Championship-2020-Month-Results

https://financial-competitions.com/

My options account in January +29%
February +158.7%
Total +187.7% at the end of February.

ENHANCED GROWTH DIVISION (Futures and/or options)

Adrian Palmer, DMD + 187.7%

Nick Marino + 125.5%

Minh Le + 64.6%

Well you can go here (link below) and click the small font "Standings" on the lower left side of the screen and see the December results which is the YTD total. In dollar terms I generated 150K total from both the stock and the options accounts that were entered in this contest. As of the close on Friday (yesterday) I am up 335K YTD. My TBL was finally delivered yesterday as well ... so yeah life is Fackin' Goood Man!

https://financial-competitions.com/blog-1

Adrian Palmer, DMD

Here are some screenshots I posted on StockTwits. My biggest one day account change on 2/8/21 of close to 120K btw the two trading accounts combined.

70K (resized).png

49K (resized).png

ST post (resized).png

AK POW POW (resized).jpg

Here’s a post on stock twits regarding RIOT puts and using volume profile to find the hidden support levels.

A073CD7D-1659-4E6D-BB1E-F86E8964B950 (resized).png

D197FF42-AFB9-455B-9271-D08AC2ABE79A (resized).png

E4442BD3-C022-4728-933B-D218A1B9B175 (resized).png

He was thinking of selling two days before the 40 handle was hit

/BTC futures up nicely! Buying MAY21 RIOT & MARA at the money calls and shares on the open. QQQ SPY etc set to rip higher this week! Ended up buying the April16 contracts since the May's were not liquid.

Not sure why they repriced riot based on last sale when I have less shares now vs earlier this month when I sold. Oh well still up a decent amount today overall. 20K n growing!! Now at 27.5K

B7F857C3-CECA-424D-A605-39022F92E06B (resized).jpegBA51CA79-6EBD-412A-B882-DB0B3533E162 (resized).jpeg

31K ...keep climbing!! And yes buy MARA RIOT n hodl. If both retest recent all time highs that’s a 105K profit! Now this is a stimulus package worth receiving!

Not a bad day at plus $37,285

5E1441C7-CBF8-481F-93EF-146A66BCEA28 (resized).jpeg

pasted_image (resized).png

I ❤️ trading breakouts / breakdowns with option leverage!

FA2A8DCD-23F0-4DE9-ABF4-52C5A9A7A990 (resized).png

I exit if we get a close on or under the 4 ema on the daily chart. If intraday it slashes through that level I instantly sell. My other rule is to close out positions that have gone sideways for three days in a row. I can reenter the trade if the previous high is taken out, or the previous low is broken if I am going short using puts.

By sticking to my single breakout/ breakdown chart pattern and using price targets that are based on the volume profile chart with proper risk management, it is highly unlikely I will blowup my account. Been there, done that! Made back 6 figure losses (2012, 2015-2018) and more last year in the trading contest. 2019 I was breakeven. 2020 did 150K. This year I am up over 375K YTD thanks to MARA and RIOT.

I forgot to mention that I at the end of each month I transfer all of the profits out of the trading account to prevent me from giving any of that money back to the mkt. I reset the account to the base level I started the year with.

I rely on a couple of momentum indicators to time the change in market direction and during the fall of 2019 these led me astray with massive divergence. You did follow my directions which meant you held onto these trades since I had not texted a message to sell they positions. I dissolved the trading group soon after your departure and now I only collaborate with the two friends who helped found this trading club.

I hired a trading coach and worked with Scott once a week screen sharing on Skype for 3.5 years. So yes, almost earned a bachelors degree!

Premkt looking good. Matches my post earlier this week about SPY QQQ setting up to rip higher.

AF0CB620-3A4A-4C6B-9C3A-CBB61BF2E2B8 (resized).png

Here are some links to the most influential and relevant information I have found in terms of trading. PTJ bought up all the VHS copies of this PBS documentary and destroyed them. Lucky for us this vid keeps getting re-uploaded on YT after he has it removed.

Larry Hite is a total badass!

Books: search for the title with PDF and download for free.

How to Trade in Stocks - Jesse Livermore

How I made 2M in the Stock Mkt - Darvas

Secrets to profiting in bull and bear markets - Stan Weinstein

Okay, that's all folks! I will leave you in peace. Hope at least one of you Pinsiders dedicates their life to trading and makes tons of FU money!

I didn't want to pay AMZN 10.00 the authors/ publishers / families are only missing out on a few bucks by the time Jeffery gets his cut.

Oh if it makes you feel any better last month I bought a very nice 1st edition copy of How to Trade in Stocks for $7K from a collectables book dealer in NY. On ebay I picked up Ticker Magazine vol 1 for $1600 using the best offer feature. My wife thought I was nutz... I said these two men are the reason for my success! It is my way of paying homage to a couple of GOATs. What else are we going to blow this FU money on? Hookers n Blow!?! LOL.

63735343028--99ADA349-64A9-4447-9BB6-BCF4F34C1CF1 (resized).jpg

Ticker Mag 1600 (resized).png

I bought a 2021 Subie Outback Limited directly from the factory in September. Did the same thing for my wife, but she wanted all the upgrades. I paid mine off in February and I wrote a check for hers at the dealership two weeks ago. They were trying to get me to finance this purchase at 0%. I said no thanks, I am trying to spend this money as fast as I can while it still has some purchasing power left!

I already used other people’s money to make more money by pulling out 84K from a rental property in fall of 2018. I’ve used the home equity loan along with my own money to fund my trading accounts! At this point I don’t need over 400-500k to trade with. That’s why I passed up their offer.

Here’s today’s shitty returns! Still up 1700 or $260/ hr x 6.5 hrs
4F964BA8-922F-4B4F-80DE-0B7594DE1EF6 (resized).jpegCDAD1B99-3475-4AC8-8939-EAB821E0B3C6 (resized).png

Forgot mkt closed for Good Friday
Damn Easter Bunny Now that’s literally a down day IMO

4 day trading week ended up +48,350 at 12,087/ day or 1860/ hr (6.5hrs per day)

My mom’s be making bank!

74B260F6-CDC3-4C17-8D83-713C1C5E69D9 (resized).png