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Quoted from topkat:amzn missed by 500 m and the total was 56+ billion.. I dont see how thats bad enough for this sell off
Its was priced for perfection
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1 year later
Crazy to think that even now we could close up 1000 points or down 1000 points.. This market is scary!
Quoted from cait001:we need to talk percentages instead of points. 1000 points in a 28k market means way different than 1000 points in a 17k market!
I'm reminded of places that publish "sunshine lists" of people that make over 100k, but then never adjusted for inflation over 2 decades. *facepalm*
True, but a 5% gain in one day, on no news that I can find is still pretty big!
Quoted from rai:We just had two of the highest point gain days in history between 4-5% gain in two of the last 3 days. If people were waiting for a sign to buy they may have already missed it. Whereas with me, I never sold any and didn't have to time when to get back in.
Look back to the last 5 days. We also had some of the biggest down days in the history of the market.
Quoted from CrazyLevi:Bloodbath this morning.
Apple down to 270.
When am I supposed to buy it again?
Not yet!
2394CB1A-F9D2-4EB5-8360-617EB81C56B6 (resized).pngQuoted from Trekkie1978:Bye...good luck everyone. I’m out of here.
I made it clear that I’m not dealing with losers.
I am sorry to hear that you are bailing on this thread, i have very much enjoyed seeing your trades. I appreciate how you post winning and losing trades, i hope you take a break for a bit and then get back in here to talk about the markets.
Quoted from mcluvin:I guess I would just say take a look at the last 10 years and how it got where it is, then ask yourself how far can it fall
It can’t go below zero 
Quoted from DBLM:Everybody has their own investment profile. In 2008, we nuked early, rebought near the lows, and rode the market all the way back up. By the point that we got to my exit point, I was up much more significantly than just getting back flat. I have now very significant powder to re-enter where I like, and buying stocks at a great discount to where we are now. This strategy is not for everybody, but is one that my financial team and I came to and I am fine with it. To answer jackd104 point, the strategy is to buy much lower than where I am now, and have better leverage. On paper, it is a loss, but I am betting that I will make more money on the ride back up to offset the loss.
This is not a fear thing at all, to address phil-lee. This is a cold and calculated strategy. In talking with my team and based upon the information that came out today, this epidemic is going to last 8-12 weeks or longer. With businesses shutting down, the market is more than likely going down a factor from here.
Again, everybody's circumstances are different. I am early 40s, so have plenty of time until retirement. I have considerable resources, so when I move in, I can and do so in a big way. I am also an active trader, and pay active attention to the market. My goal is not to time the market for the bottom, but to reenter on the way down and ride it back up.
Good luck to all.
My 401k was 100% bonds when this hit as I felt the market was overvalued and I wanted less risk as I have health issues. I have now started moving bonds to equities in my 401k (now 80% bonds 20% equities) I have bought as the market has fallen. My goal is to be mostly in stocks in the next few weeks, I am not trying to time the bottom but I think the market is going lower. I will be tempted to go all in between Dow 16k to 18k and at that point I’m not going to look at it anymore as I have 12 to 14 years before I can retire.
If the S&P hits 1600 it will be hard to resist rotating my 401k from bonds to stock funds. I was 90% bonds when all this started (Dow 29,000 +) now I’m 75% bonds 25% stock funds.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/devilish-math-would-bring-market-down-another-40-11584540730
3383EE8C-9028-4AFA-B763-D95A2A88F583 (resized).jpeg 1 week later
Quoted from Rondogg:So you're suggesting that Fidelity can take as long as 7 days to process a trade order? I've worked with hundreds of 401k Plans and, unless I'm dealing with some privately held stock I've never heard of that. Your best bet is to call their Call Center and ask specifically about how long it takes to place a trade.
My 401k is they fidelity and if I move from one investment to another, as long as the order goes thru before the close it happens same day.
Quoted from kpg:I had bought the April 50/57 call spread yesterday to sell today on a bigger move
I don't have a play on VXX right now set up, but the IV is so pumped on them selling spreads and having time decay on your side would be the better play, especially with the weekend coming you can take advantage of that extra Theta. But I'm out of VXX for now.
I wish there was a translate button on Pinside so I could understand this, unfortunately it’s way over my head. 
Quoted from kpg:Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.
I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.
I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.
You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.
My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.
You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today
Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
[quoted image][quoted image]
Wow! I wish you had a live webcam and could explain your trades as you make them 
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:Our school year is done for the year. Next grade in Fall.
I think we are the same here, sad for all the seniors.. not even sure they will have graduation ceremonies in June.
Quoted from kpg:Funny you say that, many years ago I used to run a stock trading service and hosted a live chat room, put out daily training videos, and real time trading alerts.
My site/service was actually rated #1 and #2 for a couple of years on Investimonials. Hell, maybe even some people here were my clients hahah! Now that would be funny.
This was my newsletter:
https://investimonials.com/newsletters/reviews-prophet-alerts.aspx
Ultimately even though I had several hundred active users at any given time, it became way too stressful to make it worth my time.
I'd get a ton of emails, many people who didn't follow directions even though you gave them clear and cut instructions and they'd somehow still screw up the trade.
Id send an alert like "Buy AAPL at $135.25" then the next day, "Sell AAPL $143.73" (yep back then that was AAPLs price at the time, PRE SPLIT lol
So many people would lock in the profit and move along...
Then I'd get that one person... "Hey Kris, I decided to hold on and let it ride thinking it would go up more and didn't sell. Now they released their earnings and are down to $119/share. What should I do? I think I need to cancel because I lost a lot of money"
Things like that made me just keep all my stuff to myself and just trade on my own.. and I guess post here on this forum about stocks lol.
I'm also on Instagram if anyone wants to follow me, but it's mostly my car hobby page so you may not care haha
@xkpgx
Dang I wish you were still doing your newsletter! I am trying to figure out when to switch 75% of my 401k from bonds to a stock fund in my fidelity retirement account. If we retest the 18,000 level I think I will make the move from bonds to stocks and just stop looking at it, with the way my health has been my wife will probably be spending the someday anyway.
Quoted from marlboroman:I've been fooling around with banks the last 7-8 trading days, pulled out and have cash on the side but couldn't resist the action on Friday and bought marijuana shares... Aurora Cannabis ACB. I also noticed a little segment on CNBC about weed stocks, anyone have opinions on this young industry ?
CNBC said the Weed stock rally was caused by people in US and Canada stockpiling weed for self quarantining.
Quoted from kpg:Like I said in my initial post there's so many variables it's crazy. So much.
But I did mention I'm selling Vertical Call spreads, as well as selling Vertical Put spreads
So by default, there's two legs executed at the same time, example, with AAPL last week:
When it tanked on the open I sold:
Vertical Put Spread on Weekly March 27 expiration
Sold the $235 Out of the money Puts for $0.37
Bought the $225 Out of the money Puts for $0.09
Net credit back to my account of $0.28
I sold 100 contracts of that spread and others that day. That means I risked $100,000 to make $2,800.
Now that's where people say holy hell! That's crazy! So dumb. And they are right . Why? Because they don't know how it works and it would be dumb if you don't know what your doing.
But my risk to lose that trade was for AAPL to collapse under $235/share by end of the trading day. If anyone knows AAPL, that would be a huge fall from it's low of the day which was around $248 or so when I sold those puts.
It was worth me putting up the capital to bet against AAPL closing over $235, which it did.
So then it went from $248 where I sold the vertical put spread and collected a nice premium due to a spike in Implied Volatility, then when it ripped back to $252 and $254 I did the opposite and sold 50 contracts of Weekly March 27 $270/275 strikes but CALLS instead of Puts. Sold the $270s and bought the $275s... Credit of $0.22 to me. If anyone has heard of an Iron Condor spread strategy I guess it's somewhat similar, but normal Iron Condors suck.. this is just a more optimized way of doing one.
All expired worthless so I keep the credit.
Yes you need a relatively large account to make decent money
Yes I could have lost in order to make $5875 on those trades Friday:
$136,000
BUT
Keep in mind. AAPL would have either had to close under $235 or over $270
Also, had I seen something to see id be wrong I'd close them out quickly to minimize my loss, usually when it's 50% of what I'm expecting to make. If I'm in the red $2500 already, I'm out. Period.
Both of which seemed impossible to me given the market resistance levels I've shown here on the charts I've posted.
A lot goes into it. It's not for the faint of heart and I don't recommend anyone doing this style of trading unless you know what you're doing. It's a style large hedge funds and firms use, but just at a smaller level.
Damn! 
Quoted from kpg:Ask yourself this.. if you have a long term strategy, do you think the restaurant sector will recover? Namely, the ones that were strong financially and fundamentally pre-virus?
If so, and you think restaurants will survive, take that money out of those index options and find your favorite restaurant industry stocks and buy on large pullbacks. IMO, they will outperform any index fund by 300-400% in the next 12-24 months.
What are your favorite restaurant stocks?
Quoted from kpg:RRGB
DRI
BLMN
CBRL
STKS
DENN
PFGC
PLAY
RUTH
DNKN
JACK
EAT
Honorable mentions, for long term value investors as they are still in the Hospitality industry and affected:
CNK
CCL
RCL
VAC
HGV
MAR
WYNN
LVS
MGM
Note I am not saying start buying everything and get all in tomorrow, do your own due diligence, consult a financial advisor, etc. and determine how you should allocate your funds and to each one.
But IMO these will all bounce back when this shit is over... maybe not instantly... but over time they should.
Thanks! For now I’m just going to add them to my watch list.
Quoted from Atari_Daze:Funny, my kid (he is 20) sold some things and picked some BA up today. At his age he is in for the long game anyway.
I am thinking of buying 100 shares BA here in my retirement account, i believe they will come out ok of this but it will take time.
Quoted from DBLM:Here is the watchlist of stocks that I am looking at now. Any thoughts?
Apple
Microsoft
Raytheon
Boeing
McDonalds
Dollar General
Mastercard
I would love to pick up some Apple, but I’m wanting to jump in around $200.. not sure if she will go that low.
Quoted from thedarkknight77:Agreed!! Zero interest rates and the Fed pumping trillions into the market is what is keeping this market up. Sadly, investing has never been more pathetic. Valuations are way too high vs. historical norms........but where else are you going to put your money? We are forever #$@& because the federal govt. thinks it’s their job to keep the market propped up........This is no free market. Zero interest rates create the worst economic behaviors. The cost of borrowing Money should never be free!
I wish I could give this post more than one thumbs up!
Quoted from catboxer:I feel like I was just left standing at the station with a bag of cash in my hand.
We will retest the lows.. be patient.
Quoted from Rondogg:The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.
Yep, it doesn’t make sense.. this correction doesn’t even seem as bad as the January 2019 correction... some disconnect here for sure!
It seems like the market is ignoring very bad news and almost desperate to rally on literally anything. I will leave the 75% of my 401k in cash for now as I am not buying anything at these levels.
https://apple.news/Ak7ZcfI92SluZsbrXZqNx5Q
“ U.S. stocks were rising on Wednesday, a day after the Dow and S&P 500 staged their biggest reversals since the 2008 financial crisis, as investors hoped that the U.S. could roll back containment measures put in place to fight the COVID-19 pandemic sooner than expected.
The buoyant sentiment in stocks also may have reflected the announcement that Bernie Sanders had suspended his campaign for the U.S. presidency.”
LMaO yep things sure are bullish (10 million people unemployed) 
929F1FE8-9A7C-4F81-8386-186AC81776A4 (resized).jpegQuoted from loneacer:People have been screaming the market should be lower for 5500 DOW points so far. The market does what it wants to do, not what we think it should do.
We will see what happens
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp
Quoted from Pecos:I have been lurking here for a while now. You've got a good thread here! I enjoy and appreciate all of the information posted, especially by kpg, since I'm not a technical analyst. I am a fundamental analyst and I want to share what I have learned about CoVid-19 with you:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/37#post-5546370
My background is in IT as a developer and an analyst. I traded the market in the late 90's and got out in 2000. I just recently got back in as my research told me that with the markets being so 'frothy', as my friend so quaintly said, this was the opportunity of a lifetime.
If you want to have an idea what is in store for the United States, keep an eye on the Eastern Asian countries and a few European nations as they try to reopen their economies.
If you have any questions about CoVid-19, I will be glad to try to answer them as honestly and accurately as I can. Know your enemy!
Damn, very informative post on Covid virus, you have definitely done your homework!
What I can’t wrap my head around is that we are literally in a National Emergency but it feels like the markets sold off harder at the beginning of 2019.. still trying to figure out what makes this shit tick.. I am guessing it is unknowable.
I bailed on OXY today, bought at $13.30 and sold at $17.91.. I will look to rebuy later.. thanks for the tip KPG
Not sure about oil, but I think reality sets in Monday on how devastating this shutdown is going to be for the economy.
Dow 20K +- 500 by Friday IMHO
Quoted from Methos:Movie theaters are going the way of the horse and carriage.
Agreed, in the days of cheap 70” 4K TV’s and killer sound systems who want to go to the theatre and pay $25.00 for popcorn and a soda.. only to have the back of your seat kicked repeatedly for 2 hours.
Quoted from kpg:Correct.
Airline stocks ripping in after hours on some good news.
Hope some of you guys caught this move...
It seems that it’s all about government bailouts at this point, it really doesn’t matter what industry it is.. very sad! I guess our grandkids can figure out how to pay for all of this.
Quoted from kpg:Funny how the current guy running the country bashed the previous guy running the country for this same exact thing... and now he gets full support from the people that opposed it as well.
I don't want to get political in here so I wont, but it's funny how it all works. Here we are, more bailouts and debt.. and taxpayer money from us, the little guys, bailing out the big corporations. Insane.
If they keep printing cash at this rate it won’t end well! It will take a wheelbarrow load of money to buy a loaf of bread.
Kind of an interesting article
https://apple.news/AC_RhOMIySgGs-TXfF2Wm1Q
6AD67277-1DD1-4024-98D1-1A776A4DD75D (resized).jpegQuoted from cottonm4:Oil:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/business/oil-prices-us-production/index.html
Gas is $1.39 here today. I have driven approx. 175 miles in a month. Cheap gas and I can't use it. 70 miles of that 175 was to go to girlfriend's and pick up my dog. Now it is the grocery store and the dog park. That's it.
Gas is $2.59 here 
Quoted from PDX-Mike:Anybody see the wild ride with LTRPB today? Was up well over 2000% from opening today at one point.
Reverse split?
Quoted from iceman44:Something to ponder for down the road.
As economies build up massive debt on top of debt due to the virus the only way out will be to inflate their way out.
Paying back all that debt in dollars or currency that is worth a lot less than when originally borrowed. Bad for lenders
Like musical chairs, Global currency devaluations are coming down the road like a pandemic
So when is the time to buy gold?
OXY at $12.90 now 
Edit.. I found the reason for today’s OXY sell off, any thoughts on this KPG.. are you thinking wait for retest of lies or just avoid it?
https://apple.news/ApR_DMiVhR5uugQ1Wf9rgaQ
BB438B17-A1BB-40DA-B86D-23FB991E7FF0 (resized).jpegQuoted from Zablon:In additional news, stimulus funding for small businesses is already out of money. Anyone get in on that? I'm betting we don't see any sort of list that shows where that money went.
Also, why exactly are retired people on SS getting stimulus checks? They aren't out any more money than usual, and they have to pay it back at the end of the year anyway. Doesn't make sense to me.
I heard that professional gamblers in Vegas will be getting stimulus checks 
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4D7836F8-7DB0-11EA-B298-E6606EABF547
F27A7690-2AEB-42A1-BFB0-6F19AC9A8772 (resized).jpegWowza TZA down over 7.00 after hours! What is the news? APPL trading at $295 in AH at this rate it will be back to its highs by Monday (even though they have sold a phone in a month)
Quoted from greenhornet:Gilead Pours Cold Water On Report That Sent Market Soaring: "Anecdotal Reports With No Statistical Power"
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power
Wow if this happened people need to go to jail!!
“ it felt like one or more hedge funds would seek to manipulate public sentiment - and the market - and get out of an underwater position.
They did just that at 430pm today when the low profile Statnews published a report by Adam Feuerstein, best known for doing the bidding of one or more hedge fund clients”
Quoted from cottonm4:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/will-you-have-to-pay-back-the-coronavirus-stimulus-check.html
The stimulus checks are not taxable income. If you are single and make less than $75K you are going to get $1200.00. Yours to keep and spend as you see fit.
" The checks — which are worth $1,200 for individuals earning up to $75,000 and $2,400 for couples earning up to $150,000, plus $500 for dependents under 17 — are structured as refundable tax credits. That is why even people who do not typically file tax returns qualify for these payments, according to the Tax Foundation, an independent think tank.
OT: do they go off your 2018 or 2019 earnings?
Quoted from iceman44:Here is your Disney answer.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337735-1966-buffett-dej-vu-you-pay-for-disney-rest-is-free
Shopify SHOP. "Every day is like Black Friday levels"
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3561757-shopify-continues-hot-run
Buffett is like Biff from Back to the future when he took a sports Almanac back in time, the guy can’t lose!
17B15546-21EB-49BD-8683-675B8CEBE2F6 (resized).jpegQuoted from SantaEatsCheese:Oil futures crashed a third overnight... A barrel of oil is now... about $11. I am 33 years old. In my entire life oil has only been cheaper than that about 6 months. Going to be an interesting day on the market. What happens when the demand for oil is so low there is no place to store it?
Good thing I bought OXY week before last at $15 a share. Going to be holding onto that one for a little while I expect.[quoted image]
Gas is still $2.49 here in Oregon 
I rebought my small position in OXY this morning.
Quoted from loneacer:It got down to a penny...
And now negative 8.61 a barrel. Crazy.
How is that even possible?
Quoted from D-Gottlieb:With oil being this low, why is gas in CA still so expensive?
Taxes 
Oregon is the same way.
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:With oil tanking.....see what i did there?
Ive been watching railroad stocks this past month. Lower fuel cost and demand for supply chain.....
What's the consensus?
Also keeping an eye on the mouse, DIS. Thinking in about a week to two, this could hit $90 a share again.
It may hit low 80’s
Quoted from Spyderturbo007:Don’t say that. My dumbass bought some yesterday. I suck at this stock thing.
Are we talking a couple hundred or a couple thousand shares?
Quoted from Spyderturbo007:Only 200 shares. I thought of buying 200 more. I’m trying to stay as liquid as possible right now, but I know it’s a buying opportunity. I’m trying to do a little if I can.
My wife got laid off 4 weeks ago and my side business has ground to a halt. My day job + savings is keeping us a float. I’m just trying to hold onto cash because of the uncertainty.
But on the other hand, I don’t want to be left in the dust if things are on sale. I kicked my 401k up 5% more when this started and thought buying a little stock
I like OXY here a lot better than USO, I don’t really understand USO, but I have to assume it will bounce as oil rebounds.. and we know at some point oil will rebound.
USO bouncing now off days low of $2.31 up to $3.07
On a side note I would like to have a little BA in my retirement account.. the question is when to pull the trigger on it.. I’m looking at long term 5 to 10 year time frame.
I can’t wrap my head around USO! Why would anyone ever buy it? It seems like you lose no matter what.
I think I figured out was caused the drop.. crazy we rallied 1000 points on news of hope for this drug and now we sell off for one minute after the news breaks that it failed.
https://apple.news/AARuMhfvnSPiw8hK03qY7Jg
8C9AA1D3-78FF-4ED0-A420-5A413DB6EE7E (resized).jpeg
Edit: I don’t buy this, the stock was tanking and taking the market with it so they released news that the drug might still be helpful. 
https://apple.news/A5NOdXrSPRa-80SmsmJ5l6g
Quoted from iceman44:5 pages of notes from conference call I’m going to summarize for my clients
Bottom line, “follow the fed”
Yes the fed can fix it all if it so chooses and decides to go “all in” into the equity markets
Don’t take my word for it. El Erian big picture
I have to agree Ice, the bulls have the advantage as long as the Fed has their printing press running and zero interest rates. It’s like the bears are playing against the house in Vegas, the chips are stacked against them.
The Fed can’t hold this market up forever and the longer they try the worse the fall will be when it happens, as they will be out of ammunition to stop it.
Quoted from usandthem:Every time that you think that they're out of ammo, they come up with something else though. Does their ammo actually have limitations?
I guess we are gunna find out.. another 1/2 Trillion stimulus today alone.
Can someone explain Tesla to me? I thought they were losing money but the stock seems to go up $$50 to $100 per day.
Quoted from loren3233:I just saw this is coming tomorrow, heads up to anyone
'United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) has announced a 1-for-8 reverse split effective Wednesday, April 29, meaning shareholders will receive one share of (new) USO common stock for every eight shares they currently own. The stock price will increase to eight times its value at the April 28 close, so shareholder net positions at market open April 29 will be the same as before the split, plus or minus market movements. The deliverable on USO options contracts will be 12.5 shares instead of 100.'
USO is a scam, junk stock IMHO! I wonder how many reverse splits they have done in the last 10 years?
Quoted from loren3233:I have never invested in USO stock, I know some here have so I was giving them a heads up on this news. Maybe that was the wrong idea.
Not all all, I think everyone here including me appreciates news like this. My reply to your post about USO is just my feelings about it, a lot of retail investors get burned on this stock because they think they are investing in oil at a low price right now only to find out that that they were wrong.. and then they lose $$
LMAO! Google is up $104.00 per share after hours because their earnings were not as bad as expected.
Quoted from taz:I know, it's crazy! As I type this Boeing is up about 6% after announcing that they'd burned through $4.3B in cash last quarter and their flawed commercial airliner recertification has been pushed back to late Summer. Airlines are cancelling orders, Boeing's cutting staff, and their primary airliner's future just slid further into regulatory purgatory, meanwhile in upside down world their stock climbs in value.
Disney continues to climb too while most of their assets are closed down. I guess it's all in anticipation of a return to more normal conditions, but it's all too rich for my blood right now. Home sales also crashed 21% in March. I've been wrong on every instinct I've had for the past 5 weeks. Still, I sense a big correction is inevitable in the not too distant future, perhaps after next quarter losses arrive based on 3 months in this quagmire instead of only 1 month. Maybe that instinct will be wrong too, like all of my others and upside down world is the new normal.
I am 100% with you on this, my 401k is 30% equities and 70% cash. I was not wrong on how devastating this has been for the economy, I was wrong about the fact that all bad news would be seen as good news.. shit earnings and no forward guidance.. “it’s priced in”
Either way to me it is far too dangerous and stupid to go long now. I’m sitting on 2 brain tumors and the last thing I need to do is make a bad decision on my wife and daughters future.
Quoted from cdnpinballer:Tesla’s aren’t cheap cars here since they did away with green incentive programs so who is going to buy them in a depressed economy??
Maybe it’s because China is somewhat back online and raw materials are cheaper....?
Makes me wonder how Ford will survive, didn’t they lose like 5 Billion last year?
Looks like AMZN shit the bed, was down $160.00 per share after hours... Let see what Apple does here in a few minutes.
Quoted from mattosborn:AMZN hovered around $1800 for most of last year. Now it has soared up to a peak of $2475, gaining over $100 today alone. In after hours trading it has basically lost the day's gain. And your assessment is that it "shit the bed"? I'm starting to think this stock market thing is not for you....
Sorry if my assessment and language offended you, I was being dramatic.
IMHO with a PE of something like 85 AMZN is priced for perfection.. let’s see what happens in the next few trading days.. Nas futures are already down 165.. what goes up a hundred points per day can go down 100 points a day.
From AMZN earnings release:
“The boom in sales, 26% higher than the same time last year, came at a cost, as profit fell 29% from a year earlier to $2.5bn. And the company said there was more spending to come.”
Quoted from DBLM:Here are the positions that I have taken over the past two weeks, with about half of them coming yesterday. I love tech stocks but am not touching them at these levels. I don't think this market is running away from anybody at this time so I have been waiting until after earnings for some. For what it is worth, these purchases represent quarter to half positions, with the thought that depending upon performance I can average up or down.
BA
DAL
UAL
MCD
SBUX
COST
CNTY
LVS
I have been watching BA like a hawk! It’s down almost 75% from its highs. I know demand is down for new aircraft but over the long haul demand will come back. I think BA might be a good long term buy and hold if you bought in the $120 to $135 range.. anyone else have thoughts on BA?
Quoted from pinballjah:You could sell the Jan 2021 puts for $30? If it goes down, cuts your cost down to $103.70. If it goes up, you make $30 a share. Another strategy.
I wish I understood options well enough to do something like that.
Lucky for me I don’t have to worry about losing much $$.. most of you probably have more in your cars ashtray than my net worth 
Dang!
https://apple.news/ARNmSKUfdRASmwlht_z0X7A
D433AE24-9684-4E3B-BF1A-87894E11CD1C (resized).pngMind boggling to think that the economy has been shut down for nearly 2 months, we have 30+ million people unemployed and the Nasdaq is only down 1% for the year.
The Fed is in a helicopter hovering over Wall Street shoveling cash at anything and everything!
Quoted from Methos:It isn't shut down.
It is here!
Quoted from cottonm4:Who wants to buy some government bonds?
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-says-its-already-borrowed-half-of-3-trillion-it-needs-for-coronavirus-relief-as-it-lays-out-borrowing-plan-2020-05-06?mod=home-page
"Treasury shifts to longer-term debt offerings, including $20 billion in new 20-year bonds, to finance ballooning deficit"
*** " U.S. Treasury will sell 20-year bonds for the first time..."
3-year T-notes will yield 0.247%
10-year notes will yield 0.721%
30 year bonds will yield 1.419%
" The department will auction $42 billion in 3-year Treasury notes TMUBMUSD03Y, 0.247% on May 11 and $32 billion in 10-year notes TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.721% on May 12. The government will also sell $22 billion in 30-year bonds TMUBMUSD30Y, 1.419% on May 13."
I doubt the govt. will ever let rates rise very much from these levels. If it allowed rates to rise it would never be able to pay it all back. So, the economy will inflate and inflation will be the next thing coming and the govt. will pay it back with inflated dollars. Cash will be worth nothing. But 1.419% on a 30 year is not worth much either.
It was not all that long ago that 30 year bonds were not being issued anymore.
We are so in hock.
Anyone buying gold here?
Quoted from Methos:You might want to shift your perspective to look at the bigger picture instead of short term. The economy has slowed, but it hasn't "shut down". Factories and construction and retail are still taking place, especially construction which has tamped up. Big difference between slow down and shut down.
As far as Disney, plans are underway to reopen and furloughs have been made for now.
Honestly i really only have my retirement account which is 50% cash right now, I don’t have cash to be buying and selling stocks except very small positions in cheap stocks (see STKS ect) I have always been fascinated with how the market trades and even though I am not an active trader I watch it everyday.. kind of pathetic really 
Quoted from swampfire:Yes, I’m gradually increasing my positions until I’m at 7%.
Are you buying GLD ETF or?
Quoted from swampfire:Yeah, just GLD for now. I may convert to physical at some point.
Anyone have thoughts on PHYS for
a gold play?
KPG was right about that resistance at Dow 23,700.. I hope he stops soon to give us his thoughts on current market action.
Decent article, basically confirms what we already know
https://apple.news/A6VufKtXZQmiSFpYq3BOGzg
7BBA2637-B1A3-420D-9C03-6E6DB660318E (resized).pngQuoted from thedarkknight77:I read it and it’s a complete bunch of BS! The govt. is holding the market up and using our tax payer money to do it! Giving bailouts to debt ridden, worthless companies, along with buying junk bonds! What is the difference between a republican and Democrat????...........There is none, they both talk too much and spend like drunkin sailors!
I don’t disagree with you at all, but the talking heads always have to have a reason why the market does what it does.. even if it’s BS.. which is most of the time!
Quoted from Mike_J:There no longer seems to be a discussion of stock trades here in the “Stock Market Traders” thread. It is more of a place to mope when the market rises while a strange euphoria emerges, complete with multiple posts, articles and charts, when the market is plunging.
Back on topic, was anyone fortunate enough to be long on Seattle Genetics? That must have been a nice ride.
Actually what I am “moping” about is the fact the fed reserve is printing money to prop the stock market up and my grandchildren will be the ones paying it back.
My 401k is now positive for the year, it’s incredible!
On a side note it feels like the market is being driven by a handful of Tech stocks.. Apple, Amazon, google ect.. I think there are still bargains out there but it feels risky to jump into some of those sectors.. Airlines, Oil, MGM/LVS ect
Quoted from iceman44:It’s been a great 40 days!
AAPL, SHOP, TTD, OKTA, TWLO, V, PYPL, AYX EPD, MELI etc etc etc
The technology bull market is full steam ahead. Why fight it? Bottoms up, forget indexes
I’m looking to build my stocks “in the ditch” model that will ultimately reach the destination
JPM, CCL, TJX, BA, EPD, DIS for starters
Banking on a boom boom 2021
I’m still watching BA, if they get the 737 approval the stock could really take off! It has really been left behind in this rally.
Quoted from thedarkknight77:I bought back into Teva today at the low, 20K shares. Other than that I am 87% cash and sleeping like a baby in this over priced market. Trade the swings people, volatility is back!
Damn! You dropped 200k on Teva and your still 87% cash?
Stock market drops 30% and Chipotle goes up 30%.. I don’t get it! Chipotle is food is over rated IMHO
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:My kids love it - probably in their top 5
Don’t get me wrong their food is good, but we have a Baja Fresh across the street from Chipotle and I go to Baja 90% of the time.
Quoted from gambit3113:Chipotle's signature dish is their E. Coli Bowl. Gross.
Holy where the heck have you been?? Welcome back Gambit, really good to see you back!
Wow a weeks worth of losses wiped away at the opening bell this morning. I’m thinking about setting up a lab in my garage and then announcing that I am working on something that might be a vaccine, but in the fine print I will mention that it might just be a formula for a new micro beer.. then I will watch the money pour in!
This is fun to watch! Come on Nasdaq 10,000!.. As soon as people realize that they bought a bogus narrative about how everything is priced in and we will be back to normal in 60 days. All the while the big guys are dumping their equities on Joe public at inflated prices and will have fully shorted the market by the time some “news” comes out that dumps the market again
When this thing drops, it is going to spectacular!
Quoted from Shapeshifter:Incredible.
Market is pure Casino. House wins.
Fundamentals count for jack all.
Ride the wave people!
I wasn't brave enough.
It always fascinates me that when the market is down big there are huge swings up and down all day, but when is up big it’s pinned up for the entire day most of the time.
1 week later
More news, this should definitely push the Dow over 30,000.. good news is good news bad news is better news.. it’s all priced in!
https://apple.news/AlqeX0vFtR9a3ndboeT_80A
53CB2ADB-435D-4078-A47A-46C9CFEA4580 (resized).jpegInteresting article, I will be curious what the Fed has to say in tomorrow’s meeting..
https://apple.news/AOS8ortz0S_6N2iEnWV3oVA
838C2329-222F-4241-9CB9-EF384B90A0CD (resized).jpegQuoted from iceman44:“Fed makes terms more favorable for Main Street lending program”
All in
Ice your right a hell of a lot more than I am so I’m going with your call.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:And... the best 2 days ever is followed by the worst day ever. 12% in the red. Still way up. Let's go green tomorrow!
This Market is way overbought! I thought we would drop Monday and we didn’t. My magic 8 ball is saying that we are about to have a correction... if it happens will it will be interesting to see if it’s 5% or 20%
Quoted from pinlink:Thinking of jumping back into Boeing (BA) if it goes below 200. Thoughts?
At $199.00 now
I would wait on BA, it was $118.00 2 weeks ago.
Disclaimer: I’m a pinhead not an investment guru
I think BA is a buy under $150
I had a small TZA position yesterday and ended up in the emergency room and got stopped out at $21.07 still made some $$ oh well.
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:considering I missed BA @ $120, yes I think 150 is a good goal.
I bought BA at $118 and sold at $149 I almost jumped off a bridge when it went over $200
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:And down 4,500 points since February. This is a market for day traders. If you got out high, good for you, if you didn’t, it’s gonna be a long ride.
The Fed has shot a good portion of its wad unless they want to go to negative rates which is ridiculous IMHO.
Quoted from iceman44:Why did the market bounce back today on a Friday? Lol
For day traders MAC was up 7%
Just a matter of time.
Can’t escape the positive reopenings despite the media and biased talking heads on CNBC
Boom boom
Use some common sense
CCL +15%?
The cruise line rally is what baffles me! You couldn’t pay me to get on one of those ships! I would assume most feel the same way after all those people were marooned on the ships and quarantined to their cabins for weeks... sounds like a nightmare, we are Going to see some BK’s IMHO.
1000 point swing today, seems like a healthy market (thanks plunge protection team)
The Fed has manipulated this market to the point that it is a joke.. pretty sad really! Forcing people near retirement into risky assets (punishing the savers)
Quoted from DadofTwins:If you are near retirement, money should definitely not be in the stock market, pretty sure that's an ongoing suggestion. Closer you get, the less aggressive the investment vehicle. Why risk it unless you like living dangerously.
Agreed but with 0% rates there are not many options.
Quoted from iceman44:Another reminder, “DON’T FIGHT THE FED”
Market rallying on announcement that they will be buying individual Corp bonds.
Why don’t “the smart people” believe the FED. Lol
I agree Ice, fighting the Fed is a losing proposition, someday they will run out of bullets and will no longer be able to artificially prop this market up, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon. My guess is that sometime im the near future the Fed will announce that they are going to start buying stocks.
Can someone explain this to me, who is buying this stock??
https://apple.news/AYTIzMzQZQuacRgBb2c2_rA
B58B8C63-632B-4C84-8D9E-3DCBAFA6A9EC (resized).jpegQuoted from thedarkknight77:I am still afraid of this fake market, but I continue to trade to try and make some money. Bought 9K shares of AT&T and back in Teva for 20k shares . Still have a high percentage of cash and will use the VXX as my guide on when to cash out. Hopefully make a quick $30k in the next month and then it’s back to cash. Stick and move!! Just stick and move!! Rocky 2
What’s your thoughts on TEVA 20k shares is a lot of cheddar!
2 weeks later
5 months later
Stock market is disconnected from the coming reality. Ice any opinions on TZA here?
Quoted from kpg:So you are predicting we go down "5-10% this month on a Dem senate win this month"
That's a tall claim, what are you shorting, and when?
What’s funny is a 5 to 10% correction in past markets would seem like a large correction, but in this market it about a 1 week retrace of recent gains.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:A word of warning. The most money I ever lost in the stock market was with TZA, back in 2011 or so. Things were looking pretty grim for some reason or another, and I the genius with the seeing stones decided the market was going to tank, and went all in on TZA. The day afterwards the Fed announced operation twist, and the free money tap opened up, pumping up the stock market and killing me. It was a valuable lesson, and I wouldn't touch it. However, if you chose to go for TZA, know that TZA has been going down it's entire existance. When I bought it 10 years ago it's price was about 10 times what it is now. It slowly goes down with brief spikes in price, so if you do go TZA I wouldn't hold onto it for more than a few weeks at most. Additionally, the new administration will do everything in their power to keep markets up short term... up to and including free money.
Thanks for this, I know that these 3x ETF are for very short term trades because of decay, also I worry that TZA has fallen so far that it may do a reverse split soon.
My 401k is in a cash fund right now and I have missed good a portion of this run. I am being very cautious as I have permanently lost my job for medical reasons and I am 52 years old.
2 months later
Quoted from WeirPinball:Where were you a few days ago? If I remember right we had a 10% correction in tech...
I mostly follow the S&P 500 and I believe the dip there was approximately 2%.. I am far from an expert on the subject but it seems to me that a handful of mega cap Tech companies make up a large portion of the NASDAQ so when it swings 10% i don’t pay much attention, as we saw it took about a blink of an eye to recover the losses. We are way overdue for a correction that that lasts more than a couple of days, it will be interesting to see what happens when the 10 year treasury yield spikes higher... I think Jerome Powell is getting very nervous, when the economy begins to fully reopen inflation is bound to pickup even more.
Quoted from captainadam_21:Don't even have to research the company. I have no idea what most even do. Just look for a catalyst and a gap up overnight. Plus a huge increase in volume usually means party time for the first hour or so of the day.
Do you use a website/ service that alerts you to news alerts and or volume activity?
Quoted from KornFreak28:Hell yeah brother!!!! My investment (not gamble ) is paying off! But again: When Do you take profits on this one? How much can MAC grow?
You posted an article saying 50-75 bucks but is that realistic?
That was a weird deal when MAC shot up and then that pension fund dumped it and it went down. The stock seems like a good value at this price.
1 week later
My 401k is in cash now. My prediction, I think a drop to the 3200 level on the S&P 500 is coming soon. I am sitting on the sidelines for now.
Disclaimer: I’m wrong a lot
Quoted from Friengineer:Based on what? The FED is still flooding us with free monies, economy is opening back up. By next quarter we should see retail jump back up. What's with the doom and gloom?
The fed is in a box.. good news for the economy is now bad news for the fed.. as the economy reopens inflation will become more of an issue. At some point the fed will be forced to act or the treasury market will do it for him.. watch the yield on the 10 year.. if it pushes up over 2% shit is gunna get real.. again all IMHO, I was a construction guy not a Wall Street guy so what the heck do I know 
Quoted from extraballingtmc:So what’s tomorrow bring??
Big up on the open then down, up, down, flat, up and then down into close 
Good news for the economy is becoming bad news for the Fed/market.... Jerome is in a tuff spot and it’s getting tougher by the day as the economy reopens. At some point the Fed will have to act.... save the stock market or save the economy?
Im not an expert on the economics but I did stay at a holiday in express last night.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/unemployment-jobless-claims-coronavirus-pandemic
Quoted from Zablon:I seriously don't understand this market. I was down HUGE this morning...and now..green and going up.
It’s not investing any more, it’s a casino! It is heavily tilted twards the house (big hedge funds ect). A good example of this is when the big boys were beginning to get their nuts squeezed on GME and all of the sudden retail investors were only allowed to sell the stock they could not buy... as we know the stock fell from 400 to 100 in minutes allowing the hedge funds to cover their shorts and save them selves billions of dollars (people should go to jail for that).
When this all comes crashing down the big boys will of course know in advance of any Fed move and be out or short the market and the retail investors will be crushed.
IMHO It’s sad really with pensions going the way of the dinosaur and rates at 0% savers are being punished. People and most sadly the elderly are forced into the markets to get any type of return on their money and taking risks they don’t want to take or in the case of retirees have no business taking.
The ultra rich in this Country have increased their wealth during this pandemic due to the feds policy by obscene amounts while the average working man is struggling with 2% COLA raises that are sadly no where near keeping up with inflation.. sorry for the rant guys I will go away now.
6 months later
Quoted from gambit3113:I always wonder if gold really will or would have any actual extrinsic value in an apocalyptic economic collapse. What the hell are you going to do with heavy ass gold in that situation. Seems like ammo and safety and sex are the currency in that world.
Don’t forget toilet paper!
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