It may already be somewhat factored in. The gambling sites (must more trustworthy than polls) have him with quite a big lead at this point. PredictIt has 58 cents Biden, 44 cents Trump.

Covid fears kills the market again
good thing I have my seat belt on tight

I unloaded my VOO this morning at open.

Check out what CNBC said tonight on this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html

With the new virus infections seeming to go out of control all over the country I have to believe that is the driver of a new downturn in the market until the feds pump more trillions into the markets.

I agree. Was reading that the fed promised 2.3 trillion but has not pumped in that much. I think we are way overbought right now. Sold half my BA, all of my regn, all of my roku, and all of my rtx. Made a handsome profit and raised some good large $$$ to go with what I had on the sidelines. Have some things I love, some things that are a trade, and a bunch of gtc on tech, which has run too far too fast. Be careful out there folks. We will not see a full lockdown for political reasons, but things are not great. I expect and hope to see a market correction based upon COVID and Biden. My posture is to be nimble through all of this, and I am not in love with anything. Good luck, all..

I know that is popular for some to say, but could you share the method and the math on how the Fed’s money is being put into the stock market? Bonds and Money Market support sure and they will sell those back in a few years for a profit but I am talking stocks.

The Fed is not buying stocks. Check out this breakdown from CNBC tonight. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/the-fed-said-it-could-supply-the-economy-with-2point3-trillion-it-hasnt-come-close-so-far.html

I think the Fed buys ETF's through Blackrock.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/17/fed-is-addicted-propping-up-market-whether-it-needs-help-or-not/

I apologize in advance guys and gals. Maybe it's the booze, maybe its the expected death of a love one tonight, so take this with a grain of sand, but please, go educate yourself about the markets and what is going on. This is not directed at any particular poster and I don't want it to come off that way. I see a lot of unformulated opinions and musings on here that simple knowledge of the markets and/or research will answer for you. This is a pinball website, not a stock forum or news site. The good news is that you have some people that follow the markets closely here and are giving people some ideas and insights. The bad news is that if you do not educate yourselves, you are screwed, and that you should not rely upon a pinball fan site for your financial planning.

My unvarnished advice to you is such:

If you are not a diligent investor, you are screwing yourself. You need to be active on the news of what is going on in the markets and political arenas. You need to be amoral when it comes to this, separating out your personal beliefs and biases versus reality. Case in point, a Joe Biden victory is probably bad for the stock market while a Trump victory would be good. Main street and Wall street do not trade together. ETC, ETC, ETC. There is a lot of information out there. Go spend x amount of time reading and learning per day or week.

Stock investing is a job. Go and apply the same discipline to it that you do your regular job. Nobody is going to care about your financial well being like you would.

There is no such thing as easy money. I see people on here talking about shorting this and optioning that. These are very sophisticated maneuvers that if you don't truly understand what is going on, you will get your nuts in a vice. Goes back to the education part.

A broker's job is to make themselves money. Learn the difference between a broker and a fiduciary. I have dropped 100's of thousands of dollars in getting an education about the market by making bad trades and learning the ropes. However, this is better than having no direction and I am much smarter now. If you are not going to dedicate yourself to investing, get a broker.

If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Do your own diligence.

Cheap stocks are cheap for a reason. Not saying they are good or bad, but generally you get what you pay for.

Don't invest in anything that you don't understand or would invest in as a consumer. Consider this the Warren Buffet Principle.

What worked in the past does not necessarily work now. Be attuned to what is going on, and make decisions accordingly.

You are going to make bad decisions. Don't dwell on the good or the bad. Make decisions, make money, and move on.

Don't compare yourself to others. Whether an investment is your first 100 bucks in the market of if you have millions in the market, focus on you. Sure, you can get lessons from others but remember, they do not pay your mortgage. Outside of your job, the market is the best way for you to go make money to impact the livelihood of your family. Don't focus on what other people are making or doing, focus on what you are doing. If you are only making 2 percent, I have two thoughts for you. 1) progress is progress and 2) if you are not happy, analyze the situation and make decisions from there.

Again, sorry for the rant. I wish you all the best in your investments.

Good advice and sorry for your loss

Im not a option trader but how much will this apple call sale trade cost him

With all due respect, I simply do not agree with this advice and believe it in error.

I've been a passive investor since I was 23 and am heading into my late 40s. I was passive in 2000, 2001, 2008, and now 2020.

My results stand on their own and my 25 year passive strategy has proven itself as valid.

At the moment, our portfolio is worth between 25 and 30 times our annual expenses.

I've never missed a run up, never caught a falling knife, never sold at a loss, never paid taxes on trading churn, and never lost sleep trying to decide if I needed to jump in or out.

Investing and wealth building are a lot easier than financial advisors and active traders would have you believe.

How low can BA go? I got some bottom feeding in April, loved the run up, i knew correction would come. I still believe its $20 over valued today.

What you are saying works historically for a diversified portfolio. I believe what DBLM was referring to is people that are buying individual stocks (or options trading) and not paying attention to being in a diversified S&P like spread of stocks. For example if you bought several retail, airline, and tech stocks but not much of typical boring blue chips then you may get burned or miss out on the full market performance long term.

That I agree with.

Perhaps it's my own bias, when I hear 'passive investor', I automatically assume we are talking about a well diversified portfolio that just sits there and emulates an index.

He sold those calls 4 months ago before AAPL tanked. So, I would assume AAPL was was trading right around $330.00.


========================================

Here is your real short answer:

If he did not cover those short calls when the had a beautiful chance to do so he would be sitting on an $18,382.00 loss today.
======================================================

I assume he sold these calls naked. To set that trade up, he would have to meet margin requirements. Margin on short options used to be 35% of the value of the stock, plus or minus any amount in or out of the money the options are from their strike price and less the premium sold.

For one contract: stock is $320 x 35% = 112. The 335 call is $15.00 out of the money = $112.00 - $15.00 = $97.00 less the $13.86 premium.

$97.00 - 13.86 = $83.14. One contract is for 100 shares of stock. So, $83.14 x 100 = $8314.00

So, to short one OTM 335 call, the seller has to be able to cover $8314.00. Since he says he sold 13 contracts, he has to cover $8314.00 x 13 = $108,082 to set that trade up.
===================================================================

Right after he sold that contract, AAPL tanked down to $220.00. He was golden. With a 335 call now OTM by 115 points, there would not be very much time premium. If he covered at that time, and let's say he could have bought those calls back for $ 0.50. .50 x 100 = $50.00 x 13 = $650.00.

He would have netted $13.86 x 13 = 180.00 x 100 = $18018.00 - 650.00 = $17,368.00 on that trade.
========================================================

OK. Let's assume he was not paying attention to business and he did not buy back those short calls. Let's assume he is still short those 13 calls.

Here is your short answer: AAPL is now trading at $363.00.

He sold the 335s for a $13.86 premium.

$363.00 - 335 = $28.00 - 13.86 = $14.14

So, right now, he is losing ( $14.14) per share or. 14.14 x 100 = $1,414.00 x 13 = ($18,382.00).
===================================================================

.


EDIT: If he is still short, he would be getting buried in margin calls because his calls are $28.00 ITM.

EDIT 2: It sounds complicated, but is really not. Once you have made a couple of options trades, the math starts falling right into place. It is amazing how fast you learn the math when you are getting hammered by a losing trade

The rub is no different than if you are trading stocks. You still have to have the understandings of what is making your stock move and the market move.

If you buy a simple call and pay $2.50 x 100 = $250.00 your max loss is $250.00. $250.00 is gambling bet. Put your bet on and watch the wheel spin. Maybe you get lucky. Maybe you don't.

But when you go on the short side of selling options naked, you really have to pay attention. $250.00 is a gambling bet. Although, unlike Vegas, you can pull your bet at any time if you don't like the way things are looking.

Going short can make you start chewing your finger nails down to the quick. It is so easy to get over-leveraged.

Well buying bonds and lending to corporations yes, but I was talking about how people mention “The Fed is pumping Trillions into the markets” since to me it infers the stock market is getting trillions of dollars added into it from the Fed. To myself and most others “the Market” is the stock market, so I feel when mentioning “the markets” it needs a little clarification of what and where. That’s all

But I see where you are going with your comments about volatility possibly coming. I personally have a 30% cash position and some gold as a hedge against future downturns and to protect my portfolio. So I am 2/3rds in which is by far the most cash I have ever had on the side.

And once again as others have mentioned with all that is going on “Good luck out there”. That applies to how folks are doing financially and personally.

DCFAN hit the nail on the head. Sorry for my loose verbiage. Also, a lot of folks buy stocks or investments and never look to see if it is performing well or not. I think my better world would be "diligent" in making sure you are diversified as well as tracking how things are doing.

This link.

What I have thought is that most of this move back up has been on jawbone. Just the smallest trickle of "good" news moves the market up. One day there will be news blob about some new vaccine possibility. Then the next day it will be "the U.S./China deal looks like it is still on. On another day, it will be more jawbone about something else. Just little bits here and there to keep the flame alive.

Sort like like that little prick teasing girl who keeps you hanging around with one stealth move after another.

Don't think you're right. Presidents and markets are loosely correlated. For the most part, where you are in the business cycle, and past interest rate / fed policies, have determined whether a president's tenure is 'good' for markets or not. For instance, W Bush's presidency saw a net loss in the markets; however for most of his presidency markets were rising (due to a long period of low rates) and subsequently low rates to repair the .com bust lead to yield chasing and bad bank behavior which crashed the economy on his way out.

presidents and markets (resized).png

Until their policies are enacted.

Bought a bit of FB at $220 for longer term. We will see how it goes. Will use my cash to buy dips of stocks I like over the next few months. All part of my plan.

And finding the top and bottom is hard.

I agree with you in the long term that fed and tax policy dictate more about the state of the market during a presidency, but in the run up to the election the prospect of change can greatly impact the markets. My team and I have had a variety of conversations about the election and are positioning accordingly. Plus, here is a repost of a CNBC article that I posted earlier this week that does talk about the downward pressure that the odds of a Biden presidency is putting on the markets now.

Net-net, the prospect of a Biden presidency is putting negative pressure on the market right now.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/bidens-big-lead-in-the-polls-could-be-partly-behind-markets-drop-and-may-lead-to-more-weakness.html

I can't find the link now, but Wall Street is worried about Elizabeth Warren becoming Secretary of Treasury.

The President would not go for that!

Maybe in the short term but traditionally the stock market, and economy in general has performed much better under Democratic Presidents. Yes, some of this is dumb luck, but it's not really something to be ignored. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/05/28/fact-check-do-gop-presidents-oversee-recessions-dems-recoveries/5235957002/

Fair enough. Right now though, I am just looking at the immediate few months as a more active trader. Too much potential for exogenous events (Black Swans). The past 4 years have been a helluva bull market until COVID-19 hit. A lot of the older paradigms about the stock market don't necessarily apply like they used to with all of fiscal policy machinations we have seen over the last 15 years, the advent and rise of algorithmic trading, etc.

The things that I am monitoring include:

Covid spread and its impacts
Run up to the election and the positioning of my portfolio for the 6 months afterwards
Implications of tax policy based upon the election
Geopolitical upheaval

These are the known knowns. I can position for these. I have no idea what else going to spring up. When you take the highly politicized nature of things now, a polarizing president, a pandemic, and you combine it with nation-state bad actors, there are going to be all types of twists and turns over the next few months that have the potential to impact the markets.

If folks are looking for 2 good books I recommend Michael Lewis's "The Big Short" and "Flashboys." Both related to the economy, but from vastly different perspectives.

Personally, that would scare the shit out of me. I personally don't care if a Dem or a Republican win elections in general from a market perspective as long as they are not too far right or left. But when you introduce elements that go outside of a standard deviation or two either way, that gives me grounds for concern. Warren fits into that category for me.

Depends on who is President come November. Well, actually Jan. 20th.

Face book's Zuckerberg blinks.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-shares-drop-7-as-unilever-halts-advertising-prompting-changes-at-social-networking-giant-2020-06-26?mod=home-page

With some high profile companies pulling their FB advertising dollars, Z-berg changes his mind on what gets posted to FB.

" Zuckerberg now says Facebook will hide or block content considered hateful or that could harm voting, with no exception for politicians."

Is there a buying opportunity in here somewhere? Or is it best to wait until next year to see what the big advertisers do?

Agreed, but there are specific correlations one can count on. Leading up to the 2000 election a buddy of mine mentioned that if Bush becomes president you can be assured that valuations of military contractors will rise. It was the first time I realized there was a stock market correlation with political party, and it has proven to be true ever since. As to overall markets, I'd lean toward less of a correlation to party, and more to environment.

Finally sold off some FSLY. Still have positions in at $48 and $60 so I have some cushion for a drop. It is a long term hold, so just lightening up. And I resold the bit of FB that I recently bought. I will look around to add on dips over the next couple of bumpy months ahead. I am at 30ish% cash and 5% Gold so can deal with the dips and benefit of the good days. That is my plan at this point.

Fresh new all time highs today on TTD, SHOP, SE, AYX, DOCU......

Bottoms up.

Adding some VIX for a hedge.

Patiently waiting for "in the ditch" to recover again. Day to day is much to do about nothing as we continue to see.

Pfizer with very promising vaccine trials.

Crazy day today. I keep expecting huge drops, and I checked to see we are up 5% just from yesterday. Maybe time to get that P3...

Don't let it. The treasury us just a subset of the Federal Reserve now, the change occurred back in March.

I own all of those in part to you Ice. Thanks for helping me transition out of mostly ETFs and MF’s to mostly stocks during this Stock pickers market.

I subscribed to “The Data Driven Investor” with Andres Cardenal per your recommendation. It has been excellent! Can you throw out a couple of more of your favorites? There are so many.

Thanks!

........PINS, LULU, NOW, OKTA, MDB, TWLO, TEAM, ZS, LVGO, MELI, FSLY Part of momentum/growth model

Have big gains in those (except PINS and LVGO) all due for a decent pullback, that's when i'd take a look to add for the long term.

And of course the obvious, AAPL, headed to $400+, maybe $500 ish on 5g upgrade cycle by end of 2021, services, wearables, streaming, health care, buybacks, etc etc. Buy on pullbacks has been a big winning strategy for years.

Visa is another no brainer cornerstone stock to add on dips.

Opps sorry I wasn’t clear. I meant Recommendations for financial info to subscribe to, like pay a monthly fee for access to articles written by analysts, etc.. you like. Any favorites you like?

And yes Sir. I am already in on PINS, OKTA, TWLO, LVGO, MELI, AAPL and FSLY already. Along with many others that have been on your past lists., TTD, SE, AYX, NVDA etc.. I am fortunate on most of them to have a nice cushion from when I have bought them so I can absorb a drop. Will put your others on my watch list and look into them more. Have cash ready to go but I am being patient at this point.

Thanks again!

The "High yield landlord" on Seeking Alpha does a great job of vetting and research on all things REIT's.

I spend a lot of money on Motley fool research to help build models for different goals and risk tolerance. Guru Focus premium, Morningstar premium, to name a few other screens.

That's why i like Andras for a "do it yourself" type, he seems to channel a good bit of Motley Fool on a smaller scale for a fraction of the cost and he's a bit more conservative as you can see by the level of cash he maintains.

I forgot to include TSLA in the above list . I'd buy on pullbacks below $950. It's up 185% since March 23rd.

Excellent jobs report today has the fireworks going off early!

I just can't imagine overall index growth without another correction before this virus thing is put behind us.

I’m hoping for a pullback to 2650 on S&P to satisfy all the talking heads and geniuses that missed the best quarter in history

That doesn’t mean certain indiv stocks will follow

Fibonacci says otherwise right now. Has to break through 3230 and then on the way to 3750

Based on media hammering virus fear and panic despite 6x the number of tests currently and a declining death rate AND I’m hoping for a vaccine by the end of the year and more therapeutics we should get a temporary pullback at some point

As for Motley Fool services I subscribe to the following:

Stock Advisor
Rule Breakers
Moneymakers
Partnership Portfolio
Blast Off 2019, 2020 (responsible for huge gains since Jan 2019)

Partnership Portfolio

This is for long term investing. Not meant for traders

There is overlap. The returns speak for themselves. Do your own due diligence on their recommendations.

Not cheap but great screens depending on what you are looking for

Combine that with everything else and there you go. Takes a lot of work to pick through the research but it’s a great way to do “passive investing” for the long term, bottom ups style

I am curious to see how well Gilead does with its remdesivir sales increasing.
The year lows are not drastically lower than where it is now so I would think it makes for a reasonably low risk investment.

Crowdstrike CRWD a Stock Advisor rec today fwiw

Earnings, Earnings, covid, unemployment, eranings, quarterly reports, covid, and election.
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times"
Who's ready for a rocky July?

I’m ready to make some more money with Ice and I love what Goldman is saying about September.

As we have seen, anything can happen in the short run, but only one thing is almost certain to happen in the long run, a RECOVERY. The REIT market has gone through countless corrections historically and always recovered, without exception.

It's NOT "different this time".

In fact, we are in so much better shape than 2008-09 and despite the fear and panic being peddled the pandemic death toll is going down despite a surge in both testing and cases.

People are underestimating again the strength of this overall economy bounce back and the amount of stimulus that is sloshing around out there. It doesn't matter anyway.

Even the most negative doom and gloomers are optimistic that we will have a VACCINE ready to deploy by early January. The entire world is in an all out effort to make this happen.

If you can think a little bit forward and past the COVID panic, there are great opportunities with "in the ditch" stocks. Maybe a bit early this past go around BUT its coming, we just had a preview in May of what's going to happen as the news gets more positive going into the yr end. Vaccines, herd immunity, therapeutics and just simple law of averages in terms of number of cases.

I'm loving the huge gains we've made since April with technology but I'll be looking forward to add to the MAC's, CCL's, BKNG etc. of the world as they have veered off into the ditch again. Not just yet though but working on that value list.