Been paying into just a boring old 457b sine day 1 with my employer about 15 years ago (early 20's). My plan is to have enough in there that I can retire with my full check early (if you include pension).

It does have a portion self managed. I had moved out a small percentage and bought apple stock back around the time of the orignal iPhone. 9ish years later it has far outpaced the rest of the account and is now about 10% overall. Yet I still like being in as the dividends have already paid me back the original investment amount and are enough for me to play around buying some other stocks.

I would sure like a crystal ball that would let me do that again.

That would be nice becasue then you never have to touch the principle. Gives you unlimited time in retirement and you get to pass the principle to your children (or loved ones).

Unfortunately I got a VERY late start on retirement savings.....like many. Fortunately I have a good business that I also get to sell in retirement, plus I'm trying to make up for lost time. Hurts a little now but will be worth the piece of mind.

Everyone talks about factoring in an average 3% cost of living increase......but it that really needed? I mean will I really spend in my late eighties early nineties what I'll spend in my late 60's and in my 70's? Somehow I really doubt it. I might still be alive and well but I don't see traveling as much or buying pinball machines in my 90's.

While you may not be traveling or buying pinball in your 80's-90's you may want to move into something like an independent living or life care community. Those can be very expensive and their rates go up 3-5% per year.

My mother in law is dowing that now. Can't maintain the big house on her own, doesn't want to leave the city and likes the option of having higher levels of care available right there where she will have made her new home.

Some spending models take age into consideration. Bernicke's I think. You can do some projections with firecalc and cfiresim.

Personally I find it difficult to estimate healthcare costs.

Good point!

Firecalc is a fine tool for sure.

Going into second quarter with high valuation anyone buying, selling, buying puts or staying put

Just a little update on my Prosper account. Nearly a year in now and I'm averaging 11.7% return which is beating my expectations by a large margin. This is still WAY too short of a time frame to properly judge but I'm impressed with what I'm seeing. I did "customize" my account with certain restrictions on how my money is loaned out and I also customized the percentages assigned to the loan ratings (AA through E). I'm weighted mostly in the B & C class loans (55%) with A & D classes representing 35% and E at 10% (I have 0% in AA).

Ticker pb ? high beta reasonable pe

Unfortunately in the great state of MD you can't invest in Prosper

My original post was from 3 months ago.

AAPL is around 143 and HOV is at 2.20.

I made the right call in not selling AAPL calls at that time (I recently sold may 145 calls). I should've sold HOV at 2.70.

It's not a stock I own ....they take your money and loan it out to people. It's referred to as "peer to peer" lending. I have mine set up as a Roth account but you can also just do straight lending.

Lame. Same with Lending Club? I couldn't do Lending Club but could do Prosper.

I just checked and you are open to Lending Club.....which is essentially the same thing.

Disaster for UAL and the stock is up slightly. Crazy world.

Sold 3 Puts of AMZN June 850 @ $14.60

Nice

I sold 3 for various dates but $660 got like $5-$8 each

My opinion - I'm not an expert by any means, but I have common sense. Short TSLA, either with long dated -buy Puts or naked short stock. Shorting will cost 1.25% annually to brokerage firm.

Also, if something happens on the Korean Peninsula, all stocks will correct violently down. Assuming no use of nuclear weapons, this could be a buying opportunity. I have gone to 25% cash just in case.

LoL

If inflation is anywhere near historical averages of nearly 3%, you'll need a 6.5% annual return to allow you to withdraw 3.5% and still keep the principal at the same relative value.

There are some arguments against SWR, not the least of which is agreeing upon a safe percentage. Wade Pfau did a study showing 2-3% SWR going forward. However that was in 2010 and I believe he has revised that upward. EarlyRetirementNow recently wrote a massive series of blogs about SWR. He had some good points although he comes across as a bit of a dick!

I think of SWR as a savings target, but I don't explicitly use it for spending models as I plan to spend the principal. I intend more flexibility than a strict SWR would allow. "FWR" if you will If you have the option to ease into retirement, via part-time work, SLE Sterns, or other income streams, even better. I read a study (which of course I can't find now!) that showed the first five years of retirement pretty much determine the long-term success rate.

Also I recently found this awesome site http://www.flexibleretirementplanner.com

It uses Monte Carlo sims like most other sites, but you can run additional sensitivity analyses with all sorts of parameters to tweak. It's my favorite site of its kind.

If you look at www.firecalc.com

You will see there is a wide range of outcomes for any given set of starting portfolio and spending plan.

You can only control spending, you can't control (predict) rate of return or time of death.

An annuity can flatten out the spending uncertainty but costs you something for that insurance.

As always you will die sometime in the future, and you can't take it with you so you should be fine spending the principal.

I plan on spending 3.5-4% of principal adjusted for inflation.

Father Time is undefeated
IMG_3008 (resized).PNG

So my great uncle that lived to 110 was way out there.

Was able to do lending club, seeded it with $5k just to observe how it works and if it's any good

I'm not trying to preserve principal, I'm looking to have constant spending power until age 95. The portfolio test passes if it goes to zero at age 95.

I believe Tesla to be mostly a fraud; but shorting them has proved highly dangerous. Musk is very good at talking up his stock. It's also a very popular company and people love to talk about it.

The time to short Tesla will be it can't raise money.

Recently, I've been revisiting the 'big picture' items:
Tax Exposure:
A new tax CPA is starting to review the efficiency of my plan (I know it needs work).

Insurance:
I started with my Life Insurance last year... more coverage, better coverage, and saved a lot of money
Home, auto and umbrella I did in January. I can't believe how my coverage degraded over 25 years with the same carrier. New strategy works much better.

Next, I want to explore "Long Term Care". Is it me, or is the whole LTC policy strategy a huge scam? Even when reviewing fixed premium plans that convert to a term-life policy if not used, the value proposition of the LTC plan seems really weak. I think I can self-insure and come ahead.

Has anyone got any opinions on the LTC play? Please educate me.
faz

If you're gonna have a lot of money for retirement, you don't need LTC.

If you have money for retirement, but not enough for a catastrophic situation, then you need LTC.

Yeah I'm generally not a fan of LTC insurance.

Me either, seems like you need to be wealthy to afford it but if you're wealthy enough you don't really need it.

Anyone have any ideas on beat up stocks like VZ or IBM

I figure VZ will stabilize its one of the dogs, sometimes dogs are better than high fliers because there's only so much lower they can go (unless the truly collapse) which I can't see VZ or IBM doing.

VZ is pushing close to 5% dividend. And truly makes money every month, my phone bill is a testament to that.

IBM while a long term dog still makes money off mainframe computers and is getting into cloud computing. It's contracting but has tremendously bought back shares. Have bought back 400M shares in the last 9 years. Has bought back more than half of the company in the last 20 years.

I like Amazon and Google better but so do everyone and their grandmother so they're (maybe) over bought.

Are you familiar with the dogs of the Dow?

I love the "out of favor" stocks. If the market loves them I generally avoid. A little beat down but still solid fundamentally is what I tend to look for.

yes, I'm also looking at the idea that a big company can go under like GM did.

VZ doesn't seem like that type of company, it's the leader in mobile phones in the US, and people pay hundreds of dollars every month for cell phones. I think partly a price war is cutting profits, I am not sure what the heck they are doing with AOL or Yahoo that seems like a colossal waste of money which could have been spent somehow other. I think they missed expectations by one penny and the markets freaked out.

I am not as confident of IBM they are like the Titanic which is hard to turn around, they are supposed to be changing direction, but can they change before they sink?

I know PE does not tell the entire story but
VZ is 16 (almost 5% div)
IBM is 13 (3.5% div)
S&P500 is almost 25

In 2003, GM had a $13 billion bond offering just to fund their pension. Verizon doesn't seem to be in this situation.

IBM is a poorly run, overly large business with multiple quarters of declining revenue. They recently made incredibly poor moves IMHO including forcing their large remote workforce to centralize in high cost areas. This is going to bleed them of talent. I wouldn't invest a cent in them. Read "the decline and fall of IBM"

Any thoughts on the TWTR earnings next week? I hold some shares long and have been thinking about selling them and buying some calls over the earnings period. I have been writing calls on the shares but still not making up for the down side. Thanks.

The 'back to the office' fad is a huge loser.

I don't know any of the fundamentals of IBM but I had a very very talented friend who worked there for almost 20 years quit and take another job. Never expected that from him. that to me had me question their long term prosperity.

I have seen people lose a large majority of their savings due to long term health issues later in life.
I'm a big fan of insurance .... never think of it until you actually use it.

the question is this?

The insurance company *is* making money selling the insurance product, that's a fact. They won't be selling it if it was not a money maker.

I just looked up a quote. These policies are limited to $150/day or $200/day and usually 3-5 years (obviously you pay more for the longer options).

The price quote you pay is not set in stone (there can be future policy adjustments upwards as the years go by).

The net total is this (Example) suppose $200/day for 3 years max payout is $219K (if you need it). However some people will never need it. These policies may not go the full 3 years (if you die before the 3 years are up) and you might never ever use a cent of it. Suppose you have a heart attack or accidental death. I believe they waif 90 days before they take effect anyway.

The sample policy quote was $150/month at my age 51

Now suppose you take $150/month and invest it at average return 5%/year you'd have a total account of $150K after 33 years (my fathers age) and counting because neither he or my mother have yet to need LT care. If you save yourself you could use that money as needed when the time comes (if you ever need it).

A married couple would need to have 2 policies and so that's $300/mo which would give you a savings (if invested instead) nest egg of $300K after 33 years).

The insurance companies are looking at charts and know that *some* people will never need it ($$ goes to the insurance company). Some people will need only a portion of the 3 years ($$ goes to the insurance company) and some people will need all the money.

But overall net sum the insurance company will collect more than they pay out.

There is risk that the insurance company can go out of business (not likely but some risk?) there is the risk of the insurance premium going up over the years. Believe me I have disability insurance and it always goes up never down. I was reading one post where the insurance company wanted to raise the rated 50%. Once you are locked into he policy you need to pay for the rest of your life (I believe).

I'm not saying you never should get it, but if you are poor you can't afford it anyway (what poor person has an extra $150/mo sitting around?) and if you are wealthy you can invest on your own and you can pay as you go.

Please note, this is LT care insurance it does not pay for all your health bills and may not even cover all your LT care bills. It's 'LT care' such as in home or nursing home and only covers so much like $200/day (probably adjusted for inflation).

I am not saying don't save money or don't buy LT insurance. I am saying you may not need LT insurance if you invest $200-300/month in stock/bonds and you'd likely have multi-hundred thousands of dollars. <this is on top of your retirement savings of course>. I mean you'd either pay $150++ a month for an insurance policy or save/invest that money on your own.

I know people already save for retirement yada yada. The point I am making is that LT insurance costs a lot so if you pay the insurance company or if you put it into a savings account in your own name either way after 20-30-40 years you will have a lot.

I'm a doctor, I met a lady who was 92 and still drives and still works. Now if she was saving $150/mo for 40 years she'd be at $228K at 5% gain. I met a married couple both in their 90's and if they had saved for 40 years they'd be at half a million.

I know not everyone lives to 90+ but if you do and you you need to keep making these payments for your whole life to keep the policy in effect and who knows if you will ever need it and who knows if it will stay $150/mo or maybe it will be $500/mo in 20-30 years?

I can't put the future cost into my calculator because I don't know how much the policy will rise over the years.

anyway the point I am trying to make is that insurance companies make money so some people could pay in their whole life and never use it and that's money gone.

Bought back my 3 June $850 Puts of Amazon for $1.80.

Sold 3 August $890 Puts of Amazon for $22.40.

That was today's transactions.

cool I have been getting my ass burned on VZ puts and MO puts, needed to buy 1000 VZ shares at higher than market value. my MO puts are also in the money. I could have bought them back at a loss but was deep in the money already, anyway I sold future calls on those shares for $700 and if that don't execute will continue to sell future calls and in meanwhile VZ now pays 5% dividends around $200/month.

I have made so much money on MO (that I own I mean they are 10 baggers if counting dividends)plus all the MO puts that I have been selling for the last 2-3 years that I don't really care that I am forced to buy some at above market price. It's like house money.

I made some bank on AMZN puts but have not bought them back, wondering if I just let them expire worthless. I mean they are AMZN $650 to $750 in the next 3-6 months.

Usually, I let my long puts ride and they expire worthless

one more thing about LT care insurance. I'm not an expert but this thread might shed some light.

the point is, this is not something you pay for once and you are set. You are paying for it the rest of your life. In effect you can almost look at it as you are pre-paying the LT care. It's not cheap.

I am not a big fan of insurance but it is a necessary. I already pay home, car, umbrella, health and some life insurance. It's all not cheap, the idea of expanding that to an optional LT care insurance that I may never use and will cost hundreds of dollars a month forever.

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=191375

I am age 56 and single. I looked into Long Term Care Insurance but decided to pass. One big factor is that companies such as Met Life have gotten out of the business. Another factor is the problem with potentially rising premiums well after retiring. When companies exit a line of business, it tells you something.

But these are case by case situations and there is no "one size fits all" answer. If your premiums are still only $2,500 a year, the premiums might still be relatively cheap. What does your insurance cover. How many $$ a day? Do you have inflation protection? What is your waiting period? Does the policy pay for in home care? How solid financially is your insurance company?

It seemed from my research on this that the insurance company could leverage your money about three to one over what you could accumulate if you invested the premiums yourself. That was another factor.
.

You are doing the same thing as me selling puts on AMZN, except I am selling *far* out of the money puts and only picking up like $8 a contract.

I am very less likely to get called out but I can sell more contracts (as I think the ones I sold at $600 or $660 are safe).

time will tell.

I won't bother with calls for $700...not enough premium for taking on risk.