I don't doubt that there's going to be a vaccine early next year (by the time it can actually be produced, evidently they are way short on vials and production won't be instant), in fact I would be stunned if there wasn't. I just don't see how we get from 38.6 million unemployment claims to 'best 3rd quarter ever' in one month, because that's essentially what would have to happen in order for that to come true. Plus the US sells a lot around the world (and depends on things from around the world) which would make it really hard to come back that fast, even if people wanted to spend the money. I can't even buy simple things like 3d printer filament currently, supply chain is still hosed. I think the 3rd quarter is going to be better than the 2nd but still kind of rough. With that high of unemployment, you have a high percentage of people who can't buy cars, houses, vacations, etc.

Hotels and airlines, I think airlines will eventually recover in a smaller state, hotels there was already overbuilding going on and now business travel is probably going to be greatly reduced going forward. Probably add massive debt (at low rates) to their balance sheets too making it harder on profits moving forward. Same goes for Boeing, will eventually recover but the debt will drag on their earnings.

I would agree that there won't be a second shutdown no matter how bad it gets. I wouldn't rule out 4000 by 2022 either, that seems plausible with all the money flying around. To get there though, I would think that the consumer would need to recover at some point. 8.1% of homeowners are currently in forbearance, and the commercial real estate market is going to hurt bank lending for a while.

At the risk of sounding like a jerk, if you're asking these questions you've no business in the Options market.

I got iceman44 on one shoulder and taylor34 on the other.

I'm with iceman44 on this. I am normally a tech investor but the valuations are too out of whack right now. Now is the time that you buy the deep value stocks that have been beaten up. I went in fairly heavy on DAL, UAL, BA, LVS, and CNTY and the results have been great. We have seen that the government has put in a floor on this category of stocks. I am not keen on hotels and restaurants that are not quick service, but we shall see. I like MCD and SBUX in these areas, and have put my money behind them. I have also bought pretty heavy into RTX, REGN, and ROKU, which are bets on the future. I still have about 50% on the sidelines for strategic bets.

Well frankly iceman has been right and I have not. So maybe you should listen to him, lol.

Yes. He made a great call a few weeks back and the call looks like it is still standing the test.

There is no vaccine yet. Last week there was talk of a vaccine. This week there has been talk of another vaccine. And now the govt. is talking about a possible another round of stimulus. And now Kudlow is talking about the possibility of offering a reward for people to go back into the lion's den known as a job.

38 mil unemployed? No problem. The country is opening up.

The govt. keeps jawboning the market up with the right news feeds at the right time. It has been amazing to watch.

The Question: If the market starts pulling back, how low will it be ALLOWED to fall before another tranch of money gets thrown in?

It’s mostly theoretical anyway. Majority of my speculative money is now in the “bread and mortgage” bucket to protect against if wife also loses her job (as opposed to her current 33% haircut).

Has anyone looked into Brazil stock etfs? They’re getting pounded currently (much like the US 2 months ago) and it kind of looks like the bottom is in. They’re 50% down or so.

Boeing lays off 7000. As usual in these kinds of situations, the stock goes up.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/business/boeing-layoffs/index.html

" That brings job cuts at the company to more than 12,000 so far. Boeing had disclosed the 16,000-job reduction target last month. Additional rounds of layoffs are ahead "over the next few months," said the spokesman."

Boeing, being a defense contractor will not be allowed to fail. The only question is what is the proper price for a company that has seen its commercial business ravaged.

Is this argument real? Or is it choreographed to the entertainment value?

Two CNBC anchors get into it.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/27/media/cnbc-heated-on-air-exchange/index.html

Is wrestling real or...

Choreographed, but unscripted.

Lotta happy talk here, which overlooks the fact that a lot of businesses won’t re-open and a lot of jobs aren’t coming back. Now, if my business depended on the stock market going up up up for my clients, I’d pump sunshine too. But your predictions are basically predicated on the massive Fed stimulus, which didn’t help consumers and workers as much as rich people and large corporations. Somethings gotta give dude.

Like many others here, I’m sure, I’ll be investing all the way down.

One of the podcasts I was listening to was talking about this major disconnect today, and it makes sense from a big corporation/stock market point of view. Basically, all the small businesses are going under, leaving like Starbucks, McDonald’s, etc with way less competition. So big corps will make more money but the jobs are less and people will be making less money.

Dont confuse small businesses with the stock market. By and large, they move independently of each other. Right now, my heart goes out for the small businesses and I hope that they can reopen safely soon.

Wall Street is not Main Street. And Main Street is not Wall Street. What kills the goose benefits the gander in this odd little corner of the world.

Businesses plant must buy and sell to each other. They need people to buy their shit. This is going to become a huge problem. Renters are already getting threatened with eviction from their dwellings. People with no jobs, no savings and no home aren’t exactly going to fuel a September rally.

Hell, I’d love for Ice to be right. But as usual, I think he’s full of shit.

Had you listened to Ice at the end of March, you could have made a lot of money.

Nationalization of Commerce.

Motor Home and camper trailers are already high, look for them to go markedly higher.
Places to park them are priced in relation to their location, look for under-utilisied Campgrounds that are a little too far out right now but could skyrocket.
CarNation and other Auto-based domocile movements are real, and prevalent.

Boats that have a bed, head, and galley are evidently having good sales in this area. It could be related to low interest rates as these typically are financed for 20 years. Another benefit is that like a motor home, these can be considered a second home for tax purposes.

And if they have a sail you can travel south for cheap when the weather gets cold.

If anyone doesn’t feel good about money in the market right now then set it aside. That’s ok. If you want keep money in and add more then go ahead. That’s ok also. My thinking is if you are a small investor then go make some of your own money in the market and don’t let the big investors, investment companies and money managers take it all. One could invest in only companies that took no bail out money and didn’t do mass layoffs also. If you make money feel free to help charities, small businesses and/or folks with financial need out. I have been doing all of these things and will continue until things get better. Do whatever makes you comfortable, help folks if you can, be safe and hope people get cured and things get better ASAP is all we can do.

That all being said since this is an investment thread today I used candle stick charts as a reference to help me make a trade for the first time. Market was a shit show for growth tech stocks today. I wanted to look at adding more SHOP since it was headed down fast. It started the day around $750ish and I checked the candles as it headed down. It settled at around $690’s and with the charts signals showed bottom resistance and Bullish rise I got in at $702. It ended the day at $750 and $740 after hours. I added some QQQ at the same time when it was down 1.75% and ended up .50% by close. I would recommend looking at the charts. Just one more way to take in how trade patterns effect the market ups and downs. Oh and there will be plenty of ups and downs for a while in the uncertain market and uncertain world. I have a lot to learn.

Be safe and hang in

Savings accounts = little to no interest
CD’s = little to no interest
Money market funds = little to no interest
Bonds = little to no interest

When the only place an average saver can make money is stocks or riskier investments, I think the financial system is broken. This has a big potential for the stock market to become a bubble.

Retirees have only stocks to keep their money growing. The average person is not getting any kind of return for their savings. How are consumers going to restart the economy when they most have no savings and are now more in debt or behind on their bills? This is not a good situation for the economy overall.

What IF the Fed goes negative on the interest rates? Everything then gets worse.

I think in the future, the stock market may end up having wilder more unpredictable swings in both directions. Up and down.

yeah.. our emergency cash is sitting there making 1.6% in a high yield savings account.. which is a lot better than it was at our bank but still crap, and lowered from 2% when we opened the account. tempted to take half and put it in THQ (7% div, price down 6% since feb) and/or QYLD (12% div, price down 15% since feb) - both having monthly payouts. but, emergency is supposed to be cash so remains a thought. what do others do?

thanks to this thread i bought some STKS a month ago and it is helping undo some of my bad moves in march.

With P/E ratios like 23? Surely, you jest.

Incredibly, as of close yesterday, my 70/30 fund portfolio is -4.1% from the high and -1.4% from Jan 1st.

You can always make money if you happened to listen to the correct half of the peanut gallery. Just as many so-called experts said it was going down as there were who said it was going up. But I understand how it goes... the winners get to write the history.

if I had the disposable income I might have invested a bit more when the market went under $20k. But other than my normal monthly contributions to our various accounts and my 401k, I didn’t do anything extra. I did in fact consider pulling some out at various points between then and now, because I do think the market will go down and I would like some extra cash to buy as it does. Thankfully my advisor talked me out of cashing in.

My work should generate some timely extra income this summer and I’ll be positioned to dollar cost average during the market decline that I expect.

I don’t tend to try and time the market, but I do sometimes. My congratulations to any of normal folks that managed to make some dough recently. You might consider pulling it out. And if you are planning to, what’s your target and what are your triggers?

Exactly. Ice pops in when it suits him and disappears when the market isn’t going his way. Hopefully he’s a very good money manager, and can give us all great advice during the inevitable decline. I’m told that’s when financial advisors earn their commissions. But I imagine he’ll disappear for that.

Here is a video with Anthony Scaramucci giving his opinions on where the market is heading.

Short answer: It's going up.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/economy/us-gdp-first-quarter-revision/index.html

Yes, this “greatest economy in history” propaganda is just that. It’s aalready proven to be a house of cards that serves the rich - and penalize the rest - more in crisis than in normal times!

For me, it is a case by case basis based upon the investment. Some things are a trade. I am up 21% on Century Casinos, and will see where it goes. I put in a trailing stop, so I will exit either when I see fit or when it hits a threshold. On the other hand, I am up 14.5% on Raytheon Technologies. My broker asked if I wanted to cash in and the answer is no. I think that they are incredibly well positioned as a defense contractor and view them as a longer term hold.

I personally do not like this market because I think the fundamentals are out of whack. With that being said, you have to be very diligent and follow it closely, because conditions change. The days of set it and forget it are over and will burn you. You have to be active, and especially at higher investment levels. I was ridiculed by the peanut galley for when I pulled out and guess what? I got in at a much better price point and have made money the way back up. I still have roughly 45-50% on the sidelines and will deploy as the right opportunities arise.

At the end of the day, determine your risk tolerance and goals, lay out your strategy to meet your goals, and execute. If something is not working, make changes. This market is not necessarily running away from people so with some exceptions, you don't have to make a purchase at a certain time.

How dare us little people not be aware that the federal reserve is so firmly in the back pocket of the executive branch. And how dare we not be aware that they myth of free market capitalism was going to explode in front of our very eyes under a free market-touting administration.

(I've gotten in trouble in the past for politics on forums, so I'm trying my best to dance around it. But I don't know how you can have an honest discussion of economic issues without talking about politics (politely) as the two are so intertwined... especially lately.)

well i am no genius as i bought draft kings 2 weeks ago at 24 something and sold 2 days ago at 33.50 - well it's hitting 40 today - so i got in it for long term - but i couldn't resist the profit and thought there would be a pullback - i bet i will be waiting for that pull back for sometime. typical idiot move by me

thanks ed

Here are the truths as I see it:

The game is rigged. Always has been, always will be. You can either bitch about it or accept the fact, and play the game. You have a better chance of getting ahead in playing the game versus not playing.

The Federal Reserve and politicians of every stripe and party don't give a shit about the little people. They will always act in their best self interest. It doesn't matter if the Dems are in charge, the GOP is charge, or even the Whig Party (going back). You have to make your own plan and take control of your financial freedom.

Depending upon your age, Social Security may or may not be there for you in retirement. I am 42 and do not expect for social security to be there. Luckily, I have my own plan.

Financial literacy is key. It is shocking how many people do not know how interest works, the difference between good debt and bad debt, and the importance of building equity. Everybody needs to educate themselves because nobody else will. Whether you have 1,000 to invest or 1,000,000; the key is to employ sound, repeatable principles. This is how people work themselves up the ladder.

Don't beat yourself up. Just remember, you will never go broke by ringing the register.

Just saw this post for the first time. Funny enough, back in March I decided to dip a toe into day trading because the market had (in my opinion) bottomed out, and there was a lot of potential upside. My goal was to try to make enough during the economic recovery period to pay for a new stern pro in full.

Over the past 10 weeks my day trading has gone exceptionally well, and just this morning, I cleared the $10k milestone (almost 2 stern pros). My initial bets in Tesla, Netflix and Wayfair paid off huge as lockdown commenced. Now I am doing well with United Airlines and Apple.

I know that I will end up loosing 35% in taxes next April since I’m holding these stocks for only 1-2 days at a time which is a bummer, but right now I’m feeling pretty good about how things are going.

I don’t pretend to be an expert, and some of my bets got very lucky. For those of you on the sidelines I would consider getting in now or possibly waiting to see if the economy takes another downturn with so many Americans being unemployed. For those of you who have been investing for years I’d love to hear your recommendations and lessons learned. My house has room for 4 pins and I currently only have one (Stern Jurassic Park). My new goal is to make enough in investments to possibly add Stern’s new TMNT (Depending on upcoming gameplay streams) along with JJP’s Pirates and (fingers crossed) their upcoming GnR.

Happy Flipping!

Kevin

My stock portfolio is actually up a few percent on the year. Mostly due to some good buys in March, like Visa, Uber, and Amazon.

I know this is Pinside and the internet and folks come to vent, preach and not learn, but this “the game or rigged story” is not my world. Both my parents grew up poor with their real Dad’s taking off early in life. My Mom never met her Dad. Both were teachers and are on Public pensions now yet they are both “stock market” millionaires.

My Mom was always conservative with money growing up poor. After my parents got divorced in the late 90’s she wanted to be financially independent so she researched and put a portion of her money in stocks. She worked in the public sector years later and diligently saved in her 457 and built up a nice nest egg. She told me last year when I was talking with her about money before she retires that she had 100 shares of Amazon........that she bought for $20 a share in 1998?! I shit you not! She just retired at 76 and is a penny pincher to a fault. She will be fine.

My Dad who is now 78 got big on the tech boom 12 years ago and has been into stocks ever since. He owns a thousand shares of Facebook, thousands of shares of Apple and both got in on them at $50-$60 cost basis. He bought hundreds of shares of SHOP in the $300’s. I admit, I was scared to buy SHOP for $300. He got me in on DKNG at $18 last month though. He is just a nice, regular guy. He is doing fine.

Both my parents are collecting public sector pensions now.

I mean this in a nice/positive way when I say - you in the public sector can succeed in the market. Teachers can make money in the market. I mean you are teachers - research, research, research. You grew up poor? Yes you can do well in the market also. Take it from someone like me who saw in person how positive things can be even when things seem stacked against you.

I tend to agree that buy and hold (set and forget) isn’t a slam dunk these days. I also agree that you need to pay attention, and I’m not good at that day to day. I don’t think I could ever day trade, so I need to buy and sell stocks that should behave “normally” in traditional market trends (based on economic indicators). That seems like folly now.

What are the tax implications for short term trading these days? How much gain do you need to justify a trade so that taxes don’t negate the gains?

Short term gains are treated as ordinary income so it is taxed at whatever tax bracket you are in. Taxes don't negate gains; you just get your net taxed at whatever rate you are in. Now for an overall profit/loss, you have to look at what your fees are in what you pay for your trade. This is where you can potentially get upside down.

Net-net: As long as your gain - minus your taxes and fees are greater than 0, you made money.

Let me clarify my "game is rigged" terminology. Bank Interest rates yield nothing, CD's yield nothing, and bonds yield next to nothing. The only way you can make money is to invest in real estate or the market. If you look at mortgage rates, the people that would benefit the most from them can't get them, as they do not have the assets to qualify for them. On the other hand, if you have X amount of money or a certain credit score, you can get benefits (rates, terms,access to loans, etc) that others can not get.

In the stock market, retail investors do not have the same access to investments and opportunities that qualified investors have, who do not have the same access as big financial traders, who do not have the same access as hedge fund managers. Different rules, different benefits, different economies of scale. Plus, you put in fees, commissions, etc, you might not make as much as you think.

With all that being said, these are still the best games around. You have to do what I have done, what your parents have done, and what others have done, and get in the game. Start investing, even if it is small, and build up from there. If not, you are not building any equity in yourself and your family, and you will never be able to go up the ladder. As part of this, you have to build up your financial literacy, because if not, you are setting yourself up for ruin. As you build your portfolio and start doing smarter money things, you see that more opportunities are available to you. You are not getting as good as a shake as others with more money, but you are doing better than you were.

The dirty truth that people don't want to say is that the smarter you get about money, and the more money you make/grow, the more opportunities are presented to you, and the better your financial life gets. This is why the rich get richer, because the table and advantages are slanted in this direction.

Going back to my prior comment, you can either say this sucks and do nothing, or understand it, and lean into this fact and play the game. I understand the game is rigged, but I chose to play because it is better than the alternative.

Ok a really important question from an Aussie.
We are currently at .66 to the USD do you guys see the Aussie dollar climbing? I think we got to .55 when this flu broke out. 2 things i will do if it does. Buy pinball and buy the US dollar.

South Korea’s external debt is 27% of GDP. USA is 115%, Australia is 126%. The pound is the oldest living currency, but the UK is 313% debt-to-GDP.

If you want to gamble on Forex, I’d say invest in currencies for non-authoritarian countries that are well below 100% debt-to-GDP.

Jotted down some rough draft thoughts this morning for my commentary I'll send out later today. China news conference should be interesting.
CHINA TENSIONS ESCALATE.pdf

I see what you're saying, but in 2008 one sector (the 2.5% real estate sector) took down everyone, starting with finance. The energy sector (3%) has hurt the economy many times like in 2005 with Katrina. If Biden wins and reverses the tax cuts, then profits would be slashed by quite a bit too.

On a side note, why are you even buying stocks ice? For the average person who may not have the means it makes sense as an entry point, but you clearly have the means to actually own businesses or real estate which would make way more money than the market. A lot of businesses are only at a 3x multiple, that's substantially better than anything you could get from Wall Street. Or besides wall street, private equity makes way more too as an investor as well with tax advantages. And it's not affected by tweets and political squabbles on a daily basis.

Just curious as to what business you think have the most potential for profit in the next 5 to 10 years. Been thinking about this as well .

Post 2008 REITS rallied 300% over the next 2 years. Buying a handful now. STOR, MPW, FRT, BRX, IRM, BAM. There are 24 positions in my Core REIT model.

As for “buying stock”. I’m just giving you guys some of my own ideas fwiw

I manage about $600 million of client assets. That's my business. I also own real estate which is a bad investment by comparison. Terrible actually!

But when I can make +100% returns since April 2nd in stocks like TTD, TWLO, SHOP and a few others

Mix in MELI, OKTA, SE, AYX, ZM, TDOC, MGB

And AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL etc

Read my commentary and take it for what it’s worth.

I’ve crushed it for myself and my clients

Just bought some CCL for myself. "in the ditch" that's coming back