Actually what I am “moping” about is the fact the fed reserve is printing money to prop the stock market up and my grandchildren will be the ones paying it back.

It's less moping and more lamenting about the exploded myth of American free market capitalism. But hey, might as well get while the gettin' is good for the big guys. I'd abandon those principles too if I was rich enough and could buy enough influence in Washington D.C. to have my mistakes mitigated and my good decisions magnified. Not a bad deal if you can get it.

I’ll help get us back on track. Sold my Teva for a healthy profit today. I believe this stock will easy get to $20 in a year. Hoping for a pull back to get back in.

Congratulations. I always like to hear about someone doing well.

I would invest, any suggestions? I'm in gold and silver, about the only thing I'm sure of is that this money printing is going to cause them to skyrocket eventually. Bonds seem worthless, stocks seem overvalued, maybe some reits? Some of those got really pounded and haven't recovered yet.

I think it's not gloating about the market being up or down, I think it's just disbelief on what's happening currently, and not being able to determine what's going to happen next. Fundamentals say down but artificial market forces say up.

Regarding the market, I believe we are in for another drop as the market ultimately wants more stimulus. In order to get it, the market makers will create volatility again and it starts with Q2 earnings. Volatility is what makes the rich, richer at an accelerated rate. Most people don’t understand the time/money equation or the law of averages to understand how to beat it. The billionaires are being given a gift and they will only become richer, creating the largest wealth gap ever seen in this country. The wealthy friends of the politicians know exactly when the govt. will pull the trigger on the stimulus and exactly how to play it.

You mean creating a larger wealth gap. The largest wealth gap in history already exists in this county and has for years. A good decade or more.

Crisis like this just make it more pronounced. Because it takes money to make money. It’s not rocket science to abstract the rest.

If the market gets back into mid 24s I’ll probably take some money out, just so I can invest it when the market inevitably spirals. I’ll take an 8% hit now, but like I said, it takes money to make money, and if you can’t take advantage of the big drop than you’re not really even in the game. And trust me, it is a game.

Have you guys noticed that the usual defensive plays (Coke, Pepsi, J&J, Proctoc and Gamble, etc) have all rolled over? I was checking them out tonight and their charts are almost identical, up mid april but all down a decent amount since. Typically those names show strength in a recession. Berkshire has also rolled over.

Are there some gems in here that could be worth looking at? The dividends on some of these are pretty decent for where they're at now. Wish I could pick individual stocks in my 401k, I don't really want to own the general market right now, but I do like anything that pays a dividend in excess of what bonds are yielding.

In Maryland they can't -
against MD law.

It is amazing that no matter how bad the news the Fed is able to keep the market in the 23000 - 24000 range.

Just watching on the sidelines as never witnessed this before.

I would be very careful about picking stocks for dividends right now unless you know that there is a dividend coming (Carlyle Group is an example). A lot of people in here have thrown out names based upon dividends to only see this get pulled. I would pick good stocks that have upside right now and focus on that, with dividends being a cherry on top. This is the inverse of what most people look at, but we are in interesting times.

ABR announced a $0.30 dividend this morning. Same as last quarter, but last quarter they were in the $15-$17 range and they closed yesterday in the upper $6 area.

Watched The Big Short last night and 99 Homes again last night interesting. Being in Australia does anyone know the figures of the USA of unemployment now versus then?

Seen the first and enjoyed it (also read that one and most of Michael Lewis's books). Haven't seen 99 Homes. I will look for that...

Skip ahead to 20:27 (mm:ss) --

Here is the Dow. My questions are related to:

1 ) Is The Fed going to keep pumping to get the Dow back to where it was at 29,000?

2) Or will it be satisfied if the Dow holds this level?

3) And how far will the Dow be allowed to drop before the spigot gets opened up again?

And this is an election year.

Screen Shot 2020-05-08 at 4.34.05 PM (resized).png

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

From 1929 to present day.

I'm starting to think the low is in because the fed won't allow it to go lower.

What I don't know is what's going to happen in a month or two when this hasn't gone away still and there's no end on the horizon. Like there is a huge commercial real estate issue that's going to happen and I don't know the ramifications from that (if there are any). I would assume that unemployment will be extended indefinitely and we will spend double what we've spent already.

We'll see what happens next week when it retests the high it put in a couple weeks ago. If it bounces off that, that might put in a ceiling for a while. If it goes above that, well then maybe it will get back to February highs.

That’s a good point. The “wealth transfer”, if there is such a thing, definitely happens when the little guy pulls money out when things are low and buys back when things are higher, so don’t let it happen! Stop this by staying in during down turns.

With the millions of people being laid off, like some of the rest of you, I am scratching my head with the last couple of weeks of market action. I wonder how long the Federal pump and bump can last.

Airline employees make real good wages. They will find nothing else in the job market that even comes close to what they currently make. That is not good for consumer spending.

This airline bailout will end on October 1. The election will only be 7 more weeks away. I am wondering if authorities will be considering extending this airline bailout.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/10/business/airline-job-cuts/index.html

" US airline workers have been largely spared from the carnage that's pushed the country's unemployment to record highs since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. But those same workers -— roughly 750,000 pilots, flight attendants, baggage handlers, mechanics and others — will soon be among the most at-risk for losing their jobs."

" But executives have been blunt that job cuts are coming once that prohibition lifts on October 1, with estimates that up to a third of the sector's jobs could disappear."

" Deep, permanent cuts in the well-paying jobs found across the industry are inevitable come fall, even if the economy has improved by then, because it's clear that it will take years for air travel to return to previous levels.

Did you get a chance to watch its a great movie.

They're talking about more stimulus, so I would assume that will be positive for stocks again.

One thing I heard this weekend from Sam Zell was that the problem right now is that there has been no 'price discovery', meaning that the prices of everything are based upon the fed's influence. So that's the reason there's so much confusion on what's going on with pricing assets.

What's on everyone's watch list this week??

new Rick & Morty episode, The Last Dance, and the Mariners documentary on YouTube

Solar Opposites

My 401k is now positive for the year, it’s incredible!

On a side note it feels like the market is being driven by a handful of Tech stocks.. Apple, Amazon, google ect.. I think there are still bargains out there but it feels risky to jump into some of those sectors.. Airlines, Oil, MGM/LVS ect

Sure is a big bounce !

I have bought into a few ASX retail and energy stocks on the way up.

Will we will peak then fall off a cliff big time again ?
N (resized).JPG

It’s been a great 40 days!

AAPL, SHOP, TTD, OKTA, TWLO, V, PYPL, AYX EPD, MELI etc etc etc

The technology bull market is full steam ahead. Why fight it? Bottoms up, forget indexes

I’m looking to build my stocks “in the ditch” model that will ultimately reach the destination

JPM, CCL, TJX, BA, EPD, DIS for starters

Banking on a boom boom 2021

From over a year ago

Also over a year ago, how did TDOC slip in there Jan of 2019?

I’m still watching BA, if they get the 737 approval the stock could really take off! It has really been left behind in this rally.

Takes patience for the story to play itself out.

Just the positive news announcements coming should help BA outperform the index by a wide margin

Buy BEFORE the news

Like Disney.

Tech has been driven to levels too far too fast in the short term

But I’m waiting to buy on any dips!

Mine too! But it’s a smaller positive number than on Jan 1

Is Disney even a buy here? The 5 year chart basically shows them at $120 in 2015, then going nowhere for 4 years, up last year a lot but now they're basically not any lower than they were in Jan of 2019. Is this company better off than early 2019 now? Looking past the theme park issue, they're going to have content issues going forward, and the big Marvel and Star Wars things have played out. Sports may be down for a while too.

I don't see a $107 stock here. I see a company that's going to struggle going forward for a while, and it may be 3 or 4 years before they get back to last year's heights. I guess my thought is, why take a chance on a company that's going to struggle for quite a while and isn't even really priced that cheap, when you can buy things like Apple that have craploads of cash and aren't going to suffer like Disney as much.

Here is a YT vivd on Disney. Everybody wears a mask ( I'm not encouraged that Americans will follow suit). In the eating area every other seat is empty. At the lines the markers all are spaced 6 feet apart. I don't see it happening for DIS. But what do I know?

I did visit Universal Studios Orlando in 1995 on a July 4th weekend. We were packed like sardines in the lines and on the rides. Call It The Big Squeeze. I wonder if we will be hearing about $30.00 hamburgers?
================================================

As a guest, this is what we all want. Wide open seating and short lines. This video is shot in China so I don't know if the crowd could be considered authentic.

I'm lazy. Does BA trade with any LEAPS?

Dollar General looks interesting for research for long term.

https://www.mashed.com/165989/the-real-reason-dollar-store-food-is-so-cheap/

"Many dollar stores don't buy the land their stores are on either. Meaning that if they're not doing well, they can just pick up and move. If a Dollar General can keep the lights on and skip out on the pricey property taxes that a Publix is going to pay, it's going to be able to sell its food for much cheaper."

Read More: https://www.mashed.com/165989/the-real-reason-dollar-store-food-is-so-cheap/?utm_campaign=clip

People are going to be poor. They still have to eat.

Screen Shot 2020-05-11 at 11.03.31 PM (resized).png

There was no Disney+ in Jan 2019. It launched in November 2019. With 50+ million subscribers already, I'd argue Disney is much better off now than they were in early 2019. It's turning into a Netflix competitor that also happens to have theme parks as a side business.

Who Farted about an hour before close today and caused the sell off?

Fauci

This was the first time in a long time where there was momentum selling at the end of the day. The way it's been over the last month is that up days tend to strengthen and down days tend to weaken.

My guess is Boeing. BA was off on heavy volume.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/business/boeing-orders-deliveries-coronavirus/index.html

" Boeing was dealt a double blow in April as deliveries of new planes ground to a near halt and canceled orders continued to climb in response to an unprecedented drop in air travel caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

" When asked if it's possible that a major US airline could be forced to go out of business, Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun said that was possible.
"I don't want to get too predictive on that subject, but yes, most likely," Calhoun said in an interview on the Today Show Tuesday when asked about the chance of an airline going out of business. "'Apocalyptic' does accurately describe the moment."

Lots of bulls in this thread. Is anybody hedging with precious metal ETFs? I used to buy physical silver and gold, but the premiums are crazy right now. GLD and SLV seem like a decent inflation hedge. I won’t go over 10% but it’s something to consider.

[To clarify: I have no physical gold or silver right now. I sold when I was laid off in 2016 and I regret doing it]

It is going to be interesting to watch retail prices for the next 12 months. Deflation is becoming a real concern for economists.
Right now food prices, where most people are spending, appear to be somewhat inflated likely because of supply chain issues and higher grocery store demand. Most other retail goods have much less demand presently and prices are starting to trend down. Deflated prices sound good because you could possibly get more for your money, but when a company's profits drop they likely do layoffs or less hiring causing more job losses which causes even less retail demand. Deflation can also cause companies to make less variety of products (less choice for the consumer) to slow losses or maximize smaller profits.

So...uhhhh. What the @#$% went on today to cause everything (I had) to tank?

Fed said recovery is “Highly Uncertain”. That’s all it takes apparently. I thought the market already knew this was already pretty obvious.

I knew there had to be something I missed.
I'll hold until tomorrow and hope I can get some of my losses of today back.

DCFAN you’re basically describing 70’s stagflation.