(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    There are 4589 posts in this topic. You are on page 79 of 92.
    #3901 70 days ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Here are the positions that I have taken over the past two weeks, with about half of them coming yesterday. I love tech stocks but am not touching them at these levels. I don't think this market is running away from anybody at this time so I have been waiting until after earnings for some. For what it is worth, these purchases represent quarter to half positions, with the thought that depending upon performance I can average up or down.
    BA
    DAL
    UAL
    MCD
    SBUX
    COST
    CNTY
    LVS

    I have been watching BA like a hawk! It’s down almost 75% from its highs. I know demand is down for new aircraft but over the long haul demand will come back. I think BA might be a good long term buy and hold if you bought in the $120 to $135 range.. anyone else have thoughts on BA?

    #3902 70 days ago

    I made the call a little early to sell everything but hoping (not to everyone else's detriment) that this is the start of another downturn.

    Also a thought about Amazon - I have made an effort NOT to buy anything else from them for now, it takes 4 to 6 weeks for crap to ship now unless it is deemed "essential". I think this spells trouble...

    #3903 70 days ago
    Quoted from WeirPinball:

    I made the call a little early to sell everything but hoping (not to everyone else's detriment) that this is the start of another downturn.
    Also a thought about Amazon - I have made an effort NOT to buy anything else from them for now, it takes 4 to 6 weeks for crap to ship now unless it is deemed "essential". I think this spells trouble...

    I wonder how regional this is. I'm getting stuff a few days later almost no matter what it is. We have a distribution center in Tucson, but I doubt they have some of the random camera/lighting stuff I've ordered recently. Got all of that in a handful of days. Prime member, not a shareholder.

    #3904 70 days ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    I wonder how regional this is. I'm getting stuff a few days later almost no matter what it is.

    Same here. Most of the stuff I've ordered recently has come really fast.

    #3905 70 days ago
    Quoted from gweempose:

    Most of the stuff I've ordered recently has come really fast.

    Ditto. I was shopping for some Oracal vinyl, one day everything said like 10 day delivery, then the very next day it was at three days and delivered in just two.

    #3906 70 days ago
    Quoted from gweempose:

    Same here. Most of the stuff I've ordered recently has come really fast.

    Same thing here in CA for my recent orders. Said few weeks out and in 2-3 days the delivery was made.

    #3907 70 days ago
    Quoted from gweempose:

    Same here. Most of the stuff I've ordered recently has come really fast.

    Same here. I order silly crap that I don’t really care when it arrives, and it’s always here in a few days. I am a Prime member.

    #3908 70 days ago

    We have a major hub here - so not sure what the problem is. Ordered some stuff April 16th and won't be here (estimate) until the 7th. Guess that would be like 3 weeks.

    #3909 70 days ago
    Quoted from WeirPinball:

    We have a major hub here - so not sure what the problem is. Ordered some stuff April 16th and won't be here (estimate) until the 7th. Guess that would be like 3 weeks.

    I said the same yesterday. I just ordered a CD and a pair of slippers. Both in stock. Both won't arrive for about 10 days even with prime. If I look at something like food, that gets here in 2 days since it's "essential".

    #3910 70 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I said the same yesterday. I just ordered a CD and a pair of slippers. Both in stock. Both won't arrive for about 10 days even with prime. If I look at something like food, that gets here in 2 days since it's "essential".

    There is a trick to it though. If you order something non-essential, then do another order for something essential, sometimes your non essential item will get shipped faster if they can ship it from the same warehouse as the essential item.

    #3911 70 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I have been watching BA like a hawk! It’s down almost 75% from its highs. I know demand is down for new aircraft but over the long haul demand will come back. I think BA might be a good long term buy and hold if you bought in the $120 to $135 range.. anyone else have thoughts on BA?

    My thoughts are similar to yours. I'm also watching Disney, but I think it should be a lot lower. Given the near term prognosis of both Boeing and Disney, plus a guaranteed disaster in their April-June quarters, I've been hoping that both would drift downwards some more to make it worthwhile to buy and hold for a year or more. This morning's trade activity is the first that's made any sense to me recently.

    #3912 70 days ago

    Did Elon finally lose his mind today?

    elon (resized).JPG
    #3913 70 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Did Elon finally lose his mind today?

    Steve Balmer made a similar statement about Microsoft years ago. MSFT took a small dump because of what the said.

    #3914 70 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I have been watching BA like a hawk! It’s down almost 75% from its highs. I know demand is down for new aircraft but over the long haul demand will come back. I think BA might be a good long term buy and hold if you bought in the $120 to $135 range.. anyone else have thoughts on BA?

    You could sell the Jan 2021 puts for $30? If it goes down, cuts your cost down to $103.70. If it goes up, you make $30 a share. Another strategy.

    #3915 70 days ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    You could sell the Jan 2021 puts for $30? If it goes down, cuts your cost down to $103.70. If it goes up, you make $30 a share. Another strategy.

    I wish I understood options well enough to do something like that.

    Lucky for me I don’t have to worry about losing much $$.. most of you probably have more in your cars ashtray than my net worth

    #3916 70 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    I wish I understood options well enough to do something like that.
    Lucky for me I don’t have to worry about losing much $$.. most of you probably have more in your cars ashtray than my net worth

    There's not much to it. He's saying to sell the Boeing January 2021 $130 put for $30.

    What that means is if the price is below $130 in January, you are forced to buy 100 shares, but with your $30 discount, you're getting them for $100 a share. If it's above $130 in January, you keep $30 * 100 = $3000 profit for your time.

    #3917 70 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    There's not much to it. He's saying to sell the Boeing January 2021 $130 put for $30.
    What that means is if the price is below $130 in January, you are forced to buy 100 shares, but with your $30 discount, you're getting them for $100 a share. If it's above $130 in January, you keep $30 * 100 = $3000 profit for your time.

    Exactly, if you are going to buy the shares anyway, you have the down side risk by owing the shares directly. The only problem with this strategy is you have limited your upside to $30. So if the shares explode back to $300, you can only make $30 a share.

    #3918 70 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Did Elon finally lose his mind today?

    Maybe he's doing another Joe Rogan interview?

    #3919 70 days ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Exactly, if you are going to buy the shares anyway, you have the down side risk by owing the shares directly. The only problem with this strategy is you have limited your upside to $30. So if the shares explode back to $300, you can only make $30 a share.

    Take the $30 put proceeds and buy an in the money call and put on a synthetic long position

    #3920 70 days ago

    It’s probably a bad move considering how hard this thing has and still is hitting them but when Carnival hit 8-9 per share I bought a few hundred shares with a bit of cash I don’t mind loosing. If it works out that might be a fun little entrance into more active trading, if not, oh well.

    Otherwise sticking to my regular boring regular deposits into long term mixed. 401k took a good hit at first but now has already made up half of what was lost.

    Still a good 20 years from retirement so in the end probably won’t even be a blip.

    #3921 69 days ago

    I haven't had any problems with shipments from Amazon. I have noticed that I don't see the blue Amazon delivery trucks out anymore. I think my packages are being delivered by UPS again (or Fedex).

    I think the death of retail has been extremely sped up by the Coronavirus. I'm not one that usually likes to head out to malls or strip-malls, so I've been ordering online for the past 10 years. If you don't need something right away, why bother driving an hour and dealing with unknowns, when you don't have to? With people being forced to buy online for the past 6 weeks, how many will return to brick and mortar?

    I know that I started getting pickup and delivery for my groceries, and it's much more convenient. I doubt I'll ever go back to normal grocery shopping, unless I need something right away.

    g54sy5c08aw41 (resized).jpg
    #3922 69 days ago
    Quoted from mcluvin:

    Maybe he's doing another Joe Rogan interview?

    lpu9nx0of8w41 (resized).png
    #3923 69 days ago

    Dang!
    https://apple.news/ARNmSKUfdRASmwlht_z0X7A

    D433AE24-9684-4E3B-BF1A-87894E11CD1C (resized).png
    #3924 69 days ago
    Quoted from Baiter:

    Considering the latest trend amongst Millennials is to create and invest in conscientious companies, I'd have to think what Amazon has been doing by being one of the few companies in the world proactively trying to address the coronovirus crisis (rather than try to react to it to stay alive), that will play out well in the long run. It is inconvenient to get what we want in 2 weeks rather than 2 days, but it makes sense in this situation. At the other end of this Amazon will have massively beefed up their distribution capabilities to address their backlogs, and it will make it that much easier for them to no longer need to outsource parts of that distribution chain and that will help out their bottom line. That could be 2022 though.

    Amazon conscientious? No. And if your theory is true - and I hope it is - maybe the opposite will happen. Amazon is convenient, it is not good or even a necessarily a good thing. But probably a good investment, because when have ethics or morality ever mattered in the stock market?

    #3925 69 days ago

    I own BRKB. They are required to report change in investment value as part of their profit and loss, even though Warren has said in his annual letter that it's stupid as a metric.

    I'm not worried.

    #3926 68 days ago

    Boeing.

    Well, actually, Spirit Aerosystems. Spirt used to be Boeing. Until Boeing sold its Wichita division to Goldman Sachs and a Canadian firm. For get the long story. Spirit builds the fuselage sections for the 737. When the 737 Max was grounded Spirit kept building and stacking fuselages for the eventual return of the 737 Max to the skies.

    Boeing thought the FAA would allow the Max to be air worthy by the end of last year. When that did not happen, Spirt had little choice but to lay off 2800 employees in January.

    And then Covid-19 threw a wrench into it all.

    Spirit has just announced that it is laying off another 1,450 people. I assume the 2800 will not be coming back. This is not good for the job market in my town.

    https://www.kansas.com/news/business/aviation/article242446291.html

    I bring this article because some of you have your eye on Boeing. I don't know what you tell you other than I do not think you need be in a rush. I think Boeing will be dead money for awhile.

    #3927 68 days ago

    Oh, yeah. Buffett sold all of his airline stocks. He is back on train time.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html

    “I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year,” he said. “You’ve got too many planes.”

    "Prior to 2016, Buffett had eschewed airline investments and had been so opposed to putting money into the industry in the past that he told shareholders in a 2007 note that “if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.” .....

    #3928 67 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Oh, yeah. Buffett sold all of his airline stocks. He is back on train time.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html
    “I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year,” he said. “You’ve got too many planes.”
    "Prior to 2016, Buffett had eschewed airline investments and had been so opposed to putting money into the industry in the past that he told shareholders in a 2007 note that “if a farsighted capitalist had been present at Kitty Hawk, he would have done his successors a huge favor by shooting Orville down.” .....

    That was pretty sneaky what he did a few weeks back, selling just enough of his airline shares to drop under 10% ownership so he didn't have to disclose future sales. Then he sold it all.

    #3929 67 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    That was pretty sneaky what he did a few weeks back, selling just enough of his airline shares to drop under 10% ownership so he didn't have to disclose future sales. Then he sold it all.

    What's that old phrase? Don't hate the player, hate the game.

    #3930 67 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Oh, yeah. Buffett sold all of his airline stocks. He is back on train time.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-buffett-says-berkshire-sold-its-entire-position-in-airlines-because-of-the-coronavirus.html
    “I don’t know that three, four years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year,” he said. “You’ve got too many planes.”
    ” .....

    I think he's dead on with that assessment.

    #3931 66 days ago

    sold about 6% of my 401k off yesterday thinking the couple down days were the start of reality setting in. total now 22% in cash on sidelines.

    as i am a counter indicator so far this apocalypse.. it will instead be green until i decide i am missing out / buy in when its actually about to drop.

    #3932 66 days ago

    I missed the part where The Fed was going to start buying junk bonds.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/business/j-crew-bankruptcy-retail-coronavirus/index.html

    " And for the first time ever, the Federal Reserve will direct the purchase of corporate bonds, including junk bonds."

    I am starting to get the feeling that every time the Dow drops a couple of hundred points The Fed will step in.

    #3933 66 days ago

    If the cruise ships go under, they will also take out all of the people who depend on the ships to bring in the tourist trade.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/business/norwegian-cruise-line/index.html

    #3935 66 days ago

    Iceman has not been around for awhile? Did the virus get him?

    #3936 66 days ago

    Quite a drop at the end of trading today.

    #3937 66 days ago
    Quoted from ReplayRyan:

    Quite a drop at the end of trading today.

    I saw that too. Oxy had a decent drop in a short span. Any idea what the drop was from? I thought that with the American Petrolum Institute report coming out later today, and likely to be a positive one, that oil/gas stocks would have risen near the end.

    #3938 66 days ago

    Mind boggling to think that the economy has been shut down for nearly 2 months, we have 30+ million people unemployed and the Nasdaq is only down 1% for the year.

    The Fed is in a helicopter hovering over Wall Street shoveling cash at anything and everything!

    #3939 66 days ago

    Just further proof that the stock market is not a good indicator of economic health.

    #3940 66 days ago
    Quoted from mattosborn:

    Just further proof that the stock market is not a good indicator of economic health.

    Trouble is the ones who believe that are the ones that vote.

    #3941 66 days ago

    I have said it a few times and will say it again: Dividends don't matter right now. They are being canceled left and right. Find good stocks that are depressed, buy those, and if you get lucky, you will get a dividend on top of things as a cherry on top.

    #3942 66 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Mind boggling to think that the economy has been shut down for nearly 2 months, we have 30+ million people unemployed and the Nasdaq is only down 1% for the year.
    The Fed is in a helicopter hovering over Wall Street shoveling cash at anything and everything!

    Also mind blowing is that with a number as big as 30+ million, the unemployment rate itself is still pretty darn low.

    However, I don’t think were seeing the full impact of a shutdown on this scale yet which probably has a lot to do with the markets being kind of neutral right now, just a lag.

    My gut (as meaningless as it is) feels that the markets will be really rough the next few months as actual impact starts to solidify. I already made my bets, now just going to continue my regular diversified 401k deposits and hang on until next year.

    #3943 66 days ago

    was thinking we are in a Heisenberg uncertainty situation.. we won't know how many businesses have failed until we try to reopen.

    #3944 66 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Mind boggling to think that the economy has been shut down for nearly 2 months, we have 30+ million people unemployed and the Nasdaq is only down 1% for the year.
    The Fed is in a helicopter hovering over Wall Street shoveling cash at anything and everything!

    It isn't shut down.

    #3945 66 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    It isn't shut down.

    It is here!

    #3946 66 days ago

    This is Delta Airlines. When the news came out that Buffett sold all of his airline shares, DAL and the others did not move. That news was already baked in.

    This is not the best chart. But it will work. The way I see it is that you really cannot play this stock. At all. Going short is probably the way to go, but at this level you risk getting caught in a short squeeze. But other than that, I think the stock will just start drifting lower. Slowly.

    Screen Shot 2020-05-05 at 9.48.09 PM (resized).png

    Here is a chart for AAPL from April/01/2000 May/06/03. It was along summer with APPL bouncing around over the place. This was before all of AAPL's stock splits. The price at the time was ranging from $75.00 per share to about $55.00 per share. The big drop was something like $57.00 at close. One minute after the market closed, Apple warned and the stock finished in the after hours at around $28.00 per share. It opened the next morning at $22.00.

    Low low points were priced at $10.00 per share.

    Screen Shot 2020-05-05 at 10.34.34 PM (resized).png

    From Sept. 2000 all through until May 2003, AAPL went nowhere. Finally, in May 2003, APPL popped. And by 5/6/2004, AAPL finally above the Sept. 2000 closing price of $28.00 per share.

    Screen Shot 2020-05-05 at 10.36.43 PM (resized).png

    Finally, almost 5 years later, AAPL passed its old high in 2000.

    Screen Shot 2020-05-05 at 10.41.38 PM (resized).png

    Anyway, I think DAL drifts. If it has cancelled its dividend, it might be worth a short, but I would need to look at short interest and see what some short interest ratios are. But I'm thinking is probably a highly shorted stock and that can be dangerous and costly.

    NOTE: You never(or rarely never) want to short a dividend paying stock unless your crystal ball is 100% perfect. When you are short, you get to pay the dividend. Your stock broker handles that transaction for you---automatically

    #3947 65 days ago

    Me after seeing that Disney had a huge earnings miss, cut their dividend and the stock is up today..

    F8C699FD-93A8-4687-8D11-E9B82A46361A.gif
    #3948 65 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Me after seeing that Disney had a huge earnings miss, cut their dividend and the stock is up today..[quoted image]

    They were already down 1/3 from their high. They are reopening one of the Chinese parks this week. They are profitable and the dividend cut is a positive for preserving cash. $100 is a fair price.

    #3949 65 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Me after seeing that Disney had a huge earnings miss, cut their dividend and the stock is up today..[quoted image]

    You might want to shift your perspective to look at the bigger picture instead of short term. The economy has slowed, but it hasn't "shut down". Factories and construction and retail are still taking place, especially construction which has tamped up. Big difference between slow down and shut down.

    As far as Disney, plans are underway to reopen and furloughs have been made for now.

    #3950 65 days ago

    Who wants to buy some government bonds?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasury-says-its-already-borrowed-half-of-3-trillion-it-needs-for-coronavirus-relief-as-it-lays-out-borrowing-plan-2020-05-06?mod=home-page

    "Treasury shifts to longer-term debt offerings, including $20 billion in new 20-year bonds, to finance ballooning deficit"

    *** " U.S. Treasury will sell 20-year bonds for the first time..."

    3-year T-notes will yield 0.247%

    10-year notes will yield 0.721%

    30 year bonds will yield 1.419%

    " The department will auction $42 billion in 3-year Treasury notes TMUBMUSD03Y, 0.247% on May 11 and $32 billion in 10-year notes TMUBMUSD10Y, 0.721% on May 12. The government will also sell $22 billion in 30-year bonds TMUBMUSD30Y, 1.419% on May 13."

    I doubt the govt. will ever let rates rise very much from these levels. If it allowed rates to rise it would never be able to pay it all back. So, the economy will inflate and inflation will be the next thing coming and the govt. will pay it back with inflated dollars. Cash will be worth nothing. But 1.419% on a 30 year is not worth much either.

    It was not all that long ago that 30 year bonds were not being issued anymore.

    We are so in hock.

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