I know, it's crazy! As I type this Boeing is up about 6% after announcing that they'd burned through $4.3B in cash last quarter and their flawed commercial airliner recertification has been pushed back to late Summer. Airlines are cancelling orders, Boeing's cutting staff, and their primary airliner's future just slid further into regulatory purgatory, meanwhile in upside down world their stock climbs in value.

Disney continues to climb too while most of their assets are closed down. I guess it's all in anticipation of a return to more normal conditions, but it's all too rich for my blood right now. Home sales also crashed 21% in March. I've been wrong on every instinct I've had for the past 5 weeks. Still, I sense a big correction is inevitable in the not too distant future, perhaps after next quarter losses arrive based on 3 months in this quagmire instead of only 1 month. Maybe that instinct will be wrong too, like all of my others and upside down world is the new normal.

I am 100% with you on this, my 401k is 30% equities and 70% cash. I was not wrong on how devastating this has been for the economy, I was wrong about the fact that all bad news would be seen as good news.. shit earnings and no forward guidance.. “it’s priced in”

Either way to me it is far too dangerous and stupid to go long now. I’m sitting on 2 brain tumors and the last thing I need to do is make a bad decision on my wife and daughters future.

Boeing is getting rid of 16,000 employees. That makes me guess that Boeing did not take some of the govt. money related to keeping employees employed.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/business/boeing-loss-staff-cuts/index.html

And then you have this headline: " Boeing's stock surges after wider-than-expected loss and revenue miss, but free cash flow beat."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/boeings-stock-surges-after-wider-than-expected-loss-and-revenue-miss-but-free-cash-flow-beat-2020-04-29?mod=home-page
=======================================

So, now the metrics for success has been altered to not how much money the company has made, or lost, but rather a different metric, free cash flow, is being trotted out.

Iceman, you made a great call 20 days ago. It has been nothing but upbeat news coming from the powers that are running the show. It is like, not only is the news being managed, the timing of how the news breaks seems managed, as well.

Any small piece of news that hints things are getting better gets top billing.

It has been amazing to watch.

They all need to shed jobs and it looks like that some are doing just that. We're going to see much higher unemployment for the next few years, but that isn't such a bad thing.

Once they lean themselves, the road to recovery will begin. Disney will be just fine although I am assuming most of their capital improvements will be delayed.

It is all relative. And it all depends on if one is living in the trenches or looking down from the tower as a semi-interested observer.

For most people, being unemployed is terrible thing.

Is the economy going to do good in the future? Depends if you have a job or not.

Apparently I shouldn't have sold on oil yesterday.
I still believe that we will continue to climb to maxing storage levels as the next few weeks go by.
But if they keep offering hopeful treatment news at opportune times, maybe the storage issue won't matter. Who knows haha.

Get back to me in 16 months and let me know how you’re oil is doing?
I’m guessing it’ll look pretty darn good.

Tesla up $80.00 per share after hours, so in total Tesla is up $107.00 per share today.. Shorts are being destroyed in this market!
B86CE442-2393-4C27-91B0-A0667B2D7C92 (resized).png

I just don’t understand Tesla. I watched it go from 525 to 420 up to now 860 in about a month or so. Wow.

I would have thought that 99 cent gas would have brought down demand for electric cars?

Iceman was right. I was totally wrong on the market, it has taken off in a somewhat ridiculous fashion. It is too bad though that he wouldn't take me up on that $100 bet of New York vs Kansas numbers, as of today it was 4708 to 262...I knew that IHME forecast was totally bogus when they said New York would be lower than Kansas on May 1st (their current forecast still is, way too optimistic) but the market doesn't care at all.

My hats off to him. He got it right on the market part, and I was totally wrong that the market would care about unemployment, home owners in trouble, bad profits, corona that isn't going away. The fed backstop just made all of those concerns go away.

Tesla’s aren’t cheap cars here since they did away with green incentive programs so who is going to buy them in a depressed economy??

Maybe it’s because China is somewhat back online and raw materials are cheaper....?

I'm guessing new car sales are down 90% in April. Gas hasn't been this cheap in 30 years. Tesla is way up. Makes sense since it was all apparently "priced in"? Am I finally getting it?

Makes me wonder how Ford will survive, didn’t they lose like 5 Billion last year?

They made 84M but it was a bad year last year. This will not be good for them.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/business/ford-earnings/index.html

Everybody given away new cars. 82 mo 0% intrest! Wow, there begging for a sale. They don't care, just come get a car, we don't care, make a payment 6 months from now, 2 hundred bucks, we don't care, just come get a car.
Tesla up.

Everything you wanted to know about The Fed.

The Fed is going to do everything it can to backstop the markets. It is amazing how the money can flow. Nothing is too big. No mountain too high. Except maybe healthcare.

The govt. is owning the airlines, the unemployed, the meat packers,

If this does not turn the US into a socialist country, I don't know what will. You know Wall Street, that bastion of capitalists, is eating this "free" money up at about 500 points per day

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-042920/h_092ace4c9c6665e49079857482b81a71

We are in the market for a new car and GM has dropped trade ins dramatically plus reduced cash discount offers. We are getting 3k less for our trade from the feb/March value. I have a good friend who owns a Chevy dealership and he is hoping trade values come up in May and better cash offers. The push in payments is nice and zero interest but with I’m ultimately paying 6-7 thousand more than if I traded in feb or March. They need to fix this to get me to buy in May.

Disruptive innovation

I’m not sure how the stock market traders in this thread can handle it.

That entire episode is hilarious. I recommend everyone watch it.

This is from the same episode:

More Fed action:

"Fed expands Main Street lending program to companies with up to 15,000 employees"

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/business/fed-main-street-lending-program/index.html

" The Federal Reserve is giving companies with up to 15,000 employees the green light to tap its emergency Main Street lending program.

"The US central bank announced Thursday it is expanding both the scope and eligibility for the program, which has yet to launch.
The changes will allow both larger and smaller companies to tap the lending facility, which is aimed at helping American businesses stay alive during what could be the biggest economic shock in US history.

And here is the oil companies bailout.

" Underscoring the rising risk of widespread bankruptcies, the Fed is adding a third loan option that will cater to companies with "greater leverage." In this loan category, lenders would be forced to take on additional risk in case the loans go bad.
.
It's not clear if US shale oil companies, many of which are teetering near bankruptcy, will be allowed to participate in the Main Street program.
============================

The above sounds more like low interest loans that will need to be repaid.

People are hoarding cash.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/investing/savings-rate-federal-reserve/index.html

"Americans are hoarding cash: Savings rate hits its highest level since 1981"

Like Pavlov's dogs, Wall Street salivates at the sight of cash. . Wall Street tells me cash is no good. If holding cash is no good why does Wall Street always want it?

None of this makes sense, except that the fed is going to back stop every industry. How do you invest in this uncertainty. I guess I’ll wait till we test new lows and if the fed is still there, jump in then.
Disclaimer: if I think the market is going lower, it’s a sure bet it’s going higher.

Here's an interesting article from last week which does a good job of explaining how the market can be so strong when the economy is in the toilet ...

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/21/why-is-the-stock-market-up-when-the-economy-is-tan.aspx

there are few active auctions right now for dealers to dump used cars they take in. Hence the lower trade in value since they have to sit on it or try and sell it on their lot.

If you think trade values are bad, just ask them to buy your car outright and see what they offer you. Cars are just not selling.

Anyone looking for a nice 2006 Audi A8 L in grey, let me know.

Yep, we will see what May brings. Otherwise we won’t trade it in. It only has 97k miles and we bought it new in 2012 so no real need to let it go and get a new one.

Telsa only makes money because they sell emissions credits. If they where only building and selling cars they would be brankrupt already.

Looks like AMZN shit the bed, was down $160.00 per share after hours... Let see what Apple does here in a few minutes.

That was pretty expected. They were up $800/share off the lows and their delivery times and margins have been awful the last couple months. Stuff I'm ordering that usually takes 2 days with prime is now taking 2-3 weeks.

My home phone went bad two weeks ago and I tried to order a new one. They were in stock, but since phones aren't essential, they wouldn't ship it until May 10th, so I bought it from Best Buy instead and got it in 2 days. Ordered a new toaster 12 days ago, also in stock, and it won't ship until May 4th. I might as well cancel my prime since I'm not getting any benefit out of it.

AMZN hovered around $1800 for most of last year. Now it has soared up to a peak of $2475, gaining over $100 today alone. In after hours trading it has basically lost the day's gain. And your assessment is that it "shit the bed"? I'm starting to think this stock market thing is not for you....

Sorry if my assessment and language offended you, I was being dramatic.

IMHO with a PE of something like 85 AMZN is priced for perfection.. let’s see what happens in the next few trading days.. Nas futures are already down 165.. what goes up a hundred points per day can go down 100 points a day.

From AMZN earnings release:

“The boom in sales, 26% higher than the same time last year, came at a cost, as profit fell 29% from a year earlier to $2.5bn. And the company said there was more spending to come.”

Oh, I'm not offended at all... just confused.
There's nothing in their earnings release that is really unexpected or surprising. I'm no soothsayer, but I'm fairly confident that we will continue to see Amazon climb even higher in the near term. I'm quite happy that I bought back in last month at $1700. I sold all my previous holdings in Feb at $2050 (before the pandemic dive).

How do you buy those bonds?
Boing isnt going away. They now have two phases of rebuilding to do in the next 5 to 7 years. Revamp and fix max 737. Sustain contracts into 2022, and they will be $300 a share again.

You can pick up a Model S for 25-30K wholesale. Tesla's depreciate ridiculously fast as their value follows other external factors that most ICE vehicles will never have to worry about (OTA updates/features, CEO comments, etc).

with all of their bailouts/stimulus/printing, the fed is causing firms/businesses/individuals who actually earn their money to become extinct.

Seems we started this crisis with "the economy is collapsing"
followed by shock that "the stock market is booming"
into the realization that "the market no longer makes sense"
and the question "just how many trillions of dollars will it take to prop the stock market up through 2020"
and finally ending with "free market capitalism is dead, long live the casinos!"

Good luck all!

Watching intently, this was my sons first stock purchase, he's been antsy. I keep reminding him, he is definitely in for the long game, he's just 20.

Amazon’s CEO tells investors ‘you may want to take a seat,’ as he explains why the company will spend ‘entirety’ of $4 billion profit

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazons-ceo-tells-investors-if-youre-shareowner-you-may-want-to-take-a-seat-as-he-explains-why-the-company-will-spend-entirety-of-4-billion-profit-2020-04-30

If someone just read the headline they might think this was bad news. Bezos is doing the right thing, and it will pay off.

A while back, Bezos made the statement that with the scale that Amazon is running, any mistakes on starting something new, for example, would be in the large dollar category. It was almost like he was saying a 20 million dollar mistake would be a rounding error.

I've sold my CBRL and RRGB today and bought a 1000 shares each of STKS, BNED, BORR, VAL, PRTY, LUB, RUTH, CNTY, OXY earlier today. Almost all of these are highly distressed and selling at a deep discount right now and were down 5-15% in early trading today. Yes I know these are risky, but I have the main retirement fund in sensible mutual funds.

Considering the latest trend amongst Millennials is to create and invest in conscientious companies, I'd have to think what Amazon has been doing by being one of the few companies in the world proactively trying to address the coronovirus crisis (rather than try to react to it to stay alive), that will play out well in the long run. It is inconvenient to get what we want in 2 weeks rather than 2 days, but it makes sense in this situation. At the other end of this Amazon will have massively beefed up their distribution capabilities to address their backlogs, and it will make it that much easier for them to no longer need to outsource parts of that distribution chain and that will help out their bottom line. That could be 2022 though.