The the market has been behaving, this news ought to push it up another 500 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/business/tyson-foods-nyt-ad/index.html

"'The food supply chain is breaking,' Tyson says as plants close."
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Tyson Foods (TSN) is warning that "millions of pounds of meat" will disappear from the supply chain as the coronavirus pandemic pushes food processing plants to close, leading to product shortages in grocery stores across the country.
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US farmers don't have anywhere to sell their livestock, he said, adding that "millions of animals — chickens, pigs and cattle — will be depopulated because of the closure of our processing facilities."
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The above action will not be doing the grain industry any good. To me, it seems there is nothing good here for Deere farm equipment.

There is a lot of resistance at the $140.00 level for DE.

Screen Shot 2020-04-27 at 12.26.30 AM (resized).png

Honestly, this is bad for some farmers, but what's really bad right now is related to oil...ethanol plants. With the demand almost nothing, corn demand for ethanol has gone to nothing, which has driven down corn prices almost 17% in the last month or two. However, since there is some sort of 'help' there anyways for prices, it may not matter.

You would think that they would bail out the livestock farmers but I don't think they'll do that, which will have a way worse impact on the food supply a few years down the road. Saving them would make a lot more sense that some of the other places they're saving.

I would agree with you though, no food and bad earnings should be worth at least a 500 point increase, lol.

I'm really at a loss at what to do with my money currently. Nothing is worth investing in.

I did have a good solution for all the public companies that need bailed out though. I would mandate that they could not get any money until they issue shares equal to what they bought back in the past 10 years. That seems like a pretty fair request.

so invested in March and doing well with Apple - actually took a loss with Boeing as I decided to let it go and use the money to better invest in other stocks instead of waiting for the airline industry to get back.

Already have Disney.

Thinking about more apple but also want to see how the market reacts to Q earnings. Any other thoughts?

I have done some reading about the Great Depression. One of the food problems back then was that there was no demand. A rancher could not sell his cattle and recover the transportation costs needed to get his beef to the east coast where there was some demand. To cut down on supply, the government paid to have cattle euthanized. The picture in the history books that I remember is of a rancher/cowboy with several cattle herded into the corner of a fence. He was aiming his rifle and picking them off one by one---end of too much supply problem.

Bailing out the livestock farmers/ranchers would make lots of sense. But the problem would not be solved because the issue is with the packing plants shutting down. One option is for the govt. to keep buying the feed grain for the livestock producer, however, with hogs, there is an ideal weight the pork packers want and hogs that go to market late will not be all that marketable.

as the green days keep adding up keep feeling more and more the urge to pull everything out (which i haven't done at any point yet). still down 10% from my highs though, so on one hand i dont want to realize losses. on the other hand, the market seems to be denying reality... reality will eventually win... right?

If you look at the charts, AAPL is typically a sell the news stock as it typically dips after earnings. They just announced today that they are delaying production of iPhone one month. I am looking to buy more after earnings Thursday, but am not looking to buy beforehand.

Yeah I agree.

The euphoria that surrounded the meeting between Saudi Arabia and Russia has ran out of stern.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

US oil is plunging again on storage fears
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US oil prices are tumbling again on Monday. West Texas Intermediate futures, the American benchmark, plunged nearly 17% to $14.07 a barrel — a rough start to the week as tumult in the market continues.
"The market knows that the storage problem remains and we are on a calculated path to reach tank tops in weeks," Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, told clients Monday. "Prices can't do else but decline when producers won't have anywhere to store oil soon."

The price pressure is expected to spark a wave of shutdowns as producers try to rebalance a market grappling with excess supply and extremely limited demand.

The number of US oil rigs fell to 378 as of Friday, with 60 rigs shutting last week alone, according to a closely-watched count by energy services company Baker Hughes. The count is down 53% compared to the same week last year.

Corporate impact: Rig contractor Diamond Offshore Drilling filed for bankruptcy in Texas on Sunday, saying that conditions have "worsened precipitously in recent months."
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I just looked at the DO chart . No play there. DO is trading for $0.93 per share.

another Green Day on the boulevard of broken dreams.

I sold my 150 DIS today, for a $1600 loss. Between DIS and DAL, I’m out a Stern Pro. Lesson learned: don’t get so excited about the dividend that you ignore what’s actually happening to the company.

I read this morning that GM is cutting its dividend and stopping its stock buybacks. The new GM is at an 8 year low. You know it had to grate for GM to stop these items.

But yet, XOM has sold bonds to keep its dividend going. So I am not enticed to buy XOM.

why get excited about dividends when the stock price is reduced by the amount of the dividend when they are paid [a net gain of 0], and generate taxable income at the same time.

Can someone explain Tesla to me? I thought they were losing money but the stock seems to go up $$50 to $100 per day.

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-is-it-a-buy-now/

Interesting. I don't like airlines, but I think Disney is still a steal here. Wasn't there an article a few weeks ago that said at these levels, the stock is valued at the value of Disney+ by itself, with the theme parks, cruises, etc as a free bonus? I have a couple hundred shares a little higher and no intention of selling.

There are rumors that they may not reopen the parks until 2021.

Don’t bet on that.

I can tell you this: I just got back from getting groceries at Walmart. It is 80 degrees here today. Those masks, any masks, are hot to wear when outside. If the watch phrases are "social distancing" and "wearing a mask" during the summer time, Disney theme parks will not stand a chance on either one.

All Walmart employees now have to wear a mask. Trouble is that more than half the customers in the store think it does not apply to them. It will only get worse as the heat comes on. So all you can do is hope for a summer reprieve from this virus.

Dang it. I bet on Cracker Barrel and Red Robbin. Ruths is up 125% since I made that post. O well.

I wear an N95 that has the exhale valve (supposed to be more comfortable) and it is still very hot. No way could I wear it for any length of time in 90+ degree high humidity weather. That pretty much rules out Florida from June to October.

Just checking in...as most know, I'm the buy, hold, buy, hold, hold, and stay the course dude.

Our total portfolio is down about 10% even.

I can only comment from my weekly Saturday morning Walmart run. The cashiers and greeters has masks on, but the workers in the produce section, stocking shelves, and gathering pickup orders weren't wearing masks. Customer use seemed to peak at around 50% two weeks ago. This week I'd say customer mask use was down to around 25%. I go right when they open with the old folks that should be wearing them.

If the parks are valued at zero towards the stock price, does it matter if they don't open until 2021? Sure it limits the upside, but shouldn't hurt the downside.

That is good to hear. I enjoy your viewpoint and actually started thinking about you when the Dow was at 18k. Thanks for checking in!

I also wanted to add that as of yesterday, our portfolio was about 35% bonds, balance equity funds. Though we are a tad heavy in my wife's company stock grants.

The fake news website has a nice webpage that I hope they will keep up with. They are about 50 stock charts, in different sectors, that set be set to one day prices and all the way up to 5 years worth of data so you can see long term trends.

https://www.cnn.com/business/markets/coronavirus

This isn't true. They are already talking of plans to open. That rumor is from some analyst that popped off.

KPG you got your ears on? I would love to hear your thoughts on current market action.
B7FE228F-D869-4215-8DDC-D83695A25CB7.gif

I know it's a cartoon but this short clip has really helped me understand how to play the stock market now that the fed takes a more active role in economics.

The volume on yesterday’s rally was very low.

for you, but the exhale values makes the mask useless for protection to others around you if you are infected.

That was funny

I put some $ into a total of 7 different oil tanker stocks most of which have good quarterly dividend payouts, and have done pretty well so far. I added to those positions this morning and think they will be good holds for at least 1 quarter maybe 2. Seems like land storage for oil is filling up and these tankers will be sitting in the ocean acting like oil storage units for a bit.

I just saw this is coming tomorrow, heads up to anyone

'United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) has announced a 1-for-8 reverse split effective Wednesday, April 29, meaning shareholders will receive one share of (new) USO common stock for every eight shares they currently own. The stock price will increase to eight times its value at the April 28 close, so shareholder net positions at market open April 29 will be the same as before the split, plus or minus market movements. The deliverable on USO options contracts will be 12.5 shares instead of 100.'

Made me go look it up. Several years ago this was a good one. Do you think it will ever have an upside again?

C'mon guys... stop gambling on junk stocks. Put money into companies that you believe in.

USO is a scam, junk stock IMHO! I wonder how many reverse splits they have done in the last 10 years?

I just sold my stocks in Canadian oil companies. Made a very small profit, but I was ok cashing out for such a small return, knowing the storage issue is likely going to become a big issue very issue soon.
Or am I blowing it out of proportion?

good thing for the global financial system that this essential business remained open during the lockdown.

federated (resized).jpg

I have never invested in USO stock, I know some here have so I was giving them a heads up on this news. Maybe that was the wrong idea.

Not all all, I think everyone here including me appreciates news like this. My reply to your post about USO is just my feelings about it, a lot of retail investors get burned on this stock because they think they are investing in oil at a low price right now only to find out that that they were wrong.. and then they lose $$

USO is a limited partnership fund. They are for short term stuff. They are not an investment tool. I think they should be made illegal or at least not for public consumption.

Here is how they work: The firms that issue these ETFs are always skimming from the top. If your ETF is going up, they will skim some of the top for theirselves. You won't notice because your "stock" is going up.

If your ETF goes down in price and gets low enough, they will do big-number reverse splits.

This is all price data for USO. The highest price it has been is about $120.00. After the split it will look liked it had traded for $900.00 per share.

Screen Shot 2020-04-28 at 4.53.42 PM (resized).png

This is TZA. It is a bearish ETF based on the Russel 2000.

It looks like it traded for over $160,000.00 per share at one time. It only looks like this because over the last 9-10 the market has relentlessly kept going up. TZA has done 4 or 5 8-for-1 reverse splits. It is trading for $35.oo today but you can't se that on this chart.

Screen Shot 2020-04-28 at 4.56.13 PM (resized).png

Do yourself a favor and stay away from ETFs. ETFs were all the rage several years ago and if they are used as the were designed to be used they can be a helpful hedge strategy. The problem with Wall Street is the important details get left out of the sales brochures. ETFs are awaiting asset just like listed options on the CBOE.

LMAO! Google is up $104.00 per share after hours because their earnings were not as bad as expected.

...unless they represent an index, like VOO or VUG or VIG.

Agreed. Or sector ETFs are probably fine. It's the leveraged ETFs and commodity ETFs that are made to fleece investors.

An index ETF is the same as a mutual fund, with the added benefits of lower fees and being able to be traded any time during the day, not just at the closing price at the end of the day.

Nice distinction.

That’s not uncommon.

What do you think of SPYD? I have 75% sitting in cash and thought maybe a high dividend ETF would be the way to go for now. It'd be 1400 shares. I put the other 25% in CCL, NCLH, ERI and MGM when it was cheap a few weeks ago. This is long term savings, goal is to beat the 2% CD this money was in last year. My retirement is in the TSP. All the bad talk about ETFs earlier is making me second guess it.