In a sense, most this new bailout money went to pay for stock buybacks and dividends for the past decade:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-companies-spent-7-trillion-on-buybacks-and-dividends-and-been-rewarded-by-coronavirus-bailouts-says-social-capital-ceo-2020-04-22

I sort of agree with you. But no one saw this pandemic coming. But still, I would prefer these companies be selling stock to raise cash instead of Uncle Sugar having to step up.

I don't understand the hate at all for buybacks. If a company is buying back overvalued shares, that would be a no-no. But if the stock is fairly valued or undervalued, why not buy back some of those shares?

I can say this: I would rather a company I owned stock in was buying back shares as opposed to having a company keeps selling shares and diluting my ownership. When I use to look at the 10-Ks I always looked at the fully diluted numbers.

Apple/AAPL has been doing a fairly good job with its buybacks. And it has been careful with its acquisitions. A lot of market pundits have been busy the last few years saying Apple should buy this and Apple should buy that.

These swings up and down have to be the day traders with big money just basically gambling. Must be nice...

Playing Monopoly with real real estate!

Maybe because they didn’t know any better?

If we don't get back to work, they will all be just holding their dicks.

A buyback is great for the shareholders, in Apple’s case.

Think about all the shares repurchased on the way up for the $85 range and the value added along the way

With Apple the total yield is about 6%

1.5% div yield that you pay tax on in a taxable account

Approx 4.5% yield now on the stock buyback program that you pay no tax on until you sell the stock

Not bad all things being equal

United Airlines is working plans to sell $1 billion dollars of new shares.

The article does not mention anything about bailout money.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/business/united-stock-sale/index.html

"United Airlines, whose shares have plummeted in value by 68% in the last nine weeks, is planning to raise $1 billion by selling additional shares of its badly battered stock.

guess they didnt give any consideration to getting paid $1 billion dollars to take possession of 25 million barrels of oil and store it on americas fruitless plains where they park their fruitless planes.

fruitlessplanes (resized).jpg

"Big investors haven’t capitulated yet, so be wary of this market, warns SocGen strategist"

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-wont-get-what-it-needs-to-keep-the-rally-going-warns-socgen-strategist-2020-04-23?mod=home-page

"And despite the correction markets have seen this year, there is a way to go before reaching the “fully risk off” stage, she cautioned."
--------------------------------------------------------------------

I have never seen a headline like the above. What I am used to reading is that the "small retail investors" have not rolled over yet. I am used to the move not being over until the little guy has been wiped out. We are the fish that the big boys go after to clean out our pockets.

".‘Capitalism as we know it will likely be changed forever’ and 9 other lasting implications of coronavirus, according to billionaire Leon Cooperman

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/capitalism-as-we-know-it-will-likely-be-changed-forever-and-10-other-lasting-implications-of-coronavirus-according-to-billionaire-leon-cooperman-2020-04-23?mod=newsviewer_click
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Another opinion. But Leon Cooperman did not get rich without having some sort vision for his opinions.

Speaking during a Thursday morning interview on CNBC, the wealthy investor said the impact of the virus has changed things in 10 specific ways, in his view:

Capitalism is altered due to the impacts on economies from the viral outbreak

Cooperman said politics in the U.S. are moving more to the left: “Taxes will have to go up.”

Low interest rates may be lasting and are indicative of ‘a troubled economy.’

Consumer demand will come back slowly unless there is a vaccine for the coronavirus

Businesses will face compliance costs related to the virus

Lots of equity issuance will be required to “replace lost capital.”

Stock buybacks, one of the markets biggest drivers, will fade away

Profit margins at corporations will revert to the mean

Credit is cheaper than equities

A quiet Warren Buffett, a white knight in the last crisis, is a bad sign for the long term/
-----------------------------------------

The Warren Buffet comment is interesting.

Looks like the market is about to roll over and go red.

Edit: never mind.. that was weird Dow dropped 250 points and bounced back 3 min later

This market is so manipulated right now it’s a joke!

2B2E8C8C-6D9F-4FD7-A98A-D6EB6C87A51B (resized).jpeg

It just seems like the sh** is really hitting the fan right now. So much happening throughout each day and a lot of bad financial indicators popping up. The markets can't discount them forever and the feds can't fix them all.

4.4 million jobs lost last week = Market goes up.

Man, you ain't kidding!

Waiting for "it was already priced in"...

I think I figured out was caused the drop.. crazy we rallied 1000 points on news of hope for this drug and now we sell off for one minute after the news breaks that it failed.

https://apple.news/AARuMhfvnSPiw8hK03qY7Jg
8C9AA1D3-78FF-4ED0-A420-5A413DB6EE7E (resized).jpeg

Edit: I don’t buy this, the stock was tanking and taking the market with it so they released news that the drug might still be helpful.
https://apple.news/A5NOdXrSPRa-80SmsmJ5l6g

Plugging in - find this thread interesting. Pulled everything out yesterday - my gut is telling me more bad times ahead than good. I hate the idea of letting cash sit gathering dust, but everything has me pretty spooked right now.

Apparently all news is good news now..

DE28ABE8-1167-4DD6-8220-702B12D15F5D (resized).jpeg

All these people (including myself) moving to cash is a bullish indicator, much as I hate to admit it. I’m a permabear but I feel like I’m missing out on an opportunity.

That's because you're idealistic, like me. Seems perfectly reasonable to think that when things are good, the market should be good. When things go to shit, so should the market. The problem is that the "invisible hand" that used be the philosophy of a supposed free market has become a 2 ton sledgehammer, blasting out any negative influences on the stock market. Will there be a price to pay? I don't know. I was always taught that there was no such thing as a free lunch. But what I've learned is that there is not such thing as a free lunch for the working and middle classes. Plenty of free lunch to go around for both the super rich and the super poor to keep them in check.

Just bought some stock in a funeral home/graveyard Corp. That's probably all I'll keep. The rest is cash for now.

The market doesn't make sense right now, I agree. You also don't have to go "all in" either. Just put some play money in an account, follow some stocks and see how they move day to day, and buy and sell in small increments. Not everything has to be a home run or a huge gain.

I hate trying to time the market, I usually don't do well, but I was 80% out before this started and put about 75% of that back in as it fell. Cashing out yesterday I didn't make a fortune, but it would pay for a nice new car. Problem is now I paranoid about playing again for a while.

^^^^^ sounds like a hell of a profit to me. Congrats!

Back to the days of irrational exuberance.

I am continuing to play.

Only nibbles in ASX shares here and there.
Modest profit collected from APT the other day.

Currently moving away from property and finance to online activities, gaming and tech. Also as crazy as it might sound I'm trying to get into oil and gas at the right price STO.

Some frightening figures here.

http://money.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-money-markets-one-visualization-2017/?fbclid=IwAR2WLgVtFL3ACip0CLuAqPHCgGGyKw1YEzNdz1ALpjACbo2wdr60jgLezZI

der (resized).JPG

5 pages of notes from conference call I’m going to summarize for my clients

Bottom line, “follow the fed”

Yes the fed can fix it all if it so chooses and decides to go “all in” into the equity markets

Don’t take my word for it. El Erian big picture

Hillenbrand, Inc. (HI) batesville funeral caskets

Hell...

Bankruptcy, if it has to bail out the states.

cemeteries might present an investment opportunity. they could be repurposed as parks and advertised as a place where you can rest assured that every body is maintaining social distancing of 6 feet.

sixfeet (resized).jpg

The French are always ahead of us on this shi*.

cd32b68c8d3baff97937f973fb1c5e7c43ff6920 (resized).jpg

Actually, they and CBOE options are a sub-zero sum game. Don't forget the dealer rake: Commissions.

I have to agree Ice, the bulls have the advantage as long as the Fed has their printing press running and zero interest rates. It’s like the bears are playing against the house in Vegas, the chips are stacked against them.

What's setup right now is the Fed has kind of taken all the other good options off the table, leaving only the market.

It's kind of like having an overpriced car to sell, nobody will buy as there are better options. Until Uncle Fed steps in and makes all the other options worse than your car. Now people still don't want to buy your car, but the lack of options is kind of forcing people that way.

Normally people would invest in bonds but the rates have been driven so low they're not even an option. And they messed with the real estate market enough to make it not an option due to tighter lending standards, hotels failing, etc. So you're left with either commodities (which oil is a disaster), the market, or cash. Nothing is appealing really. Probably why Buffett is on the sidelines still, his indicator still says the market is significantly overvalued at 129%.

Looking flat today.
Dont most first quarter earnings come out next week?

I won't pretend to understand gamma completely, but it has something to do with how the big dealers are positioned via options. I see articles about it every few weeks and they're pretty spot on with predicting future market moves. S&P at 2800 is right in a neutral gamma zone and that's why it's kind of stuck there right now. If the market goes up a bit from here, it will keep going up because the dealers with be forced to keep buying. Likewise if it goes down a little from here, it will force more selling. With the Fed on the bulls side, odds are in the favor of more gains unless there's some really bad news that can overcome that upward bias.

This market. I could see a 15% drop due to the oil wars. That I could see. Add in the Global Pandemic, the entire world economy stopped virtually overnight with no real solution in sight? Massive layoffs, deaths, businesses destroyed...yeah, a 15% drop overall is ludicrous.

It sometimes almost seems like logic design is how the markets work. 1 and 1 is 1

The Fed can’t hold this market up forever and the longer they try the worse the fall will be when it happens, as they will be out of ammunition to stop it.

Ditto and admit, there are a lot of things the Fed can’t fix with money!

Just look at what happened to Denver 100 years ago when they opened things up.

86CEE6EE-095A-4842-AC75-151F6A542867 (resized).png

Every time that you think that they're out of ammo, they come up with something else though. Does their ammo actually have limitations?

That’s not how El Erian sees it

They have already stepped into the high yield market. Something never thought possible, picking winners and losers.

“Whatever it takes”

“Journey and the Destination”

Risk brings opportunity

Invest bottom up and in companies that the world is coming to them. Healthcare, technology

Gonna post summary in a bit

I guess we are gunna find out.. another 1/2 Trillion stimulus today alone.

When you say “the market” that is the point

Avoid broad indexes

Resilience, agility and optionality

Did I mention PINS a while back?

TTD, SHOP, AMZN, AAPL, OKTA, MDB to name a few

GOOGL on 5G and driverless

“Don’t get caught in traps”. Old way of thinking

I thought that in 2011. And it has been nothing but up all the way into January 2020. Someday, The Fed will run out of ammo. But it has been expensive for many who made that trade in the last 8-9 years.

but I don't buy the low-no-inflation info. that gets pushed out. I go to the grocery store too often to believe that. Same thing for automotive work and parts. Yeah, sure, I can buy a gallon of milk for $1.89, but I know that are sticking it to me in the rest of the store. While milk is the loss leader at $1.89, 5 quarts of oil and a fllter has moved from $12.00 over the years to around $18.00 today.

My plan is my s&p account needs to be up to close to what it was prior to the crash, then out of it. Cash or peer lending.

The market seems to be ignoring the fact that due to marketing budgets being slashed, ad prices have dropped substantially, so ad tech companies like TTD, Google, and AMZN have started feeling the pain (e.g., AMZN recently slashed affiliate payments). Google has other businesses to help it, but TTD is the pure ad tech play. The secondary impact is to companies that rely on ads like PINS... there's a lot less revenue coming from ads.