There is not way to discuss this without discussing the two political parties. So I guess I won't.

Is part of the 'positive' sentiment in the market because stockholders tend to like layoffs? I've always found this whole thing counterproductive because in almost all cases if you're cutting workers, you aren't doing very well, but yet stockholders love it.

If you have a negative view towards certain high tech stocks such as NVDA, APPL, SHOP, etc., what is the best option in terms of taking a short position over the next six months to a year? Do a put spread on QQQ or is there another security that trends in the same direction as these high tech stocks? Is there something similar to SQQQ that isn't triple the play on the NASDAQ 100 and is option eligible? Thanks for the advice.

Stockholders love layoffs. I do not jest. Less payroll money means it is better for earnings per share. It is a strange dynamic.

Thanks for the feedback. So you would have sold the $50 and bought the $60 instead? When I did the trade, VXX was trading around $50.

And the sad reality is that workers who make less than 50k a year like layoffs right now too. They get a raise to stay at home. Employers don’t have to be motivated to call back employees and employees don’t really want employers to be motivated to do so.

These are unusual times. Even in "normal" times, stockholders love lay offs. Especially if it is a big company slicing off an "under performing" division. But golden parachutes always seem to slide right on by.

This doesn't bug me at all. Why should only the big boys get perks? In the end, those little guys are going to be paying it back in taxes, while the big boys avoid them (aside from paying back interest free). We're all going to be paying for this long past when we die anyway. Ultimately, this will help allow for us to get past this rather than try to rush it.

Well, the labor market was so saturated, that I wouldn't be surprised if a bit of higher unemployment wouldn't be seen as a positive move.

Well, it would certainly require employers to offer a more attractive compensation package for many working-class earners. If I was on unemployment right now and assumed that my employer wasn't going to be calling me back until the expiration of the extra $600/wk. until 7/31, you'd have have to pay me 65K a year at least to get me off my ass. Let's not forget about the opportunity cost of actually having to leave home and work as opposed to staying home and making 1K a week (no stress, go gas, no getting dressed, catch up on home repairs, doctor appts., spending time with my kids, helping them with the school work, the list goes on).

OXY at $12.90 now

Edit.. I found the reason for today’s OXY sell off, any thoughts on this KPG.. are you thinking wait for retest of lies or just avoid it?

https://apple.news/ApR_DMiVhR5uugQ1Wf9rgaQ

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To the downvoters, explain why you disagree. You don't like socialism when it's for the poor, only the rich deserve bailouts? You think they need all that money? "WE" pay for it, not them. This is temporary for the little guys, the big boys get all sorts of perks all the time.

Article from Barron's says more downside to come.

It is one more opinion to the mix.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/markets-are-mistaken-51586777785?mod=mw_more_headlines

"Opinion: Markets Are Mistaken. The Worst Isn’t Over."

In additional news, stimulus funding for small businesses is already out of money. Anyone get in on that? I'm betting we don't see any sort of list that shows where that money went.

Also, why exactly are retired people on SS getting stimulus checks? They aren't out any more money than usual, and they have to pay it back at the end of the year anyway. Doesn't make sense to me.

I heard that professional gamblers in Vegas will be getting stimulus checks

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/4D7836F8-7DB0-11EA-B298-E6606EABF547

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Probably cause they’ve been burden by this too.

I think the potential for genuine inflation is going to be low as it is all relative. The entire world has the same problem. Not to mention the greenback is still propped by it being the international business currency. If Russia, China and friends ever abandonded the dollar, we might see the inflation that should appear. When the banks stole that trillion in 2008, it didn't affect anything. Amazing.

I'm a total newb to stocks, but I've been reading a lot of articles etc., and I think reading the market right now will only be possible by assessing human behaviour. Of course, company fundamentals are still important, but how are people going to be behaving in the near and distant future?

My best guess is that people will want life to go back to normal asap. This is why the market is rebounding without a resolution to covid. We still have a while to endure this, but most businesses will survive, and society will function as it always did. No one is going to care about changing behaviour for the environment etc etc. That's horseshit. People will want to take their yearly to Mexico, even if they can't afford it. Airlines are a safe long term investment for sure.

I've been interested in Cineplex in Canada, the primary owner of movie theatres. Thier stock has been dropping over the years due to home viewing, but their financials are good and the stock was doing well within its environment. Their drop has not seen a significant recovery yet. My logic is based on who is going to be released into the public first. Who has the least risk? Kids under 25. What do these kids do? They go to movies. We're going to see a spike in this industry like never before. In my best guess, it would be anywhere from August to December. I'm waiting for the second drop to get in, if that second drop ever comes.

Anyone want to set my rookie head straight?

I'm no expert of course, but I don't see movies recovering at any rate compared to other entertainment. They were bad before this, they'll continue to be bad and get worse going forward unless something drastic changes.

SHOP $346 on April 2nd, closed today at $526.

I really like TTD, AAPL and SHOP long term and maintain a position through the ups and down. NVDA as well.

If you believe the market is going to retreat, some people are using the TZA which is a triple leveraged play against small caps.

On another note, market up last three trading days on these unemployment numbers.

And i think we could see deflation and asset repricing for the next two years or so before the currency printing presses catch up and inflation explodes. Who knows?

After hours is pretty happy with some drug trials right now

Yep, GILD up big.

I had dm.v in my stocks to watch this morning. I saw it at .09, but couldn’t buy at that time (was out working). Turned around at noon to see it .19. That one hurt to miss out on

Wowza TZA down over 7.00 after hours! What is the news? APPL trading at $295 in AH at this rate it will be back to its highs by Monday (even though they have sold a phone in a month)

Looks like it would gap to about 24,300 if it opened now, but it's a long way until morning.

FBT is a Biotech ETF, up 3.5% aftermarket...

Seems like every drug company is rocking

I’m a huge Apple guy, watch it every day for years, read every detailed report etc.

No way Apple should be trading at $295 right now imho but will take it for my clients

It’s a reminder that buying any broad index is crazy right now. $$$ is flowing into certain no brainer stocks like AMZN and AAPL

And travel, commercial reits and oil & has have already been taken out to the woodshed so shorting opps there are limited. Much pain still to come

Gotta focus on individual stocks that will survive and thrive in these conditions and beyond.

Transformational companies

And those have already bounced to crazy prices in last 8 days

Gilead Pours Cold Water On Report That Sent Market Soaring: "Anecdotal Reports With No Statistical Power"

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/gilead-pours-cold-water-report-sent-market-soaring-anecdotal-reports-no-statistical-power

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/investing/global-stocks/index.html

Boeing's stock lifted futures after the company announced a plan to resume production of commercial aircraft at its Puget Sound facility. The first employees will return to the plant on April 20, the company said Thursday.

Wow if this happened people need to go to jail!!

“ it felt like one or more hedge funds would seek to manipulate public sentiment - and the market - and get out of an underwater position.

They did just that at 430pm today when the low profile Statnews published a report by Adam Feuerstein, best known for doing the bidding of one or more hedge fund clients”

Sleazy, pump and dump, but this time even worse because the rumor caused a lot of possibly false hope.
Hopefully the report/rumor that the drug is working is true. The premarket trading sure seems to still be reacting positively.

Dude seriously? People on SS are low income that's why. The criteria is anyone making less than 75K I believe.

Can you explain this in a bit more detail. Are you still thinking the market will continue up further or at what level do you see it turning for the worse? If it breaks these levels, will new money continue to flow in so it should continue upward? Thanks very much. I personally think the market will come tumbling down again in the near future.

It was a legit question. I had forgot about the 'less than' number. My mother in law got one and was asking why she got one. She said she wasn't expecting to get one because she's not unemployed and not making less than she already was budgeted. She's spending less because she's not going anywhere, etc etc. Sure, they are low income, but they aren't 'out' any more money than normal, compared to people being laid off. On top of that, they have to pay it back anyway at the end of the year. I'm sure people can use it, don't get me wrong. And before this gets modded as 'off topic' again this DOES relate to the market as we're talking things that manipulate the market here which is exactly what this thing is about.

I think the trading being up today is directly about the 3 phase to open.

I wanted to address Zablon on this but he got moderated. Some people who are on SS are low income and hurting. Some who are on SS are quite well off. If you were an airline pilot making big wages you will get a big SS check every month. Plus your pilot's pension. Plus you probably banked a lot of money while working.

If you were some poor sap working at Walmart for minimum wage, your SS check will not feed a dog and cat for one month. I feel for those people.

I am low income but made good wages. I get a decent SS check and some pension money. I don't need the $1200.00. My income is such that I have not had to pay any taxes since I retired in 2014. I can assure you that an untaxed income can go a long way. But I also live cheap with no debts and a mortgage free house. And while I live cheap I really am living pretty fat. I am proud of the pin collection I have assembled. I'm not pinching pennies.

My GF is the same way. She retired last year. Since she did pay taxes the year before, she got her check yesterday. Mine will be coming in the mail.

But someone who worked low wage retail and is still paying rent can sure use that check.

That is not correct. The check is not taxable and does not have to be paid back. It is "free" govt. money. And you are right. I don't have the gas and car maintenance expenses. My car insurance is cheaper.

How does this relate to stocks? I have some play money and I am going to start playing again.

I'll have to look it up again, but my understanding of these stimulus checks is they are just advances on next years taxes, not freebies. Maybe that changed, or I am just wrong in general, but I know at one point I had read that in the proposed stimulus docs.

As for how it relates to stocks, it is simply 'stimulus checks' which is directly to stimulate the economy and thus the markets.

BA and RTX are both defense contractors. That's a big plus. But BA needs the airliners to keep flying and buying new planes. And the airliners are not exactly bowling over with good news.

RTX used to be big with the drug interdiction programs and I imagine it still is. But I don't know. LMT is all defense contracting has remained surprisingly unscathed in this downturn. If someone likes buying uptrends, LMT is still in an uptrend.

LVS might be a good one. Gamblers love to gamble. It is just much of LVS's customers fly in and maybe will not be flying for awhile.

Yes, does not affect 2020 taxes as income, no 1099 coming. Spend away!
I threw another 2k into my e-trade account with the stimulus. So yes, its to pump up the economy.

I read it's actually based on your 2020 tax return. So say you don't get the full amount now, and you make less in 2020 than you did in 2019, you'll get more back when you file your taxes. I have a side business where the income can vary quite a bit year to year, so this will apply to me.

To me this market is moving on smoke and mirrors. People are not flying. And not buying cars. I cannot see these two items turning around very soon. Rent and home mortgage payments will need to be taken care of first. I guess I don't have that forward looking vision.
----------------------------------------------------

Here comes the 84 month car payment. The loans are no-interest loans but still... I buy used and pay cash. I cannot comprehend a 7 year car payment schedule. And they always use 36 months, 48 months or 84 months instead of years. Ahh. it's just 84 months. That's no big deal. But, Seven years !! That's a lifetime ! )

Of course, the hook is the low monthly payment. And you will still be paying long after the warranty has expired and things start breaking.

" With loans that long and no interest at all, monthly car payments can be very low."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/cars/automaker-car-loan-deals/index.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/will-you-have-to-pay-back-the-coronavirus-stimulus-check.html

The stimulus checks are not taxable income. If you are single and make less than $75K you are going to get $1200.00. Yours to keep and spend as you see fit.

" The checks — which are worth $1,200 for individuals earning up to $75,000 and $2,400 for couples earning up to $150,000, plus $500 for dependents under 17 — are structured as refundable tax credits. That is why even people who do not typically file tax returns qualify for these payments, according to the Tax Foundation, an independent think tank.

For 2019, I fall in that 150-200k married range where I will get about half of what other people get. If my 2020 income falls, I'll get the other half back on my return.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/taxes/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-payments/

If you “made too much” in 2019, you may not get a check now even if you lose your job in 2020. But you might be made whole later (and don’t forget about filing for unemployment in the meantime). That’s because these stimulus checks are technically an advance on a 2020 tax credit that’s available all year. So if your 2020 adjusted gross income ends up being under the limit or you have a baby, you might be able to claim the tax credit (or more of the tax credit) when you file next year’s tax return.

Post merger, RTX is so huge it will take some time for me to possibly get a feel for it. With RTN new contracts for a hundred million dollars might not move the needle. Now they are even bigger. The defense sector moves in unison a lot. Not always, but a lot.

I don’t think a lot of defense companies were hurt too bad because these contracts are already awarded for bread and butter programs. What will hurt them is if production always affected by shutdowns or social distancing requirements.

Probably very similar to Stern in that there are a lot of assembly line efficiencies that have evolved and if you all of a sudden have to be 6 feet apart that might really shake things up.

OT: do they go off your 2018 or 2019 earnings?

How in the world is Disney up 4.5% today and still above $100 a share? Their resorts, theme parks, movie filming, and cruise line are shuttered for the foreseeable future. ESPN might as well be shuttered unless they're broadcasting lawnmower racing. AMC theaters and all of their Marvel/Pixar/etc showing screens is on the bankruptcy ropes. It'll take at least a year and a vaccine to get the resorts and theme parks back up and running at a reasonable pace. They just bought Fox movies and other than getting some Marvel characters back, those Fox movies that opened in the past six months haven't done very well. All I can think of that's left is maybe ABC and Disney+ which is very new and has lived mostly off of eight short episodes of the Mandalorian, from what I can tell. Does anyone know what I'm missing?