(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#3451 4 years ago
Quoted from AstonEnthusiast:

Poor earning's are already priced in

I would disagree with that. The S&P is only down like 14% YTD. No earnings forecasts for the 2nd quarter have even been updated. Unemployment probably breaks 15% this week.

About the only reason I see the market going up is lack of other options honestly. Bonds are awful, commercial real estate is tanking, etc. It will go up longer term for sure, but it's hard for me to see a big upside when hotels, oil, commercial real estate, restaurants, amusement parks, theaters, airlines, automobiles, etc are all having their worst quarter ever and probably won't rebound anytime soon without a cure.

#3452 4 years ago

Scaled into some airliner stocks today. Seems they are the laggards over this rally to be honest, and haven't realized their bounce like the rest of the other beaten down sectors.

Of course, for justifiable reasons. Airline business has been significantly impacted so people are fearful to invest in them, and rightfully so.

Warren Buffet even sold most of his Airliners... In fact, it may be an example of him selling on fear vs his trademark "buy when fearful, sell when greedy" standpoint.

I'll argue I didn't agree when he bought XOM and other oil names like OXY at the top when in the 'greed' areas.

I think he simply had to cut something and the airliners were the least likely to rebound in the short term.

Airline passenger stats are showing a potential bottom of less than 100K passengers a day, and it's hovering around there. The worst is priced in.

There's definitely a risk of more downside so understand that. Scale in, not all in.

I'm holding very long term and with that said, I'm selling covered calls and covered puts along the way to collect premium to offset my cost basis so that factors in why I'm knife catching some Airliners.

Bought DAL, AAL, and HA today and will be looking for some JBLU as well.

Today's pullback wasn't on high volume and little selling conviction so I'm assuming we'll see further battles at the Dow 200 sma.. even if Airliners go down, I'm buying more at this point and will just sell more covered calls and puts.

#3453 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Scaled into some airliner stocks today. Seems they are the laggards over this rally to be honest, and haven't realized their bounce like the rest of the other beaten down sectors.
Of course, for justifiable reasons. Airline business has been significantly impacted so people are fearful to invest in them, and rightfully so.
Warren Buffet even sold most of his Airliners... In fact, it may be an example of him selling on fear vs his trademark "buy when fearful, sell when greedy" standpoint.
I'll argue I didn't agree when he bought XOM and other oil names like OXY at the top when in the 'greed' areas.
I think he simply had to cut something and the airliners were the least likely to rebound in the short term.
Airline passenger stats are showing a potential bottom of less than 100K passengers a day, and it's hovering around there. The worst is priced in.
There's definitely a risk of more downside so understand that. Scale in, not all in.
I'm holding very long term and with that said, I'm selling covered calls and covered puts along the way to collect premium to offset my cost basis so that factors in why I'm knife catching some Airliners.
Bought DAL, AAL, and HA today and will be looking for some JBLU as well.
Today's pullback wasn't on high volume and little selling conviction so I'm assuming we'll see further battles at the Dow 200 sma.. even if Airliners go down, I'm buying more at this point and will just sell more covered calls and puts.

Buffet did not sell most of his airliners?? He sold a small portion.

#3454 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Scaled into some airliner stocks today. Seems they are the laggards over this rally to be honest, and haven't realized their bounce like the rest of the other beaten down sectors.
Of course, for justifiable reasons. Airline business has been significantly impacted so people are fearful to invest in them, and rightfully so.
Warren Buffet even sold most of his Airliners... In fact, it may be an example of him selling on fear vs his trademark "buy when fearful, sell when greedy" standpoint.

Apparently United has sent a few hundred plans to the desert to die with no plans to bring them back. This could be an early retirement or just offloading assets no longer needed to save on M&U. My guess is that the airlines don't expect to get back to "normal" for a year or two.

#3455 4 years ago
Quoted from Methos:

Apparently United has sent a few hundred plans to the desert to die with no plans to bring them back. This could be an early retirement or just offloading assets no longer needed to save on M&U.

Maybe take the write down now while the government is "promising" some AMAZING and BEAUTIFUL help, they say show hey look, we had to mothball all these aircraft DURING the crisis...?

#3456 4 years ago
Quoted from Atari_Daze:

Maybe take the write down now while the government is "promising" some AMAZING and BEAUTIFUL help, they say show hey look, we had to mothball all these aircraft DURING the crisis...?

I think some of these planes were reaching end of life and were probably going to be replaced with the 737 Max. And now it is just declining demand. Which is not exactly good times for Boeing, if demand does not recover.

#3457 4 years ago
Quoted from thedarkknight77:

Buffet did not sell most of his airliners?? He sold a small portion.

To clarify I didn't mean most of his shares, but most of his actually airline names - as in Delta and Southwest, the biggest positions he has. He sold close to a 1/2 Billion which is a lot to me still

But keep in mind he is on record saying he'd "never" sell airline stock. So I was surprised to see him do that.

#3458 4 years ago

Apple, TTD, Shop.

Goldman Sachs. LOL. Great call once again, "we might have already put the coronavirus bottom in". Not what their chief economist Kostin was saying a week ago.

Looks like the Nasdaq is going to exit bear market territory today.

"Recession", "bear market", terms never meant less in this virus government induced shutdown.

Looks like the reality of the virus good news is taking hold now and now they are talking all over themselves on who has the best answer to reopen the economy!

Numbers NEVER added up. Economists and Scientists with their modeling, oh boy.

#3459 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

To clarify I didn't mean most of his shares, but most of his actually airline names - as in Delta and Southwest, the biggest positions he has. He sold close to a 1/2 Billion which is a lot to me still

According to SEC filings1 , Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly 13 million shares of Delta Airlines (DAL) last Wednesday for around $314 million, and 2.3 million shares of Southwest(LUV) for around $74 million on Thursday.

Chump change for the Oracle.

And the two best airlines btw

#3460 4 years ago

You have to love today’s headlines.. first the reason for the rally today and then the reality. It appears we are in a one way market now.. buy the phone book!

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-1
#3461 4 years ago
Quoted from Methos:

Lots of talk about lifting the stay at home bans. If that gets some lift, we could see an uptick.

Texas governor is also announcing his own plan. 295 total deaths, entire State shut down.

Markets figured it out last week.

And then when nothing else makes sense? "Don't fight the fed".

#3462 4 years ago
Quoted from Methos:

Apparently United has sent a few hundred plans to the desert to die with no plans to bring them back. This could be an early retirement or just offloading assets no longer needed to save on M&U. My guess is that the airlines don't expect to get back to "normal" for a year or two.

Just like it really makes no sense to see the stock market recover as rapidly as it has, the same can happen for Airliners because of optimistic hopes of a recovery, at least that's my rationale for being long Airliners.

The good thing is that if it takes a while that's fine, because I'm selling covered calls and puts along the way.

Example one of my positions is I bought 600 DAL yesterday @ 22.87

I simultaneously sold (6) May 15th $17 puts and also sold (6) May 8th $30 calls

I'm up $1150 on the shares

Down $130 on the covered calls (that's ok, I don't see DAL closing over $30 by May 8th, which I'll collect a $516 premium if it stays under $30)

Up $411 on the covered puts, which I closed out and took profit and will sell them again in a few days.

#3463 4 years ago
Quoted from sixtyfourbits:

Anyone here have a favorite penny stock they’re taking a gamble on? I’m mostly looking to jump into the market soon with some O&G penny stocks, but am interested in throwing money at other penny stocks for fun if there’s a Somewhat logical reason behind it.

All pot stocks - These are long term holds and the swings are wild

HEXO
KSHB
HRVSF

#3464 4 years ago
Quoted from Atari_Daze:

Maybe take the write down now while the government is "promising" some AMAZING and BEAUTIFUL help, they say show hey look, we had to mothball all these aircraft DURING the crisis...?

It was to alleviate a softer demand for the long term.

#3467 4 years ago

Their corporate office is one street over from where I work. One of my former coworkers works there. They were hurting long before the pandemic.

#3468 4 years ago

Movie theaters are going the way of the horse and carriage.

#3469 4 years ago
Quoted from Methos:

Movie theaters are going the way of the horse and carriage.

Vaudville Theatres > Movie Theatres > ??

#3470 4 years ago
Quoted from Methos:

Movie theaters are going the way of the horse and carriage.

Agreed, in the days of cheap 70” 4K TV’s and killer sound systems who want to go to the theatre and pay $25.00 for popcorn and a soda.. only to have the back of your seat kicked repeatedly for 2 hours.

#3471 4 years ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

only to have the back of your seat kicked repeatedly for 2 hours.

and the person next to you ignoring the don't use your phone, the light distracts others.
and the person behind you who won't quote talking
etc

I use to be in the movie business, but haven't been to the theater since 2013!

#3472 4 years ago

One of the nice things about where I live, none of those things is usually an issue. There's something about going to the theater that is still better than watching it at home - even on large tv's - but I'm picky about what I'll go drop that kind of money on, and most just aren't worth it.

#3473 4 years ago

Now that the 23,700 / 200d MA has clearly been broken and will close above it finally, the next major resistance isn't until 24,860 which is the 50d MA on the Dow Daily chart.

I just needed to see how that resistance worked out before going long, which I did yesterday with the airliners and a few other of my normal stocks I bought today I've traded for years.

The battle was won by the bulls and instead of fighting this, I just go off my technical analysis rather than what I "think" the market should be doing and go from there. Sure I may have missed a little bit of the rally, but this way of trading has kept me profitable through the years and I never need to stomach the crazy swings that buy-and-holders have to go through over time. Just modest gains with a consistent uptrend in portfolio value with little dips along the way.

Next stop 24,860 as 23,700 is now major support. If 23,700 is broken that is still a key area to watch. Not to say it can't be retested any time though, by being long up here the risk/reward isn't very great anymore but at least there's a clear risk (23,700) and reward (24,860) range currently defined.
Capture.JPGCapture.JPG

I also sold a nice weekly vertical call spread on TSLA today.

Sold the April 17 $925 calls and Bought the $935 calls

If TSLA closes under $925 this week, they will expire worthless for a 100% profit. If it pops more tomorrow, i'll sell strikes above $950. Betting TSLA won't be able to rally higher than that by Friday.

#3474 4 years ago

I'm going to continue to sit this out. This is what I predict is going to happen which hasn't changed from the beginning. People are tired of sitting at home, many people seeing the 'less deaths' as a 'see I told you so' instead of the real reason, and so those in power are going to open things up again. Then, new breakouts are going to occur and people will either ignore it until the numbers are big and it is too late, or panic right away. Either is bad, and the market will panic and drop like a rock with the anticipation of additional deaths and another imminent lockdown.

The market is overpriced, propped and still fake. I can't imagine why anyone thinks the market is supposed to be at 30k. Unfortunately, I realize none of this means anything because the people throwing money into the market are insane. I won't regret if it goes up or down. It is what it is. Can't lose if you don't play.

#3475 4 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I'm going to continue to sit this out. This is what I predict is going to happen which hasn't changed from the beginning. People are tired of sitting at home, many people seeing the 'less deaths' as a 'see I told you so' instead of the real reason, and so those in power are going to open things up again. Then, new breakouts are going to occur and people will either ignore it until the numbers are big and it is too late, or panic right away. Either is bad, and the market will panic and drop like a rock with the anticipation of additional deaths and another imminent lockdown.
The market is overpriced, propped and still fake. I can't imagine why anyone thinks the market is supposed to be at 30k.

You will be right in the end.

Be patient.

This pig will come back down.

#3476 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

You will be right in the end.
Be patient.
This pig will come back down.

I don't want to be right, and hopefully I'm not.

#3477 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

I bought 600 DAL yesterday @ 22.87
I simultaneously sold (6) May 15th $17 puts and also sold (6) May 8th $30 calls
I'm up $1150 on the shares
Down $130 on the covered calls (that's ok, I don't see DAL closing over $30 by May 8th, which I'll collect a $516 premium if it stays under $30)
Up $411 on the covered puts, which I closed out and took profit and will sell them again in a few days.

These are not really covered puts if you only own 600 shares and are writing 12 contracts, agreed?

#3478 4 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I'm going to continue to sit this out. This is what I predict is going to happen which hasn't changed from the beginning. People are tired of sitting at home, many people seeing the 'less deaths' as a 'see I told you so' instead of the real reason, and so those in power are going to open things up again. Then, new breakouts are going to occur and people will either ignore it until the numbers are big and it is too late, or panic right away. Either is bad, and the market will panic and drop like a rock with the anticipation of additional deaths and another imminent lockdown.
The market is overpriced, propped and still fake. I can't imagine why anyone thinks the market is supposed to be at 30k. Unfortunately, I realize none of this means anything because the people throwing money into the market are insane. I won't regret if it goes up or down. It is what it is. Can't lose if you don't play.

I agree with you wholeheatedly. It just seems to me that over the last 30 years, the highs and lows are getting tighter and maybe bigger (wavelength and amplitude). It certainly requires more expertise than it used to.

#3479 4 years ago
Quoted from pinballjah:

These are not really covered puts if you only own 600 shares and are writing 12 contracts, agreed?

Looks like he sold 6 calls against 600 shares so those are the covered calls.

He also sold 6 puts, meaning he'd buy 600 more shares at 17 if he was forced to.

-1
#3480 4 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

One of the nice things about where I live, none of those things is usually an issue. There's something about going to the theater that is still better than watching it at home - even on large tv's - but I'm picky about what I'll go drop that kind of money on, and most just aren't worth it.

I just went to see the TCM King Kong movie in theaters. It was a different experience, especially seeing a very small format (4x3?) projected on a large screen.

Sadly, there were 10 people in the audience. Nobody cares anymore, it's a dying business.

#3481 4 years ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Looks like he sold 6 calls against 600 shares so those are the covered calls.
He also sold 6 puts, meaning he'd buy 600 more shares at 17 if he was forced to.

Correct.

Airline stocks ripping in after hours on some good news.

Hope some of you guys caught this move...

#3482 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Correct.
Airline stocks ripping in after hours on some good news.
Hope some of you guys caught this move...

It seems that it’s all about government bailouts at this point, it really doesn’t matter what industry it is.. very sad! I guess our grandkids can figure out how to pay for all of this.

#3483 4 years ago
Quoted from Concretehardt:

It seems that it’s all about government bailouts at this point, it really doesn’t matter what industry it is.. very sad! I guess our grandkids can figure out how to pay for all of this.

Funny how the current guy running the country bashed the previous guy running the country for this same exact thing... and now he gets full support from the people that opposed it as well.

I don't want to get political in here so I wont, but it's funny how it all works. Here we are, more bailouts and debt.. and taxpayer money from us, the little guys, bailing out the big corporations. Insane.

#3484 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Funny how the current guy running the country bashed the previous guy running the country for this same exact thing... and now he gets full support from the people that opposed it as well.
I don't want to get political in here so I wont, but it's funny how it all works. Here we are, more bailouts and debt.. and taxpayer money from us, the little guys, bailing out the big corporations. Insane.

If they keep printing cash at this rate it won’t end well! It will take a wheelbarrow load of money to buy a loaf of bread.

#3485 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Funny how the current guy running the country bashed the previous guy running the country for this same exact thing... and now he gets full support from the people that opposed it as well.
I don't want to get political in here so I wont, but it's funny how it all works. Here we are, more bailouts and debt.. and taxpayer money from us, the little guys, bailing out the big corporations. Insane.

Not to mention the apparent new love of authoritarianism by the supposed freedom-loving crowd.

#3486 4 years ago
Quoted from usandthem:

Not to mention the apparent new love of authoritarianism by the supposed freedom-loving crowd.

Exactly.

My buddy is a huge fan of the current President and for the past year all I have heard is his rants about socialism, hand outs, bailouts and debt from the previous Prez...

Now he's a fan of it apparently.

I asked him if him and his wife will be ripping up their socialism checks when they arrive lol... nope

#3487 4 years ago

Stop this nonsense talk! Nothing matters, no charts, no logic, no earnings, no nothing! The federal government and a few key market markers are behind this inflated bubble. They are using our tax dollars to create the biggest wealth gap in history. This is all you need to know. At some point our stupid govt. started to believe it was their job to keep the market going up, no matter how over priced it is. You know why I hate Republicans and Democrats because at the end of the day they are the exact same. Obama made more billionaires with his QE run and Trump will do the same. This is our money they giving out like candy.

#3488 4 years ago
Quoted from thedarkknight77:

Stop this nonsense talk! Nothing matters, no charts, no logic, no earnings, no nothing! The federal government and a few key market markers are behind this inflated bubble. They are using our tax dollars to create the biggest wealth gap in history. This is all you need to know. At some point our stupid govt. started to believe it was their job to keep the market going up, no matter how over priced it is. You know why I hate Republicans and Democrats because at the end of the day they are the exact same. Obama made more billionaires with his QE run and Trump will do the same. This is our money they giving out like candy.

I agree with you except the charts part of it. That's how I am making a ton of profit in this market. If I traded based on my current thought of how f*cked up everything is, I'd never make a dollar doing this.

The stock market charts tell me how to make money, the news tells me what is going on in the world.

#3489 4 years ago

I'm small potatoes to most of you guys, but I bought some stocks today and sold those same stocks tonight for a couple hundred dollars profit. I know those averages won't be consistent, but that paid me a hell of a lot more money then sitting in a savings account. I figured take the guaranteed profit rather then hope it holds its value tomorrow or by the end of the week. I can always buy again, rinse and repeat.

18
#3490 4 years ago

I normally just lurk in this thread but figured I’d share today.

EB3C3068-1DB1-4A8C-A7B2-34BAE00F358C (resized).jpegEB3C3068-1DB1-4A8C-A7B2-34BAE00F358C (resized).jpeg

#3491 4 years ago

We can’t even get lysol and hand sanitizers, how are we going to reopen the economy?

As long as the virus is lingering the only thing I will do outside my neighborhood is buy groceries.

#3492 4 years ago
Quoted from DCFAN:

We can’t even get lysol and hand sanitizers, how are we going to reopen the economy?

TP! The Government secretly bought up all of the toilet paper when this first went down. Now, they'll suddenly release it back to us and we'll think everything is okay again. Anyway, that's my conspiracy theory.

#3493 4 years ago

The banks are under fire for dividends.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/investing/bank-dividends-recession/index.html

" America's big banks paid out fat dividends to shareholders during the Great Recession, leaving them with less capital to absorb massive losses.

" Now, big banks face another economic catastrophe, and this time some players involved in the last crisis are urging regulators to force lenders to preserve cash by suspending dividend payouts.

#3494 4 years ago

Kind of an interesting article

https://apple.news/AC_RhOMIySgGs-TXfF2Wm1Q

6AD67277-1DD1-4024-98D1-1A776A4DD75D (resized).jpeg6AD67277-1DD1-4024-98D1-1A776A4DD75D (resized).jpeg
#3495 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

Correct.

Airline stocks ripping in after hours on some good news.

Hope some of you guys caught this move...

Perfect timing kpg! I'm glad I followed your lead on these. Thanks for sharing and for all your input on this forum!!!

#3496 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

I agree with you except the charts part of it. That's how I am making a ton of profit in this market. If I traded based on my current thought of how f*cked up everything is, I'd never make a dollar doing this.
The stock market charts tell me how to make money, the news tells me what is going on in the world.

Can’t argue with you.
The buying opportunities over the last 3 weeks don’t happen very often and have made folks quite a lot of money.

#3497 4 years ago
Quoted from RGman:

Perfect timing kpg! I'm glad I followed your lead on these. Thanks for sharing and for all your input on this forum!!!

Awesome!

I figure rather than contributing a ton of info about my thoughts of the current economy, i'd rather bring some opportunities here to make money.. thanks to the Restaurant/Hospitality stocks, Oil stocks, and now Airliners (amongst others like the usual BA, AAPL, NVDA, etc) I have to say I feel very fortunate right now that so many opportunities presented themselves and the timing was right, so I am thankful for that.. and thankful some people made a few bucks alongside me on these trading ideas over the last month or so

Keep in mind although things seem all good and the market is floating up, I am still not changing my thoughts that the higher we go.. the harder we will fall when reality sets in. It's running on fumes, trust me. I am just trying to capture a little more profit until that happens.. but be skeptical and cautious at all times with this market...

Visual representation of how I picture where the market is... and only a few pieces left to take in the short term here.. before it comes down (In my opinion)

TDJDnaag.jpgTDJDnaag.jpg
#3498 4 years ago

FYI,

Alcoa Corp (AA) reports earnings on April 22nd.

Being very familiar with trading in volatile markets, especially during questionable market and economic conditions, allows me to base certain patterns around earnings of market moving companies.

One of those companies that has always been looked at as an overall economic health indicator is Alcoa. I suggest looking them up if you are not familiar with the company, but I will say this.. if the market doesn't start retreating by then.. Alcoa's earnings report on 4/22 can be a market mover for sure. Just thought i'd mention.

#3499 4 years ago

KPG any thoughts on OXY here, last time I bought it around 13.00 I did well.

#3500 4 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

FYI,
Alcoa Corp (AA) reports earnings on April 22nd.
Being very familiar with trading in volatile markets, especially during questionable market and economic conditions, allows me to base certain patterns around earnings of market moving companies.
One of those companies that has always been looked at as an overall economic health indicator is Alcoa. I suggest looking them up if you are not familiar with the company, but I will say this.. if the market doesn't start retreating by then.. Alcoa's earnings report on 4/22 can be a market mover for sure. Just thought i'd mention.

I hear there have been very few car sales happening over the last month. Aluminum and steel are likely not in high demand.

Some of the big business that is floundering:

Hotels, airlines, buses, trains, taxis, government transportation services, new and used cars, rental cars, gas/fuel, restaurants and bars, movie theaters, bowling alleys and other entertainment activity based business, construction, hospitals (profits are from elective surgeries), dentists, veterinarians, physical therapists, professional sports, college sports, large and small retail businesses that do not have a big online presence, home appliance sales, large home improvement such as windows/doors, museums, concerts including music, stand-up comedy and shows, nightclubs, cruise lines, casinos

I am sure I missed quite a few big ones.

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