It's scary funny how right I was 3 weeks ago predicting people's attitudes if less people died than projections.

Either I am early or I am too late with the TZA I bought the this past week. Here are a couple of charts.

The DOW is on the left. The Russel 2000 (RUT) is on the right. RUT is the mid cap index; This is what moves TZA. The smaller companies have not been doing as good as the Dow. The old saying is that the Generals follow the soldiers on the way down.

30 different people can look at a chart and see 30 different things. I see divergence to the downside.

(the green line going across is just where the indexes (indices ?) closed for the day ). It means nothing, but it a convenient marker line).

Screen Shot 2020-04-10 at 12.46.55 AM (resized).png

That’s an exaggeration. 230k was at the very top of the scale in a model, not a crystal ball. Even the reduced models have 130k at the top of the scale. And that’s with intense social distancing. Which we’re simply not seeing in enough places.

Fact is, no one really knows, and about 1,000 people a day are dying in NY right now. And for the foreseeable future. This isn’t going away anytime soon.

UPDATE: 300k could have been reached....

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Projects Summer Spike In Infections if Stay at Home Orders are Lifted
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/us/coronavirus-updates-usa.html?referringSource=articleShare

New federal projections show a spike in infections if shelter in place orders are lifted at 30 days.

Stay-at-home orders, school closures and social distancing greatly reduce infections of the coronavirus, but lifting those restrictions after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing, government projections indicate.

The projections obtained by The New York Times come from the departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services and are dated April 9. The documents contain no dates for when shelter in places orders were delivered nor do they contain specific dates for when spikes would hit. The risk they show of easing shelter-in-place orders currently in effect in most of the United States undercut recent statements by President Trump that the United States could be ready to reopen “very, very soon.”

If the demand for ventilators is considered a stand-in for serious Covid-19 infection rates, then the model foresees a modest bump immediately when the stay-at-home orders are lifted and a major new spike in infections about 100 days after a shelter in place is ordered, peaking 150 days after the initial order.

For most states that implemented stay-at-home orders in late March, including New York City, Massachusetts and Illinois, that spike would come in mid to late summer.

The government’s conclusions are sobering. Without any mitigation, such as school closings, shelter-in-place orders, telework and socially distancing, the death toll from coronavirus could have reached 300,000. But if the administration lifts the 30-day stay-at-home orders, the death total is estimated to reach 200,000, even if schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of the country continues to work from home and some social distancing continues.

If nothing was done, infection rates would top out at 195 million Americans, and 965,000 people would require hospitalization in an intensive care unit, according to the projections’ “best guess.” But with a 30-day shelter in place and other measures, infections would still reach 160 million and 740,000 would need intensive care.

At the current infection rates, and estimations that the infected double every 3-5 days, the entire population of Canada will be infected by the middle of June.

I wonder if the 38 analysts will be right or wrong -

6B2E0422-1263-49AA-924F-0C808EB55CCA (resized).png

I mean....none of those are bad...apple would have to screw up pretty badly to go down very much. Their followers are as blindly dedicated as the tesla crowd.

[Deleted]

Thanks for moderation PS mods

While we understand the volatile share market is related to Covid 19, Please keep all the Covid 19 guff in its own thread, not here.

I am very interested to see how the next few weeks and months play out in the Share Market. I closely follow the Nasdaq and ASX as they appear to reflect each other. Im poised to strike in the next big dip. I think there will be a wild ride ahead still.

Thanks to the Pinside traders and all people here playing "the game" for shares related posts in this thread.

Have a safe and enjoyable Easter period everyone.

Sorry RA77 and others. I use this information to trade with and thought others would appreciate the fundamental analysis that I have done. The information gets lost in that other thread. I gave up trying to read it.

No problem, while some Covid 19 information in this thread is relevant to trade, I would not like to see this thread spiral out of control with excess Covid 19 data and any to and fro commenting about the virus.

Agreed, Apple is a terrific company, but can certainly take a beating over the short term like anyone else. Long term is my only concern and it appears most educated traders still see value there. However, it would appear the opportunity to create generational wealth in the market with modest equity has closed, but I kind of hope I’m wrong.

The best news we’ve had is our Battery City landlord agreed to waive our rent for 90 days and then reduce our payment by 50% for the remainder of the year in exchange for a 12 month extension. Worst case, this allows us to keep all of our employees for a full year at 80% salary. It’s a no brainer for the landlord, but may turn out to be a real life saver for a few of the folks we employ.

For those who celebrate, I hope you and your families enjoy the holidays.

kpg I appreciate your insight and help.

Riddle me this......Oil stocks are down when too much is being produced with low demand and then oil stocks are down after they come to an agreement to scale back production? By no means am I an investing guru, but can someone explain this?

I appreciate your posts here. I don't know how many financial podcasts and forums I looked at this past week, and all of them pretty much said the same thing...commercial real estate is in real trouble, the government by allowing some people to not pay their bills but still requiring some businesses to make theirs is setting up a financial mess, and none of them see any kind of quick recovery unless some sort of miracle treatment becomes available.

Also none of them know why the market is rebounding currently. Almost all of them are out of it, keeping cash reserves (most of their main investment income is not the stock market). They are however tied in with the economy.

I kind of expect the market to keep going up honestly. We keep having bad news and the market continually ignores it, so I honestly can't see anything that would change it near term until companies start reporting in a couple weeks.

Because even with the new production cutbacks, the news quotas are still pumping more than current demand. So we will still run out of storage, just the same.

Also, the US oil companies need oil to be around $50 a barrel to make money on their rigs because the processes to get/produce the oil are much more costly than the middle east. I am sure that many of the US rigs will be or already have been shutting down.

Oil companies are more than just pulling oil out of the ground. Many of them process the oil. With demand in the tank, they're certainly hurting.

Hi, would like you advise. i am 61 years old, don't have much in my 401k, i had about $108,000 but it's now down to $88,000. i am getting concerned and wondering if i should put everything in cash. here's my allocations
TBCIX 20%
MVCKX 15%
MASKX 10%
RERGX 10%
LHYVX 35%
CEKYX 10%
or should i just keep this allocation since i will not be retiring for about 6 years.

The refineries are getting hammered.

I would stay the course, things will bounce back and you don't want to be out of the market.

What do you guys think. Does oil finish higher or lower on Monday?

Guessing oil prices just seems to be a crapshoot that depends on the actions of the Russian, Saudi, and US governments along with a few other bit players. My percentages guess would be up just based on the low price right now which can only go but so much lower.

Not sure about oil, but I think reality sets in Monday on how devastating this shutdown is going to be for the economy.

Dow 20K +- 500 by Friday IMHO

Or, the news is really bad and the unemployment numbers skyrocket and we hit Dow 30K +-500 by Friday.
At this point, who the fuck knows...

Planning on buying oil but have never bought before, anyone able to give me some quick tips on what/where to buy? I have a TD Ameritrade account set up that I use for stocks.

I can tell you all those unemployed people aren't putting money into the market.

I would guess that most of pinside is on the higher end of the payscales and many of those people are not working right now.

USO if you're just making a straight bet on oil.

I don’t know about Monday, but I’ve bought a lot of oil stocks over the last 3 weeks. There might not be a better buy right now.

Nobody knows.
If you’re not playing long, I’d sit out.

Was this already posted? It seems a cut in production has been agreed on. One would think the price per barrel should trend up some.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/energy/opec-deal-production-cut/index.html

I know, right? We've announced nothing but bad news for 2 weeks and the market has done nothing but go up. If it won't go down on continual really bad news (market up on 6.5 million unemployed?) then I don't know what's going to happen here.

On the oil, they announced cuts but not enough to prevent the looming storage problems coming up. I see oil going lower until that works its way through. I don't think there's going to be enough demand to prevent that issue unless the US producers also cut a bunch.

Hope you’re right.

I don't know what will happen really. It might go up short term on the news, and then fall as the glut becomes worse, or maybe more people will cut, who knows.

Speaking of oil, thoughts on oil tanker stocks? I’ve been doing some research and found four that I think will do well. Plan is to buy and hold for 1 year then sell. Anyone else looking into these?

Dude is 4-6 years from retirement. Should probably go to cash/bonds anyways.

and here we goo....down...let's see if it bounces at the gap close...

Could be an interesting week.

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-china-and-the-week-ahead-202004121620

Chinese data will be a signal to what might be coming for rest of the world.

The second is China's Q1 GDP. The economy had expanded by 1.5% in Q4 quarter-over-quarter for a year-over-year rate of 6%. The median forecast in the Bloomberg surveys a quarterly decline of nearly 10% and a year-over-year contraction of 6%. First-mover may have some advantages for selling books on the internet, but not for emerging from the health crisis. If it is the factory of the world, its customers are in lockdown to various degrees. Moreover, on the other side, the supply chains by shortened and alternatives to China will likely accelerate. Japan earmarked funds to be used to help Japanese companies leave China. Europe recognizes the need to re-onshore the parts of the medical infrastructure that had been outsourced to China.

Problem with unemployment numbers are that a large percentage of them are temporary.
I know some small business owners that are collecting unemployment while they are closed

Right, but most of them weren’t able to put money into the market when they WERE working.

Apple
Shopify
Trade Desk

Nice Day on the long term journey!

Tesla up $80 per share.. what a joke! I wonder how much $$$ they will lose this year?

So you think the only people laid off now are minimum wage workers?

I think it’s mostly mid-to-low-wage workers who are getting hit right now. That’s just my hunch, no evidence to back it up.

Roku up big after hours on prelim numbers

TTD following

20 day and 50 day moving averages all that is relevant Right now

Market held support at 2730 closing at 2735, on the way to 2650 if that level doesn’t hold and then a possibility to fill the gap down to 2450

Great businesses with excellent balance sheets and little to no net debt win

Liquidity is awash all over the marketplace

If current levels hold shorts are gonna experience another round of short term pain!

Anyone here have a favorite penny stock they’re taking a gamble on? I’m mostly looking to jump into the market soon with some O&G penny stocks, but am interested in throwing money at other penny stocks for fun if there’s a Somewhat logical reason behind it.

Lots of talk about lifting the stay at home bans. If that gets some lift, we could see an uptick.

CA, OR & WA planning to announce a joint plan to slowly reopen the west coast. Structure combined with anything related to opening CA will be favorable to the market. Poor earning's are already priced in, but what the market *should* do and *actually* does are anyone's guess.