(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #3301 51 days ago

    Next week they will furlough the complete auto industry, we will hit the record for unemployment claims.

    #3302 51 days ago

    What will happen to the markets once all of the unemployment claims actually can be processed? A lot of people have had a hard time getting their unemployment applications to go through the online systems from what I have read.

    Just an example:

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241458866.html

    #3303 51 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    What will happen to the markets once all of the unemployment claims actually can be processed?

    Nothing.

    #3304 51 days ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    His campaign has been toast for longer than we've been on a "stay at home" order, so I find it hard to believe that Sanders dropping out was a factor.
    KPG- Has anything changed from your 23,700 resistance level? Or does that appear ready to fall? Thanks.

    Honestly nothing has really changed as far as that being a resistance level or not. It has already been tested once, and we saw a 700+ pt drop after hitting it, so its definitely a wall.

    The problem I have is after watching today's price action. As I mentioned before, my opinion can change after each trading session. Charts dont tell the entire story either. I also factor in price action and volume. Today's price action didn't give me confidence we will see a rush of volume on the downside just yet. It seemed the market was floating up on little to no volume which to me is more algorithm based action then legit buying pressure.

    When you see strong direction you usually see that with big volume. Now keep in mind most weeks that have a holiday normally has low volume and those to me are the riskiest because of how easily low volume markets can be manipulated.

    Without rambling on here, what made me close my positions even though the chart shows resistance is that volume drying up. That means if we get another gap up tomorrow, the volume can pick up from shorts forcing to buy back and squeezing the market higher as they wont want to be short over the weekend. I am going to assume many traders and even retail may have gone short today with my same thinking, and the squeeze could create the momentum to propel it over the 23,700 mark.

    So basically my gut instinct and intuition is telling me that there could be some faking out over this key area.. maybe we get a pop over it, causes a squeeze, then we see the selling volume coming in. I think its best to see how the battle at 23,700 works out before making any decisions either long or short now to me. Especially with the current negative economical news ahead of us.

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    #3305 51 days ago

    I have been lurking here for a while now. You've got a good thread here! I enjoy and appreciate all of the information posted, especially by kpg, since I'm not a technical analyst. I am a fundamental analyst and I want to share what I have learned about CoVid-19 with you:

    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/37#post-5546370

    My background is in IT as a developer and an analyst. I traded the market in the late 90's and got out in 2000. I just recently got back in as my research told me that with the markets being so 'frothy', as my friend so quaintly said, this was the opportunity of a lifetime.

    If you want to have an idea what is in store for the United States, keep an eye on the Eastern Asian countries and a few European nations as they try to reopen their economies.

    If you have any questions about CoVid-19, I will be glad to try to answer them as honestly and accurately as I can. Know your enemy!

    #3307 51 days ago

    No cars = No sheet metal, no machine shop work, no glass, no rubber, no leather or cloth. No electronics parts.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/business/auto-industry-coronavirus-impact/index.html

    #3308 51 days ago

    It's all about the access to capital when things reopen. That is what will indicate the speed of the recovery. Not access to labor or markets or industrcture etc, ....but capital.

    #3309 51 days ago
    Quoted from Pecos:

    I have been lurking here for a while now. You've got a good thread here! I enjoy and appreciate all of the information posted, especially by kpg, since I'm not a technical analyst. I am a fundamental analyst and I want to share what I have learned about CoVid-19 with you:
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/37#post-5546370
    My background is in IT as a developer and an analyst. I traded the market in the late 90's and got out in 2000. I just recently got back in as my research told me that with the markets being so 'frothy', as my friend so quaintly said, this was the opportunity of a lifetime.
    If you want to have an idea what is in store for the United States, keep an eye on the Eastern Asian countries and a few European nations as they try to reopen their economies.
    If you have any questions about CoVid-19, I will be glad to try to answer them as honestly and accurately as I can. Know your enemy!

    Damn, very informative post on Covid virus, you have definitely done your homework!

    #3310 51 days ago

    Dumb retail investor question: the Fed has opened a vein, and the national debt was already over 100% of GDP when this started. How is this not game over?

    #3311 51 days ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    Dumb retail investor question: the Fed has opened a vein, and the national debt was already over 100% of GDP when this started. How is this not game over?

    Too political of an answer.

    Honestly, in this age, why be concerned about the national debt? Clearly, it means almost nothing in the grand scheme of things at this point. It's used as a threat to create fear, but no one has an issue with it going up if it's convenient. Seems to be an outdated issue, or at the very least, not as important as it once was.

    #3312 51 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    What has changed? Maybe the infections have slowed?

    I love that you think the market must “know something we don’t know”.

    Markets don’t move in straight lines. Right now there’s technical limits that markets will test. Remember the market is made up of high frequency computers, institutional buyers who only are on the buy side (pensions, etc), and 401k contributors. Things can go up when the trend is still down long term

    #3313 51 days ago

    I’ve been saying it all along. The numbers don’t add up and invest accordingly

    The IHME dropped the death toll estimate down to 60k from 245k on March 25th. Yes that number included social distancing

    Surprise, the models were WAY off and are being adjusted down every day

    The markets are reflecting that FACT and there will be no avoiding the slow trickle now of good news coming on the back side of that slope

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    I’m not saying the market is gonna shoot straight back up. It’s not. I think we are about to enter the lower volatility sideways zone

    #3314 51 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    The IHME dropped the death toll estimate down to 60k from 245k on March 25th.
    [...]
    The markets are reflecting that FACT

    That’s all I needed to see to stay in cash. When people start touting new estimates as FACT, well...

    #3315 51 days ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    That’s all I needed to see to stay in cash. When people start touting new estimates as FACT, well...

    Good for you but it is a FACT that the estimates are coming down and it appears the markets are reacting to it.

    Bury you head in the sand, but i'd probably stay in cash too if i was already there.

    It's also a FACT that the jobless numbers are gonna be HUGE again. I'm pretty sure that won't be a surprise to anybody but maybe it will.

    I'm not trying to disappoint the doom and gloom depression guys but it is what it is.

    It was another really good day, and excellent news to be optimistic about.

    #3316 51 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    I’ve been saying it all along. The numbers don’t add up and invest accordingly
    The IHME dropped the death toll estimate down to 60k from 245k on March 25th. Yes that number included social distancing
    Surprise, the models were WAY off and are being adjusted down every day
    The markets are reflecting that FACT and there will be no avoiding the slow trickle now of good news coming on the back side of that slope
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
    I’m not saying the market is gonna shoot straight back up. It’s not. I think we are about to enter the lower volatility sideways zone

    Who is modeling this? So New York is going to go from 9000 cases per day to zero in 21 days?

    Forgive me if I seem a little skeptical.

    071DB360-3C8E-40DF-8EC7-29F750D4AC68 (resized).png
    #3317 51 days ago

    Also, according to that site, New York with their 151k cases is supposed to be virus free faster than my state, Kansas, with our 1k cases. I'm not sure I follow their modeling at all.

    #3318 51 days ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Who is modeling this? So New York is going to go from 9000 cases per day to zero in 21 days?
    Forgive me if I seem a little skeptical.[quoted image]

    It's actually the projections referred to today by Cuomo and Dr. Birx

    The media has spiraled this so far out of control that it's hard to imagine anything less that total annihilation is possible.

    The model is based on "actual" results here in the United States now and NOT based on former guesstimates from the Italy disaster and Wuhan numbers.

    It's the SAME model Fauci and Birx relied on partly to predict 100k-240k deaths a few weeks ago

    If it's bad news i believe it, if its good news going in the other direction then something must be off?

    Either way, there is your answer to the short term market move. Whether it sticks, who knows?

    “Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I don’t accept everyday we’re going to have to have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. I think we can really bring that down." Dr. Fauci

    "New York state officials have said they are drawing on at least four different models, including IHME’s."

    #3319 51 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    It's actually the projections referred to today by Cuomo and Dr. Birx
    The media has spiraled this so far out of control that it's hard to imagine anything less that total annihilation is possible.
    The model is based on "actual" results here in the United States now and NOT based on former guesstimates from the Italy disaster and Wuhan numbers.
    It's the SAME model Fauci and Birx relied on partly to predict 100k-240k deaths a few weeks ago
    If it's bad news i believe it, if its good news going in the other direction then something must be off?
    Either way, there is your answer to the short term market move. Whether it sticks, who knows?
    “Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I don’t accept everyday we’re going to have to have 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. I think we can really bring that down." Dr. Fauci
    "New York state officials have said they are drawing on at least four different models, including IHME’s."

    Great. So you 100% believe all this. Here's your chance to make some money then. I bet you $100 that New York has more daily cases than Kansas on May 1st. If you believe the modeling so much, easy money right?

    #3320 51 days ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Great. So you 100% believe all this. Here's your chance to make some money then. I bet you $100 that New York has more daily cases than Kansas on May 1st. If you believe the modeling so much, easy money right?

    Who said it was easy? It's just MY opinion trying to make sense of it all. Here is a nice negative perspective article for you guys making the bear case.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336737-stock-market-bears-reward-patience

    As for the daily cases, we shut down the entire economy based on "models". There are 14,779 deaths as of now in the US, 6,268 of those are in New York state due to the all the various reasons. 498 in the state of California.

    I don't see how there is any way we reach even 60k deaths but the closer we get to the back end the more accurate the models will get from a mathematical certainty.

    If you aren't factoring in these recent developments into your short term investment decisions then you should be.

    Does it make me feel good about plowing new money into this rally? Nope. But i'm confident in the pillars of our economy being intact and ready to restart sooner than expected.

    I'm not saying things are gonna be a bed of roses, they aren't. But the overall market is recognizing the positive green chutes as the curve flattens and we get MORE certainty.

    #3321 51 days ago

    It would be interesting for pinsiders to post their returns since the start of this thread, and various approaches to the market. I'm more of a buy and hold guy than kpg from his description. My timing was off, as I considered going to cash before this correction...but it was going too well...oops. Still off 20% but there are some good values out there right now, so I'm both moving some to cash and investing in other equities.

    #3322 51 days ago

    I don't have a problem with being a glass half full type, but just because you say it and capitalize FACT doesn't make you right. Just like you weren't right when it fell, and continued to fall while telling everyone they were 'dummies' for believing the fake news and the 'numbers don't lie'. You're pumping for the sake of pumping (mostly for yourself) and apparently think trying to sell others on that notion will somehow help make it true. I get this impression you are really hurting stock wise and that's unfortunate (and hopefully not true). I know people who are making out like bandits right now, but they aren't playing long term.

    I think anyone claiming to know for a FACT whats going to happen at this point is kidding themselves. You got a 50/50 chance of it happening.

    I think we all agree the market will go up and up....at SOME point. Trying to figure out when is another matter. That being said, maybe if we don't go much lower than what we already did, buying in small now isn't such a bad idea. I do agree with averaging down, but the market has yet to get back to where I sold everything that was up. I guess it all depends on where you are sitting now. For me, it makes more sense to wait since companies are cutting dividends.

    The things that I am still holding, I was already down on anyway, so held them to average down. Well and 401k..I didn't re-balance any of it so crossing fingers that continuing to pour money into that like normal will work out.

    #3323 51 days ago
    Quoted from dts:

    It would be interesting for pinsiders to post their returns since the start of this thread, and various approaches to the market. I'm more of a buy and hold guy than kpg from his description. My timing was off, as I considered going to cash before this correction...but it was going too well...oops. Still off 20% but there are some good values out there right now, so I'm doing both moving some to cash and investing in other equities.

    It's been a great time to rebalance and focus on certain sectors and individual stocks and avoid others.

    I don't know of anyone that's every been able to capture all of the upside in a market and none of the down

    My analogy is like the pilot who comes on and says "its time to buckle up, we might experience a rough ride up ahead". Maybe they change altitude to find some smoother air or try and fly around the storm? Either way, you the pilot and passenger will eventually get through the rough ride and land safely at your destination!

    It's nice to be able to take a positive breather for a bit after that white knuckle roller coaster

    Maybe i'm just pissing in the wind here and none of this makes a bit of sense to anybody! Oh well.

    #3324 51 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Who said it was easy? It's just MY opinion trying to make sense of it all. Here is a nice negative perspective article for you guys making the bear case.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4336737-stock-market-bears-reward-patience
    As for the daily cases, we shut down the entire economy based on "models". There are 14,779 deaths as of now in the US, 6,268 of those are in New York state due to the all the various reasons. 498 in the state of California.
    I don't see how there is any way we reach even 60k deaths but the closer we get to the back end the more accurate the models will get from a mathematical certainty.
    If you aren't factoring in these recent developments into your short term investment decisions then you should be.
    Does it make me feel good about plowing new money into this rally? Nope. But i'm confident in the pillars of our economy being intact and ready to restart sooner than expected.
    I'm not saying things are gonna be a bed of roses, they aren't. But the overall market is recognizing the positive green chutes as the curve flattens and we get MORE certainty.

    I didn't say anything about the death totals or anything else, I just said the modeling didn't make sense and you said it was. So put your money where you mouth is. If you believe that it's accurate and by all means by your posting boldness you do, then please back it up. I have never said anything about death totals or anything else, I thought that the original totals they were spouting were pretty far out there.

    But modeling Kansas being higher than New York in 21 days seems ludicrous, yet you are hammering home that it's the truth.

    Back it up if you believe it. I'm willing to back up what I believe here.

    #3325 51 days ago
    Quoted from dts:

    It would be interesting for pinsiders to post their returns since the start of this thread, and various approaches to the market. I'm more of a buy and hold guy than kpg from his description. My timing was off, as I considered going to cash before this correction...but it was going too well...oops. Still off 20% but there are some good values out there right now, so I'm both moving some to cash and investing in other equities.

    All me and my brother have been doing is looking for stocks that will rebound fast based off good news During this time or shorting it when you know it will be down. I know shorting is risky but its been pretty easy to determine when it’s coming and not putting all my eggs in one basket. I have been hurt a couple times shorting but definitely made more than lost. I also look at 1 week Peaks and see what has the most upside for stocks

    As of late the market really seems to react to any positive news and is getting a little less crazy to negative. Not sure how long that will last. I mentioned stz a couple days ago which is in beer, wine etc. we assumed they would have good earnings based off the home consumption Bought at 124 sold at 138 and the rest at 160. Amazon announced it won’t be using its competition trans service, bought UPS in the morning sold when up 5 bucks. Bernie withdraws from running for present, my brother bought Cigna instantly. It went up 8 dollars, sold at the end of the day.

    I’m betting down tomorrow so have sqqq as a short with no market on Friday. I might slow down trading as much as I have lately. I’m sure I’m getting somewhat lucky and I know there are a lot smarter folks who understand this way more than me. Here is how I have done in the last 3 months
    A88B7377-6BAE-4529-AA93-06FD25BA686C (resized).png

    #3326 51 days ago

    assume the models estimating down is because the extreme efforts are actually working though, not that the models were wrong.. i sure hope that's not the message people are getting or the next time we'll be f'd.

    #3327 51 days ago
    Quoted from sd_tom:

    assume the models estimating down is because the extreme efforts are actually working though, not that the models were wrong.. i sure hope that's not the message people are getting or the next time we'll be f'd.

    That's the excuse some are using Tom for being wrong. No, the models included "social distancing" in them originally.

    There aren't any do-overs or excuses for "extreme social distancing" now. Models were flat out WRONG and scientists admit to it all the time!

    “Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

    And no accountability for being wrong either. But hey, you are correct, we will be much better prepared next time!

    These predictions or lack thereof are having a huge impact on the market swings. Make no mistake, "economic models" are often way off and wrong as well.

    The bottom line is that the markets are reacting to the gold standard Dr. Fauci acknowledging the fact that "as you get data in, you modify your model".

    Logically, as positive data is coming in, the models are being revised downward, quickly, with respect to the death toll and that lends itself to a quicker and safer re-launch of the economy, thus a market swing to the positive.

    #3328 51 days ago
    Quoted from dts:

    It would be interesting for pinsiders to post their returns since the start of this thread, and various approaches to the market. I'm more of a buy and hold guy than kpg from his description. My timing was off, as I considered going to cash before this correction...but it was going too well...oops. Still off 20% but there are some good values out there right now, so I'm both moving some to cash and investing in other equities.

    I'm in cash currently (well money market and some bond stuff). It doesn't have anything to do with where I think the market is going currently. I sold about 1/2 my stocks in my 401k on the first down day of this thing. I don't invest in stocks really outside of my 401k, I'd rather invest in more stable things with better returns.

    The market could go up, it could down, it doesn't really matter, I'm just setting up a defensive position in case we're in for a long term battle against this virus. Regardless of whether it goes up or down the next month or two, unemployment is probably going to be 20+ percent, a lot of businesses aren't coming back, and the earnings are going to be crap for most of the other businesses.

    What I'm protecting against is if their models are wrong and this drags out all summer, causing more unemployment and consumers to horde cash. Nobody has been able to get this under control completely, and we're way less disciplined than most countries (probably the worst honestly according to google tracking data). And at what point does it open back up, and how do you keep people from spreading it again at places like Disney and New York?

    #3329 51 days ago

    It's really tough to argue what the stock market will do based on news. I wish I knew a way to make money timing news events and how the market will react. I think it's definitely a coin flip when doing that. But, if you can time scheduled economic data news releases at key technical areas, then you can make trading/investing decisions from there.

    For me, focusing on the technical aspect of the markets first and foremost is key. Then, combine those technical levels with scheduled economic data releases.

    If you've followed my posts for the last couple of weeks, I actually precisely timed the market bounce and posted a chart about it, and actually had my first 22K target set, and if that broke, my 23.7K target. So essentially I have been buying and going long for almost the entire duration of this bounce which I felt was needed and expected, but fundamentally did now change the fact that in my opinion is a bear market.

    Now that I feel the "meat" of the rally is exhausted and we did see a 700+ point retreat literally at almost that exact 23.7K territory, I am no longer long.

    Timing is key.

    With jobless numbers coming out tomorrow, could that propel the selling at the key technical resistance area in the markets?

    Or somehow create a rally to break that resistenace and propel higher? Because a big move over 23.7K propels an extremely bullish move higher and to me THAT is when I'd consider the bear market exit. A strong high volume move over the 200d moving average.

    With that said, I'm all cash. I caught the meat of the rally as the risk/reward was the to upside. Now, risk/reward seems to favor the downside. Rather than roll the dice as to what happens here, I kick back and preserve my gains and watch for a definitive direction at this key level.

    I have no position, but I strongly feel that the job numbers this time could create a reversal from this key resistance level. To me, this bear market rally is exhausted.

    Tomorrow.. key technical resistance + job numbers = the perfect storm for a big move..

    #3330 51 days ago
    Quoted from Pecos:

    I have been lurking here for a while now. You've got a good thread here! I enjoy and appreciate all of the information posted, especially by kpg, since I'm not a technical analyst. I am a fundamental analyst and I want to share what I have learned about CoVid-19 with you:
    https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/the-official-coronavirus-containment-thread/page/37#post-5546370
    My background is in IT as a developer and an analyst. I traded the market in the late 90's and got out in 2000. I just recently got back in as my research told me that with the markets being so 'frothy', as my friend so quaintly said, this was the opportunity of a lifetime.
    If you want to have an idea what is in store for the United States, keep an eye on the Eastern Asian countries and a few European nations as they try to reopen their economies.
    If you have any questions about CoVid-19, I will be glad to try to answer them as honestly and accurately as I can. Know your enemy!

    Wow. Thanks for linking to that. Just read your post and you definitely know your stuff. A lot better stuff than my buddy has been texting me for the last couple of days speculating Bill Gates made the virus and Dr. Fauci is part of the conspiracy

    #3331 51 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    That's the excuse some are using Tom for being wrong. No, the models included "social distancing" in them originally.
    There aren't any do-overs or excuses for "extreme social distancing" now. Models were flat out WRONG and scientists admit to it all the time!
    “Models are good, they help us to make projections. But as you get data in, you modify your model,” said Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
    And no accountability for being wrong either. But hey, you are correct, we will be much better prepared next time!
    These predictions or lack thereof are having a huge impact on the market swings. Make no mistake, "economic models" are often way off and wrong as well.
    The bottom line is that the markets are reacting to the gold standard Dr. Fauci acknowledging the fact that "as you get data in, you modify your model".
    Logically, as positive data is coming in, the models are being revised downward, quickly, with respect to the death toll and that lends itself to a quicker and safer re-launch of the economy, thus a market swing to the positive.

    There’s no fool proof model dude. But you seem to be believing whatever one backs your point. Good luck with that.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

    #3332 51 days ago

    To make a wise informed investment decision you have to be educated to both sides of any argument and consider the alternatives.

    I'd agree with KPG that the rally feels stretched and further bolstered by the RSI going to from way oversold to quickly approaching 70, i think we closed at 65 or so today?

    Not to mention that the futures are drifting slightly lower.

    Patiently awaiting a pullback in this new bull market.

    #3333 51 days ago

    What is the current p/e for the Dow?

    With everything going on it should be way lower than historical average?

    Or is market still technically overvalued?

    #3334 51 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    To make a wise informed investment decision you have to be educated to both sides of any argument and consider the alternatives.
    I'd agree with KPG that the rally feels stretched and further bolstered by the RSI going to from way oversold to quickly approaching 70, i think we closed at 65 or so today?
    Not to mention that the futures are drifting slightly lower.
    Patiently awaiting a pullback in this new bull market.

    Futures are very low volume and easily manipulated - they are currently up big looking to squeeze shorts on the open as I suspected. Mnuchin knows all about this as Goldman traders have bragged for years how they could literally use enough capital to buy futures and create a gap up the next day to squeeze shorts. You better believe the Fed is working behind the scenes to do this. Futures are a total scam.

    But one thing that makes me feel pretty confident the next wave down of this bear market is coming, is because of Iceman popping into this thread.

    Now that we see an extended rally, the "super bulls" come out and think everything is fine and it's a new bull market. They have very short memories of the bloodbath that was occuring in the markets the previous month. This is all the same thing I saw during the last crash and Iceman is the perfect contrarian indicator.

    No offense of course to you Iceman. Don't take it personal. You're just one of many I see from time to time pop their heads out after the market has made a big move, and it's a bearish sign. Buy on fear, sell on greed... And a 6000+ pt move off the low and some nice gains will make people greedy for more.

    #3335 51 days ago

    anyone subscribe to this theory:
    thursday will be a manipulated up day so that americans can better enjoy their holiday weekend. any carnage will be postponed into next week.

    #3336 51 days ago
    Quoted from greenhornet:

    anyone subscribe to this theory:
    thursday will be a manipulated up day so that americans can better enjoy their holiday weekend. any carnage will be postponed into next week.

    I bet down yesterday and Still think it will be down. Jobless claims among other news isnt great and end of the week is typically down. Not sure how it would get manipulated enough to be up but maybe. I have been wrong a lot

    #3337 51 days ago

    Fed announced a new 2.3 Trillion lending program.

    #3338 51 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Fed announced a new 2.3 Trillion lending program.

    Yeah, great response from the fed, futures are up. I’m still saying down for the day but the fed is on it

    #3339 51 days ago

    I'm about 40% in the market right now
    I fully expect another decent drop coming where I will add to my positions and buy new ones.
    My uneducated guess puts the market back up to at least current levels before i need to cash out
    As trading is not my job, I just can't try and time that market like others do

    #3340 51 days ago
    Quoted from greenhornet:

    anyone subscribe to this theory:
    thursday will be a manipulated up day so that americans can better enjoy their holiday weekend. any carnage will be postponed into next week.

    Lately they have all been manipulated. Fed puts it in one end and 1% withdraws it on the other. Bad news? Up day. Worse news? Up higher.
    A glut of oil and no drivers or Manufacturers using it, heating season over? Oil up.
    Health Care related? Hospitals wide open but we make our money on electives. Down.

    #3341 51 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Futures are very low volume and easily manipulated - they are currently up big looking to squeeze shorts on the open as I suspected. Mnuchin knows all about this as Goldman traders have bragged for years how they could literally use enough capital to buy futures and create a gap up the next day to squeeze shorts. You better believe the Fed is working behind the scenes to do this. Futures are a total scam.
    But one thing that makes me feel pretty confident the next wave down of this bear market is coming, is because of Iceman popping into this thread.
    Now that we see an extended rally, the "super bulls" come out and think everything is fine and it's a new bull market. They have very short memories of the bloodbath that was occuring in the markets the previous month. This is all the same thing I saw during the last crash and Iceman is the perfect contrarian indicator.
    No offense of course to you Iceman. Don't take it personal. You're just one of many I see from time to time pop their heads out after the market has made a big move, and it's a bearish sign. Buy on fear, sell on greed... And a 6000+ pt move off the low and some nice gains will make people greedy for more.

    I don't take it personal brother. Just adding my two cents from time to time when the opportunity presents itself and people might need a little additional input.

    People can scroll back through this thread since inception and see my comments, especially as it pertains to Apple.

    "Buy when there is blood in the streets", yes. And i don't see a ton of "greed" right now. Trillions of cash sitting on the sidelines.

    6.6 million more jobs lost and up we go. 1) Fed policy, don't fight the fed 2) tax policy, low taxes 3) trade policy, china, mexico, canada, and what's coming 4) fiscal policy, that is speaking for itself right now.

    Get ready for the trickle of GOOD NEWS mixed in, with respect to starting the market. Did i say "DON'T FIGHT THE FED"?

    How many people missed the move because they "buy high and sell low"? Goldman Sachs economists are no better than the science modelers All economists for that matter.

    Even CNBC talking heads are walking back their "doom and gloom" take down after the fact as per usual.

    As for popping in, I'm ALWAYS in touch with the market 24/7, it's what i get paid to do, with approx. 500 mill AUM. . Ok, now back to work.

    Adding some perspective to this NEW bull market, that's it, GL trading brother!

    #3342 51 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Futures are very low volume and easily manipulated - they are currently up big looking to squeeze shorts on the open as I suspected. Mnuchin knows all about this as Goldman traders have bragged for years how they could literally use enough capital to buy futures and create a gap up the next day to squeeze shorts. You better believe the Fed is working behind the scenes to do this. Futures are a total scam.
    But one thing that makes me feel pretty confident the next wave down of this bear market is coming, is because of Iceman popping into this thread.
    Now that we see an extended rally, the "super bulls" come out and think everything is fine and it's a new bull market. They have very short memories of the bloodbath that was occuring in the markets the previous month. This is all the same thing I saw during the last crash and Iceman is the perfect contrarian indicator.
    No offense of course to you Iceman. Don't take it personal. You're just one of many I see from time to time pop their heads out after the market has made a big move, and it's a bearish sign. Buy on fear, sell on greed... And a 6000+ pt move off the low and some nice gains will make people greedy for more.

    You made a great move yesterday. Somebody knew what was coming.

    https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/04/09/Dow-Jones-Soars-US-Dollar-Drops-as-Fed-Announces-Huge-Loan-Program.html

    Federal Reserve Steals the Show with Huge Loan Program

    US Dollar Drops, While Dow Jones Soars

    The Federal Reserve looks to have stolen the show once again, completely overshadowing the initial jobless claims data, after announcing further measures to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans in order to support the economy ultimately providing a credit backstop.

    Key Details

    Main Street Lending Program: Enhancing support for small and mid-sized business with purchases of up to $600bln worth of loans.
    Municipal Liquidity Facility: Helping local and state governments manage cash flow stresses through lending as much as $500bln to states and municipalities.
    Expanding the size and scope of the Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities (PMCCF and SMCCF) as well as the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), where these three programs will now support up to $850bln in credit.
    Supplying liquidity to participating financial institutions through term financing backed by PPP loans to small businesses
    Full Fed Announcement

    Market reaction: In reaction to more unprecedented action by the Federal Reserve, the US Dollar dropped across the board with EUR/USD breaking above 1.0900, while US equity futures and gold pushed higher. (Gold trading like a risk asset)

    #3343 51 days ago

    Where is this money coming from??

    Is it just off the printing presses?

    Market should not be going up but it is.....

    Ride the wave until it comes crashing down again.

    #3344 51 days ago

    How much of the up action is FOMO at this point? Do people really think 'all is well'?

    #3345 51 days ago
    Quoted from Shapeshifter:

    Where is this money coming from??

    In the end it will come from Generations Y, Z, and beyond.

    #3346 51 days ago

    n/m...looks liek sell the news is coming....

    #3347 51 days ago

    The money is in loans, it's not free money. Assuming it gets paid back, the Fed / government / banks will make money in the long run off this.

    #3348 51 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    In the end it will come from Generations Y, Z, and beyond.

    And their kids. No one cares any more. Keep those pressers running.

    #3349 51 days ago
    Quoted from Shapeshifter:

    Where is this money coming from??
    Is it just off the printing presses?
    Market should not be going up but it is.....
    Ride the wave until it comes crashing down again.

    Where is the money coming from. Some wonk types some numbers on a computer screen, hits Return and POOF !

    I remember when we used to be own the gold standard.

    #3350 51 days ago

    I remember a couple of weeks ago the President said the government "made a lot of money" off the 07/08 stimulus packages.

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