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Quoted from kpg:If wanting to do incremental buys, you really need to see when its best to start those buys though that's the point. Knowing when the indicators say its an oversold condition. On VTI, it entered my technical area I consider oversold on March 23rd right at $114-116/share. I believe that was right around the day I posted I was buying tons of stocks for a huge bounce.
I feel the opposite today lol
As for your incremental buys you started at the top and caught a knife and weathered a ton of pain and money to get your average to what appears may be breakeven right now.
If the market turns against you, all of those buys above $135 will now be underwater, which it looks like the majority of your holdings are above $135.
The March 23rd buy was great, as most people felt so much pain that day and panic sold everything.. so good job on that one for sure. I'd probably be selling half if it was me, and buying the other half back when the market gets kicked in the nuts again, but thats me
All I know is when we get some great selling pressure to the downside again and retests the Dow 19Ks, thats where I begin my incremental buys for long holds. Because theres a great chance thats where the bottom gets formed.
Thanks. Yes I had more firepower to buy more if it kept going under 110. That's exactly my plan on selling half at break even and buying down if it drops again. I had a few smaller buys not pictured in the 160-170 range from a couple months before that, so the average was around $140.
But again, this is a small SEP IRA and I haven't contributed anything for this year yet. If it turns down again, I'll have enough cash to essentially double down if it goes under $110, bringing the average under $125. I'm not good enough, or patient enough, to time the market, but being in an IRA it's money I can't touch for another 20+ years. In 20 years I'm sure even $170 will look like a good buy.
My brokerage account is where my individual stocks are at. That's where I've been selling puts and covered calls. I sold a bunch of puts out 1-2 weeks during the last week of March that all expired worthless. Now I'm selling calls against most of my longs, most dated May-July to make the premiums big enough.
Quoted from loneacer:Thanks. Yes I had more firepower to buy more if it kept going under 110. That's exactly my plan on selling half at break even and buying down if it drops again. I had a few smaller buys not pictured in the 160-170 range from a couple months before that, so the average was around $140.
But again, this is a small SEP IRA and I haven't contributed anything for this year yet. If it turns down again, I'll have enough cash to essentially double down if it goes under $110, bringing the average under $125. I'm not good enough, or patient enough, to time the market, but being in an IRA it's money I can't touch for another 20+ years. In 20 years I'm sure even $170 will look like a good buy.
My brokerage account is where my individual stocks are at. That's where I've been selling puts and covered calls. I sold a bunch of puts out 1-2 weeks during the last week of March that all expired worthless. Now I'm selling calls against most of my longs, most dated May-July to make the premiums big enough.
Excellent idea, that is exactly what I was going to suggest - selling covered calls against the longs.
When I go in heavy on the long side again for the long term, my strategy will go back to selling tons of covered calls when we get the boring market movements.
Today, in my opinion, is an amazing opportunity to write covered calls
Quoted from kpg:Excellent idea, that is exactly what I was going to suggest - selling covered calls against the longs.
When I go in heavy on the long side again for the long term, my strategy will go back to selling tons of covered calls when we get the boring market movements.
Today, in my opinion, is an amazing opportunity to write covered calls
Is there much option action in VTI? I didn't consider selling calls on that. I just requested to have options added to that account.
Quoted from loneacer:Is there much option action in VTI? I didn't consider selling calls on that. I just requested to have options added to that account.
Not sure but I like stocks with liquid options, AAPL, DIA, SPY, etc
Those are the best for writing covered calls. Market looking weak AF after that resistance test.
I've been quiet as there has been nothing to talk about. I am waiting for this to go back down and will be getting off the sideline then. This is killing me having all of this powder on the side but there is no way in hell I buy here.
Quoted from Concretehardt:Well shoot, I bought a little TZA today but had a Dr appointment so I set a trailing stop loss and got bounced out of it while I was at my appointment [quoted image][quoted image]
Yeah that hurts but hey you came out ahead. Could have been worse.
I noticed something highly unusual today near the close.
A MASSIVE amount of volume came into the markets in literally a few seconds. It was weird. Almost a mini-flash crash that went undetected to most people who dont watch this closely.
Look at the chart and notice the volume bar spike during that timeframe relative to the rest of the day.
Could have been a massive short position, or some type of huge sell order in the overall markets.. I don't know, but if I was long I'd be nervous right now.
tempsnip1.pngI watched the last 5 minutes of trading and it was all over the place. I think we could have red tomorrow.
Quoted from kpg:Not sure but I like stocks with liquid options, AAPL, DIA, SPY, etc
Those are the best for writing covered calls. Market looking weak AF after that resistance test.
Yes. Options with no liquidity carry horrendous spreads. The CBOE floor traders will eat your lunch and have a steak dinner at your expense.
It's been fun going back and forth in here with you guys and I can't promise after the quarantine i'll have time to post in here as much, but it reminds me of the days I used to run my stock trading chatroom. I'd have 200-300 members in there and we'd just discuss the market all day and i'd be throwing out my analysis and trade ideas. Sure I got paid to do that, but it was stressful. Too many expectations to meet. Either way, I kind of miss it in a way now haha
Quoted from pinlink:I saw that too, what the heck? Went from a green day to red real fast.
More red tomorrow?
Quoted from DBLM:I watched the last 5 minutes of trading and it was all over the place. I think we could have red tomorrow.
Here is a 5-day chart on the left. Opened with a big bang and fizzled. On the right is a one month chart. The opening filled the gap form 3 weeks ago and turned back.
Quoted from RA77:Reference ? Is this you KPG
"We are still at the mercy of headlines"
I agree with most of what he said. The thing I believe is the market is not factoring in just how bad the economical data is. Much of the news and reports are based from February and early march... just wait until the March numbers come out. Deaths slowing / new Coronavirus cases will be less of a market driver. I truly believe the Virus itself is the appetizer and the economical fallout is the main course. Bear market rally 100%
Quoted from cottonm4:Here is a 5-day chart on the left. Opened with a big bang and fizzled. On the right is a one month chart. The opening filled the gap form 3 weeks ago and turned back.
[quoted image]
Tons of gaps to fill on the downside there.
Quoted from kpg:I agree with most of what he said. The thing I believe is the market is not factoring in just how bad the economical data is. Much of the news and reports are based from February and early march... just wait until the March numbers come out. Deaths slowing / new Coronavirus cases will be less of a market driver. I truly believe the Virus itself is the appetizer and the economical fallout is the main course. Bear market rally 100%
It’s not about the economic data right now.
Any dope knows it’s not gonna be good in the short run 
Live and learn. How much you get paid now for your advice KPG?
Reading charts in this environment?
When is the LOW gonna get retested? Not happening
I’ve got a Starbucks gift card for you brother!
This is your thread and crew so I’m back out. See you in 2021$$$$$$
Quoted from kpg:I noticed something highly unusual today near the close.
A MASSIVE amount of volume came into the markets in literally a few seconds. It was weird. Almost a mini-flash crash that went undetected to most people who dont watch this closely.
Look at the chart and notice the volume bar spike during that timeframe relative to the rest of the day.
Could have been a massive short position, or some type of huge sell order in the overall markets.. I don't know, but if I was long I'd be nervous right now.[quoted image]
Seriously? After a 1600 pt move on Monday and you had some selling into the close?
Worried? Lol 
You tell me when and how much lower it’s going since you know.
I have to agree with the Apple covered call strategy
Actually I’ve made a fortune on LEAPS
Watch where PINS opens manana
My man Concrete gets it! TZA on a short term down move
Ice, there are many valid ways to work the market. You are like Buffet, a buy and hold guy.
But there are some real good traders out there. There are so many ways to play it. Richard Dennis, the legendary futures trader. Paul Tudor Jones, another futures and stock trader. These guys have made pile of money. And they are still around.
Sometimes, I get the opinion that we are mirrors that you use like psyche pawns so you can get ready for another day of the battle of convincing your clients to to buy in choppy markets like this one is. Or try to convince them not to sell.
kpg's post that you link was observation post only.
Quoted from iceman44:Seriously? After a 1600 pt move on Monday and you had some selling into the close?
Worried? Lol
You tell me when and how much lower it’s going since you know.
He said if he was long he would be nervous. OK, you are not. And he said nothing about knowing where it was going. So why the vitriol ?
He is no different than anybody else that looks at the charts and gives an honest answer about it. No chart is going to predict the future. It is just another tool to use. Combine some chart viewing with some fundamental analysis and one can use it to make better entry and exit points.
I hope you have a good day at the office tomorrow, but I do think the market is coming down. How far? Who knows? How long? Who knows?
Oil, Exxon, and oil tariffs.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/business/oil-tariffs-trump-saudi-arabia-russia/index.html
Oil tariffs can best be described as Texas with 38 electoral votes.
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" To protect its dividend, Exxon (XOM) announced Tuesday it will slash spending by 30%, including by dialing back investment in the Permian Basin shale oilfield that made the United States the world's largest producer."
Looks like XOM might be the dividend play, after all.
---------------------------------------------
Quoted from cottonm4:He said if he was long he would be nervous. OK, you are not. And he said nothing about knowing where it was going. So why the vitriol ?
Alcohol induced vitriol. He's like a chocoholic, but with alcohol. Nothing to see here...
Quoted from Concretehardt:Well shoot, I bought a little TZA today but had a Dr appointment so I set a trailing stop loss and got bounced out of it while I was at my appointment [quoted image][quoted image]
was always told you should never enter your trailing stops as sell orders with your broker
enter them just as an alert and manually make the sale
Quoted from Rondogg:Alcohol induced vitriol. He's like a chocoholic, but with alcohol. Nothing to see here...
I disagree. Just because he doesn't have a snowflake mentality doesn't make it cruel in nature. He's just a bit more positive and it's always fun to read.
Quoted from Methos:I disagree. Just because he doesn't have a snowflake mentality doesn't make it cruel in nature. He's just a bit more positive and it's always fun to read.
Be careful who you hitch your wagon to:
https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/search?s=1&q=iceman+drunk&include_basement=0
Quoted from Methos:I disagree. Just because he doesn't have a snowflake mentality doesn't make it cruel in nature. He's just a bit more positive and it's always fun to read.
Sure if needlessly insulting those you disagree with every other post is 'positive and fun to read' for you...
in on some STZ today
when the market drops some i will add to my position - but alcohol sales are strong through this pandemic
It seems like the market is ignoring very bad news and almost desperate to rally on literally anything. I will leave the 75% of my 401k in cash for now as I am not buying anything at these levels.
https://apple.news/Ak7ZcfI92SluZsbrXZqNx5Q
“ U.S. stocks were rising on Wednesday, a day after the Dow and S&P 500 staged their biggest reversals since the 2008 financial crisis, as investors hoped that the U.S. could roll back containment measures put in place to fight the COVID-19 pandemic sooner than expected.
The buoyant sentiment in stocks also may have reflected the announcement that Bernie Sanders had suspended his campaign for the U.S. presidency.”
LMaO yep things sure are bullish (10 million people unemployed) 
929F1FE8-9A7C-4F81-8386-186AC81776A4 (resized).jpegQuoted from loneacer:People have been screaming the market should be lower for 5500 DOW points so far. The market does what it wants to do, not what we think it should do.
We will see what happens 
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dutch_tulip_bulb_market_bubble.asp
Dow still under that 23.7K - still lower than where I was selling calls, although due to time decay I am underwater a small amount for now. I will be adding to my short positions if we can see another squeeze to 23,600-ish or so. That's the ceiling as of now. Obviously if we convincingly close over that i'll close my short and take the loss, but absolutely nothing to indicate I should do so at this moment.
We are 6,000 points off the low.
What has changed? Maybe the infections have slowed?
Economical mayhem is still occurring while there are "hopes" COVID has slowed, one thing is for sure- PROFITS have slowed across the board and that wont change for a while.
When the market shifts from COVID death/infection data being a driver into looking forward at earnings reports and guidance, which should be soon, then this is simply a bear market rally.. same shit we had in 2007/2008. It feels exactly the same.
I am going to guess this is just another ploy to prop the market up like yesterday, sell Calls to dumb retail investors who think the market is going to continue to rally, only for them to expire worthless tomorrow. Today is unload-to-the-bagholder day, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, etc etc.
I also opened a Short Vertical Call spread on SQ today (Square Inc.)
Sold the May 15 $50's
Bought the May 15 $57.50's for a credit of $4.35 to me.
Square has a large exposure to retail and restaurants vs just online. BofA has showed a huge decline anywhere from 20-65% in credit card spending in the past month for SQ merchant categories. This rally will not last for this one, in my opinion.
Quoted from Methos:If you're too sensitive, just put him on ignore.
Nope, I'll just continue to call him on his bs. Oh that's right, he put me on ignore. Can't handle truth. Or maybe he's just too sensitive.
On topic, I believe this tweet that went out today is the reason for the push over 23k a few hours ago. Strange. Feels like manipulation more than positivity.
"Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!"
Posted in #twitter-stream | Today at 10:02 AM
And I'm simply pointing out a possible reason for the uptick. Something I'm always trying to follow and understand the reasons for the movements of the market.
Quoted from iceman44:It’s not about the economic data right now.
Any dope knows it’s not gonna be good in the short run
Live and learn. How much you get paid now for your advice KPG?
Reading charts in this environment?
When is the LOW gonna get retested? Not happening
I’ve got a Starbucks gift card for you brother!
This is your thread and crew so I’m back out. See you in 2021$$$$$$
Ice normally people would be offended by a post like this, but I am not. I wont even downvote it like you do to my posts.
I am just confident in my market reading, and I wont lie, you fit into a category of people I have interfaced with over the years- a lot of them.
They pop out of the bushes when there are green bars, and they disappear when there are red bars. They always claim to make a profit, and are never in the red.
It's all good man. Whatever it is you are doing out there I commend you for being the best there is because you have it all figured out. But please, I invite you to chime in on here and let us know when you are buying those dips and how much you are allocating to your overall portfolio during each buy.
I assume you will not do that. That's your business of course, but if you do have the knowledge that others do not have, please share how and when you are buying. I am always open to new strategies especially if they can make me profit. Best of luck to you bro.
Quoted from Zablon:Nope, I'll just continue to call him on his bs. Oh that's right, he put me on ignore. Can't handle truth. Or maybe he's just too sensitive.
On topic, I believe this tweet that went out today is the reason for the push over 23k a few hours ago. Strange. Feels like manipulation more than positivity.
"Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!"
Posted in #twitter-stream | Today at 10:02 AM
And I'm simply pointing out a possible reason for the uptick. Something I'm always trying to follow and understand the reasons for the movements of the market.
Donald is known for trying to manipulate the market. I mean, he autographed a stock chart because of an intraday spike during his press conference last month... who does that?
Not to mention he hired Steve Mnuchin, a previous hedge fund manager and investor and worked for Goldman Sachs for almost two decades. He has a net worth of $400M+
The guy is a market genius... if anyone knows how to prop up a stock market, it's him. You better believe he's whispering sweet nothings into Trump's ear as well. He's the reason the fed is pumping so much money into the markets and they are doing everything they can to prevent another crash. Let's see how it lasts. Feels like a dam breaking and the Fed is patching up the cracks with JB Weld. How long will that hold?
Quoted from iceman44:Head scratcher ain't it fellas?
Nope - Dow is still under 23,700 resistance. Unless it closes on high volume above that, it's playing out just as I expected so far. And if I am wrong, i'll admit in and go long. If you're wrong, you just disappear lol
Quoted from kpg:It's all good man. Whatever it is you are doing out there I commend you for being the best there is because you have it all figured out. But please, I invite you to chime in on here and let us know when you are buying those dips and how much you are allocating to your overall portfolio during each buy.
Lol, def don't have it all figured out. Who does? Buffet just took a bath on the airlines. Us mere mortals even have a chance?
I'm NOT a day trader for myself or my clients.
Just long term brother, and i am extremely confident where things will be heading and where we will be this time next year. Yeah that takes patience and isn't sexy but i'll take it.
I am HOPING for another few days of big plunge to drop in dry powder. Am i going to bet on the possibility it's going to happen? Nope. I'll just be ready when it does.
The herd is calling for a depression and doom and gloom and so much of that mentality has been priced in. Once again, big picture, Fed policy, fiscal, tax and trade, all check marks. And this virus will pass simply based on the facts in other countries.
IF the economy doesn't get restarted SOON, and i believe it will because it has to, then i would change my outlook.
I'm betting on a scenario that economy reopens in stages soon, vaccines, therapeutics, etc. AND that it will be about the economy AND the virus, not the economy versus the virus. I might end up being wrong, who knows, but i'm betting the federal government understands what the situation is with respect to the economy. At least certain people do, the critical ones. 
This is exactly what the market is telling you as well right now. Day to day though? No economic data matters until we get moving again and no way to guage what's gonna happen daily.
No offense intended to you KPG! We can bust each other's balls. It's ok, all in fun.
GL with your trading brother!
Quoted from kpg:Nope - Dow is still under 23,700 resistance. Unless it closes on high volume above that, it's playing out just as I expected so far. And if I am wrong, i'll admit in and go long. If you're wrong, you just disappear lol
Why would you go long based on any chart right now? All the geniuses say it's a given to retest the lows.
Tell me how you "expect it to play out" over the next several days
All i care about is where we land by the 4th quarter and into 2021. I'm confident we are seeing a buying opportunity of a lifetime. Could be wrong though?
If we can get another good dip i'm looking at going in on some call LEAPS for Apple July 17, 2022, strike price tbd. Sold my prior 2021 calls i set in the $150 trading range last year with $170-$180 strike prices
I can wait out the next few weeks of uncertainty. Might not get the opportunity.
Quoted from Methos:I disagree. Just because he doesn't have a snowflake mentality doesn't make it cruel in nature. He's just a bit more positive and it's always fun to read.
Thank you Methos, POSITIVITY is a great thing brother!!
No vitriol intended, just poking a little a fun at KPG and he can take it like he dishes it out. People need to lighten it up man! There is enough doom and gloom out there.
Closed out all my positions - took a small loss on them, but albeit very small due to my entries yesterday when Dow was at its highs but playing it safe.
Right now all cash. Reason being is although we are at strong resistance, the volume is suspiciously extremely low. That means shorts can get caught in a squeeze and fake out above that 200d MA.
Either way when volume dries up and we are so close to resistance it becomes shaky. I feel there is a ton of downside to be had still but its not worth the gamble to me either short or long.
No matter what position you stand, good luck, even you Iceman 
Quoted from Zablon:Nope, I'll just continue to call him on his bs. Oh that's right, he put me on ignore. Can't handle truth. Or maybe he's just too sensitive.
On topic, I believe this tweet that went out today is the reason for the push over 23k a few hours ago. Strange. Feels like manipulation more than positivity.
"Once we OPEN UP OUR GREAT COUNTRY, and it will be sooner rather than later, the horror of the Invisible Enemy, except for those that sadly lost a family member or friend, must be quickly forgotten. Our Economy will BOOM, perhaps like never before!!!"
Posted in #twitter-stream | Today at 10:02 AM
And I'm simply pointing out a possible reason for the uptick. Something I'm always trying to follow and understand the reasons for the movements of the market.
Maybe because Sanders ceased his campaign?
Quoted from iceman44:Thank you Methos, POSITIVITY is a great thing brother!!
No vitriol intended, just poking a little a fun at KPG and he can take it like he dishes it out. People need to lighten it up man! There is enough doom and gloom out there.
It is interesting how character traits manifests when a crisis hits. Some will remain positive and "carry on", others will coward and recluse, and others will get angry and defensive. Sometimes we ourselves don't know how we're going to act...
I enjoy KPG's posts (very informative) and your own. Debate and discussion is good and healthy. If others can't handle it, put em' on ignore or move to a "safe zone" thread.
Quoted from Methos:Maybe because Sanders ceased his campaign?
That could be as well.
Quoted from Zablon:That could be as well.
His campaign has been toast for longer than we've been on a "stay at home" order, so I find it hard to believe that Sanders dropping out was a factor.
KPG- Has anything changed from your 23,700 resistance level? Or does that appear ready to fall? Thanks.
Quoted from kpg:Closed out all my positions - took a small loss on them, but albeit very small due to my entries yesterday when Dow was at its highs but playing it safe.
Dang! Making me nervous kpg! I still hope you were right when you placed those positions and we see a big drop soon. But I’m not so confident after today.
Quoted from usandthem:His campaign has been toast for longer than we've been on a "stay at home" order, so I find it hard to believe that Sanders dropping out was a factor.
KPG- Has anything changed from your 23,700 resistance level? Or does that appear ready to fall? Thanks.
I was trying to be open minded as I don't truly know, but yes, I agree, I didn't think he was still relevant in the race.
Quoted from Zablon:I was trying to be open minded as I don't truly know, but yes, I agree, I didn't think he was still relevant in the race.
True, but probably ends an chance (or reduced it) of a hostile nomination/convention.
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