I'm curious if the people that liquidated their portfolios have started getting back in yet. Today was the bounce I was hoping for. It gave me a chance to reestablish covered calls for a good chunk of my positions. Now I have a little protection against another drop.

Not yet. The market is still below where I liquidated. I think that we are going to bounce around a bit and still think we see some lows.

Think the market is overvalued considering world events but you can't fight the fed it seems.

I feel like I was just left standing at the station with a bag of cash in my hand.

We will retest the lows.. be patient.

Great news, the virus is gone!! The economy is back!! Everything is awesome!!

I'm dumbfounded at the gains today? I started selling some stocks at a small profit thinking the market would come crashing back down this afternoon. Nope. I'm completely lost and 2nd guessing every move I make. Anyone else with me? Lmao

I am with you. I am no investing wizard and feel like I am trying to bet on which ball in a multi ball game will drain last. Sometimes I feel like they will all drain at the same time and I will still lose.

I am trying to find something to to make a large purchase into and hold for 6-12 months. So, KPG, do you think OXY is a safe bet for the next 6-12 months with a decent return? Just curious!

Yea, it's great that the experienced people are making some money on it, but I'm too scared to throw my hat into the ring just yet.

I agree, I don't know what's going on. It's weird. All we got is that some minor thing that they think New York is slowing, and we're up a ton. Then you find out that New York isn't testing any of the people that didn't make it to the hospital in their count, and they think that's like 200 a day. The numbers are all just completely unreliable other than the fact that we have a huge problem...NONE of the numbers are accurate.

I listened to a bunch of podcasts with people that I think have a good grip on what's going on financially, and not one of them thought that this was going to be over anytime soon. And Buffett's selling, not buying right now evidently.

It just must be day trading swings.

Great positive day today. Tough to figure out right guys with all the doom and gloom? The news is going to get better all month, little by little, just like today.

The numbers? Well, the models appear to be way overestimating the death toll of the virus and new cases are on the decline in many places around the world.

It's a good sign that the bottom was hopefully put in at $18k already. Retest? Who knows, i'd love another chance to load up.

The Vix has dropped significantly and small caps led the way back again today, another good sign.

I'd love to see a few days of just sideways movement. LOL

Buffet sold the airlines and you don't know what he's buying because the 13-F isn't out yet.

It's gonna be a long road back, if you are a long-term investor why worry?

Or IF you are so confident in a retest then hit the TZA and HIBS 3x Bear leverage. Should make a killing!

The numbers for testing are still completely inaccurate. Like borderline ridiculous. So I live in Kansas, so low cases (like 845), you would think that testing would be pretty decent, right? I just found out that a local place just found out that someone had tested positive today...however, they were tested on MARCH 27TH!!!!

Yeah, that's happening TODAY. Like that's how messed up it is still. And in Johnson County, the highest population county in the state, they won't test you unless you're very sick (like going into the hospital). Otherwise they just send you home to isolation without one.

So how accurate do you think numbers are that are delayed 10 days, aren't testing anyone that isn't hospital bound, etc? Like it's way worse than is being reported here.

I think we're rounding off possibly in some areas and still growing in others. But I don't see a clear path to return to work anytime soon around here, and we're one of the smallest totals in the nation. I think we can gradually get it down, but even here, one of the easiest spots in the nation, it will probably take 2 more months minimum. It looks like by the end of April we're going to be at a million cases for the nation (which really means 2 million since 50% are only spreaders that don't show symptoms, and we're not testing any of those)...I don't see how you get that from 2 million down to 0 in a month...or two months...or three months....

I'm a long term investor, but frankly looking at it, I don't see the upside right now. Unemployment is currently estimated at 13%, and after Thursday that number is only going to get worse. So then count the number of Thursdays (which are all going to be bad) till you think this thing is going to subside, and that's the hole we're going to have to dig out of. A ridiculous number of homeowners and small businesses applied for the hardship help, like I don't think they have nearly enough money allocated for it.

We need a viable treatment asap.

Makes sense,
I have my eye on a handful of quality stock the FOMO on this upswing is killing me.
I will stand strong and wait.
Thanks for the encouraging words kgp.
I Jumped in too early before and lost.

I'm thinking some sideways action for a little while. It will be interesting to see if Prez pushes the April 30 date farther out.

That is still three weeks away, and the dailies coming out of Europe are encouraging, although if the world acts like China has, the 2nd wave will hit hard. But by then, the pressure on the hospitals should lessen.

And to a watch!

the bigger they are they harder they fall

I fall solidly in this corner.

Jumped out on the way down at 22k. Jumped back in at 20k on the way up in the kids college fund and IRAs, jumped in Monday morning with the 401k. I have been burned 1 time in the stock market, and that was back in 2011-2012 betting against the market right before they unleashed "Quantitative easing". When the government starts throwing money around, in general, the market goes up. I think the bottom of the market will be in before the worst of the virus hits... which is coming in the next 30 days here in the USA (me thinks). I'm losing my butt on my speculative single stock plays, but am holding on to them for now. I bought Cracker Barrel at 99, it's at 84.88 after market (it briefly dipped down below 70). I bought Red Robin at 12, it's at 10.60 after hours. It was down below 7 last week but has surged 40% in the past 24 hours. I may keep Cracker Barrel long term, but with stocks fluctuating so much I think the restaraunt stocks are oversold. I will probably dump Red Robin in the next month. I am looking at cruise stocks right now, and think Carnival will not be hit as hard as the other cruise lines. It has been my experience that Carnival Cruisers are generally younger than those of the other lines (they are essentially party boats filled with younger people) and will not be hit as hard. There is a fire sale on them right now. Once I can pull a profit of RRGB (somewhere between 15 and 20 a share) I will probably bail on them and go long on Carnival. With the exception of Red Robin and Six Flags (which I pulled a 30% profit on in 24 hours) I am only buying stocks that I think will recover strongly over the next few years if they don't do well short term.

Please note that I am no stock sage, and the vast majority of my retirement/kids college funds are in mutual funds run by professionals. I am throwing around some of my IRA in individual stocks that I can afford to lose, and believe the slow and steady is the way to win in the long run.

Restaurants, Cruise Lines, Movies, Hotels are going to be difficult going forward.
Even when the country opens up who is running out to a Red Robin on jumping on a cruise.
I am itching to eat out, but not so sure I want to sit down in a restaurant so soon
I speculated on Cruise lines and lost a "boat load" - I would not buy in with my worst enemies money - there are much safer bets out there.

Six Flags is probably a good bet, the younger generation will flock to amusement parks this summer. They are usually within driving distance and are "cheap" fun
In hotel space, if you want to jump in MGM is a good bet as they are mostly gambling which, though shut down now, it's an addiction and companies like SBUX that sell addictions are always a good investment.

This is contrary to what I'm hearing. That a lot of deaths are undercounted because the victim wasn't diagnosed with CoViD-19... if you die in your home they aren't testing necessarily. What about ancillary deaths due to full ERs?

We may hit peak infection *rate*. That means new cases won't be increasing... but it does mean a steady stream of sick people jamming up hospitals which isn't good. And that's with lockdown. If you lift lockdown, you could accelerate cases again. In order for us to open things back up, we need a breakthrough on our understanding of the disease, or a treatment, or a vaccine. Otherwise it's lockdown for months and the economy won't fare well obviously.

This is why you have to tune OUT the daily negative drumbeat Taylor

Tax policy, fed policy, fiscal policy and trade policy all positive

“Don’t fight the Fed”

Big picture

But hey, another great day folks

FYI, it’s a “new bull market”

During the past 11 years of market gains 9 single days accounted for 80% of the total market gains

GL timing that.

Green chutes guys. Maybe we get a nice dip from here but it will be short lived opportunity

We can agree to disagree on that one

But I do agree that breakthroughs are coming after the slew of 24/7 negative news

Lot of bumps in the road still but place your bets accordingly

What’s the outlook for 2021? See the pillars I noted above

What’s up KPG?

It’s called “buy low”

Apple was in $230’s a few days ago now $267

TTD was $200 then $160 two days ago, buy low and now it’s back to $205. $330 45 days ago

Shopify same thing

I’ll accumulate stocks I want to own long term on dips

Day to day? Who knows.

Tell me where the new bottom is and I’ll be ready to deploy more KPG

Gl brother

The results of the market recently shows again I can't predict well whats going to happen. Accumulating strategy remains to hold (basically) forever and buy in regular intervals. When buying opportunities feels good buy more. If it feels bad buy less and pay down the mortgage faster. I do the robo investing. I just set that I want 90% stocks and let the computers pick the spread for me. Feels like its worth the minimal fee to let the robots pick stocks. I'd probably make some bonehead choices at the wrong times based on emotion.

Hey man you have the right idea long term. Dollar cost averaging, buy low etc.

As far as the "mortgage paydown", that's just a peace of mind issue because i'd rather buy a stock like EPD pipeline that yields 12% now, wait for the stock to recover and it will cycle back, pay my 3% mortgage and use the gains to pay down a bigger portion when the market rebounds.

There are any number of opportunities like that that should work out long term, no guarantees, Abbvie is yielding 6.25% and is $20 off its high. etc, etc, etc.

Bottom line, whatever anyone does here the day to day is impossible and GOOD LUCK to everybody!

The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.

And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

I'm having the same disconnect.

What is that telling you? The market is a forward looking voting machine. Think 2021.

You aren't seeing what others are seeing.

But i agree with KPG, i'm not buying today, did that 2 days ago, also not shorting it either.

But IF you believe it's gonna drop again then load up on the 3x inverse Bear ETF's.

Technically, we have just entered a NEW BULL MARKET. LOL

Yep, it doesn’t make sense.. this correction doesn’t even seem as bad as the January 2019 correction... some disconnect here for sure!

That's wrong technically, look it up

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/that-was-fast-stock-rally-propels-s-p-500-23-past-march-lows

See above, the technical definition. LOL

I don't make my decisions based on fear and greed.

I will use the next drop, when it comes to buy in again. And then count the pile happily by the 1st quarter of 2021

That's just how i roll! And i might throw a short term Vix play or TZA leverage in and out from time to time

The market was a forward looking voting machine when the Dow was at 30K. Judging from the market action, none of the pros saw that an 11K crash...ah...pullback was coming.

What has changed?

Everybody is too caviler. It is almost a buy the dip mentality. I don't see any Warren Buffet blood in the streets happening, yet.

It's called gambler's creed, I think... Stories galore on the wins, radio silence on the losses.

Well I Sold into cash at 25,000. I put 10% into the market with every end of day drop of 1000 points. So the day ends at 23,999 I add 10% to the market at 3:59pm. I also only do 10% if it crosses two barriers. At <20,000 I changed that strategy to 1,500 drops. At this point I am 40/60. My next 10% buy in will happen when the market looks like it will close <18,500.

That's my plan anyway. Not super sophisticated but I'm sticking to it. No idea what I'll do when the market zooms over 25,000 but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. In my opinion we are in some kind of psychological euphoria right now and the market still has a ton of downward potential.

I am also looking at 2021 for things to return to normal.

As long as there is 24/7 virus coverage, we are in a bear market
Only a fool is buying into the rally this week
FOMO is driving the market higher

Can't speak for iceman, but I've been underinvested in stocks for the whole bull market waiting for a chance to get in. I've been buying in larger and larger chunks on each big down day. Here's an example of VTI purchases in one of my IRAs. It's a small account I opened two years ago, so I'm going 100% total stock ETF in it. Other accounts are more balanced. They were nearly 100% cash and bonds for a long time, but I'm migrating them to more of a 75/25 stocks/bonds.

vti (resized).JPG