(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #3201 53 days ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    Seems like the market wants to take off like a rocket ship from here on the slightest bit of good news, but needs an atomic bomb to make it fall right now. I'm just trying to figure out who's right regarding the overall economy: It ranges from "full-blown depression" to happy days are here again in 3-4 months. It's hard to know what to do when respected people are so far apart in what they believe the future holds.

    This shit is rigged man.

    That's why I try to filter out the noise/current events/news most of the time, and just focus on the technical indicators on the charts. Charts are just a map of human psychology and how they react at different levels of price & market movements... and as they say, history repeats itself. Its the best market compass you can have IMO. Everything else is just a guess.

    #3202 53 days ago

    I'm curious if the people that liquidated their portfolios have started getting back in yet. Today was the bounce I was hoping for. It gave me a chance to reestablish covered calls for a good chunk of my positions. Now I have a little protection against another drop.

    #3203 53 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I'm curious if the people that liquidated their portfolios have started getting back in yet. Today was the bounce I was hoping for. It gave me a chance to reestablish covered calls for a good chunk of my positions. Now I have a little protection against another drop.

    Not yet. The market is still below where I liquidated. I think that we are going to bounce around a bit and still think we see some lows.

    #3204 53 days ago

    Think the market is overvalued considering world events but you can't fight the fed it seems.

    #3205 53 days ago

    I feel like I was just left standing at the station with a bag of cash in my hand.

    #3206 53 days ago
    Quoted from catboxer:

    I feel like I was just left standing at the station with a bag of cash in my hand.

    We will retest the lows.. be patient.

    #3207 53 days ago

    Great news, the virus is gone!! The economy is back!! Everything is awesome!!

    #3208 53 days ago

    I'm dumbfounded at the gains today? I started selling some stocks at a small profit thinking the market would come crashing back down this afternoon. Nope. I'm completely lost and 2nd guessing every move I make. Anyone else with me? Lmao

    #3209 53 days ago
    Quoted from DadofTwins:

    I'm dumbfounded at the gains today? I started selling some stocks at a small profit thinking the market would come crashing back down this afternoon. Nope. I'm completely lost and 2nd guessing every move I make. Anyone else with me? Lmao

    I am with you. I am no investing wizard and feel like I am trying to bet on which ball in a multi ball game will drain last. Sometimes I feel like they will all drain at the same time and I will still lose.

    #3210 53 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Finally looking like OXY has put in a nice base, in for the long haul today.. bought it for a swing trade
    STKS low volume but when that thing gets some interest, it has a low float.. it will explode

    I am trying to find something to to make a large purchase into and hold for 6-12 months. So, KPG, do you think OXY is a safe bet for the next 6-12 months with a decent return? Just curious!

    #3211 53 days ago

    Yea, it's great that the experienced people are making some money on it, but I'm too scared to throw my hat into the ring just yet.

    #3212 53 days ago
    Quoted from DadofTwins:

    I'm dumbfounded at the gains today? I started selling some stocks at a small profit thinking the market would come crashing back down this afternoon. Nope. I'm completely lost and 2nd guessing every move I make. Anyone else with me? Lmao

    I agree, I don't know what's going on. It's weird. All we got is that some minor thing that they think New York is slowing, and we're up a ton. Then you find out that New York isn't testing any of the people that didn't make it to the hospital in their count, and they think that's like 200 a day. The numbers are all just completely unreliable other than the fact that we have a huge problem...NONE of the numbers are accurate.

    I listened to a bunch of podcasts with people that I think have a good grip on what's going on financially, and not one of them thought that this was going to be over anytime soon. And Buffett's selling, not buying right now evidently.

    It just must be day trading swings.

    #3213 53 days ago

    Great positive day today. Tough to figure out right guys with all the doom and gloom? The news is going to get better all month, little by little, just like today.

    The numbers? Well, the models appear to be way overestimating the death toll of the virus and new cases are on the decline in many places around the world.

    It's a good sign that the bottom was hopefully put in at $18k already. Retest? Who knows, i'd love another chance to load up.

    The Vix has dropped significantly and small caps led the way back again today, another good sign.

    I'd love to see a few days of just sideways movement. LOL

    #3214 53 days ago

    Buffet sold the airlines and you don't know what he's buying because the 13-F isn't out yet.

    It's gonna be a long road back, if you are a long-term investor why worry?

    Or IF you are so confident in a retest then hit the TZA and HIBS 3x Bear leverage. Should make a killing!

    #3215 53 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    Great positive day today. Tough to figure out right guys with all the doom and gloom? The news is going to get better all month, little by little, just like today.
    The numbers? Well, the models appear to be way overestimating the death toll of the virus and new cases are on the decline in many places around the world.
    It's a good sign that the bottom was hopefully put in at $18k already. Retest? Who knows, i'd love another chance to load up.
    The Vix has dropped significantly and small caps led the way back again today, another good sign.
    I'd love to see a few days of just sideways movement. LOL

    The numbers for testing are still completely inaccurate. Like borderline ridiculous. So I live in Kansas, so low cases (like 845), you would think that testing would be pretty decent, right? I just found out that a local place just found out that someone had tested positive today...however, they were tested on MARCH 27TH!!!!

    Yeah, that's happening TODAY. Like that's how messed up it is still. And in Johnson County, the highest population county in the state, they won't test you unless you're very sick (like going into the hospital). Otherwise they just send you home to isolation without one.

    So how accurate do you think numbers are that are delayed 10 days, aren't testing anyone that isn't hospital bound, etc? Like it's way worse than is being reported here.

    I think we're rounding off possibly in some areas and still growing in others. But I don't see a clear path to return to work anytime soon around here, and we're one of the smallest totals in the nation. I think we can gradually get it down, but even here, one of the easiest spots in the nation, it will probably take 2 more months minimum. It looks like by the end of April we're going to be at a million cases for the nation (which really means 2 million since 50% are only spreaders that don't show symptoms, and we're not testing any of those)...I don't see how you get that from 2 million down to 0 in a month...or two months...or three months....

    I'm a long term investor, but frankly looking at it, I don't see the upside right now. Unemployment is currently estimated at 13%, and after Thursday that number is only going to get worse. So then count the number of Thursdays (which are all going to be bad) till you think this thing is going to subside, and that's the hole we're going to have to dig out of. A ridiculous number of homeowners and small businesses applied for the hardship help, like I don't think they have nearly enough money allocated for it.

    We need a viable treatment asap.

    #3216 53 days ago

    It's all simple really, the market needs to have a bounce and create a lower high before it tanks again.

    For now it will glide higher squeezing shorts and tricking moron retail investors that "long term I'm going to be rich"

    And when they find out their favorite stock will lose 50% again in the next couple of months before it goes up 50%, they'll sell in a panic on the next big drop to the smart money who saw that as a buying opportunity.

    Dow seems to be gravitating to that test of the 200d moving average where it may very well fail.. and fail violently.

    Markets don't move straight down then straight back up.

    Think of it like a rubber ball.

    What happened is someone dropped it from a 10 story high building, it hit the ground @ Dow 18,000 - bounced, and while it may appear to have the momentum of getting back to it's highs, the momentum is lost and it will make a lower high, rinse and repeat. That is how bear markets work. There's just some great trading opportunities if you can get close to timing trades. As you saw with oil prices the other day.

    Timing is key to everything in life.

    #3217 53 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    It's all simple really, the market needs to have a bounce and create a lower high before it tanks again.
    For now it will glide higher squeezing shorts and tricking moron retail investors that "long term I'm going to be rich"
    And when they find out their favorite stock will lose 50% again in the next couple of months before it goes up 50%, they'll sell in a panic on the next big drop to the smart money who saw that as a buying opportunity.
    Dow seems to be gravitating to that test of the 200d moving average where it may very well fail.. and fail violently.
    Markets don't move straight down then straight back up.
    Think of it like a rubber ball.
    What happened is someone dropped it from a 10 story high building, it hit the ground @ Dow 18,000 - bounced, and while it may appear to have the momentum of getting back to it's highs, the momentum is lost and it will make a lower high, rinse and repeat. That is how bear markets work. There's just some great trading opportunities if you can get close to timing trades. As you saw with oil prices the other day.
    Timing is key to everything in life.

    Makes sense,
    I have my eye on a handful of quality stock the FOMO on this upswing is killing me.
    I will stand strong and wait.
    Thanks for the encouraging words kgp.
    I Jumped in too early before and lost.

    #3218 53 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    It's all simple really, the market needs to have a bounce and create a lower high before it tanks again.
    For now it will glide higher squeezing shorts and tricking moron retail investors that "long term I'm going to be rich"
    And when they find out their favorite stock will lose 50% again in the next couple of months before it goes up 50%, they'll sell in a panic on the next big drop to the smart money who saw that as a buying opportunity.
    Dow seems to be gravitating to that test of the 200d moving average where it may very well fail.. and fail violently.
    Markets don't move straight down then straight back up.
    Think of it like a rubber ball.
    What happened is someone dropped it from a 10 story high building, it hit the ground @ Dow 18,000 - bounced, and while it may appear to have the momentum of getting back to it's highs, the momentum is lost and it will make a lower high, rinse and repeat. That is how bear markets work. There's just some great trading opportunities if you can get close to timing trades. As you saw with oil prices the other day.
    Timing is key to everything in life.

    I'm thinking some sideways action for a little while. It will be interesting to see if Prez pushes the April 30 date farther out.

    #3219 53 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I'm thinking some sideways action for a little while. It will be interesting to see if Prez pushes the April 30 date farther out.

    That is still three weeks away, and the dailies coming out of Europe are encouraging, although if the world acts like China has, the 2nd wave will hit hard. But by then, the pressure on the hospitals should lessen.

    #3220 53 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Timing is key to everything in life.

    And to a watch!

    #3221 53 days ago
    Quoted from usandthem:

    Seems like the market wants to take off like a rocket ship from here on the slightest bit of good news, but needs an atomic bomb to make it fall right now. I'm just trying to figure out who's right regarding the overall economy: It ranges from "full-blown depression" to happy days are here again in 3-4 months. It's hard to know what to do when respected people are so far apart in what they believe the future holds.

    the bigger they are they harder they fall

    #3222 53 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    It's all simple really, the market needs to have a bounce and create a lower high before it tanks again.
    For now it will glide higher squeezing shorts and tricking moron retail investors that "long term I'm going to be rich"
    And when they find out their favorite stock will lose 50% again in the next couple of months before it goes up 50%, they'll sell in a panic on the next big drop to the smart money who saw that as a buying opportunity.
    Dow seems to be gravitating to that test of the 200d moving average where it may very well fail.. and fail violently.
    Markets don't move straight down then straight back up.
    Think of it like a rubber ball.
    What happened is someone dropped it from a 10 story high building, it hit the ground @ Dow 18,000 - bounced, and while it may appear to have the momentum of getting back to it's highs, the momentum is lost and it will make a lower high, rinse and repeat. That is how bear markets work. There's just some great trading opportunities if you can get close to timing trades. As you saw with oil prices the other day.
    Timing is key to everything in life.

    I fall solidly in this corner.

    Jumped out on the way down at 22k. Jumped back in at 20k on the way up in the kids college fund and IRAs, jumped in Monday morning with the 401k. I have been burned 1 time in the stock market, and that was back in 2011-2012 betting against the market right before they unleashed "Quantitative easing". When the government starts throwing money around, in general, the market goes up. I think the bottom of the market will be in before the worst of the virus hits... which is coming in the next 30 days here in the USA (me thinks). I'm losing my butt on my speculative single stock plays, but am holding on to them for now. I bought Cracker Barrel at 99, it's at 84.88 after market (it briefly dipped down below 70). I bought Red Robin at 12, it's at 10.60 after hours. It was down below 7 last week but has surged 40% in the past 24 hours. I may keep Cracker Barrel long term, but with stocks fluctuating so much I think the restaraunt stocks are oversold. I will probably dump Red Robin in the next month. I am looking at cruise stocks right now, and think Carnival will not be hit as hard as the other cruise lines. It has been my experience that Carnival Cruisers are generally younger than those of the other lines (they are essentially party boats filled with younger people) and will not be hit as hard. There is a fire sale on them right now. Once I can pull a profit of RRGB (somewhere between 15 and 20 a share) I will probably bail on them and go long on Carnival. With the exception of Red Robin and Six Flags (which I pulled a 30% profit on in 24 hours) I am only buying stocks that I think will recover strongly over the next few years if they don't do well short term.

    Please note that I am no stock sage, and the vast majority of my retirement/kids college funds are in mutual funds run by professionals. I am throwing around some of my IRA in individual stocks that I can afford to lose, and believe the slow and steady is the way to win in the long run.

    #3223 53 days ago
    Quoted from sataneatscheese:

    I fall solidly in this corner.
    Jumped out on the way down at 22k. Jumped back in at 20k on the way up in the kids college fund and IRAs, jumped in Monday morning with the 401k. I have been burned 1 time in the stock market, and that was back in 2011-2012 betting against the market right before they unleashed "Quantitative easing". When the government starts throwing money around, in general, the market goes up. I think the bottom of the market will be in before the worst of the virus hits... which is coming in the next 30 days here in the USA (me thinks). I'm losing my butt on my speculative single stock plays, but am holding on to them for now. I bought Cracker Barrel at 99, it's at 84.88 after market (it briefly dipped down below 70). I bought Red Robin at 12, it's at 10.60 after hours. It was down below 7 last week but has surged 40% in the past 24 hours. I may keep Cracker Barrel long term, but with stocks fluctuating so much I think the restaraunt stocks are oversold. I will probably dump Red Robin in the next month. I am looking at cruise stocks right now, and think Carnival will not be hit as hard as the other cruise lines. It has been my experience that Carnival Cruisers are generally younger than those of the other lines (they are essentially party boats filled with younger people) and will not be hit as hard. There is a fire sale on them right now. Once I can pull a profit of RRGB (somewhere between 15 and 20 a share) I will probably bail on them and go long on Carnival. With the exception of Red Robin and Six Flags (which I pulled a 30% profit on in 24 hours) I am only buying stocks that I think will recover strongly over the next few years if they don't do well short term.
    Please note that I am no stock sage, and the vast majority of my retirement/kids college funds are in mutual funds run by professionals. I am throwing around some of my IRA in individual stocks that I can afford to lose, and believe the slow and steady is the way to win in the long run.

    Restaurants, Cruise Lines, Movies, Hotels are going to be difficult going forward.
    Even when the country opens up who is running out to a Red Robin on jumping on a cruise.
    I am itching to eat out, but not so sure I want to sit down in a restaurant so soon
    I speculated on Cruise lines and lost a "boat load" - I would not buy in with my worst enemies money - there are much safer bets out there.

    Six Flags is probably a good bet, the younger generation will flock to amusement parks this summer. They are usually within driving distance and are "cheap" fun
    In hotel space, if you want to jump in MGM is a good bet as they are mostly gambling which, though shut down now, it's an addiction and companies like SBUX that sell addictions are always a good investment.

    #3224 53 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    The numbers? Well, the models appear to be way overestimating the death toll of the virus

    This is contrary to what I'm hearing. That a lot of deaths are undercounted because the victim wasn't diagnosed with CoViD-19... if you die in your home they aren't testing necessarily. What about ancillary deaths due to full ERs?

    We may hit peak infection *rate*. That means new cases won't be increasing... but it does mean a steady stream of sick people jamming up hospitals which isn't good. And that's with lockdown. If you lift lockdown, you could accelerate cases again. In order for us to open things back up, we need a breakthrough on our understanding of the disease, or a treatment, or a vaccine. Otherwise it's lockdown for months and the economy won't fare well obviously.

    #3225 53 days ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    The numbers for testing are still completely inaccurate. Like borderline ridiculous. So I live in Kansas, so low cases (like 845), you would think that testing would be pretty decent, right? I just found out that a local place just found out that someone had tested positive today...however, they were tested on MARCH 27TH!!!!
    Yeah, that's happening TODAY. Like that's how messed up it is still. And in Johnson County, the highest population county in the state, they won't test you unless you're very sick (like going into the hospital). Otherwise they just send you home to isolation without one.
    So how accurate do you think numbers are that are delayed 10 days, aren't testing anyone that isn't hospital bound, etc? Like it's way worse than is being reported here.
    I think we're rounding off possibly in some areas and still growing in others. But I don't see a clear path to return to work anytime soon around here, and we're one of the smallest totals in the nation. I think we can gradually get it down, but even here, one of the easiest spots in the nation, it will probably take 2 more months minimum. It looks like by the end of April we're going to be at a million cases for the nation (which really means 2 million since 50% are only spreaders that don't show symptoms, and we're not testing any of those)...I don't see how you get that from 2 million down to 0 in a month...or two months...or three months....
    I'm a long term investor, but frankly looking at it, I don't see the upside right now. Unemployment is currently estimated at 13%, and after Thursday that number is only going to get worse. So then count the number of Thursdays (which are all going to be bad) till you think this thing is going to subside, and that's the hole we're going to have to dig out of. A ridiculous number of homeowners and small businesses applied for the hardship help, like I don't think they have nearly enough money allocated for it.
    We need a viable treatment asap.

    This is why you have to tune OUT the daily negative drumbeat Taylor

    Tax policy, fed policy, fiscal policy and trade policy all positive

    “Don’t fight the Fed”

    Big picture

    But hey, another great day folks

    FYI, it’s a “new bull market”

    During the past 11 years of market gains 9 single days accounted for 80% of the total market gains

    GL timing that.

    Green chutes guys. Maybe we get a nice dip from here but it will be short lived opportunity

    #3226 53 days ago

    Shorted NVDA at 269.5

    #3227 53 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    This is why you have to tune OUT the daily negative drumbeat Taylor
    Tax policy, fed policy, fiscal policy and trade policy all positive
    “Don’t fight the Fed”
    Big picture
    But hey, another great day folks
    FYI, it’s a “new bull market”
    During the past 11 years of market gains 9 single days accounted for 80% of the total market gains
    GL timing that.
    Green chutes guys. Maybe we get a nice dip from here but it will be short lived opportunity

    There you are Iceman!

    Hey, my advice, go all in today if you think that - right here at Dow major resistance that I've been waiting it to hit for weeks now, Dow 23.7K

    Let's see how those trades you buy today look in a month since you have it all figured out

    #3228 53 days ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    This is contrary to what I'm hearing. That a lot of deaths are undercounted because the victim wasn't diagnosed with CoViD-19... if you die in your home they aren't testing necessarily. What about ancillary deaths due to full ERs?
    We may hit peak infection *rate*. That means new cases won't be increasing... but it does mean a steady stream of sick people jamming up hospitals which isn't good. And that's with lockdown. If you lift lockdown, you could accelerate cases again. In order for us to open things back up, we need a breakthrough on our understanding of the disease, or a treatment, or a vaccine. Otherwise it's lockdown for months and the economy won't fare well obviously.

    We can agree to disagree on that one

    But I do agree that breakthroughs are coming after the slew of 24/7 negative news

    Lot of bumps in the road still but place your bets accordingly

    What’s the outlook for 2021? See the pillars I noted above

    #3229 53 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    There you are Iceman!
    Hey, my advice, go all in today if you think that - right here at Dow major resistance that I've been waiting it to hit for weeks now, Dow 23.7K
    Let's see how those trades you buy today look in a month since you have it all figured out

    What’s up KPG?

    It’s called “buy low”

    Apple was in $230’s a few days ago now $267

    TTD was $200 then $160 two days ago, buy low and now it’s back to $205. $330 45 days ago

    Shopify same thing

    I’ll accumulate stocks I want to own long term on dips

    Day to day? Who knows.

    Tell me where the new bottom is and I’ll be ready to deploy more KPG

    Gl brother

    #3230 52 days ago

    The results of the market recently shows again I can't predict well whats going to happen. Accumulating strategy remains to hold (basically) forever and buy in regular intervals. When buying opportunities feels good buy more. If it feels bad buy less and pay down the mortgage faster. I do the robo investing. I just set that I want 90% stocks and let the computers pick the spread for me. Feels like its worth the minimal fee to let the robots pick stocks. I'd probably make some bonehead choices at the wrong times based on emotion.

    #3231 52 days ago
    Quoted from barakandl:The results of the market recently shows again I can't predict well whats going to happen. Accumulating strategy remains to hold (basically) forever and buy in regular intervals. When buying opportunities feels good buy more. If it feels bad buy less and pay down the mortgage faster. I do the robo investing. I just set that I want 90% stocks and let the computers pick the spread for me. Feels like its worth the minimal fee to let the robots pick stocks. I'd probably make some bonehead choices at the wrong times based on emotion.

    Hey man you have the right idea long term. Dollar cost averaging, buy low etc.

    As far as the "mortgage paydown", that's just a peace of mind issue because i'd rather buy a stock like EPD pipeline that yields 12% now, wait for the stock to recover and it will cycle back, pay my 3% mortgage and use the gains to pay down a bigger portion when the market rebounds.

    There are any number of opportunities like that that should work out long term, no guarantees, Abbvie is yielding 6.25% and is $20 off its high. etc, etc, etc.

    Bottom line, whatever anyone does here the day to day is impossible and GOOD LUCK to everybody!

    #3232 52 days ago

    Sold all my longs from yesterday for nice gain today

    Still holding some STKS long term (sold half at $1.70 today)

    Bought VXX calls
    Sold DIA calls
    Sold AAPL calls

    Going short today, Dow major resistance target hit

    Good luck for you dip buyers... Lots of dips will be had to buy, just don't blow your load all in one dip, catching knives is dangerous

    #3233 52 days ago

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.

    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    #3234 52 days ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    I'm having the same disconnect.

    #3235 52 days ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    Down less than 20%

    As of today

    -1
    #3236 52 days ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    What is that telling you? The market is a forward looking voting machine. Think 2021.

    You aren't seeing what others are seeing.

    But i agree with KPG, i'm not buying today, did that 2 days ago, also not shorting it either.

    But IF you believe it's gonna drop again then load up on the 3x inverse Bear ETF's.

    Technically, we have just entered a NEW BULL MARKET. LOL

    #3237 52 days ago

    Consumer credit numbers coming out today at 3PM ET

    Anyone think tons of people running of their credit cards, drawing from equity lines, companies drawing on credit facilities, etc?

    That should shake things up a bit considering market is sitting at stiff resistance.

    Lots of optimistic retail traders buying today while big money writes calls that will be worthless on Thursday.

    Weekly options expire Thurs because of good Friday, and it's a big money maker to pump market, sell calls to optimists, then drive it lower and those calls expire worthless on Thursday.

    #3238 52 days ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    The entire world is pretty much on lockdown, destroying just about any industry that requires people meeting face to face. Movie Industry, Sports, Hotels, Airlines, Restaurants...all hard stop. People unable to pay rent, mortgages, car payments for the foreseeable future. A massive departure from life as we knew it.
    And where is the market? Down just less than 20%.

    Yep, it doesn’t make sense.. this correction doesn’t even seem as bad as the January 2019 correction... some disconnect here for sure!

    #3239 52 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    What is that telling you? The market is a forward looking voting machine. Think 2021.
    You aren't seeing what others are seeing.
    But i agree with KPG, i'm not buying today, did that 2 days ago, also not shorting it either.
    But IF you believe it's gonna drop again then load up on the 3x inverse Bear ETF's.
    Technically, we have just entered a NEW BULL MARKET. LOL

    We are still in a bear market. Nothing has changed, technical wise, and especially fundamentally.

    -1
    #3240 52 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    We are still in a bear market. Nothing has changed, technical wise, and especially fundamentally.

    That's wrong technically, look it up

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/that-was-fast-stock-rally-propels-s-p-500-23-past-march-lows

    #3241 52 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    That's wrong technically, look it up

    I did, and we're still under the 200d moving average, there's still a death cross on every index.

    It's crazy when the market goes up a couple days everyone thinks everything is fine and the world is great all of a sudden.

    It's all technically driven by greed, fear, and algos.

    Today is greed.

    Algos will kick in and help propel your fear next.

    #3242 52 days ago

    That article was written today.

    Market isn't closed yet

    #3243 52 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I did, and we're still under the 200d moving average, there's still a death cross on every index.
    It's crazy when the market goes up a couple days everyone thinks everything is fine and the world is great all of a sudden.
    It's all technically driven by greed, fear, and algos.
    Today is greed.
    Algos will kick in and help propel your fear next.

    See above, the technical definition. LOL

    I don't make my decisions based on fear and greed.

    I will use the next drop, when it comes to buy in again. And then count the pile happily by the 1st quarter of 2021

    That's just how i roll! And i might throw a short term Vix play or TZA leverage in and out from time to time

    #3244 52 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    What is that telling you? The market is a forward looking voting machine. Think 2021.
    You aren't seeing what others are seeing.

    The market was a forward looking voting machine when the Dow was at 30K. Judging from the market action, none of the pros saw that an 11K crash...ah...pullback was coming.

    What has changed?

    Everybody is too caviler. It is almost a buy the dip mentality. I don't see any Warren Buffet blood in the streets happening, yet.

    #3245 52 days ago
    Quoted from iceman44:

    See above, the technical definition. LOL
    I don't make my decisions based on fear and greed.
    I will use the next drop, when it comes to buy in again. And then count the pile happily by the 1st quarter of 2021
    That's just how i roll! And i might throw a short term Vix play or TZA leverage in and out from time to time

    Do you buy every dip? During the crash did you buy each day that dipped?

    I'd like to understand that strategy, how you allocate the appropriate funds to cost average down while not losing your balls in the process, and then when the market bounces, barely breaking even. I've just never seen or heard anyone explain mathematically how that works.

    Everyone can claim they bought on a "dip" then sold on days that were green, yet, no explanation of their incremental buys, cost averages, etc.

    If you were a dip buyer and have not sold in the last several years, then all those profits made over the last 3+ years are gone.

    Unless, you somehow timed the bottom of the market crash with precision and doubled down there.

    Once again, anyone I've asked how that strategy works has never been able to clearly show how that works.

    Conveniently, when the market crashes, those are the same people who said they sold back at the top and are all cash too.

    One thing about the stock market I've learned.. it's most people are not transparent.

    Not calling you out Iceman, but it's just I've literally heard everything you are saying by so many people over the years.

    We all know the market will continue to go up throughout the the next decade, but timing is key...you buy at the wrong time during a crash and it could take years to make a profit if you don't know when to sell.

    #3246 52 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Do you buy every dip? During the crash did you buy each day that dipped?
    I'd like to understand that strategy, how you allocate the appropriate funds to cost average down while not losing your balls in the process, and then when the market bounces, barely breaking even. I've just never seen or heard anyone explain mathematically how that works.
    Everyone can claim they bought on a "dip" then sold on days that were green, yet, no explanation of their incremental buys, cost averages, etc.
    If you were a dip buyer and have not sold in the last several years, then all those profits made over the last 3+ years are gone.
    Unless, you somehow timed the bottom of the market crash with precision and doubled down there.
    Once again, anyone I've asked how that strategy works has never been able to clearly show how that works.
    Conveniently, when the market crashes, those are the same people who said they sold back at the top and are all cash too.
    One thing about the stock market I've learned.. it's most people are not transparent.
    Not calling you out Iceman, but it's just I've literally heard everything you are saying by so many people over the years.
    We all know the market will continue to go up throughout the the next decade, but timing is key...you buy at the wrong time during a crash and it could take years to make a profit if you don't know when to sell.

    It's called gambler's creed, I think... Stories galore on the wins, radio silence on the losses.

    #3247 52 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Everyone can claim they bought on a "dip" then sold on days that were green, yet, no explanation of their incremental buys, cost averages, etc.

    Well I Sold into cash at 25,000. I put 10% into the market with every end of day drop of 1000 points. So the day ends at 23,999 I add 10% to the market at 3:59pm. I also only do 10% if it crosses two barriers. At <20,000 I changed that strategy to 1,500 drops. At this point I am 40/60. My next 10% buy in will happen when the market looks like it will close <18,500.

    That's my plan anyway. Not super sophisticated but I'm sticking to it. No idea what I'll do when the market zooms over 25,000 but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. In my opinion we are in some kind of psychological euphoria right now and the market still has a ton of downward potential.

    I am also looking at 2021 for things to return to normal.

    #3248 52 days ago

    As long as there is 24/7 virus coverage, we are in a bear market
    Only a fool is buying into the rally this week
    FOMO is driving the market higher

    #3249 52 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Do you buy every dip? During the crash did you buy each day that dipped?

    Can't speak for iceman, but I've been underinvested in stocks for the whole bull market waiting for a chance to get in. I've been buying in larger and larger chunks on each big down day. Here's an example of VTI purchases in one of my IRAs. It's a small account I opened two years ago, so I'm going 100% total stock ETF in it. Other accounts are more balanced. They were nearly 100% cash and bonds for a long time, but I'm migrating them to more of a 75/25 stocks/bonds.

    vti (resized).JPG
    #3250 52 days ago

    If wanting to do incremental buys, you really need to see when its best to start those buys though that's the point. Knowing when the indicators say its an oversold condition. On VTI, it entered my technical area I consider oversold on March 23rd right at $114-116/share. I believe that was right around the day I posted I was buying tons of stocks for a huge bounce.

    I feel the opposite today lol

    As for your incremental buys you started at the top and caught a knife and weathered a ton of pain and money to get your average to what appears may be breakeven right now.

    If the market turns against you, all of those buys above $135 will now be underwater, which it looks like the majority of your holdings are above $135.

    The March 23rd buy was great, as most people felt so much pain that day and panic sold everything.. so good job on that one for sure. I'd probably be selling half if it was me, and buying the other half back when the market gets kicked in the nuts again, but thats me

    All I know is when we get some great selling pressure to the downside again and retests the Dow 19Ks, thats where I begin my incremental buys for long holds. Because theres a great chance thats where the bottom gets formed.

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