Perhaps you did not see my link about oil storage.

Ask yourself this: If no one is driving, or flying, and the fuel is not being burned, and the producers are still pumping, what is a barrel of crude worth if the SPR is full, the refineries are full, all the ships are full, and there is no place else to hide a barrel of crude.

If the farmers have a bumper wheat crop and the elevators are full, wheat can find instant storage on the ground. That will not work for oil.

If you are in the oil storage business and your tanks are full, how much would you be willing pay for a barrel of crude you have no room for?

While that is true for 'today' mine was merely a question, and hopeful optimism.

At $20BBL according to the article, IF we see $55BBL next year that would be a helluva return on investment? I know if I had funding, I'd be buying oil futures.

"Of course, the weak demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic won't last forever.
Eventually, airlines will take to the air again and start buying jet fuel. American drivers will buy more gasoline as they get back to work.
But by that point the oil industry might not be producing as much oil as before because wells shut down. Today's oil glut may suddenly turn into tomorrow's oil scarcity, pushing prices "far above" $55 next year, Goldman Sachs commodities head Jeffrey Currie said." As I asked IF we can believe the government run China news agencies, they tout they are beginning to show life?

I know the producers around here like $60BBL, so if this funk lasts only a year, we will be doing OK. It used to be $100 but beginning in 2011 we saw new operating schemes that drove that comfort level down to $60. They WILL find the next sweet spot and be able to make money. Tesla hasn't taken over the world yet.
But I'd be buying his stock too!

The two of you asked how low can oil go and not much farther I hope. I was just offering what I saw and asked the question about if there was no storage. If there is absolutely no storage, the producers will have to shut down. The high debt shale guys are in trouble. With Saudi Arabia in control, who knows.

Sure. Eventually this will all work out. But it will be a changed world. If the possibility is 100K people die in US, average 2,000 people per state, the real question is who will still be around?

If you could get oil futures on rock bottom, at a price that will let you not worry about margin calls, that would be a hell of a buy. Trouble is no one knows where the bottom will be. Way way waaaay back, crude backed of to something like $8.00 per barrel.

I'd say exactly 100k less than the population of the US. Plenty.

Looks like dividends are starting to get cut.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/investing/dividends-coronavirus-recession/index.html

Really good article from Cramer. You can read it for yourself, but thinks that the best time to buy is when we retest our lows. Does not think that investors had factored in the potential mortality rate here in the US.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/jim-cramer-wall-street-to-retest-lows-after-rude-awakening-on-coronavirus.html

Futures of any kind, in particular oil futures seem an extraordinarily risky bet right now.

I wouldn’t expect Russia or the Saudis to let up until they have broken the backs of US shale oil.

And how many people do you think are going to be willing to jump on a plane or take a cruise once we’re on the other side of this? Once corporate America realizes most of its business can be done virtually, you really think they’re going back to flying people all over the place? Just like all those corporate middle management jobs came back after 2008?

Oil, travel, airlines, cruise lines, those aren’t coming back fast.

Still holding cash. I don’t think we’re near the bottom yet.

This is really weird timing. My company had no issues with remote workers, I've been working remotely for 7 years. Then last year new management decided they didn't like everyone working remotely. They've been planning a massive 'call everyone back into the office' and relocate everyone into specific cities because they want people to be face to face. Due to current events, now everyone is working remotely who possibly can (temporarily). Might seem selfish but I'm hoping this makes them reconsider their plans.

Yep, I think this is a very astute observation and totally agree. People are realizing how much money can be saved with no traveling. I think virtual really takes over moving forward. Same with business lunches and restaurant dinners, think how much money people are saving eating microwaveable lunches and home dinners...I don’t see dining recovering quickly.

People are getting accustomed to not spending money, getting that trend changed could be problematic.

I read an article about one of the cruise lines today. They have offered refunds to customers and something like 45% of the customers took credit instead of a refund.

I am leaning towards a lot of humans having a short memory span. Cruise lines and airlines will have some great deals this summer and I believe a lot of people with take those deals. Those with credit with those businesses will be using that credit before it expires. And millennials will take advantage of the cheap fairs.

Now, I am not saying everything will go back to last years levels. But I believe they will have a bunch of people take those deals. Their stocks will recover decently from where they are today.

That’s my prediction!

Enterprise technology sales guy weighing in. I am one of the people that you are describing. In my profession, most of the sales staff moved remote about 10-15 years ago due to cost savings. There is no need to pay for facilities for us when we should be out with our customers. I have been using Zoom for 5 years now and it is great for introductory meetings and tech exchanges with existing clients. However, at a certain point, you have to meet F2F with clients to help seal the deal and to implement technology. Right now, my tech teams are working with clients to deliver services remotely and it is hit and miss. I cover the US government, so some clients can do things remotely but others can not. The System Integrators that support my clients have by and large shifted to remote work, so I can continue to do my job. I am glad to have had a strong pipeline of deals that are deemed critical but when I look at out quarters, the lack of F2F is stifling efforts.

As I have been working mostly remote for the last 20 years, I made sure to setup my home office appropriately. In the new house, I took over what had been a dining room so I have plenty of space. I have dedicated CAT 6 drops, a standing desk with dual monitors, a separate wall mounted TV that I can use for VTC purposes, and all of the office equipment you would expect in an office. It was weird when I would go into my previous company's office once or twice a week for meetings that I had a better setup to do my job of calling clients, prospecting, etc at home then I did in the office. Like I said, it was setup for the technical folks, not the sales team.

Just a little insight about somebody saying something about business meals. In my profession, it is hard to take out clients to these types of events due to restrictions. The majority of my business meals are with business partners with whom I am trying to partner with. I don't see that part going away.

Costco has been nuts in the KC area. However, compared to other options, their pickup and delivery options are severely lacking (i.e. non existent). As a result, can't buy anything from there as I don't want to go inside the zoo. So just buying stuff from Walmart and grocers who deliver in the area. That would be my one hesitation with Costco. Great brand, ran very well, but they also have a little bit of this "my way or the highway" attitude with the way they run things and don't seem very quick to change things. Like they're really behind everyone else with pickup and delivery, and their online order system is kind of a disaster (they lost my wife's laptop ordered on Black Friday, then didn't want to give a refund right away because they couldn't find it, etc). They seem behind the other retailers in terms of technology.

I guess my question is, why Costco over say like Walmart? Walmart has a much a lower PE and double the dividend, and frankly over the past year or two Walmart has really stepped up their game with their grocery pickup...it's all we use now. I'm not sure I see Costco changing with the times very quickly.

Companies are weird with remote work. Even with all their employees remote, they still refuse to believe in it. I love it. I've been wanting to be remote for several years now and was denied (which is ironic because we have branch offices where we work daily with people I've never met, they could be on a beach and I'd never know). Finally getting to do it for an extended basis here and it's awesome. I'm actually getting more done than normal. Generally the problem is that it will get approved up the line in a company, but at some place in the chain someone will reject it without any basis or factual backing, generally with the reasoning "it's bad" or "that's not the way we do things here". There's a real lack of trust at some of these companies, and there's all kinds of double standards that go on. I initially thought it might get them to relax on it some, but I haven't seen any evidence yet that employers have changed. I get contacted about jobs all the time (even now) since I'm a programmer, and now they all say "temp remote", lol. Even Facebook contacted me this week, said they had positions in Seattle, San Fran, New York but no remote...if a company like Facebook is unwilling to do remote, are any others really going to do it permanently? I seriously question the financial acumen of some of these companies...I'm worth like twice as much where they want me to move. Why pay me twice as much just for me to be onsite? It doesn't make any sense.

Also hilarious about this, a lot of these companies will outsource work to India or China to save 50%...however, they could do the same thing to the midwest, but none of these companies want to setup an office here or have you work remote, they just want you to move, lol. KC has no branches for google, apple, amazon, facebook, or nvidia...kind of ridiculous honestly. They all complain about not being able to find good talent but in my opinion they're not even trying. SpaceX just wanted me to move out there too. I honestly don't get it. I don't think companies have sat down and done calculations on how much it costs to house an employee onsite vs letting them be remote...the amount of money companies could save in some instances would be astounding.

I have worked for several IT companies in the last few years. All of them were getting rid of office space and encouraging employees to go remote. Even encouraging BYOD. They all had a lot of employees that can work from home and teleconference. Less overhead and even less on IT shifting it to the employee. We currently have programmers supporting our work. And they all work from home and different cities on the same projects. They use slack to communicate.

It hasn't caught on in the KC area for some reason. None of the big employers in the area offer it except Sprint. Most of them have several large extra buildings that they had to buy just for employees. That's why I'm surprised none of the big tech companies have tried getting remote people from the midwest...there's no competition out here. The average Facebook employee makes more than every single programmer in the KC area does (barring a couple rare exceptions).

I would guess that over the past year, I have been contacted for probably 500 to 600 jobs. Number of them remote? 1. ONE!!! Almost every single one of them was on the coasts.

That’s just a smart business move that capitalizes on human psychology. I suspect that like gift certificates, a lot of these credits will expire unused.

We haven’t yet seen the flood of “cruise ship of death” docudramas that are surely being written and pitched in Hollywood. Look for them in 2021, once filming resumes. These are going to murder the cruise industry.

And here’s some purely anecdotal support: my in-laws are life-long cruisers. They have maximum status with Holland America Line. They’ll never take a cruise again. A lot of the cruise line’s customers are people in the highly lethal demographic. I myself have taken several cruises including two month-long voyages. Since Covid? Never again.

It depends on what type of an employee/job description with regards to working at home. Personally, I hate it and would never do it, nor do I like employees to do it. If I had a sales team, that might be different and probably would want them to work from home, but their results can be measured easily.

If it was a service type industry or project management, for all I know they could just be on Pinside all day.

It definitely isn't for everyone. Some people need the socialization. Some people have too many distractions, etc. For some, work at home means no daycare, so they are dealing with their kids all day. Took awhile to train my wife that I was not her errand boy during the day.

I agree about short memories, but the virus is going to be with us in some version for a long time until have an effective vaccine. It's not going to 100% disappear - so it's not going to take much to remind people that going on a cruise where everyone is eating at the same buffet is a risk. It can easily reignite on a cruise this summer from a single carrier. I love cruises, and have been on a lot with the family - but I am not buying in again so soon.

If they are dealing with their kids all day, how can they be productive?

I could never do it personally for various reasons. However, I have found the productivity for the general employee decreases exponentially when they work from home. Again - these are not sales or project manager positions. Plus it seems that the level of education also is an indicator for success.

Yea, I wasn't saying "that's what happens". I was using those as examples of why some people can't/shouldn't do it(although I've seen those examples which is why I know it happens, and they weren't great employees). That being said, I would disagree that a generalization of less productivity happens, but it really would depend on what the work actually is and who's doing it. My job is technical and requires number crunching and abstract thinking, I actually find working in the office to be too much of a distraction.

Carnival is trading at a 24 year low now.

All you talk about working remotely. The future state of the airline industry might make it so it will be easier for companies to make the decision to go remote.

Boeing is offering buyouts. Expects a long time for the aviation to recover. There will be less flights, less seats, and higher ticket prices.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/business/boeing-buyouts-layoffs/index.html

" When the world emerges from the pandemic, the size of the commercial market and the types of products and services our customers want and need will likely be different," he wrote. "We will need to balance the supply and demand accordingly as the industry goes through the recovery process for years to come. It's important we start adjusting to our new reality now."
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The Great Recession did not affect Boeing production in Wichita. As I recall, Boeing Seattle was still cranking out the heavy jets. People with money did not stop flying. They still went on their vacations, etc.

I worked general aviation building business jets. We got hammered. So many were laid off then.

When Ford, GM and Chrysler went to Washington to beg for money, I was home watching, and when the congressmen starting asking those 3 CEOs why they could not have jet pooled to Washington, I knew it was game over. At that time, Ford had 17 business jets in its private fleet that was eventually taken down to 5 jets in the fleet. Ford as not the only company to do this. There were a lot of lightly used biz jets for sale for a long time.
Two of the jets I worked on ceased production, never to return.

This time around, the people with money will, in all probability, give up the airlines and fly private jets. So, Covid-19, in some perverted way could drive the private jet industry, and possibly general aviation, as well.

That would be Textron (TXT) which owns both Beechcraft and Cessna, and Canadian Bombardier with the Learjet.

TXT has an interesting looking chart. TXT also owns Bell Helicopter. I need to study the company. I do not know its finances.

So, what happened? Did Saudi Arabia and Russia kiss and make up?

That’s kind of the point I’m making...with Walmart I just save my shopping list, stop by the store on my way home, they put the groceries in my trunk and I leave without ever setting foot in the store. Way cheaper than other grocery stores and way easier. You never have to set foot in a Walmart again.

After cooking every dinner the past 3 weeks and the foreseeable future, when we come out on the other end of this I am going out and making it rain.

Got damn could I go for some good bar wings.

I've never been in a Costco. As far as I know, no member of my extended family has ever been in a Costco. Looking at their store locator, it looks like the closest one to SW Missouri is over 2 hours away. However I've gone to Walmart once a week almost every week for the last 25 years. I grew up within an hour of Walmart's corporate office. Walmart is just part of the culture of my generation in this part of the country.

Bought stz when it was down 14 dollars today. It reports out tomorrow. Making good on it right now

I just wanted to say, that as someone who has never purchased stocks, but has always been interested in eventually getting into it, this seems like a very exciting time. It's been fun to follow along with this thread. For all you seasoned stock traders, can you recommend certain ones/types to watch? Or is that like asking a poker player to show his hand? lol I don't think its quite time for me to buy in yet (I was originally thinking several months from now) but I could easily be wrong.

this could have something to do with it.
Some of these lines could go bankrupt?

Generally speaking, for investing, less excitement is preferable. For the traders, speculators, and gamblers, excitement can be an adrenaline rush, sometimes profitable. And some times not.

Found the reason for the oil spike.

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-040220/index.html

" The oil market is going wild after President Donald Trump suggested Saudi Arabia and Russia could reach a truce that would slash production by 10 million barrels per day.

US crude skyrocketed as much as 35% to $27.39 a barrel Thursday morning after Trump's tweet.

"I expect & hope that they will be cutting back approximately 10 Million Barrels, and maybe substantially more which, if it happens, will be GREAT for the oil & gas industry!" Trump tweeted.

"However, it's weak demand -- not excess supply -- that's the primary cause of the oil crash.
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Same link as above.

" Saudi Arabia is calling for an "urgent" meeting meeting between OPEC and other nations in hopes of reaching a production cut deal that could aid the battered oil market.

The Saudi Press Agency said in a tweet Thursday morning that the kingdom is seeking a meeting for OPEC+ states "and another group of countries" in an attempt to try to reach a "fair solution to restore a desire balance of the oil markets."
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And here, somebody is lying and someone is telling the truth. It would be interesting to know who.

"Just spoke to my friend MBS (Crown Prince) of Saudi Arabia, who spoke with President Putin of Russia," Trump said in the tweet.

However, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russia's president, told Russian state media there was no such conversation between Putin and MBS.

I don't doubt it. I'm staying clear of those companies. Just making a comment about how much the stock turned into a raging dumpster fire.

True dat....”short memory spans”.

Example: seems like the toilet paper jokes and concerns were years ago. And that was two weeks.

Yeah, airliners you can argue for a bailout. But pleasure cruise ships? Hard to argue for a bailout for them.

STKS approaching $1.00

I'm thinking about it.

Just curious, why? They have no immediate prospects and for the last 5 years have traded mostly between 2 and a half and 4 bucks. Unless you are going to buy 50-100K of this stock and day trade it this seems like a dog.

Anyone else waiting to jump in on Boeing (BA)? Feels like the timing is almost right.

Funny, my kid (he is 20) sold some things and picked some BA up today. At his age he is in for the long game anyway.

I'm more just keeping an eye on it. I added some of the restaurants that were suggested in this thread to my watchlist, STKS being one of them. Just looks like it will get back to 1.50 to me at some point. 50% return isn't too bad. But you're right, you would have to buy a shit load of it for it to be worthwhile.

Seems fair. Only restaurant I have on my list is MCD. I saw on CNBC today that somebody (edit: Jim Chanos) was negative on Dunkin, Wendys, and a few others. Take it with a grain of salt as he is a pretty big short seller.

I am thinking of buying 100 shares BA here in my retirement account, i believe they will come out ok of this but it will take time.