High Roller Casino
Stern, 2001Quoted from pinballjah:Would someone be able to explain this option transaction. What does the '100' represent and the 'W27'? AAPL traded between $247 and $255 on Friday. Thanks for the help.[quoted image]
I cant explain the transaction but I believe the 100 represents the number of options per contract and the 27 is the date, not sure what the W means.
Quoted from pinballjah:Would someone be able to explain this option transaction. What does the '100' represent and the 'W27'? AAPL traded between $247 and $255 on Friday. Thanks for the help.[quoted image]
I'm guessing these are weekly options (the "W") expiring 3/27/20. The 100 is one contract (100 shares). I don't do spreads and other more complex strategies, just buying and selling puts and calls.
Quoted from pinballjah:Would someone be able to explain this option transaction. What does the '100' represent and the 'W27'? AAPL traded between $247 and $255 on Friday. Thanks for the help.[quoted image]
100 represents how many options come in each contract, so 10 contracts = 1000 options, so if the contract is $.20, then each one costs $200 (or a credit to you for $200 if sold)
The W indicates it's a Weekly option, and it expired March 27th
Quoted from kpg:100 represents how many options come in each contract, so 10 contracts = 1000 options, so if the contract is $.20, then each one costs $200 (or a credit to you for $200 if sold)
The W indicates it's a Weekly option, and it expired March 27th
Does your broker allow you to set up the spread trade in one transaction? Or are you having to leg in?
Quoted from thedarkknight77:So what does Monday look like traders?
Lock limit down on futures open Sunday evening
Quoted from ptrav1:Lock limit down on futures open Sunday evening
Yikes! I bought in Friday! Lol
Quoted from kpg:100 represents how many options come in each contract, so 10 contracts = 1000 options, so if the contract is $.20, then each one costs $200 (or a credit to you for $200 if sold)
The W indicates it's a Weekly option, and it expired March 27th
Ok, so you really haven’t provided any real details on the spreads you are doing. Call you are buying, call you are selling. Are these trades just OUTM calls expiring on the same day? You are just selling the calls and hoping they expire the same day worthless? Strategy would work great until one of them blows up. Thanks.
Virus is spreading , New York looks bad. I don’t think the market priced in what’s coming
Time to buy groceries not stocks
Quoted from ptrav1:Lock limit down on futures open Sunday evening
This means your betting on the market going down?
I've been fooling around with banks the last 7-8 trading days, pulled out and have cash on the side but couldn't resist the action on Friday and bought marijuana shares... Aurora Cannabis ACB. I also noticed a little segment on CNBC about weed stocks, anyone have opinions on this young industry ?
Quoted from marlboroman:I've been fooling around with banks the last 7-8 trading days, pulled out and have cash on the side but couldn't resist the action on Friday and bought marijuana shares... Aurora Cannabis ACB. I also noticed a little segment on CNBC about weed stocks, anyone have opinions on this young industry ?
CNBC said the Weed stock rally was caused by people in US and Canada stockpiling weed for self quarantining.
There’s absolutely no good news this weekend. Some stocks will continue to rise, but I don’t see how we’ll see an overall rally on Monday.
Took advantage of KPG's reference to STKS - thanks for the tip!
Thoughts on Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)? Fell from $51 to almost a 52 week low of $16. Can't make their April rent, but the odds of failure long term seems low.
Quoted from AstonEnthusiast:Took advantage of KPG's reference to STKS - thanks for the tip!
Thoughts on Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)? Fell from $51 to almost a 52 week low of $16. Can't make their April rent, but the odds of failure long term seems low.
Cheesecake Factory and Red Robin are on the predicted 2020-21 chopping block, even before this.
Quoted from AstonEnthusiast:Took advantage of KPG's reference to STKS - thanks for the tip!
Thoughts on Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)? Fell from $51 to almost a 52 week low of $16. Can't make their April rent, but the odds of failure long term seems low.
I like cracker barrel and.red robbin more but am currently losing my butt on them.
Quoted from Redeyes:This means your betting on the market going down?
It means the futures market has already gone down as far as it is allowed to go down. Once limit up or limit down has been reached, to more trading is allowed until some time passes. If you had bet on the market to go up you are now crying the blues and if you had bet for the market to go down you are dancing in the streets.
Quoted from cottonm4:It means the futures market has already gone down as far as it is allowed to go down. Once limit up or limit down has been reached, to more trading is allowed until some time passes. If you had bet on the market to go up you are now crying the blues and if you had bet for the market to go down you are dancing in the streets.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-index-futures-trigger-limit-down-rule-heres-how-limit-rules-and-stock-market-circuit-breakers-work-2020-03-16
That's not quite right. Limit up or limit down is the max they can trade in that direction, but they don't pause (the futures market. The cash market pauses during normal trading hours), they can reverse at any time. One night last week, I think Sunday night (and Monday morning) they hit limit down within minutes of opening. Then they spent several hours recovering 1-3% of their losses, then going back down to limit down over and over.
Quoted from AstonEnthusiast:Took advantage of KPG's reference to STKS - thanks for the tip!
Thoughts on Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)? Fell from $51 to almost a 52 week low of $16. Can't make their April rent, but the odds of failure long term seems low.
Best time to sell hospitality stocks was when they spiked up 40-70% in 3 sessions last week, now I'm out and letting them come back down and settle. Really I'd love to see Dow 19K again or even 18K before going big on the long side again.
I'll be back in STKS if it can come down a bit ! It went up so much last week so dumped it. Great long term so I hope it can tank again haha
Quoted from pinballjah:Ok, so you really haven’t provided any real details on the spreads you are doing. Call you are buying, call you are selling. Are these trades just OUTM calls expiring on the same day? You are just selling the calls and hoping they expire the same day worthless? Strategy would work great until one of them blows up. Thanks.
Like I said in my initial post there's so many variables it's crazy. So much.
But I did mention I'm selling Vertical Call spreads, as well as selling Vertical Put spreads
So by default, there's two legs executed at the same time, example, with AAPL last week:
When it tanked on the open I sold:
Vertical Put Spread on Weekly March 27 expiration
Sold the $235 Out of the money Puts for $0.37
Bought the $225 Out of the money Puts for $0.09
Net credit back to my account of $0.28
I sold 100 contracts of that spread and others that day. That means I risked $100,000 to make $2,800.
Now that's where people say holy hell! That's crazy! So dumb. And they are right . Why? Because they don't know how it works and it would be dumb if you don't know what your doing.
But my risk to lose that trade was for AAPL to collapse under $235/share by end of the trading day. If anyone knows AAPL, that would be a huge fall from it's low of the day which was around $248 or so when I sold those puts.
It was worth me putting up the capital to bet against AAPL closing over $235, which it did.
So then it went from $248 where I sold the vertical put spread and collected a nice premium due to a spike in Implied Volatility, then when it ripped back to $252 and $254 I did the opposite and sold 50 contracts of Weekly March 27 $270/275 strikes but CALLS instead of Puts. Sold the $270s and bought the $275s... Credit of $0.22 to me. If anyone has heard of an Iron Condor spread strategy I guess it's somewhat similar, but normal Iron Condors suck.. this is just a more optimized way of doing one.
All expired worthless so I keep the credit.
Yes you need a relatively large account to make decent money
Yes I could have lost in order to make $5875 on those trades Friday:
$136,000
BUT
Keep in mind. AAPL would have either had to close under $235 or over $270
Also, had I seen something to see id be wrong I'd close them out quickly to minimize my loss, usually when it's 50% of what I'm expecting to make. If I'm in the red $2500 already, I'm out. Period.
Both of which seemed impossible to me given the market resistance levels I've shown here on the charts I've posted.
A lot goes into it. It's not for the faint of heart and I don't recommend anyone doing this style of trading unless you know what you're doing. It's a style large hedge funds and firms use, but just at a smaller level.
Quoted from kpg:Like I said in my initial post there's so many variables it's crazy. So much.
But I did mention I'm selling Vertical Call spreads, as well as selling Vertical Put spreads
So by default, there's two legs executed at the same time, example, with AAPL last week:
When it tanked on the open I sold:
Vertical Put Spread on Weekly March 27 expiration
Sold the $235 Out of the money Puts for $0.37
Bought the $225 Out of the money Puts for $0.09
Net credit back to my account of $0.28
I sold 100 contracts of that spread and others that day. That means I risked $100,000 to make $2,800.
Now that's where people say holy hell! That's crazy! So dumb. And they are right . Why? Because they don't know how it works and it would be dumb if you don't know what your doing.
But my risk to lose that trade was for AAPL to collapse under $235/share by end of the trading day. If anyone knows AAPL, that would be a huge fall from it's low of the day which was around $248 or so when I sold those puts.
It was worth me putting up the capital to bet against AAPL closing over $235, which it did.
So then it went from $248 where I sold the vertical put spread and collected a nice premium due to a spike in Implied Volatility, then when it ripped back to $252 and $254 I did the opposite and sold 50 contracts of Weekly March 27 $270/275 strikes but CALLS instead of Puts. Sold the $270s and bought the $275s... Credit of $0.22 to me. If anyone has heard of an Iron Condor spread strategy I guess it's somewhat similar, but normal Iron Condors suck.. this is just a more optimized way of doing one.
All expired worthless so I keep the credit.
Yes you need a relatively large account to make decent money
Yes I could have lost in order to make $5875 on those trades Friday:
$136,000
BUT
Keep in mind. AAPL would have either had to close under $235 or over $270
Also, had I seen something to see id be wrong I'd close them out quickly to minimize my loss, usually when it's 50% of what I'm expecting to make. If I'm in the red $2500 already, I'm out. Period.
Both of which seemed impossible to me given the market resistance levels I've shown here on the charts I've posted.
A lot goes into it. It's not for the faint of heart and I don't recommend anyone doing this style of trading unless you know what you're doing. It's a style large hedge funds and firms use, but just at a smaller level.
Damn! 
Also,
I was doing some more research on ARCO and I'll be selling all of it on Monday no matter the price.
The company is strong fundamentally, the long term chart isn't as solid as I'd like and the more I think about it, the more I think if there's any rise in Coronavirus cases in Latin America or the Caribbean it could be significantly impacted. So I'd suggest if you're in it, sell it if you can get a little pop hopefully. Not to mention the market could get uglier next week as well.. I'll look to re-enter it when this is all over with.
This sounds to me like when James Bond walked up to the craps table in Diamonds are Forever...
Bond: I'll take the full odds on the ten, two hundred on the hard way, the limit on all the numbers, two hundred and fifty on the eleven. Thank you very much.
Plenty O'Toole: Say, you played this game before.
Bond: Just once.
hqdefault (resized).jpgKPG I am great full for your post and impressed with your strategy.
Your trades are wicked cool and your explanations prove you have experience teaching investors. Thank you
Quoted from kpg:Like I said in my initial post there's so many variables it's crazy. So much.
But I did mention I'm selling Vertical Call spreads, as well as selling Vertical Put spreads
So by default, there's two legs executed at the same time, example, with AAPL last week:
When it tanked on the open I sold:
Vertical Put Spread on Weekly March 27 expiration
Sold the $235 Out of the money Puts for $0.37
Bought the $225 Out of the money Puts for $0.09
Net credit back to my account of $0.28
I sold 100 contracts of that spread and others that day. That means I risked $100,000 to make $2,800.
Now that's where people say holy hell! That's crazy! So dumb. And they are right . Why? Because they don't know how it works and it would be dumb if you don't know what your doing.
But my risk to lose that trade was for AAPL to collapse under $235/share by end of the trading day. If anyone knows AAPL, that would be a huge fall from it's low of the day which was around $248 or so when I sold those puts.
It was worth me putting up the capital to bet against AAPL closing over $235, which it did.
So then it went from $248 where I sold the vertical put spread and collected a nice premium due to a spike in Implied Volatility, then when it ripped back to $252 and $254 I did the opposite and sold 50 contracts of Weekly March 27 $270/275 strikes but CALLS instead of Puts. Sold the $270s and bought the $275s... Credit of $0.22 to me. If anyone has heard of an Iron Condor spread strategy I guess it's somewhat similar, but normal Iron Condors suck.. this is just a more optimized way of doing one.
All expired worthless so I keep the credit.
Yes you need a relatively large account to make decent money
Yes I could have lost in order to make $5875 on those trades Friday:
$136,000
BUT
Keep in mind. AAPL would have either had to close under $235 or over $270
Also, had I seen something to see id be wrong I'd close them out quickly to minimize my loss, usually when it's 50% of what I'm expecting to make. If I'm in the red $2500 already, I'm out. Period.
Both of which seemed impossible to me given the market resistance levels I've shown here on the charts I've posted.
A lot goes into it. It's not for the faint of heart and I don't recommend anyone doing this style of trading unless you know what you're doing. It's a style large hedge funds and firms use, but just at a smaller level.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. I guess you only do these types of trades on the weekly options expiring the same day? Have you ever had one of these trades go against you when the underlying shares increase/(decrease) in value? If that happened, would you close both contracts by the end of the day or let the trades settle? I think if it is settled, the brokerage should buy and sell the underlying shares so you are not stuck with shares at the end of the day and take on the risk over the weekend.
I notice sometimes when the option expires on the same day and there is a lot of volatility, the options can still have time value associated with the underlying options. I have seen this on a Friday when earnings are released before the market opens. So say you do a $100/$120 call spread and the shares are trading at $150, the $100 calls may have an ask of $50 but the $120 may have an ask of $32.
Thanks for the additional details. Couldn't get this info from the images you posted.
how does stuff like sqqq best work. buy it at end of day if you think the next day is going to be crap, sell when think things are maxed the next day? seems like if you wait until the open things are generally already set in motion (lose much of the gain) though there are the days things switch directions but
Quoted from sd_tom:how does stuff like sqqq best work. buy it at end of day if you think the next day is going to be crap, sell when think things are maxed the next day? seems like if you wait until the open things are generally already set in motion (lose much of the gain) though there are the days things switch directions but
Hard to bet day to day as you never know how the market will do the next day. Over the next couple months, the market should continue down until things start to improve in the US. US cases and deaths are still increasing on a daily basis. We need things to start to improve and life to return to normal. I would think SQQQ will do well over the next month or so. But it is really a guessing game. The Nasdaq has not really dropped that much. Back on December 24, 2018 it was at 6,190, less than two years ago. The recent low with the pandemic is only 6,631. I think it will drop below the 6,190 level at some point.
Quoted from Londonpinball:KPG I am great full for your post and impressed with your strategy.
Your trades are wicked cool and your explanations prove you have experience teaching investors. Thank you
You're welcome !! There's so many strategies and ways to invest/trade, and I have a few tools in my belt I've collected over the years of doing this so glad to share. Can't always promise I'll be right but I can always promise win or lose there's something to learn from me lol. Trust me, I've learned from so many mistakes I've made over the years. If someone claims they haven't lost or made mistakes they are lying 
list of inverse 3x family of ETFs
https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-inverse-short-etfs/
interesting to look at the YTD values for some of these despite being an intra-day intended product
this seems more approachable than the greek people are speaking above while doing some apocalypse gambling.. i mean, -3*gain of what it is tracking is an easy concept at least
Quoted from pinballjah:Thanks for the detailed explanation. I guess you only do these types of trades on the weekly options expiring the same day? Have you ever had one of these trades go against you when the underlying shares increase/(decrease) in value? If that happened, would you close both contracts by the end of the day or let the trades settle? I think if it is settled, the brokerage should buy and sell the underlying shares so you are not stuck with shares at the end of the day and take on the risk over the weekend.
I notice sometimes when the option expires on the same day and there is a lot of volatility, the options can still have time value associated with the underlying options. I have seen this on a Friday when earnings are released before the market opens. So say you do a $100/$120 call spread and the shares are trading at $150, the $100 calls may have an ask of $50 but the $120 may have an ask of $32.
Thanks for the additional details. Couldn't get this info from the images you posted.
What I posted was just one of my strategies I do with weekly options, only if the setup is perfect. Lately it's been once a week at minimum for that particular trade thanks to the exaggerated premiums on options due to volatility.
I think like a Market Maker and try to ride on their coattails during this, and they want as many options to expire worthless as possible because that's how they make their money. So many variables.
Also a factor, AAPL is not able to execute their stock buyback until next month, so they weren't able to buy tons of shares at the end of the day like they sometimes do. Also, I look at the Open Interest at certain strikes vs the volume that day. If there's not much Open Interest on certain strikes until that Friday, now there's a ton of volume at those strikes- tells me some big fish out there is selling them and the Market Makers are going to want and 'pin' the stock between a certain area to have those options expire worthless.
This is just today, next couple of months will be different and I adjust my strategy again based on other market conditions I've traded. This is the way I trade during volatile markets. In less volatile markets, I go 1-2 months out and hold them longer and will close out at 50% profit or better or wait until they expire worthless but it might take longer.
Also, if the trade goes against me and I don't close them (which would be very undisciplined and dumb) then what can happen is someone can exercise the option I've sold and I'd be on the hook to buy those shares at X price from them. Well, seeing I had 100 contracts sold @ the $235 strike price, let's say I didn't close them and the stock collapsed to $230/share.
I'd have to buy 10,000 shares of AAPL at $235/share ($2.35M) from someone at a loss of $5/share which would be a $50,000 loss.
Obviously if it gets too close for my comfort I'll close before that ever happens, which has happened, and I've lost money of course in the past. Luckily very little compared to my overall gains.
Also, I'd never do this if earnings releases are close by or other news related factors could sway the stock.
Most brokers like mine also will force close your options if it hits their thresholds as well, I've had them close out trades without letting them expire worthless because they had a +/- $7 threshold on AAPL that if it moves X amount in a certain time period, they see it as risky, and will close you out win or lose. So there's that too.
Like I said, not for the faint of heart ! LOL
I have been following this thread and have no stomach for day trading individual stocks, and my question is how long will it take for the s&p to return to the level it was?
Quoted from D-Gottlieb:I have been following this thread and have no stomach for day trading individual stocks, and my question is how long will it take for the s&p to return to the level it was?
Why I trade
Because no one can predict where the overall market will be in the future
We can all say "the market will always go up"
But it can always go down much further. Then you buy at the wrong time and your cash it wrapped up for months or years for it to breakeven. If that ever happens.
Problem is you can have years of gains and lose them in an instant like we saw. Tough game. I found the way to make the most money is to put in some work (it's technically a second job) to get reliably paid.
Parking money forever and expecting to get rich is a tough gig in the stock market. Has to be a horrible feeling watching your profits rise slowly over the years and see them vanish in one month.
Quoted from sd_tom:list of inverse 3x family of ETFs
https://etfdb.com/themes/leveraged-3x-inverse-short-etfs/
interesting to look at the YTD values for some of these despite being an intra-day intended product
this seems more approachable than the greek people are speaking above while doing some apocalypse gambling.. i mean, -3*gain of what it is tracking is an easy concept at least
3X ETFs are an easy way to lose. They are the closest thing to gambling in the stock market, and they are designed as if Vegas casinos created them.. the house always wins.
Quoted from D-Gottlieb:I have been following this thread and have no stomach for day trading individual stocks, and my question is how long will it take for the s&p to return to the level it was?
It took 10 years the last time.
Quoted from sd_tom:what's the catch / fine print im missing?
background: im not talking about doing this as a hobby. more like.. im WFH, a little cabin fever.. gambling a bit with a couple thousand (sub pinball machine dollars) dollars while im bored. not touching my 401k at all (and currently maxing out) its money i can lose.
so.. not asking in the context of a career in day trading type strategy, more a way to pass the time for now while stuck
Quoted from sd_tom:what's the catch / fine print im missing?
They're a day trading vehicle meant to never be held overnight. Most of them rebalance daily, many are based on stock futures so they have time decay as well.
Imagine you start at 100 and the index goes down 5%, at 3x leverage now you're down to 85. The next day it goes up 5%. Now that just gets you back to 97.75. Repeat that enough times and you always end at zero.
Quoted from swampfire:It took 10 years the last time.
Different story today. Much more solid foundation. I am about even today with where I was a year ago and I read about how the s&p can recover quicker than back in 2008. Why wouldn't it?
Quoted from loneacer:They're a day trading vehicle meant to never be held overnight. Most of them rebalance daily, many are based on stock futures so they have time decay as well.
Imagine you start at 100 and the index goes down 5%, at 3x leverage now you're down to 85. The next day it goes up 5%. Now that just gets you back to 97.75. Repeat that enough times and you always end at zero.
yeah that part i get.. my original question was about sort of what happens overnight.. if you buy at the close in anticipation it will open down, does that work out or because of the nature of it, it's not going to work out that way.. it's really just for within a single day (open - close)
Quoted from cait001:DOW futures right now... -27.00 / -0.13%
probably the calmest I've seen it in a long time!
Futures don't open for another 4.5 hours. Weekend Wall Street is the closest you can get to an idea of what's going on when the futures are closed, but they're not a good barometer (they have the DOW down about 200 points at the moment)
Futures open in an hour. Tough to guess where as they are easily manipulated by relatively low volume, a large hedge fund can move them easily themselves it's pretty crazy.
But if they are showing a large gap down, look for initial panic selling and a bounce, or a huge gap up will likely fade.
Quoted from kpg:Futures open in an hour. Tough to guess where as they are easily manipulated by relatively low volume, a large hedge fund can move them easily themselves it's pretty crazy.
But if they are showing a large gap down, look for initial panic selling and a bounce, or a huge gap up will likely fade.
Big jump in USA deaths in 48 hours.
Im not smelling roses this week, more like bear shit.
Quoted from Rondogg:Trump moving the goalposts to April 30, how will wall street respond?
I’d assume it will drop a good amount tomorrow
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