(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #2801 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Anyone like a VXX $50/$60 call spread? What time frame would you prefer? Personally I think the market will continue down until the US cases start to improve. We have family in Iowa and it is business as usual there. Everyone is still going to work at their offices and you wouldn't know there was a pandemic going on. I think the other States will be harder hit in the next couple months.

    Iowa shut down all non-essentials last night. We aren't stay at home yet though.

    #2802 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Anyone like a VXX $50/$60 call spread? What time frame would you prefer? Personally I think the market will continue down until the US cases start to improve. We have family in Iowa and it is business as usual there. Everyone is still going to work at their offices and you wouldn't know there was a pandemic going on. I think the other States will be harder hit in the next couple months.

    I had bought the April 50/57 call spread yesterday to sell today on a bigger move

    I don't have a play on VXX right now set up, but the IV is so pumped on them selling spreads and having time decay on your side would be the better play, especially with the weekend coming you can take advantage of that extra Theta. But I'm out of VXX for now.

    #2803 3 months ago

    Talked with my advisor today. My thoughts are the floor of this is 50%. Even so, put a limit order to rotate 50% of my bond holdings to stocks when the market hits 40% down from peak. bonds will be sold anyways so worst case scenario the money sits as cash and the order never hits. even if market overshoots 10% I'd only be down 20% on the buy. I know its a while before things will be normal, and it will likely be 18 + months before the recovery actually takes hold, but I think I'm safe buying at 40% down. Still have plenty of bond exposure otherwise.

    #2804 3 months ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    I haven't been over there in years, but just did a quick walk though.
    Wow.
    Their C19 thread makes ours look like a playground.
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=305217&start=3850

    I skimmed a couple pages of it and they seem a bit more civil

    I don't go there often, don't even have an account there, but they're a calming influence during market turmoils. Lots of folks with multi-million dollar retirement accounts post there.

    #2805 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I skimmed a couple pages of it and they seem a bit more civil
    I don't go there often, don't even have an account there, but they're a calming influence during market turmoils. Lots of folks with multi-million dollar retirement accounts post there.

    You can tell the level of sophistication is a bit..."different". I almost want to take advantage of a "portfolio review request", but I'm a bit apprehensive on the feedback.

    #2806 3 months ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    You can tell the level of sophistication is a bit..."different". I almost want to take advantage of a "portfolio review request", but I'm a bit apprehensive on the feedback.

    I think their standard answer is your entire portfolio should be in some combination of total stock market, total bond market, and total international market. For most people (myself included), that's probably the best bet, but it sure is boring.

    #2807 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I think their standard answer is your entire portfolio should be in some combination of total stock market, total bond market, and total international market. For most people (myself included), that's probably the best bet, but it sure is boring.

    Agreed. I have a rough understanding of Boglehead philosophy, and it's probably the most logical way but you're right, it isn't much fun.

    #2808 3 months ago
    Quoted from oPinsesame:

    Ackman is the worst kind of POS. Fearmongering to cause market panic, which his statements did, because he had substantial shorts on. I hope he got squeezed in the last 3 days as the markets rallied on the stimulus package.
    Notwithstanding Ackman’s douche tactics I do think we are in for some big drops this week as the massive unemployment numbers and exponential growth of deaths will overshadow the stimulus package and the market will correct for this falsely inflated surge.

    The shorts don't do anything different than the bulls. Different sides of the same coin. Bulls put out all kinds of crap to pump their positions, but since they are A-100% All American longs and average Joe only plays the long side, it is all good.

    And where would crappy CEOs-- that are running a company into the ground-- where would they be if they could not blame their problems on the shorts?

    #2809 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    Do I go move everything to Bonds 100% today to save myself on the continual fall

    Why do you want to by bonds? What maturity of bond are you thinking? You realize that if you buy some long term bonds in today's low interest rate environment and if some other black swan that no one sees coming were to drive interest rates back up that your bonds will go down in price.

    I have never traded bonds so take this with a grain of salt: If you go the bond route, go for the short maturities of 5 years, or less. They will not lose very much if interest rates to rise.

    Unless you have gobs of money to play around with, sometimes your best bet is just go to cash.

    #2810 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Unless you have gobs of money to play around with, sometimes your best bet is just go to cash.

    not much funds here...

    How do I turn a 401k into cash?
    I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

    #2811 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    How do I turn a 401k into cash?

    I cannot answer that question. I know nothing about how your 401K is set up. You would need to ask the shop where your 401K is located and see what restrictions there are.

    #2812 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    not much funds here...
    How do I turn a 401k into cash?
    I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

    When I had a 401k, there were a couple funds that were essentially money market funds. Close to the same as cash. Check Fidelity for one of those.

    #2813 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    not much funds here...
    How do I turn a 401k into cash?
    I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

    Look for something labled preservation of cash or short term bond.

    #2814 3 months ago

    if you do that though, its not a 'forget about it thing' anymore.. otherwise you may miss the up swing and realized your losses

    #2815 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    not much funds here...
    How do I turn a 401k into cash?
    I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

    Does your 401k have a money market option?

    Edit: loneacer beat me to it

    #2816 3 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    So you're suggesting that Fidelity can take as long as 7 days to process a trade order? I've worked with hundreds of 401k Plans and, unless I'm dealing with some privately held stock I've never heard of that. Your best bet is to call their Call Center and ask specifically about how long it takes to place a trade.

    My 401k is they fidelity and if I move from one investment to another, as long as the order goes thru before the close it happens same day.

    #2817 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I had bought the April 50/57 call spread yesterday to sell today on a bigger move
    I don't have a play on VXX right now set up, but the IV is so pumped on them selling spreads and having time decay on your side would be the better play, especially with the weekend coming you can take advantage of that extra Theta. But I'm out of VXX for now.

    I wish there was a translate button on Pinside so I could understand this, unfortunately it’s way over my head.

    #2818 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    not much funds here...
    How do I turn a 401k into cash?
    I would be happy to just park it on the sidelines and wait.

    You can just sell your positions and not rebuy. It will just be cash in the account until you do something with it.

    #2819 3 months ago

    I was lucky to have a general account that pays 4% as an option to park my 401k. I've had the option for 20 years, but never used it. As I get closer to retirement though I moved it 3 weeks ago just as everything started blowing up. Can't touch it for 90 days though so I'm hoping it stays like this for a while longer. Will need to make a decision in a few months.

    #2820 3 months ago
    Quoted from BradKreisler:

    I was lucky to have a general account that pays 4% as an option to park my 401k. I've had the option for 20 years, but never used it. As I get closer to retirement though I moved it 3 weeks ago just as everything started blowing up. Can't touch it for 90 days though so I'm hoping it stays like this for a while longer. Will need to make a decision in a few months.

    4% to park it in cash is pretty darn good. I have a 403(b) where you get 3% in cash that I’ve had for 25 years and I thought that was good.

    #2821 3 months ago

    What was all that "not going to be bullish into the weekend" talk?

    So far, I've blown it today.

    #2822 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinlink:

    What was all that "not going to be bullish into the weekend" talk?
    So far, I've blown it today.

    It's a gamble either way at this point.

    #2823 3 months ago

    Went short on NVDA this morning at $249.

    #2824 3 months ago

    Things are dropping fast over the last minutes of trading. I guess people are profit taking and don't want to get stuck holding over any bad weekend news.

    #2825 3 months ago

    I pulled everything last Friday and Monday. I put it on the sidelines earning 2-4%..... while still contributing to 401k/market. I have never pulled out of the market in the last 25 years, but I lost so much this time I panicked a bit and said F this. Then Tuesday the market spiked of course, F@*k... but I'm still staying on the sidelines until I think the bottom has been hit.

    #2826 3 months ago

    Wow.

    That Dow ~22K area is no joke.

    Lots of selling anytime the Dow gets over it.

    Screenshot_20200327-135251_thinkorswim (resized).jpg
    #2827 3 months ago
    Quoted from pinlink:

    Went short on NVDA this morning at $249.

    I have not looked at NVDA for years. This looks like a bubble chart.

    What lit a fire under it ass?

    Screen Shot 2020-03-27 at 3.56.25 PM (resized).png

    #2828 3 months ago

    Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.

    I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.

    I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.

    You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.

    My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.

    You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today

    Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
    Screenshot_20200327-135632_thinkorswim (resized).jpgScreenshot_20200327-135644_thinkorswim (resized).jpg

    #2829 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I have not looked at NVDA for years. This looks like a bubble chart.
    What lit a fire under it ass?
    [quoted image]

    They pretty much are the standard in video cards (well boosted by the crypto side). However they are poised to lead for some time.

    #2830 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.
    I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.
    I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.
    You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.
    My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.
    You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today
    Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
    [quoted image][quoted image]

    Do you have any resources you'd suggest? I don't expect to employ any strategies of that type during the covid market, but it has given me motivation to learn a cohesive strategy during volatile markets to supplement my normal "stay the course" portfolio.

    #2831 3 months ago
    Quoted from Deaconblooze:

    Do you have any resources you'd suggest? I don't expect to employ any strategies of that type during the covid market, but it has given me motivation to learn a cohesive strategy during volatile markets to supplement my normal "stay the course" portfolio.

    This site is a great start, i'd also recommend YouTube videos for even better explanations of Short / Selling Call or Put spreads for a Credit

    https://www.optionsplaybook.com/option-strategies/short-call-spread/

    #2832 3 months ago

    Well, that really was predictable.

    Didn't take a position though as used to going long.

    Harder to call from here though.

    #2833 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.
    I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.
    I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.
    You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.
    My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.
    You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today
    Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
    [quoted image][quoted image]

    Wow! I wish you had a live webcam and could explain your trades as you make them

    #2834 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Here's a peak at what I did today to profit nicely, selling Put and Call spreads.
    I sell them at X amount, expecting the stock to never rise or fall to the Strike price amount.
    I get a ton of DMs and I appreciate them, but tough to get to all of them, so I just respectfully ask to not ask how to learn this strategy. It's very complex obviously. I've been doing it reliably for over a decade and for 90% profitable trades. The other 10% is typically breakeven or small losses as I always cut losing trades very quickly if they go red.
    You'll notice where I sold them at a certain price, say 50 contracts @ $.28 each. That's a credit to me for +$1400. That's because each contact is 100 options. So, 50 = 5,000 x $.28 - there's another leg to that spread but to avoid confusion, my total credit paid to me is $0.28 per contract.
    My expectation is that the strike price, say $235 a share, is not hit and they expire worthless.
    You will see the current price is on the right, $0.00 as they expired worthless by close today
    Easy money. I do this almost weekly if the IV - implied volatility is just right.
    [quoted image][quoted image]

    Thanks for sharing this strategy. Can you explain the terminology with this screen shot. If you are selling a call spread, where is the buy and the sell and the exercise price? Are you just selling out of the money puts and calls that you think will expire worthless by the end of the day? Thanks.

    #2835 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    This site is a great start, i'd also recommend YouTube videos for even better explanations of Short / Selling Call or Put spreads for a Credit
    https://www.optionsplaybook.com/option-strategies/short-call-spread/

    That's nice webpage.
    ==================================================

    For anybody who really wants to get into options, I recommend this book.

    Options as a Strategic Investment.

    https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=options+as+a+strategic+investment&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
    =========================================

    If I had a big bank account, and could go back and do it over again, I would sell naked calls and naked puts and sell time premium. Most out of the money options expire worthless. But it takes a big book for the times you are wrong.
    ==========================================

    Big mistake make with buying options is thinking time is your friend. Wrong. Time is your enemy; The clock is always ticking. And with each tick you lose a little bit of premium.

    #2836 3 months ago

    you guys are probably aware, but check out tastytrade.com. Tons of resources and trading strategies. And best of all it’s free.

    #2837 3 months ago

    local news.. schools extension of closure.. so, that's prob the bad news of the weekend.. this all started with 2 weeks and now people are formally extending closures another 2-3

    #2838 3 months ago
    Quoted from sd_tom:

    local news.. schools extension of closure.. so, that's prob the bad news of the weekend.. this all started with 2 weeks and now people are formally extending closures another 2-3

    Our school year is done for the year. Next grade in Fall.

    #2839 3 months ago

    Q2 earnings are going to be a raging dumpster fire. I don’t think the extent of that is already priced in. I’m both eager and horrified to watch the 60 minutes spot on Sunday evening. That isn’t likely to instil average joe investor confidence along with all the other 24hr news cycles.

    #2840 3 months ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    Our school year is done for the year. Next grade in Fall.

    I think we are the same here, sad for all the seniors.. not even sure they will have graduation ceremonies in June.

    #2841 3 months ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I think their standard answer is your entire portfolio should be in some combination of total stock market, total bond market, and total international market. For most people (myself included), that's probably the best bet, but it sure is boring.

    I have a large portion of our portfolio managed through Vanguard Flagship Select Services and have been very pleased with their approach and communication. While I enjoy playing around in the market, when it comes to ensuring I retire comfortably, it's always good to have someone who can remove emotion, act as a fiduciary and help you achieve your goals.

    #2842 3 months ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Wow! I wish you had a live webcam and could explain your trades as you make them

    Funny you say that, many years ago I used to run a stock trading service and hosted a live chat room, put out daily training videos, and real time trading alerts.

    My site/service was actually rated #1 and #2 for a couple of years on Investimonials. Hell, maybe even some people here were my clients hahah! Now that would be funny.

    This was my newsletter:

    https://investimonials.com/newsletters/reviews-prophet-alerts.aspx

    Ultimately even though I had several hundred active users at any given time, it became way too stressful to make it worth my time.

    I'd get a ton of emails, many people who didn't follow directions even though you gave them clear and cut instructions and they'd somehow still screw up the trade.

    Id send an alert like "Buy AAPL at $135.25" then the next day, "Sell AAPL $143.73" (yep back then that was AAPLs price at the time, PRE SPLIT lol

    So many people would lock in the profit and move along...

    Then I'd get that one person... "Hey Kris, I decided to hold on and let it ride thinking it would go up more and didn't sell. Now they released their earnings and are down to $119/share. What should I do? I think I need to cancel because I lost a lot of money"

    Things like that made me just keep all my stuff to myself and just trade on my own.. and I guess post here on this forum about stocks lol.

    I'm also on Instagram if anyone wants to follow me, but it's mostly my car hobby page so you may not care haha

    @xkpgx

    #2843 3 months ago

    Very impressive. I have tried a couple of your suggestions above such as STKS and ARCO, win win! If you consider restarting this service again I would be very interested.

    #2844 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Funny you say that, many years ago I used to run a stock trading service and hosted a live chat room, put out daily training videos, and real time trading alerts.
    My site/service was actually rated #1 and #2 for a couple of years on Investimonials. Hell, maybe even some people here were my clients hahah! Now that would be funny.
    This was my newsletter:
    https://investimonials.com/newsletters/reviews-prophet-alerts.aspx
    Ultimately even though I had several hundred active users at any given time, it became way too stressful to make it worth my time.
    I'd get a ton of emails, many people who didn't follow directions even though you gave them clear and cut instructions and they'd somehow still screw up the trade.
    Id send an alert like "Buy AAPL at $135.25" then the next day, "Sell AAPL $143.73" (yep back then that was AAPLs price at the time, PRE SPLIT lol
    So many people would lock in the profit and move along...
    Then I'd get that one person... "Hey Kris, I decided to hold on and let it ride thinking it would go up more and didn't sell. Now they released their earnings and are down to $119/share. What should I do? I think I need to cancel because I lost a lot of money"
    Things like that made me just keep all my stuff to myself and just trade on my own.. and I guess post here on this forum about stocks lol.
    I'm also on Instagram if anyone wants to follow me, but it's mostly my car hobby page so you may not care haha
    @xkpgx

    Dang I wish you were still doing your newsletter! I am trying to figure out when to switch 75% of my 401k from bonds to a stock fund in my fidelity retirement account. If we retest the 18,000 level I think I will make the move from bonds to stocks and just stop looking at it, with the way my health has been my wife will probably be spending the someday anyway.

    #2845 3 months ago
    Quoted from mtdouble:

    Very impressive. I have tried a couple of your suggestions above such as STKS and ARCO, win win! If you consider restarting this service again I would be very interested.

    STKS was such a win... Got in average around $.80 or so, sold half @ $1.49, and the rest at $1.99 yesterday!!! Glad you followed.

    ARCO I should have sold some on that big pop the other day, but really, it's an amazing long term hold.

    They are the largest McDonalds franchisee in the world... And their McDonalds are in Latin America and the Caribbean. Really, the only places the Coronavirus hasn't shut anything down yet their stock took a beating. $750m or so marketcap now... But $4B+ in revenue a year. When all this passes, this thing should rip.

    At some point I may start a new service, but it would have to be a completely different format because it was so stressful to run it on a daily basis and it affected my own personal trading to be honest, so it's unlikely.

    #2846 3 months ago

    Got this from Disney yesterday.
    The new opening date has been set to...
    "Until Further Notice"

    03.27.20.Disney Update(1).pdf
    #2847 3 months ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    Got this from Disney yesterday.
    The new opening date has been set to...
    "Until Further Notice"[quoted image]

    This is a bummer. I'm glad they are extending our annual passes, really cool of them. I take the kids to Disney sometimes on Fri or Sat nights to grab dinner and ride a couple rides, and I am starting to miss doing those things. Cabin fever is setting in... Can't wait until this is all over already.

    #2848 3 months ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    This is a bummer. I'm glad they are extending our annual passes, really cool of them. I take the kids to Disney sometimes on Fri or Sat nights to grab dinner and ride a couple rides, and I am starting to miss doing those things. Cabin fever is setting in... Can't wait until this is all over already.

    The good ol' days. The biggest problem now is not keeping parks closed long enough. Setting a date, letting everyone back in say July 4th, then there's another wave of sickness, guests and employees get sick again, its just bad press and law suits galore.
    This is going to last longer than everyone thinks.

    #2849 3 months ago

    I missed the last 20 pages.

    I'll chime in with what I've done market wise.

    A very painful nothing. I did buy the usual amount on Mar 1st.

    This is the part of the "set allocation, buy, hold, do not deviate" strategy I believe in that is stomach churning.

    I've done this 2 times in the past, 2001 and 2008. I suspect it will not be the last time.

    This also when having close to a year of expenses in a cash account can lower stress a bit.

    #2850 3 months ago

    Would someone be able to explain this option transaction. What does the '100' represent and the 'W27'? AAPL traded between $247 and $255 on Friday. Thanks for the help.

    pasted_image (resized).png
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