I generally think here that is there is zero upside to where the market is at now. What do we know?
obviously we're not going to be open for business in April and May without a lockdown. No lockdown is coming, so this problem is going to extend for a long time
so far the options presented seem to help huge businesses and the service industry, but if you're a small business owner who made a decent amount last year you may be out of luck.
there's a huge amount of debt that will crush a lot of these companies if this extends on too long. Currently it's going to extend on too long
I really can't see why I'd want to own the market right now. Certain companies where I think they're going to do good either way (Coke, Pepsi, Verizon, etc) maybe, but companies that depend on travel and storefronts...it could be 6 to 12 months before we can go to them.
It basically took China 2 months to control everything and get Wuhan back going again, and that was when they only had 259 cases.
We have 65,000. And we're not even trying to lock it down in 75% of the US.
So at a minimum, you can add 2 months to any time we decide to lock things down finally. If we don't, then it will continue to fester indefinitely. We're not even restricting travel out of New York, just insane, that's going to make it even worse.
Outside of some miracle treatment/cure, we're going to be in trouble for a LONG time. Leadership doesn't get it. Only certain governors get it. Most companies don't get it either, they think this is going to be over end of April...got news for you, not happening. It mathematically can't happen without a full lockdown or cure.
About the only thing I'm comfortable owning right now is Gold/silver. Mainly silver, because it's completely out of whack with it's historic ratio to gold of 60 to 1 (it's like over 100 to 1 currently). And they could get crushed too if people need to liquidate more assets as debt comes due. But I like things that are out of whack with where they are normal, and silver is currently there.