(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #2601 69 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    Asked for donations. (Like that operator gofundme thread that went over like a brick).

    Holy crow. Just read about this. What a crock for a 1 Trillion dollar company. This should be the cost of doing business for them.

    #2602 69 days ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Just read about this. What a crock for a 1 Trillion dollar company. This should be the cost of doing business for them.

    But this is how the rich get richer, use someone else's money!

    #2603 69 days ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Holy crow. Just read about this. What a crock for a 1 Trillion dollar company. This should be the cost of doing business for them.

    Considering they are one of the few things that are still making money during this whole scenario, yea, it's pretty bad optics, especially for such a rich company that got tons of tax breaks and handouts starting out...

    #2604 69 days ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    Holy crow. Just read about this. What a crock for a 1 Trillion dollar company. This should be the cost of doing business for them.

    Quoted from Zablon:

    Considering they are one of the few things that are still making money during this whole scenario, yea, it's pretty bad optics, especially for such a rich company that got tons of tax breaks and handouts starting out...

    add in the fact that just 3-4 months ago that Bezos said that due to the size of Amazon, that the scale for failure for any new business it starts will be in the millions of dollars. And a few millions will be no big deal considering Amazon's size.

    Problem with Amazon is that I cannot avoid buying from Amazon just as I cannot avoid buying things from China. Lowes, Home Depot, or the local computer store does not have what I need. And Amazon does. Trying to buy mom and pop local does the heart good but is difficult to do.

    And all these companies, along with Autozone, O'reilly's, Advance Auto Parts, and Harbor Freight are public companies and do not quality as local business, IMO.

    #2605 69 days ago

    While not as outrageous as Bezos begging for humanitarian donations for his poverty-wage employees, my favourite brazen request for government money has to be from Hobby Lobby. (The company that was bizarrely found trafficking in ancient Iraq artifacts)

    #2606 69 days ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    While not as outrageous as Bezos begging for humanitarian donations for his poverty-wage employees, my favourite brazen request for government money has to be from Hobby Lobby. (The company that was bizarrely found trafficking in ancient Iraq artifacts)

    haven't seen that one yet...*goes hunting*

    #2607 69 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    haven't seen that one yet...*goes hunting*

    Found one about the trafficking in ancient artifacts. But it is behind a paywall so complete article is not available. No luck finding anything Hobby Lobby going for govt. money.

    https://fortune.com/2015/10/27/hobby-lobby-investigation-artifacts/

    #2608 69 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I assume everybody has had a trade blow up big in their face. I had one of those way back in 1986-87. And it is all about how you can get hammered by the news and the professional traders trying to stick it to each other. This virus is a different animal than what has come before. But you still cannot trust the news.
    ==================
    This was the set up.
    .
    .
    What was going on at the time: The AIDS virus was front page news. Biotech stocks had hit the market big time. There were stocks like Cetus, Biogen, and Genentech. Genentech had been a runaway success as far as the market was concerned. I was just getting started in my self-taught trading.
    News was hard to get. Stock quotes on the tape were delayed by 20 minutes--unless you paid big bucks for real time quotes. You still had to get yesterday's action from the stock pages in newspapers. I subscribed to a weekly copy of Barrons until I learned I could get it sooner if I went to the news shop on Sunday.
    I also had my Mansfield weekly charts. Genentech ran up from its IPO price all the way up to around 105 and then pulled back to around 85 and then bounced around in this range for a couple of months. When I started charting it, Genentech was around 95 dollars per share. OTM 85 puts with 6 weeks to go were selling for $3.50 per contract. OTM 100 calls were selling for around $3.50 per contract. I did not have the money to buy or sell a 95 dollar stock. But with the margin allowances on that stock I had enough margin allowance to short 5 options contracts.
    I put on a short straddle and sold 5 OTM 85 6 week puts for $3.50 per. Times 500 that was $1750 credit to my account. The margin does not double on a short straddle so I also shorted 5 OTM 6 week calls for $3.50 per. $1750.00 x 2 = $3500 credit to my account. So, now all Genentech had to do is stay within 100 and 85 and I was golden. Genentech kept trading sideways and was slowly creeping up to $100 per share. My puts got down to 25 cents per contract so I bought those back and covered. The 100 strike calls were trading for about a dollar. Expiation was one week away. It was a Friday so I told myself that I would cover the short calls when they got to 50 cents. That is how I closed out Friday.
    .
    =============
    This was the scene.
    .
    .
    I worked nights and would spend my days setting at my broker's desk and we would watch his Quotron together. This is how I got real time quotes and news. If I wanted to make a trade, I would say to broker "buy this". He would fill out the ticket and hand it to the clerk. Many times I saw my trades happen soon as the order clerk made the entry. (You all may find it surprising, but in certain instances, a 100 share trade could get a stock to moving).
    I had a good job with good income and could afford to take some risks. Some trades made my broker nervous. He had no balls, even with my money.
    .
    .
    =========================
    This turned out to be my problem
    .
    .
    Options go thru an opening rotation. They do not start trading until after the stock trades. Genentech had moved from the IPO price of around $35 per share all the way up to $105 per. There was a chain of options as long as your arm. 1 week options. 3 month options, 6 months and 9 months. Lots of options to rotate through. Sometimes it could take 10 minutes to get all of the contracts open. I did not know about how options traded with opening rotations. I was about to find out.
    ==================================
    This was the getting hosed part.
    .
    .
    Monday morning. Bright and early. My broker is at his desk with me sitting at his side. I am short 5 genentech calls striking at 100 dollars that expire in 5 days. On Friday, those calls had closed at $1.00 per contract. About a minute before the market opened a news flash on Genentech popped up on the Quotron. At the moment, I knew I was hosed. I just did not know how bad it was going to be. The NEWS article? : "GENENTECH MAY HAVE FOUND A CURE FOR THE AIDS VIRUS." My butthole puckered up so tight you would not have been able drive and nail into it.
    I am short 5 calls with a 100 strike price. The market opens and Genentech blasts out of the gate at $102 dollars. 103, then 104, 105. Me and my broker are going Oh shit oh shit. I cannot buy 500 shares of a $105 dollar stock; I don't have that kind of money and my margin was all used up. The price keeps moving up 106. 107. I cannot buy my short calls back because opening rotation was taking forever. 108, 109. Finally, when the stock hit 110 my options finally opened. My broker was freaking out, which was freaking me out, so I covered in a panic.
    A trade that was going to net $3500.00 for me turned into a loss that cost me $4500.00. All it took was 10 minutes. I was psychologically hosed and frozen. As the week progressed, Genentech slowly started drifting down. But the end of the week it had settled back down to $95.00 per share and the calls I covered in a panic went out worthless. Even if I had put stop loss orders on these calls it would not have helped.
    I learned a lot of lessons that day. #1 lesson: If you don't have to money to buy the actual shares to cover yourself, then you are overtrading. #2 lesson: Never trust the news as all kinds of games can be played with the news.
    I put this up because while there will be all kinds of trading opportunities with this market, there will many opportunities for you to get hurt real bad.
    You can call this trade a comedy of errors. Or a series of fuckups. The end result was the same.
    Hope this helps anybody who managed to read thru it all.

    Good story. Sounds like my OILU purchase. Bought the security for $11.67 and wrote the $10 January 2021 calls for $4.50. Net cost of $7.17. OILU can't trade below $10 and oil can only go up. Guaranteed to make a cool 39% for less than a year. Less than a month later, OILU is currently trading at 30 cents.

    #2609 69 days ago
    Quoted from pinballjah:

    Good story. Sounds like my OILU purchase. Bought the security for $11.67 and wrote the $10 January 2021 calls for $4.50. Net cost of $7.17. OILU can't trade below $10 and oil can only go up. Guaranteed to make a cool 39% for less than a year. Less than a month later, OILU is currently trading at 30 cents.

    That's playing with fire. Those 3x leveraged ETFs are all guaranteed to go to 0 on a long enough timeline.

    #2610 69 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    That's playing with fire. Those 3x leveraged ETFs are all guaranteed to go to 0 on a long enough timeline.

    Absolutely. Leveraged ETFs are typically day trading vehicles or used as hedges. They decay over time due to re-balancing and other factors. They trick people as well, as their charts are completely inaccurate long term because they drop to almost nothing again, then they split into big numbers and decay to almost nothing.. rinse/repeat. Likely OILU will split here soon because of how low it has gone.

    Example, TVIXs split history:

    TVIX Split History Table
    Date Ratio
    12/21/2012 1 for 10
    08/30/2013 1 for 10
    06/23/2015 1 for 10
    08/09/2016 1 for 25
    03/16/2017 1 for 10
    06/08/2018 1 for 10
    12/02/2019 1 for 10

    2X and 3X ETFs are NEVER a good idea to invest in long term. Get in, get out win or lose.

    #2611 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Absolutely. Leveraged ETFs are typically day trading vehicles or used as hedges. They decay over time due to re-balancing and other factors. They trick people as well, as their charts are completely inaccurate long term because they drop to almost nothing again, then they split into big numbers and decay to almost nothing.. rinse/repeat. Likely OILU will split here soon because of how low it has gone.
    Example, TVIXs split history:
    TVIX Split History Table
    Date Ratio
    12/21/2012 1 for 10
    08/30/2013 1 for 10
    06/23/2015 1 for 10
    08/09/2016 1 for 25
    03/16/2017 1 for 10
    06/08/2018 1 for 10
    12/02/2019 1 for 10
    2X and 3X ETFs are NEVER a good idea to invest in long term. Get in, get out win or lose.

    Yea I learned that lesson the hard way around $10k worth in JNUG/NUGT a few years ago.

    #2612 69 days ago

    I just wish I had bought more dave and busters :s

    #2613 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Absolutely. Leveraged ETFs are typically day trading vehicles or used as hedges. They decay over time due to re-balancing and other factors. They trick people as well, as their charts are completely inaccurate long term because they drop to almost nothing again, then they split into big numbers and decay to almost nothing.. rinse/repeat. Likely OILU will split here soon because of how low it has gone.
    Example, TVIXs split history:
    TVIX Split History Table
    Date Ratio
    12/21/2012 1 for 10
    08/30/2013 1 for 10
    06/23/2015 1 for 10
    08/09/2016 1 for 25
    03/16/2017 1 for 10
    06/08/2018 1 for 10
    12/02/2019 1 for 10
    2X and 3X ETFs are NEVER a good idea to invest in long term. Get in, get out win or lose.

    They are a bit of a racket.

    #2614 69 days ago
    Quoted from orangegsx:

    I just wish I had bought more dave and busters :s

    And the guy who normally sits next to me at work. We are both working from home now, but Skype about stuff a little every day. He was looking at that the day before it popped, so maybe Friday? It jumped yesterday when everything was down and then again today when everything was up. Don’t know why it popped yesterday but today was one of those “it’ll be fine some day” type of days talked about earlier.

    Nobody is going to play there because they are closed. But, some day they will be open. And by then it’ll be too late to enjoy the ride.

    #2615 69 days ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    And the guy who normally sits next to me at work. We are both working from home now, but Skype about stuff a little every day. He was looking at that the day before it popped, so maybe Friday? It jumped yesterday when everything was down and then again today when everything was up. Don’t know why it popped yesterday but today was one of those “it’ll be fine some day” type of days talked about earlier.
    Nobody is going to play there because they are closed. But, some day they will be open. And by then it’ll be too late to enjoy the ride.

    I got in at 7.48, we will see how she goes!

    #2616 69 days ago

    this worries me about dave and busters,
    debt of $640.4 million, and current liabilities outnumber current assets by about 4 to 1.

    #2617 69 days ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    While not as outrageous as Bezos begging for humanitarian donations for his poverty-wage employees, my favourite brazen request for government money has to be from Hobby Lobby. (The company that was bizarrely found trafficking in ancient Iraq artifacts)

    Where is your source?

    #2618 69 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Found one about the trafficking in ancient artifacts. But it is behind a paywall so complete article is not available. No luck finding anything Hobby Lobby going for govt. money.
    https://fortune.com/2015/10/27/hobby-lobby-investigation-artifacts/

    Apologies, I confused Hobby Lobby with another company. Hobby Lobby are the ones that received a vision from God to stay open, despite the pandemic. https://twitter.com/kendallybrown/status/1241519413486129156 (link is a letter from the CEO)

    But them trafficking Middle Eastern artifacts is very real (no paywall): https://www.foxnews.com/science/us-to-return-thousands-of-artifacts-seized-from-hobby-lobby-to-iraq

    #2619 69 days ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    Apologies, I confused Hobby Lobby with another company. Hobby Lobby are the ones that received a vision from God to stay open, despite the pandemic. https://twitter.com/kendallybrown/status/1241519413486129156 (link is a letter from the CEO)
    But them trafficking Middle Eastern artifacts is very real (no paywall): https://www.foxnews.com/science/us-to-return-thousands-of-artifacts-seized-from-hobby-lobby-to-iraq

    This company sounds a lot like "do as I say, not as I do".

    #2620 69 days ago

    I'm looking to ride the wave on Easter Sunday 2020.

    Will the Market start rising on Friday or will it wait until Monday to really start taking off?

    (edited)

    #2621 69 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    That's playing with fire. Those 3x leveraged ETFs are all guaranteed to go to 0 on a long enough timeline.

    When I looked up the split history for OILU, it didn't seem to have the standard stock split history of other securities such as UVXY, etc. Lesson learned. Luckily I made some good moves to offset this loss.

    #2622 69 days ago

    stimulus deal reached.. futures negative at the moment.. hmm.

    #2623 69 days ago
    Quoted from sd_tom:

    stimulus deal reached.. futures negative at the moment.. hmm.

    That is just for the Senate. Has not gone through the house yet. People expect the deal to go through but it will be curious to see what the House tries to hang on it.

    #2624 69 days ago
    Quoted from DBLM:

    That is just for the Senate. Has not gone through the house yet. People expect the deal to go through but it will be curious to see what the House tries to hang on it.

    whoops... didn't read into/past the headline this am

    #2625 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Absolutely. Leveraged ETFs are typically day trading vehicles or used as hedges. They decay over time due to re-balancing and other factors. They trick people as well, as their charts are completely inaccurate long term because they drop to almost nothing again, then they split into big numbers and decay to almost nothing.. rinse/repeat. Likely OILU will split here soon because of how low it has gone.
    Example, TVIXs split history:
    TVIX Split History Table
    Date Ratio
    12/21/2012 1 for 10
    08/30/2013 1 for 10
    06/23/2015 1 for 10
    08/09/2016 1 for 25
    03/16/2017 1 for 10
    06/08/2018 1 for 10
    12/02/2019 1 for 10
    2X and 3X ETFs are NEVER a good idea to invest in long term. Get in, get out win or lose.

    I did a visual comparison with an ETF called TZA. It is a bearish fund that "tracks" the Russel 2000. The time decay is tremendous.

    The top chart is of the Russel 2000. The bottom is TZA itself. These charts start in 2016. You can see the Russel 2K has given up all of its gains, while TZA has barely recovered. I think one could do this with any of these ETFs and get the same result. A better name for them might be "pick pocket".

    Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 9.34.27 AM (resized).png

    #2626 69 days ago

    Well, this morning rally had faded fast.

    What is next for The Fed? The powers that be must be pulling their hair out.

    #2627 69 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Well, this morning rally had faded fast.
    What is next for The Fed? The powers that be must be pulling their hair out.

    Does it really matter? 20-21k is not bad if it holds these levels.

    #2628 69 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Well, this morning rally had faded fast.
    What is next for The Fed? The powers that be must be pulling their hair out.

    guessing that's why people started floating a reopening date of easter.. to give something for markets to latch on to... that is a big gamble though. My office started WFH on the 12th.. as did much of san diego (maybe not till the following week). So, california might have 'bent the curve' by easter but.. the areas that were behind the curve / still haven't taken it seriously .. easter may not be looking too good.

    #2629 69 days ago
    Quoted from sd_tom:

    guessing that's why people started floating a reopening date of easter.. to give something for markets to latch on to... that is a big gamble though. My office started WFH on the 12th.. as did much of san diego (maybe not till the following week). So, california might have 'bent the curve' by easter but.. the areas that were behind the curve / still haven't taken it seriously .. easter may not be looking too good.

    Good theory. Talk about Easter as the money starts flowing. I had not thought that timing.

    #2630 69 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    The powers that be must be pulling their hair out.

    Naw, just combing it over.

    -1
    #2631 69 days ago

    Yep....time to jump in.....apple, disney, boeing and tesla....

    #2632 69 days ago

    no concerns about tomorrow's jobs report?

    #2633 69 days ago
    Quoted from sbmania:

    no concerns about tomorrow's jobs report?

    Isn't it basically priced in now? I think everyone in the market knows that unemployment has skyrocketed...

    #2634 69 days ago

    A morning fizzle followed by a later morning ramp up. Boeing is up $40.00. Lot of points there.

    #2635 69 days ago

    Sold my 4 GME 4/17 $6 calls. Bought a few weeks ago for .045 and sold today for .20.

    Turned that $20 into $80 for a sweet 4-bagger.

    #2636 69 days ago

    Dow is close to my first resistance level at Dow 22K, I just sold every stock I bought this week for 40-75% profits. Sold half my BA @ $173 today, half my AAPL @ $254 and holding only those for now.

    Expecting a big pullback once ugly unemployment numbers hit tomorrow.

    It's not totally out of the cards to see Dow 18K again by next week.

    Now, if we rally on jobs numbers and close over 22K, a move to 23-23.5Kish could happen but unlikely.

    I bought VXX Calls right now betting on more volatility to come.

    #2637 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Dow is close to my first resistance level at Dow 22K, I just sold every stock I bought this week for 40-75% profits. Sold half my BA @ $173 today, half my AAPL @ $254 and holding only those for now.
    Expecting a big pullback once ugly unemployment numbers hit tomorrow.
    It's not totally out of the cards to see Dow 18K again by next week.
    Now, if we rally on jobs numbers and close over 22K, a move to 23-23.5Kish could happen but unlikely.
    I bought VXX Calls right now betting on more volatility to come.

    I was just about to come in and ask what people think will happen with the jobless numbers tomorrow.

    #2638 69 days ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    I was just about to come in and ask what people think will happen with the jobless numbers tomorrow.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see some move to try and conceal those numbers tomorrow.. which wouldn't be good either.. we'll see. I don't see any of this ending up putting us on a long term bear market like 2008, but as a trader (and not necessarily an investor) my views can change rapidly. Right now that's how I feel.

    #2639 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    Dow is close to my first resistance level at Dow 22K, I just sold every stock I bought this week for 40-75% profits. Sold half my BA @ $173 today, half my AAPL @ $254 and holding only those for now.
    Expecting a big pullback once ugly unemployment numbers hit tomorrow.
    It's not totally out of the cards to see Dow 18K again by next week.
    Now, if we rally on jobs numbers and close over 22K, a move to 23-23.5Kish could happen but unlikely.
    I bought VXX Calls right now betting on more volatility to come.

    How does VXX react to the market? I’ve messed around with tqqq and sqqq

    #2640 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see some move to try and conceal those numbers tomorrow.. which wouldn't be good either.. we'll see. I don't see any of this ending up putting us on a long term bear market like 2008, but as a trader (and not necessarily an investor) my views can change rapidly. Right now that's how I feel.

    I’m looking to average down something I got into within the last few weeks. It’s recovered a little bit but is still red for me. I am not concerned about it long term so buying today would be fine. But if I can get a few more shares on a dip I’d take that too.

    #2641 69 days ago
    Quoted from kpg:

    I wouldn't be surprised to see some move to try and conceal those numbers tomorrow.. which wouldn't be good either.. we'll see. I don't see any of this ending up putting us on a long term bear market like 2008, but as a trader (and not necessarily an investor) my views can change rapidly. Right now that's how I feel.

    Just talked to my guy and he echoed what you said that this is a traders market right now. He thinks the numbers tomorrow are priced in but does not think that this upper motion lasts, and that we will probably start heading down some. We shall see. I don't think anything has fundamentally changed from a long-term perspective in the past two days market wise.

    #2642 68 days ago

    Congrats to anyone who's played the last two days. I've not been brave enough, or had enough time to dedicate to endlessly watching them.

    #2643 68 days ago

    This is something I check every morning to see what the previous day looked like. As testing ramped up over the last week we saw numbers really climb fast. I think this is as close to real numbers that we are going to get compared to light numbers 2+ weeks ago.

    Look at the difference between yesterday and 2 days ago and compare that with the few days prior to that. It’s a smaller increase. It’s an increase but once that goes flat and then declines I will be a lot more comfortable.

    With NY doing testing of drugs hopefully that will cut the time it takes people to recover and hopefully helps reduce the rate it spreads.

    78D2DF78-D9AC-4B37-A3BD-BB5AF48D29B3 (resized).jpeg
    #2644 68 days ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    This is something I check every morning to see what the previous day looked like. As testing ramped up over the last week we saw numbers really climb fast. I think this is as close to real numbers that we are going to get compared to light numbers 2+ weeks ago.
    Look at the difference between yesterday and 2 days ago and compare that with the few days prior to that. It’s a smaller increase. It’s an increase but once that goes flat and then declines I will be a lot more comfortable.
    With NY doing testing of drugs hopefully that will cut the time it takes people to recover and hopefully helps reduce the rate it spreads.[quoted image]

    Without knowing how many and who were tested the numbers are meaningless. Any day to day difference is just a guess from our perspective. For all we know they ran out of tests in a specifically hard hit area.

    #2645 68 days ago

    Going to throw this out there for you guys with a long term vision.. and if willing to play on the higher risk side for a potential higher reward.

    I nibbled on some of this at $3.45 today, do your own due diligence and see if this is something you guys see value in long-term. I just stored it in my Roth IRA for the future myself.

    ARCO

    Arcos Dorados Holdings
    4.06% annual dividend (although current market conditions may change this)

    Here's from their Wikipedia:

    Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. is McDonald’s largest franchisee in the world in terms of systemwide sales and number of restaurants.[3] As of December 31, 2010, it represented 6.7% of McDonald's franchised restaurants globally.[4] As the largest operator of McDonald's restaurants in Latin America and the Caribbean, it has more than 94,000 employees, being one of the region's leading employers of young, first-time job holders. It serves more than 4.3 million customers daily and is the largest quick service restaurant (QSR) chain in Latin America and the Caribbean.[3]

    The company operates its McDonald’s-branded restaurants as company-operated restaurants and franchised restaurants.[4] Company revenues depend on sales made by company-operated restaurants and rental income from franchised restaurants. The rental income depends on the greater of a flat fee or a percentage of sales.[4]

    Capture.JPG
    #2646 68 days ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    This is something I check every morning to see what the previous day looked like. As testing ramped up over the last week we saw numbers really climb fast. I think this is as close to real numbers that we are going to get compared to light numbers 2+ weeks ago.
    Look at the difference between yesterday and 2 days ago and compare that with the few days prior to that. It’s a smaller increase. It’s an increase but once that goes flat and then declines I will be a lot more comfortable.
    With NY doing testing of drugs hopefully that will cut the time it takes people to recover and hopefully helps reduce the rate it spreads.[quoted image]

    America is still on a pace to top Italy according to these numbers, and that combined with poor test availability and the recent March Break fiascos, I still think today's optimism is a bubble.
    As always, I really want to be wrong here, as we're talking lives, not just numbers.

    IMG_20200325_104855 (resized).jpg
    #2647 68 days ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    America is still on a pace to top Italy according to these numbers, and that combined with poor test availability and the recent March Break fiascos, I still think today's optimism is a bubble.
    As always, I really want to be wrong here, as we're talking lives, not just numbers.[quoted image]

    The US has 6 times the population of Italy

    https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/verify/verify-us-vs-italy-coronavirus-graphs-leave-out-important-context/507-2a93506b-1d8d-4424-a170-a034c9f3dc2c

    I agree the last couple days are a bubble, just trading for now.

    #2648 68 days ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    America is still on a pace to top Italy according to these numbers, and that combined with poor test availability and the recent March Break fiascos, I still think today's optimism is a bubble.
    As always, I really want to be wrong here, as we're talking lives, not just numbers.[quoted image]

    The one that is causing me concern is Mexico. El Presidente thinks the virus is BS. Goes around hugging and shaking hands. They have no test kits. To me, it looks like and accident waiting to happen. Right now the numbers are low, but with no testing you are shooting in the dark.

    #2649 68 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    The one that is causing me concern is Mexico. El Presidente thinks the virus is BS. Goes around hugging and shaking hands. They have no test kits. To me, it looks like and accident waiting to happen. Right now the numbers are low, but with no testing you are shooting in the dark.

    I haven't seen that from Mexico, but I have seen Bolsanaro express the same sentiment in Brazil, with a vigorous thrust at trying to keep people working and the economy humming, all the while claiming it to be a media hoax.

    Quoted from PokerJake:

    The US has 6 times the population of Italy

    this thread addresses the instinct to try adjust numbers per-capita, and how it's more useful for non-transmissible stats, but less useful for exogenous data sets, which are better understood as outbreaks: https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1242904596856614912?s=09
    It will be interesting to look back and try and understand the impact of America's largest outbreak being in the home of American finance!

    EDIT: for fairness, I wanted to add that the guy who I linked to above is also the same data-analyst who produces that chart I linked above, and he's from the Financial Times

    #2650 68 days ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    I haven't seen that from Mexico, but I have seen Bolsanaro express the same sentiment in Brazil, with a vigorous thrust at trying to keep people working and the economy humming, all the while claiming it to be a media hoax.

    Here you go. The stewardess is very pretty and sounds like an airhead. It is 2 weeks old so maybe Mexico has changed.

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