(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #2451 3 months ago

    It will go nowhere. We just had this same issue not that long ago with Equifax. Very hard to prove. The only way anything happens is if the optics on it and public opinion is so focused that they have no other choice. If it had ONLY been one party, maybe, but it was both apparently. This is something that only impacts the little guy, not the bigwigs with money...

    #2452 3 months ago

    " As Dow wipes out over 3 years of stock-market gains, here’s a warning about calling the bottom."

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-dow-wipes-out-over-3-years-of-stock-market-gains-heres-a-warning-about-calling-the-bottom-2020-03-21?mod=home-page

    "First, let’s acknowledge that none of us can predict when the market will bottom,” said Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, in a Friday note...

    " In fact, for Wall Street professionals, warned Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, the temptation to make a bold market-bottom call carries serious career risk...

    “ Over my plus-30-year Wall Street career I have seen more friends fired or lose clients because they tried to pick a bottom than any other single cause,” he said, in a Friday note...

    " That means there “unfortunately does not exist a magic chart, table or bullet point that will answer all questions, let alone illustrate the bottom or foretell the recovery in stocks that WILL follow this,” Belski said. “Regrettably, a less negative and hopefully POSITIVE stream of headlines on coronavirus (COVID19 virus) is most likely the only acceptable antidote the stock market is yearning for right now.”
    =======================================

    #2453 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    " As Dow wipes out over 3 years of stock-market gains, here’s a warning about calling the bottom."
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-dow-wipes-out-over-3-years-of-stock-market-gains-heres-a-warning-about-calling-the-bottom-2020-03-21?mod=home-page
    "First, let’s acknowledge that none of us can predict when the market will bottom,” said Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, in a Friday note...
    " In fact, for Wall Street professionals, warned Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, the temptation to make a bold market-bottom call carries serious career risk...
    “ Over my plus-30-year Wall Street career I have seen more friends fired or lose clients because they tried to pick a bottom than any other single cause,” he said, in a Friday note...
    " That means there “unfortunately does not exist a magic chart, table or bullet point that will answer all questions, let alone illustrate the bottom or foretell the recovery in stocks that WILL follow this,” Belski said. “Regrettably, a less negative and hopefully POSITIVE stream of headlines on coronavirus (COVID19 virus) is most likely the only acceptable antidote the stock market is yearning for right now.”
    =======================================

    I'm not looking for a bottom really, just looking for a 3-4 days of upside, just like I would normally. The problem I see right now is that with the whiplash, you might miss out on a lot of upside doing this...

    #2454 3 months ago

    Anyone else get excited when they see the heartbeat graph for this thread and then realize it's for a thread and not a stock or market?

    #2455 3 months ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    why would gold matter if the world economy crumbles?

    You can make shiny jewelry with it.

    #2456 3 months ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    Gold and precious metals are a hedge against runaway inflation and easily accepted as currency.

    Try buying groceries with gold.

    #2457 3 months ago

    Personally, I don't think that the representatives from either side are guilty of insider trading in this case. China was already in trouble at that point, not like we didn't know there was an epidemic there and that there were cases elsewhere...it's just that people chose to ignore it. I'm sure there are articles out there dated well before they sold stock stating how bad of a virus it was.

    #2458 3 months ago
    Quoted from mattosborn:

    Try buying groceries with gold.

    May come back to that.

    #2459 3 months ago

    With all of the money the govt. is going have to print, it seems that inflation has to be an issue somewhere in all of this. Or if the economy is in the the dumper will inflation even be a consideration? Or is deflation the one one that will hammer us?

    I have heard it said this if you think inflation is bad, wait until deflation comes on.

    If inflation is the next thing then interest rates will have to go up, a la Paul Volker?

    Thoughts on economic direction? Especially interest rates?

    #2460 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    With all of the money the govt. is going have to print, it seems that inflation has to be an issue somewhere in all of this.

    Yes, the prices of new goods is bound to go up, but in the meantime, people will be having fire sales on their used goods as more and more people get unemployed and need the money to pay for the more essential things in life.

    #2461 3 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Personally, I don't think that the representatives from either side are guilty of insider trading in this case. China was already in trouble at that point, not like we didn't know there was an epidemic there and that there were cases elsewhere...it's just that people chose to ignore it. I'm sure there are articles out there dated well before they sold stock stating how bad of a virus it was.

    Indeed - I remember reading a lot early February - it was clear to me the virus would spread eventually and that it would negatively affect the economy.

    I was wrong on the vector though - I imagined it would first blossom in a lower-income Asian or African country with bad healthcare and no monitoring, then travel to Europe and America. My timing was wrong and this intermediate vector was not necessary. I was also wrong on the severity... I knew it would negatively impact business, I had no idea it would be so bad.

    #2462 3 months ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Personally, I don't think that the representatives from either side are guilty of insider trading in this case. China was already in trouble at that point, not like we didn't know there was an epidemic there and that there were cases elsewhere...it's just that people chose to ignore it. I'm sure there are articles out there dated well before they sold stock stating how bad of a virus it was.

    Yeah, I'd have to agree that's probably good enough to classify as "plausible deniability".

    Kind of interesting they were saying one thing with their Tweets/articles/speeches and another with their investment portfolios.

    Loeffler and Burr sit on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, which held a briefing on January 24 for senators to learn about what the panel described as the "emerging public health threat" posed by the coronavirus. In the days after the briefing, Loeffler publicly downplayed the risks to public health from the virus.

    "Democrats have dangerously and intentionally misled the American people on #Coronavirus readiness," she wrote in a tweet on February 28, two days after her husband's first ICE stock sales. "Here's the truth: @realDonaldTrump & his administration are doing a great job working to keep Americans healthy & safe."

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nyse-jeffrey-c-sprecher-kelly-loeffler-sold-company-stock-ahead-of-coronavirus-market-meltdown/

    #2463 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    With all of the money the govt. is going have to print, it seems that inflation has to be an issue somewhere in all of this. Or if the economy is in the the dumper will inflation even be a consideration? Or is deflation the one one that will hammer us?
    I have heard it said this if you think inflation is bad, wait until deflation comes on.
    If inflation is the next thing then interest rates will have to go up, a la Paul Volker?
    Thoughts on economic direction? Especially interest rates?

    We very easily could be headed to a few years of deflation and higher interest rates.
    Here is an article about how things went in the early 1930’s.
    https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/dep1929.htm

    #2464 3 months ago

    If 4 Trillion bones can't bump this baby up, can anything?

    #2465 3 months ago
    Quoted from BobSacamano:

    If 4 Trillion bones can't bump this baby up, can anything?

    A vaccine...which...isn't likely anytime soon. To a lesser extent cures, which seems to be on a possibly shorter timeline.

    #2466 3 months ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    A vaccine...which...isn't likely anytime soon. To a lesser extent cures, which seems to be on a possibly shorter timeline.

    Anything to reduce/ease the symptoms would alleviate a ton in this crisis.

    #2467 3 months ago

    To actually answer the question though. I think approaching it from a throw money at it aspect will be a very short term fix. It assumes this will be over in 1 month. They can't keep doing this every month if it goes longer. We need to rethink how we handle economic situations.

    #2468 3 months ago

    Futures hit limit down at the moment.

    #2469 3 months ago

    Interesting times and good points in this thread.

    I have a 401k thru my work which tanked but im looking to throw some cash(10k) i have sitting at some stocks.

    I transfered it into fidelity but havnt pulled the trigger on anything yet cause like everyone else im trying to time it right.

    My first thoughts were companies with alot of financial backing to make it thru all this and a dividend would also be nice.

    Any suggestions?

    #2470 3 months ago
    Quoted from Redeyes:

    Interesting times and good points in this thread.
    I have a 401k thru my work which tanked but im looking to throw some cash i have sitting at some stocks.
    I transfered it into fidelity but havnt pulled the trigger on anything yet cause like everyone else im trying to time it right.
    My first thoughts were companies with alot of financial backing to make it thru all this and a dividend would also be nice.
    Any suggestions?

    I’ve always had bad luck picking individual stocks (looking at you DAL). I’m personally waiting for a few weeks of consecutive gains. I don’t think we’re going up as fast as we went down.

    #2472 3 months ago

    Asian market gets hammered and our futures max out down if that is any indicator of what's in store tomorrow.

    #2473 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Thank you. I thought insider trading was part of her game.
    https://biography.yourdictionary.com/articles/why-did-martha-stewart-go-to-jail.html
    "Martha Stewart was not convicted for criminal insider trading charges,"

    oh she absolutely did insider trading, but she's not "guilty" of it according to the letter of the law. Our society is filled with sociopathic capitalistic predators scooping up profit off whatever they can technically get away with. Generally it depends on the willingness of a prosecutor to follow through on the fine points, and to bypass the culprits rich + well placed friends and their influence who work to make such accusations disappear. The permissiveness of white collar crime is a goddamn shame.

    #2474 3 months ago

    Oil will only go up once the world mobilizes again. The only question is, at what point does it hit bottom?

    #2475 3 months ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    Asian market gets hammered and our futures max out down if that is any indicator of what's in store tomorrow.

    Well this doesn't help:

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-futures-tumbles-as-stock-market-waits-for-senate-to-pass-carnivorous-aid-package-51584915365?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

    #2476 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I have heard it said this if you think inflation is bad, wait until deflation comes on.
    If inflation is the next thing then interest rates will have to go up, a la Paul Volker?
    Thoughts on economic direction? Especially interest rates?

    Deflation wins because years of low interest rates, really a generation of interest rates that were too low, caused everyone to get into huge amounts of debt. This is why the fed has opened swap lines with all major central banks with basically unlimited funding. There quite frankly isn’t enough dollars to fill the massive chasm of debt we’ve built and as economic conditions deteriorate the dollar rises in value because incomes to pay those debts dry up.

    The fed can and will print and swap and loan money but it won’t make it into the hands of consumers and small businesses so those people go broke adding to the pile of uncollected debt. Even when/if congress gives away money, it will go to existing payments or debt repayment. When shit looks this dicey no one will spend or invest, they’ll save or pay down, because their paychecks might be in jeopardy in the near future. So even though the fed can magic money into existence, the transmission mechanism for that money to affect the economy is broken.

    People like to imagine runaway inflation. Last time it happened to a modern, big economy was Weirmar Germany. The problem there is they owed external balance of payments due in hard currency equivalents, so they inflated local currency to attempt to keep their transactional economy going while paying real value to France and England. The disparity lead to runaway inflation.

    That’s not going to happen in the USA. With no external payments due we have inflation when the economy is running hot. We’ve already had our inflation; it is visible in home prices, college tuition prices, healthcare prices... more fed action isn’t going to help those but it won’t rapidly turn our dollars into toilet paper.

    #2478 3 months ago

    This happened during the housing bubble. TARP (the bailout of banks) originally didn’t pass the first vote, and the market threw a huge hissy fit and spooked the holdouts (who were principled about the reasons not to vote, because the banks didn’t have to give up shit)

    The markets will fall until it’s clear someone’s doing something to help (even if that something is shortsighted or bound to fail)

    #2479 3 months ago

    Futures market:
    Dow -847.00 / -4.45%
    Level 18,193.00

    another steep opening coming up. Will we see sub-18k tomorrow?

    Quoted from o-din:

    Oil will only go up once the world mobilizes again. The only question is, at what point does it hit bottom?

    What do you mean? how is Saudi Arabia and Russia handling their business?

    #2480 3 months ago
    Quoted from swampfire:

    I’ve always had bad luck picking individual stocks (looking at you DAL). I’m personally waiting for a few weeks of consecutive gains. I don’t think we’re going up as fast as we went down.

    VTI which is the index version basically of VTSAX; minimum $3k to invest. VTSAX contains 3600 companies and dividends. If it fails, we have bigger problems on our hands...

    #2481 3 months ago

    It's painful to look at portfolio's at the moment, but I keep telling myself it's an unrealized loss. As tempting as it is to throw cash at the market, it's not a prudent strategy. Doing my best to stay the course. Scheduled monthly purchases, maxing out 401K's and IRA contributions at regular intervals.

    #2482 3 months ago

    If the market keeps going down then the 5% trigger will be smaller. Eventually, the 5% trigger will not be a heart stopping move.

    Sub 18K tomorrow. Since it is play money for me, Yes.

    #2483 3 months ago

    Congress didn't get enough votes for the next step of the stimulus package. I'm sure the market will go bonkers over that.

    #2484 3 months ago

    As it always happens, super rich guys with tons of available cash assets will get even richer when they buy depressed assets. This will lead to further wealth consolidation.

    #2485 3 months ago
    Quoted from AliciaC:

    VTI which is the index version basically of VTSAX; minimum $3k to invest. VTSAX contains 3600 companies and dividends. If it fails, we have bigger problems on our hands...

    I love Vanguard index funds. About a fourth of my money is (was) in VFIAX and VDIGX.

    -6
    #2486 3 months ago
    #2487 3 months ago

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    It would not matter. They could sign the bill and it would not matter.

    " US cases top 32,000 as New York governor estimates 40% to 80% of state will get coronavirus.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/health/us-coronavirus-wrap-sunday/index.html
    ================================================

    At least 400 people have died due to the novel coronavirus in the United States, another grim milestone as the number of US cases topped 32,000 on Sunday.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/health/us-coronavirus-wrap-sunday/index.html
    ======================================================

    All we have heard it that it is under control. The markets know it is not under control.
    ------------------------------------------------

    Asian markets fall, led by plunge from Australian stocks

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-fall-led-by-plunge-from-australian-stocks-2020-03-22?mod=home-page

    16
    #2488 3 months ago

    This is not like 2008 in a good way. Banks are not depressed and needing a bailout. This is fear, panic and lack of leadership driving uncertainty. Not political, but fact. If the president went up to the podium tomorrow and said, "I take responsibility for the economy and I won't let it fail" followed by a list of steps that will be taken to shore up the economy, the market would go bonkers. Lack of leadership always freaks out investors, regardless of party.

    Rather we have daily briefings blaming others, puffery and outright fibs. Investors are smart enough to see through poor leadership and that's a contributing factor to current market declines.

    #2489 3 months ago
    Quoted from AliciaC:

    Investors are smart enough to see through poor leadership and that's a contributing factor to current market declines.

    I thought this too...but somehow we had 3 very good years for reasons I've never been able to completely describe other than blind optimism.

    #2490 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    It would not matter. They could sign the bill and it would not matter.
    " US cases top 32,000 as New York governor estimates 40% to 80% of state will get coronavirus.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/health/us-coronavirus-wrap-sunday/index.html
    ================================================
    At least 400 people have died due to the novel coronavirus in the United States, another grim milestone as the number of US cases topped 32,000 on Sunday.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/health/us-coronavirus-wrap-sunday/index.html
    ======================================================
    All we have heard it that it is under control. The markets know it is not under control.
    ------------------------------------------------
    Asian markets fall, led by plunge from Australian stocks
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/asian-markets-fall-led-by-plunge-from-australian-stocks-2020-03-22?mod=home-page

    These are all facts, but as we all know, data can be manipulated by your media source to produce a desirable result. You get higher ratings with these types of headlines.

    Would be more beneficial for news outlets to spend time on why it's important to stay indoors and how your role impacts other. Living in CA, we are on lockdown and idiots flock to beaches and congregate. Not following social direction creates panic as investors view the little leadership that's being provided on the state level as ineffective.

    One things for sure, we are all in this together and I'm thankful for this community and friendships forged over the years.

    #2491 3 months ago
    Quoted from cait001:

    What do you mean? how is Saudi Arabia and Russia handling their business?

    I'd imagine they are not flying jets around the world to quarantined countries at the moment. That takes a lot of fuel.

    Point is, I think the USA is the biggest user of fossil fuels, but I could be wrong.

    #2492 3 months ago

    Even with the best leadership imaginable, uncertainty would be driving the markets down and keeping them there. Nobody, not even our best scientists and doctors, know how this will play out. Barring a miracle, this uncertainty is going to be with us for at least 6-12 months.

    #2493 3 months ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    I'd imagine they are not flying jets around the world to quarantined countries at the moment. That takes a lot of fuel.
    Point is, I think the USA is the biggest user of fossil fuels, but I could be wrong.

    O-din, I think you are aware that Saudi Arabia told Russia to take a hike and turned on its taps to get back market share. Both Russia and SA want to drive a stake into the U.S. shale oil fracking biz.

    #2494 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    O-din, I think you are aware that Saudi Arabia told Russia to take a hike and turned on its taps to get back market share. Both Russia and SAS want to drive a stake into the U.S. shale oil fracking biz.

    No, I wasn't aware of that.

    Only that the world is using much less fuel at the moment than it was a few months ago and I figured that's why the price is dropping so fast.

    #2495 3 months ago
    Quoted from robotron911:

    As it always happens, super rich guys with tons of available cash assets will get even richer when they buy depressed assets. This will lead to further wealth consolidation.

    I'm looking to do the same thing, just on a smaller scale. Market, keep on going down

    #2496 3 months ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    O-din, I think you are aware that Saudi Arabia told Russia to take a hike and turned on its taps to get back market share. Both Russia and SAS want to drive a stake into the U.S. shale oil fracking biz.

    Forget cruise ships, I hope USA shale oil fracking can keep getting bailed out, so Saudi Arabia will keep the taps on high and we can have cheap gas.

    #2497 3 months ago
    Quoted from o-din:

    No, I wasn't aware of that.
    Only that the world is using much less fuel at the moment than it was a few months ago and I figured that's why the price is dropping so fast.

    SA wanted Russia to help with propping up crude price by cutting production. Putin said "No". Putin does not want to give up any more market share in the world markets to US shale oil. And he knows US shale producers in heavy dept.

    Putin's move torques SA off so SA announced an increase in its production in order to gain market share. Prices dropped with no demand in our current virus market. Low crude prices are the result. And only SA knows how much pain it can take by giving the stuff away. As I said in another post, SA showed the world who is boss.

    #2498 3 months ago
    Quoted from JohnnyPinball007:

    Forget cruise ships, I hope USA shale oil fracking can keep getting bailed out, so Saudi Arabia will keep the taps on high and we can have cheap gas.

    "At least 30 cruise ships are at sea right now."

    https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cruise-ship-passengers-stranded-coronavirus/index.html

    #2499 3 months ago

    This is the statement as to why they failed it. Without seeing it, assuming its true, I'd say this is a valid reason. I don't trust the corps to do what is right.

    "Schumer insisted the bill falls well short of sufficiently protecting US employees, millions of whom are at risk of losing their jobs as the economy grinds to a halt, while offering a "large corporate bailout with no protections for workers and virtually no oversight.""

    #2500 3 months ago
    Quoted from mbwalker:

    Congress didn't get enough votes for the next step of the stimulus package. I'm sure the market will go bonkers over that.

    Yes the entire market will tank tomorrow. Estimate a huge sell off in the am.
    Hang in there!

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