Some people here are asking when it is time to buy. I have no clue when it time to buy. But looking at historical charts might give to some idea for good entry points.
( Here comes the disclaimers: No chart will you what will happen beyond the present. They are not crystal balls. And like that TV show a fews back, they are not Tomorrow's News Today. We can only wish. When you look at a chart and you see where a bottom or top formed, it is so easy to say, "look see here, if you would have bought. That is hind site and it includes the word "if". When you are looking at the Hard Right Edge all you can do is hope what happened 5 years ago happens again. Maybe you get lucky. Maybe you don't).
I found a website that has charts of the Dow Jones all the way back. I mean all the way back.
Here is the link. You can take screen shots and enlarge them to see them better if you need.
The first chart starts at 1989 and runs to 2016 and does not show any data for the current administration. That will have to come from some other website.
If you look carefully, the 2008 crash happened late in the move. The long slide started at the top that was formed in 2007. It was not until August/Sept. 2008 that the crash that made the headlines that had our leaders running around like their hair was on fire happened. There were 4-5 more months of downside action. The market finally bottomed in March of 2009. There is a saying that the market climbs a wall of worry. And this is the first time I really saw this kind of action. Once bottom hit in March 2009, it was all up all the way to 2016, everybody was constantly worrying about the bad things in the economy and worrying that the market was going to crash again but the market kept going up.
At the change in presidential administrations in 2016-2017 many thought the market was going to go down. For reasons that cannot be mentioned here, the market kept going up. Until 4 weeks ago. Suffice it to say that the market has given back all of its gains and it is like 2016-2020 never happened.
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The next chart encompasses the years 1960-1990. Over to the right hand side you see a long red free fall line. That was Black Monday, October 19,1987. I was on the road when that happened and missed a lot of it. The catalyst for that 22% drop was something to do with Alan Greenspan and interest rates moving up; I'm fuzzy on the history of it now. But you can see it was over fast. There was the heart stopping one day drop and for the next couple of months the market bounced around before recovering. We were terrified and thought this move would auger in another Great Depression. I knew a guy who was a heavy retail options trader; He took out around $450,000.00 on Black Monday. But he could not shift gears, kept buying puts and with in 30 days he gave all of his winnings back.
Now, go farther to the left. You will see a bottom formation in 1973-1974. You will also see that the slide into the 1974- 1975 bottom actually started in 1972. At this time was a young dumb sailor in the Navy. I was partying hard and having a good time. I knew nothing about economics. I did not get knowledgeable about this market stuff until market crashed in 1973. That was the first oil shock when Saudi Arabia cut off the oil in October 1973. The next few months people were sitting in long gas lines to get maybe 10 gallons of gas. All of the other dumb sailors like me, all of us, were bowled over by this action. Jobs dried up for civilians and we were glad we had the security of a Govt. paycheck every two weeks. People were hurting.
And then for reasons I forget, the market bottomed in 1975. The point is that if you bought the market in 1970 you would have waited until 1972-1973 to break even. and if you did not get out then, you found yourself waiting until 1977 to get close to even. And you did not get a good solid breakout until late 1982 when Henry Kaufman called the bottom ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Kaufman). So, basically, if you bought in 1970 and held, it took you 12 years to get your money back.
Keep in mind that the Saudi Oil Shock is what kicked these substandard years off. Oil prices went up. From 40 cents per gallon to 80 cents per gallon. Minimum wage was $2.00 per hour. Lives were disrupted. Inflation was running rampant because the govt. kept printing money. Lots of it. WE joked about smoking $20.p00 cigars. The economy could not find its footing. We struggled with crappy paying jobs. And then in 1978, houses doubled in price over night. I was looking at houses in 1977 but could not make it happen. In 1979, I was able to buy my house. I had to pay $34,000.00 for something I could have bought for $15,000.00 two years previous.
I almost forgot, that long slow slide in 1976 to the bottom in 1978 was the 2nd Saudi Arabia Oil Shock. This is the oil shock that brought Detroit to its knees. The big Cadillacs and the Lincolns were put on a diet. The cars got smaller. This was the era of what we called Econo-boxes; Small underpowered cars. They were transportation only. Some were like overpowered go-karts and fun to tool around in but generally cars of that era were abysmal.
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I was born in 1952. I can offer little commentary. Look at that top that ended in October 1929. You did not hit bottom until 1932. That's 3 years of you wishing that you did not keep buying stocks all the way down. And if you bought the top in 1929 it took you until 1965 to get your money back. But you had 30 years of inflation to live through so even if you got back to even you lost money in terms of real living i.e. lost buying power.
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And the last chart. This chart also includes the move from the 1929 high into 1940 and just before Pearl Harbor was hit one year later.
On the left you see 1917. The 1918 flu started in the fall of 1918 and did not last too long and then summer came. But you can see the move in 1919 when the flu came back for the 2nd wave that wiped out all of the millions of people. And that slide lasted until 1922.
So, from 1919 to 1922, you had a 3 year wait for the bottom.
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The entire point of this post is to advise some of you that while the charts will not tell you what is going to happen tomorrow, they also suggest, with the exception of 1987, if you are looking for long term buys, that you can probably relax and wait awhile before buying in all at once.
Stagger your buys. Buy 20% now. Maybe 20% later. Or maybe break it down to making your buys 10% of your capital.
Whatever you do, realize that for awhile that you are most likely to see a choppy market more suited to day traders and position players. I predict you will have more time to buy. Lots more.
If this gives anybody some insight to which direction you think you will go, then the time it took to write this up will have been worthwhile for me.
It is to give you a very basic picture of charts. It is not investment advise.