(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    There are 4248 posts in this topic. You are on page 43 of 85.
    #2101 74 days ago

    Looks like I am not the only one thinking this way. From the CNBC article right now about the futures being up 200 points:

    “For now until there is improvement in the trend … it’s tough to consider being long and it’s right to be in Cash on the sidelines,” Mark Newton, managing member at Newton Advisors, said in a note to clients."

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-stock-futures-rise-slightly-following-dows-third-worst-day-ever.html

    #2102 74 days ago
    Quoted from Davidus56:

    I’ve done very well in the market over the years. I’m 70% cash, long gold, Gilead. I sold out of the money Puts on Google, Amazon and Apple today. I believe the DOW could drop to 10,000-15,000. I’m short Tesla, Carvana and Carnival. Frankly I see no scenario where Tesla or Carnival survive.

    Wouldn't some other cash rich company such as Apple buy Tesla if it becomes very cheap? I feel Tesla has a large enough fan base and infrastructure that the name/brand still would have a future even if they can't stay afloat on their own finances. In that scenario the stock could still lose most of its value but I think the brand can survive.

    #2103 74 days ago

    Carnival might get a bailout, but I personally would prefer of the major companies, only essential companies get bailouts such as the major airlines.
    Carnival is a luxury product. The Government can't give money to everything/everyone. The things that affect our daily lives are most important.

    #2104 74 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    Wouldn't some other cash rich company such as Apple buy Tesla if it becomes very cheap? I feel Tesla has a large enough fan base and infrastructure that the name/brand still would have a future even if they can't stay afloat on their own finances. In that scenario the stock could still lose most of its value but I think the brand can survive.

    Why would a cash rich company buy a company hemorrhaging cash and with no real plan for profitability?

    It would be cheaper for Apple to wait for Tesla to file bankruptcy and buy any assets it wanted out of bankruptcy. Then start it’s own car company. But they won’t do that. Apple and others have very little interest in selling big, expensive, long lasting hardware. They’d rather sell small, high margin gadgets like phones and computers; then sell those users ecosystem dependent services like apple’s streaming service, iOS app purchases, software, etc.

    #2105 74 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    Carnival might get a bailout, but I personally would prefer of the major companies, only essential companies get bailouts such as the major airlines.
    Carnival is a luxury product. The Government can't give money to everything/everyone. The things that affect our daily lives are most important.

    There are actually 3 major cruise lines. They provide a lot of jobs. Not just for jobs on the ships, but every port of call employs people in the tourist trade. Choosing who gets a bailout and who does not will be tough. I seriously doubt that Florida will let Carnival go without a big fight. And Florida has 27 electoral votes. That's is political clout.

    https://cruisemarketwatch.com/capacity/

    #2106 74 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    There are actually 3 major cruise lines. They provide a lot of jobs. Not just for jobs on the ships, but every port of call employs people in the tourist trade. Choosing who gets a bailout and who does not will be tough. I seriously doubt that Florida will let Carnival go without a big fight. And Florida has 27 electoral votes. That's is political clout.
    https://cruisemarketwatch.com/capacity/

    What I was trying to imply was that in the cruise industry there would be new companies popping up to replace the bankrupt ones. There certainly will be less demand for cruises for a long time now that people see the bad side of it.

    #2107 74 days ago

    AMZN down 23% since Feb 20. Seems like an unfairly beat up company who's about to have christmaslike earnings:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-to-hire-100-000-warehouse-and-delivery-workers-amid-coronavirus-shutdowns-11584387833

    #2108 74 days ago

    Doesn't the government end up making huge profits from the bailouts? It's not like it's free money they never get back. They made billions in the long run after the financial crisis.

    #2109 74 days ago
    Quoted from Davidus56:

    I’ve done very well in the market over the years. I’m 70% cash, long gold, Gilead. I sold out of the money Puts on Google, Amazon and Apple today. I believe the DOW could drop to 10,000-15,000. I’m short Tesla, Carvana and Carnival. Frankly I see no scenario where Tesla or Carnival survive.

    Yikes, DOW 10,000???? Don’t you think that is a little pessimistic???

    #2110 74 days ago
    Quoted from thedarkknight77:

    Yikes, DOW 10,000???? Don’t you think that is a little pessimistic???

    Why not go all-in on panic and say 5000? The experts expect a couple soft quarters, then the return to earnings growth and an estimate of $175 in earnings for the S&P in 2021. Then the question is what multiple to apply to that? They said if there's a panic premium like in 2009 that makes the multiple 12, that gives you 2100 S&P. Return to 18.5 multiple that we were at a month ago and that gets you back to 3200+.

    #2111 74 days ago

    Thoughts on a good entry point for Apple? $170 was the 52 week low

    #2112 74 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    Why not go all-in on panic and say 5000? The experts expect a couple soft quarters, then the return to earnings growth and an estimate of $175 in earnings for the S&P in 2021. Then the question is what multiple to apply to that? They said if there's a panic premium like in 2009 that makes the multiple 12, that gives you 2100 S&P. Return to 18.5 multiple that we were at a month ago and that gets you back to 3200+.

    The first area of support for the DOW is 16000 points. And it is not all that much support. Especially when you factor in the reasons for the moves from 16000 up to 30000.

    It has been nothing but falling knives since this reversal started. The first area of support was 22K and and that did not hold. There is no level of support until you get to 16K. And the "fundamentals" that helped propel the Dow to dizzying heights no longer exist. No one can call this virus. And no one can see how this will ultimately affect the economy. All that lies ahead is uncertainty. And markets, as we always keep hearing, do not like uncertainty.

    The experts can say all they want, and they always do, but they are not always right.

    Earnings can get whacked. So can dividends.

    I don't know how long it will take or how it is going happen, but there is more downside coming.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-16 at 8.39.52 PM (resized).png
    #2113 74 days ago

    How can I invest in food delivery services?

    #2114 74 days ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    How can I invest in food delivery services?

    Yum Brands (YUM) gives you KFC, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut, Long John Silvers

    https://www.google.com/search?q=what+companies+does+YUM+brands+own&oq=what+companies+does+YUM+brands+own&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.17143j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    (DPZ) gives you Dominos Pizza.

    #2115 74 days ago

    Futures up 700 points and just hit the limits. Wacky damn market. Will be interesting to see what actually happens tomorrow.

    #2117 74 days ago
    Quoted from Concretehardt:

    Thoughts on a good entry point for Apple? $170 was the 52 week low

    Apple’s earnings are not growing as in years past. Plenty of attractive sub$1trillion tech names rising up. Unless they acquire something special.
    Who wants a $1k phone of $2k computer anymore?
    If must, can’t go wrong between $210-230.
    I like twitter. Forced buyback, not impacted by virus, election year..

    #2118 74 days ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    How can I invest in food delivery services?

    Uber

    #2119 74 days ago

    The folks delivering to the quarantined are the same folks delivering to you.

    #2120 74 days ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    How can I invest in food delivery services?

    Dominoes, Papa Johns are two

    #2121 74 days ago
    Quoted from mcluvin:

    The folks delivering to the quarantined are the same folks delivering to you.

    who is going to be first out the gate with premium hazmat delivery service?

    #2122 74 days ago

    The banks have stopped their share repurchase programs. Sounds like they are trying to save the dividends. It may not work.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/investing/bank-stock-buybacks-coronavirus/index.html

    "America's eight biggest biggest banks are slamming the brakes on their aggressive share buyback programs as they promise to preserve capital to get through the coronavirus crisis."

    " The decision reflects a realization that it would look bad for banks to reward shareholders with massive buybacks while simultaneously taking unpopular steps such as foreclosures, pulling credit lines, freezing hiring and laying off workers. And it could be aimed at easing pressure on big banks to cut their dividends.

    #2123 74 days ago

    I still use a old flip phone, with no internet. I have no need for the newer phones, because I like my real size typewriter on my home computer.

    BUT, I see about everyone else, young and old with these smart phones, and makes me think if Apple gets too low, I may need to jump on that stock.

    I mean if I can buy one of those stocks for like 10 bucks in a few weeks, and in 3 years sell it for 300 bucks, that would be ok.

    But for real, I have never purchased stock, only houses, but if this gets too crazy I may consider selling some houses for some stock.

    I hate learning new things anymore, but soon I will Google how to purchase stocks, because even I can see everything is just too crazy, and a damn good time to get ready to buy deals.

    And if more people like me jumped in the market, hell, it would probably be up to 50,000 by late Summer.

    #2124 74 days ago

    Does anyone else have a family member Who has to agree as far as financial market decisions?

    My brother has to agree before anything in a family trust that is professionally managed can be changed.

    I have been trying to get my brother to agree to go to a mostly cash position for over a month now! Literally at the top of the market. I had emailed a lens manufacturer in China who told me all the factories were shut down. I knew that In and of itself would have significant implications. I had the (same) financial advisor liquidate all my own positions about 10 weeks ago, even though I was advised not to, as I needed the money for a feature film I’m creating.... Talk about risk! That is now on hold and I have lots of cash to invest myself at the right time. Just wish I was sophisticated enough to do options likes straddles, strangles, etc. to really benefit from volatility. I know how to sell covered calls from stocks suggested on Bluecollarinvestor but that’s about it.

    Every few days since the The first decline, I tried to get my brother on board with going to cash in the much larger family trust, to no avail. A conference call with the financial advisor yielded the same talking points that convinced my brother I was wrong. “The market has priced in the future poor earnings already, you’ll miss the rebound, oil pricing will resolve itself, gov’t stimulus, You should be buying right now! etc”.

    All the same con as far as I’m concerned... anything to stop you from going to cash which means they don’t earn their percentage.

    I warned every friend over a month ago to readjust their 401K and not a single person listened.

    I’m not planning a very sophisticated buying strategy- probably just cost average some index funds, but a friend who works for Pruden$ial said they have a very healthy dividend (which I think 10% right now). and they did not decline much in 2008 since they mostly lend conservatively to solid companies.

    #2125 74 days ago
    Quoted from sataneatscheese:

    So... 3/12 will be worst dow day of year...

    That quote didn't age well...

    #2126 74 days ago
    Quoted from sataneatscheese:

    That quote didn't age well...

    Don't worry, we are all having those moments. I am sure some of mine won't age well either.

    #2127 74 days ago
    Quoted from Ericpinballfan:

    How can I invest in food delivery services?

    I dont know why you would at thiis point. They are all shitting the bed. I havent been able to do a delivery in over a week.

    #2128 74 days ago
    Quoted from jackd104:

    I don’t follow. All you did was lock in your loss. What’s your strategy from here?

    Not only were losses locked in but much of my holdings are long term and would trigger a huge tax bill

    #2129 74 days ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    Not only were losses locked in but much of my holdings are long term and would trigger a huge tax bill

    This is a confusing statement for me. Losses don't get taxed. A huge tax bill implies huge profits.

    If you are paying taxes then you are profitable, correct?

    And if you are long term you get LT capital gains, correct?

    #2130 74 days ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    Not only were losses locked in but much of my holdings are long term and would trigger a huge tax bill

    I don’t know why I even bother but here is my thesis. The accounts I am looking at are tax deferred and because i had been rotating out of investments the past few months I was in a strong cash position. Where the market is down close to 30% I was down closer to 11%. My bet is that we are going down more than 11% from my exit point yesterday. If that happens, I will make more money on the way back up to recoup my losses faster to my exit point and have a much better base for my positions. This will make me more money quicker and prevents having dead money in the market. If my thesis is wrong, and I decide to buy in sooner, I have only a smaller incremental loss. But, it limits my downside. We shall see.

    #2131 74 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    This is a confusing statement for me. Losses don't get taxed. A huge tax bill implies huge profits.
    If you are paying taxes then you are profitable, correct?
    And if you are long term you get LT capital gains, correct?

    The losses are my MA with a cost of $13.54 a share has a 52 week hi of $347.25 it is now $236 it will bounce back

    #2132 74 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    This is a confusing statement for me. Losses don't get taxed. A huge tax bill implies huge profits.
    If you are paying taxes then you are profitable, correct?
    And if you are long term you get LT capital gains, correct?

    I'm guessing his stock is still profitable but not as much as it used to be.

    I'm in the same boat Long Term Capital Gains = 15% for Feds and 13% for (my) State. So a week ago when the Dow was at 25,000 I contemplated selling out everything in my aftertax account but decided not to when I looked at what I was going to face as a tax bill for next year. My plan was to sell out and slowly buy back in as the market inevitably declined. Just didn't make sense ($100k in profit = $28,000 check!). At this point almost all of my long term holdings are frozen until I can move to a better state and drop to a lower income tax bracket.

    Made total sense with my Retirement savings which is tax deferred.

    #2133 74 days ago

    ^^^Nice plan. Very similar to mine.

    #2134 73 days ago

    Boeing is down another $18.00 to $110.00.

    #2135 73 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Boeing is down another $18.00 to $110.00.

    Can Boeing survive the Max and COVID 19?

    #2136 73 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Boeing is down another $18.00 to $110.00.

    They got down to 101 earlier. I kind of wanted to buy BA 3 months ago, before the virus. Not interested now.

    #2137 73 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Can Boeing survive the Max and COVID 19?

    Good question. It could have survived the 737 Max issue. I think. But both of them? When all of its customers are going broke? Boeing is this country's largest exporter and keeps the trade balance numbers in check.

    It really is a company that is too big to fail. It will be interesting to see how the govt. proceeds with the airline business during this crisis.

    #2138 73 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    Good question. It could have survived the 737 Max issue. I think. But both of them? When all of its customers are going broke? Boeing is this country's largest exporter and keeps the trade balance numbers in check.
    It really is a company that is too big to fail. It will be interesting to see how the govt. proceeds with the airline business during this crisis.

    The government won't let Boeing fail. They are too engrained in our military and they have too many secrets at the end of the day.

    #2139 73 days ago

    The DOW is up 700 points. Here is how that looks on a 5 day chart.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 11.04.18 AM (resized).png

    And a 30 day chart

    Screen Shot 2020-03-17 at 11.04.36 AM (resized).png

    #2140 73 days ago
    Quoted from JodyG:

    The government won't let Boeing fail. They are too engrained in our military and they have too many secrets at the end of the day.

    That is probably true, but Airbus seems to be picking up a lot of contracts lately. Boeing's culture is it's problem, and that takes years to change.

    -2
    #2141 73 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    That is probably true, but Airbus seems to be picking up a lot of contracts lately. Boeing's culture is it's problem, and that takes years to change.

    I have no factual basis for this opinion, but I would not be at all surprised to see Boeing get out of passenger aviation all together for some time period until they can rebuild themselves from the inside. I feel bad for all the employees and the thousands of businesses out there that directly or indirectly supply parts.

    #2142 73 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    That is probably true, but Airbus seems to be picking up a lot of contracts lately. Boeing's culture is it's problem, and that takes years to change.

    I worked for Boeing back in the 80s. In '86 I was promoted to shop supervisor ( team lead was not around then). Airbus was just getting started and its first customer was Pan Am (later went bankrupt) that bought 3 Airbus airliners. Just 3. But it was a toe hold for Airbus to supply a slowly going broke company. The other airline companies now had a chance to see Airbus in action. By now, everybody knows the history. Airbus is serious completion. But at the point in time is was no so readily apparent; To some.

    I had to go to a "new supervisor" training meeting. There was some upper mid-level manager running the meeting. Someone asked him about Airbus and Pan Am. etc. This mid-level idiot proceeded to laugh at the questioner and say that Airbus was no threat to the mighty Boeing; Something to that effect. The point is that Airbus sneaked in and Boeing management was asleep at the switch. Boeing is used to pushing its weight around in the aircraft market place for parts and everything else. The hubris of management finally caught up with it.

    And while Boeing goes to the government with hat in hand, the ousted CEO walked away with a 40 million dollar pay package. And the taxpayers are going to be called on. Stinks.

    #2143 73 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    Can Boeing survive the Max and COVID 19?

    I would take a look at BA when it sinks under $30

    #2144 73 days ago
    Quoted from JodyG:

    I have no factual basis for this opinion, but I would not be at all surprised to see Boeing get out of passenger aviation all together for some time period until they can rebuild themselves from the inside. I feel bad for all the employees and the thousands of businesses out there that directly or indirectly supply parts.

    Getting out of the passenger airline business is not practical. There is not enough military business to keep all of the doors open. And if you shut down an aircraft assembly line it would take forever to fire back up again. All of the experienced shop floor people would be difficult to replace. I can assure you that you would not want to fly on an airplane built by new hires. It takes a lot of skill to put one together--correctly.

    #2145 73 days ago

    Picked up 100 of ABR today. Can get some more if it drops more but wanted to get that first 100. Expecting to get 30-60 more in the next few weeks.

    #2146 73 days ago
    Quoted from cottonm4:

    I worked for Boeing back in the 80s. In '86 I was promoted to shop supervisor ( team lead was not around then). Airbus was just getting started and its first customer was Pan Am (later went bankrupt) that bought 3 Airbus airliners. Just 3. But it was a toe hold for Airbus to supply a slowly going broke company. The other airline companies now had a chance to see Airbus in action. By now, everybody knows the history. Airbus is serious completion. But at the point in time is was no so readily apparent; To some.
    I had to go to a "new supervisor" training meeting. There was some upper mid-level manager running the meeting. Someone asked him about Airbus and Pan Am. etc. This mid-level idiot proceeded to laugh at the questioner and say that Airbus was no threat to the mighty Boeing; Something to that effect. The point is that Airbus sneaked in and Boeing management was asleep at the switch. Boeing is used to pushing its weight around in the aircraft market place for parts and everything else. The hubris of management finally caught up with it.
    And while Boeing goes to the government with hat in hand, the ousted CEO walked away with a 40 million dollar pay package. And the taxpayers are going to be called on. Stinks.

    The WSJ has had a few articles on the issues with Boeing lately. Who knows what is true and what isn't, but it's almarming even if a portion of it is.

    I listened to the President's press conference today. Delayed tax payments, money to every American, big stimulus bill coming, this county is going to go bankrupt if some common sense doesn't kick in.

    #2147 73 days ago
    Quoted from Methos:

    I listened to the President's press conference today. Delayed tax payments, money to every American, big stimulus bill coming, this county is going to go bankrupt if some common sense doesn't kick in.

    There is no limit to the number of IOUs they will write with our kids names on them

    #2148 73 days ago
    Quoted from boscokid:

    There is no limit to the number of IOUs they will write with our kids names on them

    It's sad. Trump is just pushing this mass spending to prop up his polls and increase his chance of re-election. And you're right, we'll be long gone but our kids and their kids will suffer because of these short sighted decisions. I guess if you don't have kids, you might not care as much, but for those of us that do, it's depressing.

    #2149 73 days ago
    Quoted from boscokid:

    There is no limit to the number of IOUs they will write with our kids names on them

    Very true, see SOCIAL SECURITY...

    #2150 73 days ago
    Quoted from Atari_Daze:

    Very true, see SOCIAL SECURITY...

    Railroad retirement was the model for Social Security. Over the years, Social Security has been raided over and over again, to the point that it is currently only funded to 2035. There will be something like a 40% reduction in benefits starting in 2035. Conversely, railroad retirement hasn't been touched, and has funds in it to cover railroad retirees to the year 2095. Pretty sad.

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