(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#21251 31 days ago
Quoted from Nicholastree:

I’m always leery of bubbles. But consider this:
1. Wage growth just out paced CPI inflation. The fundamentals of the US economy seem healthy.
2. A LOT of money has been added to the economy since 2019. One should expect new highs in indexes and solid companies as a result.
3. When bond/interest rates drop making equities more attractive, they will be. And a lot of money currently in bonds will go to the market.
That being said, there are two huge risks:
1. A massive drop in commercial RE market
2. A retail collapse
Both of those are currently struggling but not at full crisis stage yet wherein they drag down the whole economy

I've got three anecdotes on this.

1. I think alot of retail is screwed. I went to buy some calcium for my wife's pool before work last week. Home Depot doesn't carry it anymore. Lowe's sells it for 19.99 a bag, and the local Ace has it for 24.99. This seemed high. I checked online and ordered through Amazon. I got 3 bags for less than the price of 2, and it as waiting for me when I got home from work. Now Lowes/Home Depot will be around for a very long time for some of the stuff they sell (lumber/fixtures/piping) but they can't compete on small stuff on price. Speaking of small stuff... more and more stuff is locked up there due to retail theft when I walk around. Last time I gave up on getting wire from them because I couldn't get a pack of wire without assistance as it was locked up... not just tools.
2. I've got family in commercial real estate, but they got into it in a way in which they are pretty safe. They owned health clubs and the buildings they were in, ended up selling the health club businesses and keeping the strip malls they were in. A health club is an anchor that can't be outsourced the way retail can. They've had good luck with their anchors and have managed to keep their buildings mostly rented out... most recently with charter schools of all things. While retail may be screwed long term... there are still some things that are doing well.

3. What is screwed is office space. I work in tech as a government contractor. 5 years ago, 99% of the folks in my company worked on site. Today around 1/2 the company works remote. This has opened up alot of space. I personally prefer to work on site, but there are less and less desks being filled and when companies go to cut costs and they see half empty buildings... what will be the first thing to go?

#21252 31 days ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Exactly right! Market cap of 400 billion added in 2 days, due to the repeated utterance of the word AI. Did they explain how they will monotize Siri? Is AI-Siri going to bring in 400 billion in the next few quarters? How? This is what irrational exuberance looks like. Invest wisely, and start getting cautious.

Siri doesn't have to bring in 400b. Alphabet pays Apple 20b a year to be their default search engine. That one deal is easily worth 20x or 400b in Apple market cap. Apple's opportunity to distribute AI to 1.5b iPhones, create use cases for AI enabled phones and other devices that power a new replacement cycle over that 2.2b total device user base, and being the data gatekeeper for that user base is worth way more in my opinion.

I used to be an Apple skeptic, but every year now I wish I had bought more.

#21253 31 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

As of today Saudi Arabia says deal is dead.

I wonder how long it will take to unwind all those dollars overseas?

#21254 31 days ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

I've got three anecdotes on this.
1. I think alot of retail is screwed. I went to buy some calcium for my wife's pool before work last week. Home Depot doesn't carry it anymore. Lowe's sells it for 19.99 a bag, and the local Ace has it for 24.99. This seemed high. I checked online and ordered through Amazon. I got 3 bags for less than the price of 2, and it as waiting for me when I got home from work. Now Lowes/Home Depot will be around for a very long time for some of the stuff they sell (lumber/fixtures/piping) but they can't compete on small stuff on price. Speaking of small stuff... more and more stuff is locked up there due to retail theft when I walk around. Last time I gave up on getting wire from them because I couldn't get a pack of wire without assistance as it was locked up... not just tools.
2. I've got family in commercial real estate, but they got into it in a way in which they are pretty safe. They owned health clubs and the buildings they were in, ended up selling the health club businesses and keeping the strip malls they were in. A health club is an anchor that can't be outsourced the way retail can. They've had good luck with their anchors and have managed to keep their buildings mostly rented out... most recently with charter schools of all things. While retail may be screwed long term... there are still some things that are doing well.
3. What is screwed is office space. I work in tech as a government contractor. 5 years ago, 99% of the folks in my company worked on site. Today around 1/2 the company works remote. This has opened up alot of space. I personally prefer to work on site, but there are less and less desks being filled and when companies go to cut costs and they see half empty buildings... what will be the first thing to go?

Its funny because I have had the opposite experience for some things. The latest was HVAC air filters. I have dual zone so need to replace two filters every month. Amazon is like 7 bucks each for a basic MERV 8 filter and if I go to brick and mortar, they are like 4 bucks a piece. The pool stuff though, yeah Amazon is great for the most part. I still frequent my local pool store as they give me decent discounts and help me out a lot.

#21255 31 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

As of today Saudi Arabia says deal is dead.

This happened much faster then was predicted several Months ago. The reverberations will be immense, probably why the story is getting short shrift from MSM.
As far as oil, the US is the largest producer and if we kept it in-house the supply is firm.
However, we use oil to balance deficits all over the World.
Perhaps if we don't talk about it everything will be fine, people won't notice, and deficit spending will make everything good.

#21256 31 days ago
Quoted from BRONX:

I missed out big time on Nvidia. It fell on my lap but I didn't do anything about it. I kept saying it's going to crash(jealous). Who would of guessed $1300/share?

You missed out on the biggest gains, but it's got a long way to keep climbing. I bought more on Tuesday, those shares are already up 6%. I jumped in late for sure, but still have big gains and expect it to keep climbing.

#21257 31 days ago

Nicholastree
Good points, I would also add, potential instability in the U.S.A regional banking sector, perhaps another run for the hills. Can I fkation crawl. Its way back again???

kool1
I understand your point. Yes apple, nvda, etc sales, profits are rosier than ever. But using your 30x pe ratio for apple.... This Siri deal just inflated apple marketcap by $400bil, can this Siri deal at 30x p/e add $13bil in pure profits, year after year with a growth boost every year to justify a hefty 30x p/e ratio??? Seems rosy to me, alot of thing lately are appearing rosy to me

#21258 31 days ago

I don't understand either why Apple would be up so much. No growth, high multiple. I'm sure they'll be fine because of their brand, but without multiple expansion and/or inflation, hard to see the bull case here. Their stock price says they're in high growth, the financials say they've become stagnant.

#21259 31 days ago

I wish I was on the Apple train, but at least I own a bunch through index funds. I think the growth potential is that this deal with ChatGPT won't cost them anything and it will lead them on the path to trying to make Siri work better than Alexa and Cortana. It's a war for the best AI chatbot. This is the future. Y'all may not use it, but I have pretty much everything in my house from my TV, stereo and lights, to heat, to every pinball and arcade game connected through Alexa. I just ask for things turned on and off, set the heat temperature, or what music I want to listen to with voice commands. I'm just waiting for it to get better with asking it questions so I no longer have to Google shit on my phone or laptop.

And Apple making it so only iPhone 15 Pro, 15 Pro Max and iPads or Macs with M1 or later chips can run it will make older Apple devices more obsolete, forcing consumers to upgrade their devices sooner than the normal cycle, which will result in more hardware sales.

#21260 31 days ago

Yall that go in balls deep on stocks are brave. I can't do it. The only one I'm considering is NVidia. It feels like the next Microsoft or Amazon....

Me, I love my index/mutual funds. REITs don't hurt either, especially RITM.

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#21261 31 days ago

You are doing great in those funds! You might want to check out FBGRX, that has been my most profitable Fidelity fund in the past 5 years and has over 12% NVDA in it. I think the best Fidelity fund currently, followed by FSTPX.

#21262 31 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I wish I was on the Apple train, but at least I own a bunch through index funds. I think the growth potential is that this deal with ChatGPT won't cost them anything and it will lead them on the path to trying to make Siri work better than Alexa and Cortana. It's a war for the best AI chatbot. This is the future. Y'all may not use it, but I have pretty much everything in my house from my TV, stereo and lights, to heat, to every pinball and arcade game connected through Alexa. I just ask for things turned on and off, set the heat temperature, or what music I want to listen to with voice commands. I'm just waiting for it to get better with asking it questions so I no longer have to Google shit on my phone or laptop.
And Apple making it so only iPhone 15 Pro, 15 Pro Max and iPads or Macs with M1 or later chips can run it will make older Apple devices more obsolete, forcing consumers to upgrade their devices sooner than the normal cycle, which will result in more hardware sales.

And don't forget Apple will be buying back $110B in shares. There are only 150 companies or so in the S&P that even have a market cap 110B or more. Crazy stuff.

#21263 31 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

You are doing great in those funds! You might want to check out FBGRX, that has been my most profitable Fidelity fund in the past 5 years and has over 12& NVDA in it. I think the best Fidelity fund currently, followed by FSTPX.

Awesome - thank you for the tips! I'll check these out when I get home!

Here's some more my watch list. Started investing in FCNTX, FNILX, and FITLX this month. Love sharing tips and learning from others!!

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#21264 30 days ago
Quoted from BRONX:

I understand your point. Yes apple, nvda, etc sales, profits are rosier than ever. But using your 30x pe ratio for apple.... This Siri deal just inflated apple marketcap by $400bil, can this Siri deal at 30x p/e add $13bil in pure profits, year after year with a growth boost every year to justify a hefty 30x p/e ratio??? Seems rosy to me, alot of thing lately are appearing rosy to me

Quoted from taylor34:

I don't understand either why Apple would be up so much. No growth, high multiple. I'm sure they'll be fine because of their brand, but without multiple expansion and/or inflation, hard to see the bull case here. Their stock price says they're in high growth, the financials say they've become stagnant.

That's what makes a market, lots of skeptics and that's ok. It was a technical buy. Time will tell if it keeps going and if the revenue follows.

I don't usually trade Apple - I just hold and trim over time. I have had for 10 years, most clients also. It's been a technology underperformer for a while now, I suspect it will going forward. I do not expect Meta and NVDA type performance in the months ahead.

#21265 30 days ago
Quoted from NPO:

Yall that go in balls deep on stocks are brave. I can't do it. The only one I'm considering is NVidia. It feels like the next Microsoft or Amazon....
Me, I love my index/mutual funds. REITs don't hurt either, especially RITM.
[quoted image]

My 3K thrown in on the 11Th. My gut was right. Gonna let it ride. At least I’ll have 1? Less regret on the stock market..my one and only stock. The folks that originally bought at $5 a share are wiping their hands atm. No worries here..i hear of all of the millionaire stories with bitcoin etc. at least I have $200 lol. I’m riding it out!

08B79238-2A7C-416B-BE79-F7BC33B4C94B (resized).png08B79238-2A7C-416B-BE79-F7BC33B4C94B (resized).png
#21267 30 days ago

And I just picked up more Nvidia. Next earning statement August 28th.

#21268 30 days ago

All right, here I go.

Don't want to be the one missing out if this thing blows up again like it did before the 10-to-1 split....!

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#21270 29 days ago

Nvidia has been doing all the heavy lifting in my portfolio for the past few weeks, even when most things are red, it's up and every index fund and ETF it's in is up. I've had 3 of my best days this year in the past two weeks.

#21271 29 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Nvidia has been doing all the heavy lifting in my portfolio for the past few weeks, even when most things are red, it's up and every index fund and ETF it's in is up. I've had 3 of my best days this year in the past two weeks.

Let us know if you’re selling.

#21272 28 days ago

What are your favorite high percentage dividend paying funds?

I'm looking to make a list of funds to start putting money in for a consistent monthly income in retirement.

#21273 28 days ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

What are your favorite high percentage dividend paying funds?
I'm looking to make a list of funds to start putting money in for a consistent monthly income in retirement.

Today? TBIL

#21274 27 days ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

What are your favorite high percentage dividend paying funds?
I'm looking to make a list of funds to start putting money in for a consistent monthly income in retirement.

JQC
TD
DFP
DSL

#21275 27 days ago

JEPQ - It's averaging a 9.5% yearly dividend, the monthly dividends are about 44 cents a share and increasing. Unlike a lot of high yield dividend funds, it's also experiencing growth, it's up about 9% for the year. It's one of the more popular funds in the Armchair Income community.

#21276 26 days ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

What are your favorite high percentage dividend paying funds?
I'm looking to make a list of funds to start putting money in for a consistent monthly income in retirement.

RITM was pretty good. If I had "I don't care" money I'd go in as it's $1.00 per share. I had it half the year and was on track to make $70. If I put it in a semi-conductor index fund, I'd make $400 ....in a MONTH.

#21278 26 days ago

I like FRU. You're getting a better monthly dividend per dollar you invest.

#21279 26 days ago
Quoted from NPO:

RITM was pretty good. If I had "I don't care" money I'd go in as it's $1.00 per share. I had it half the year and was on track to make $70. If I put it in a semi-conductor index fund, I'd make $400 ....in a MONTH.

huh? RITM is $11.16
it's been a solid performer for me with a nice dividend

#21280 26 days ago

What's going on with MU? Up 24% in a months, 80% ytd and up 6% today with no news?

#21281 26 days ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

huh? RITM is $11.16
it's been a solid performer for me with a nice dividend

$1.00 DIVIDEND per share.

#21282 26 days ago
Quoted from RTR:

What's going on with MU? Up 24% in a months, 80% ytd and up 6% today with no news?

All chip stocks are up big this year, it looks like MU reports earnings on June 26 and there has been alot of optimistic commentary from analysts about how they are doing.

I bought a bunch of SMH in January, February and March as part of a larger move to jump on the chip maker growth train. SMH is a semi-conductor ETF, it's up 50% YTD and that's not all Nvidia. This is becoming the year of the chip stocks.

#21283 26 days ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Let us know if you’re selling.

I'm not planning on selling Nvidia for quite a while, I think their long term outlook looks great, although I'll jump off it that changes. Right now I'm still buying it and TSM.

#21284 26 days ago

it's almost been 1 full week (in about an hour) since I threw 3K at NVIDIA..im seeing a $357 profit from that already..pretty wild..and I know, I'm not hoping or dwelling..i'm gonna enjoy the ride, either way.

#21285 26 days ago
Quoted from KING-HENRY:

it's almost been 1 full week (in about an hour) since I threw 3K at NVIDIA..im seeing a $357 profit from that already..pretty wild..and I know, I'm not hoping or dwelling..i'm gonna enjoy the ride, either way.

Yeah, thanks for the reminder as I finally threw some at it that day. Up 13% and thinking I should have thrown more at it ;p

#21286 26 days ago

03:20 PM EDT, 06/18/2024 (MT Newswires)

Nvidia (NVDA) agreed to buy Shoreline.io in a deal that values the software startup at $100 million, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Shoreline was founded in 2019 by Anurag Gupta, a former Amazon Web Services executive.

#21287 26 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

JEPQ - It's averaging a 9.5% yearly dividend, the monthly dividends are about 44 cents a share and increasing. Unlike a lot of high yield dividend funds, it's also experiencing growth, it's up about 9% for the year. It's one of the more popular funds in the Armchair Income community.

9.5%!? That's damn good, I'm already in JEPI but this is very attractive.

#21288 26 days ago

I dumped a bunch of Tesla stock on News of Elon's pay grab. Not feeling tinge of guilt or remorse.
Still own a bunch from when it was at all time low. You just can't predict what the heck is happening with this
stock. The moment you think you have it figured out Elon says something random and it deflates. Just seems
like Tesla is doing alot of recalls and stuff. Perhaps some news in August will change that up. IDK

#21289 25 days ago
Quoted from kvan99:

9.5%!? That's damn good, I'm already in JEPI but this is very attractive.

I had both, but sold my JEPI and focused on JEPQ because it was cheaper per share, had a bigger dividend, and had more growth. A comparison:
https://www.dripcalc.com/compare-etfs/jepi/jepq/

#21290 25 days ago

FEPI is another high dividend yield that's been good in the past year or two. It's got a really high yield, close to 25%, and the stock price has seemed pretty even, not losing or gaining much value. While the stock market was going sideways for a while I parked about 150K in JEPI, JEPQ and FEPI and pulled in nice monthly dividends. But at the chip market started to get hot, I sold off JEPI and FEPI and bought Nvidia, because I thought I could make more money on growth than dividends.

I'm in the Armchair Income group on Facebook where there are a lot of retired folks investing solely in dividend funds and totally living off of their dividends. They have discussions about their strategies and make recommendations. They also publish what they are invested in and the results in dividends and growth. It seems like a nice passive income strategy for someone that's retired.

#21291 25 days ago

My Fidelity account is only 6.5 months old, but I'm up 12.4% this year. Military ROTH TSP is up about 12.75%. Man, I feel for people not investing in the markets. I never realized what you can do if you just keep steadily investing money into your accounts, get a promotion and put that money into your investment accounts, live below your means, and have zero debt.....this is glorious. Wish I had started this (Fidelity) years ago. Best time was 20 years ago - next best time for me apparently was January 2024!

#21292 25 days ago
Quoted from TechnicalSteam:

I dumped a bunch of Tesla stock on News of Elon's pay grab. Not feeling tinge of guilt or remorse.
Still own a bunch from when it was at all time low. You just can't predict what the heck is happening with this
stock. The moment you think you have it figured out Elon says something random and it deflates. Just seems
like Tesla is doing alot of recalls and stuff. Perhaps some news in August will change that up. IDK

I’m a newb at stocks (basically) and I wouldn’t touch Tesla with a 10 ft pole. Ymmv (irony).

#21293 25 days ago

Could you send me a link to this FB group please? I would love to check it out. Thanks!

Quoted from nwpinball:

FEPI is another high dividend yield that's been good in the past year or two. It's got a really high yield, close to 25%, and the stock price has seemed pretty even, not losing or gaining much value. While the stock market was going sideways for a while I parked about 150K in JEPI, JEPQ and FEPI and pulled in nice monthly dividends. But at the chip market started to get hot, I sold off JEPI and FEPI and bought Nvidia, because I thought I could make more money on growth than dividends.
I'm in the Armchair Income group on Facebook where there are a lot of retired folks investing solely in dividend funds and totally living off of their dividends. They have discussions about their strategies and make recommendations. They also publish what they are invested in and the results in dividends and growth. It seems like a nice passive income strategy for someone that's retired.

#21294 25 days ago
Quoted from DadofTwins:

Could you send me a link to this FB group please? I would love to check it out. Thanks!

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1960447914286446/?ref=share&mibextid=NSMWBT

#21295 24 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

All chip stocks are up big this year

My Intel stock would like a word with you....

#21296 24 days ago

Bought more NVidia this morning and transitioned some of my lower performing excessive "Large Growth/Large Blend" index funds to FSELX. FSELX is on an absolute fiery tear.

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#21297 24 days ago

It’s been glorious.

Perma legend Tom Lee and Fundstrat.

Best advice I can give anybody. The results speak for themselves. If it’s not part of your equation then you are behind

You gotta keep learning. Power of compounding

On calculator.net pull up and bookmark the "future value calculator". Plug in the values and understand the difference in compounding over 20 yrs on 3%, 5%, 7%, 9% etc. and then set YOUR goals to it. Every % point matters every month, every yr. et.

Read "Common sense investing", Vanguard founder John Bogle and any books by Buffett.

You gotta put the work in yourselves. You aren't gonna get the LT solutions from "Roaring Kitty" or Pinside.

If you DON'T have time to do the work then go to VANGUARD, use their advisor platform and keep pounding away. You can't do it better yourself LONG TERM.

The emotions of FEAR and GREED are too much for the retail investor long-term.

#21298 24 days ago
Quoted from NPO:

My Fidelity account is only 6.5 months old, but I'm up 12.4% this year. Military ROTH TSP is up about 12.75%. Man, I feel for people not investing in the markets. I never realized what you can do if you just keep steadily investing money into your accounts, get a promotion and put that money into your investment accounts, live below your means, and have zero debt.....this is glorious. Wish I had started this (Fidelity) years ago. Best time was 20 years ago - next best time for me apparently was January 2024!

Quoted from KING-HENRY:

I’m a newb at stocks (basically) and I wouldn’t touch Tesla with a 10 ft pole. Ymmv (irony).

Welcome to the club fellas!

You are not real members yet though folks. Remember that stocks go up and they come down. The rapid price increase in stocks you are witnessing now is unusual. Be mentally prepared to hold on to things (or not) when things drop. Too many people (and I've been guilty of this) do their first investment, watch it go up, then freak out and sell down the road when its underwater. By all means keep investing (I am) but only invest in things you understand.

Good luck!

#21299 24 days ago

On halftime report, CNBC, poor value investor Jenny Harrington was commenting on how "nobody that manages money is beating the S&P 500 YTD", primarily because you had to be market weighted to the "magnificent 7". Also, you had to have been on the AAPL, NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT recent moves.

Screen Shot 2024-06-20 at 11.20.13 AM (resized).pngScreen Shot 2024-06-20 at 11.20.13 AM (resized).png
#21300 24 days ago

I was in all of them...except NVIDA. lol. I did own NVDIA when it was around $150...but sold it long before the catapult. Woops.

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