(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#20301 3 months ago

Not me. Continuing moving into IWM, some SPY and moving slowly out of T-Bills.

Quoted from WeirPinball:

I know this isnt the crypto thread but anyone jumping into a bitcoin etf tomorrow?

#20302 3 months ago
Quoted from pinball2020:

Not me. Continuing moving into IWM, some SPY and moving slowly out of T-Bills.

I put a small amount in - just to see what it does.

#20303 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I know this isnt the crypto thread but anyone jumping into a bitcoin etf tomorrow?

I made some money on Bitcoin a few years ago
I think I am done, too risky for me at this point in my life to get back in.

#20304 3 months ago

I bought bitcoin miner stocks instead, hoping for a bump there with RIOT and MARA. It did not go well for me, they are both tanking today about 15%.

#20305 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I put a small amount in - just to see what it does.

That's why I only put a small amount in - if it tanks, I'll bail and try to make it back elsewhere.

#20306 3 months ago
Quoted from BRONX:

I just don't understand the bond market anymore, I use too. But after 2009 and covid I'm lost. I simply don't get it

If you understand economics and how interest rates and markets are linked it's not hard, but I find most people don't know those mechanics and hence get lost with the bond market. It's not that simple but it's key to understanding stock markets well.

Quoted from WeirPinball:

I know this isnt the crypto thread but anyone jumping into a bitcoin etf tomorrow?

Totally understand the runup to ETFs in the US the past many weeks.

No idea where the value goes for the balance of the year. Be careful.

#20307 3 months ago

What’s interesting to me is seeing which brokers are banning purchases of any of the ETF’s because it doesn’t align with their core values.

#20308 3 months ago

Just jumping into some puts on ASA. Hope to sell them in two to three days. They have some aggressive whackiness going on:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asa-gold-precious-metals-fund-123000756.html

I am either going to make a little money or lose just about $1200. Everything else is in SPY, IWM or T-bills.. I may have a little in a medical ETF, too.
ASA 01-11-24 1236 pm (resized).JPGASA 01-11-24 1236 pm (resized).JPG

#20309 3 months ago

Putting a small amount in a bitcoin ETF makes a lot of sense from an asymmetric return standpoint. If you put 10k in it and it goes to 0, you've lost $10k. If it doubles, 10x's, etc then you've made multiples of that probably in a much shorter time than the stock market or most other things you could invest in.

You just have to be ready to exit if it gets overheated as it can take a long time for it to recover, and be ok with it going to zero.

#20310 3 months ago

So kvan99 and kool1 what do you think about the drop in DAL today? Down 8.5% and I picked some up - did I screw up?

#20311 3 months ago
Quoted from RTR:

So kvan99 and kool1 what do you think about the drop in DAL today? Down 8.5% and I picked some up - did I screw up?

I think Delta is a winner in the airline sector, along with Southwest.

#20312 87 days ago

Boeing:

The predictable delivery delays are being announced and hitting the stock price. Starting to get interesting as I do agree that the problems are likely temporary. Boeing is on China’s shit list, so they could gum up the works for longer than needed just because.

#20313 87 days ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Boeing:
The predictable delivery delays are being announced and hitting the stock price. Starting to get interesting as I do agree that the problems are likely temporary. Boeing is on China’s shit list, so they could gum up the works for longer than needed just because.

I hear ya...I've doubled my position in the past week or so, I just bought more today. This is what happens when we let politics into our institutions. The FAA is deliberately holding up return to service, they're afraid to look bad or catch heat on any of this. This is a case where some unlicensed assembly workers forgot to put the lockout bolts in the door. Is it bad? Yeah, it is...but to punish Boeing and the airlines to this extent is just theater for the public. All they needed to do was ground the aircrafts, have them check all the doors for the presence of the lockout bolts and the fasteners around the door. Next, on their own time table force Spirit and Boeing to conduct better inspections on all door assemblies. But, as of now, it's all about fooling the public and politicians that the FAA is actually working to keep the public safe from big bad Boeing. Do you think EASA would do this kind of stuff to Airbus?....fat chance.

#20314 87 days ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I hear ya...I've doubled my position in the past week or so, I just bought more today. This is what happens when we let politics into our institutions. The FAA is deliberately holding up return to service, they're afraid to look bad or catch heat on any of this. This is a case where some unlicensed assembly workers forgot to put the lockout bolts in the door. Is it bad? Yeah, it is...but to punish Boeing and the airlines to this extent is just theater for the public. All they needed to do was ground the aircrafts, have them check all the doors for the presence of the lockout bolts and the fasteners around the door. Next, on their own time table force Spirit and Boeing to conduct better inspections on all door assemblies. But, as of now, it's all about fooling the public and politicians that the FAA is actually working to keep the public safe from big bad Boeing. Do you think EASA would do this kind of stuff to Airbus.....fat chance.

Previous low was 178 - wonder if it will test that before heading north

#20315 87 days ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Previous low was 178 - wonder if it will test that before heading north

And that was only a couple months ago. Which is why I won't consider buying BA until it gets back around there again.

#20316 86 days ago

And I sold off yesterday losing $315. I did not want to wait to have the PUTS expire worthlessly.

Quoted from pinball2020:

Just jumping into some puts on ASA. Hope to sell them in two to three days. They have some aggressive whackiness going on:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asa-gold-precious-metals-fund-123000756.html
I am either going to make a little money or lose just about $1200. Everything else is in SPY, IWM or T-bills.. I may have a little in a medical ETF, too.
[quoted image]

#20317 86 days ago

https://pinside.com/pinball/forum/topic/stock-market-traders/page/370#post-7355298

“For transparency” here was my expected SaP outcome for 2023 from last January. Keep in mind this was during a time when the bears ran the show and it wasn’t a matter of “if” we were going into recession but “how bad it will be”?! Something about landings and stuff?? Hopefully it will be soft! Yeah I didn’t believe any of that and it didn’t happen. The reason why is Unemployment was to low, velocity of money was on the rise along with supply chains getting back up coming out of Covid and govt deficits raised back up as expected in 2023 from 2022 “slow” after the 2020/21 blow outs. The higher rates folks feared added super high yields on super high balances in MMA and bonds which added kindling to the economic fire. Also remember we had banking issues early last year also it didn’t matter. Tried to explain why here but the doom and gloom folks took over so I tapped out. They were wrong.

From last year - I just highlighted a bullish momentum gauge that triggered second week of 2023 and went with it. From 1-12-23 the SaP actually hit the median average one year later from the gauge 20%. Pretty bullish. Messed around with MTV the grind to be funny. But hey last January was a time of doom!

This line from last years post was a ray of sunshine in a time of doom and gloom.
“Will see how this plays out. One may want to get long if we get the 3800’s because pullbacks “could be shallow” and this year could “surprise”.” We briefly got 3800’s in March. Not bad huh??

But that was last year. This year - SaP target 5200-5400. Good but getting there will be ugly at times. It will really test you.

Govt spending will keep rising and likely be above the 2023 comeback levels over the 2022 “slow” and had fhr largest tax pull in US history by 50%. Once again - GOVT DEFICITS ARE “THE MONEY SUPPLY” they are not a credit card - PERIOD. Govt is really in control of the economy now with the large deficits. You will like it at times 2020/21 but pullbacks will be tougher 2022. Like it or not it is what it is. 2026 and after could be brutal more on that later.

This year Expect two drops of 10% plus and Nasdaq may come close to 20% one time likely October.
SaP rise up a little more through February and then pull back. Tax will be more then last year but not largest tax pull in 2022

Oddly - One drop may happen “soon after” rates are lowered. The time many wanted to get in. The Fed has a roll but smaller. Govt spending runs the show now “the Fed” is more impotent than it has ever been in decades. BION and Like it or not. How can the Fed have power if govt has years of adding 2 trillion to the economy annually??

Ok SaP Rise into Summer a bit but August - October drop this year is looking “worse than last year”. You will be really scared to add money in October again this year. The more scared you are the better pricing for “the last run” and more on that in a second. That will be a great time to buy.

Shockingly NOV/Dec end year back above 5000’s and a little higher as we run up one last time 2025 into 2026 before “the end” of the party.

What is the end? Let’s Zoom out more.
Back half 2025 into 2026 market will make one last run to the 6000’s. That one last push! The top. The experts will remain bullish and folks will be comfortable holding in the 6000’s and won’t see it coming. Main driver of value of assets “defict spending cycles” will peak and slow. Combine this with very highly valued asset prices like SaP in the 6000’s and this will be a time to sell assets and hold cash and treasuries during an asset price reset.

The bears will finally be right and say “I told you so!” but they will be off on their calls by 3 years like 98% of them always are. Bears as usual mostly don’t hold assets to sell at the top and won’t have the guts to short the market when SaP is at 6500 either. Most will take pleasure in the crash though. It sounds harsh but it’s how it works.

Anyway - SaP reset start end of 2025 and/or 2026? Ugh back to 3500 target mostly based on the high level of assets and back to normal $1 trillion and under govt deficits after 2020-25 blowouts. Maybe 3000 even. Will see how the govt responds to see how much the pain will be. All in all - PAIN expected.

So Bulls will win and bears will have their day! Main point is not how wonderful and sexy I was or think I will be, but to start to think about what may happen to the markets as 1. Asset prices continue to run up 2. Govt defcits (money supply addition) goes back to 2019 levels. 2025/26 are coming up. Trying to explain this as simply as possible. Really I hope I am wrong on my downside. I just don’t see it.

Will add some upside and downside 2025/26 bear porn and charts. Added chart of govt spending flows past and expected future “the 2020-25 deficit blowout” will end. 2016 Tax cuts end in 2026 sucking money out of the money supply. No more 5% MMA and bond yields for savers to “get rewarded playing it safe”. A chunk of the huge MMA balance holders will probably have their money in the market in 2025/26. GDP cycles expected to drop hard in 2026. What if SaP is at 6500ish then???

FYI Bottom chart it GDP cycles.

https://infogram.com/deficit-tracker_final-1h0n25yrjl1xl6p

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MMMFFAQ027S

But Doesn’t matter “what I think”. The economy and markets will just do what they do. Wish you all well.

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#20318 85 days ago

I'm looking at PayPal stock again.
pinnyheadhead nice analysis.

My prediction. And you heard it here, first..... The US economy is very robust, inflation is alive, and the federal reserve will hike rates yet again perhaps in a few weeks. When you run $2trillion+++ defecits in the USA, with no end in sight, it's very inflationary because it promotes expansion. Also they are somehow borrowing *cheap money* in the process which is completely mind boggling, more on this at the end of this summary.. The economy will grow and grow and grow. $2trillion defecits, also means risk of ecomomy over heating, labour issues,
And shortages, inflation, etc....All this talk about soft/medium/or hard landing is completely rubbish.

What is *cheap money* when government entities get money that is below this simple equation...

My analysis. USA 2024 fiscal GDP growth +3.5%
2024 USA average inflation rate 3.5%(being conservative) $2trillion + defecits with no end in sight, anything is possible

Equation for 10yr USA bond yield...

*Expected fiscal GDP growth as percentage* + *expected yearly average inflation rate as percentage= fair yield on 10yr government Treasury.

My prediction is....

3.5%gdp growth 2024 + 3.5% average inflation for 2024= 7% yield for 10yr bond fair value

If government is financing below this, it's free money. Currently the 10yr is 4.1% yield, so it's deep discount and really free.

CNBC prediction, bloombergs, JP Morgan's,wells fargos, Goldman Sachs numbers....

GDP only grows at 2.5% ? And inflation does fall towards 2.5% ?as all these idiots on CNBC and Bloomberg claim.
Then the 10yr yield fair price is around 5%, even at these number, the govt is financing these mind boggling inflationary defecits at 18% discounted yields at the current 4.1%

#20319 85 days ago

Nolan Ryan was the first athlete to make $1million per year in 1980. Highest paid, mind boggling....

2024 Shohei Ohtani is the highest paid athlete at a mind boggling $70million annual salary. 70x more than hall of famer Nolan Ryan in about 44yrs time. How much is the top tier wage inflation rate for top athletes in the past 44years....
According to my calculations $1mil in 1980 compounded at the annual average s&P500 stock returns for past 44years(10.14%) equals $70mil dollars. How ironic. So wage inflation if sort of pegged at the annual average return of the S&P500 for top tier sport athletes.

Let's dig a bit deeper, it's 2024. This is a big year for ordinary Americans that have achieved large pay increases that will be coming on board sometime this year
Some large increases are from gm workers, ford, caterpillar,Deere, Boeing, and many other S&P 500 companies, alot of deals I read are between 20-25% wage increases over the next 4 years. These are just ordinary folks.

What kind of power do silicone valley sought engineers have to demand in there annual salary increases and bonuses. What do silicone valley start ups have to fetch to seek talent and retain the talent for them to become viable as 90% will probably fail?

It's not only blue colors workers demanding more, white collars, and every collar demanding more of this useless money that our governments keep on spending and creating and diluting our economy with more and more money each and every day. Wage inflation is just another way of saying... Our money is becoming more worthless, print us some more too........

2% inflation??? I don't think so

#20320 85 days ago
Quoted from RTR:

So kvan99 and kool1 what do you think about the drop in DAL today? Down 8.5% and I picked some up - did I screw up?

Rarely ever buy airlines. I realize it's a better sector than it used to be but I don't need to be there nor do our clients.

Quoted from BRONX:

I'm looking at PayPal stock again.

PYPL was a top pick from our analyst for 2024. It's a cheap stock.

#20321 85 days ago

Just changing up slightly where I have been putting my money:
Moved some money still to T-Bills - I don't want to deal with 1st Quarter shenanigans whether the rates will go up or not. At 5.22% I am content. Rotating still with 3 and 6 month instruments and before end of the year will have money ready for the post October push up (hopefully).
SPY
IWM

These last three are long term and will check back periodically on them (at least a year from now worse case):

IXJ
GCOW
URNM

#20322 83 days ago

How do you guys feel about BABA? the forecasts have been predicting a huge upswing for quite a while but they can't seem to catch a break.

#20323 83 days ago
Quoted from Dano:

How do you guys feel about BABA? the forecasts have been predicting a huge upswing for quite a while but they can't seem to catch a break.

You don't need to be in China. It's not a safe investing environment.

BABA is a fantastic business and if it was located almost anywhere else it would be worth significantly more.

#20324 83 days ago

To add to that, I may have lost (or not made) money by staying away from BABA over the last 9 years for the following reason: BABA is incorporated as a limited liability company in the Cayman Islands. When I saw that 9 years ago it was like, no, pass on any investing. People tend to ignore that if they are making money.

Quoted from Dano:

How do you guys feel about BABA? the forecasts have been predicting a huge upswing for quite a while but they can't seem to catch a break.

Quoted from kool1:

You don't need to be in China. It's not a safe investing environment.
BABA is a fantastic business and if it was located almost anywhere else it would be worth significantly more.

#20325 83 days ago

I picked up 100 shares of BABA back in December when I thought it had bottomed out... nope! It's down 7% since then. I'm considering it a test investment to see what happens, I think it's a good company with tons of potential, but don't trust Chinese companies because of the weird moves the government does to hurt them.

#20326 83 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I picked up 100 shares of BABA back in December when I thought it had bottomed out... nope! It's down 7% since then. I'm considering it a test investment to see what happens, I think it's a good company with tons of potential, but don't trust Chinese companies because of the weird moves the government does to hurt them.

Like making the CEO disappear...

#20327 82 days ago

Thanks, I was on the fence with it being in China plus I'm already pretty tech heavy at this point. I'm starting to dig into real estate and health care so maybe I'll just continue on that route.

#20328 82 days ago

So up or down tomorrow?

#20329 82 days ago

S and p has been flirting with a close above 4800 for a few months and rocketed to 4840 at close. I think we see 4900 by the end of the month if not by the end of the week... so up.

#20330 81 days ago

These last 90 days have been glorious.

#20331 81 days ago
Quoted from thechakapakuni2:

So up or down tomorrow?

Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

S and p has been flirting with a close above 4800 for a few months and rocketed to 4840 at close. I think we see 4900 by the end of the month if not by the end of the week... so up.

Heck at this rate we might see S&P 5000 by the end of the month.

#20332 81 days ago

I figure in the next month regardless of highs we might see a 7% drop. I’m bullish but expecting some sort of pullback to fill. We shall see.

Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

Heck at this rate we might see S&P 5000 by the end of the month.

#20333 81 days ago
Quoted from pinball2020:

I figure in the next month regardless of highs we might see a 7% drop. I’m bullish but expecting some sort of pullback to fill. We shall see.

#20334 81 days ago

This explains while I keep seeing 30Mil mansions being sold. Guessing the prices are gonna be good after the crash

#20335 80 days ago

And after our discussion about BABA, it's popped 8% today on news the Chinese government will make moves to support it's stock market. I might sell since I'm no longer in the red.

#20336 80 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

And after our discussion about BABA, it's popped 8% today on news the Chinese government will make moves to support it's stock market. I might sell since I'm no longer in the red.

China could learn from us - just buy all the worthless assets at full price and put them on the fed's balance sheet.

#20337 80 days ago

nwpinball your strategy makes the most sense. You must be very disciplined. See, for example I was going to purchase A. D.M last week. I brought it up on here a few times for any info, long story short? Accounting scandals would of killed me in A.D.M. Sometimes you just never really know what you are really buying? The books and fundamentals may appear good but deep inside it could be just an illusion. Enron, WorldCom,Wells Fargo,Lehman bros, Wachovia, to name a few, , etc... the only may to diversify the risk of corporate greed and sin is to diversify into a good index fun and spread capital in a broad variety of companies. Long term it should always win.

#20338 79 days ago

Anyone else riding the Nvidia train until it (hopefully never) flies off the tracks?

#20339 79 days ago
Quoted from Dano:

Anyone else riding the Nvidia train until it (hopefully never) flies off the tracks?

Yes, I'm on board. I owned NVDA for a while in 2020. Made a little money and sold it. Wish I had just held it. So when I bought some again in 2022 after it dropped, I'm holding onto it even though it has doubled since and is at a very high valuation. What can you say? The company is "winning" and its stock price reflects it. I haven't added to my position, though. It's just a "hold" for me.

#20340 78 days ago

I have been doing well since I stopped trying to pick individual stocks and just threw everything in the S&P 500. Depending on how you do the math I'm up between 9 and 14% since last June. I like this. I will continue throwing money into it every week, and extra money when it hits new all time highs, 52 week lows, and when its lower than my average cost. Despite what you may think of the economy, I believe the macroeconomic trends for the larger stocks in the S&P are actually quite favorable. I believe it will be S&P 6000 (or at least 5800-6200) by the end of the year (currently just shy of 4900). Starting buying it at about 4400.

#20341 78 days ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

I have been doing well since I stopped trying to pick individual stocks and just threw everything in the S&P 500. Depending on how you do the math I'm up between 9 and 14% since last June. I like this. I will continue throwing money into it every week, and extra money when it hits new all time highs, 52 week lows, and when its lower than my average cost. Despite what you may think of the economy, I believe the macroeconomic trends for the larger stocks in the S&P are actually quite favorable. I believe it will be S&P 6000 (or at least 5800-6200) by the end of the year (currently just shy of 4900). Starting buying it at about 4400.

I'm with you - indexes will make up the bulk of my investment

#20342 78 days ago
Quoted from BRONX:

I'm looking at PayPal stock again.
pinnyheadhead nice analysis.
My prediction. And you heard it here, first..... The US economy is very robust, inflation is alive, and the federal reserve will hike rates yet again perhaps in a few weeks. When you run $2trillion+++ defecits in the USA, with no end in sight, it's very inflationary because it promotes expansion. Also they are somehow borrowing *cheap money* in the process which is completely mind boggling, more on this at the end of this summary.. The economy will grow and grow and grow. $2trillion defecits, also means risk of ecomomy over heating, labour issues,
And shortages, inflation, etc....All this talk about soft/medium/or hard landing is completely rubbish.
What is *cheap money* when government entities get money that is below this simple equation...
My analysis. USA 2024 fiscal GDP growth +3.5%
2024 USA average inflation rate 3.5%(being conservative) $2trillion + defecits with no end in sight, anything is possible
Equation for 10yr USA bond yield...
*Expected fiscal GDP growth as percentage* + *expected yearly average inflation rate as percentage= fair yield on 10yr government Treasury.
My prediction is....
3.5%gdp growth 2024 + 3.5% average inflation for 2024= 7% yield for 10yr bond fair value
If government is financing below this, it's free money. Currently the 10yr is 4.1% yield, so it's deep discount and really free.
CNBC prediction, bloombergs, JP Morgan's,wells fargos, Goldman Sachs numbers....
GDP only grows at 2.5% ? And inflation does fall towards 2.5% ?as all these idiots on CNBC and Bloomberg claim.
Then the 10yr yield fair price is around 5%, even at these number, the govt is financing these mind boggling inflationary defecits at 18% discounted yields at the current 4.1%

Stepped away for a bit.

I follow a little but don’t go nuts on GDP. I care most about innovation that comes from deficit spending (money supply)

A few thoughts
1.The Deficit is the money supply - Period. Sorry to pound the table on this. The govt has a money printer and can make the payments on the debt and any other payment like SS or Medicare whenever it wants. Well there is a chance those in govt stop the payments. True. That’s on them.

2. Inflation is part of GDP. On the flip side innovation many times lowers GDP making product prices lower and more efficient. Also assets that provide innovation are a place that holds value which lowers inflation.

An example of this would be Apple Vs Exxon. Apple’s iPhone makes peoples lives more efficient, less costly and all round better. Exxon sells a commodity to make money. Which has been valued more over the past decades? Which has the money been flowing to?
Put it this way - what if the tens of trillions of dollars added to the deficit went into commodities instead of innovation? Oil should be at $300,400, 500 a barrel now. That’s bad for all expect those in the oil business and stock holders. And yes inflationary! But no “fortunately” the added deficit (money supply) that really started getting going in the early 80’s fiscal money add went to innovation like Apples products and here we are. BTW look back Early 1980’s oil price per barrel was double now.

The system isn’t perfect but works

So money add is nice and all and if a large group keeps putting the money in innovation and we get a phone,computer,TV/stereo/food ordering thingy that we hold in our hand with no wires for $40 a month which helps all rich or poor live a better easier life “the system works”.

But before I get too far ahead of myself with “innovation” the money sloshing around now and added in the future also needs to provide basic goods and services to everyone also. If we don’t have food, water, utilities, shelter, healthcare etc societies will crumble.

This is why socialist countries fail - a leader says put me in power and I will give you lower cost energy food healthcare! Then goes after the energy food and healthcare folks demonizing them for hurting the people and govt takes over. Sounds great! Until govt can’t get the products and services out and hires family members to manage things and things crumble and their currency is worthless. Happens all the time.

So once again The govt can pay SS and Medicare payments on time by simply adding money to make the payments - this is a fact. Those who say it’s not are incorrect but I don’t blame them because that is what they have been told all their lives. We constantly hear the money will run out and/or the govt needs tax revenue to cover the bills but hat hasn’t been true for a very long time - thank goodness.

But! the SS / Medicare money added will not work if the recipients have no medicines to buy, no hospitals or no doctors to go to, no food, shelter, bingo halls to spend time in and “this” infrastructure and system is what govt should play a role in to support. Money add is easy - infrastructure and system is harder. AI is great but society will crumble without food energy and shelter etc..

And I won’t get ahead of myself again - there is innovation in energy Farming etc which lowers costs down and makes life better for all, but in order to make big changes to the world innovation like tech wins out.

For reference of what I mean see what folks worried about 50 years ago “overpopulation / not enough food/ hundred millions will starve to death!!” This book sold millions of copy’s. A lot of time innovation to solve problems isn’t here “yet”. But places like the US and the rest of the western world “tend” to find answers. What would happen in the future if we pay off the deficit pulling money out of the system??

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/

Lastly
Now let’s turn to price of assets. We will have times when the money added flows to the not so good places. Times that we have high stock, real estate, commodity,
Crypto, pinball topper (ha ha) speculation. This can cause inflation 2021/22 or bubbles 2000 tech, 2008 real estate.

Key point - money starts as a SS Covid, green energy incentive payment and sloshes around. Folks get caught up on govt waste. Well yeah! But the $2000 toilet seat money “tends” to move on to the right places. Ha haz but hope you all get the point

Times of setbacks are painful and but we can’t blame is all on govt adding money. Its investors fault. So just to add “innovation from the money added is great! but Roku at $450 is not a smart asset to buy at that price so yeah resets will happen”.

Keep it simple! Just buy assets when prices are low and govt is about to add more money to the money supply and sell off assets when asset peoces are high and govt is about to slow money addition. With govt adding more money than ever the past 4-5 years it is getting easier and easier to do. Realize what assets are rolling - innovation “AI” is a thing now. My guess? AI assets / stocks get overvalued in a couple of years and assets to buy will be commodities, but I hope not for too long. oil at $150 whatever a barrel is bad for the reasons above. And I always hope innovation keeps going so life for all, high or lower income, will benefit.

We have higher to go but 2025 end 2026 first half is my zoom out target for a price reset down on stocks for my reasons above. My recommendation is to grab as much of the 2020/21 bat shit money add and smaller but still good 2022-25 money adds just before the start of it. After a period of “oh Sh…!” down buy some energy Steel food utilities for a while to see how things shake out.

Total zoom out! But it’s what I see as of now.

Did you understand this? Boring but once you think about it you can have less FUD (fear uncertainty doubt) about how we have been told things work.
All IMO and “will see”. Hope this helped.

#20343 78 days ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I'm with you - indexes will make up the bulk of my investment

Indexes and ETFs are by far the bulk of my investments, but they are less fun to talk about.

#20344 78 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Indexes and ETFs are by far the bulk of my investments, but they are less fun to talk about.

I do mostly Indexes and ETF’s also and in the spaces of time
Between adding and lightening them I focus on how economies, money supply and prices of assets going up and down in the world work. That is also less fun to talk about with folks also . Ha ha.

But I will add - as I learned all this I realized I was off/wrong in a lot of what I thought I knew during the process. Realizing I was wrong, not agreeing with folks I used to agree with anymore and having no one care of what I was learning is the downside of this. I am so lonely ha ha.

Good job sharing trades. Once it’s on Pinside there is no turning back !

#20345 76 days ago

Mentioned before “cash on the sidelines” is a myth. This is a good article that goes to the next level and adds “equity to money market asset ratio”.

Folks “have cash now” and making 5% on their cash. Woot woot! But price of assets is pretty high now.

What will happen as the market goes higher “and” those 5% yields start to go to 4% then 3%? Will money stay in the MMA’s or flow to equities?? Another reason for the target 2026 pain coming??

And yes “bears” reading this - the stock market can be a place for “Greater Fools”. We just aren’t at the top yet.

All FYI

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/money-market-cash-sidelines-myth-wont-die?ref=biztoc.com

#20346 76 days ago
Quoted from Dano:

Anyone else riding the Nvidia train until it (hopefully never) flies off the tracks?

NVDA is the real deal. Should be a core growth holding. Of course the growth will slow eventually but for now, hold. Seems expensive but given the growth it's actually not.

#20347 75 days ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

I have been doing well since I stopped trying to pick individual stocks and just threw everything in the S&P 500. Depending on how you do the math I'm up between 9 and 14% since last June. I like this. I will continue throwing money into it every week, and extra money when it hits new all time highs, 52 week lows, and when its lower than my average cost. Despite what you may think of the economy, I believe the macroeconomic trends for the larger stocks in the S&P are actually quite favorable. I believe it will be S&P 6000 (or at least 5800-6200) by the end of the year (currently just shy of 4900). Starting buying it at about 4400.

You're not wrong over time. 9-14% is no joke in 7 months. But the big 7 are up 2-5x that rate in the same period.. all the other cruft in the S&P has been holding you back

PS: If that sounds a bit tongue in cheek, consider that this has been the case for largely, the same set of tech stocks for the past 2-3 decades. And with AI, wouldn't you expect that to continue at a rate greater than S&P returns? The only time that may not be the case is in market pullbacks where an equal weighted S&P/Russell 2000 would be the way to go, but that would be the exception, not the rule, for the next 5+ years.

#20348 74 days ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

Mentioned before “cash on the sidelines” is a myth. This is a good article that goes to the next level and adds “equity to money market asset ratio”.
Folks “have cash now” and making 5% on their cash. Woot woot! But price of assets is pretty high now.
What will happen as the market goes higher “and” those 5% yields start to go to 4% then 3%? Will money stay in the MMA’s or flow to equities?? Another reason for the target 2026 pain coming??
And yes “bears” reading this - the stock market can be a place for “Greater Fools”. We just aren’t at the top yet.
All FYI
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/money-market-cash-sidelines-myth-wont-die?ref=biztoc.com

I am with you, but don't understand how money flowing out of MMA's to equities, due to the decrease in interest rates, leads to a decrease in equity prices

#20349 74 days ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I am with you, but don't understand how money flowing out of MMA's to equities, due to the decrease in interest rates, leads to a decrease in equity prices

I’m not pulling anything out of stocks right now. There is a growing amount of cash on the sidelines and the economy keeps defying bearish expectations by growing at a healthy rate while inflationary pressures subside.

Rule #1: nobody really ever knows what the market is going to do 6 months out. But I’m sanguine about my holdings for the next 6 months.

#20350 74 days ago

Another big day for tech. I'm really glad I didn't sell my Microsoft when someone mentioned it was overbought. It's up 25% since I bought it in October.

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