(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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There are 20,942 posts in this topic. You are on page 405 of 419.
#20201 3 months ago

I'm nibbling at oil again since it's been beaten down, I picked up some CVX today. Also some BABA, I think it's finally bouncing off it's low.

#20202 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Yesterday Tom Lee said next year Financials up 25% Russell small caps up 50%

#20203 3 months ago

Could be. I am bullish on SPY and the economy. From some quick and dirty math, the SPY dividend looks like it went up a skootch from roughly $1.69 to something like $1.83-$1.87 a share from looking at what is reducing my SPY dollar value with the difference in the price dropping taken into account with today's dividend.

#20204 3 months ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I'm nibbling at oil again since it's been beaten down, I picked up some CVX today. Also some BABA, I think it's finally bouncing off it's low.

I'm getting a bit negative on holding oil. The cuts have had minor effects on the price per barrel and now the risk is OPEC floods the market to screw everyone over with US production pushing higher. Just waiting on a good time to exit if it ever comes.

#20205 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I'm getting a bit negative on holding oil. The cuts have had minor effects on the price per barrel and now the risk is OPEC floods the market to screw everyone over with US production pushing higher. Just waiting on a good time to exit if it ever comes.

I hear you. Chevron made Barron's top 10 stocks for 2024 list, this part sold me:
"Chevron Corporation (CVX) - The company trades at 10.7 times the projected 2024 earnings with yields of 4.2% and plans to raise its dividend by 8% in January. “Chevron has a lower-risk growth profile than peers, trades a 15% discount to its average cash-flow multiple, and should have a total yield (plus buybacks) of about 12% after the Hess deal closes,” said Adams Funds analyst Greg Buckley."

#20206 3 months ago

FWIW: An analyst on a Fidelity session this week said outlook for 2024 looks "boring... in a good way." No huge swings expected. The X-factor would be politics/gov dysfunction. He showed compelling data that periods following fed rate hikes - and before fed rate cuts - as having some of the best returns on equity investments and S&P index.

BUT...

2025 might bring with it some major shit storms. A lot of large and small cap companies will be looking to refinance the debt they currently carry. If interest rates remain high, expect labor market to cool with potentially large #s of layoffs. Interest rates are the key to several risk factors, not the least of which is government debt, which recently exceeded WWII for having the highest ratio of national debt to GDP in America's history. This, as he emphasized, during a period in which we are not at war. And we can't seem to reduce spending or raise taxes. Current debt levels are, in his view and stats, a very serious problem if borrowing costs (govt bonds) remain high for the federal government in 2024 and beyond.

#20207 3 months ago

I think the market is overbought by a lot....time for a correction, any day now. I cashed out some winners. I want to get back into big tech if there is a correction in January or sooner. Anyone looking at the Russel? I was thinking about taking a position in the index for 2024.

#20208 3 months ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I think the market is overbought by a lot....time for a correction, any day now. I cashed out some winners. I want to get back into big tech if there is a correction in January or sooner. Anyone looking at the Russel? I was thinking about taking a position in the index for 2024.

See my post about Tom Lee above- I'm going to put some $$ in it

#20209 3 months ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I think the market is overbought by a lot....time for a correction, any day now. I cashed out some winners. I want to get back into big tech if there is a correction in January or sooner. Anyone looking at the Russel? I was thinking about taking a position in the index for 2024.

Market technically overbought is but it can still run higher. Russell is a good place to park for the next year++.

Quoted from nwpinball:

I'm nibbling at oil again since it's been beaten down, I picked up some CVX today. Also some BABA, I think it's finally bouncing off it's low.

Should be ok here for another run up.. May be muted until demand picks up some more though.

#20210 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

See my post about Tom Lee above- I'm going to put some $$ in it

Thanks I'll look into it....it's still a bit dicey if the future is uncertain. I much rather wait for a better signal first, like the Fed cutting rates. If they do cut rates, I think the index will bounce harder than the S&P....but if there is downturn small caps may also sink further than the S&P. I have a lot of apprehension, I just can't read the macro picture in these times, we're in a weird place. I've got a lot of cash earning 4.5%, I would've liked to be fully invested in equities again but I haven't been able to pull the trigger.

#20211 3 months ago

Costco sold 100 million in gold last quarter.
Amazing.

#20212 3 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

Costco sold 100 million in gold last quarter.
Amazing.

I saw that too. Given the recent discussion, I wound up reading up on it and if you do all the savings magic (Costco card cash back etc) you can get it close to spot price. Not bad at all.

Granted you can only buy like 2 1 oz bars total…and they are bars not coins…and the type of bar depends on the sale…so not exactly investment grade or currency.

#20213 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Took the opportunity to pick up some AMZN

Up 17% on this - hope the train ride continues

#20214 3 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

Costco sold 100 million in gold last quarter.
Amazing.

I wonder how much they make off each transaction.

#20215 3 months ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I wonder how much they make off each transaction.

not sure, but Costco keeps hitting new highs

#20216 3 months ago

Everyone is saying the Magnificent 7 are oversold, but they keep going up! Are we in some uncharted Market trend?

#20217 3 months ago
Quoted from phil-lee:

Costco sold 100 million in gold last quarter.
Amazing.

You will have to hold for a while to make any money after fees. May work out but I have seen a lot of gold sold for a loss or break even. Only guys I saw make anything off physical bought it 10 years ago.

Quoted from kvan99:

Thanks I'll look into it....it's still a bit dicey if the future is uncertain. I much rather wait for a better signal first, like the Fed cutting rates. If they do cut rates, I think the index will bounce harder than the S&P....but if there is downturn small caps may also sink further than the S&P. I have a lot of apprehension, I just can't read the macro picture in these times, we're in a weird place. I've got a lot of cash earning 4.5%, I would've liked to be fully invested in equities again but I haven't been able to pull the trigger.

The actual cutting of rates not as important as the pivot or the depth of cuts. The pivot is in the books. The number of cuts and speed is what you want to pay attention to. If it's deeper and faster, that's not a good sign.

#20218 3 months ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

Let's start a challenge if kool1 and iceman44 are up to it and agree
Take $250k - pick 5 stocks and give us your portfolio
I can track both of them and see who is "winning" each quarter
Can use closing prices of the day we start
Friendly competition, and I think it would be interesting
Completely understand if you are not interested

It's been a year in the making, but my monopoly money went from $250,000 to $1,343,519.72

If only I had used real money...

pasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image (resized).png
#20219 3 months ago

Agreed, velocity of rates getting reduced will be telling and worse case, frightening . Meanwhile.....

In keeping with just buying and letting it ride till January 2025 , I had some cash come available and picked up 10 more shares of SPY.
I thought of keeping it on the sidelines and just waiting for a big dip between now and mid January but figured to just keep it going and watch the markets.

I would have gotten some IWM but that would have resulted in a wash sale, I got out less than a month ago so I can always get back in next week with some cash.

From some pundits and analysts who unfortunately I didn't save threads from, they are saying that historically there will be a dip where large gains get temporarily wiped out. Barring some horrible news at this point I am inclined to lean towards staying in regardless or just in the second week of January before Congress signs or doesn't sign the debt deal sell till we are over the hump on that. That might be the thing that starts short term correction.

Quoted from kool1:

You will have to hold for a while to make any money after fees. May work out but I have seen a lot of gold sold for a loss or break even. Only guys I saw
make anything off physical bought it 10 years ago.

The actual cutting of rates not as important as the pivot or the depth of cuts. The pivot is in the books. The number of cuts and speed is what you want to pay attention to. If it's deeper and faster, that's not a good sign.

#20220 3 months ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

It's been a year in the making, but my monopoly money went from $250,000 to $1,343,519.72
If only I had used real money...[quoted image]

WOW ... if only
Great picks AFRM up another 15% today

#20221 3 months ago

Just sold my FANG, HES and XLE are next if they squeezes a bit more upside. DVN I have to decide how much I want to loose.

#20222 3 months ago

Rivian is sure on a run, I wish I picked some up last month. I'm now seeing Rivian trucks all the time in my neighborhood, I saw 3 on the way to work today.

#20223 3 months ago

For your consumption - things to think about going into 2024

pasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image2 (resized).pngpasted_image2 (resized).pngpasted_image3 (resized).pngpasted_image3 (resized).png
#20224 3 months ago
Quoted from kool1:

For your consumption - things to think about going into 2024
[quoted image][quoted image][quoted image]

Think I'll wait for that retracement in the russell to start putting money in.

#20225 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Think I'll wait for that retracement in the russell to start putting money in.

Short term market is overbought. I think if you missed out it's better to wait a bit.

#20226 3 months ago

Wow, market turned on a dime today.

#20227 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Wow, market turned on a dime today.

I must have missed that or I got up late.

Seems the whole day has been a snowballing selloff. I imagine more of that is to come.

And with all the fake good news and Christmas pump said and done, we might finally get that recession in the next two quarters. Unless they redefine it again.

In 2007, DOW had just hit its all time high before that selloff began.

#20228 3 months ago

Investors trying to escape 2023 before the big crash

IMG_1406.gifIMG_1406.gif
#20229 3 months ago

LOL - I don't see it as a big crash. I see some spooky deep dips over the next year or two but I am optimistic - at least until 2025-2026 .

Quoted from thechakapakuni2:

Investors trying to escape 2023 before the big crash
[quoted image]

#20230 3 months ago

The market got way to.ahead of itself in my own personal opinion. The fed should have never opened there mouths up about 3 cuts in 2024. Inflation hasent been beaten yet, actually inflation is harder to beat than what the fed is trying to sell. Usually when fighting inflation, when it does start to drop, the economy gets way to excited and start to party, thats when inflation mysteriously does a 360 and gets out of control pretty quickly for round 2. If the fed can't live up to these rate cuts, the markets are in big trouble, if inflation as I'm predicted gets ready for round#2 and the fed needs to hike, lookout ......

Me personally rates will be going up along with inflation. Usd is dropping, I see oil over $100, and honestly 2024 could be the year when China starts to grow more then expected. China's economy is entering a more mature stage and they will be less dependent going forward to selling junk to the west, to grow. Make no mistake, China's economy will start growing rapidly through there own domestic consumption and a rapidly growing service economy that nobody is factoring in. Even if the USA takes a big dump, this time around there lack of demand may not been enough to bring down commodity prices as in the past recessions. Stagflation is real, it's something nobody is talking about it's something that in a bad lousy economy intrest rates might be hiked to bring inflation down.

We created a never ending money supply appetite and addiction.
Our society cannot compete on balancing the budgets or creating surplus to payback what we took and keep everyone gainfully employed.
We will continue to borrow and borrow more and more money to keep everything afloat. All of these tools(money supply increase) is inflationary. Wage inflation is becoming a problem aswell. Americans are finally realizing the usd$ is just a lousy depreciating asset class and better of spending or investing it rather soon than later.

My worries are, something big collapsing soon. Causing a crash.
S&p500 price earnings ratios are at nosebleed levels right now, I don't see any bargains. Either does Berkshire and there $160bil nest egg. Something is off, have we become too greedy and can't see the light?

On a better note, Archer Daniels Midland stock is nearing a 52week low, crescent point energy looks cheap to me?
Anyone buying Walgreens lately?
Lyft?
Saputo?
PayPal?

I missed out on discovery financial lately.
Crazy market.

But who knows, I've been wrong on many occasions. I just don't see any screaming deals at the moment

#20231 3 months ago

On a positive note, looks like the Dow futures are up nicely this morning. Trading volumes tend to be lighter now until early January as most folks are on vacation and Christmas mode, this can also increase strange price movements. Most volatile time of year. But at least futures are up this morning.

#20232 3 months ago

Yes, I think it is the huge seesaw of year end adjusting portfolios to look good for end of the year or quarterly earnings. I am expecting (like a lot of you out there in stock market pinball land) the correction (or a brief correction) to hit mid January. We will also see what happens with reporting today and tomorrow in the news - in terms of market noise level - .

Good luck to us all and Merry Christmas

Quoted from BRONX:

On a positive note, looks like the Dow futures are up nicely this morning. Trading volumes tend to be lighter now until early January as most folks are on vacation and Christmas mode, this can also increase strange price movements. Most volatile time of year. But at least futures are up this morning.

Quoted from BRONX:

The market got way to.ahead of itself in my own personal opinion. The fed should have never opened there mouths up about 3 cuts in 2024. Inflation hasent been beaten yet, actually inflation is harder to beat than what the fed is trying to sell. Usually when fighting inflation, when it does start to drop, the economy gets way to excited and start to party, thats when inflation mysteriously does a 360 and gets out of control pretty quickly for round 2. If the fed can't live up to these rate cuts, the markets are in big trouble, if inflation as I'm predicted gets ready for round#2 and the fed needs to hike, lookout ......
Me personally rates will be going up along with inflation. Usd is dropping, I see oil over $100, and honestly 2024 could be the year when China starts to grow more then expected. China's economy is entering a more mature stage and they will be less dependent going forward to selling junk to the west, to grow. Make no mistake, China's economy will start growing rapidly through there own domestic consumption and a rapidly growing service economy that nobody is factoring in. Even if the USA takes a big dump, this time around there lack of demand may not been enough to bring down commodity prices as in the past recessions. Stagflation is real, it's something nobody is talking about it's something that in a bad lousy economy intrest rates might be hiked to bring inflation down.
We created a never ending money supply appetite and addiction.
Our society cannot compete on balancing the budgets or creating surplus to payback what we took and keep everyone gainfully employed.
We will continue to borrow and borrow more and more money to keep everything afloat. All of these tools(money supply increase) is inflationary. Wage inflation is becoming a problem aswell. Americans are finally realizing the usd$ is just a lousy depreciating asset class and better of spending or investing it rather soon than later.
My worries are, something big collapsing soon. Causing a crash.
S&p500 price earnings ratios are at nosebleed levels right now, I don't see any bargains. Either does Berkshire and there $160bil nest egg. Something is off, have we become too greedy and can't see the light?
On a better note, Archer Daniels Midland stock is nearing a 52week low, crescent point energy looks cheap to me?
Anyone buying Walgreens lately?
Lyft?
Saputo?
PayPal?
I missed out on discovery financial lately.
Crazy market.
But who knows, I've been wrong on many occasions. I just don't see any screaming deals at the moment

#20233 3 months ago

Yeah...tomorrow we'll see what's up...I think it's going to be a down day tomorrow. The tug of war has been interesting to watch so far, but the bulls have run out of steam, for now anyway.

#20234 3 months ago
Quoted from BRONX:

The market got way to.ahead of itself in my own personal opinion. The fed should have never opened there mouths up about 3 cuts in 2024. Inflation hasent been beaten yet, actually inflation is harder to beat than what the fed is trying to sell. Usually when fighting inflation, when it does start to drop, the economy gets way to excited and start to party, thats when inflation mysteriously does a 360 and gets out of control pretty quickly for round 2. If the fed can't live up to these rate cuts, the markets are in big trouble, if inflation as I'm predicted gets ready for round#2 and the fed needs to hike, lookout ......
Me personally rates will be going up along with inflation. Usd is dropping, I see oil over $100, and honestly 2024 could be the year when China starts to grow more then expected. China's economy is entering a more mature stage and they will be less dependent going forward to selling junk to the west, to grow. Make no mistake, China's economy will start growing rapidly through there own domestic consumption and a rapidly growing service economy that nobody is factoring in. Even if the USA takes a big dump, this time around there lack of demand may not been enough to bring down commodity prices as in the past recessions. Stagflation is real, it's something nobody is talking about it's something that in a bad lousy economy intrest rates might be hiked to bring inflation down.
We created a never ending money supply appetite and addiction.
Our society cannot compete on balancing the budgets or creating surplus to payback what we took and keep everyone gainfully employed.
We will continue to borrow and borrow more and more money to keep everything afloat. All of these tools(money supply increase) is inflationary. Wage inflation is becoming a problem aswell. Americans are finally realizing the usd$ is just a lousy depreciating asset class and better of spending or investing it rather soon than later.
My worries are, something big collapsing soon. Causing a crash.
S&p500 price earnings ratios are at nosebleed levels right now, I don't see any bargains. Either does Berkshire and there $160bil nest egg. Something is off, have we become too greedy and can't see the light?
On a better note, Archer Daniels Midland stock is nearing a 52week low, crescent point energy looks cheap to me?
Anyone buying Walgreens lately?
Lyft?
Saputo?
PayPal?
I missed out on discovery financial lately.
Crazy market.
But who knows, I've been wrong on many occasions. I just don't see any screaming deals at the moment

I would stay away from all of those names. I think if you want to make money you should follow the trend, into big tech and pharma.

#20235 3 months ago

I am expecting banks and financial related companies to recover and do well in 2024-2025.

Quoted from kvan99:

I would stay away from all of those names. I think if you want to make money you should follow the trend, into big tech and pharma.

#20236 3 months ago

Friday before Christmas its got to close higher.
Right?
Logic would say no. Market not logical lately.
I would hate to be holding the bag this weekend.

#20237 3 months ago

I kinda give it a try this year a bit, I tried a few different stocks buy my best purchase was tesla, did pretty good with that several times, buy/sell, buy/sell, AMC was complete opposite, pretty much lost what I gained. So for a complete amateur I did ok..

#20238 3 months ago

@Kvan99. So would Palantir be something wall street find interesting? If so or are the rich valuations something of a major concern

#20239 3 months ago
Quoted from BRONX:

kvan99. So would Palantir be something wall street find interesting? If so or are the rich valuations something of a major concern

Palantir has a good future, but the issue is the size of the business, it's tiny....something like 50 or so corporate clients, the rest of the money comes from the government contracts. So, that's why wall street isn't too crazy about it. Also, Morgan Stanley downgraded them for their monetization plan in terms of AI, in other words, MS says show us the growth, where is it going to come from? I personally like AMD, Microsoft for AI, NVDA is awesome but dangerous at these prices.

#20240 3 months ago

Yes nvda pricing is a concern to me

#20241 3 months ago

I hopped back on the RIOT train a few weeks ago as bitcoin's price started going up, already up 20%.

#20242 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Just sold my FANG, HES and XLE are next if they squeezes a bit more upside. DVN I have to decide how much I want to loose.

HES and XLE have left the portfolio, only have DVN left. Not sure if I just book a loss or hang on for the long term. Currently down 25%

Also thinking about a short term play on the vix with VXZ - any thoughts?

#20243 3 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

HES and XLE have left the portfolio, only have DVN left. Not sure if I just book a loss or hang on for the long term. Currently down 25%
Also thinking about a short term play on the vix with VXZ - any thoughts?

Sorry, I got nothing...but I'm thinking of bottom fishing some Pfizer....6% dividend, stock is down something like 44%. A small position of maybe 500 shares to start with and give room for averaging down.

#20244 3 months ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Sorry, I got nothing...but I'm thinking of bottom fishing some Pfizer....6% dividend, stock is down something like 44%. A small position of maybe 500 shares to start with and give room for averaging down.

I have bloody fingers from catching this falling knife (PFE) over and over. Hanging in there though. Hoping there is a lot of tax loss harvesting towards eoy and people will start getting back in next year.

They have made some big acquisitions and should be replacing their patent losses over time if they can execute on their plans.

#20245 3 months ago

I did well with Pfizer, I bought it early on during the pandemic and sold when it was up over 40%. It does seem like a bargain now, but they need some big news to reverse it's trend.

#20246 3 months ago

I'm starting to look at AI ETFs to hold for the next decade since that's likely where alot of growth will be. I started with buying BOTZ, METV, and TECB today.

#20247 3 months ago

Barring a surprise announcement, there is no reason to be in Pfizer

#20248 3 months ago
Quoted from kool1:

Barring a surprise announcement, there is no reason to be in Pfizer

Course correction (4 bill in cost cuts) and buyout (Seagen)are already in place.....so there will be announcements.

Oncology Revamp

Pfizer is planning to fuse its oncology efforts with Seagen’s to stoke a revival in cancer, a rapidly growing field where global spending is expected to reach $375 billion by 2027, according to analytics firm IQVIA.

Seagen is a leader in developing therapies that deliver cancer-fighting medicine directly at the tumor site with minimal damage to surrounding tissues. Made by a variety of companies, the drugs are among oncology’s most desired products, with AbbVie Inc., Bristol Myers Squibb Co. and Merck & Co. recently clinching billion-dollar deals to gain access.

#20249 3 months ago

Laying out my plans for next year - going back to fundamentals with index investing primarily but here they are:

Biggest chunks - VTWO (russell 2000), QQQ (nasdaq 100), IVV (s&p 500), and TLT (20 year treasuries). Going to add to my position in AMZN sometime and may add GOOG and MSFT. Some cyclical plays I'll watch for opportunity - URNM, FCX, SLX, and GDX. Unfortunatley some other retirement funds are locked into picking from a handfull of choices, so I'll just have to pick the best match for those.

#20250 3 months ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

I'm starting to look at AI ETFs to hold for the next decade since that's likely where alot of growth will be. I started with buying BOTZ, METV, and TECB today.

May have to try some small $ investments in those...

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