(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#19951 5 months ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

I would....
Deflation is very healthy.

remember not long ago the fed was fighting to raise inflation to 2% - not much real deflationary hope.

#19952 5 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

remember not long ago the fed was fighting to raise inflation to 2% - not much real deflationary hope.

I remember when they were trying to lower it to 2% then just quit.

#19953 5 months ago
Quoted from kvan99:

BEAR MARKET RALLY

Bear steaks?

#19954 5 months ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

Deflation is very healthy.

Not sure which school of business you went to but no it's not.

#19955 5 months ago

That's what I'm thinking...but nothing has changed, except for a few good AI companies' earnings. The Fed is still doing QT, oil is still high, inflation is steady, and two wars are still ongoing. Looks like a short term relief rally to me. But, hey...I've said it before, nothing about this post Covid market has been rational. So, we'll see....sit back and collect that 5%.

#19956 5 months ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

UUggghhhhh...... SIX and FUN are merging. Terrible idea.

I read on the internet not to worry, you will still be able to get two slices of frozen pizza for eighteen bucks.

#19957 5 months ago
Quoted from kool1:

Not sure which school of business you went to but no it's not.

Sure it is:
I even fast forwarded it for ya (what a nice guy I am). The deflation part is only two min, I'm not a goldbug so I don't care about the rest of it.

#19958 5 months ago

NASDAQ has been on fire for a week, I love it!

#19959 5 months ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

Sure it is:
I even fast forwarded it for ya (what a nice guy I am). The deflation part is only two min, I'm not a goldbug so I don't care about the rest of it.

Chances of that happening are a lot less than the fed printing us to oblivion causing massive inflation. Just look at some of the other countries where this has already happened.

#19960 5 months ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

DIS hasn't been this low since 2014 - watching closely at this point.
Also bit the bullet on FTNT today finally...

Getting it up the a$$ on FTNT today. Sucks....

#19961 5 months ago

This market is friggin’ nuts. I bottom ticked the Russell 2000 this week and went all in basically. Looking for it to outperform the sp500 going forward as a catch up trade.

#19962 5 months ago

The definition of a "V" shaped recovery.

Screenshot 2023-11-03 at 10.12.08 PM (resized).pngScreenshot 2023-11-03 at 10.12.08 PM (resized).png
#19963 5 months ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

Sure it is:
I even fast forwarded it for ya (what a nice guy I am). The deflation part is only two min, I'm not a goldbug so I don't care about the rest of it.

Well if global depression and massive dislocation and suffering is your thing... Sure

#19964 5 months ago

Yields def peaked. It’s gonna be choppy with one more significantly lower yield spike but I feel like we consolidate and go up from here with bullish pullbacks. Recession has been pushed out a few quarters. Outlook isn’t great and will be bumpy but I don’t see a market crash in the next few quarters. Real bad stuff probably pushed out to 2025 with another correction mid 2024. Russell 2k is a forever hold here imo. Way underperformed last 12 years and has been consolidating here since pre pandemic.

#19965 5 months ago
Quoted from DropGems:

Yields def peaked. It’s gonna be choppy with one more significantly lower yield spike but I feel like we consolidate and go up from here with bullish pullbacks. Recession has been pushed out a few quarters. Outlook isn’t great and will be bumpy but I don’t see a market crash in the next few quarters. Real bad stuff probably pushed out to 2025 with another correction mid 2024. Russell 2k is a forever hold here imo. Way underperformed last 12 years and has been consolidating here since pre pandemic.

Key is a softish landing. Markets have definitely not priced in a deep recession so if the fed sticks with higher rates for too long it could still be a headwind for markets.

Issue for the fed is bringing rates down too soon and seeing inflation accelerate again. Can't have that so risk is definitely there for a deeper than expected recession.

#19966 5 months ago
Quoted from kool1:

Key is a softish landing. Markets have definitely not priced in a deep recession so if the fed sticks with higher rates for too long it could still be a headwind for markets.
Issue for the fed is bringing rates down too soon and seeing inflation accelerate again. Can't have that so risk is definitely there for a deeper than expected recession.

Totally and it’ll probably happen but we have a few quarters it seems until it does. Fed is reactive not proactive so party on until the catalyst hits has been the playbook.

#19967 5 months ago

@DropGems, Here is a case for the Russell 2000 for the next decade. Just as good as any theory to watch or invest cautiously:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-generational-buy-opportunity-bullish-signal-profits-2023-11

#19968 5 months ago
Quoted from pinball2020:

DropGems, Here is a case for the Russell 2000 for the next decade. Just as good as any theory to watch or invest cautiously:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-generational-buy-opportunity-bullish-signal-profits-2023-11

Yes, this is what I’m banking on. Breadth expansion by way of small caps and Russell outperforming Q’s and spx going forward. It’s been a laggard the past 12 years. If you look at 1979-1983 during periods of high inflation and back to back recessions, the Russell outperformed spx by 80%. It’s a crazy market right now, overall things are fairly bad but US equities are still the best place to be.

#19969 5 months ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

I still believe China will make it's move on Taiwan before the next presidential cycle..... it has too much to lose from someone taking office with some guts.
Tech sector will implode overnight, and 2008 values will look lofty. Millions out of a job, retirements evaporated in an instant, supply chain collapses and all those T-bills..... I don't know what happens to those.
If it happens before the next presidential cycle, Washington will blink and the world order will be re-ordered. If it happens afterward - who knows? War?
So yeah, we can have a drop that's faster and steeper than 2008 and the fed will be powerless.... can't print up a new Taiwan.
Notice how we're busy everywhere, and they're not lifting a finger except to provoke issues near disputed territory (their own coast).
Taiwan falls over a holiday weekend, and when people come home on Monday it's all over. My prediction.
People won't see it coming, even though it's clear as day.
Go farther than that, and you see North Korea invade at the same time with massive assistance from their ally, and our fallback chip provider also goes Kaput. That's the end of USA tech supremacy for a minimum of a decade. Can't make replacement fabs here for at least that long.
What would that do to the market? (Serious question) A terrible scenario, but these people aren't our friends nor do they want the status quo to continue.

You’re literally the only one who sees it coming. “Someone with some guts”.

#19970 5 months ago
Quoted from o-din:

Yes.
It's the dreamers living in some false reality that think everything's just peachy. Or some kind of denial I'd imagine. IMO.

Since you brought it up, what hardships (non health or relationship related) are you currently facing? Economic or otherwise?

#19971 5 months ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Since you brought it up, what hardships (non health or relationship related) are you currently facing? Economic or otherwise?

Have you purchased anything lately?

#19973 5 months ago
Quoted from jchristian11:

Have you purchased anything lately?

I bought a Bond Pro recently.

Or do you mean stock wise? I think my last buy was some DVN, LNG, CDNS and NFLDF (a mining stock that is tanking like hell) about a month ago. I haven’t been too active with my personal trading account of late because I’ve had too many distractions. I’m not very good at stock picking even when I am paying attention. Most of my money is managed. I have an IRA that I trade with, and it’s always my worst performing account.

I come here for the strudel. It’s great!

#19974 5 months ago

Looks like treasury yields are beeping up overnight. Something to keep a watchful eye on. I'm surprised dow futures are slightly up now, Espicially after citizens Bank collapsing on Saturday. I know it's a small regional bank but it does show that the banks are still in bad times, I thought futures would be dropping 150pts or more.

Crazy times

#19975 5 months ago

SantaEatsCheese
I know you recently made some investments based on government shutdown. So FYI: Latest word is there will be a CR by November 17th to prevent government shutdown. Rationale is Congress doesn't want to work during a shut down over the holidays and the new speaker will be given time to find a way to fuck things up when the CR expires 3-6 months from now. Funding for Ukraine is highly contentious and might have to be cut to get a deal between House and Senate. The national debt is just going to keep growing.

Regarding some of the geopolitical discussions on this thread, one thing we know for sure: the world is in a hell of a state of chaos. Populism and fascism on the rise. Democracy and the rule of law in decline (or, at the very least, being given stress tests at home and abroad). The United States is weaker as a government and a hegemonic power than just ten years ago. And we were weaker then than we were 10 years before that. We all better damn well hope America remains the best place in the world to invest. The alternative spells ruin and ashes that will take a very long time, and a great deal of suffering, to emerge from.

#19976 5 months ago
Quoted from Nicholastree:

SantaEatsCheese
I know you recently made some investments based on government shutdown. So FYI: Latest word is there will be a CR by November 17th to prevent government shutdown. Rationale is Congress doesn't want to work during a shut down over the holidays and the new speaker will be given time to find a way to fuck things up when the CR expires 3-6 months from now. Funding for Ukraine is highly contentious and might have to be cut to get a deal between House and Senate. The national debt is just going to keep growing.
Regarding some of the geopolitical discussions on this thread, one thing we know for sure: the world is in a hell of a state of chaos. Populism and fascism on the rise. Democracy and the rule of law in decline (or, at the very least, being given stress tests at home and abroad). The United States is weaker as a government and a hegemonic power than just ten years ago. And we were weaker then than we were 10 years before that. We all better damn well hope America remains the best place in the world to invest. The alternative spells ruin and ashes that will take a very long time, and a great deal of suffering, to emerge from.

I work in government spaces as well and am not hearing/seeing the preparations for a government shutdown on the 17th like I did in early October. I give it a 2% chance of happening this month and as such will not be adjusting my portfolio this time.

#19977 5 months ago
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:

I work in government spaces as well and am not hearing/seeing the preparations for a government shutdown on the 17th like I did in early October. I give it a 2% chance of happening this month and as such will not be adjusting my portfolio this time.

Govt shutdown is way different than the debt ceiling debacle too from what I understand. But that’s good to hear.

#19978 5 months ago

Starting to feel like another "Bear trap" I forgot about Nov 18 lol. Seems like these D-days come up all the time, hard to keep track of them lol.

But seriously looks like the market is out of gas, and a Bear trap might claw in. Earnings season is about to wrap up, Nov 18 coming up , key inflation report coming soon, and the fed blowing hot air show is up again in December!
I don't see the economy slowing? All I see is folks spend spend spend, and this pesky inflation will most likely prove its really sticky. I can't see the fed cutting intrest rates no matter whats going on in the economy if inflation is well above 3.5%. I also see the fed raising rates if inflation ticks back over 4% no matter what the consensus is for this long awaited recession to finally roll right in. There's alot of job vacancies out there, job market is crazy strong, alot of folks doing side jobs nowadays, so there's alot of prosperity or unfortunately for some false prosperity if inflation ticks up again. I don't think Warren buffet is buying anything now, his cash pile is growing. He is content getting 5-5.5% in t-bills in today's market. Should we???

Crazy times

That's my take

#19979 5 months ago

I will be semi brief and direct as I can . The leading driver of the markets and asset values for the last 40 plus years and especially now are govt deficits. Deficits add money to the money supply of the world economies. Like it or not the govts are in control of this.

The leading drive over the last 40 years just got a whole lot bigger. Advice - Follow more then ever or bette yet and more likely “for the first time ever”

So you may want to learn and follow MMT. Which is simply - The govt can add and keep money to the economy whenever they want and are not constrained by revenues like taxes. Hundreds of billions added annually has recently turned into trillions “and this will lead like never before. Like it or not.

Banks and The Fed which get a lot of talk time have input but are more “impotent” than they have ever been. Examples - Interest rates on cars of a percentage point or so higher or lower don’t matter near as much when the govt will give $7500 to you for buying the car they want you to buy. Start ups don’t go to banks to borrow money. Chip markers get money for free to build a factory in the US now. Everyone just locked in 2.5% mortgage rates on their homes so they don’t care about mortgage rates. College loans now have low payments ratios based on the holders income and have balances forgiven later now. See? Banks and Fed pretty “impotent”. It’s a trend that will likely continue. Like it or not.

But yes the past few years the Fed joined the money supply addition party by helping folks get 2.5% mortgage rates lowering payments and keeping money in the economy while is giving “folks with money” 5.5% yields adding more money to the economy. Now we have the most in Money Markets ever $6 trillion by far getting the highest yields in over 20 years. The fed pitched then is pitching in now. Lower payments and higher yields add kindling to the money supply fire with less money back to banks and more money out added to the economy with yields. Like it or….you got the drift.

“Long post dude. Teach me all this in 2 minutes.” Ha ha

How does one follow??

You can go here and do all the math and shit to see how the deficits add money to the money supply and taxes and stuff pull each day.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/operating-cash-balance

Or just follow a guy like this. He is one one of the best at it.

So how do I make money on this? It’s been this way for centuries- you buy stocks and assets during bad times and sell off stocks and assets during good times. With the govt adding such huge amounts of money to the money supply this will be the main driver. “Buy when assets are low and govt is adding more money to the deficit or “money supply” and sell when assets are high and govt is about to “slow” spending or “slow the money addition”. Slows not stops. Let’s not get crash here.

Here is the chart of of global liquidity cycles in the past with current and future added. Go year by year to see how this effected assets in the past.

Also the US Treasury Deficit and Surplus. Mostly surplus. The lower the line goes on this is defcits or the more money that was added for that period of time “net”. Surplus above line is more money back to the treasury “net”. Notice a recent trend the just started after the 2020-22 roller coaster. 2023 More net deficits finally added back. What do you think will happen??

Will add Q and A later. “For those who care”.

IMG_1329 (resized).jpegIMG_1329 (resized).jpegIMG_1357 (resized).pngIMG_1357 (resized).png
#19980 5 months ago

From our tech call today... things look promising after the strong rally.

pasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image2 (resized).pngpasted_image2 (resized).png
#19981 5 months ago

This stuff can be good info for everyone. Traders, positive long term investors and even the burn baby burn folks.

All with less FUD! Fear, uncertainty, doubt.

Questions and answers

I am a long term buy and hold person am I ok? Yes you will be because money is constantly added like the past 40 years and this will keep asset values rising . BUT! From up here with the massive Trillion dollar annual deficits coming in and then “slowing” for a year at a time before they rise again you will have runs up but have to endure violent downturns more often to reach higher levels due to these large inflows and pauses.

I am the “system is fucked and we need a big reset” person can I do well? Yes also. But only if you buy when assets are low and sell at asset tops just before defciit spending slows. Like Now - buy when assets are low. 2025 back half into 2026 first half - sell when assets are high and govt slows spending.

For buy and holds and burn folks - let’s roadmap target SaP 6500 in 2025/ 2026 and 40% drop after. “Something for everyone” Joy and pain! This is based on the “money filling the pool back up at a bette trace than last year”

But I am waiting for a Big reset? 1% chance now sure. But maybe in 10-15 years. That would involve the govt pulling large amounts of money out of the economy “pay do the deficit”. This would cause unnecessary pain for no reason. But one thing to look out for is massive amounts of capital allocated by the govts going to inefficient areas. Inefficient areas don’t lower the costs of products and services and make peoples live better and more efficient. See anything now the govt is spending on heavily that could hurt us 10-15 years from now? Me? I wouldn’t wait for the big reset. The mini but large comparatively, painful resets we will have coming like in 2026 will be a good way to play it.

What about efficient places money can go? Innovation. A Personal computer, World Wide Web, faster cars with lower gas mileage than 40 years ago, safer operations, better ways to farm, iPhone, streaming, fiber cable, sociol media, essentially free phone calls that cost a $1 a minute 40 years ago. ,etc.

But govts didn’t directly invest and create all of that? Correct. The money added sloshes around and tends to find the right places. Like iPhones. Give smart folks money and they “tend” to come up with great ideas for it. They benefit yes but we live in the US and everyone usually ends up benefiting (IPhone) cough cough.

I am a money manager, so I can’t mention deficits and govt spending to clients. They would get angry and lose their shit! Correct. Most lose their shit. So don’t mention. Follow but don’t say anything to them. Make them money in uptimes and protect them during down times. It’s the main reason no one mentions this. Zig while the masses zag in their long held narratives and assumptions. Institutions follow this - trust me. But really most don’t care. Most folks on here won’t.

Can I trade this? Yes you can look at future scheduled monthly money additions like Govt interests payment, social security, Medicare etc and time or on the flip side a tank pull and rime around that.

What do I buy? It won’t give an exact answer on single stocks, earnings etc. It will just tell you when tens or hundreds of billions is coming in or out next month or next year.

I am scared that Social Security will run out of money and I am retiring soon?! The govt can add money to cover gaps in payments. Money is great and all but just as important is we have infrastructure providing food, shelter, healthcare, hospitals, etc. where the SS recipients payments can be used.

So are all assets backed by dollars the coming into in the economy for the govt through the Treasuty, meaning the total stock market value is equal to how many dollars are in the economy? No! All assets are leveraged. You can go on the debt clock. Org site and look at a the upper left to see “deficits” but also the bottom “total US assets. Trends up tend to be when the govt adds a lot of money in so the assets are in more demand and rise - 2020/21 F yeah!! When deficits slow down after a run up assets fall and can fall hard 2022. Boooooo! And this is based on leveraged highs and lows. That is why things swing harder than normal a will swing more with higher deficits which cause even more leverage. Pic below.

Assets on Debt clock are going back up now by the way. Last year they were diving down pretty hard. Real time “asset values”. There they are.

IMG_1341 (resized).jpegIMG_1341 (resized).jpeg
#19982 5 months ago

From our tech call today...

Things look promising after the strong rally.

pasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image (resized).pngpasted_image2 (resized).pngpasted_image2 (resized).png
#19983 5 months ago

Looks to me like UUP (dollar) is basing and resetting before a breakout.
It was overheated, and now it's cooling off nicely without really going down.
We all know what UUP going up does to the market.

#19984 5 months ago

Thanks, pinnyhead. This goes somewhat with timing for Presidential elections and it always seems that corporations (and markets) recover (as discussed in this thread before) before the public gets confident enough to jump back into the market and when they do they are coming in at the time they probably should be selling.

With that being said, hearing that Citi Bank is close to laying off 24,000 people doesn't scare me as much as your points on innovation and having services when you hit social security age. When I see so many hospitals closing, towns drying up, it makes me want to look for where the "next thing" is going to be to draw people, innovation and jobs so the communities get built up around them. On the other hand that doesn't guarantee that the new "boom towns" don't turn into shit shows or dry up if the technology doesn't work etc.

Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

This stuff can be good info for everyone. Traders, positive long term investors and even the burn baby burn folks.
All with less FUD! Fear, uncertainty, doubt.
Questions and answers
I am a long term buy and hold person am I ok? Yes you will be because money is constantly added like the past 40 years and this will keep asset values rising . BUT! From up here with the massive Trillion dollar annual deficits coming in and then “slowing” for a year at a time before they rise again you will have runs up but have to endure violent downturns more often to reach higher levels due to these large inflows and pauses.
I am the “system is fucked and we need a big reset” person can I do well? Yes also. But only if you buy when assets are low and sell at asset tops just before defciit spending slows. Like Now - buy when assets are low. 2025 back half into 2026 first half - sell when assets are high and govt slows spending.
For buy and holds and burn folks - let’s roadmap target SaP 6500 in 2025/ 2026 and 40% drop after. “Something for everyone” Joy and pain! This is based on the “money filling the pool back up at a bette trace than last year”
But I am waiting for a Big reset? 1% chance now sure. But maybe in 10-15 years. That would involve the govt pulling large amounts of money out of the economy “pay do the deficit”. This would cause unnecessary pain for no reason. But one thing to look out for is massive amounts of capital allocated by the govts going to inefficient areas. Inefficient areas don’t lower the costs of products and services and make peoples live better and more efficient. See anything now the govt is spending on heavily that could hurt us 10-15 years from now? Me? I wouldn’t wait for the big reset. The mini but large comparatively, painful resets we will have coming like in 2026 will be a good way to play it.
What about efficient places money can go? Innovation. A Personal computer, World Wide Web, faster cars with lower gas mileage than 40 years ago, safer operations, better ways to farm, iPhone, streaming, fiber cable, sociol media, essentially free phone calls that cost a $1 a minute 40 years ago. ,etc.
But govts didn’t directly invest and create all of that? Correct. The money added sloshes around and tends to find the right places. Like iPhones. Give smart folks money and they “tend” to come up with great ideas for it. They benefit yes but we live in the US and everyone usually ends up benefiting (IPhone) cough cough.
I am a money manager, so I can’t mention deficits and govt spending to clients. They would get angry and lose their shit! Correct. Most lose their shit. So don’t mention. Follow but don’t say anything to them. Make them money in uptimes and protect them during down times. It’s the main reason no one mentions this. Zig while the masses zag in their long held narratives and assumptions. Institutions follow this - trust me. But really most don’t care. Most folks on here won’t.
Can I trade this? Yes you can look at future scheduled monthly money additions like Govt interests payment, social security, Medicare etc and time or on the flip side a tank pull and rime around that.
What do I buy? It won’t give an exact answer on single stocks, earnings etc. It will just tell you when tens or hundreds of billions is coming in or out next month or next year.
I am scared that Social Security will run out of money and I am retiring soon?! The govt can add money to cover gaps in payments. Money is great and all but just as important is we have infrastructure providing food, shelter, healthcare, hospitals, etc. where the SS recipients payments can be used.
So are all assets backed by dollars the coming into in the economy for the govt through the Treasuty, meaning the total stock market value is equal to how many dollars are in the economy? No! All assets are leveraged. You can go on the debt clock. Org site and look at a the upper left to see “deficits” but also the bottom “total US assets. Trends up tend to be when the govt adds a lot of money in so the assets are in more demand and rise - 2020/21 F yeah!! When deficits slow down after a run up assets fall and can fall hard 2022. Boooooo! And this is based on leveraged highs and lows. That is why things swing harder than normal a will swing more with higher deficits which cause even more leverage. Pic below.
Assets on Debt clock are going back up now by the way. Last year they were diving down pretty hard. Real time “asset values”. There they are. [quoted image]

#19985 5 months ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Since you brought it up, what hardships (non health or relationship related) are you currently facing? Economic or otherwise?

Absolutely zero. I am set up with no real bills and house all paid for with very low property tax and have been buying stuff like normal. Mostly to keep myself busy like pinball machines to work on. But not everybody else is so lucky. I see it on the local news when they talk to hard working people especially at the gas pump. Then they act clueless as to why any of it is happening.

I have watched these economic cycles over and over for decades and it sure is starting to feel like a recession to me just by looking around. We won't know for sure until April though unless of course they change the definition again. Then that will be the time to really start buying.

#19986 5 months ago

Must of missed the before/after on the recession definition. Also, which “they” are we talking about? Fed reserve? Talking heads? pinnyheadhead ?

Can you help a brother out?

#19987 5 months ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Must of missed the before/after on the recession definition. Also, which “they” are we talking about? Fed reserve? Talking heads? pinnyheadhead ?
Can you help a brother out?

The recession definition was changed for sure, it was pretty funny listening to those trying to justify it.

#19988 5 months ago

Did it change from a fall in GDP in two successive quarters?

#19989 5 months ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Did it change from a fall in GDP in two successive quarters?

Yes. That still mattered, but they added a few other stipulations so they could say it wasn't actually a recession.

https://www.npr.org/2022/07/29/1114599942/wikipedia-recession-edits

#19990 5 months ago
Quoted from o-din:

Yes. That still mattered, but they added a few other stipulations so they could say it wasn't actually a recession.
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/29/1114599942/wikipedia-recession-edits

Ah, that's funny that it became a editor war in Wikipedia. Seems like by the most accepting definition we were in a slight recession last year and are no longer in one. It makes sense if you follow what the Market did.

#19991 5 months ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Ah, that's funny that it became a editor war in Wikipedia. Seems like by the most accepting definition we were in a slight recession last year and are no longer in one. It makes sense if you follow what the Market did.

It was real funny indeed!

Apparently last quarter we had good growth, but down over the last month. It might very well go into negative territory by the end of December and on into the next quarter. I factor that in, but also what I see around me. Nobody in the neighborhood is doing any home improvements and that is usually always going on. Houses are sitting and not being sold at the rapid rate they were last year. That, and traffic is unusually light as of late along with a few other things.

#19992 5 months ago

TY o-din , my mind totally whiffed on that. (2022 is a bit of a blur for me).

Edit: ty also for the protip o-din

The official arbiters of these things is the NBER...which like a good obtuse organization probably stayed inside during all that mudslinging.

#19993 5 months ago
Quoted from Oaken:

Dear lord, it's that "they".

85ijog (resized).jpg85ijog (resized).jpg

#19994 5 months ago
Quoted from o-din:

It was real funny indeed!
Nobody in the neighborhood is doing any home improvements and that is usually always going on. Houses are sitting and not being sold at the rapid rate they were last year. That, and traffic is unusually light as of late along with a few other things.

Well, we on opposite coasts, and it's exactly the opposite here. Fast house sales with bidding wars still, contractors booked out almost a year for home improvement, lots of new businesses opening up finally where ones shut down during the pandemic. The neighborhood I work in got a light rail station, so tons of apartments going up and lots of new restaurants opening.

#19995 5 months ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Well, we on opposite coasts, and it's exactly the opposite here. Fast house sales with bidding wars still, contractors booked out almost a year for home improvement, lots of new businesses opening up finally where ones shut down during the pandemic. The neighborhood I work in got a light rail station, so tons of apartments going up and lots of new restaurants opening.

That's good news! I guess Ca. has always been a little behind the rest of the country. Or before, because that was all going on here until recently. Oh wait! Opposite coasts? Isn't Seattle on the Pacific?

Either way doesn't matter much to me. I just like watching the trends and anything to do with numbers. Especially when something big happens. 2007-2010 was epic! And there were certainly deals to be had for anyone with cash.

#19996 5 months ago

60 days on the market and another $200k price drop! Would have sold above asking price in days a year ago. Another million+ off and I'm almost in like flint.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/207-S-Calle-Seville-San-Clemente-CA-92672/25143759_zpid/

#19997 5 months ago
Quoted from o-din:

That's good news! I guess Ca. has always been a little behind the rest of the country. Or before, because that was all going on here until recently. Oh wait! Opposite coasts? Isn't Seattle on the Pacific?
Either way doesn't matter much to me. I just like watching the trends and anything to do with numbers. Especially when something big happens. 2007-2010 was epic! And there were certainly deals to be had for anyone with cash.

Oh, you are California, duh, same coast, for some reason I thought you were from NYC and didn't even look! Seattle may be in an economic bubble, I think our high min wage has really pushed everyone's wages up the last couple years. And the high paying tech jobs and liberal politics means people still want to move here for jobs and life happiness and there's no more places to build, so demand continues. They've relaxed building laws to let apartments build higher and to allow 3 and 4 plexes to be built on single lots with a tear down, but it's not keeping up with the demand. I sold my rental in nearby Tacoma in September with a pre-market cash bid over what my agent thought I could sell it for, I took it and the 3% less commission costs.

#19998 5 months ago

Where is this recession everyone keeps talking about since early 2022?
Here is southern Ontario, busier than usual, traffic area, people spending like drinking sailors.

I don't see it,

#19999 5 months ago
#20000 5 months ago
Quoted from BRONX:

Where is this recession everyone keeps talking about since early 2022?

Quoted from nwpinball:

Well, we on opposite coasts, and it's exactly the opposite here. Fast house sales with bidding wars still, contractors booked out almost a year for home improvement, lots of new businesses opening up finally where ones shut down during the pandemic. The neighborhood I work in got a light rail station, so tons of apartments going up and lots of new restaurants opening.

Don't worry recession is coming if not already here but it's not evenly spread and it's not necessarily deep or visible. You are thinking more of a depression or deep 1970s recessions with the unemployment office lines, closing businesses and mass layoffs. Recession is just negative growth in the economy.

Rally looks intact today... buy dips for now I think.

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