(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#151 7 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

I was a former penny stock promoter... long story.. but trust me on this.. every one of those companies are a scam and have nothing but a great story behind them so people will buy shares as they are dumping.

KPG is the Wolf of Wall Street!

Quoted from kpg:

My winning ratio is only around 65-70% at best... I take loses 30%+ of all trades I open.

I applaud you for saying that.

Often share traders are similar to gamblers, in the way they only ever tell you about the wins and NEVER mention the losses.

rd

#152 7 years ago

I've had my losses for sure if you aren't losing you aren't in the market.

But going back to the big picture, stocks tend to go up. Sure there's bumps and hiccups now and then but generally up.

I hear so many people say the got out of Stocks because of this or that or even worse, after a huge loss and are playing with cash that does nothing for them.

#153 7 years ago

Anybody out there use Robinhood? I started using Robinhood a few months ago to dabble in the market. I got grandfathered in so I can make instant trades for free any time I want. I put in $50.00 and I'm up to $52.69 as of right now. I've been up and down, but I'm really just testing the waters. I don't have a substantial amount to invest, so this thread has been/will be really helpful for me. I'm still pretty young, so I'm just learning the ropes and trying to have a little fun with the market to see how it all works.

#154 7 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

I am still in the Dow short trade here- lots of selling pressure came in yesterday, but there is some consolidation and a bounce today which means people are still not scared yet. The DIA chart here (Dow) must stay under the former high or else I will close this position to avoid risking another market breakout. I am currently down $650 or so on my trade so far. If I am wrong I will simply take the loss and wait for another setup. Always always take your loss quickly if you are wrong and your trade setup works against you.

Perfect example of having a plan.

#155 7 years ago

I am not a very active trader. Usually buy and hold for atleast a year. Nothing fancy just stocks and etfs.

Since I am clearly not as advanced as most in this topic, and good tools or websites you use often in deciding on what to trade next?

#156 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

I disagree for myself. I believe I do better than an advisor who takes money out for his advice and may have ulterior motives to recommend some thing that pay better but probably are no better than low cost index funds.
I believe advisers are looking out for themselves (first) and when you said life insurance, that's a big money maker for these guys. Believe me, there is a reason these guys where fancy suits and drive nice cars it's not because they are looking for low cost investments. Funny book title on investment "Where are customers yachts?" About how advisors are not working for free far from it.
Read this about financial advisers-->> http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/21/where-are-the-customers-yachts.asp
Financial advisors are to me like weathermen, they don't know anything about where the market is headed and yet they will take a cut no matter if they are right or wrong.
I blindfolded monkey with a dartboard is just as good at predicting stock market as a paid professional.
Life insurance (whole life) and annuities are huge profits for salesman/advisors. Term life is what you want.
https://momanddadmoney.com/why-whole-life-insurance-is-a-bad-investment/

I have a question. you are talking about a percentage of managed assets financial adviser not a fee only based adviser, correct? I hired a fee only based adviser who went through all my finances and thought he did a pretty good job. He basically had me move all of my IRA away from the investment arm of my bank into Vanguard index funds. I was way too aggressive so some was placed in safer bond funds and even though there was a surrender fee he had me get rid of an annuity the bank sold me that I had no idea was so loaded with fees (he said in his opinion annuities should be illegal) and move that to Vanguard as well.

My adviser from the bank would meet with me once a year and had the fancy suit and the perfect haircut. I always felt like they were just ripping me off. They had my IRA invested in so many funds you couldn't keep track of it and they were charging 2% a year regardless of performance plus who knows how much on all the constant trading. I thought fee only based was the better way to go after using the adviser from my bank for a few years.

#157 7 years ago
Quoted from orangestorm87:

I am not a very active trader. Usually buy and hold for atleast a year. Nothing fancy just stocks and etfs.
Since I am clearly not as advanced as most in this topic, and good tools or websites you use often in deciding on what to trade next?

I watch a stock before I invest it. I want to get a feel for how it is moving, before I put money into it. I have about 50 large stocks on my watchlist. I also constantly read about small companies. I'm trying to find the next Apple.

#158 7 years ago
Quoted from BShing:

they were charging 2% a year regardless of performance

Holy shit, are you sure? That's highway robbery. What bank?

#159 7 years ago

85% cash

#160 7 years ago
Quoted from BShing:

I have a question. you are talking about a percentage of managed assets financial adviser not a fee only based adviser, correct? I hired a fee only based adviser who went through all my finances and thought he did a pretty good job. He basically had me move all of my IRA away from the investment arm of my bank into Vanguard index funds. I was way too aggressive so some was placed in safer bond funds and even though there was a surrender fee he had me get rid of an annuity the bank sold me that I had no idea was so loaded with fees (he said in his opinion annuities should be illegal) and move that to Vanguard as well.
My adviser from the bank would meet with me once a year and had the fancy suit and the perfect haircut. I always felt like they were just ripping me off. They had my IRA invested in so many funds you couldn't keep track of it and they were charging 2% a year regardless of performance plus who knows how much on all the constant trading. I thought fee only based was the better way to go after using the adviser from my bank for a few years.

You are correct.

Advisors can be good or bad. The fee based advisor you describe sounds perfect and the old advisor sounds like the bad kind I was thinking about.

Generally if the advisor is making money off the amount of your portfolio and also making money off the funds they advise you to buy (via kick backs 12b fees and such) that's bad. These are the guys with the fancy power point presentations, and the expensive suites and haircuts (etc..)

Vanguard is the best there is. Maybe there are other companies as good or nearly as good but generally I feel confident in saying Vanguard is looking out for their customers (they have a structure where the customers are also the owners of the company).

--
https://about.vanguard.com/what-sets-vanguard-apart/why-ownership-matters/

At Vanguard, there are no outside owners, and therefore, no conflicting loyalties. The company is owned by its funds, which in turn are owned by their shareholders—including you, if you're a Vanguard fund investor. Our unique client-owned structure allows us to return profits to our fund shareholders in the form of lower expenses. Low costs help our clients keep more of their returns, which can help them earn more money over time.

--

I see it every few months Vanguard will cut it's ER on more and more of it's funds. As they get bigger, they pass the savings on to me and you.

My ER (expense ratio) of my all Vanguard funds (average) is $8 for each $10K invested. Typically or in active managed funds that number would be like $120 for every $10K invested.

#161 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Generally if the advisor is making money off the amount of your portfolio and also making money off the funds they advise you to buy (via kick backs 12b fees and such) that's bad.

This is common practice. I know people in this racket.

#163 7 years ago
Quoted from Trekkie1978:

We spoke about selling AAPL calls, but there wasn't anything we liked. 120 calls in April were around $4.50. We both feel the stock is going to $130.

Apple will be going to $130 if repatriation of $$$ overseas is allowed at a 10% tax rate on stock buybacks alone.

Buying calls? Leaps? Or selling a covered call?

#165 7 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Apple will be going to $130 if repatriation of $$$ overseas is allowed at a 10% tax rate on stock buybacks alone.
Buying calls? Leaps? Or selling a covered call?

Covered calls.

I stay away from leaps. I'm not a fan of being tied to investment that long. Any options I do, it's a 4 month max.

Is it right or wrong, I can't say. It's just my personal preference.

#166 7 years ago

The problem with trading stocks is that in order to keep up with the aggregate market return over the course of 40+ years, you have to constantly be looking for the next trade.

The discussion on here to this point is a perfect example. It's a lot of work.

#167 7 years ago
Quoted from investingdad:

The problem with trading stocks is that in order to keep up with the aggregate market return over the course of 40+ years, you have to constantly be looking for the next trade.
The discussion on here to this point is a perfect example. It's a lot of work.

This is why I tell *everyone* just buy some index funds low cost Vanguard is great. S&P500 or Total Stock Market fund and just keep adding to it. Don't jump in and out.

There is a good case when you can sell stocks in the index fund its called Tax Loss Harvesting (TLH) which means you can sell to lock in your capital loss to offset cap gains or even offset earned income. But you don't sell and sit out of the market, you sell and IMMEDIATELY buy a substantially similar but not identical other ETF. TLH is the closest thing there is to a free lunch.

Plus (IMO) for everyone on the good side of a trade there is someone on the bad side of the trade. For example someone said DIS for $17 / share or when I bought MO for $18 / share. There were the other jokers who sold them to us. So it's not a winning game. It's like Texas Hold-em as played in a casino where someone wins and someone loses and the house gets a rake of each transaction.

Also people (both layman and professionals) are notoriously wrong in their predictions. I can't tell you how many times Buffett lost money on trades, IBM or APPL (the latest acquisitions) he bought just before steep corrections in those stocks. I'm not saying he was wrong on either of those stocks far from it but his timing was off. BUffett's team lost 15% on IBM ($2B loss on $13B). And he has an army of people with high degrees who do nothing but look at the market 24 hrs a day 7 days a week.

Jim Cramer he's wrong as often as he's right. He's like a broken clock. 2012 Jim Cramer sent out a message to urgent exit both BBY and HP and 8 months later both were up 115-120%

Plus, layman are notoriously (miserably) wrong in their 'market timing' it's like they often go out of their way to be wrong. The market has returned 6-8% historically but investors have gained like 1-2% because they're often jumping in and out.

My friend sold 20% of his stocks after Trump won so he'd have plenty of money to grab stocks on the cheap as the market was going down 10% don't you know?

I know people who jumped into cash after/ during the Great Recession. Ok smarty pants how's that working out for you as we've had one of the longest bull markets in history.

I posted this before, but I can post it again the stock market goes up. It's not a straight line (day to day) but over 200+ years it's going up. IBM has been around more than 100 years they don't stay in buisness by losing money. Coke has like 40% of the soft drink market share in the world, people drink soft drinks. People smoke cigarettes you can cry all you want how bad they are for you or how the taxes or lawsuits will make them more and more expensive but guess what people smoke and they're going to be smoking for as long as we are alive.

Companies are in buisness to make money and the surest way to make money is to grab a piece of the world / US economy.

Looks like $1 invested in US stock market 1802 would be worth $700K today. Ok they didn't have ETFs back then so it's not like you could have bought $1 of the US stock market and have it autocorrect as companies like Microsoft and IBM etc,, joined the US economy. But today that is exactly was a broad base ETF will do for you.
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#168 7 years ago

I don't agree that there is a bad side of the trade when talking stock. It is not zero sum.

When talking options trades, I agree. That is zero sum and there is a corresponding loser for each winner.

Otherwise, Rai, I agree with what you posted.

#169 7 years ago
Quoted from investingdad:

I don't agree that there is a bad side of the trade when talking stock. It is not zero sum.
When talking options trades, I agree. That is zero sum and there is a corresponding loser for each winner.
Otherwise, Rai, I agree with what you posted.

Perhaps I misspoke, it's not as simple as a poker game where one side wins and one side loses because the stocks change in value along the way and pay dividends. It'd be like in a poker game you bet $50 blue chip but when you turn it in its worth $60 and btw it gave you $1 in dividends.

But on each trade there is a party on each side. One guy sold Apple when it was $12 and one guy bought it. The person who sold it didn't think it would be worth 20x more in a decade, and they could have actually have made money on Apple maybe they bought it for $11 but the point being both sides take their chances and generally in hindsight you can see who made out and who lost.

#170 7 years ago

As I said way back, Bonds are another asset class. Controversial? I don't know, I don't know. I will say that while bonds are not sexy you don't brag to your friends about how you just got a $300 interest payment from your bond. But to be honest stocks and bonds go together like peanutbutter and jelly. Or like bacon and eggs. I suppose you can have one without the other but they are complementary.

I'm recommending 20-40% bonds. Myself I have 25% bonds. I don't like them, they are not fun and they can lose money. But IMO you need them like when you mom said eat your carrots. It's not fun but it's good for you.

Because Bonds are not correlated with stocks, and because we don't know when the next bad time in stocks will be. It could be today it could be in 10 years I don't know. People were buying stocks in 1987 the week before it crashed 22% in just one day. Who knew?

Here's a good chart

image (resized).pngimage (resized).png

#171 7 years ago

Black Monday look it up https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)

45% loss in one month.
image (resized).pngimage (resized).png
image (resized).pngimage (resized).png

#173 7 years ago

As we are in our early 40s, I've started to transition our portfolio to a higher bond weight. Over the last five or so years, I've moved us closer to 25% bonds. Mostly I've done this by weighting new contributions heavily to bonds.

However, I gave it a big shove over the summer with a rebalance. Just in time for bond prices to take a dump.

That's how it goes sometimes when you recalibrate. You don't like bond funds until the next equity melt down...which is absolutely going to happen. I just don't know if it will be tomorrow or five years from now.

As we approach 50, I will probably let it go up to 30%, but no higher.

#174 7 years ago

Yes bond prices go down BUT yield goes up.

So when you had $100k in bonds and were getting paid $2k interest, now your bonds (or I the future) may be worth $80K but you are getting $4K in interest.

Note I just made up those figures but the point is, bond prices don't go down without something else going up. It's like a squishy water balloon you squeeze one place and another gets bigger.

And with individual bonds you will get back your determined price if you hold it to maturity and with bond funds your fund may hold thousands of bonds and as they mature or are sold they'll be replaced with cheaper and/or higher yield bonds.

Suppose you had a 10 year $1k bond that paid you $50/year for 10 years. Hold it to maturity and you get $50 X 10 plus $1000. But low and behold next week bonds come out 10 year $1K and its paying you $70/year. Your old bond is still worth the same $50 X 10 plus $1000 but if you wanted to sell it, no one would give you face value because they can get a fancy new bond paying higher interest. They'll give you $900 for you bond. So they get it at a discount and while they still get $50/year that's a higher interest rate because they bought it at a discount.

It's simple but not simple for people to understand and I'm talking high quality or treasury bonds that have never defaulted they are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government and they have never defaulted that's why China and Japan and and retired folks and most of the world buys them. High quality corporate bonds are also safe but not quite as safe as US treasury bonds.

I was reading on this, the author said Bonds were like brakes on your car stocks were the engine. You don't really want a car with all engine, you need some brakes or you could crash.

#175 7 years ago

curious, how many of you are strictly in stock/bonds?

Obviously RD has done well in real estate. Anyone else have rentals?
I have a few single family homes and have done well thus far. I am trying to figure out a longer term plan that is less hassle and more money for my time.

Basically I started with the plan of building to 6-10 single family homes and then think about a like kind exchange to something bigger/consolidated. Thus far I have found that single families are pretty solid for the increase in value and rent over time, ease to find good tenants, and ability to keep tenants for more than just 1 year at a time.

Down sides to single families are that they always do a crappier job on required outdoor maintainence then you would like, plus you have the multiple roofs/yards/etc... compared to a consolidated property.

Thinking of 4/8/16 units in the future but the calibur of renter obviously goes down and brings in new headaches.
Also thinking of some mixed commercial/residentail but that is a whole new world to enter in to.

I am struggling with finding real world tips and research short of quiting my current real job to go work for a few different management companies in town and that is not desirable as I liek my regular gig.

I have the advantage of knowing my side of the city VERY well and have mapped out planned redistricting/redevelopment. I know in particular of a few places that are slated for large scale changes in 2022-2024 due to some major artery changes for roads, but dont have the funds/ability to get on these properties just yet. They are going to double in value in 5-8 years and would be an easy resell (purchase at 600k now and will be worth 1.2 at minimum after redistricting.) They are less desirable currently due to location but that is turning quick in the next few years as plans become more public/solidified. I have thought alot about making the jump into commerical but honestly dont know where to get started and am risk adverse on this (things are good and relatively stress free with current properties).

Advice from those with experience/knowledge is appreciated as I continue to think things over.

#176 7 years ago

I own my one home and a second vacation home (no rental) and the rest is Stocks and Bonds. No annuities, no whole life, no rental property.

However I do own a separate class of stocks REITS which are pseudo real estate, they are required to return most of their income every year. It's like being a real estate owner but not having to get calls at night because the toilet doesn't flush.

Note you don't need REITS because they are included in total stock market funds, but if you want a bit extra you can buy a percentage (tilt) but please keep it in a tax shelter because it gives a lot more dividends than typical stocks.

#177 7 years ago

Forgot to mention my pinball collection that are going to be worth bank when I get old and no longer want to play. I'm long on pinball machines.

#178 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

I own my one home and a second vacation home (no rental) and the rest is Stocks and Bonds. No annuities, no whole life, no rental property.
However I do own a separate class of stocks REITS which are pseudo real estate, they are required to return most of their income every year. It's like being a real estate owner but not having to get calls at night because the toilet doesn't flush.
Note you don't need REITS because they are included in total stock market funds, but if you want a bit extra you can buy a percentage (tilt) but please keep it in a tax shelter because it gives a lot more dividends than typical stocks.

What are your favorite REITS to own?

The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

#179 7 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

What are your favorite REITS to own?
The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

I'm a company guy, I mean if you ask me what I own just assume it's Vanguard. I own VNQ and don't really know how it does or doesn't do against its peers. Fact is that's the only REIT offered in my retirement account but if I was self directed I'd just have that as well.

#180 7 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

What are your favorite REITS to own?
The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

Pay attention to the yield to the price you payed as when a etf/stock go's up the yield drops even if the div stays the same

#181 7 years ago
Quoted from kpg:

What are your favorite REITS to own?
The ones I have typically bought and held were AGNC, ARR, and NLY. They used to pay a much higher dividend, especially AGNC... but they still pay out very nicely and with rising rates, I expect them to rebalance their portfolios and increase the dividend slowly but surely- we'll see.

What happened is Bonds have been paying poor yields for way long so people bought something that was giveing higher yield typically Reits or high dividend stocks like tobacco stocks.

This raises the PE of Reits raises the share price but lowers the dividend payout.

As bonds rise yield likely people will sell Reits and their share price will go down and yield will go up but payouts probably stay the same.

#182 7 years ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

curious, how many of you are strictly in stock/bonds?
Obviously RD has done well in real estate. Anyone else have rentals?
I have a few single family homes and have done well thus far. I am trying to figure out a longer term plan that is less hassle and more money for my time.
Basically I started with the plan of building to 6-10 single family homes and then think about a like kind exchange to something bigger/consolidated. Thus far I have found that single families are pretty solid for the increase in value and rent over time, ease to find good tenants, and ability to keep tenants for more than just 1 year at a time.
Down sides to single families are that they always do a crappier job on required outdoor maintainence then you would like, plus you have the multiple roofs/yards/etc... compared to a consolidated property.
Thinking of 4/8/16 units in the future but the calibur of renter obviously goes down and brings in new headaches.
Also thinking of some mixed commercial/residentail but that is a whole new world to enter in to.
I am struggling with finding real world tips and research short of quiting my current real job to go work for a few different management companies in town and that is not desirable as I liek my regular gig.
I have the advantage of knowing my side of the city VERY well and have mapped out planned redistricting/redevelopment. I know in particular of a few places that are slated for large scale changes in 2022-2024 due to some major artery changes for roads, but dont have the funds/ability to get on these properties just yet. They are going to double in value in 5-8 years and would be an easy resell (purchase at 600k now and will be worth 1.2 at minimum after redistricting.) They are less desirable currently due to location but that is turning quick in the next few years as plans become more public/solidified. I have thought alot about making the jump into commerical but honestly dont know where to get started and am risk adverse on this (things are good and relatively stress free with current properties).
Advice from those with experience/knowledge is appreciated as I continue to think things over.

As a young carpenter starting out many moons ago, I quickly realized there was no pension plan in my line of work and most of the guys over 40 were working in pain every day because they couldn't afford not to. Bad backs, blown out knees, etc were all too common for my liking. So I started buying up land when and where I could find it in my spare time and building rental properties on it during the slow season. Taking that path has been good to me, so I try to pass on anything that I think might be helpful.

I would say that "typically", you're going to cashflow more on a per unit basis with multi-unit properties as compared to single families. That, however is a very broad statement that has a lot of factors that can change things, such as the purchase price, financing rate, state of repair, local tax rate, occupancy rate, etc. But a dozen units under one roof has always provided me with much more free cash flow than a dozen single families, for less work on my end to boot.

What jumped out at me in your post was the assumption that moving up in size of property means accepting a drop in resident quality. There are good, hard working, decent people in every area and at all income levels. A good resident screening process makes all the difference. That and being willing and able to keep a unit vacant for a month or two if necessary to find the right new resident. A bad tenant is MUCH more expensive than a vacancy.

Our screening process begins with our ads, progresses through the phone interview, viewing and application process and is designed specifically to have the deadbeats self select themselves out of our process so we don't have to.

The next step after finding the right new resident is keeping them, and we've also worked out some simple things that help on the retention side. With proper screening and retention techniques, we've been able to get our average occupancy to 7 years as of now with a goal of getting it to 10. That's in both multi unit and single family, while keeping rents at market levels, with very, very few rent collection issues.

Of course a bad tenant slips through the cracks now and then, and a good resident occasionally turns bad, but that's an occupational hazard I'll take over climbing around a frozen roof in the dead of winter every day of the week.

Since you seem to be interested in gaining information/experience on the operational side of this business, I'm happy to share our ads, phone interview questions, application, etc, as well as explain our reasons for doing things the way we do, in the order we do. But it's a lengthy conversation best taken private. PM me after the holiday's are over if you're interested.

Also, I'd recommend Jeff Taylor's stuff over at mrlandlord.com. At least on the operational/tenant management side of things. Several years back, I booked into a conference he held in Orlando that was strictly about managing property. My intention was to get the write off for a preplanned vacation. We were going to Orlando, so why not? I didn't have high expectations, but I found our management philosophies very closely aligned.

#183 7 years ago

thanks trevorm and I will message you after the holidays for a discussion.

Would be greatly appreciated! Honestly would be a huge help and the screening, retention, and management process is my least favorite so the more I can learn and implement, the better!

I look forward to the talk and happy holidays!

#184 7 years ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

thanks trevorm and I will message you after the holidays for a discussion.
Would be greatly appreciated! Honestly would be a huge help and the screening, retention, and management process is my least favorite so the more I can learn and implement, the better!
I look forward to the talk and happy holidays!

Is real estate hard to manage? Taxes, tenants, insurance, upkeep etc,, seems like a full time job. I have enough on my plate keeping two non-rental houses up and running.

#185 7 years ago
Quoted from rai:

Is real estate hard to manage? Taxes, tenants, insurance, upkeep etc,, seems like a full time job. I have enough on my plate keeping two non-rental houses up and running.

I dont find it hard to manage. Upkeep is easy and I do the majority myself (I am a handy guy). Find good tenants and they pay rent on time and take care of the place. Most months I just take the money to the bank.

I keep a spreadsheet and write everything off on taxes.

I pay a very good tax man and he is worth every penny on what he saves me and keeps me legal.

I find the hunting for and screening tenants part to be a PITA, but in the long term I make good money for doing it as a side hobby and once I have a few places paid off then things will snowball a bit for me.

#186 7 years ago
Quoted from rotordave:

KPG is the Wolf of Wall Street!

I applaud you for saying that.
Often share traders are similar to gamblers, in the way they only ever tell you about the wins and NEVER mention the losses.
rd

Thanks man. I could never trust the advice of someone who claims to be right all the time and never take losses. It's part of the game.. the only way to win is to know how to manage losing when it happens. Cut the loss and be patient for another setup.. there's no perfect/fail proof way to do it!

#187 7 years ago
Quoted from Whysnow:

I know in particular of a few places that are slated for large scale changes in 2022-2024 due to some major artery changes for roads, but dont have the funds/ability to get on these properties just yet. They are going to double in value in 5-8 years and would be an easy resell (purchase at 600k now and will be worth 1.2 at minimum after redistricting

Those are exactly the deals you need to take advantage of. Inside information is GOLD and you don't want to be that guy who says "awwwww I wish I bought those places when I had the chance"

As an example, my house is built on 7.5 acres which is 500 metres outside the current town boundary. It is currently zoned rural land, but it is just a question of time before it is rezoned. Almost happened this year actually. I bought the land in 2006 for $650,000 with the view that it will be rezoned in 10-20 years. In the meantime I built the house for $600k and I'm using the land. House and land is now valued at 1.7m. So it's already a win regardless. But when/if it gets rezoned it'll be worth $5-6m (at todays prices) as you can put about 50 good size house sections on the rest of the land.

If it doesn't get rezoned, no matter, it's still a winner. But when it does (it will, just a question of when) it's a real winner.

I generally stick to commercial only. In fact I just sold my only residential rental property last week, to get cash in my "waiting for the downturn, the commercial bargains are coming" fund.

I don't know about the USA, but in NZ commercial has a lot of advantages
- tenant pays all outgoings (taxes, water, insurance etc)
- tenant pays for upkeep of the property (although I usually do it for free for them)

Generally I am returning 10% per annum on them, plus capital gains on top (which don't matter because I generally ain't selling)

The downside of Commercial is tenants can be harder to get, especially in a recession, and commercial is harder to get into (banks often ask for 30-40% deposit when you first start out)

Like anything, whatever you do, knowledge is king.

There is a bargain in every market, you just have to be clever/informed enough to spot the bargain and have the balls to trust your conviction and go hard to maximise it.

rd

#188 7 years ago
Quoted from rotordave:

Those are exactly the deals you need to take advantage of. Inside information is GOLD and you don't want to be that guy who says "awwwww I wish I bought those places when I had the chance"

I want to echo what Dave has said here. If you know something others either don't know yet, or haven't acted on, and you REALLY know you know it, find a way to take action. One or two deals can set you up for life when timing, circumstances and knowledge come together.

As an example, I've got several apartment buildings sitting on lots that were originally zoned for single family homes. I purchased them based on their value as a house lot. What I knew, from actively buying, building and developing in that general area, was that obtaining a "development agreement" (the term used in our area for a zoning change) on those lots for multi unit construction was highly likely.

Those purchases worked out very well and confirmed forever for me that it's worth the skullsweat required to figure out how to pull a deal together.

#189 7 years ago

Alright the water seems warm so I'll jump in. I've been contributing to 401K since 21 - max out. Since the crash, I still max out 401K, but have kept bonus money in cash. I just haven't felt good trusting the market, but it's stupid to keep that much cash.

Conservative late 40ish investor. Vanguard mentioned by some. What advice does this savvy group have? Any specific safe investments?

#190 7 years ago

Closed out my TVIX position as the market isnt doing much here - still holding DXD and seeing how the market shakes out

#191 7 years ago
Quoted from badbilly27:

Alright the water seems warm so I'll jump in. I've been contributing to 401K since 21 - max out. Since the crash, I still max out 401K, but have kept bonus money in cash. I just haven't felt good trusting the market, but it's stupid to keep that much cash.
Conservative late 40ish investor. Vanguard mentioned by some. What advice does this savvy group have? Any specific safe investments?

If you believe the Trump train will continue as I do with tax cuts and deregulation then stage in your investment over the next month.

It's impossible to time the market consistently

Look at the Spider sector funds for .14 basis points. Materials, Industrials, technology and energy are my top sectors now. XLE, XLK, XLB, XLI

There are a ton on ETFs in most asset classes for .06-.08 basis points a year. Schwab and Vanguard are in a price war right now

Never buy a mutual fund. High fees and hidden costs

Apple stock poised for a big iPhone 8 cycle upgrade along with growing service revenue. 2% dividend no brainer.

Bud is on sale right now post Miller merger. Having to divest part of its line due to anti trust issues

Home Depot, Visa, Costco

Stz Constellation Brands, wine and wineries

Oreilly auto for the all US play and zero currency risk. Take a look at that chart!

Chipmaker Skyworks Swks from a valuation standpoint

Lockheed LMT, LLL and Northrop in defense

To name a few. With Trump, sectors are a good option now. Buy and hold. Don't trade

Do your own due diligence though!

#192 7 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Apple stock poised for a big iPhone 8 cycle upgrade along with growing service revenue. 2% dividend no brainer.

Sincerely appreciate the comments. Great recommendations.

I need to educate myself on best Vanguard instrument to invest in. Been told by a few people - Vanguard.

Funny you mentioned Apple. Been tracking them for long time for fun (and because I work in tech sector). Bought heavy when at $95 because it was ridiculous with the amount of cash in bank, recurring revenue, even with iPhone slowing. I firmly believe it's a $120 stock - or prime for another stock split. Plus, me loves dividends. Same reason own Verizon - although that one is starting to worry me future wise.

Gonna investigate your recommendations. So hard to trust "financial advisors" at Fidelity. Most are fresh out of school following formulas. No offense intended to anyone - but prefer people who lost, learned and now winning in the long run for advice.

#193 7 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

If you believe the Trump train will continue as I do with tax cuts and deregulation then stage in your investment over the next month.
It's impossible to time the market consistently
Look at the Spider sector funds for .14 basis points. Materials, Industrials, technology and energy are my top sectors now. XLE, XLK, XLB, XLI
There are a ton on ETFs in most asset classes for .06-.08 basis points a year. Schwab and Vanguard are in a price war right now
Never buy a mutual fund. High fees and hidden costs
Apple stock poised for a big iPhone 8 cycle upgrade along with growing service revenue. 2% dividend no brainer.
Bud is on sale right now post Miller merger. Having to divest part of its line due to anti trust issues
Home Depot, Visa, Costco
Stz Constellation Brands, wine and wineries
Oreilly auto for the all US play and zero currency risk. Take a look at that chart!
Chipmaker Skyworks Swks from a valuation standpoint
Lockheed LMT, LLL and Northrop in defense
To name a few. With Trump, sectors are a good option now. Buy and hold. Don't trade
Do your own due diligence though!

You pegged it on Mutual funds. Just buy the S&P and if you are going to buy the S&P then you might as well by SPXL and remove 2/3 to less risky investments and then also buy 2.5 year S&P options. With even a smaller fraction. Has earned me 10-12% per year with only 15-18% exposure and the rest in more stable income. A great way to protect the downside. if you model this you can get to about worst case 8% loss on a 50% down market. We have ran this model every which way. It is an excellent way to invest.

#194 7 years ago

With bonds, the Barclays aggregate index had its worst month in Nov in 25 yrs

I hate bonds as an asset class right now. 35 yrs of declining rates and now it's time to move gradually higher over the next decade

I had positioned fixed income in interest sensitive bonds since the summer

FLOT, BKLN, preferreds like FPE and others.

TIPS should work well as inflation heats up

Tactical bond etfs

All in all, not exciting

#195 7 years ago
Quoted from Classic_Stern:

Just buy the S&P and if you are going to buy the S&P then you might as well by SPXL and remove 2/3 to less risky investments and then also buy 2.5 year S&P options. With even a smaller fraction.

Sorry, I don't mean to be thick today. Can you buy S&P as a stock? SPXL as well? Sounds interesting strategy not sure if those are specific stocks you purchase.

#196 7 years ago
Quoted from badbilly27:

Sorry, I don't mean to be thick today. Can you buy S&P as a stock? SPXL as well? Sounds interesting strategy not sure if those are specific stocks you purchase.

SPXL is a leveraged ETF from Direxion. They have all sorts of leveraged long/short etf's. I wouldn't use these to trade, spread is too much.

However, if you have conviction that a certain asset class is going to move in a direction then you can leverage your dollars. This one is 3X

52 week range is $56 to $113, can be some wild swings.

I like the Spider sectors, that way I can cut out Health care, Real estate and Utilities right now from the S&P500

ETF's trade like a stock. Another benefit of them versus mutual funds, you get to control your taxes much better via tax harvesting this time of year. Can't do that with a mutual fund.

ETF's trade instantly, mutual funds settle at the end of the day.

#197 7 years ago

Dow breaking 20k this week??

#198 7 years ago

Magic eight ball says: Yes!

#199 7 years ago

Cashed out the rest of my Roth and I'm transferring it to Prosper (which is also set up as a Roth account). So it's really just a rollover.

I manage most of my money on E*Trade with most of it being stuck in index funds.

#200 7 years ago
Quoted from Astropin:

Cashed out the rest of my Roth and I'm transferring it to Prosper (which is also set up as a Roth account). So it's really just a rollover.
I manage most of my money on E*Trade with most of it being stuck in index funds.

I don't even see a Roth as an option on Prosper's site.

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