Most likely lol. Maybe buy some bbby too

plowpusher
I would not say idiot, but I sure was, in 2008 when I was attempting to do what you are trying to achieve here in 2023. I lost big on national city. Good luck my friend I don't have the stomache

What's everybody's take on the news stories which talk about Russia, China, Brasil, and India moving away from the dollar to trade in other currencies? This has been threatened before, but this time it seems like there is more chance they are serious. If other countries stop accepting the dollar or only accept it at a greatly devalued rate, what defensive moves are best? Or is this all just a tempest in a teapot?

i hear stuff like this every few years. When it actually starts to happen worry about it.
My vote is teapot tempest.

sbmania

Threat??? Or may we say the rest of the world is finally getting smarter? Remember before the $usd rise to world currency King it used to be the British pound. The British pound is nowhere close to the king of currency reserve status. The U.S govt and Federal reserve have been abusing the USA dollar for too long now. The usage of usd$ currency is being used as economic weapon, it started off punishing smaller nations to do what U S tells them to do or else..... Now That philosophy is trying to apply to larger countries and it's not going to end well. I think the world knows that the USd$ is a big bubble, there's now real options available to substitute the $usd and you can basically have your massively over printed dollars, we don't really need it anymore! And good luck!!!

The best thing to do in this scenario is basic. Buy good name boring corporations that have presence all over the world, good track record of paying and hiking dividends and you will be fine.

If you want to dabble in some real high end quality goods makers that's a good bet to. LVMH stock in Paris is great. Look at any chart 1yr, 2yr, 5yr, max chart it's incredible..... Unfortunately it's now north of $800euros/share. I believe there's a u.s depositary listing but I don't see it coming up. There's also other high end brands aswell in the u.s.a as well, a few more in Paris. But with anything and everything there's risks. Long term...
Historically can't go wrong with American Express, visa, coca cola, Johnson and Johnson, Toromont(Toronto), ,Canadian big banks, dupont, Berkshire stock. Enbridge, Suncor, I kind of missed the boat yet again but Tesla looked so good in January, f&#k me again!!!!! You know the boring ones.... Perhaps dabble a bit in intel ?As for the us$ the end will come but it's hard to predict when. Best hedge is a good multinational brand stock with a history of paying and hiking dividends. Also keep a good eye on tech. The world is going to change day & night in the next 10yrs in the tech field, so much that it will effect everything. I can't give you names because some of these companies haven't been invented yet or are so small today that the names are not in our faces yet, Besides technology stocks unfortunately isn't my niche. But can you go wrong with salesforce, Microsoft, Intel, apple, Nvidia, micron, Broadcom, cisco, meta, alphabet, etc...???

I'm also open to any new suggestions or any tech names.......

I think it’s more serious this time.
There’s a lot of different dynamics at play this time around.
If and when we lose oil deal it’s going to get ugly. Our oil reserves are at lowest level in decades, OPEC is cutting output for the rest of year, China is investing billions in refineries to open EoY.

Just my opinion.

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Pdxmonkey

it's incredible how your 2000 & 2020 map shift can describe a thousands of words with basically an awkward open mouth face. Looks like the USA is barely even moving goods around anymore. In Europe all they have left as a major customers is Italy, U.k, Portugal, Finland. How much things have changed since 911.
One thing though since 911 U.S.A corporations continue to dominate the market place. Big declines in heavy industries though, I guess Tesla in its way is propping up slumping USA car producers, steel making is a fraction of what it once was, domestic manufacturing has been declining steadily since the reegan administration. There could be some demand to build back in America going forward, companies like Intel, Samsung have big plans to produce in America and bye bye Asia.

American problems are also found in western Europe.
The world met it's inflation targets of 1-3% during the 80s 90s 2000s by sourcing out its GDP to cheap labour countries and bringing back in for cheaper. It worked, but now we are dependent on this practice because we destroyed our manufacturing capabilities domestically. The old outsourcing ways are now becoming pricey, our new "socialist" way to spend and govern is also becoming to expensive to keep everything happy. These problems are real with no real solution in sight. Until we address these issues the usd$ & reputation will be effected. When it becomes more evident that the USA economy is officially living beyond its means with no chance of ever correcting it the US$ will be devalued & toast for good. The only thing at the moment that USA citizens can look forward to keep this Ponzi scheme alive for a wee bit longer is pretty simple and nothing to do with America......... Most places around the world are in a much worse situation so this funky $usd and the ballooning USA crazy debt is better than any other offer around believe it or not! And for the time being still kind of safe, lol..

To me it's basically this. Imagine you need a new car and you have only these options at a brand new dealer. $19,000 Ford Pinto, $17,000 dodge k car, $20,000Chevy Cavalier or a $80,000 Tesla that you cannot afford, but comes delivered to you with no money down, 0% financing and no credit checks..... Get it. This is what is currently keeping the economy going until it goes the other way.

Hey let’s add N Korea to the list also! Oh Iranian currency for me! It’s a riot!

It’s Laughable!

Let’s look. The economies of the countries above are flat out based on corruption. They have so much wrong with them. They have no “original” ideas. They are set up based on those in power staying there for decades and sucking the life out of those who want to legitimately work and help the people of those societies. Now is a new angle which is they want other countries buying stuff from them with the “new corrupt currency”, then going in debt to those shitty countries above and then getting influenced by them. Great!!

If you live in the countries above and have a good business idea that can help citizens of that society - great!! Get ready to pay up to those in power! You want open a factory??? Leaders say -
You need to use this guy for concrete, this guy for steel, this guy for windows, and hire my relatives to work at the factory after it’s built and they won’t do anything - nada. Don’t like it? Fuck you! Pay me!! Do as I say also! Look at BABA.

It’s like a bunch of gangster families saying - hey let’s set up a currency that we can all use?? F the dollar?! Trust us!

It’s a joke. There is a reason why those countries fester and do shitty. They suck. Don’t agree? Let’s name some great innovations in the last 20 year from any of those above countries?? Hmmmmmmmmm? Why would they do well? Caste system anyone?? Are women allowed to work in these places? Leader starting to lose power from bad decisions? Start a war then like Russia! China? On deck for war - maybe? Once again don’t agree - invest in them. Good luck.

Where do I get my info with wonderful 2 min reads online??? No I don’t. I know folks from each of those countries……..well! They tell me how things work. But they are here in the US now. They love the US. I am Glad for them. I Appreciate them.

US not perfect no no but leaving the US economy for any of the above will F you. China Russia Middle East etc will gain the trust of other countries and then suck the life out of them!

I am thinking of and looking at you third world countries - want some grain or oil or fertilizer for your crops or some clothes for your citizens? Great here you go! Oh there is a drought?! Think - Fuck you pay me! Can’t pay?? Now you are in debt to us - let’s put “china’s or Russia’s guy” in power in your country and we can work together! See?

But sure - folks think the US is greedy. Read posts from last few weeks.

Did I come on too strong with my view?
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pinnyheadhead

You offered a different viewpoint a different angle. No you didn't come on to strong. Interesting read. But one thing Mr, a big part of the world is tired by the USA police, the $usd and USA fiscal policies. Even though your read makes alot of sense, the mass in general wants an alternative options in which if successful will make every American life wake up and realize they just lost there security blanket! But I wouldn't bet against great American multinational corporations

pinnyheadhead

I forgot to mention that the USA from the countries you mentioned earlier has to import 10mil barrels of oil every day to function. Also labor. The USA natural birth rate is not enough alone to sustain a natural.rise in GDP and service all of its obligations. Oil & labor are the 2 most important inputs for a world powerhouse. Anyways have a nice night.

Anyone buying TD Bank this week?

This is why the U.S. need immigration reform to keep growing our labor market, but there hasn't been alot of support for that of late.

nwpinball
I'm not sure why either? Puzzling since there's labor shortages everywhere you look and throughout the world. Today's immigrants have more choices and places to choose from. Depending on there skill level and work demand, today's immigrants can workout a sweet deal with employers.

It’s a BIG topic!

Yes the United States leverages it’s power with the dollar being all around the world. Perfectly wonderful use of the leverage? No, no mistakes were made, but a lot of good for sure. I would say at least the US has provided many innovations that have made life better for the whole world though. Look at world poverty plummet over the last 50 years. Has had some problems yes but the US adds more than any other world power would be my guess?

Which is better? Technology/innovation, oil or factories? I know which one I would pick. The US is a great place for innovation - period.

We have oil. It’s just more expensive to get out of the earth then other countries. We can get it if needed. We need to be careful because if we dig dig dig the outside the US lower priced Oil per barrel competition can undercut US supplies with lower pricing to hurt our companies. What we “maybe” should do is work with US and our friends in Canada and elsewhere with the energy companies so they won’t dig too much unless needed but also work on a minimum floor on their product so they can’t get squeezed by the Russia opec competition? Just an idea.

I used to be worried about the national debt. I actually thought we had to pay it down. I studied MMT since last Summer and now feel the national debt is simply “the money supply”. Not sure which comes first the money added to the debt or the innovation then comes the money but since the Debt (money supply) blew up during the 1980’s we have been on an innovation tear that has helped everyone rich or poor in this country and the world. It has created opportunities, wealth, and prosperity for many.

We had an example of “too much money sent out” during 2020-21. We are paying for it now but I think we are about to go on another run of good economic times and have the innovation that comes along with it. I am bullish this decade because of the deficit spending (money supply) and the innovative products that will come with it. Buy stocks now for it if are not long. Buy companies that will suck up the money that will keep coming in the years ahead.

I think we get new all time highs by year end. The money supply says we will. Higher rate yields will pay out 4-5% to GDP this year. Thats a lot! This is 1982 and folks don’t see what’s coming.

Speaking of 1982 I don’t think leaders understand the debt which is simply the money supply. Even Reagan said he had regrets on the spending and wish he could have done more to cap and pay it down. He had it wrong IMO! Don’t pull money out of an 1980’s economy that just expanded into personal and business computers to just to pay down the debt! No! Did that sound like it would have been a good idea looking back from where we are today?

So we can print as much money as we want whenever we want! Alright. What’s the problem?? The main thing slowing us down is economic capacity, which is how much we can produce with our current amount of workers, supplies, machinery, innovation, technology etc.. Also too many rules and regulations “possibly” getting in the way and also taxes and credits. Since we can print all the money we want, I feel taxes and credits are used to control one’s behavior. You smoke? Let’s tax cigs $4 a pack - Now you are trying to quit. You don’t want an EV? Here is $7500 credit - hey that Tesla is kind of nice!

Taxing work and investing is interesting. The harder/smarter you work and/or more productive your investment into something ends up being the higher your taxes will be and not just in dollars but the percentages go up. We live in a country where we can just add money to the money supply whenever we want, so why do we put a lid on millions of creative/innovative citizens with taxing them more for working harder and or taking risks which could come up with the next great life changing idea for us all? We don’t know how it work out but would be interesting to find out.

I will say it - we don’t need to tax to pay our bills. The taxes coming in fall way short. We could just leave more out in the economy and watch what happens with people having more control of the money and govt have less to spend. Before you say what a disaster this would be one has to also think they have no idea what will happen. It could be amazing! We add a lot to the debt each year. And no we don’t “pay all the bills with taxes”. No not even close.

The second part of me “not minding the deficit spending” is the money starts at one place and moves on and sloshes around and “seems “ to go to better places. So a dollar can start with a SS payment and may move on to a gambling casino, strip club, liquor store, drug dealer, a pack of cigarettes and get paid to store employee who invests in some small start up of 5 college kids who have a crazy innovation idea that just may work! Get it? Like I don’t mind social programs. Snap payments help folks and money moves on once again hopefully to a great place. Do I like Govt waste like $2500 toilet seats? No. But the $2500 “usually” will go off to a better place sooner or later.

But with all the deficit money sent out including social spending we do have to be reminded that we are the worlds currency. If we send out “too much” money to folks who don’t deserve or need it “whatever that may mean to you in the wide spectrum of folks who receive money from the govt - rich to poor” we have to realize that “too” much largesse here at home has an effect on the world. Wish the powers that be would understand this more.

I don’t follow GDP. I don’t find it useful. Like innovation has been “deflationary” so instead of me buying $500 in CD’s a year now I stream music for $150 a year. But that drops GDP. Shrug. Low GDP has happened for the last 15 years but all of what we use is so much better. Just me.

It’s a lot to go over. I am trying to keep,it as simple as possible. But key is debt is money supply. It tends to go to the rights places. A major pull happens when too much money goes to too many places that are not productive . Don’t fear the debt - but watch it for inconsistencies like 2020/21. With investing go long during higher deficit times (2020/21) and go short during lower spending times (2022). It’s that simple. Definitely fear pulling money out of the economy to pay the debt down. I will be out of the market if that happens.

Here is the money supply info that comes out daily that no one cares about. I use it to invest also. This year is not surprising to me with all all money going out, Including “higher rates and COLA’s”. Saw it coming last year.

So Pause here until the April 15 tax pull, then more upside grind. As long as we don’t cap the debt (money supply) in June then ATH’s by year end. Buy stocks. Everything oddly looks good. Not much overpriced.

https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/issues

The world's upcoming largest economy insisting to do transactions with the world's largest oil exporter in Yuan is nothing to laugh at. The succesful trades done in Yuan and Euros will eventually pull in more non-aligned nations...if China puts its focus on it, it could eventually become a viable alternative for international trade. As mentioned earlier the weaponization of the dollar has raised a lot of eyebrows around the world and they want options in case they fall out of favor with US foreign policy.

How about those oil stocks today. Hopefully it continues for a while

I’m happy. Today wiped away losses from beginning of the year. Not a fan of rising oil prices but being invested in oil takes the bite out of that -FANG pun intended

Good luck everyone.

You say this like no other country has “raised their eyebrows” to what China, Russia, Middle East has done and is doing lately and in past decades.

I said simply said how it “could” play out. It would “probably” be a joke and bad joke down the road for those joining in on it.

And yes we use dollars to influence other countries. Has it been perfect? No no no. But look at the last 50 years with world extreme poverty, disease, starvation being significantly down. “Maybe” the dollars being spread around and based out of the US economy has “something” to do with the good? Like we see on here folks want a reset “their way” but only see greatness and don’t view downside when they paint the picture of what things wools be like. Folks will see greatness and no downside in China having more power as the decades go along.

Nothing we can do to stop Other countries from setting up their own world currency and that part I wasn’t joking about. All we can do is say “you want our currency with our strings attached or their currency with their strings”. Take your pick.

Folks don’t love energy, but it’s needed. Ice is a wild man we know but he brought up energy even back in 2020.

I have recommend keeping a portion of your portfolio in energy and riding things out. I am not at Iceman level levels but more Kool Bluejay type levels from what I get when they talk energy. Expect major chop though. Most play dividends all the way. Just pick a number and run with it .

Simply put - we have added many dollars and other countries have added much more currency over past decades and significantly more the last 15ish years. Technically the price of oil, natural gas, metals, steel, commodities etc “should” be higher based on the amount of money added and the money which is coming in will probably just continue. Yah think it will keep coming? I also expect inflation will be elevated over 2% also from here on out and that increases the base case for sectors above. So I expect these sectors to do well over the next 10 years. Real Estate I like also. Reits are oversold. March was a gift to add.

I wish you well.

Seasonally speaking oil should bubble up a bit here.

Production cut is pre-emptive was a big surprise, obviously there is worry of the coming global recession. Could see oil in the 90's going going into May.

Hope they gassed up those strategic reserves a bit 2-3 weeks ago! LOL

I was a little frustrated how the thread went sideways with all the reset talk, market back to 2008 levels and how greddy and corrupt the world is, so I took a break. Emotions, feelings, following narratives and how “we want” the world to be cloud what the world really is and if we make emotional decisions are those really the best? Emotional decisions based on money - investing can be really tough. Hard to keep the emotions away but keep them in check is best.

But that is what I love about the stock market. You get your answer in real time how things work and how folks feel about what you like or don’t and we see what happens when things go too high or get too low. It’s really cool! Ever notice how folks say “the market is wrong, rigged, fake, etc” a lot of they are wrong? Maybe it’s not and they are just……wrong, but next month they could be right…..or really really wrong.

Anyway from above I did add REITS HIW HPP CUZ DEI 1% each in my portfolio about 2 weeks ago when they were thrown out in the trash based on a 2009 banking trouble and not 2023 type banking trouble. I added to safer SPG also. The book value alone of their portfolios was really cheap. I know the risks. Need to have vision that sunbelt regeion will do well the next 10 years. I am bullish on the economy and real estate also. Like I said we keep adding money in and if inflation remains elevated partially due to that money coming into the economy real assets are likely to rise up.

We will see.

I doubt anyone here would have bought them. I wouldn’t recommend to many. But if I am right……….

And I am done. But we can all have our own opinions. Have a good week.

Pretty simple here. US didn't buy to fill up the SPR like they said they would when it dropped into the $60's. Not a drop of Oil.

OPEC+ said, "ok, we will cut production in response". "Just business", as oil expert and famed Energy trader Mark Fisher just stated.

"Who is going to build a new refinery when the government is trying to put you out of business"?

"Buy when Energy at $65 and sell at $85"

Same thing is coming for Nat Gas over next 2 years at these levels. Mark Newton from a technical standpoint, "nat gas is bottoming". I like LNG as one way to play it. And EQT. Seasonal cycles.

I feel this. I do a lot of camping and road trip driving in the Summer so it will hit me in the pocketbook, but on the flipside, I have a bunch of oil stocks that will help me in the pocketbook.

It's been headed this way for a while, and no one here gives a shit. We're more worried about what we call each other and silencing dissenting opinion.

It will get ugly. The US has been on a downward spiral since the 90s.

agree, we have trouble even getting along and respecting each other in a pinball forum

Bunch of Negative Nellies on this thread think the country and the economy is going to Hell because they just found out about drag queens.

Rupaul's show is in its 15th season boys - started in 2009 - the same year as the longest bull market in history. Coincidence? Nope. Drag popularity is highly correlated with good portfolio returns.

Opinions, Opinions, opinions.
I don't care about yours, you don't care about mine.
Can we just keep them to ourselves?

Gold baby gold! Up to $2025/oz

gold.gif

Sold my gold at $1600-something to buy another house 6 months ago. I really didn't want to sell the gold, but we had a family need.

Ha ha ha ha! I watched the first couple seasons of Drag Race, it was great. I had no idea it was still on.

That is when I was buying more....

You can definitely trade in and out a bit but I would stay long some dividend paying oil. Seasonally strong period coming in too.

Gold is always a trade. If you remember that you can make money.

To trade gold - it is much easier with paper - holding physical factors in the huge premiums they charge these days...

Anyone have the stomach to buy 3M(MMM) ? Just made my watchlist. Share price hit another low. I'm aware of all the lawsuits. How much or is all the pending lawsuits priced in here? Is dividend safe?

Wall Street Journal Op Ed - 4/4/23

An Oil Price Warning for Democrats:

Oil prices surged 6.3% on Monday, to close to $85 a barrel on the global market, after a group of Saudi-led producers said they’ll reduce production by a million barrels a day starting in May. That’s another fist bump to the stomach from President Biden’s admirers in Riyadh, and it’s a warning to Democrats in the U.S. of how vulnerable they are to oil producers abroad.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia already cut oil production by two million barrels a day in October. Monday’s additional reduction took markets by surprise, as the price surge suggests. If it continues, it will complicate decisions by the Federal Reserve and other central bankers trying to get inflation under control.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-saudi-producers-opec-russia-biden-99af6177?mod=opinion_trending_now_opn_pos3

Don't try and catch a falling knife. The worst thing you can do.

100% - ETFs!

You do realize that trying to keep oil prices/gas prices(in tow) down is a conflict of interest for a country who's economy depends on making money on oil. I always had a feeling our objective as a country was to rely on everyone elses oil as much as possible so we are the last ones holding and basically control the world(long game). Regardless of reasons, it's not in the oil companies best interests to keep production high, so even if it isn't someone elses fault, they will cut production anyway eventually. But of course, you keep on that trail of blame and ignoring 'business as usual'.

The other side of that is if you never stop trying to rely on oil, you aren't ever going to get away from oil. If you constantly fight progress, then you are left with what you are left with. Most of the time the act of moving forward costs more money than it makes. And if your mindset is you are more concerned about profits than moving forward and getting off the teet, why complain about oil supply/prices?

Oil companies will always manipulate the supply to raise prices and profits as long as we are dependent on their oil, they've been doing this for decades. The op ed from the Wall Street Journal is a bit silly and over the top.

You didn't even read it did you?

Because that is what drives the world and will for many, many years. You can hide your head in the sand and pontificate on gaining the moral high ground for "energy independence" while your enemies are nodding and smiling in agreement to your face, and going behind your back and planning to slit your economic throat.

Look at those maps a few posts ago and let that sink in.

Are you referring to OPEC or oil companies in general? Also, who told you that?

Simply not true. Oil companies are price takers, they do not determine the world oil price. No oil company has the power to "manipulate" supply enough to change oil prices.

For this reason - Higher prices do in fact incentivize oil companies to increase production.

Sadly the pro-environmentalist western governments around the world including the US are discouraging oil explorations and development and that absolutely does increase reliance on OPEC nations. The idea that we need to go green is fine but believing we don't need more oil is pure ignorance and we will all pay more because of that.

Where does all the Cobalt come from for the batteries for our cars? Who owns all of those mines? How do we generate enough power to support green infrastructure? We need oil for energy, plastics, medical devices, etc. We'll need oil forever.

Ditto the above explanation from Kool. What you said is Simply wrong. Furthermore, the focus is now on “return of capital” to shareholders while the war on fossil fuels is being waged. Wisely so.

This silly “war” is despite all logic, reality and common sense.

Plain ignorance

No point in arguing against what some people don’t understand as reality. Never will.

I feel like people who think the oil companies have no power to manipulate oil prices, but believe some of the other crazy things they believe to be a little questionable. However, I admit I'm no expert on oil and will digress that my take on oil production specifically may be misguided and directed more towards gas prices than oil.

Yeah, I know what you are saying, it wasn't really the point I was making though. We've been hearing the 'oil's almost gone' for decades. We also (as part of this discussion) at the whims of other countries and what they decide to do. There's plenty of incentive to find other means...however, people flock to the 'easy' money. While there may be lots of 'bad' ideas out there, there's still a lot of dependence on oil because it's the easy old money. Do you really think multibillionaire companies are going to try to find a cheap/free renewable solution? While I know they put lots of money into R&D, I highly doubt they'd move forward with solutions that they cannot control and profit from. And no, I'm not saying companies like Tesla are any different in that manner. I don't believe there will be any solution presented by any current company until the oil is gone....which of course, we have no idea when that will actually be, so until then, it's constant FUD and will only get worse until it actually happens. Hoping we're all dead by then.

We have decades of oil supply and new discoveries. The Guyana fund is massive. XON, HES etc

Look at the EIA for some objective facts regarding the demand for ALL forms of energy over the next several decades.

That’s why they broke out in laughter when Biden said in the state of the union “we will need fossil fuels for at least the next 10 years” and energy companies should be spending to drill and explore because of that

The growing worlds economy depends on it, including developing nations.

The only way Oil companies “control pricing” is by not producing with their FCF. It’s going to pay down debt and shareholder return.

Refineries take years and years of planning and cost outlay. Just like new pipelines. We have a serious structural problem on the horizon as a result of underinvestment over the past decade and exacerbated by this administration’s stance against fossil fuels.

It’s just business. And they have gotten more disciplined and much smarter.

It took a consortium of OPEC+ to cause a spike in prices recently.

And they did it in part because the US failed to buy to refill the SPR from them like we said we would when it hit the mid $60’s. Article is spot on

As for “alternative energy sources”. It’s the Exxon, Chevrons of the world that are spending and developing those technologies.

BP just cut back on their “green energy” spending because of the lack of profitability.

And it takes government subsidies to help in most cases.

With what Russia is doing, Europe has gotten religion on nuclear, coal, nat gas and other forms of energy. Being dependent on Russia in the name of an all in “green energy” approach was not a good strategy

If you want to educate yourself oil prices.com is a good resource amongst many others

I feel like people who think the oil companies have no power to manipulate oil prices, but believe some of the other crazy things they believe to be a little questionable.

What examples do have of oil companies manipulating oil price and what are these “other crazy things” these same people believe?

There is no war on fossil fuels, that's just a political opinion.