(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#18651 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

When did this thread turn into a dick measuring contest?

Just having fun Bill. It helps sharpen the focus and accountability, which there is none. Playing a little ping pong. Ha

My first post in this thread was over 6 yrs ago. Mostly informative, educational and sometimes collaborative. And sometimes, well it’s Pinside.

People come and go all the time.

This guy sees upside coming for HAL based on the below BUT he thinks could see better entry point in 1st half. So if trading it, might want to wait a quarter or two? Or buy more on dips.

3722AF82-0E20-47FD-A3ED-776780E884E9 (resized).png3722AF82-0E20-47FD-A3ED-776780E884E9 (resized).png840253D5-FE93-4D27-95D9-BEE783A78845 (resized).png840253D5-FE93-4D27-95D9-BEE783A78845 (resized).png9E5A5D32-BD75-4839-B06E-70388BA0412C (resized).png9E5A5D32-BD75-4839-B06E-70388BA0412C (resized).pngD212556A-35CD-4A56-8CD6-42B7D9CDC370 (resized).pngD212556A-35CD-4A56-8CD6-42B7D9CDC370 (resized).png

-1
#18652 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

When did this thread turn into a dick measuring contest?

And why wasn't I invited?

#18653 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

When did this thread turn into a dick measuring contest?

About 2 years ago

#18654 1 year ago

I for one enjoy the banter and pushbacks

There is no single ideal approach and I like hearing the different approaches and strategies with the specific horses to ride and why

I’m here to learn from others experience so just my opinion… please keep the dialogue going

#18655 1 year ago

This really should be more of a Reddit type trading thread anyhow I think.

The long term fundamentals. Not a whole lot to talk about over and over again if you are a long term investor. This time next year? The tailwinds are favorable.

Most people have a hard time thinking past tomorrow or next week.

Recency bias is a real thing. That’s also why people can’t ever win consistently gambling on the sports, the ultimate “daily” trade

The back and forth dick measuring contest? Watch the Halftime report every day with the Judge, Weiss, Josh, Farmer Jim, Joey T, Link etc. Lol

#18656 1 year ago

Agree on both points. I enjoy reading the banter and different perspectives.

Definitely agree on the Reddit style for this cuz yeah not much chatter about longs otherwise lol.

#18657 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

This really should be more of a Reddit type trading thread anyhow I think…Lol

I’m shorting YOLO and long HODL!

#18658 1 year ago

Can’t post write up because it’s behind a paywall but every heavy hitter is all about the future of AI and mentioning every chance they can in their commentary and conference calls. Along with “efficiency”.

AMD, UBER, ABNB and Booking also mentioned to benefit.

68DAF038-1F7D-4CCE-AA28-C01BA934D4DC (resized).png68DAF038-1F7D-4CCE-AA28-C01BA934D4DC (resized).png

#18659 1 year ago

Good article on ChatGBT in NY Times yesterday (or maybe earlier in the week).

#18660 1 year ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Good article on ChatGBT in NY Times yesterday (or maybe earlier in the week).

I think Google is sweating the popularity and is releasing its own version and challenge to search. MSFT rallied back primarily because of this despite slowing cloud spend across the industry.

It’s pretty damn cool.

Hard to bet against any of the giants!

#18661 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

I think Google is sweating the popularity and is releasing its own version and challenge to search. MSFT rallied back primarily because of this despite slowing cloud spend across the industry.
It’s pretty damn cool.
Hard to bet against any of the giants!

I’ve heard people say that AI will be the source of the next gold rush style, explosive market boom. I can’t wrap my head around it yet, but I hope it’s true. Rising tide, etc.

#18662 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Can’t post write up because it’s behind a paywall but every heavy hitter is all about the future of AI and mentioning every chance they can in their commentary and conference calls. Along with “efficiency”.
AMD, UBER, ABNB and Booking also mentioned to benefit.
[quoted image]

I've been on this (AI) and cybersecurity trail since 2020. Problem is all the companies around it dove a crap ton and even now are considered overbought. At this time, they just are not that profitable.

The amount of people using AI (like ChatGPT) to build market bots is overwhelming to the point that eventually I think the bots themselves are going to drive the market up as everyone will be using basically the same algorthyms.

I'm not a programmer, but I can interpret and modify some. I built a script for work using ChatGPT in a few hours (with tweaking) and it was very good at teaching and modifying on the spot. Then you can take the entire finished code and have it instantly convert it to any other language. There's a lot of potential in this area, but it's going to have some turbulence because of displacement as well (granted this is just one use case).

I am currently using it to try to make me understand options better.

It's hobbled at the moment for what it can and can't do, but in 5 years...I think these things are going to be crazy.

The question is how are they going to make money? Even ChatGPT they weren't really clear on how to monetize it. They are headed that direction with a paid version though.

#18663 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I've been on this (AI) and cybersecurity trail since 2020. Problem is all the companies around it dove a crap ton and even now are considered overbought. At this time, they just are not that profitable.
The amount of people using AI (like ChatGPT) to build market bots is overwhelming to the point that eventually I think the bots themselves are going to drive the market up as everyone will be using basically the same algorthyms.
I'm not a programmer, but I can interpret and modify some. I built a script for work using ChatGPT in a few hours (with tweaking) and it was very good at teaching and modifying on the spot. Then you can take the entire finished code and have it instantly convert it to any other language. There's a lot of potential in this area, but it's going to have some turbulence because of displacement as well (granted this is just one use case).
I am currently using it to try to make me understand options better.
It's hobbled at the moment for what it can and can't do, but in 5 years...I think these things are going to be crazy.
The question is how are they going to make money? Even ChatGPT they weren't really clear on how to monetize it. They are headed that direction with a paid version though.

Interesting. I would pay for a more developed ChatGPT down the road. Might have to, to compete. So many ways I could use it from legal docs, taxes etc

#18664 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Interesting. I would pay for a more developed ChatGPT down the road. Might have to, to compete. So many ways I could use it from legal docs, taxes etc

Version 4 comes out this year. 3.5 was to get a foothold, but it was rushed. 4 is what they’ve been focused on.

#18665 1 year ago
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#18666 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

When did this thread turn into a dick measuring contest?

The focus of investing should never be big instant returns, bottom hunting, trading in and out, concentrated tech portfolios or growth-growth-growth. If it is then good luck.

Quoted from DropGems:

Yea we’re def range bound. Lot of mixed signals. Obviously last month was a great buying opportunity in hindsight. Fed presser also was somewhat of a macro game changer for sure. Then NFP come out and make it all that much more confusing. Crazy.

It's very difficult to see where we are going right now I agree. I do think the worst is behind us though. My gut also tells me a bit more sideways for the next few months but thats OK. That's when dividends and income shine.

#18667 1 year ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

When did this thread turn into a dick measuring contest?

It was a good move if it was your only Tesla trade or if you held earlier and sold it all above $200 and then bought around $110. Which few, if any Musketeers did.

#18668 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Interesting. I would pay for a more developed ChatGPT down the road. Might have to, to compete. So many ways I could use it from legal docs, taxes etc

Read today about TTE and SHEL being undervalued based on price. Haven’t seen you mention these and wondering your opinion?

#18669 1 year ago

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/and-now-food-deflation-us-food-giant-tyson-tumbles-falling-beef-chicken-prices-sliding

Tyson missed earnings.

A lot of interest rate and inflation talk here and on the news. If we could take all of this and go back in a time machine to the start of 2022 we would be golden. Where was all the talk then?

“At this point” the constant focus and the worry that goes along with the interest rate watch could be a trap.

You can hedge during a monetary pivot change yes, but major part been done. Perhaps now pivot again and Focus on what has earned everyone money over the last 40 years - the money supply increase. The printing presses paused in 2022, but are are starting back up. Thanks to monetary policy of higher rates the Govt paid out $250 B “more” last Fiscal quarter ending 10-01-22 due to higher interest payments. That’s one quarter. How much will be added with even higher rates this year? Fiscal policy will add 8.7% to SS cola this year which is almost $200 more per month average for 66 million people. Fiscal will add what $300 B with additional govt spending.

Higher rates and Inflation hurt an economy and are a headwind for a period but look after. Cola, interest payments will add more money in. And yes don’t worry the govt will keep spending and more then last year. All tailwinds. As inflation slows the train will leave the station. It already is rolling now.

Looking grind a little higher over next few months, pause and lean downward for summer doldrums and debt ceiling and get ready for Fall when we start to launch. Those who are all in really don’t have much to do if you don’t want to. IMO.

We will see.

#18670 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/and-now-food-deflation-us-food-giant-tyson-tumbles-falling-beef-chicken-prices-sliding
Tyson missed earnings.
A lot of interest rate and inflation talk here and on the news. If we could take all of this and go back in a time machine to the start of 2022 we would be golden. Where was all the talk then?
“At this point” the constant focus and the worry that goes along with the interest rate watch could be a trap.
You can hedge during a monetary pivot change yes, but it’s been done. Perhaps now pivot again and Focus on what has earned everyone money over the last 40 years - the money supply increase. The printing presses paused in 2022, but are are starting back up. Thanks to monetary policy of higher rates the Govt paid out $250 B “more” last Fiscal quarter ending 10-01-22 due to higher interest payments. That’s one quarter. How much will be added with even higher rates,this year? Fiscal policy will add 8.7% to SS cola this year which is almost $200 more per month average for 66 million people. Fiscal will add what $300 B with additional govt spending.
Higher rates and Inflation hurt an economy and are a headwind for a period but look after. Cola, interest payments will add more money in. And yes don’t worry the govt will keep spending and more then last year. All tailwinds. As inflation slows the train will leave the station. It already is rolling now.
Looking grind a little higher over next few months, pause and lean downward for summer doldrums and debt ceiling and get ready for Fall when we start to launch. Those who are all in really don’t have much to do if you don’t want to. IMO.
We will see.

COLA also rolls out at the same rate to retired military - my bump was $588/month after taxes.

#18671 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

COLA also rolls out at the same rate to retired military - my bump was $588/month after taxes.

Well thanks for serving!

Now here is a question. Are you taking the increase and loading up the cart on Amazon, ETSY, EBAY or going to Target , Walmart, Home Depot and loading up the real cart? Headed to grocery store to load up on food for your freezer? Kitchen redo? Patio furniture?

Or are you kind of chilling on spending now?

You don’t have to answer but my point is that it’s leaning more likely folks won’t or won’t have to run out and spend any increases of income they get now or in the near future which can cause Inflation. Spending more a little later on though more likely.

And that cola increase is baked in forever and can only get added to. Compounding without any negative years factored in. Not too shabby.

#18672 1 year ago

Yep..step into my parlor the spider said to the fly.

Screenshot_20230206_143015_Twitter (resized).jpgScreenshot_20230206_143015_Twitter (resized).jpg

#18673 1 year ago
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:

Read today about TTE and SHEL being undervalued based on price. Haven’t seen you mention these and wondering your opinion?

Yeah I thinks it’s all relative in an entire industry that is “undervalued”.

Tom Lee and FS Insight added OXY, MRO, VLO to their main model on quarterly rebalance.

#18674 1 year ago

Yep, MEME stocks are getting a ton of money dumped into them again the past few weeks. BBBY, a company that is closing hundreds of stores and is facing both bankruptcy and being delisted, is one of their targets because of so many people shorting it. It's jumped over 50% today and I don't think it's a full squeeze yet, I think it's just retail demand to be in on it. Crazy times.

#18675 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Yep, MEME stocks are getting a ton of money dumped into them again the past few weeks. BBBY, a company that is closing hundreds of stores and is facing both bankruptcy and being delisted, is one of their targets because of so many people shorting it. It's jumped over 50% today and I don't think it's a full squeeze yet, I think it's just retail demand to be in on it. Crazy times.

It's now jumped 115%.

#18676 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

It's now jumped 115%.

Vegas baby - the new way to invest - put all your money in, watch it go up, and cash out when it crashes.

#18677 1 year ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Vegas baby - the new way to invest - put all your money in, watch it go up, and cash out when it crashes.

I had a pretty good (around 80%) run when I was day trading. The issue is it just takes your full attention for too long, and I wasn't willing to bet the farm on any trades (all smaller). I was much less busy when I was doing that. Certainly better luck at that than picking long term stocks...that's for sure.

#18678 1 year ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I had a pretty good (around 80%) run when I was day trading. The issue is it just takes your full attention for too long, and I wasn't willing to bet the farm on any trades (all smaller). I was much less busy when I was doing that. Certainly better luck at that than picking long term stocks...that's for sure.

There are dozens of stocks that have 20 or 30 year charts that start on the bottom left and finish at the top right. This is the way.

#18679 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

There are dozens of stocks that have 20 or 30 year charts that start on the bottom right and finish at the top left. This is the way.

I'm thinking you mean start at bottom left and finish top right.

#18680 1 year ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

It's now jumped 115%.

I like to zoom out and look at the signs, not saying it always works but history often repeats. There are almost no fundamentals for the bull case. Inflation is still persisting, job market is still strong which again feeds inflation. The Fed is not accommodating any more which was a primary bull market driver in the past decade or so. All of these metrics point to higher and longer tightening policy...which without fail will drive markets lower. Soft landing, hard landing, no matter the Fed's got a fight on its hands, and they always win.

#18681 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I'm thinking you mean start at bottom left and finish top right.

Yes - half asleep obviously

#18682 1 year ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Had this conversation yesterday. Probably take years now to grow into the valuation after this run?
I’m looking at a rebound on RCL and Norwegian.
Just got off Wonder of the Seas. They have also come back but all I see is pent up demand and people booking “next cruises” while on board. Long line entire trip
Doesn’t fit my profile of stocks but those two serve older profile/retirees versus carnival
Biggest Black Friday bookings in 53 years.
No Covid BS restrictions anymore!!! Fantastic

RCL cruising

#18683 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

I like to zoom out and look at the signs, not saying it always works but history often repeats. There are almost no fundamentals for the bull case. Inflation is still persisting, job market is still strong which again feeds inflation. The Fed is not accommodating any more which was a primary bull market driver in the past decade or so. All of these metrics point to higher and longer tightening policy...which without fail will drive markets lower. Soft landing, hard landing, no matter the Fed's got a fight on its hands, and they always win.

Hey Kvan it’s possible the Fed controls the market and economies but I think it’s way much more than that

IMO the Fed “is never” the primary driver. The main driver(s) for the economy the last 15ish years were

1. massive amounts of deficit spending adding to the money supply to save the economy and build up bank reserves from the financial crisis along with social spending and overall higher govt spending across the board.

2. A massive amount of innovation that started with the the IPhone when it came out in 2007 and tech blossomed with a boatload of amazing apps AI streaming of music and television fiber 5G EV vehicles next day delivery social media online sales etc… and the lower costs and higher efficiency these innovations brought in to keep prices down.

3. The major recovery of Real Estate from depressed pricing levels along with recovery for the historic lows of housing starts due to financial crisis. The tech workers along with everyone else needed homes.

4. Now the Fed controlled lower interest rates during this time so that was the Fed’s part yes. But it’s “ok” to keep rates lower to get the housing market back in line (banks took their time to do housing loans in the years after the financial crisis though especially new builds so the delay didn’t help and raised prices higher of already constructed and new builds). And it’s ok to keep low rates if money is bowered to do business ventures that created the innovation above. You can also ok on the Fiscal side to add to “the money supply” for innovation and helping the “needed” housing supply and tech innovation

Perfect storm 1,2,3,4 for a fantastic bull run.

So last 10 years or so was ok on lower rates but IMO the Fed was nearsighted with putting rates lower during the pandemic because massive amounts of fiscal money was sent out by Congress on up, along with loan forbearance and other additions also during that time. Like it would been nice to say “the lower rates helped those with credit cards student loans home loans etc ” then but there was a lot of forbearance programs going around already. Folks instead bought already built lake homes with 2.5% 30 year fixed rates. Low rates let folks borrow money cheap who didn’t really need it. Shrug.

Lower rates didn’t “save us” in 2020 which the Fed gets credit for and were not as necessary with the fiscal policy trillions that were sent out with low/no strings attached. So then in 2021 with many signs pointing to higher inflation the Fed refused to raise the rates. Then they come in too late last year to make up for their mistakes and will get credit for “helping” fix it. But then again with the signs in place it’s not all the Feds fault, I knew the 2021 victory lap deficit spending blowout was not wise either. Just IMO. But looking at 2021 end to now I am not wrong.

Now the innovation is still coming, we are still way behind on housing builds, jobs are good - why would they not be?, the money supply is still high from the last 15 years and 2020/21 “blow out”, govt spending is coming back, banks are a lot more stable with reserves than in 2008 and we are flipping - current “higher rates” provided by the Fed raise cost to borrow but could add a Trillion plus dollars to the money supply this year on interest payments and govt is still spending more than 2022 BION?! The added money to the money supply will “outrun” the higher Inflation that we have not had in a while but inflation is coming down anyway and rates next. Then what will happen??

Economies have worked fine in the past without 1% rates and 2% inflation. Things will be alright. We just have to adjust. Not 2010-2020ish, that was a twice in a lifetime moment, but alright which will shock folks who disagree.

“To me” saying “the Fed controls things” is always the easy answer and is zooming in not out. Many other parts. The Fed did not create the IPhone.

Like I have mentioned we run a little higher until mid month which we are getting close to, then pull some cash if you want. I don’t think we will get a “huge” pullbacks this year though and looking to the Fall to get ready to launch. If we cap the debt ceiling that’s a whole new ballgame.

Good luck.

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#18684 1 year ago

What a day. VIX back down to 18.50. Markets closing on highs basically.

"Disinflation". 2/14 CPI number

"AI". MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL

#18685 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

Hey Kvan it’s possible the Fed controls the market and economies but I think it’s way much more than that
IMO the Fed “is never” the primary driver. The main driver(s) for the economy the last 15ish years were
1. massive amounts of deficit spending adding to the money supply to save the economy and build up bank reserves from the financial crisis along with social spending and overall higher govt spending across the board.
2. A massive amount of innovation that started with the the IPhone when it came out in 2007 and tech blossomed with a boatload of amazing apps AI streaming of music and television fiber 5G EV vehicles next day delivery social media online sales etc… and the lower costs and higher efficiency these innovations brought in to keep prices down.
3. The major recovery of Real Estate from depressed pricing levels along with recovery for the historic lows of housing starts due to financial crisis. The tech workers along with everyone else needed homes.
4. Now the Fed controlled lower interest rates during this time so that was the Fed’s part yes. But it’s “ok” to keep rates lower to get the housing market back in line (banks took their time to do housing loans in the years after the financial crisis though especially new builds so the delay didn’t help and raised prices higher of already constructed and new builds). And it’s ok to keep low rates if money is bowered to do business ventures that created the innovation above. You can also ok on the Fiscal side to add to “the money supply” for innovation and helping the “needed” housing supply and tech innovation
Perfect storm 1,2,3,4 for a fantastic bull run.
So last 10 years or so was ok on lower rates but IMO the Fed was nearsighted with putting rates lower during the pandemic because massive amounts of fiscal money was sent out by Congress on up, along with loan forbearance and other additions also during that time. Like it would been nice to say “the lower rates helped those with credit cards student loans home loans etc ” then but there was a lot of forbearance programs going around already. Folks instead bought already built lake homes with 2.5% 30 year fixed rates. Low rates let folks borrow money cheap who didn’t really need it. Shrug.
Lower rates didn’t “save us” in 2020 which the Fed gets credit for and were not as necessary with the fiscal policy trillions that were sent out with low/no strings attached. So then in 2021 with many signs pointing to higher inflation the Fed refused to raise the rates. Then they come in too late last year to make up for their mistakes and will get credit for “helping” fix it. But then again with the signs in place it’s not all the Feds fault, I knew the 2021 victory lap deficit spending blowout was not wise either. Just IMO. But looking at 2021 end to now I am not wrong.
Now the innovation is still coming, we are still way behind on housing builds, jobs are good - why would they not be?, the money supply is still high from the last 15 years and 2020/21 “blow out”, govt spending is coming back, banks are a lot more stable with reserves than in 2008 and we are flipping - current “higher rates” provided by the Fed raise cost to borrow but could add a Trillion plus dollars to the money supply this year on interest payments and govt is still spending more than 2022 BION?! The added money to the money supply will “outrun” the higher Inflation that we have not had in a while but inflation is coming down anyway and rates next. Then what will happen??
Economies have worked fine in the past without 1% rates and 2% inflation. Things will be alright. We just have to adjust. Not 2010-2020ish, that was a twice in a lifetime moment, but alright which will shock folks who disagree.
“To me” saying “the Fed controls things” is always the easy answer and is zooming in not out. Many other parts. The Fed did not create the IPhone.
Like I have mentioned we run a little higher until mid month which we are getting close to, then pull some cash if you want. I don’t think we will get a “huge” pullbacks this year though and looking to the Fall to get ready to launch. If we cap the debt ceiling that’s a whole new ballgame.
Good luck.
[quoted image][quoted image][quoted image]

Yeah, sure. Deficit spending and loose monetary policy go hand in hand. But what I wrote is not just my opinion, there is a correlation between the Fed's policy and stock market behavior. The record bond buying and expansion of the money supply are powerful economic drivers. Yes, of course innovation and productivity increases due to technology had a lot to do with the growth too.

#18686 1 year ago

Damn and she's easy on the eyes too

https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1622721726374203392?t=Q887P_XQlWWHzX0VhuoChA&s=19

PS: Uber earnings on deck
Adding some more premarket today before earnings announcement

#18687 1 year ago

Weekly momentum continues to build to the upside but the S&P would only need to decline by -3% to turn negative, it's tight.

4120 is resistance, I'm still not seeing what pushes us over 4120 yet. Support is between 4000- 4120, followed 3900-3940 followed by 3800-3700.

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#18688 1 year ago

Problem is the Fed always lags the market. Like last drop of 2021/2, Daq lost 42% of its total drop before the Fed made their first rate hike move March 17. The rate hike was small 25 BPS. The DAQ rallied 5% after?! After DAQ bottomed later in the year but this quick move up is now only 12% away higher to get to where DAQ was on March 17 when they made the first move. Investors missed the bottom and top by a lot following the Fed “the lag”. Now the Fed continues to raise rates and folks are waiting for the “all clear” signal from the Fed while sitting in their 4%ish whatever annual yields calling the market names. I don’t know how one could have hedged or gone long with all this if you followed the Fed moves?? If so share the methods.

I am not trying to argue with anyone. The “Fed guides the market” is one thing we hear all the time, but I can’t come up with times where one can really benefit from there moves. It’s alot of lag.

About the Fed though, Here is a big question - remember last year when we had inflation already going and rate hikes started folks constantly mentioned “Volcker”!! and how horrible he was because of what he has to do? Now he never gets mentioned. Why?? Pounding the table on this - look what happened after! It will give better answers on what the Feds actions now can do for the economy in the future.

The most important thing the Fed can guide folks with right now is looking at Fed in the 1980’s when we had inflation. See what happened “after” Volcker “killed the economy” with “higher rates”. He did sure. But for how long? He later provided us with higher govt Interest payouts and let’s add how monetary helped us with cola’s from inflation added fuel the money supply along with higher Govt spending while taxes were lowered.

Let’s look at today - We already now have 1. Higher govt spending (much) 2. Low taxes are covered 3. Now we have higher interest rate payouts and cola ‘s (just starting) which I said were coming. We haven’t had any in years so this is semi new. And now 4. much higher debt and money supply than the 80’s which will get way more Interest payouts into the economy.

The yields now are less then the 80’s yes, but the amount of debt and money supply collecting interest are waaaaaaaaaaaaaay higher then the 1980’s. Also add today govt spending has been on full throttle last 15 years and in the 80’s it was just starting. The companies today keep making great, innovative products and in the 80’s just starting.

Let’s throw in 2000 for fun. What the difference between todays tech companies and say 2000’s? Hmmmmm. Think about it. This was a tech wreck but todays companies actually have useful products compared to 2000. Both times 2000, 2021 they were overvalued and deserved to be sold off. Difference is 2021 companies are better set up to recover.

We got/getting the Fed “lag” right now. Higher rates from here on out don’t work anymore and just add to the money supply with higher interest payments. Maybe they know this and won’t tell you? I am reading between the lines.

But flip side - Maybe this won’t be the 1980’s bull and we will fall flat and fail? My vote is no. But if we do fail at least plenty of money will be sloshing around while the unemployment is low, RE market is still alright, inflation steadily dropping, world reopens, no one cares about Covid anymore and we have a bunch of cool innovative products to use while we wait for things to turn. This is what folks are saying right now - hmmm it doesn’t feel like a recession is coming??? Yet they are bearish with the markets.

It’s not a matter of “if” it’s “when” we roll. I think the train has left the station already, but don’t worry it didn’t run away too far.

Hope this made folks think.

Switching topics “let’s look at where we are now” fiscal money added from the Treasury to money supply is slowing down Feb 15ish after the $56B added in Jan and $82B so far in Feb “tailwinds”. That does not mean we drop immediately or it’s a big drop, but if we shallow drop it will be between Feb 15 - April 15. If we get a bigger dip it will be Summer, but we should be higher then anyway. Then in Fall we get ready to launch to ATH’s. This year will continue to shock. Folks forgot how to be positive, but when they finally remember…..

AAII survey has been bearish 63 weeks in a row. What if this flips to 63 weeks the other way?

https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

If we cap or hold back debt ceiling all the above is game over. More on that later and when we will have to look at it again when we get pounded on the topic by the Media coming up. I just recommend “you will have to remove your deeply entrenched views and biases about national debt, govt spending, who gets the money, taxes, who decides where it goes etc” to get a more clear view on how money works. That’s hard to do.

I think the experts will keep being wrong. Things are lining up for the economy to really roll in the years ahead. Folks just can’t wrap their heads around it. But they don’t look at what happened “after” Volcker killed the economy.

Hang in there folks.

#18689 1 year ago

I am not sure but kind of getting the vibe that a lot of folks here are pretty much “all in”.

When the surprise upside comes that they don’t see coming folks say “yeah I was pretty much all in anyway so I did fine”.

But when the run looks like it will slow and end the same person turns and says “this market is way overbought and makes no sense” perhaps to get themselves mentally prepared for a drop, but don’t make any moves to hedge and just stay long??

Could be wrong.

Just an observation.

Many folks think housing needs to a correction. I just looked this up. Seems that household debt service payments are still at historicity low levels. Housing market has done well in the past with 5%’s 30 year fixed rates. The change of rates is hard. But then life goes on. We are still catching up on housing starts from the financial crisis gap also.

I have free time. Lol

99821370-91D8-4020-AA30-520378A0D559 (resized).jpeg99821370-91D8-4020-AA30-520378A0D559 (resized).jpeg
#18690 1 year ago
Quoted from pinnyheadhead:

I am not sure but kind of getting the vibe that a lot of folks here are pretty much “all in”.
When the surprise upside comes that they don’t see coming folks say “yeah I was pretty much all in anyway so I did fine”.
But when the run looks like it will slow and end the same person turns and says “this market is way overbought and makes no sense” perhaps to get themselves mentally prepared for a drop, but don’t make any moves to hedge and just stay long??
Could be wrong.
Just an observation.
Many folks think housing needs to a correction. I just looked this up. Seems that household debt service payments are still at historicity low levels. Housing market has done well in the past with 5%’s 30 year fixed rates. The change of rates is hard. But then life goes on. We are still catching up on housing starts from the financial crisis gap also.
I have free time. Lol
[quoted image]

Ahhhh, I love FRED and far too few people use it. Been saying it for a while, the small builders closing shop and the lack of starts during the financial crisis is going to keep inventory low for quite some time. Still trying to figure out when we get the liquidity back. Multifamily starts are up, and single family entry level homes aren’t coming back anytime soon. Pair that with the fact that a lot of people are “tied down” with their sub 3% mortgages, it hard to envision a world with the liquidity we saw in the 90’s. Keep going back and forth on if now is the time to exit my multi-fam properties

#18691 1 year ago
Quoted from OleSilverBalls:

Ahhhh, I love FRED and far too few people use it. Been saying it for a while, the small builders closing shop and the lack of starts during the financial crisis is going to keep inventory low for quite some time. Still trying to figure out when we get the liquidity back. Multifamily starts are up, and single family entry level homes aren’t coming back anytime soon. Pair that with the fact that a lot of people are “tied down” with their sub 3% mortgages, it hard to envision a world with the liquidity we saw in the 90’s. Keep going back and forth on if now is the time to exit my multi-fam properties

I'm locked in at 1.625%. Aint moving until this suckers paid off... then cash if that.

#18692 1 year ago
Quoted from OleSilverBalls:

Ahhhh, I love FRED and far too few people use it. Been saying it for a while, the small builders closing shop and the lack of starts during the financial crisis is going to keep inventory low for quite some time. Still trying to figure out when we get the liquidity back. Multifamily starts are up, and single family entry level homes aren’t coming back anytime soon. Pair that with the fact that a lot of people are “tied down” with their sub 3% mortgages, it hard to envision a world with the liquidity we saw in the 90’s. Keep going back and forth on if now is the time to exit my multi-fam properties

The new renter protections seems to make it look like it's going to really work against the small time rental owners.

#18693 1 year ago

Alphabet is on sale today after Bard (their AI product) made a very public incorrect answer. Tough crowd, lol.

#18694 1 year ago
Quoted from RTR:

Alphabet is on sale today after Bard (their AI product) made a very public incorrect answer. Tough crowd, lol.

I think their failure made my two smaller AI stocks both jump in an otherwise fairly red day.

#18695 1 year ago

Finally! I've held that crap for awhile....

#18696 1 year ago
Quoted from RTR:

Alphabet is on sale today after Bard (their AI product) made a very public incorrect answer. Tough crowd, lol.

Yep but all tech short term can be a bit volatile at times after the January bounce. There are no bargains left.

#18697 1 year ago
Quoted from RTR:

Alphabet is on sale today after Bard (their AI product) made a very public incorrect answer. Tough crowd, lol.

Big time. I have 40+ units and feel really good about the positive cash flow but everything feels like it’s working against us mom and pop owners. Already feel squeezed with property tax increases of 100%+ in some areas and the overall cost of maintenance increasing dramatically. Snow removal is up 70%+ post COVID.

Always have the thought in the back of my mind that it would be better to sell everything, eat the cap gains, and drop it in a bunch of the dividend aristocrats.

#18698 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

Yep but all tech short term can be a bit volatile at times after the January bounce. There are no bargains left.

INTC Google just took a bit of dive also. Google is a bit hard to read for the future because the ads are at maximum capacity. I don't think they can add more to YouTube without customers getting pissed. But they do have other things in the pipe. Intel will surely get the house in order by 2024. Also I would add my love and hate favorite stock to that list BA...Boeing is positioned to go higher but like always it's a jaggedly line.

#18699 1 year ago
Quoted from kvan99:

INTC Google just took a bit of dive also. Google is a bit hard to read for the future because the ads are at maximum capacity. I don't think they can add more to YouTube without customers getting pissed. But they do have other things in the pipe. Intel will surely get the house in order by 2024. Also I would add my love and hate favorite stock to that list BA...Boeing is positioned to go higher but like always it's a jaggedly line.

Intel is a show me story to say the least. They have fallen so far behind that I'm not sure they will ever catch up at this point. If you are going into semis buy one of the leaders with a strong mobile presence. INTC is cheap for a reason.

"Intel reported weaker Dec-Q results on continued weakness in its PC segment that
was compounded by continued inventory corrections and continued weak
datacenter/enterprise demand. The weakness is expected to further deteriorate/
broaden in its other end market segments for the Mar-Qtr (double-digit% Q/Q
decline across all end segments) combined with an accelerated pace of customer
inventory digestion (CCG, DCAI, and NEX). As a result, the Mar-Qtr guidance
was well-below consensus expectations. Given the macro volatility, the team has
refrained from providing full year 2023 guidance".

#18700 1 year ago
Quoted from kool1:

Intel is a show me story to say the least. They have fallen so far behind that I'm not sure they will ever catch up at this point. If you are going into semis buy one of the leaders with a strong mobile presence. INTC is cheap for a reason.
"Intel reported weaker Dec-Q results on continued weakness in its PC segment that
was compounded by continued inventory corrections and continued weak
datacenter/enterprise demand. The weakness is expected to further deteriorate/
broaden in its other end market segments for the Mar-Qtr (double-digit% Q/Q
decline across all end segments) combined with an accelerated pace of customer
inventory digestion (CCG, DCAI, and NEX). As a result, the Mar-Qtr guidance
was well-below consensus expectations. Given the macro volatility, the team has
refrained from providing full year 2023 guidance".

True..it's a 2024 story.

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