I saw this graph on Twitter and thought it was very appropriate to show how misaligned things are valuation wise compared to historical periods.

https://twitter.com/darioperkins/status/1587748755692032001?s=21

Only way to kill the inflation monster is the kill demand and tight labor market. Not an easy task to kill it once it's out of the bottle. The rise in markets in October did nothing but help the fed continue full steam ahead. Great thing is this is not a financial crisis so there are places to hide and there are stocks and companies doing very well.

For sure - oil is oil. All the stocks have done well.

Interesting.

Inflation really hasn't come down yet - early signs are there but I unfortunately the economy is still running pretty hot.

Cant suck the money back in that was put out there from the last 40 and especially last 12 and 3 years to stop inflation.

But “they” can destroy wealth. Which is what they are doing now. They are changing TINA of TIAA “is an alternative” to stocks and other investments.

Correct? Or no?

DVN having a nice bounce today

Energy has the "value", "dividend", some "growth" and clarity of earnings. There is no uncertainty based on the price of Oil & Gas on how they are performing in this environment. Structural worldwide issues and reckoning.

Take a look at what LNG just reported.

FANG
PXD
DVN
EOG
LNG
VLO
CVX
XOM

are my Energy stocks. FANG is far and away my personal biggest holding.

They are in the process of integrating their midstream company in Rattler.

Be cautious if trading, RSI levels are at 70 and above.

I like using a covered call strategy at these levels to collect the income along with the dividend and then sell puts when its down.

Based on what we are hearing i don't think we will see a 180 on Energy policy after the elections. Just the opposite.

6 month T-Bill pays over 4% right now. Some would say just go there and let the dust settle with everything going on.

I did pick up some FANG, DVN, and XLE the other day - still hoping Carvana tanks tonight...

Cramer takes it up the a$$

Next few months could be messy.

If you can get 4-5% and sleep at night for the next 6 months, may be gold for some people.

Otherwise pick away slowly if you have cash. I think markets will look much better next year this time.

Saw that. Hysterical. Lilly down big. Estée Lauder too. Why?

Contradicts himself daily. Valuations on EL and LLY sky high

And he trimmed Energy stocks in Sept

Agree with that. FED will be in cut mode again as inflation drops and the economy slips into a deeper recession.

Then again, they haven’t gotten anything right yet.

Apparently this was in the EPD pipelines earnings call.

4DD2FBC9-DCDF-43C6-9F50-9218F7C62FCF (resized).jpeg

It’s amazing in these times the best economic policy to fight inflation is to increase interest rates to reduce demand and increase unemployment (reduce demand further).

I also got into Twlo because Cramer talked about how undervalued it was around 100. Ugh.

Cramer is both an entertainer and analyst. He certainly has some good talking points from time to time, but frequently the entertainer side of him overwhelms the financial analyst side of him and you get his inconsistent gibberish and really bad advice.

Another payoff today

carvana (resized).jpg

There is no other way other than government fiscal restraint but that won't happen and it's very slow.

The Fed mistake was made long ago with too much easy money for too long. Now we all pay the price.

100%

The skill is being able to filter a mountain of data daily, weekly, monthly, and talking heads with 1,000 different positions and then formulate an opinion based on all of that.

That's why i love it Tiger! If i had to just do legal estate planning or taxes I'd be LONG GONE.

And a disasterous slew of fiscal policies.

ONE issue that affects most everything INFLATION oriented is the cost of ENERGY. The price of getting food to the table, goods delivered all over the world, services etc.

The employment number today was a GOOD sign. I'd rather have a strong economy with increased productivity and supply constraints easing to combat inflation versus a Fed that ends up destroying jobs and the economy.

Now that is exactly what is likely to happen in 2023 but it's certainly NOT optimal.

We know how to have both, a growing economy and low inflation.

There is only so much room for growth. The fed's hand was forced to prop up the economy for the last 7ish years. That growth and great economy was a hoax. Under the type of conditions you are stating needs to happen, the economy over that time wouldn't have been nearly as good. The force of perceived 'growth' is the number one killer of progress. Numbers are manipulated, change is looked at as bad. These people aren't where they are because of honesty. They are there because of making the numbers look good. The pandemic and subsequent actions just caused all of that propping to tumble.

As it stands right now, nothing is different now that 6 years ago. The sky is falling, but is it really? All money ends up in the same place eventually. Doesn't matter how much is printed.

Energy policy around the world is causing this and it's definitely a root cause of inflation. Oil goes into everything and it moves everything. The ideas that we can go "green" in short order is pure political fantasy. Unfortunately governments keep pushing "green solutions" rather than oil and pipeline development. Pure insanity.

Diesel is especially worrying in North America - very very short supply

China re-opening is going to tighten things even more. Oil screaming higher today just on a whiff of that possibility.

If you want growth which “benefits us all” and that not just your country but worldwide money added to the economy needs to go to the right “prosuctive” areas and Fed needs vision of what is going on and use rates need to help guide.

After 2008 financial/housing crisis money was blown out through polices along with stupid low interest rates 2009-2016 to save the economy along with new social programs added. Where did the money go? It “fortunately” went to developing smart phones, streaming, fiber Wi-Fi, 5G, AI, EV’s, social media and targeted advertising, free next day delivery for less than $10 a month etc..

Also keep in mind money always starts “here” but then typically is forwarded by businesses and individuals to another stop. Like 2020/21 stimulus - started to this family but where did the money end up??

Compared to 2009 on in 2020-2022 policy makers blew out spending and where did money go? Well “the next round of life changing innovation” u unfortunately never kicked in and instead we got spending on patio furniture, kitchen redos, pajamas, dog treat of the month clubs, gold, individuals hoarding items for resales and flipping and rampant off the charts crypto and stock speculation. Add in Fed rates back to 0% and folks buying homes and refinancing at 2.6% and loan payments halted and later forgiven that left even more money in the economy.

2008 and after or 2020 and after which time frame did the low rates and spending policy money blowout work better in? Where did the dollars end up?

Now this is a little off topic but in IMHO unfortunately in 2020-21 the best minds out there with “the next” great ideas were rewarded heavily with extremely high stock valuations they sold into before they brought their products up to speed. How will this effect future innovation in the short term and long term? We will see.

And Folks constantly mention 2016 over and over and over but fed rates went up in 2016 and made a large increase into 2019 before the pandemic. Why do people think 2009-2016 rates constantly being super low was totally fine and just? Beginning 2009 sure but after 2012 or 2013 time to raise is my guess?

This is complicated but kind of not. Trying to keep this as simple as possible for those who want to try to learn a “basic view and idea” of what the hell happened?! But no one knows exactly. But I hear some interesting opinions.

64120D63-886F-4663-94C4-9F4C61EC755F (resized).png

should have held out on carvana.. down 41% now holy crap that was a good short.

you shorted at $300 right?

I wish

Pfizer on a roll for the past month with lots of good news in the past week, beating earnings expectations by alot on Nov 1st, and a decent dividend. I bought more a month ago and those shares are already up over 8%. If you are looking for a Healthcare stock for the next year or two, this is a good one.

also take a look at THQ for a healthcare basket approach and pays a higher dividend then PFE

I have that one on my watchlist - been doing great lately

How should we interpret all that? Buy more oil stocks or energy stocks?

Meta is laying off a large number (hopefully).

I don’t understand why Zuck felt like he needed to spend boatloads of money on the metaverse. Most great companies or ideas start out small like FB, Google, Apple, Tesla etc. not sure when brute force works. If an idea is no good than no amount of money will make it work.

They say Mets has 87k employees and plans to fire many thousands. I’m not happy seeing people let go but when the company can’t make free cash then something has to go. The company should be about making profit for their shareholders.

Exactly why I shorted the stock - who spends billions on investment in a product that won't show any results in the near future in the current market.

They are laying off workers, but adding more people to the metaverse research - Dude has lost his way and needs to step down.

I think that Metaverse should be what Google calls ‘other bets’ where they just invest a bit not all their free cash.

I read a book how Xerox had their Palo Alto Research Center, they maybe had a few dozen people or less than a hundred people yet they invented much of what we consider modern day computers. Ethernet, laser printer, computer mouse, GUI interface, etc..

Xerox didn’t kill itself trying to make the computer revolution and the didn’t really profit from it that much but they were so early in time that it took way long to get to where it did get and other companies like Apple took off with it. This could be what the Metaverse becomes but I can’t see forcing it if it’s not happening.

Exactly - apple, microsoft, amazon, ebay, meta - they all didn't start with billions (back then millions) of initial investment.

Better off to leave the tech alone for now. If you have long term money in GOOG, AAPL, AMZN etc you can leave it but don't expect much performance in the short term. More cyclical than people believed and Covid distorted all their earnings then and now.

Big layoffs at Meta may be a good sign that they are jumping off the crazy train and reversing course. We shall see!

His assessment is that the oilfield services offer more upside with lower risk than the producers.

OIH has been playing catch up ytd. Up 60%. Primarily SLB and HAL

I just bought some HAL looking to hit $48-$50 target for me.

It's clear, based on recent comments from Biden himself, that there is not going to be a 180 on Energy policy after tuesday. Oilfield services would benefit from more drilling anyhow.

I was reading in Barron's about a big part of it is a lack of refining capacity in the US to refine the oil into gas. Even with more oil supply, we will have refining issues keeping gas prices high at the pump, possibly for years. Is anyone investing in MPC and PSX?

"High prices are hurting American consumers and the president’s approval ratings. But the latest results from oil refiners makes changing that look further out of reach. Refinery stocks rose on Tuesday after two of the biggest U.S. players posted better than expected earnings. Marathon Petroleum (ticker: MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX) were up 4.9% and 3%, respectively. Collectively they posted $7 billion in earnings in the quarter, up from $1 billion last year.

The fourth quarter is shaping up to be another strong one, with refiners expecting strong demand and tight supply to keep profits high. Supplies of gasoline aren’t growing fast enough to force prices down quickly. The refiners are already using almost all of their capacity and there’s not much new U.S. refining capacity on the horizon. Marathon used 98% of its capacity in the quarter, versus 93% a year ago; Phillips’ crude utilization rose to 91% from 86%.

Both companies are also converting traditional refineries that used to make gasoline into facilities to make renewable fuels, which tend to yield lower volumes. Overall, the U.S. has lost more than 1 million barrels of refining capacity since 2019."

Those are good ones. Valero VLO.

The “crack spread” has widened again, they make more $$$ when that happens

707839C1-24E6-4BBB-BAD7-C0546C56F015 (resized).png

FANG crushing it. $$$$

$2.26 per share in base + variable dividend. Total Q3 return including share buybacks was $4.83 per share.

Huge FCF, a 6.59 P/E

RSI is up to 73 or "overbought" in the short term. Buy on pullbacks.

https://ir.diamondbackenergy.com/static-files/3eeca7bb-494d-4057-84aa-706275f65608

I bought some more yesterday - thanks ICE

Oil is where wall street wants all the suckers to park $$$. Minimal gains long term I think

Why?

The "street" that has been underweight Energy all year has to play catch up and window dress their underperformance for 2022.

The "street" is anti fossil fuels but coming around to the reality now.

I’m going to get crushed on Disney in the morning.

I guess I'm a sucker, all the way to the bank.

Long term fundamentals for oil have not looked this good in a long time.

Elections matter.

Concerns over "windfall profits tax" if no House shift. Should get boost back as House becomes clearer later today.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3904647-energy-stocks-are-falling-with-congress-still-up-for-grabs