VERY bullish on Apple longer term. And think we see $200+ in 2023.

Tomorrow I think might be a bit of a positive surprise.

[Comment Removed]

Apple glasses could be a huge mover in 2023.

Not wise to bet against Apple.

They just destroyed META

I think Apple will be lucky to hold $150 after earnings no matter what they report. Apple is not immune to what is going on.

We shall see.

How can JEPI afford a 12% dividend? Is this sustainable? Usually, these types of investments have to cut their dividends at some point given the yield. Thanks.

I've been holding JEPI for some time (I sold QYLD, etc holdings). General consensus is the dividend is safe, but it probably won't grow with the price. It also may drop a bit if the volatility slows down in the market. If you buy it low, your yield will be fine. I bought in before the crash, so I'm about even with divs at the moment. I have not DCA'd yet.

The question is if you are interested, when to buy. This article thinks it has more downside in the near future.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4548565-jepi-ignore-market-pessimism-buy-dividend-yields

Well I went with the short on Carvana - earnings next thursday. Hoping it goes as well as meta did...

It's a fund, no different than drawing monthly from your own stock account.

I sold some MSFT 11/25/2022 215.00 Puts for $4 today. I already have plenty of MSFT, but wouldn't mind owning a bit more at net $211/share.

That would be a new 52w low if it gets there.

I'm long GOOG but not looking to own more of it right now.

Maybe people should brace themselves. It could be a wild ride for a while now. Amazon is down 14% after hours.

META… oof. Whacked hard again.

I keep thinking they can’t possibly succeed by trying to invent an entirely new private internet platform. The appeal of interconnectedness whether VR or not is its “anyone can jump in” nature. But Metaworld is firewalled off to Meta users only and I don’t think the entire world is going to accept the limitations of staying within one sandbox just to get business done. Too much control.

We need a VR standard which allows movement between platforms and the ability for anyone to tinker with it and build new things, without so much centralized control.

s ever...

Well, Oculus/FB is who wanted a walled garden. I don't see that changing. Problem is their hardware is cheap, so it is becoming standard. Someone else needs to step in with cheap(good) hardware and an open source code....but that will also scare people for its own reasons.

Meta should spin off Reality Labs and concentrate on ad business.

Apple is holding up at least, compared to the other big tech stocks.

Mark Zuckerberg is doing the opposite of what investors told him they wanted. Spending too much on ideas that have highly questionable development time lines and profitability.

It is but there is weakness in their earnings also. At least Apple staying on track but China, the economy and the rest of the tech market is likely to keep the stock down.

Missed another no Brainer zombie stock to short -credit suisse, maybe next time

It’s a covered call ETF. It continually sells covered calls on their holdings and pays out the Premiums as monthly income. I own USOI (oil as. Natural gas futures) and SLVO (silver) that are similar but ETN’s.

Thanks, I guess if you make 12% in dividends but lose 12% in appreciation, not that great. Might be a good one to pick up once it falls a bit further.

You are correct - they pay out pretty much everything they make from writing and dividends (and then some I suspect).

Most of these funds use some leverage also to juice the yield. Good for retirees or in a flat market.

Alibaba yay or nay? Isnt it better than amazon? How is it 60$?

China political risk is real and significant, don't go there (unless you are a good short term trader).

I am not sure you are looking at the income the right way. If you sell a covered call on a stock you own you gain the premium but that does not make your stock go down the price of the premium collected. Understand what I mean?

I mean if JEPI whole portfolio had a huge rise that could negatively impact the ETF with the positions being called away. I doubt they sell naked calls and or puts though.

Maybe “I” am missing something and Ice can chime in to fill in blanks if needed because he likely knows a lot more what he is doing with his wealth management and tax experience

Covered call investments are worth learning about IMHO.

Let’s review. We had a pause over 3850 with a wall of stops but we didn’t have FOMO buying over it (right?), some drama with large cap earnings happened and most big boys sold off but under the hood was alright with support in mid and smaller caps. This was not reflected as much in the SaP 500 or Daq 100 because it is so heavily weighted to the large caps. As you can see that is being steadily adjusted which is good for the indexes just IMHO. SO, we are entering end of Oct and Nov during a midterm election which historically has been a good time to buy.

Personally I lightened a little on my energy yesterday, BUT, I love the sector and “if” we get a pullback I will go stupid long on it. O don’t expect anything huge on pullback “if” we even get one. But market doesn’t care what I think or want. It will do what it does anyway.

Since no one cares to follow this - Fiscal deficits for Oct were pretty flat but we had a good boost yesterday of $24 Billion added from SS payments and we are at $55B total deficit for the month which is so so. Nov should be good. We are looking for a “big” interest payment coming in next week. Higher rates = more interest paid out. Some of this usually goes to equites another tailwind.

Info on Oct and Nov 1 below. 4100 has been my target as we climb “the wall of worry”. But I will reset counts and lighten up my core SPY “if we head that way” but counts will “likely” back down - sorry. Looks like if we go lower Monday “history” says the 21st trading day of Oct is a great day to go long. Hmmm

Just my “expectations”, but will pivot if I am off. Down 6.7% this year to show you the results of my methods. Discord I was more active. I type a lot. Lol. But like to keep things as simple as possible. I don’t watch the “financial” news or care about “why the market went up or down today”. 2022 was a lot of work to lose money to be honest. I tend to be a contrarian which like I said “sucks” because I cant sit and be too comfortable. 2020-22 was a time for contrarians to shine and I think the rest of the decade will not be anything like the 2010’s. Cheap oil, low interest rates and tech innovation explosion will likely not repeat although I wish it would. All IMHO.

Let’s see what the next month brings. I wish you all well

Have a good weekend.
35BB486D-C983-4B35-9350-E43DFC13675C (resized).jpeg3E7018C6-9BD8-4FD2-9DBE-A9A3B6E45F53 (resized).png6094FDDE-8168-4143-97B0-CE1DFF091E14 (resized).png

maybe I'm too early but I did get some Alphabet yesterday and Amazon today. Long term play unless there is a 10 to 15% quick rally

Foods for thought going into EOD.

- 3 days ago the S&P was lower than it is today. Since then, we've seen: AMZN -18%, GOOG -13%, MSFT -10%, META - 30%. Indexes 'should' have crashed lower, not gone higher?! Like I said, lots of under the radar strength beyond the giants. Edit - well from this morning.

“For fun” let’s track container shipments / pricing and business inventory. Shipments are down to the lowest level since 2009 and the cost to ship is 80% less. Also inventories are also “oddly” building up?? It’s not a sign of a “too hot / uncontrollable / runaway” economy in my view. Could this help with inflation?

Seems like all we have to do is get a “top” inflation to “start” to turn things around. The hardest part will be rates “probably” won’t be almost 0% and inflation won’t be 2% anymore. That’s a big pill to swallow. Life will go on.

0B7091E6-A309-4BA4-9F84-30D4313C158F (resized).png2DBC0A75-420E-4BE1-B3B6-1D6C40032B85 (resized).pngAECF4050-8B19-4B05-876F-7B33A2756748 (resized).jpeg

CEO comment on company not returning profits to the American people.

FE7A9D89-4897-4E8E-8844-6A60BCACC915 (resized).jpeg

Gee, how generous. Roughly half of Americans have any stocks at all, and of them, the top 10% own 70% of the entire market.

He must be referring to only certain Americans. Crudites, anyone? *nom nom*

What would you like him to do?

You don’t have to buy stock or you can buy stock - freedom. He was explaining how one “could” get part of the profits from a company. Like how it works. It costs $0 to open a trading account and $0 to trade a stock at Fidelity. It’s not a members only country club entry here.

The the market is “inclusive”. And I want everyone to do well. My Mom and Dad grew up single parent in poverty. They are millionaires now due to saving owning a business and the RE and Stock market. My world. They were teachers for years also.

But I also know folks who do well who don’t invest in the maket. Many ways to skin a cat. Owning a Business, Real Estate and/or being very good at a skill helps if one owns no equities.

FYI to close for those who do short term “The technical” folks are starting to tap out on this rally. I am looking at a good deficit payment next week to extend from 3900 to 4100. Will see what happens.

Have a good weekend.

You make a good point and I didn’t look but you are probably correct. It’s not easy to change and start but once you do and put the years of saving and sacrifice with labor saving and careful spending one will “probably” do well. And if you set good examples your kids will do well and the snowball of success will roll.

I look at things as “let Main Street get our slice” if we don’t large institutions will take it. That’s why I try to help folks of all backgrounds here and on other chats. I do what I do to beat WS’s asses to be honest. They kind of piss me off. Lol

Two ways to look at those figures - as a problem that can’t be adjusted or an opportunity.

Just IMHO.

Apple anyone? Phenomenal

No brainer. An economy unto itself

Dummy crowd still doesn’t get it.

Energy as well

Off the shutdown bench. $$$

I'm showing a nice upside on Mac again Ice.
Love my SPG too.

Nice Eric.

I’m looking forward to Twitter and Elon bringing it public in the future.

Cleaning up that cesspool should reap more advertising $$$

Elon a genius.

He’s going to try and turn it into WeChat. You could argue if that’s good or bad but should be interesting.

Good! I like Reits at this price point and after the recent sell off got back in a bunch of them after being out for a year. SPG - malls DOC - medical CCI - cell tower AVB - apartments TRNO REXR - industrials and oversold mortgage Reits - MFA GPMT. Will look to add more. Folks are looking at incoming yield competition and think this “could” be another 2009. In reality yield is only part of a Reit and at these lower prices yields are higher, the good ones have highly valued portfolios, strong retention rate and low interest rate debt. Things will get better when rates come down and inflation settles in lower but above what we are used to.

At these levels I like them for the years ahead.

Best of the FAANG but not doing much better than the S&P this YTD.

20% of AUM in one stock is never wise no matter how good its been.

Great long term play, I think probably a bit oversold. Can definitely nibble at it.

We are not out of the woods, still feels like a bear market rally to me.

I’m somewhat worried About Reits moving forward with the higher interest rates. That said, they certainly look more attractive than the market right now.

Anyone have any experience with CrowdStreet? How about it’s competitors like RealtyMogul and YeildStreet? I see CrowdStreet has a lot of Reits open for investment now.

I'm not sure what you consider 'not doing much better' than the S&P because it's 20% better than the S&P500 (one year returns) and 210% better over 5 years. If you need to cherry pick a date like YTD it's still 5% better than S&P.

Apple prints money, Ear Pods alone make more revenue than many leading tech companies, Apple has retired almost 40% of their shares outstanding in the past 10 years.

Warren Buffett also has 40% weight in Apple but he doesn't know Jack.

If you every studied portfolio management you would know what I mean.

I'm a holder of Apple (and have been for a long time) but I have trimmed back at $170 because the past is not the future, growth has slowed. Apple stock is only better than the S&P YTD because it spiked 7% Friday.

All good.. It's fine. I just think a big overweight position in the stock is not the way to position yourself going forward and i don't think it will outperform in the future. Maybe I'm wrong, that's what makes a market.

Yeah to put it simply “what investment are you not worried about now?”.

Reits “just” got sold off and that is factored in. SPG down 50% from last year, AVB DOC 30%, CCI STAG and REXR 40% etc.. This drop levels out the rate competition. But how much did their book value drop? Was there a huge amount of homes and developments built during the 2010’s? You need to buy the best managed ones though.

With anything if you wait to be comfortable to buy you likely will be a late which has risks also buying at higher prices. The market has been making some violent swings lately. I expect this to continue. Be careful “if” SaP is back up at 5000. Pretty easy to guess which directly a violent move “could” happen from there.

Rest of decade I am looking at REITS, miners and metals, healthcare, food and farming, industrials, defense, energy, banks, utilities and cash hedging outperforming. “As of now”. May not be tomorrow, next month or next year, but as the years roll on.

If this is correct - YUCK!!