High Roller Casino
Stern, 2001Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:Foreign exchange is nuts too. Euro is at parity with the dollar again. When I moved from Japan 10 years ago it was 75 yen to the dollar. As a general rule, looking around town things that cost about $1 cost 100 Yen so that was a huge hinderance to taking the family out. This morning it is 143 yen to the dollar. Stuff like that makes exporting hard and adds up.
US multinationals are going to take a huge currency hit. Never want the USD this strong.
Quoted from kool1:US multinationals are going to take a huge currency hit. Never want the USD this strong.
If I was still in uniform and stationed in Japan I'd be having a field day. Example... PS5 is 49,900 Yen in Japan and $500 in the USA. Thats about $350 in US to Yen exchanged dollars at 143 yen to the dollar. However on the flip side that John Deer Tractor made in the USA gets really expensive and hard to sell over there.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:If I was still in uniform and stationed in Japan I'd be having a field day. Example... PS5 is 49,900 Yen in Japan and $500 in the USA. Thats about $350 in US to Yen exchanged dollars at 143 yen to the dollar. However on the flip side that John Deer Tractor made in the USA gets really expensive and hard to sell over there.
When I was stationed in Spain - we would take multiple trips to Turkey for exercises. Each time the Lira got weaker, but the local vendors always "adjusted" their prices so everything always cost about the same.
I don't know what will happen in the market tomorrow, but I'm giving a better than even chance Russia announces full war mobilization by the end of the month (September 2022), a spike in oil prices, the Euro trading for under a dollar, and a 5% + crash in the German stock market.
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:I don't know what will happen in the market tomorrow, but I'm giving a better than even chance Russia announces full war mobilization by the end of the month (September 2022), a spike in oil prices, the Euro trading for under a dollar, and a 5% + crash in the German stock market.
All of the above in 10 days? I think I'd take the other side of that bet.
Quoted from kool1:If I was a betting man I say we get a rally post fed announcement. Set up is all there.
I don't make those bets though. Buy oil on the dip.
I heard the same this morning on the shows. Not willing to throw down money, but I may cherry pick today and tomorrow morning
Quoted from kool1:If I was a betting man I say we get a rally post fed announcement. Set up is all there.
I don't make those bets though. Buy oil on the dip.
Oil companies? Like Exxon, etc?
Quoted from TheFamilyArcade:Oil companies? Like Exxon, etc?
Sure - collect a dividend now and you should not only get stability but good growth also.
My favorite is COP.
Quoted from kool1:You would need a significant negative shock to make new lows here.
Could happen but I still think the S&P will likely bounce.
100 points to go...
Quoted from SantaEatsCheese:Foreign exchange is nuts too. Euro is at parity with the dollar again. When I moved from Japan 10 years ago it was 75 yen to the dollar. As a general rule, looking around town things that cost about $1 cost 100 Yen so that was a huge hinderance to taking the family out. This morning it is 143 yen to the dollar. Stuff like that makes exporting hard and adds up.
Does this mean the Japanese auto manufacturers will be lowering their prices in the USA?
Quoted from WeirPinball:100 points to go...
Looks like intraday we will get through there on the open. Looks really ugly this morning.
Quoted from kool1:Looks like intraday we will get through there on the open. Looks really ugly this morning.
bounced off it at 12:30
Quoted from kvan99:Well, it has arrived....the panic selling has begun. Powell really blew it.
Powell is just trying to clean up the mess.
Quoted from jchristian11:Powell is just trying to clean up the mess.
The mess he and his cronies created in the first place.
Quoted from loneacer:The mess he and his cronies created in the first place.
WTF is a central bank for other than manipulating other peoples ideals on the market. Let the free market set prices.
Quoted from DropGems:Fed deadset to over tighten and break economy. Stocks ultimately go lower until guidance changes.
Correct - staying 20% cash
Market is clearly ready to go lower now - Sucks
Quoted from kool1:Correct - staying 20% cash
Market is clearly ready to go lower now - Sucks
I'm still at 88.5% cash - call me crazy, but glad I've been paranoid so far. Down 2.25% for the year plus whatever damage inflation did to my cash
Quoted from WeirPinball:I'm still at 88.5% cash - call me crazy, but glad I've been paranoid so far. Down 2.25% for the year plus whatever damage inflation did to my cash
Nice. Was the one year in the last decade that staying cash actually worked! But well played.
Quoted from kool1:Correct - staying 20% cash
Market is clearly ready to go lower now - Sucks
I'm not so sure. After professor Sigel's tirade on Cnbc I think Powell may have to rethink his nose bleed rate hike strategy... I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a bit more dovish in the next meeting. Also Fed Chicago president Evans said he's nervous about the speed of the rate hikes...he cautioned it would be wise to wait for more data. We could be looking at the bottom at least in the near term.
Quoted from WeirPinball:New Market sentiment- sell on any strength
been that way basically all year
but it's got to turn sooner or later
Quoted from kvan99:I'm not so sure. After professor Sigel's tirade on Cnbc I think Powell may have to rethink his nose bleed rate hike strategy... I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a bit more dovish in the next meeting. Also Fed Chicago president Evans said he's nervous about the speed of the rate hikes...he cautioned it would be wise to wait for more data. We could be looking at the bottom at least in the near term.
There is no re-thinking. Powell has been clear as he can be. Market is priced for 75 50 and 25 bps for the next 3 meetings. The only thing that will stop the Fed is a clear break on inflation. Pause will come we see that but we need 2-3 months of declining inflation data.
Market won't bounce significantly until the Fed signals it's done or almost done.
Quoted from kool1:There is no re-thinking. Powell has been clear as he can be. Market is priced for 75 50 and 25 bps for the next 3 meetings. The only thing that will stop the Fed is a clear break on inflation. Pause will come we see that but we need 2-3 months of declining inflation data.
Market won't bounce significantly until the Fed signals it's done or almost done.
True but once the CPI prints a decline the market won't wait for Powell.. It will bounce... It's way oversold. Commodity prices have collapsed, housing prices are falling for the first time in years, the job market will also show sign of softening.. He better tap the brakes or he will go down as the 2nd Arthur Burns.
Quoted from kvan99:True but once the CPI prints a decline the market won't wait for Powell.. It will bounce... It's way oversold. Commodity prices have collapsed, housing prices are falling for the first time in years, the job market will also show sign of softening.. He better tap the brakes or he will go down as the 2nd Arthur Burns.
Almost any good news will cause a bounce right now so ya... will it sustain and what will be the follow up from Powell determines if that was a good selling opportunity.
Quoted from DadofTwins:It's always manipulation. Small guys are just along for the ride.
They don't make money without price movements
Quoted from PinStalker:This level is the bounce before a lot more down..... not a staging point for more up.
They're just suckering people in for a little while. Everyone is so impatient.
You'll see in Oct.
Called it months in advance and got the timing perfect as well.
Lows of the year with much lower lows coming.
Enjoy!!!
I'm trying a new strategy with my stocks, when I buy the shares I buy puts to protect my downside and sell out of the money calls (which help cover the excess premiums on the puts). I limit my upside to the call price but have no downside risk. Will see how it works out long term.
Quoted from pinballjah:I'm trying a new strategy with my stocks, when I buy the shares I buy puts to protect my downside and sell out of the money calls (which help cover the excess premiums on the puts). I limit my upside to the call price but have no downside risk. Will see how it works out long term.
Its not a strategy you want to have on all the time or long term but it's probably ok short term. Environment is still very negative.
Sold my high yield debt this week also, I think spread could widen further. Sit in money more market fund for a while. Again personal trade only, our don't have much high yield anyway.
Good go lower (but please don’t lol), will continue to buy cheaper shares to average down. I'm 100% invested in index funds for my 401k which have taken a beating over the past year, target date plans are just as worst if not lower. The good news is the market will go back up and set new highs, always does. The worst thing someone can do now is jump off the rollercoaster as it’s heading down. Have close to 20 years left for retirement so I expect to go through this at least a few more times.
Quoted from kool1:Its not a strategy you want to have on all the time or long term but it's probably ok short term. Environment is still very negative.
Sold my high yield debt this week also, I think spread could widen further. Sit in money more market fund for a while. Again personal trade only, our don't have much high yield anyway.
A couple weeks ago I nibbled on some higher yielding bank preferreds (spread around JPM, SBNY, MS, WFC) which have not done well in the last couple of weeks. Not sure if I should hang on, average in, or dump. Only one of them has a maturity date.
HY bond funds I bought this week look promising. There is def yield out there to have now that TINA finally died.
What is your advice for the bond part of a retiree portfolio? I'm retired, but never really invested much in fixed income.
90BF2616-450A-4A4A-ACEF-71FED0D73CEE (resized).jpegJobs report Friday
Quoted from RTR:A couple weeks ago I nibbled on some higher yielding bank preferreds (spread around JPM, SBNY, MS, WFC) which have not done well in the last couple of weeks. Not sure if I should hang on, average in, or dump. Only one of them has a maturity date.
HY bond funds I bought this week look promising. There is def yield out there to have now that TINA finally died.
What is your advice for the bond part of a retiree portfolio? I'm retired, but never really invested much in fixed income.
[quoted image]
Did you buy a high yield bond fund or individual bonds?
I think they are ok but if you buy individual names do your homework on the companies.
We generally keep older clients in investment grade bonds, government bonds and guaranteed term certificates. Small amounts of high yield are ok but we don't recommend big allocations as they can get volatile. Bonds allocations are there for income but also meant to keep portfolio volatility down. Most retired clients are at 60/50 or 70/30 equity to fixed these days though we are tilting to more fixed income with rates being higher now.
Quoted from kool1:Jobs report Friday
Did you buy a high yield bond fund or individual bonds?
I think they are ok but if you buy individual names do your homework on the companies.
We generally keep older clients in investment grade bonds, government bonds and guaranteed term certificates. Small amounts of high yield are ok but we don't recommend big allocations as they can get volatile. Bonds allocations are there for income but also meant to keep portfolio volatility down. Most retired clients are at 60/50 or 70/30 equity to fixed these days though we are tilting to more fixed income with rates being higher now.
The bond ETFs are SJNK and SHYG. They have both been hammered this year and now have a 30 day yield in the 7s. Not huge positions, just been buying small lots of each over the last 2 weeks.
The bank preferreds act a little like bonds but only one of them has a maturity date. Some are fixed rate, some floating. Bought them a little too early back in July/august and they are down about 6% now. Currently yield around 6.2%.
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