Amazon and Apple report their earnings tomorrow, both got nice bumps today.

Hmm...isn't this the normal process?

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/federal-just-moved-credit-cards-180108613.html

The Federal Reserve just moved to make your credit cards, mortgages, and car loans more expensive in hopes you'll spend less and help cool inflation

Tomorrow the recession becomes official with the second negative GDP print in a row...... that has to be good for 10,000 points to the upside at least.

Feeling from fed that the end of rate hikes may slow and the end may be near.

Market wants to hear this. I'm not so sure we are there yet.

Well here is the thing... no one lives in reality anymore especially media.

CNN has been saying for weeks that two periods of down GDP are a recession.

Then it happens and instead of calling it they say "are we in a recession?"

Its a joke... we are and have been in recession despite their fake jobs numbers and they need to stop the bullshit and deal with it.

Nothing has a proper definition anymore and all data is suspect so what do you do?

CNN is not a business channel - watch Bloomberg

The data showing negative growth is there but given how small the shrinkage is and the fact there is essentially full employment, it definitely doesn't feel like a traditional recession.

Chicken Noodle News I refer to it as

I used to watch CNN but noticed that lately it seems to be a bit more biased. I’m looking for more objective content in my news.

Neither CNN or FOX have been unbiased for over a decade. It amazes me that anyone still thinks these businesses are anything less than shock value opinion shows to drive ads. I do think FOX is way more obvious because they don't even try to hide the hate anymore.

Now, having said that. Good luck to any average person knowing what is true or not. No one has time to deep dive research and cross reference everything happening day to day when there's always someone yelling "that's fake/biased" regardless of where it came from.

To keep it on topic, you don't even know when it comes to these earnings calls. It's not like the data isn't manipulated in many cases to make them sound better than they are. It's generally fancy accounting. In many cases it isn't in the companies best interest to be up front and transparent. We just don't find out about it until later (even with all the outsiders looking at the numbers).

Ya - sad statement on the world today. Best thing you can do is watch different sources.

Markets are climbing nicely but don't get too comfortable. I'm not sure another downdraft isn't around the corner.

It is surprising that they actively repulse at least 30% of the possible consumers. How does this make business sense? Must be some great data that thinking alike draws more people then understanding both sides.

With the strong dollar, war, and Russia possibly turning lights out on German manufacturing- how can markets rally?
Anybody see the Chipotle CEO saying they are raising prices again and it is basically the same price as getting these items from grocery store? Which grocery store? I went the other day, it was $15 for a burrito, chips, and a drink! This or 10 tacos at TBell? Probably still go with CMG but that PE is looking unsustainable.

They are all full of shit... as is the current administration.

The last thing they need around a midterm is a recession but thats where we are and they need to shut the fuck up and get to work.

As usual they deny and drag their feet and will act too late and things get out of control.

I thought I wrote this in my last post...

I keep seeing people saying employment is strong, but the layoffs are just beginning. Tech is/was first, but it is spreading. I still think what we are seeing is a natural rubberband effect. It is clear that things are not 'back to normal' in in supply lines, although better, and people are STILL complaining they can't find workers. It's a weird time.

As for prices, around here we see the increases, but the biggest increases seems to be around prepared food. In grocery stores and restaurants. The shelf stocked items they have been shrinking the portions as they normally do to counter price increases.

If people have to get a second job just to fill up their gas tanks, maybe the jobs numbers they're relying so heavily on aren't as they seem. Not to mention once you stop looking for work, you are no longer included in the jobs number.

I had two of my friends lose their jobs yesterday. Granted these were not wonderful jobs, but still. There's a lot going on out there that is not visible.... yet.
Very hard listening to grown men try and verbalize that quiet frustration of "what do I do now?". That's being repeated all over the country...... unless you're looking to work at McDonald's.

Wait for Oct, you'll see by then.... and by then everyone will..... and then it'll be too late.

They'll push hard to keep the market up, or even slightly higher, and then with all that struggling and effort the turd will finally slide out. LOL!!!

They have a hard time with “definitions”. Recession? What’s a woman? Lol

Yeah the risk/reward setup in the market is good for the next 6-12 months.

Big cap tech, certain beaten up growth and Energy.

Thanks to MSFT and GOOGL especially! Apple is next today.

Things are never as bad or good as reported. Just another big market opportunity again.

There is always the “this time it’s different crowd” and we are going into a 10 yr depression.

The emotions of “fear and greed” will destroy your returns if you can’t control them. Tough to do.

Like I’ve said before, Investing is the only business in the world that when the store announces a sale over the loud speakers people start running for the exits. Lol

Just curious if some will chime in please.
I own mostly individual stocks.
How many individual stocks do you own?
I average about 75-90. Even on down days I can be up overall. I feel like sometimes I have my own index fund I'm spread out over most every sector.

254

Its gotten ridiculous.... just kick the can down the road.

Much like the "fixing the environment" thing. Should have maybe started on that 30 years ago?

A bit late now and giving me a fucking paper straw or making plastic bags illegal isn't going to change that.

Ya, 90 probably too many stocks

20-30 high conviction names is lots. Our portfolios are usually no more than 30, and I think that's too many.

It is a weird time but we have never had a global pandemic and war at the same time so expect the unexpected.

Inflation will be hard to slay with energy prices high and global supply disruptions. I don't see any quick solutions.

I mean..as with everything, the reason it is kicked down the road is this mindset here. It didn't just pop up out of nowhere, this has been a topic for decades. If you don't ever start, you never make any progress, and in every case it's the same people screaming 'nooooooo' preventing any changes. I do think that you need to have a good plan to 'replace' whatever you are outlawing though. Paper straws are an abomination.

Regarding Chipotle, my daughter eats like a bird. She would eat half a bowl at best. It’d be nice if they had a child size imo. If they say it’s the ingredients cost surely a half size portion should be able to sell at a lower price.

There’s fantasy land virtue signaling and then there is straight up reality.

Look at Europe and their dependence on Russia. They get it now. The reality part.

The funny thing, it’s Exxon, Chevron, BP and others that are leading the way to the future in “renewables”. Hydrogen, carbon capture etc.

It will take decades and they have begun with billions of investment.

The government? If it was so good and effective why do they need to “incentivize” these poor money losing investments.

Leave to Tesla, Ford, GM etc and the Energy companies and get out of the way.

What do you think would happen if everyone drove an EV today? How is the electricity gonna get powered? Fantasy land thinking. Lol

Progress is an evolution, not the flip of a switch.

Oh and as far as the voters go, 1% of Americans and 3% of Democrats make this “green energy” the top priority.

I like allsides.com, it provides different views on the same topic.

A timeless sentiment that is true in any year of all of American history!

Best time to start was 30 years ago. Second best time to start is now.

A noticeable impact probably won't come from handing people paper straws. At the same time, I'm always baffled that people express more outrage toward tiny inconveniences like straw composition than they do over historic wildfires and fresh water shortages.

Hold mega corps accountable for the damage they've done (and continue to do) to the environment. That won't happen as long as they're allowed to fund campaigns. They love that we're talking about straws.

You are playing a losers game. Just buy the index it’s much cheaper and efficient overall. Not financial advice. Just sayin…

None. All index 500. Even with current downer my return is about 11% apy over last 10 years. Which is good enough for me.

It’s also what you could expect return wise annually going all the way back to 1929. We’ll done sir!

Right. Take the long term. I don’t see it as the market just dropped. I see how much I have made over the years.

That’s a lot but if it makes you feel comfortable go for it OR just buy the Spiders

I currently own 5 stocks, bunch of put selling and covered calls.

For clients, my models are 20-30 stocks.

Fwiw, Tom Lee main model has 33 stocks, very diversified.

Just look at our fearless leaders today.

"We are not in a recession"

Um, yah we are asshole, just ask me and everyone else I know who owns a business. We are and have been in one.

They have two modes... under-react and then panic and over-react when they get it wrong (which is most times).

100% correct. They are gaslighting the world!

Apple knocked it out of the park again.

That’s a cute sentiment. 33 stocks is hardly diverse unless you are buying indices.

Amazon good bet should pay off tomorrow. https://www.investors.com/news/technology/amazon-stock-jumps-earnings-beat-estimates/

It's highly diversified and you should def stick to the indexes smart ass. Lol

Now 5 stocks? Don’t do it like I do.

And with that said, it's been a GREAT week fellas! Boom boom.

I had 40 at max but moving to Core & Satellite . I plan to have 75% in a few ETFs and 25% in 10-15 stocks.

There are how many stocks in the S&P 500?

Yep, you guessed it. 500. Lol

Out of those 500, if you are doing it yourself, pick your top 30, buy and hold, and then buy more when they go on sale.

Apple, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are good places to start.

Every time they dip and there is short term fear and panic. Buy more and you will
Be rewarded long term. Requires a little patience.

Or just buy the indexes and you will do better than most IF you don’t try and time the market in and out.

Dollar cost average. Power of compounding

There’s a term for this type of strategy, “home bias”, check out how many time the US has been the top country for growth over the last 20 years. You may be leaving gains on the table without exposure to EM and International markets. I think you’ll be surprised to see how many times the US was at the top of the list.

Zero Emerging Markets the last 5 years here.

Even the new Bond King Jeff Gundlach, whose bonds funds have been awful like all of them said no EEM yet. Horrendous performance. And since I manage over a Billion $$$ for folks it matters

Zero Bonds, Zero EEM or international now

The 5 yr return on the EEM is -8% and the 10 yr total return is a whopping 1%. Maybe you are surprised by that?

Either way, the rest of the world is a no go for me now, the US, despite the idiot leadership is still far and away #1.

It’s worked out well. I’ll take the companies I mentioned that sell all over the world.

Google the lost decade. From Jan 2000 to dec 2009 S&P 500 was down -9.1%. EM value did over 400%. Check me.

Ancient history. We are here today and have to make decisions based on what we think going forward. Staying out of that sector has been huge the past decade. It took me 2016 to finally cut the cord altogether.

The amount of money made staying out of EEM the past decade is right there to see with our own eyes.

As the rest of the world is in a recession and now suffering from the failed Green Energy polices of the past several years they are now paying the heavy price.

It’s been OVER a decade that international/EEM has been an option and they still aren’t. And will be avoidable for the foreseeable future

We don’t buy all 500 stocks. Take a peak at the performance of big cap tech. Google it

Apple is up 615% the past 10 yrs. EEM? 1%

Check me. Been there for the entire ride

Still waiting? Lol

As far as stocks go we split up how we handle things. My wife has a traditional tech job for income and she has stock grants from that company, two different index stocks, Meta and Microsoft, that's it, so she went the more traditional/safe route. As for me I have my business that provides my income and only have one stock, Tesla, so I went a non traditional route.

Neither of us day trades so our only interest is in long term investing, in this case to 2030 when we can both officially access our IRA's.

I bet you $100 I can beat any portfolio you run over a 20 year timeframe going back to 1929. Remember GE and Sears? They were the Apple and Google of today and we both know how that worked out. Just think of the shear currency play where as we inflate the dollar we can buy more goods outside the US than before hence lifting those markets outside the US. Btw US was only the top country for growth in the last 20 years once!

Good luck to you.

I never time the markets. You can’t beat the market in the long term stock picking. Your clients wouldn’t be down 30% since November if they weren’t all in large cap growth is all.

And they aren’t. Just saying.

Did you hear about ENERGY? FANG and DVN have been two my biggest holdings.

Check my posts here since November. This is why I have clients that keep growing along with the legal and tax I provide as an attorney and CPA. Don’t like to pat myself on the back except to people like yourself.

Google what the returns have been ytd and 1 yr? No brainers?

Throw in some PXD, CVX, OXY, you name it.

And I’ll happily collect the massive FCF dividend along the way. Thanks to the world green energy policies. Lol

Can’t argue that. Commodities and real estate have been a few bright spots lately. Value did outpace growth from 2020 to mid 2021.

DVN energy is up 135% for 1 yr and 33% ytd along with paying double digits Divs.

The XLE is up 31% ytd

Been banging that fossil fuel drum for a long time now. Right here

The ESG crowd finally threw in the towel and is dealing with reality.