(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

5 years ago


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#16951 49 days ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

down around 75% off it's high .... hasn't it already crashed?

I mean CRASHED!

#16952 49 days ago

Yeah, take that sucker under 3k again.

I think 1K would be very good for it. When everyone says "I'll never use/buy it again" (and they mean it), then it will be fairly priced.

#16953 49 days ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Rally is expected to continue next week, pushing the S&P to 4000.
"Goldman trading desk estimates, there is a net $30 billion of US equities to buy from US pensions given the moves in equities and bonds over the month and quarter."

Glad I don't day trade based on these "experts". They weren't even close to right on this call. Only trade beside selling weekly calls or cash covered puts I've made in a few months was buying a bit of SHOP earlier this week. Of course it's already down like 15% in 3 days. I sold a weekly call on it at 10% below my purchase price just hoping to make a quick buck, so I'm barely down on it. A lot more risk than I expected though just to make lunch money for a week.

#16954 49 days ago

Shop has been disappointing thought that split would play out better.

#16955 49 days ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

Yeah, take that sucker under 3k again.
I think 1K would be very good for it. When everyone says "I'll never use/buy it again" (and they mean it), then it will be fairly priced.

No bottom on it. Microsoft buying yesterday did nothing LOL.

Could turn very ugly if panic selling sets in.

#16956 49 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data shows that the S&P 500 has bounced back after all past first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size, however, is small, with only five instances going back to 1932. Will this time be different? It's crazy to think the last time the Market dropped this much in half a year was 1970.
[quoted image]

here comes a new record, breaking the all time low of 55% with this administration.

#16957 49 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

Shop has been disappointing thought that split would play out better.

I started eyeing it at 650 and finally pulled the trigger cost adjusted for the option at about $332 ($33.20 post split). So I'm currently down $1.20 a share. They still seem pricey based on earnings estimates for this year and next, but their price/sales is under 1 I think. Lowest they've traded on several fundamental measures in about 8 years.

#16958 49 days ago

I've been watching split stocks trying to determine when is a good time to get in...and so far..nothing looks good...nothing....nothing....

You would think there'd be something that makes bank during these things...like liquor, drugs, pharma, check cashing places/pay day loans, guns, home security, cybersecurity. Just not seeing it. Even energy is taking a dump. Maybe I should look into mega yachts. That business seems to be booming.

#16959 49 days ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I've been watching split stocks trying to determine when is a good time to get in...and so far..nothing looks good...nothing....nothing....
You would think there'd be something that makes bank during these things...like liquor, drugs, pharma, check cashing places/pay day loans, guns, home security, cybersecurity. Just not seeing it. Even energy is taking a dump. Maybe I should look into mega yachts. That business seems to be booming.

Shorts and puts are printing

#16960 49 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

I mean CRASHED!

I expect it go go lower, probably below $10k, but I still consider 75% a crash
Glad I sold at 30k wish I sold at 60k

#16961 49 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

Shop has been disappointing thought that split would play out better.

I bought some at $360 and again $304.70 pre split and some more today at $31.10
BUT, when it briefly rose again past $360 I sold the higher position

Long term this is going to be a great stock
I use their platform for my business and it's extremely good!

#16962 49 days ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I bought some at $304.70 pre split and some more today at $31.10
Long term this is going to be a great stock
I use their platform for my business and it's extremely good!

Im still holding, long term play to me

#16963 49 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

Shorts and puts are printing

I am just not good at options, and I have this inherent dislike of betting against.

#16964 49 days ago
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:

I expect it go go lower, probably below $10k, but I still consider 75% a crash
Glad I sold at 30k wish I sold at 60k

It is for a stock - crypto is a different ball game. No intrinsic value.

Quoted from Zablon:

I've been watching split stocks trying to determine when is a good time to get in...and so far..nothing looks good...nothing....nothing....
You would think there'd be something that makes bank during these things...like liquor, drugs, pharma, check cashing places/pay day loans, guns, home security, cybersecurity. Just not seeing it. Even energy is taking a dump. Maybe I should look into mega yachts. That business seems to be booming.

All asset prices were inflated (including pinball). I think all asset prices will come down at least a little.

Hold your cash.

#16965 48 days ago

BTC's crash is dejavu all over again, it has gone down -99% before coming back. It will will take a few years but it will come back. It's not me saying it, it's history talking. I just don't know if the bottom is in....probably not till we get some positive news coming into the market. For now there is nothing but doom and gloom on the menu....need inflation to come down, need earnings reset, need Ukraine war to end. After all of that and if somehow we miraculously avoided a recession then we can have our comeback rally. For now raise some capital and wait.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/7-biggest-bitcoin-crashes-history-180038282.html

#16966 48 days ago
Quoted from kvan99:

BTC's crash is dejavu all over again, it has gone down -99% before coming back. It will will take a few years but it will come back. It's not me saying it, it's history talking. I just don't know if the bottom is in....probably not till we get some positive news coming into the market. For now there is nothing but doom and gloom on the menu....need inflation to come down, need earnings reset, need Ukraine war to end. After all of that and if somehow we miraculously avoided a recession then we can have our comeback rally. For now raise some capital and wait.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/7-biggest-bitcoin-crashes-history-180038282.html

I remember making lots of money off Bitcoin Cash when it came out, and later as it fluctuated around $700.... now it's less than a hundred bucks.
No reason BTC can't be the same.

I'd love an asset that completely holds against inflation: a True stable coin, not just a dollar peg..... oh right, that's what gold should be (but isn't). HA!!!

#16967 48 days ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

I remember making lots of money off Bitcoin Cash when it came out, and later as it fluctuated around $700.... now it's less than a hundred bucks.
No reason BTC can't be the same.
I'd love an asset that completely holds against inflation: a True stable coin, not just a dollar peg..... oh right, that's what gold should be (but isn't). HA!!!

4C3F1C4E-3EBF-4D15-AC8A-5D80A72EF235 (resized).jpeg
#16968 48 days ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

I remember making lots of money off Bitcoin Cash when it came out, and later as it fluctuated around $700.... now it's less than a hundred bucks.
No reason BTC can't be the same.
I'd love an asset that completely holds against inflation: a True stable coin, not just a dollar peg..... oh right, that's what gold should be (but isn't). HA!!!

Gold opened Jan 4th at $1811 now at $1804, not holding up to inflation yet, but I'll take it over most investments right now

#16969 48 days ago
Quoted from PinStalker:

I'd love an asset that completely holds against inflation: a True stable coin, not just a dollar peg..... oh right, that's what gold should be (but isn't). HA!!!

wnp (resized).PNG

#16970 48 days ago

This thread has moved so far from what it was originally created for. Crypto, gold, muff 'n puff - time to put it down?

#16971 48 days ago
Quoted from Methos:

This thread has moved so far from what it was originally created for. Crypto, gold, muff 'n puff - time to put it down?

How about you share a good play and put it back on track?

#16972 48 days ago

GRN continues to defy all trends. Ah, if only I'd sold everything in December to put into this.

#16973 48 days ago
Quoted from Methos:

This thread has moved so far from what it was originally created for. Crypto, gold, muff 'n puff - time to put it down?

This thread is only following the market.

#16974 48 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

How about you share a good play and put it back on track?

Sure.

Put it all in cash, or you should have months ago.

#16975 48 days ago
Quoted from nwpinball:

Data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data shows that the S&P 500 has bounced back after all past first-half falls of 15% or more. The sample size, however, is small, with only five instances going back to 1932. Will this time be different? It's crazy to think the last time the Market dropped this much in half a year was 1970.

The problem here is that we are in a recession but no one has been willing to call it yet so news is still up and down.

Plus todays market doesn't have much relation to the earlier ones since the fed has pretty much propped this up on its shoulders since 2008.

When the spinning plate show stops and everyone finally has to admit we are there in full blown recession the real drop will start.

People can "buy the dip" all they want but from what I know the real drop hasn't even started yet.

The fed had been dicking around with the market since 2008... their taps are finally off. Good luck.

#16976 48 days ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

Gold opened Jan 4th at $1811 now at $1804, not holding up to inflation yet, but I'll take it over most investments right now

May as well hold cash. Gold has been dead money for a few years now.

#16977 48 days ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

The problem here is that we are in a recession but no one has been willing to call it yet so news is still up and down.
Plus todays market doesn't have much relation to the earlier ones since the fed has pretty much propped this up on its shoulders since 2008.
When the spinning plate show stops and everyone finally has to admit we are there in full blown recession the real drop will start.
People can "buy the dip" all they want but from what I know the real drop hasn't even started yet.
The fed had been dicking around with the market since 2008... their taps are finally off. Good luck.

Recession doesn't matter. The worry on Wall Street is inflation and how big a recession we need to quash inflation. The more stubborn inflation is, the further the market will drop.

#16978 48 days ago

These still are not normal circumstances. The world is not in a good place as a whole. I can't say if it is similar to WWI or WWII era type scenarios(leading up), but things are still reeling from the pandemic and the aftermath. It's funny that not a month ago people were complaining about not being able to find workers, and now they are trying to lay the people who want to work off. Guess what, that isn't going to solve the issue.

#16979 48 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

May as well hold cash. Gold has been dead money for a few years now.

If you bought gold pre-pandemic, you've made at least 20%. I guess that's not terribly exciting for some people, but it's also far from "dead".

#16980 48 days ago
Quoted from mattosborn:

If you bought gold pre-pandemic, you've made at least 20%. I guess that's not terribly exciting for some people, but it's also far from "dead".

I've definitely done better with stocks even with this pull back.

#16981 48 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

Recession doesn't matter. The worry on Wall Street is inflation and how big a recession we need to quash inflation. The more stubborn inflation is, the further the market will drop.

It matters for perception...

all the news is "are we heading into recession or not" blah blah which causes some of the up and down and is keeping it propped up a bit.

When the news turns to "guess what? we are in a recession" watch out.

#16982 48 days ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

It matters for perception...
all the news is "are we heading into recession or not" blah blah which causes some of the up and down and is keeping it propped up a bit.
When the news turns to "guess what? we are in a recession" watch out.

I don't think the bulk of people are really impacted yet. You certainly wouldn't know it. I think at this time the only changes from the last 6 months is higher mortgage rates, and higher interest rates in general - that really only impact companies in the short term. Sure gas prices are high, but that isn't going to go away with inflation, even the oil companies are saying that. Once all the layoffs get rolling, we'll see more impact to the rest of the population.

#16983 48 days ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

It matters for perception...
all the news is "are we heading into recession or not" blah blah which causes some of the up and down and is keeping it propped up a bit.
When the news turns to "guess what? we are in a recession" watch out.

I don't think so, negative growth doesn't affect people much. Unless layoffs start happening (what I meant by a deep recession) no one really pulls back that much.

With that all said, I am very worried this inflation we have today will be very hard to kill and I think it could get ugly.

#16984 48 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

I don't think so, negative growth doesn't affect people much. Unless layoffs start happening (what I meant by a deep recession) no one really pulls back that much.
With that all said, I am very worried this inflation we have today will be very hard to kill and I think it could get ugly.

I think what effects the mentality of "having money to blow" (decline of investment portfolios/crypto) is definitely starting to hit retail spending. Just look at how much the NIB hype has cooled off in the market place.

#16985 48 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

I don't think so, negative growth doesn't affect people much. Unless layoffs start happening (what I meant by a deep recession) no one really pulls back that much.
With that all said, I am very worried this inflation we have today will be very hard to kill and I think it could get ugly.

I am a business owner and thats how I see as do most others in my position with employees etc.. recession is really the concern.

As you say I know companies that have already had hiring freezes so layoffs are next.

Call it whatever you want... none of the news is good, just semantics really.

It's already ugly, people just don't see it. Takes a while for the news and mood to match reality.

#16986 48 days ago
Quoted from Elvishasleft:

I am a business owner and thats how I see as do most others in my position with employees etc.. recession is really the concern.
As you say I know companies that have already had hiring freezes so layoffs are next.
Call it whatever you want... none of the news is good, just semantics really.
It's already ugly, people just don't see it. Takes a while for the news and mood to match reality.

Yeah, data for my neck of the woods isn’t all that great.

A6CCA1CD-A039-4397-A7D5-46DAEBF1419B.jpeg
#16987 48 days ago
Quoted from WeirPinball:

I think what effects the mentality of "having money to blow" (decline of investment portfolios/crypto) is definitely starting to hit retail spending. Just look at how much the NIB hype has cooled off in the market place.

NIB has also cooled because Stern has decent supply for once. Many of those back orders finally cleared.

That said I agree, for people with assets in market I definitely feel a bit less likely to make a big purchaae now vs 6 months ago.

#16988 47 days ago

It’s not the end of the world fellas although it might seem like it with incompetence running rampant. Truly astounding

The pendulum is swinging back.

Now we do get these run of the mill bear markets routinely and not all recessions are created equal.

Here is the futures market for inflation which has come down significantly the last two weeks.

Nobody rings the dinner bell when the bottom is in.

So hang in there fellas and have a great patriotic 4th!
57AAF0C9-AF71-4975-802D-CBEB735C2456 (resized).jpeg

#16989 47 days ago
Quoted from iceman44:

It’s not the end of the world fellas although it might seem like it with incompetence running rampant. Truly astounding
The pendulum is swinging back.
Now we do get these run of the mill bear markets routinely and not all recessions are created equal.
Here is the futures market for inflation which has come down significantly the last two weeks.
Nobody rings the dinner bell when the bottom is in.
So hang in there fellas and have a great patriotic 4th!
[quoted image]

Looks like a dead cat bounce to me. Macro is still screwed on the petrol dollar.

#16990 47 days ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

Looks like a dead cat bounce to me. Macro is still screwed on the petrol dollar.

Well Energy is now 5% of the S&P and 9% of the earnings value.

Cheap valuations, high dividends, massive FCF, and clarity of what earnings will be, like auto and home insurance, prescriptions, etc.

Oil was over $100 per barrel from 2010-2014. After 10 years of underinvestment around the world we now have a structural supply issue that isn’t going away anytime soon.

Take advantage of it. JP Morgan and others “pounding the table” on Energy

Love me some Apple and Microsoft too. Don’t need to own all 500 stocks of the S&P which is down 20% ytd, while the Aggregate Bond index is down over 10% ytd. Guaranteed loser. Wow.

There is a point on that declining inflation curve that intersects with Fed future rate hikes where policy will reverse and so will growth stocks. That’s the trick, when?

#16991 46 days ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Well Energy is now 5% of the S&P and 9% of the earnings value.
Cheap valuations, high dividends, massive FCF, and clarity of what earnings will be, like auto and home insurance, prescriptions, etc.
Oil was over $100 per barrel from 2010-2014. After 10 years of underinvestment around the world we now have a structural supply issue that isn’t going away anytime soon.
Take advantage of it. JP Morgan and others “pounding the table” on Energy
Love me some Apple and Microsoft too. Don’t need to own all 500 stocks of the S&P which is down 20% ytd, while the Aggregate Bond index is down over 10% ytd. Guaranteed loser. Wow.
There is a point on that declining inflation curve that intersects with Fed future rate hikes where policy will reverse and so will growth stocks. That’s the trick, when?

All correct. Oil can actually stay well over $100 much longer than people think because this time governments have a lot more restrictions on new oil development and oil companies /lenders less willing to finance new production. This pullback on energy is a great entry point.

Timing is e everything on growth. No hurry to get in yet that's for sure.

#16992 44 days ago

Blood bath today, no where to hide!

#16993 44 days ago

Com'on down!!!!

Let's see what people say at DOW 20k, only 12K more down from that point.

#16994 44 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

Blood bath today, no where to hide!

Nowhere? A lot of my watchlist is up 10% off the days lows. Not sure why, but growth tech surged.

#16995 44 days ago
Quoted from loneacer:

Nowhere? A lot of my watchlist is up 10% off the days lows. Not sure why, but growth tech surged.

Ya, tech turned later in the morning

Could lead the market back up ... maybe

#16996 44 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

Ya, tech turned later in the morning
Could lead the market back up ... maybe

Hmm...yeah, it sure looked like a pivot to me too...but let's see, we still have a lot of bad stuff in the pipe. I say get ready to jump into big tech soon.

#16997 44 days ago

Note the profitability and FCF at the different levels of price per barrel.

And FANG just increased their Div to 75% of FCF from 50%.

What you also note about their last quarter report is that FANG was barely profitable in 2018 and 2019, yet stock traded in area it’s at today.

Then the Div went from $.60 in Q4 2021 to $3.05 in Q1 2022. With the increase? This qtr should come in around $3.80 per share.

I would wait until Biden comes back empty handed from his Saudi trip to see where things are at. Could dip again. Macron already told him at the G7 they weren’t likely to provide any meaningful help.

Oh, and telling gas stations to lower the price is just downright comical.

Good thing about that chart? They do the math for you. Right there.

DVN looks similar. Very JUICY

1EC4D984-8397-4EB6-B591-003311B2355F (resized).jpeg

#16998 44 days ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Hmm...yeah, it sure looked like a pivot to me too...but let's see, we still have a lot of bad stuff in the pipe. I say get ready to jump into big tech soon.

Amazon earnings could be key

#16999 42 days ago
Quoted from kool1:

Amazon earnings could be key

Yeah, I noticed the option activity, they're bullish. I'm not ready to jump back in yet. I think the earning's reset and a housing deflation will take us down another couple of pegs.

#17000 42 days ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Yeah, I noticed the option activity, they're bullish. I'm not ready to jump back in yet. I think the earning's reset and a housing deflation will take us down another couple of pegs.

No new market lows still. I think we are holding for now. Bounce coming if you want to sell anything.

Big commodity drops are going to help inflation in the months ahead.

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