They are all full of shit. Wall Street is one big legal Ponzi scam. (right behind SS). Its not investing, its trading. Buy, hold and pray.

Anyway, I pulled all my money out of stocks 2 years ago and bought commercial real-estate all with good debt.

Get out now while you can. Its going to get worse this year.

And read or listen to: 'Rich Dad Poor Dad' > Unfair Advantage (all his books are great!)

Wise move.. anyone I know that is rich (like stupid rich) its off real estate. Stock market is always a form of gambling and seeing which way the bullshit winds blow.

That being said next few years probably aren't great for real estate either. Most everyone I know in commercial is sitting it out and waiting to see what happens.

Have to be patient real estate is a long haul game so you dont get that dopamine hit of daily stock market excitement.

Crypto is falling off a cliff tonight, markets will probably have a rough start tomorrow

All depends on what state you are in. if you are in a state with growth, you should be fine.

With higher rates on the way, real estate is starting to correct quickly. Don't get too comfortable with the idea you can't lose.

All assets have been pumped up by low rates for a decade++, not just stocks.

The beauty with real estate is that even in a correcting market you can still make money in a myriad of ways including rent, Airbnb, endless deductions, etc...

No different than a high quality dividend paying stock.

Stocks are way more flexible and liquid than real estate. Real estate is a liability too. I have both but RE is a pain in the ass compared to stocks lol. You can basically air bnb stocks with options selling covered calls etc. you should have both stocks and real estate but stocks are so easy compared to grinding real estate.

Also, with Real Estate you always have the real estate taxes and upkeep.

This all of this!

Vix is up to 32

Closer!

I like real estate too but ya - it's got lots of issues also.

LE pinball machines is where it's really at!

Well, the recent gloomy CFO poll puts the odds of recession better than 50/50. I guess the hope of a soft landing is now fading. If they're right we're in for more pain for at least the next 12 months. Inflation needs to brought down and Ukraine war needs to wind down...I won't be looking for any progress till those 2 things happen.

PS: Watch the headlines for early signs, layoffs and consumer spending cutbacks

Waiting for the next tik tok trend. Everyone do your part to curb inflation! Burn your money. Literally. Only commies won't burn their money!

Com'on DOW sub 30K....... let's get this party started!!!

Gotta retest the lows from 2009.... in everything. Then people will finally understand the last decade was all fantasy..... just like the roaring 20's.

We need layoffs and reduction in customer spending.

I think recession is inevitable unfortunately. This inflation issue is global and has not been caused the traditional way.

War in Ukraine is not going away (high and higher oil prices) and supply chain is so screwed up by China shutdowns and labor shortages, it's hard to imagine a quick fix for these issues.

Friendly reminder on how the fed works while you decide your next market moves.

Fed has finally started unrolling all the crap they put on the balance sheet. That is going to unwind the bubbles they have caused in the first place.

Isn't the fact that companies are STILL complaininga bout not being able to find workers, and saying we need layoffs a bit contrary? While it's a bit unbalanced depending on the field, it's across the board.

I’d be curious to know what the breakdown is for help wanted by industry. Every McDonald’s has a big window sign saying what they are paying for new employees. The sit down place I went to for dinner last night had a sign saying they were hiring line cooks. Is there a shortage of engineers, nurses, warehouse workers, landscapers, as well? I think it’s pretty heavily weighted towards food services as to where the shortages are. I know they aren’t alone, but seems to be a pretty large portion of the “now hiring” list.

Around here there is definitely a shortage of engineers, nurses, bus drivers, and garbage truck drivers.

Also food delivery (pizza man, etc) but that has been true for a year now. Oh, and post office has had help wanted signs for drivers, sorters, and front staff for awhile now.

Based on my personal experience with the lack of returned phone calls or outright passes on quotes, I would say siding/roofers are short too.

Doctors are perennially in short supply, so nothing really new there.

Man, cramer couldnt smell a recession if it sat on his face and wiggled.

Well... in the government contracting world there is a severe shortage of qualified workers. There was a huge wave of retirements at the start of COVID, and to compound to that the shift to remote work has led people to leave this industry in droves. I have six figure positions that I can't fill.

I still can’t get daycare so I have had to pass on several good engineering job offers, one of which was gov related.

By government contracting, do you mean private sector but working for the gov? Like defense contractors? I work for a contractor and we have merged a few times over the last few decades. Right before covid we had a huge pool of pension age (55!) people retire because “the number” was so good. It had been getting really good for a few years and people from that plan were retiring in droves. I started a little over 2 years after they phased out the pension, but replaced that with an additional boost to 401k.

Long story short, we were on a hiring freeze from 09-12 and then stable til maybe 2017 and then this group started retiring like crazy and we were only filling 50-75% of those empty positions. Now we have hundreds of job postings but I have no feel for how challenging those are to fill right now.

upcoming recession will do a lot towards solving the labor issues

That’s why I tell my son not to get too smug about how easy it is to find unskilled work right now. When he gets tired of a job, he just quits, and he finds a new one in a few weeks. When I was a young man, I would never quit without having another job lined up and ready to go.

I know the dentistry business around here has been a revolving door.

I think this trend toward remote work, and trying to get your job remote is about the dumbest thing ever. I'd love to work from home, but if I could... do you know how many other people would be able to do my job? I think a lot of this migration out of the office is going to come back to bite people in the ass over the next few years and alot of jobs are going to be going overseas due to it. I have purposefully chosen a line of work that cannot be outsourced and will stay in positions like this until I am ready to retire.

50/50?

We are already in a recession and the Fed has been slow to act.

At this point it's how bad is it going to get.

I don't know when the bottom is. I've gone from contributing the ammount I was once a month six months ago when the market was great to once a week now. I'm losing my butt, but it will turn around eventually.

I see retirements and early retirements all over the place. People saying they are done with the BS after being off for COVID or out of the office.

Recession and market downturn will definitely fix the imbalance to some degree. If your retirement funds shrink quickly - Walmart will have a greeting job for you!

There is a HUGE shortage in nurses nationwide, (there has always been a nursing shortage) but it's worse now than ever before. 2yrs of working during a pandemic with dwindling support, increased workload, and increased abuse by patients has caused many nurses to cut back on hours, step away from the bedside, or leave the profession altogether.

As someone who has bene trying to hire for the last few months I can tell you that people don't want to work.

The people who do want to work want too much money and feel entitled because there is the perception that "lots of jobs" are out there.

The coming shitstorm is going to wreck some serious havoc when reality sets in.

I feel like there's a supply and demand lesson here.

Not to mention the people who ARE working but are so incompetent and awful they are wreaking havoc on businesses. I see the decline in quality of goods and services everywhere.

Last night I went to see Top Gun at the movies. The whole lobby of the theater was trashed. The concessions people took 10 minutes per person ordering. The movie was supposed to start at 6:25. The movie screen was blank until 7:10. Just nothing. Likely because some moron just forgot to hit start button on the projector.

I agree a shit storm is coming. It’s really depressing.

I look forward to all these people who asked for crazy money circling back later to ask if I can still hire them so I can tell them to fuck off.

Great movie tho, finally something fun to see in the theaters!

I want to work but recognize I would probably make a shitty employee right now.

Ex: in the springtime we were getting notifications from school every few days saying the bus route is canceled for that day. Anyone using the bus then had to scramble to get kids to and from school.

Staffing shortages meant that before and after school drop off times were shortened too so folks would have been 30-45 minutes late to work and have to leave work 2 hrs early to pick up kids.

What work would find that acceptable?

Again, that’s just for the elementary school. Daycare has years long waitlist. At this rate my youngest will be in kindergarten before her number comes up for daycare. So problem solved I guess.

I can second this. The level of entitlement is something almost unrecognizable these days. Eventually the free money will run out, people will have to pay their rent, they'll have to pay their bills, and then they'll have to work.

I live in small town America and in talking with local business owners here, especially food service, the labor issue is crippling. Most of our restaurants, even the big chain fast food (the 3'ish we have) ones are having an impossible time finding help. Why? Because too many people spent too much time listening to people convincing them their labor is worth more than it actually is, by a lot. $15/hr to work fast food? According to my local Sonic GM that's no longer enough anymore but it's the most they can pay and break even and they still can't find help. Result, they only have about 20% of the staff they should have so it's drive through only and very limited hours. This isn't unique to my local Sonic, same thing with all restaurants around here. To be clear, there's no shortage of available labor, just a shortage of those who actually want to work. But boy do they have their hands out...

Jeff

Not sure what industry you're in but this isn't the case for the healthcare industry. Hospital execs. on a nationwide average have seen a 30% increase in their pay in the last two years....this isn't the case for the average hospital workers like RNs,CNAs, RTs, phlebotomists, ect. Pay has been relatively stagnant for most hospital staff. Due to reasons I mentioned above, and many other reasons I didn't mention staffing levels throughout hospitals are at dangerously low levels. There is a shortage of qualified workers and the pay being offered isn't enough to entice enough skilled workers due to the stress/increased workload. I've worked as an ICU nurse for over a decade and I am about ready to leave the profession and start a different career after these last two years. I've seen more death in the last two years than my entire career combined. There is only some much trauma you can obsorb as a healthcare worker before it seriously starts to take a toll on you, and many of us have passed our limit.

"No one wants to work" really means that no one wants to work for what you're willing to pay. And if you can't pay enough to entice people to work for you, then your business shouldn't exist.

That being said, way too much "stimulus" (free money) was pumped into the economy, including PPP loans for businesses. Didn't hear them complaining about that.

Selfish and entitled workers passing up jobs that don't pay enough to cover food, housing, healthcare, and transportation will be the end of this country as we know it!

Sonic doesn't pay it's employees well enough to justify the cost of their food. The General Manager lied to you if he said that's the most they can afford to pay people when you compare their wages and prices to other employers.

Our local burger chain starts at $19 an hour, offers health insurance, child care and college scholarships and the burgers cost less than Sonic. Dick's Burgers is well-staffed and a well-oiled machine that's fast and efficient, with no slackers. Businesses need to adjust and stop thinking workers will come around to their low wages and be dedicated hard working employees when they aren't willing to make the financial and training commitment to them. If they pay well, train them well and manage them well, they won't have problems.

Dick's Burgers pay and benefits: https://www.ddir.com/employment/

Virtual Work is a done deal in the IT/Engineerinf sector. If my employer could hire someone in India to do what I do, they would have done it already. I’ve been working remote since 2017. COVID helped companies realize that people are even more productive working from home, and less likely to look for other jobs. Eventually they’ll be able to downsize their office towers.

I kicked off a series of design meetings last week for a new project. I drove to the office to lead the meetings, and just a few people showed up live. After struggling with my shitty laptop display for a few days, I moved back my home office and led the meetings from my 32” monitor. Those 100% virtual meetings went WAY better. No weird echoes from people in the room together. Nobody showing up late because of traffic.

Total bullshit... the free money years have made everyone think money grows on trees and the next bailout is right around the corner.

I'm trying to hire at what historically would be higher than average pay and offering hybrid work for those who are too big a pussy to leave their house.

There are no more bailouts and other bullshit coming... nothing but recession and struggle.

"I'm too good for this job" wont work when you run out of food and cant pay rent in 2023.

I am way more productive at home. Way more enthusiastic as well. My 20 minute each way commute isn’t bad, but when it’s 10 seconds each way, that’s even better. My breakfast and lunch options are way better and fresher at home, costs less, and I can toaster oven stuff like pizza and it comes out warm and crispy, not melted edges and cold center and soggy like in the microwave.

I have friends that work in similar fields and one place sent people home when they were forced to shut down the office (as non-essential) and brought them back full time ASAP. Then the next spike they sent them home again, and pulled them back as soon as they could. Now they can be remote 2 times a week which is pretty dumb.

I have friends on my hockey team with various educations and the ones that are remote or have the skill set to move to a company openly offering remote positions are chipper, while those that can’t aren’t gloomy or anything, just have no reason for demeanor to have changed. It’s good for some, but others won’t like it and that’s fine. I’m glad more positions are seeing that it’s possible to offer remote. Makes a job more attractive to me.

Sorry for the wall of text. Market’s super red today, so figure no point discussing what shade of red.

Look what I said 73 days ago

I dunno, do YOU want to deal with entitled assholes that don't want to follow rules, make death threats, might shoot you for getting your order wrong...and that's not even mentioning dealing with COVID the last few years. You might be frustrated, but your statements here show that you just don't get it. It's been proven, this country is more than half assholes who only care about themselves. I don't know you or what you do, so it's not a comment on 'you', but it's the mentality. While I have seen first hand yeah, people are f'ng lazy....at the same time, who'd want to deal with the public these days? It's pretty clear the rich people are really disconnected from reality and showing the selfish side.

I've been working remote for over 10 years now. I can't imagine not doing it. Just making the commute every other month or so is annoying. It disrupts the flow, adds extra hours, gets the blood pressure up, and I get less work done. In todays climate I'd probably retire and sell everything before going back to dealing with people in person all the time.

I guess it will be interesting(?) to see how all of this plays out. I think the market is going to continue to fall this year. There are no solutions because everyone is blaming everyone else. I think there's going to be a big reset and lots of companies are no longer going to exist (and unfortunately probably bought up by the bigger companies).