I like how when my div reinvestments occur it's always on a big up day. not.

That's why I turn off the reinvestments. It goes to my cash balance and I can choose when to buy more.

I have high hopes for UPST. I stated a few months back I wanted 1000 shares and I still do. Glad I didn't have them this week though. Rising rates are a tough market for them. The big problem was they spooked investors with something like 600 million worth of loans on their balance sheet. Loans they were supposed to be reselling. They claim 90+% of them are R&D loans for new products they are teaching their AI, which I trust is true. If their technology is good, then they should still be making money on the loans they are holding, but that's not their business model.

My understanding is if you do it automatically you don't get taxed on it.

On a taxable brokerage account qualified dividends are taxed at 0%,15% or 20% depending upon your filing status and income. DRIP just does the repurchase automatically so you don’t forget / can’t reinvest for some reason.

On a similar note my last two 401k purchases occurred on days the market had a rally.

Here's an interesting article on Fund/ETF portfolio diversification allocation that research shows outperforms the SP500... It is more suited for long term plays like in a 401K

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-investment-strategy-is-an-extremely-effective-way-to-beat-the-s-p-500-11645065209

Here was my takeaway of funds/ETFs that seem to match:

SP500 SPY/VOO: 10%
Large-cap Value Stocks VTV: 10%
Small-cap blend stocks NAESX/IJR: 10%
Small-cap value VISVX/AVUV: 10%
REIT VGSIX/VNQ: 10%

International large-cap blend AVDE/VEA: 10%
international large-cap value EFV/VYMI: 10%
international small-cap blend FNDC/VSS: 10%
international small-cap value AVDV/DLS: 10%

Emerging Markets VEIEX/AVEM/VWO: 10%

Thanks for sharing the information. I utilize the NC state government 401k which is pretty limited in choices. Ill update this post later (added ) with that they are but here is my allocation. Initially it was using a target date setup (included bonds and a money market fund) but i switched it to manual.

New investment allocation (index versions with lower expense ratio, no idea why they offer 2 versions?)
50% Large Cap - S&P 500
25% Small/Mid Cap - Russell 2000
15% International (currently at around 30%)
10% REIT

I’m fortunate to get a state pension but also have started making my taxable brokerage 50% dividend ETF’s 75% SCHD / 25% DGRO . I plan to build those two up over the next 7-8 years and the other 50% would be for stocks. Obviously i make tweak %’s depending on how lazy i get.
Prud401k (resized).png

This is the big worry. That and a lot of inflation has not been caused in the usual domestic way but by supply issues (global pandemic interruptions, shipping and conflict) .

If you're worried just remember, the market doesn't rise in a straight unmitigated line..this bear market was long overdue. For comparison the 2008 housing bubble crash lasted 17 months. The S&P dropped 56%....by the end of March, a mere 2 weeks after the lows it had stabilized and had a bull run where the market rose 21%...and the rest of losses came back and then some by the end of that 17 month bear market. Moral of the story is if you believe in long term growth, this too shall pass. Sit tight and buy in small increments.

Problems with global supply chains and changes in spending patterns due to COVID have pushed up inflation worldwide. However, since the first half of 2021, US inflation has increasingly outplaced inflation in other developed counties. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic's economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021.

In other words, much of it is self inflicted and will lead to a loss decade as pundits are now calling it.

So far yes - higher inflation in the U.S. is partly self inflicted. The COVID helicopter money drops kept shoppers shopping.

I think higher energy and commodity prices will keep inflation high. Retailer earnings show Walmart and Target have not even passed on a lot of cost increases to consumers yet.

I’m shocked that this government overreach ended up creating a bigger problem than it solved. Giving those in need sustenance is one thing. Everyone knew that it was excessive on one hand, but we enjoyed the sugar high at the time. To me the most egregious policy that wasn’t handouts to businesses was the $300/week extra from the feds for unemployment even if your normal unemployment was a tiny fraction of that.

Excess Money + Excess Free time + Reduced Output + Retail Investing via Robinhood, etc

It was a highly leveraged powderkeg. Surprised it didn't pop off worse, frankly. In hindsight, I still think I prefer the broad-base assistance approach to an alternative where more people fell through the cracks but I am a softy. We did not do an excellent job at this.

Most western countries did the same thing. It was excessive for sure. Something needed to be done but people were making more money not working during Covid than they did before the pandemic. There are other factors now though- China zero covid policy is insane and causing more supply chain issues. Surging oil / commodity prices now stem from underinvestment during the pandemic and before.

I suspect only a global recession will dampen this inflation.

Or war.

Looks we are on the way to another top 10 all time worst Dow days (points wise, not percentage).

Been saying the same thing.

Listened to earnings from Walmart, Lowes and Home Depot - strong consumer spending, but they are eating some of the increased costs for supply and shipping so hurting earnings. We think inflation is at x% but it is really more based on this info. Not good.

For all that hating on the handouts, you all completely gloss over where all that money ultimately ended up. Here's a hint...it's not sitting in some poor schmucks savings account or robinhood account. It did exactly what was intended, make people spend money. All it did was make the rich richer, and more whiny.

Was it handled correctly? Not at all, but be glad it wasn't worse, because how it should have ended was a bunch of bankrupt corporations and out of work ex employees, and foreclosures. At least this way, (and lack of workers), it won't hurt as badly - since they keep stating: 1. can't find workers. 2. don't want to pay those higher wages anyway. Am I happy with where we are? No. Am I worried about where we are headed? No. The reason being I'm not up to my eyeballs in debt, because for as bad as I am at picking stocks, I am great at personal finances and avoiding risk. This is pretty much how I expect things to go normally, and knew the outcome as soon as the stimulus started.

Looks like it's not over:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/senate-last-opportunity-to-send-billions-to-help-pandemic-hit-restaurants-184900504.html

They can’t help themselves can they.

When socialism is constantly bailing out capitalism, you never really had capitalism to begin with.

There is no pure capitalism anywhere. Don't know there every was.

Yup. More inflation to come is what that means. Your cart at Walmart is going higher!

Did some research tonight on the total cost of the 3 Covid relief bills passed over the past 2 years by 2 different administrations. Nearly $5 trillion!

We are now paying for these bills with rapid inflation. How the funds were distributed and where all of the money went is another story. What a mess and both parties are to blame.

Cares Act, March 25th 2020: $2 trillion

Consolidated Appropriations Act, December 21st 2020: $900 billion

American Rescue Plan, March 11th 2021: $1.9 trillion

Add to that our aid to Ukraine

401k n da dumpsta

I see what you did here

.

Liking the big down this morning in the futures - look for a bounce later in the day

The chit-chat on different forums about being oversold has started.....Tech is trending higher, RBLX, AMZN, ARKK, AMD, MSFT all up....need to see the inflation to trend lower for it to hold. If it doesn't the bear trap continues.

My guess is way to early - will there be a small rally - probably, but overall downtrend, the fed has just started it's destruction.

I agree.

I shifted all my tech to high quality low P/E for now.

Still overweight energy.

Hard to tell which way is up anymore. Fibonacci bottom should be spy 340-360 though. I will prob push cash all in or half in when that hits.

End of the week sets the tone for next week - unless we get a turn, looking like the same direction

When SPY hits 330 and qqq hits 250, then, maybe we are close to bottom.
(Not a professional here, just guessing and watching to much Cramer)
Watching Disney to hit 90 or less in same philosophy.
Bought some Ford, just seems to cheap not to throw a thousand at it. Adding, I really want the F150 lighting and guessing most of America will too.

Be careful with Cramer - as much as he thinks he is right, he is usually wrong. Bottom line is we have never been here with so much govt debt and huge balance sheet and super high inflation. As one that lost about 85% during the dot com bust, tread carefully

Yup.

Cramer can't know everything and is often wrong. I value his opinion though, but like with anyone take it all with a grain of salt.

assumption: a lot of the prices here are driven up by folks with investments that did well the past 4-5 years (especially 2)

When/how do you think equities will start to apply downward price pressure on the pin market? I know that I lost at least one CoolMachineYOLOs worth of disposable savings and I'm thinking harder about purchases these days.

Really wishing I had the time during the day to play the peaks and valleys. There's some money to be made in quick trades.

And LOTS of money to be lost

It's very simple: The market needs to retest the lows of 2009 and see if they break or if they hold.

That will show if it's going to be a recession, or a depression. Both are completely viable and long overdue.

You can't play if you don't win!

Yeesh. What a frightening concept.

The Great Recession kneecapped the middle class as I had known it, but didn’t completely break it. I don’t think the current downturn will do that either… but it may be the harbinger of what eventually will.

Housing is the true curtain call. 95% of middle class wealth is represented there. LLC’s and corporations are buying them up or outright BTR (build to rent)… effectively creating McNeighborhoods like so many Walmarts and conglomerates have transformed the retail landscape. Look out.

Eventually, the only option may be to “rent the American Dream”. Which would make capitalism a pretty hard sell if people can’t accumulate much capital, eh?

And that will really bring out the pitchforks… in which we all lose.

The health of a nation is directly measurable by the size and wealth of its middle class.

I think it has already begun. Stuff isn't immediately sale pending when someone asks sky high prices.

That won't happen....last time the iceberg beneath the ocean was derivatives, they amplified the losses a 100 fold if not more. It was also uniquely dangerous because it involved one of the safest instruments in the market, mortgage backed securities. This time it's just regular olé economic jitters: inflation, tightening and supply chain interruption, also add war and geopolitical risk to that mix and you got yourself a recipe for panic. Once the inflation shows even the smallest sign of abiding the market will explode to the upside. There are signs of inflation peaking already.....hang tight, we're rounding the bend.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/01/investing/stocks-week-ahead/index.html

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/inflation-hit-peak-highs-in-march

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/05/investing-club-were-not-panicking-cramer-sees-inflation-peaking-looks-for-stock-buys.html

Man, I sure hope so. Staying put and waiting for the tide to roll in again.

I'm the in the other camp. It's a big drop off the roller coaster after going so high.

It's going to get a lot worse. Actually, it's probably time for a good ol' depression. From pinball prices, it's obvious that people have too much $ on hand.

I’m with you. Mild recession, bouncy 8-12 months. Nothing catastrophic. Another 10% down worst case.

I’m looking forward To DICK’S (DKS) the most. It got slaughtered this past week.

3E63A62B-F146-4D42-8781-5E68E2569210 (resized).jpeg

I agree. It's probably coming.

Bear market rally coming soon also, good time to dump a few big losers.