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Quoted from kvan99:Damn, AMZN down 10%....weird, I think the market is misinterpreting the earnings, they lost $3.8 billion, but they took a hit due to the ownership of Rivian stock, which is down $7.6 billion, that's with higher labor and supply chain issues. Most of the revenue is now coming from AWS and that growth was stellar, up 36% yoy. I'm confused.
Wasn't so much the quarter as it was the guidance which was bad. Shrinking margins, a slowing economy and a premium p/e to retail is a bad mix. I can see this stock drifting lower.
Better to be in MSFT, GOOG and AAPL if you want to have some tech.
Quoted from kool1:Wasn't so much the quarter as it was the guidance which was bad. Shrinking margins, a slowing economy and a premium p/e to retail is a bad mix. I can see this stock drifting lower.
Better to be in MSFT, GOOG and AAPL if you want to have some tech.
This is the lowest PE for Amazon ever, it was 80 during the Covid crash and PE 240 five years ago. Margins aren’t comparable to MSFT or Apple because of the super low margin on retail sales. I think AWS is a world unto itself. AWS alone would probably be a trillion dollar company.
Quoted from rai:This is the lowest PE for Amazon ever, it was 80 during the Covid crash and PE 240 five years ago. Margins aren’t comparable to MSFT or Apple because of the super low margin on retail sales. I think AWS is a world unto itself. AWS alone would probably be a trillion dollar company.
Yup all true. Tech is out of favor though and until it comes back AMZN may drift regardless.
I'd still rather own MSFT and GOOG for now.
Hudsonville, MI
Quoted from BMore-Pinball:If you can hold it long term, yes
You think it still has room to go even lower? Seems like it hit resistance at $82.07
Quoted from KornFreak28:You think it still has room to go even lower? Seems like it hit resistance at $82.07
yes, anything is possible in this market
Hmm, procrastinating got me again... Grabbed an I-bond today, it goes in on the next business day...May second.. Do'h lol
Quoted from RTR:I sold NVDA May $195 puts a couple weeks ago thinking it would never get there. Looks like I will be the new owner of those shares soon. Ugh. You are right about not buying anything right now.
Closed the NVDA puts out yesterday rather than own another 35x forward earnings stock in this environment. Sold some CRM too. Just can't imagine their earnings report will be good enough to drive them up. They are at a 40 forward PE even beaten down to $180/share.
Quoted from ZenTron:I agree about being done with individual stocks but i do have a $2500 buy for an AMZN stock. I’ve been dca’ing down into QQQM and QQQJ. Good luck all
Picked up a share of AMZN under $2500 today, it may go down more but I'm content and plan to keep it at least a year.
My portfolio is down 60% since January - I have big AMZN and NFLX positions. Oh well, I retire in 15 years, I can wait.
Quoted from ZenTron:Picked up a share of AMZN under $2500 today, it may go down more but I'm content and plan to keep it at least a year.
I think AMZN will get rerated from tech to retail. If that happens there is definitely more downside as it still trades at a significant premium to WMT and HD.
Quoted from jwilson:My portfolio is down 60% since January - I have big AMZN and NFLX positions. Oh well, I retire in 15 years, I can wait.
Iceman is the only one who is continuing to get filthy rich off the market in these trying times. Don't you know?
Quoted from kool1:I think AMZN will get rerated from tech to retail. If that happens there is definitely more downside as it still trades at a significant premium to WMT and HD.
That's crazy, Amazon is a technology company, they are designing CPU chips for crying out loud, AWS accounts for 62% of the companies profits. I saw a valuation where AWS alone is worth $1Trillion (80% of the entire company).
Quoted from rai:That's crazy, Amazon is a technology company, they are designing CPU chips for crying out loud, AWS accounts for 62% of the companies profits.
You are right but the vast majority of revenue comes from online sales.
They should split the two side of this company up but I doubt that will happen anytime soon, especially with the market as it is.
Happy Saturday, I’m not sure if you’ve seen this link but i love the site and these type of visuals:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-big-tech-makes-their-billions-2022/
A quick glance its easy to see MSFT has the most rev streams, META has the least and how AAPL is so dependent upon hardware (supply chain).
Quoted from kool1:You are right but the vast majority of revenue comes from online sales.
They should split the two side of this company up but I doubt that will happen anytime soon, especially with the market as it is.
Need to use corporatespeak:
"Unlock the true value of our corporate assets for our shareholders"....
Quoted from ZenTron:Happy Saturday, I’m not sure if you’ve seen this link but i love the site and these type of visuals:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-big-tech-makes-their-billions-2022/
A quick glance its easy to see MSFT has the most rev streams, META has the least and how AAPL is so dependent upon hardware (supply chain).
Love Visual Capitalist... so many colorful (and damn sobering) charts!
One thing stands out: America rocks! Not perfect, but rich and free and always improving the recipe.
Quoted from NicoVolta:Love Visual Capitalist... so many colorful (and damn sobering) charts!
One thing stands out: America rocks! Not perfect, but rich and free and always improving the recipe.
Free? We are not even allowed to play online Poker!
Anyone know some safe-ish places to put money that aren’t loser deals with inflation as it is?
This seems like a decent spot, 10k limit but it’s something that’s at least somewhere around inflation
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
Quoted from Kneissl:Anyone know some safe-ish places to put money that aren’t loser deals with inflation as it is?
This seems like a decent spot, 10k limit but it’s something that’s at least somewhere around inflation
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
Yup, read back a few pages.... Grabbed one Friday, grabbing another Monday.
Quoted from Kneissl:Anyone know some safe-ish places to put money that aren’t loser deals with inflation as it is?
This seems like a decent spot, 10k limit but it’s something that’s at least somewhere around inflation
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
10k per SS#. So two parents and two kids gives you a $40k investment
Quoted from Mattyk:10k per SS#. So two parents and two kids gives you a $40k investment
Hmm, forgot the kid angle...Looks like I'll grab two more Monday
Quoted from Irishbastard:Hmm, forgot the kid angle...Looks like I'll grab two more Monday
Two more of what?
Quoted from DropGems:The 10k limit on i bonds sucks I must say. Was ready to go all in lol.
For people buying now, when do we find out the new interest rate? Is it 6 months from now?
Quoted from Mattyk:10k per SS#. So two parents and two kids gives you a $40k investment
Not sure I understand what you meant I’m sorry. Seems pretty obvious that if it’s 10K per person it would total 40K investment?
Quoted from Kneissl:Anyone know some safe-ish places to put money that aren’t loser deals with inflation as it is?
This seems like a decent spot, 10k limit but it’s something that’s at least somewhere around inflation
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
No safety right now. Stick it in money market until equity market flattens out.
Bonds are not the safe place yet. You could probably lock in something safe in the second half.
Quoted from KornFreak28:Not sure I understand what you meant I’m sorry. Seems pretty obvious that if it’s 10K per person it would total 40K investment?
I meant exactly that
Surahammar
Quoted from kool1:Wasn't so much the quarter as it was the guidance which was bad. Shrinking margins, a slowing economy and a premium p/e to retail is a bad mix. I can see this stock drifting lower.
Better to be in MSFT, GOOG and AAPL if you want to have some tech.
Yes, however, if you zoom out, they spent a lot of money during the pandemic, they invested heavily in warehousing and manpower to meet demand. Amazon warehouses are very expensive...full of robots and wired to the gills. Not to mention supply chain issues and high labor costs, but they still managed to put up some good numbers. I think they've obviously used this quarter to temper or reset future expectations. CEO said that for the first time they will turn focus to costs (I know, crazy to hear that) instead of other metrics. Translation = they will be laying ppl off after Prime Day (just my guess).
From WAPO:
CEO Andy Jassy referred to the war and the pandemic as bringing “unusual growth and challenges” in a statement. He also said the company, which has been expanding its warehouses significantly in the past two years, will now focus on boosting productivity and “cost efficiencies.”
Amazon executives said the company expanded its warehouses and workers there so much that they now have too much space and are overstaffed, something the company will work to straighten out. CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with media that the company had to make decisions about warehouse space more than a year in advance and wouldn’t necessarily change what it did.
Still, as online pandemic shopping growth is waning, the company has ended up with too much. OIsavsky insisted demand “remains strong” and customer numbers look good.
Quoted from kvan99:Yes, however, if you zoom out, they spent a lot of money during the pandemic, they invested heavily in warehousing and manpower to meet demand. Amazon warehouses are very expensive...full of robots and wired to the gills. Not to mention supply chain issues and high labor costs, but they still managed to put up some good numbers. I think they've obviously used this quarter to temper or reset future expectations. CEO said that for the first time they will turn focus to costs (I know, crazy to hear that) instead of other metrics. Translation = they will be laying ppl off after Prime Day (just my guess).
From WAPO:
CEO Andy Jassy referred to the war and the pandemic as bringing “unusual growth and challenges” in a statement. He also said the company, which has been expanding its warehouses significantly in the past two years, will now focus on boosting productivity and “cost efficiencies.”
Amazon executives said the company expanded its warehouses and workers there so much that they now have too much space and are overstaffed, something the company will work to straighten out. CFO Brian Olsavsky said on a call with media that the company had to make decisions about warehouse space more than a year in advance and wouldn’t necessarily change what it did.
Still, as online pandemic shopping growth is waning, the company has ended up with too much. OIsavsky insisted demand “remains strong” and customer numbers look good.
All true - they will grow into that space and too be fair, it's tough to anticipate a pandemic no one had ever seen before.
More worrisome is global inflation and for Amazon, product price pressures, labor costs and delivery costs. I am out of the stock for now, too many variables. Google is cheaper and more predictable in my opinion so I shifted more there for now.
The thing is Amazon is in a better place than most other retailers simply due to their size and use case. People still continue to flock to Amazon. Sure they saw tons of growth the last 2 years like every one else, but like everyone else they will see the downsizing after as well..but they are still in one of the best positions comparatively (in that area).
Quoted from Zablon:The thing is Amazon is in a better place than most other retailers simply due to their size and use case. People still continue to flock to Amazon. Sure they saw tons of growth the last 2 years like every one else, but like everyone else they will see the downsizing after as well..but they are still in one of the best positions comparatively (in that area).
It's not size, it's valuation. As a retail stock it's extremely expensive. It's not a just a retail stock but that premium valuation is still likely to come down.
Amazon forward P/E 49
Walmart forward P/E 23
Target forward P/E 16
Quoted from Zablon:May-Oct I Bonds @ 9.62%
How do you sign up as a couple?
We file jointly forever now.
Then how do I sign my 16 year old for one as a dependent? I'm not seeing it on website. I really don't want him to fill out individual income tax next year.
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:How do you sign up as a couple?
We file jointly forever now.
Then how do I sign my 16 year old for one as a dependent? I'm not seeing it on website. I really don't want him to fill out individual income tax next year.
You create a separate account for each person, then you can 'gift' to them. You don't necessarily need to put the gift in their account until you plan to redeem them and it will still get the interest.
You only pay taxes on them at time of redemption.
Quoted from Zablon:May-Oct I Bonds @ 9.62%
So was it better that I procrastinated or no difference?
Quoted from jp1985:So was it better that I procrastinated or no difference?
Well…the rate went up…but now you have an unknown rate for your last 6 months of lockup (that rate will be declared in nov).
Quoted from Zablon:The thing is Amazon is in a better place than most other retailers simply due to their size and use case. People still continue to flock to Amazon. Sure they saw tons of growth the last 2 years like every one else, but like everyone else they will see the downsizing after as well..but they are still in one of the best positions comparatively (in that area).
Yeah, also I don't think the cloud business is even taken into consideration in terms of overall value. Let's see what the split does for the stock.
Quoted from kvan99:Yeah, also I don't think the cloud business is even taken into consideration in terms of overall value. Let's see what the split does for the stock.
Split will definitely give better access to the stock to smaller retail buyers
Quoted from jorge5240:I buy about 5k of stock for my kids every year. 2.5 on their birthday and 2.5 at Christmas. Long term, like 20 years long term. I have been buying Disney and Apple.
Looking for some other super long term winners.
Thanks,
Mike
I do the same for my kids in Roth accounts . Got them Costco a few years ago as i think it will do very well long term .
Quoted from kool1:Split will definitely give better access to the stock to smaller retail buyers
When is that coming?
Quoted from KornFreak28:When is that coming?
20-for-1 stock split on or around June 3
Quoted from kool1:20-for-1 stock split on or around June 3
What I can't find is the registration date.
Ie, the last day to buy in to get split.
So. Is that June 3rd?
THANKS for the help.
Quoted from Ericpinballfan:What I can't find is the registration date.
Ie, the last day to buy in to get split.
So. Is that June 3rd?
THANKS for the help.
I also need info on this. Want to buy Amazon but not sure if it’s even beneficial to wait until the split?
What registration date? Do you need to register in order to buy in on the split?
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