The ENERGY market has been “wonderfully efficient”.

DVN up another 7.86% today.

Wonder why? My deleted commentary was spot on of course

“Only when the tide goes out do we discover who’s been swimming naked”. Buffett

I’m not “mystified” as to why but it appears the DVN CEO is?

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I'm looking at " Intel " stock. Oil and gas should also do well. Am I missing anything on Intel? I don't see any screaming deals in the stock market anymore!

Some people want certain things to succeed, and some people hate to see things succeed. 8 months to go!

And some people never learn

Ain't that the truth. Anyway, I'm super excited to see what are leadership has in store for our 401ks tomorrow. Should be swell! Please share your insights many want to learn.

Given the current atmosphere, was it a good idea to shut down domestic evergy production? Want to make sure I have the full picture.

If you think that 3% Russian oil was anything to worry about, you are far from the full picture.

If you are worried about gas prices, get in on all that sweet energy stock. Get that money back. There's no denying when they are making billions for doing nothing different than they did a few years ago.

Gee, if I were a DVN shareholder, I guess I would be asking the CEO why he isn't producing oil at the company's max capacity while oil is at such a high price? Why is he waiting on anyone at all to ask him to do it? Seems like CEO 101...

I don't think oil production has been shut down by any stretch. Heck, the DVN CEO says he could make more if someone would just ask.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/01/27/oil-gas-leasing-biden-climate/

"But one year after announcing a halt to any new federal oil and gas leasing, Biden has outpaced Donald Trump in issuing drilling permits on public lands. After setting a record for the largest offshore lease sale last year in the Gulf of Mexico, the Interior Department plans to auction off oil and gas drilling rights on more than 200,000 acres across Western states by the end of March, followed by 1 million acres in the Cook Inlet, off the coast of Alaska."

With Russian import restrictions, I think it's time I buy stock in Tito's.

It's because they are trying to blame it on not letting them expand drilling areas. Rather than just pump more where they already have permission. As if they need to wait for permission to produce more oil. It's always excuses with oil companies. Anything to keep the prices up. Most of if not the only reason oil was so low for so long was because ofthe intentional price fix diving that was happening overseas. We reaped the rewards from that for a long time.

They have millions of acres of undeveloped leases in effect that haven't even been drilled yet. And great success with the ones they are pumping.

Adding leases with proven reserves is a cheap and tricky way to fluff that balance sheet without ever having to drill. They def aren't running out of places to pump.

OXY has strong moves up yesterday and today. I think it may go to mid 50’s in the near term.

Jeezus where is the bottom for PayPal? I bought after big dip and it just keeps plummeting.

Truth and facts don't matter....feelings and inklings do.

Bought Oxy and Murphy at the absolute pandemic bottom in march 2020 (total lucky timing). Sold Oxy $50 calls yesterday just because I have too much oil exposure but Oxy and mur looking good!

Departed GRN and took profits. 58% ain't bad. Ukraine invasion seems to have spooked carbon offsets a bit...?

The safety of BRKB has weathered the choppy markets well since Thanksgiving. 12% not too shabby.

Malls and casinos MAC and LVS just noodling around as usual. Waiting for summer to see if any momentum finally breaks.

Pinside pick CRM... -30% yeesh but I like the company so just sitting on it.

As for personal pick ZVIA? Woof. -54% since purchase. Was having a nice run until 2021 Q4 results. Haha... whatever. Still don't care. I drink it, I own it.

They are all looking great!

The world is realizing that windmills, outhouses and wood burning stoves ain’t gonna get it done.

They have become much more disciplined with regulations and “green energy” push.

If “green energy” was so good why doesn’t it work so good ? Many years and decades of evolution and innovation. Not overnight

Why would they not drill baby drill if they can make even more $$$ at $100 per barrel? Puzzled by that one huh?

Marketwatch's list, published today, of faltering stocks to consider before they rebound. I'm already in on Apple and Pfizer:

T. Rowe Price, down 26% this year
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. TROW is among the top 10 publicly traded money managers in the world as measured by size. It’s a $33 billion powerhouse with about $1.5 trillion in assets under management at the end of last year, and has a powerful brand backed by nearly 90 years of operation. Volatility has taken its toll on TROW stock in the short term, but this financial firm is a “dividend aristocrat” with 35 straight years of consecutive dividend increases and a long-term commitment to shareholders. After a strong fourth-quarter report that showed an otherwise thriving business, there’s reason to have faith TROW can weather this downturn and snap back.

Home Depot, -23%
The largest U.S. home-improvement chain, Home Depot Inc. HD operates 2,300 retail stores across North America — 300 more than competitor Lowe’s Cos. LOW. With a red-hot housing market, there is continued demand for many HD products and services, and the realities of building materials mean that the chain is far less likely to suffer any digital disruption from online competitors shipping lumber or wallboard via mail. Home Depot just boosted its dividend to $1.90 per quarter, up more than 15% from $1.65 in 2021, and more than double the 89 cents per share it was paying as recently as 2017. Shares may have taken a hit in 2022, but this is a stock with staying power.

Tesla, -23%
Though some investors may still think of Tesla Inc. TSLA as an electric-car start-up, that is just not the case anymore. As proof, consider that in 2021 TSLA sold more units in the U.S. than BMW. Also consider it is one of the top seven U.S. stocks as measured by market capitalization, that it’s projecting a staggering 50% revenue growth rate in fiscal 2022 and that its powerful brand has made it the poster child for the EV megatrend worldwide. It’s hard to bet against the growth behind electric vehicle markets, so unless you think competitors are going to instantly scale up and eat into market share anytime soon, this may be a chance to buy TSLA stock on a pullback.

Starbucks, -21%
Dominant coffee chain Starbucks Corp. SBUX remains one of the strongest consumer discretionary plays out there, with its $29 billion in annual revenue in 2021 significantly topping $23 billion and change recorded by McDonald’s Corp. MCD last year. Furthermore, while chains like Mickey D’s are struggling to grow SBUX is still expanding with projected 13% revenue expansion in fiscal 2022 and another 9% projected in fiscal 2023. Throw in a 2.1% dividend that is only about 25% of total profits and a powerful brand with staying power, and it’s hard to bet against this coffee king in the long term.

Pfizer, -19%
For many months now, investors have known that earnings comparisons will get harder for Covid-19 vaccine producer Pfizer Inc. PFE and that sentiment may suffer, thanks to the old “buy the rumor, sell the news” mentality. But it’s worth remembering that Pfizer is so much more than a pandemic play. This is an iconic drugmaker born way back in 1849, with blockbuster cardiovascular treatment Eliquis on the market and an anti-inflammatory drug similar to AbbVie’s ABBV Humira expected to get approval as early as the fourth quarter. And in addition to its internal R&D, it made a big acquisition last year with the $6.7 billion purchase of Arena Pharmaceuticals to keep its product pipeline flowing. Sure, PFE stock may have become a crowded trade as Wall Street began to look beyond Covid. But that doesn’t mean it’s going away anytime soon.

Nike, -17%
The biggest brand in sporting goods and athletic apparel on the planet, Nike Inc. NKE is a $215 billion powerhouse that isn’t going to be disrupted by any short-term volatility in the market. Yes, inflation may cause some pressure on margins or consumer confidence. But not only will Nike remain the go-to name in its category, it continues to move beyond the old-school wholesale model and take its products direct to consumers. Case in point, in fiscal 2021 direct sales rose to about 39% of sales — meaning it’s cutting out the middle man to capture more margins. Between a great brand and this increasingly direct sales model, it’s hard to imagine Nike staying on its heels for long.

Apple, -8%
As the largest U.S. corporation by market value at $2.65 trillion, it’s perhaps unsurprising to see Apple Inc. AAPL down roughly the same as the rest of the stock market year-to-date. After all, as of this writing AAPL stock represents about 7% of the entire S&P 500 and a whopping 12% of the Nasdaq 100, since both of these indexes weight components by size. But let’s not confuse this structural issue of index fund dominance with some kind of big-picture problem for Apple. With about $62 billion in cash on hand and a $100 billion more in annual net operating cash flow, this tech stock has a balance sheet that is unrivaled by any other corporation on the planet — and is certain to withstand whatever short-term volatility we see in 2022.

Microsoft, -12%
Second only to Apple, Microsoft Corp. MSFT is no slouch either, with a market cap of “only” $2.2 trillion and the same structural challenge of being overweighted in index funds as a result. Microsoft is also cash-rich, with cash and investments worth $130 billion on top of net operating cash flow of $77 billion last year. Granted, it just dipped into these resources to acquire video game studio Activision Blizzard ATVI for $69 billion. But that will only increase its dominance in this area, while continuing to deliver big in other areas like its traditional enterprise software operations as well as its fast-growing cloud-computing arm, Azure. Microsoft has deep pockets, and a bright future regardless of the day-to-day headlines on Wall Street.

Amazon, -8%
With persistent upward trends in online spending and continued dominance for Amazon.com Inc. AMZN as the go-to merchant for most consumers, it’s hard to imagine any disruption in this tech giant’s business model. Furthermore, Amazon Web Services remains just as popular as the traditional Amazon e-commerce model with roughly a third of global cloud infrastructure spend going to AMZN. Furthermore, it’s telling that new CEO Andy Jassy who took the top job in July was previously running AWS — a sign that this fast-growing, higher-margin arm of the business is what will lead Amazon into the future. That’s a strategy investors can take to the bank, and one that’s likely to pay off no matter what the news cycle brings.

Alphabet, -7%
When it comes to online advertising, there’s simply no better option for most companies than Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOG. And with more dollars coming into digital ad spend each year even as this tech giant continues its dominance, it is pretty much a sure thing that Google is going to keep raking in the cash regardless of macroeconomic trends. Specifically, Alphabet is on track to log a 17% increase in revenue this fiscal year of more than $300 billion, with another 15% growth in fiscal 2023. Particularly with Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. FB in the doghouse, both with users and regulators alike, Alphabet is the biggest game in town for digital ad dollars — and will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future.

You pretty much answered your own question. It takes time. If you don't start you never get anywhere. You also never get anywhere (in changing things) if the only thing you care about is money and it doesn't fit your agenda. I do agree the 'overhype' is kind of tiresome in regards to how green green really is. Currently Iowa is 57% by wind. Not too shabby, but yes it comes with its own issues eventually. I really don't think the 'killing the birds' is as high on their list as the anti wind people pretend it is. It's all about the money.

Isn’t it strange how Texas produces more wind energy than anybody? 3 times what Iowa and Oklahoma produce and 5 times what California does.

I answered my own point because that was the point. It’s not a flip of the switch yet we need ALL forms of energy to run the world. Now we see what happens when cutting down nuclear, Germany, and oil to even these lesser levels. Poor planning worldwide I’d say

I’d say Tesla certainly “got started”. Now others are following. CVX and XOM spend more money on renewables and clean energy initiatives than anyone in the world.

Some want to demonize energy producers. Try living without it. They can jump up and down and stomp their feet all they want.

Carbon capture? When it becomes more economical as Chevron CEO just said

Speaking of GRN is on sale today, down another 16%

CRM's earnings are slated for tomorrow IIRC...I don't own it but if it beats it will shoot up to mid 240. This is a good buy..GL! With the Ukraine crisis I like cybersecurity stocks. I think we'll see a blowback over the sanctions soon.

Not strange at all, it's science. The Texas Panhandle is one of the windiest regions in the United States. As Westerly winds flow over the Rocky Mountains, low pressure forms to the East of the mountains in the high plains. This very persistent low pressure is what leads to the strong average wind speeds from the Southwest and West. And wind energy companies are going to build where there is the most consistent wind to maximize profits.

Got it. “Follow the science”. And where they are allowed to build, especially in tax favored states like Texas

They have to acquire leases first. Many states don’t want the eyesore in their backyards

The state controls the ENERGY, they can regulate it any way they want, just like expanding OIL leases in Texas where California restricts drilling for OIL. Not subject to the Commerce clause

It started with then Gov Bush and the deregulation of the electricity industry here. It boomed under Rick Perry, pure economics

When I drive to Lubbock where my daughters went to and go to school we go right through Sweetwater, one of the largest farms in the country

Apple
Msft

Good, but not good enough.

I lucked out and sold all my VOO as trading opened last Monday right when the shit hit the fan. After it dropped 20 I bought it back.

Get ready to lighten up on Oil soon. If you hear about a negotiated cease fire lighten up on energy and get back into reopening stocks and beaten down stocks. Oil is still going to stay around 100 but I doubt it will stay at these levels if an Ukraine off-ramp becomes apparent.

Well Fuck! I should have stayed in X longer. I was right about it. It was a steal at $20 but pretty good at $23. I didn't follow my system and so I missed out on a 25%+ gain.

Always set rules and follow them.

Owned for about a year and for most of that time thought I got in pretty good at $210. Now a year later - it's at $205. I was glad they had good enough earnings and guidance to trade sideways. Sideways is the new up for growth rn, lol.

I'm loaded up, but if it goes below 200 will consider more or maybe some long calls. CRM has great sticky revenue, superb products, zero debt, good cash flow, and room to run. I think they are a great long term hold.

Wow. The delusion is high here and everywhere!

When is that “lighten up” coming so I can make sure I take action? Not. They are moving ahead killing innocent civilians, taking down nuclear facilities and aren’t stopping until they take over BUT let’s make sure we put “climate change” first.

Without this Russia invasion OIL was headed to $120 per barrel this summer regardless

The Chevron CEO said at $75 they will
Buy back 25% of the company over the next 5 yrs.

ENERGY has been and IS a “no brainer” for the foreseeable future.

In fact, it’s now a recognized “national security interest” across the world and too late

Maybe we can cut a deal with Iran again? So they can use the profits to build nuclear weapons along with Russia and China

Well...did you check with Tom Lee before you wrote that? Oil is at 123, how much upside is there vs beaten down tech that's down 50%? Also the Iran deal is already done...wait 24-48 hours, +1.2 mill bpd will have an effect. So will the German announcement about their nuclear plant decommissioning being put off. What else maybe Venezuela's sanctions not being enforced...we'll see.

PS: I'm up 55% on Exxon so I can afford to move that money elsewhere.
BTW, Palantir is looking like a buy at 10 bucks,.I might pick up some

SPR= Strategic Petroleum Reserve.....which by the way Biden Admin said is going to be released.
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Dude, stop with the politics. You keep doing it and it just makes alot of work for the mods and annoys everyone else.

XOM to at least $90.00

Agree, definitely not a good idea. US needs to return to energy independence. Shutting down energy gives Russia additional leverage, and it doesn’t even even seem like there is appetite to reopen (which isn’t a positive sign). Energy exclusions from the Russian sanctions? Really?

I mean at least consider reopening for the time being, then explore greener energy in the future (when we aren’t knocking at the doors of world war).

Here’s my point, if we are going green ok that’s fine but it’s not today or tomorrow. Let us drill and supply oil for US or the rest of the world while it’s still needed. It doesn’t need to be that we shut down oil/gas production to force feed green energy. If we don’t supply oil then OPEC and Russia will supply the oil.

I was in California and they had a lot of windmills that looks cool but often they weren’t spinning due to calm winds. Nuclear has its own issues, basically nothing is great at everything as long as we need power we’re going to need something at the moment it’s fossil fuels along with a mixture of renewable and nuclear power.

Agree, and we end up buying oil from countries that are less environmentally sensitive than we are

Make more money. Perhaps flip your view a bit. You use everyone else's oil first, so that eventually you are hopefully the last one with it. No one cares about your short term woes in the grand scheme of things.

Why do you guys hate success?

Don’t need OIL to trade higher. I hope it doesn’t. That’s just “silly”. And I hope and pray for a cease fire and less loss of life.

Let me help you understand the ENERGY trade.

With FANG for example, since there is a “variable dividend” based on profitability, and they are profitable above $30, the CEO projected an 11% annual yield when OIL was $20 lower. Add the 7% buyback yield and the 8% covered call return I’ll make twice this year and I’ll be ok with that with OIL in the $70-80 range

Same story for DVN etc

OIL trading at $70-$85 per barrel will generate massive profits for a long time to come.

I currently have about 70% in ENERGY, partly because of the approx 100% gains in DVN and FANG

So you BUY ENERGY whether or not OIL goes to $150 or $75.

Your welcome

Oh and the “hedges” that cut back profitability in 2021 are now off.

Oh and ENERGY has now become a national security interest for countries around the world. Can’t live in green energy fantasy land anymore. We have decades to go for that progress

And the idea of working a deal with IRAN to take sanctions off their OIL so they can fund their nuclear bomb progress is quite stupid but it won’t make much difference production wise. 1.5 billion barrels AFTER 6-9 months of re-working wells and thus barely a ripple. That chart drastically overstates an “Iran deal”. In this environment, enriching brutal regimes intent on destruction doesn’t make much sense

Strategic reserves? Literally nothing

The idea here is to make $$$. And nobody was shedding any tears for the Oil industry the many times they were on the verge of bankruptcy. And so many smaller companies went out of business during the Covid hit of 2020

And that’s why I check with Tom Lee everyday since you are being a smart ass

Thx Tom!

UPST, ABNB, ZS, SE, MELI, TTD are a few of names on my radar to pick up on dips over the next few months for 2nd half rally.

The destruction and carnage is way overdone in much of growth but the money is flowing to bonds, a big mistake, and VALUE that pays a dividend. BBY good example yesterday

Thinking we might get a “buy the hike rally” on March 15th

JP Morgan note today. “Oil could go to $185 per barrel”

PXD Pioneer CEO says the US couldn’t replace Russian Oil this year

Beware the "Ides of March"

Hey it’s March Madness time too Eric! Best time of the year

Plus you have TPF going on!

That same note says this (below) you need read and not go by the headlines only..

The bank maintained its price forecast, which calls for Brent to average $110 a barrel in the second quarter, $100 in in the third quarter and $90 in the fourth quarter. Without a return of Iranian barrels to the market, the bank expects oil prices to average $115 in the second quarter, $105 in the third quarter and $95 by the fourth quarter.

Read more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/jpmorgan-says-185-oil-in-view-if-russian-supply-hit-persists

Also, Russian oil is not yet sanctioned. Third, Iran deal is done....you'll hear about shortly. Fourth, Canadian oil sands output rise will be coming back online if prices persist above 100, Fifth, the rig count has gone up big...so more drilling on the way. All of these will create a lot of headwind for price rise. Thank you and come again!

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Rig-Count-See-Massive-Climb-On-Higher-Oil-Prices.html
PS: one last thing, I didn't say sell oil....I said to lighten up on it, I have 60% of one portfolio in energy, so I can easily take 25% off that weight once the upward march stalls and reinvest elsewhere.

Hey man, you do you but then you must know that they can’t ramp up any of it in the short term to meet the rising DEMAND tailwind.

And that’s the other part of the equation you are ignoring, the “DEMAND” is RISING and will continue to do so throughout the rest of summer and worldwide re-opening.

The Energy market has major “structural” issues that aren’t fixable with a flip of a switch.

Also happy to hear you are part of the Iran negotiating team and that “the deal” is already done. It will be meaningless short term other than the terrible headlines. Lol

ENERGY is now weaponized and so important to be ENERGY INDEPENDENT

Finally, I’ll say it again since you didn’t seem to comprehend it the first time around, $70-$80 a barrel for the next few years will work just fine for me. DIV YIELD + BUYBACK YIELD + OPTION YIELD

No need to “lighten up” as far as I’m concerned because I don’t need OIL to go UP from here. I’m counting on it selling back a bit.

Got it now? Good.

My plan is to hold my oil stocks at least through August

I’d say that’s a smart plan, and then see where things are at, collecting a big DIV, while the VALUE of the stocks get better and cheaper by the day.

That was my original plan, but we might end up in a multi year commodity cycle for the good. Take a look at a 5 yr chart

Btw, TOM LEE has been on the same drumbeat with big cap tech, Apple, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN and ENERGY. Thx Tom!

When he moves off ENERGY that’s when I’ll consider it . Why, because he’s a lot smarter than I am and he’s been spot on since Jan 2021. Maybe not as smart as Kvan though?

My plan is to buy 50, 50 gallon barrels, fill them with gasoline, and sell it to my neighbors in the summer months. YOLO