Oh, cool...I'm at Art Basel right now, I'll message you in a bit.

started a position on PENN this morning

LCID

Finally I see green in the portfolio....Actually everything I'm holding is up today, so all the stuff that was sold off to Omicron is back on

Inflation and interest rate hike sensitive stocks are not having a good day.,,I don't see a good outcome for them going forward, because rate hikes are guaranteed in the future, so this action on them will continue, if you need to be in tech buy QQQ or FAAMG till this thing shakes out, but even those names might come back down to earth in the new year.

Not a bad day so far.

Geez… already doubled my money on GRN and still on a tear. Where is it all headed?

Of course it could all evaporate in a milllisecond if emissions policies change course or some legal loophole-thing arises. Who knows. But can’t deny the general rebound today. Even poor old Zevia has been bouncing back… their PBC director just doubled their personal stake. Guess that is a decent vote of confidence.

Peter Lynch has a dissenting opinion on passive investing.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3778391-peter-lynch-says-passive-investors-are-missing-the-boat

For those of you thinking of getting in BABA

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/news/3777828-macquarie-says-alibaba-is-building-a-strong-moat-around-its-business

Disclosure I'm not in BABA

JD is worth a look also, but I still think china stocks are risky

PYPL was a good buy @ 180

I'm not saying he's wrong but didn't Buffett win a bet that the S&P could beat several hedge funds

"Buffett's ultimately successful contention was that, including fees, costs and expenses, an S&P 500 index fund would outperform a hand-picked portfolio of hedge funds over 10 years. The bet pit two basic investing philosophies against each other: passive and active investing. "

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffetts-bet-hedge-funds-year-eight-brka-brkb.asp

I think Peter Lynch is being vague or picking a winner after it happens. Like I could say AAPL would beat the pants off of the S&P500 (it has) but that might not always be true.

I would like to see a true study that shows active funds beating index funds, not just a few active funds here and there becasue how can you pick the best active funds?

I don't guess Peter Lynch still runs Fidelity Magellan but here is the bio (Fidelity® Magellan® Fund is a diversified domestic equity strategy with a large-cap growth orientation and that seeks capital appreciation. The fund's mandate is highly flexible, giving us the ability to invest in domestic and foreign issuers across all market capitalizations and styles.), well S&P500 beat the pants off Magellan over the prior 5 years (108% return vs 70% return).

I think that bet was many years ago. I can’t speak for others, but my managed assets are beating the pants of the indexes right now. I must be with a good money guy.

Correct, but you are looking at one year or a few years, we don't know what'll happen in the future. I mean unless there is proof that active beats passive (I have not seen any studies say so) it's just a random data point not a fact. Also what is the risk of an active fund like if they pick all Meme stocks or all Tesla of course they will look like they are beating an index fund.

Here is a retrospective study

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-evidence-that-passive-fund-management-beats-active-2019-09-12

Only 23% of all active funds topped the average of their passive rivals over the 10-year period ended June 2019.

and I would bet that may go back and forth depending on what 10 year period you are looking at and what stocks are held during those times. It's all about timing, even if you can't time it.

Did you beat the QQQ last year “and” this year? Would have had to be 50% up last year and at 30% so far this year.

I beat it last year by 15% for my whole account, but this year? Short.

Tip of the cap to anyone who can get years in a row beating the Q. Spy is one thing but the Q is a bitch to beat, for me at least.

I find it amusing when some prognosticate about "Peak Oil" or the demise of the oil Market in general.
Big oil is the lifeblood of the Military/Industrial complex. When oil is up the equities Market is up, when it is down, likewise.
While Green initiatives are touted everywhere the World scrambles for more fossil fuels to heat their home, fuel their cars cheaply, produce fertilizer.
Demand for petroleum derivatives like Specialty Chemicals has never been higher. Despite an aversion to plastics all we can manage is a ban on drinking straws.
Energy stocks are King. Will remain King for the foreseeable future.

(Disclaimer. I am not anti-Green). I hate plastic waste, would like to see steam powered and Hydrogen Cell cars and more efficient solar. But anyone that thinks Big Oil is going quietly is in a pipe dream.)

Yes and so far. Year is still going so we shall see.

I am not looking at the future. Retrospectively, the last few years, my active investments are beating the benchmarks as well as my passive investments. That is all that matters.

Sweet!

100%

Energy stocks are not a great long term investment, imo. Buy them when they are crushed by a pandemic or financial crisis and then get rid of them when they come back up.

EBA9C883-F604-4762-A12E-763B4C6F01E1 (resized).jpeg

Yes! They used to be a safe dividend play but they're not growth stocks. I have Exxon and Schlumberger, energy is a good inflation play. Although I have reduced them by about 30% since last year, also both have been upgraded as of late so I'm waiting for a good earnings call to reduce further...they will shoot up as inflation persists.

Speaking of which, the Fed will most likely say something soon to rattle the market, because now that he's reelected he feels the heat to do something about the inflation issue, so look for more hawkish instead of his more dovish statements soon. This will affect Tech (FAAMG excluded) negatively but will be good for energy, financials, REITs and probably healthcare stocks.

Apple seems to be the only stock I'm holding immune to whatever is going on right now.

With more covid lockdowns in the way, the shipping delays have not been solved, plus inflation and the fed, I decided to exit a few of my larger holdings, including MAC.

Two things to do before the new year: 1) review my individual stocks - are these companies making money? 2) Reduce my 401k contribution to pay off my newborn baby debt - medical bills are expensive.

Inflation is coming!

Microsoft is doing well also.

It's been here all year, where have you been hiding?

Just wait until you see the new price of diapers and formula.

I buy Stoopid crazy expensive organic food, toothpaste, deodorant, etc so I didn't really notice except gas prices which can be explained by the new government administration. Booze seems relatively cheap still. Also, I try to avoid cheap Chinese shit.

A friend of mine has been trading gold stocks for decades, many of them penny stocks. He’s done real well with them too. I’ve taken a stab at a few of them over the years and managed to make more than I lost.

Last Friday he learned that a stock he owns - his average purchase price is around $0.30 per share - has new owners and is buying everyone out for $23 a share. He owns 15,000 shares.

Nice and tidy $340k profit! Wow.

Not sure this is true. He nixed a proposed pipeline, but has been issuing drilling permits at a pretty rapid pace, angering the environmental portion of his base.

https://news.yahoo.com/why-biden-is-approving-public-lands-oil-drilling-permits-faster-than-trump-did-and-angering-environmentalists-215140188.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACxkRjtFwcyj5ZVawKltYNq-rZCg4BKPPHwsXxkitCfxTWF66rbMnM2q7rtpy64xjap51HJQPIw27wfC_sCKXaK7iV7LvJ2-GdQbsSQy_6sZuF6qQwV6v8MQiCWasyP8W0cjXSFyR1gugcjE4mTN5oq2VwiHdc_jLBGov7XgX7

Excerpt from link:

"Biden administration has issued more permits for oil and gas drilling on public land per month than the Trump administration did in its first three years, according to a new analysis of federal data."

And yet the price of gas has gone up more than $1.50 since he took office.

Tell me you know little about gas prices without telling me you know little about gas prices...or even coherent of world surroundings. Some of you must have been on heavy drugs in 2020.

Tough comp when you look at early/mid pandemic prices vs current boom time/4.2% unemployment. I would think pre-pandemic to be the better comp. Keeping in mind oil prices have other forces at work too and the jump is not just happening in the USA.

BBA5EEE9-7823-4291-A916-1882D2821D54 (resized).jpeg

I buy drug stocks, sure. do well with them! thank you.

And that's the problem isn't it? Misunderstandings, as if the administration short term actions can move the needle in the energy market. Even if he issues permits, releases the strategic reserves it would amount to a temporary blip in the energy market. OPEC, geopolitics of the ME, inflation and even monetary policy have more impact than the president. This inflation is the result of Fed action...it's natural as it was foreseeable. These inflationary flares are the result of 6T of money being dumped in the economy...which by the way was started by the last guy, and rightfully so, it's proper action when the economy is dealt a shock....you inject stimulus to keep engine going till you come out the other side. Not a blame game for this guy or that...people need to learn how things work, it helps with the misunderstandings.

Thoughts on Nvidia dip?

Most of the market is dipping pretty badly.

I could be wrong but things are heading lower till we get some clarity on the Fed tapering and if they see inflation cooling. You can buy for a short term trade, but if you do buy for the longer term just buy in small blocks, maybe 1/4 and then see where things are and then buy another quarter...etc. Rumor is Powell is going to announce he's speeding up the tapering. That's why the sell off in tech...I'm sure we'll get a pop after they calm down and digest it, but that's just my opinion. I bought some DIS and MSFT

Thanks Kvan. Your general short posts are pretty good considering the complex issues they go over.

To share I like Analyst and former Engineer Lyn Alden’s articles. She is a highly followed author on Seeking Alpha and explains “how we got to where we are now” on many topics in a non narrative, unbiased, facts based way. Here is her recent article on oil.

https://www.lynalden.com/december-2021-newsletter/

To add to your list of reasons gas is higher she mentions oil diggers are no longer borrowing like drunken sailors to dig more. Now they tend to now avoid debt and use profits to expand and are also buying back shares instead.

Since everyone talks about “the Fed”. She also has a very good article on the history of the Fed and why the US is where it is at today and possible challenges ahead. In general it is not just “the Fed”, but she says most people just say the reasons for everything that happens economically are as an easy way of explaining. I found it an interesting long nerdy read.

https://www.lynalden.com/qe-and-inequality/

Not pushing anything and all FYI. Take care

Wow, she knows what she's talking about, yes I agree with what you said, I also like her historical take about interest rates and overall market performance But I don't know, it's safer to be a little more of a skeptic for now. Past actions/performance have to be discounted because we are in somewhat extraordinary times, as long as we have the Covid variants, threat of stagflation, Russia's action in Ukraine, China's actions in regards to Taiwan looming on the horizon you have to take risks in small doses. Thanks for the post I saved her blog....I'll check in on her in the future.

I'm with you, kvan99! I've been getting some APPL and MSFT on the days when they get hit hard. Just for the short term to ride for the bounce back up. I got some MSFT today, too.

Nasdaq is taking a double hit, one for the interest rate the other for end of year tax loss sales. I think if you don't have any high multiple ARKK stuff you'll come out with little damage. Obviously, energy, healthcare, financials and industrials are where the value is now. If anyone thinks this economy or market is going to sink they're in for a rude awakening....as long as employment is at historic lows, money will be spent, money spent will float the market..now with that said there is a lot of froth, I don't think earnings next year will be as good as this year so the stockmarket might stall. Nucor, Boeing, BofA, Disney, Microsoft, Alphabet, will be ok I think either way.

Got any specific stocks worth doing a little research on?

Look at the end of the last post...I listed what the solid bets are going forward. But use caution, there is still risk. Buy in small lots over weeks or months.

I know it is anecdotal but I am thinking about picking up some MAC with my next IRA funding. This was pushed heavily on this sub at the start of COVID. Wish I'd held on to mine since then. Anyways, this past week I've had family visiting from rural Texas that wanted to go visit the local shopping malls here in the DC metro area. Of all of the malls we visited, there was exactly 1 with 100% occupancy, and it was a Maerich property. Not gonna retire rich from it, but the dividend on it looks pretty good and the price isn't back to the moon on it yet.

Lyn is one of my favorite people to read. Her articles are approachable and easily understood

Cool. I am glad other people here like her. I always walk away with a better understanding of each topic.

Today = blech

The market got spooked today because of the omicron news, it's spreading fast. Nevertheless, if you got cash I think these levels are buying opportunities for some of the high quality tech names.