Do yourself a favor and look up "index investing."
You and I and everyone else in this thread are irrelevant. It's not about brains or integrity or feelings or friendship or wisdom or knowledge.
It's all about STATISTICS.
For my entire adult lifetime, I have listened to people endlessly explain what stocks to pick and their reasoning behind it. It always sounds reasonable. Sell this stock and buy that stock because of this and that. Oil prices are up, agricultural prices are down, blah blah blah.
But STATISTICALLY, it is a FACT that if you buy a low-cost S&P 500 index fund from Vanguard and just let your money sit there through thick and thin, your returns will outperform 85% of individual investors and 75% of professionally managed portfolios.
The 500 index is a brisk performer. And it doesn't make human errors. And it's extremely low cost.
Here's a great example:
Back in 2019 went to my tax accountant to do get my taxes done, and I asked the accountant, who is also a financial advisor with college degrees in finance and accounting, what he thought of the stock market.
He's a chatty guy and he told me that he advised all of his clients to get out of the market for the year, the market is overheated, blah blah blah.
For a minute I got sucked in and made plans to pull everything out. But then I said to myself, "NOPE. NOPE. NOPE. DO YOU BELIEVE IN STATISTICS OR DON'T YOU?"
I did the STATISTICAL thing and left my money in my Vanguard S&P 500 index fund and I made a big fat pile of money in 2019.
"The S&P 500 Price index returned 30.43% in 2019. Using a better calculation including dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 returned 33.07%." My accountant advised his customers to miss out on one of the most incredible years in the history of the stock market.
This was a human error. My accountant got nervous and tried to TIME THE MARKET. Trying to time the market is statistically an error.
When it comes to people's stock advice in threads like this, it's ENDLESS and EVERYONE thinks that he has great magical wisdom.
Just look at this thread. 300+ pages of people talking about gas prices and agriculture and apple and tesla like they have a crystal ball. It never ends.
Back in 2008 or so, the stock market tanked. Every website you can name had 1000s and 1000s of people advising that the end of the world was nigh and YOU SHOULD TAKE YOUR MONEY OUT OF THE MARKET AND BUY GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD.
GOLD IS YOUR SAVIOR IN THIS TIME OF DOOMSDAY! It all made perfect sense. Buy gold at $1900 an ounce so you can survive the coming zombie apocalypse.
I ignored this wise, sage, magical advice and did what I always do: put my money into my good old S&P 500 index fund. For the next ten years, my money doubled and tripled and quadrupled while gold flatlined.
Here's the best part:
Every single time that I tell people that I'm an index investor, and why, they sort of sneer at me and say, "Well, if you don't have any risk tolerance and you're OK with mediocrity, then I guess that's fine for you."
Out of the 1000 people who have said that to me, my returns in the stock market beat 850 of them. If that's "mediocrity", then I'll gladly take it.
AND, when I ask people what their annualized returns are, they refuse to tell me. Because 85% of them can't beat the index.
As I approach retirement and my risk tolerance changes, I'll use one of the vanguard target retirement index funds that has stocks and bond indexes. And I'll continue to beat 85% of my peer group.
Math is your friend. What I outlined above is LOGICALLY SOUND but BORING. People don't want to make 8% annualized returns. They want to make 6% while they are chasing 500%. That's why people reject index investing.
One more thing: gambling is addictive to the human mind. RANDOM rewards are IRRESISTABLE to the human brain. You know how they get the killer whales to jump way out of the water? They vary the size of the bait. Usually the bait is a tiny fish. But every so often, it's a HUGE fish. And the killer whales get addicted to the RANDOM reward. People make a big hit in the market and they'll spend the rest of their life chasing down that moment of glory. Because of how mammal brains are wired.