Perhaps it's just me but it seems like there's an influx of doom and gloom apocalypse talk. As a newer investor it's hard to tell whether the market has always felt this divorced from reality, or whether that's a more recent phenomenon. Reading from some of the older investors in this thread the takeway I've had is that you shouldn't try to predict the waves so much as ride along with them.

My individual stock picks are hopeful for more market exuberance moving forward (PLTR APPL BABA C3.AI) but I can't help but think that when average folks like myself are taking an interest in the market that it must be a sign that the rug is going to get pulled out from under us.

Please do your own due diligence and my observations are worth the price you pay for it - nothing.

Between now and beginning of November this is a fairly typical cyclical correction. Figure barring anything horrible in the holiday season - which is entirely possible, beginning of November should be the annual upswing into March. People tend to make their own self-fulfilling prophecies and when I start to think I am losing my marbles I either try to be emotionless or if I am getting nervous go to a cash position.

Between now and Nov 1 I expect the indices (indexes ?) to bounce up and down like a pinball going up the playing field and hitting pop bumpers and slings.

Good luck, everyone.

Don't feed...err, I mean hydrate the trolls.

Nah, people love liquid birthday cake. I certainly drank my share over the years. But maybe hedge that bet with some Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Sanofi too.

Thats cute,you must be so proud

That always comes with people talking about why we should invest in gold.

So far you,or any of the other so-called financial experts have explained why we shouldn't.
I have given my reasons for investing in land,a clean water source, dependable vehicles, firearms and ammunition, food storage/stockpile, and gold and silver.
To make sure my Granddaughters and their Mom are safe and taken care of.
Other than some idiot insinuating I'm a troll...nothing.
It's not doom and gloom if you are prepared.
It's clear why not everyone will make it. They don't care, don't think about it, look down on it.
I feel sorry for these Folks if it gets rough.

Lol.

To me, investing in gold isn't doom and gloom (though I do see that associated with it a lot), it's more that if you look at the past 50 years, gold has crushed stocks in 2 of the decades, and floundered horribly in the others.

Basically, if I told you there was an asset class that would perform at 4x or greater when stocks are flat or awful for a long period of time, isn't it worth considering it a little?

If you just look at the 2000 to 2010 area:

market was actually down that decade, so if you were 100% in stocks, you lost money
if you were 95% stocks and 5% gold, you actually made 4x on that 5% for a 20% overall portfolio gain

It's has an asymmetric return profile in that when it's good, it's really good. Same reason people should have a small allocation of crypto, possibility of asymmetric return.

I am more proud of this one.

EDA2F5D8-74FD-497F-A6D7-874F89440CCE (resized).jpeg

Thanks, just bought a pallet of magnum condoms.

Do you invest in gold etfs? Or actually hold physical gold? What pct do you hold? 5%?

You like the big boys huh? They’ll keep you safe in the apocalypse, I guess. Steep price to pay though.

I think it's good you have a plan, at least you have one. Me? I live in the burbs in Phoenix. I'm screwed unless I can go mad max with the Challenger. Maybe that should be the plan!

A Girlfriend lived in Phoenix, told me everyone has a getaway cabin in Flagstaff. Something about escaping valley fever. So they stay in Flagstaff for the Summer and move back to Phoenix in the Winter.
Go to Flagstaff full time.

Good news! I won't return to this thread for 3 weeks. Have at it, signing out.

Too many snowflakes, if you know what I mean. If anything, I'd head back home to Wyoming..

I was like 5% to 10% gold and silver right after it crashed in March of 2020. Right now I'm like at around 1% maybe, own just small positions in a gold miner or two. Technically gold's chart has been broken for a while, so I've mostly stayed away from it for the past 6 to 12 months. I have a bigger position in crypto right now though, maybe 2% of my overall through the trusts and coinbase. I got lucky with AXS last week when it basically doubled, most of my crypto positions haven't really went anywhere in the past 6 months.

For gold, I was in the gold etfs and some miners. I don't hold any physical gold, but I do have physical silver through coin collecting.

Yes. Two many snowflakes.

Of course not, gold can be a important investment component for a diversified portfolio.
But to think once the hypothetical apocalypse comes, that people will be trading gold nuggets, is just absurd.

yup, the ones who blame others for their failures. Sound familiar?

Anyway...

How did your PINS research go. Oh wait, it didnt, so you came on here blaming others. Hard lesson to learn, isnt it!

I didn’t research pins. I’ve never even been on or used “pins”. I took the advice of an “expert” who no longer frequents this thread. A relatively small amount of money was lost. No big deal. After a few drinks, I decided it would be fun to post here about it in the hope that it might illicit a response from said expert. My post got some downvotes, which was devastating, no doubt. I’m taking it one day at a time.

In his defense, he recommended it initially when it was a lot lower
I made a nice % profit on it
He also usually recommends investments, not stocks to trade in the short term

Stay on target (topic) The pullback is running out of steam. The market is looking for direction here, it's as if the bulls and the bears are evenly split. The only short term risk is the debt ceiling....if we can hurdle that we'll be ok at least till the Fed meeting in Aspen in Nov, but even then Powell hasn't ever said anything negative to spook to market.

Oh, I'm not against investing in gold, other than the stock market and crypto both perform better. But I do think it's silly when people say they invest in it for if an apocalypse happens. Generally you don't want to base your investments around something that's very very unlikely to happen unless you are extremely wealthy and have the dollars to spare.

Those usually have an expiration date of about 2 years, better get busy!

I rode the PINS train thanks to a tip on this thread. Got in and got out after a nice 20% profit.

Feeling generous so here is an idea for you: ASML around $700. That is what I have my buys set for. Do your own diligence.

With the debt limit shutdown averted till Dec...you've got a green light to make money, (for a month or two anyway)...buy some big tech or reopening stocks for a swing trade.

Even with the debt ceiling delayed until December, isn't October traditionally pretty rocky for the Market?

Common misconception, because of a couple really bad Octobers.

The average monthly S&P500 stock market returns from 1980 to 2019 were:

January: +0.82%
February: +0.29%
March: +0.96%
April: +1.51%
May: +0.97%
June: +0.02%
July: +0.79%
August: -0.15%
September: -0.70%
October: +0.92%
November: +1.48%
December: +1.11%
Average: +0.67%

Nice, besides this is coming off of a nasty pullback...so naturally they have to put the money somewhere that's I said to do swing trade..short term some sectors will rally. Big tech, industrials, commodities, even financials. I bought MSFT, CLF and BABA...the last one is a doozy, I got stopped out twice and lost a few grand in BABA previously, I'm hoping the 3rd time is a charm.

I'm not touching BABA again, I feel like Chinese stocks are so vulnerable to the whims of China's political leaders right now.

Reason I pulled out of them in the 1st quarter
Sold BABA at $225 and didn't look back (bought it in 2019)
Fairly sure I made some comment in this thread about those stocks getting risky

At some point though the bottom gets put in and the shorts move on to the next target. Baba jumped 13 bucks yesterday, I have a 10% stop if it doesn't work out I'll wait till it clears 160. On other fronts, CZR and GM got big price upgrades. Nucore got a downgrade but Cramer went crazy calling it a bad call...I think he maybe right on this one, all the car companies rely on Nucore steel, not to mention all the upcoming infrastructure work.
Let's hope the job report is good but not too good or else the tapering may begin sooner.

Circling back to this as an example. It has expired worthless. The Hindenburg Omen is not a very accurate thing (approx 25% accurate, so less than a coin toss) and in my opinion should be tossed in the rubbish bin.

In the last day or so, Robert has been advocating against the debt limit increase. Not really all that bold to predict a massive collapse when you are out there lobbying for a policy that will guarantee a massive collapse.

After shamefully (and a bit hypocritically) dipping my toes back into that crank tank, I truly am done giving him even the time of day.

BROS getting the bump today! Glad I grabbed a little caffeine with that soda.

The reopening stocks seem to be working...Baba got some love too. Earnings are on the docket, I think we may see new highs in some of the reopening sectors (airlines, casinos, hotels) and industrials. Also if you want to make some easy money I bet Alphabet will blow out the numbers again. Have you seen the amount of adverts on YouTube..freaking out of control

The last week has been phenominal for mine. I'm up highest I've been.

Is there? Never seen an ad on Youtube. That's what adblock is for...

I picked up SNOW and BROS from reading this thread. So far so good!

pasted_image (resized).png

I have adblock and it doesn't work (at least for me) with Youtube because of the way they make it stream in the window before the clip you want to watch.

Phone or PC? I watch it on PC mainly. (BTW, I was kidding, I know the ads are bad on Youtube). However, I do mostly watch it on PC where adblock works as expected. Never an ad.

Inflation can work in your favor if you buy I-bonds from the US Treasury (treasurydirect.gov).

Max $10,000 purchase per person per calendar year.

Exempt from state income taxes.

Must hold for one year (or 11 months technically as below):

The fine print: “If you theoretically buy on October 31st, 2021 and sell on October 1st, 2022, you’ll earn a guaranteed ~3.87% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes.”

That’s a pretty good rate if you have some cash lying around for a year.

Since it factors in inflation and that portion of the rate hasn’t been calculated since May, wouldn’t it be best to wait a bit until the current inflation wave is better reflected in the rate? I think the rate adjusts on the first business day of November.

Edit: i suppose it doesn’t really matter too much in the long run since everyone gets the variable inflation rate and the fixed portion is still probably going to be 0%. Man do I dislike variable rate anything.

Do the posters that make suggestions of what to buy also come back and tell you when to sell?

Very, very likely will be zero due to how high the following six-month inflation rate is. Still, nearly 4% guaranteed free of state tax isn’t too shabby for an 11-month piggy bank.

When I posted here, yes! Search button is your friend... You will have to scroll through the search because there are a lot of times that I sold and highlighted that.

2021-10-14t10-13-40 (resized).png