(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #1451 31 days ago

    Views on gold?

    #1452 31 days ago

    A couple weeks ago I bought some April 20 RY $105 puts at $0.90 per share. Sold some of the $100 puts today for $0.89. Basically have the potential to make $5.00 on a $0.01 investment. Will see if I can sell the remaining $100 puts tomorrow for proceeds over my $0.90 initial cost.

    Gold will continue to do well with all the uncertainty in the market. Unless there is a major drop and then everything will be down.

    #1453 31 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Bought 1,000 shares of Cisco at 42.50
    I wish I waited 1 more day to sell the Amazon puts..

    Got to appreciate a guy that tells you what he did real time. I don’t care about stories of what was bought months ago. It’s easy to tell a “success story” months later, and forget the failures.

    #1454 31 days ago
    Quoted from ovfdfireman:

    Got to appreciate a guy that tells you what he did real time. I don’t care about stories of what was bought months ago. It’s easy to tell a “success story” months later, and forget the failures.

    My 4 $6 APR 17 calls for GME filled yesterday. Timing isn't really the best, but probably the only reason GME went down enough for me to fill. PS5 info is supposed to get announced tomorrow (Thursday). I think GME is not good long term without a big change in business model, but short term they have enough cash to buy themselves out at the current market cap.

    If it doesn't work for me it's literally $20 gone...

    #1455 31 days ago

    As one of the trumpeters of the buy, hold, buy and stay the course strategy...I will chime in that I have done nothing. Same as 2001 and 2007.

    Still sickening when you measure the one day decrease in six figures, I'm not enjoying this.

    #1456 31 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    I wouldn't be shorting the market here...it already had a massive selloff.

    Based upon what logic? What catalyst is there for going up? Only catalyst I could see would be a vaccine or treatment that is very effective.

    #1457 31 days ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Based upon what logic? What catalyst is there for going up? Only catalyst I could see would be a vaccine or treatment that is very effective.

    Based on the logic that we had an almost 2,000 point drop in 2 days.

    I felt things were overpriced last week, hence I sold calls. I wouldn’t dare sell calls right now.

    Catalyst for going up? Bonds are paying nothing right now and our unemployment rate is still 3.5%.

    That one idiot from Allianz said it’s different this time....whenever someone says that, you always do the opposite.

    #1458 31 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Based on the logic that we had an almost 2,000 point drop in 2 days.
    I felt things were overpriced last week, hence I sold calls. I wouldn’t dare sell calls right now.
    Catalyst for going up? Bonds are paying nothing right now and out unemployment rate is still 3.5%.
    That one idiot from Allianz said it’s different this time....whenever someone says that, you always do the opposite.

    Well, this is my logic. There are 50 million people in Korea. There are 1000 known infected, it's probably more than that, but let's just say 1000. That means that 1 in 50,000 has it there. There are still thousands per day flying out of South Korea it appears (hard to tell by flights online, but I would assume they are large planes crossing the pacific). That means there's a:

    number of people flying per day / 50,000 = chance of infected person on a plane.

    So if there's 4000 per day, there's an 8% chance every day (and growing higher) that a flight leaving Korea has an infection on it. Probably infecting others as well on that plane.

    Steps that should be taken in order to slow down the spread are not being taken, like grounding all flights from there and Italy. So I can only see downside risk from here.

    Now if steps were being taken to reduce risk, then I would agree with you. Longer term everything will recover. But next 6+ months, I can't see the upside...first quarter and second quarter earnings are going to be lackluster, supply chain is still weak, really high debt with some companies, etc.

    Companies with lots of debt are going to have major issues if this drags out.

    My logic could be totally wrong though. These are just my rough calculations.

    #1459 31 days ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    Well, this is my logic. There are 50 million people in Korea. There are 1000 known infected, it's probably more than that, but let's just say 1000. That means that 1 in 50,000 has it there. There are still thousands per day flying out of South Korea it appears (hard to tell by flights online, but I would assume they are large planes crossing the pacific). That means there's a:
    number of people flying per day / 50,000 = chance of infected person on a plane.
    So if there's 4000 per day, there's an 8% chance every day (and growing higher) that a flight leaving Korea has an infection on it. Probably infecting others as well on that plane.
    Steps that should be taken in order to slow down the spread are not being taken, like grounding all flights from there and Italy. So I can only see downside risk from here.
    Now if steps were being taken to reduce risk, then I would agree with you. Longer term everything will recover. But next 6+ months, I can't see the upside...first quarter and second quarter earnings are going to be lackluster, supply chain is still weak, really high debt with some companies, etc.
    Companies with lots of debt are going to have major issues if this drags out.
    My logic could be totally wrong though. These are just my rough calculations.

    I hope you are wrong.

    I think a lot of companies will start to think about moving their factories out of China and back here after this latest fiasco out of China. At least in this country, we aren’t going around eating wild bats.

    #1460 31 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    I hope you are wrong.
    I think a lot of companies will start to think about moving their factories out of China and back here after this latest fiasco out of China. At least in this country, we aren’t going around eating wild bats.

    Hmm..I really doubt that. This is a minor bump in the road compared to the pennies on the dollar they get there (assuming 1/3 of the population doesn't die).

    #1461 31 days ago

    11:30 PM pre-market data is showing DOW down about 1.3% which is close to 400 points.

    #1462 30 days ago

    Other than swing trades and a few dividend payers I've been mostly cash and bond funds for years. Bond funds have done quite well, but nothing compared to stocks. I've been wanting to start building up some index fund exposure, so I sold 4 SPY puts, a couple expiring tomorrow and a couple in two weeks. At the current price of 307, looks like I'll get assigned all 4 at around 314 cost basis. I'm fine with that as an initial purchase. If/when the market drops 10-15% more, I'll pick up 4 more. I'd like to end up around 1200-1500 shares of SPY and 30-40% cash/bonds for a balanced portfolio.

    #1463 30 days ago
    Quoted from leaffan67:

    Views on gold?

    Gone nowhere for as long as I've been watching it (15 years). As far as inflation hedges, a friend once told me "the best way to beat inflation is to own things that are inflating in price". Gold moves with stocks-ish mostly now. If you want to own something that moves counter to the market during a down period, I still like bonds better. Lots of bond funds pay dividends.

    #1464 30 days ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    Gone nowhere for as long as I've been watching it (15 years). As far as inflation hedges, a friend once told me "the best way to beat inflation is to own things that are inflating in price". Gold moves with stocks-ish mostly now. If you want to own something that moves counter to the market during a down period, I still like bonds better. Lots of bond funds pay dividends.

    So..pinball machines. We are all in the right place! *cough*

    #1465 30 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    So..pinball machines. We are all in the right place! *cough*

    Haha yeah I mean pinball is less liquid but its certainly inflating along with stocks, real estate, etc. And you can play it!

    #1466 30 days ago
    Quoted from Richthofen:

    Gone nowhere for as long as I've been watching it (15 years).

    Huh? It's tripled over the past 15 years. I think it's slightly outperformed the market. That doesn't seem like "gone nowhere".

    #1467 30 days ago

    The DOW is down 12.8% from around the high on Feb. 12.

    Dow 25766 from 29551

    #1468 30 days ago

    I'm totally cool with it. I just wish my Father in Law wasn't literally retiring tomorrow (2/27) and living off of his savings. For me this is just a buying opportunity.

    #1469 30 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    The DOW is down 12.8% from around the high on Feb. 12.
    Dow 25766 from 29551

    We had a family gathering on Feb. 8 and I told everyone to transfer their portfolio into safe havens because the market was overpriced and about to go much lower. They scoffed at me and just bragged how their retirement funds were up 30% from a year earlier.

    Oh well, I tried.

    #1470 30 days ago
    Quoted from Beechwood:

    We had a family gathering on Feb. 8 and I told everyone to transfer their portfolio into safe havens because the market was overpriced and about to go much lower. They scoffed at me and just bragged how their retirement funds were up 30% from a year earlier.
    Oh well, I tried.

    My post from Jan. 27:

    Quoted from DCFAN:

    It seems like the right time for a 15-20 percent correction at a minimum.
    If DOW 29300 from around Thursday of last week is considered the starting point of a correction, the -20% would be approximately DOW 23440.

    #1471 30 days ago

    Closed out my 240/220 June QQQ put spread a little early today. Was able to sell $98 RY puts to offset the cost of my $105 Apr 20. So no net cash outlay but potential to make a good profit if RY falls further. Only position I am worried about is a 16/20 put spread on UVXY. VIX is on a tear.

    Also opened Mar 13 QQQ 210/205 put spread for kicks.

    #1472 30 days ago

    I seriously do not grasp out calls/puts work. I mean, I know 'how' they work, but I suck at the guessing game around them.

    #1473 30 days ago
    Quoted from Zablon:

    I seriously do not grasp out calls/puts work. I mean, I know 'how' they work, but I suck at the guessing game around them.

    What do you want to know?

    #1474 30 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    My post from Jan. 27:

    15-20% drops are not something that normally happens.

    Was market overbought? Yep...it’s why I sold calls.

    Was market overpriced? Not really. That’s why I went for Exxon and more First Solar.

    #1475 30 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    15-20% drops are not something that normally happens.
    Was market overbought? Yep...it’s why I sold calls.
    Was market overpriced? Not really. That’s why I went for Exxon and more First Solar.

    That Exxon drop is painful. I have 600 averaged somewhere in the upper 50s. I don't like that they seem to be paying the dividend by increasing debt. That's a poor long-term strategy. If oil doesn't go up significantly, they'll have to cut the dividend or sell assets.

    #1476 30 days ago

    The thing I don't understand is what if consumer goods are disrupted for a short time? So what...things like Apple phones, etc. will just rebounce and catch back up. Does the anxiety the past few days justify the devaluation in stock? In other words, why does maybe a 5% dip in short term sales seem worse than driving the market down 12%? If I can't buy a table because of a shortage...I'm still going to buy later.

    Seems like 'Shoot yourself in the foot to spite your face.' mentality. I know the markets don't like uncertainty, but it sure seems to like 'stupid' some days.

    Somehow I need to turn this into a 'cargument'. LOL

    #1477 30 days ago
    Quoted from mbwalker:

    The thing I don't understand is what if consumer goods are disrupted for a short time? So what...things like Apple phones, etc. will just rebounce and catch back up. Does the anxiety the past few days justify the devaluation in stock? In other words, why does maybe a 5% dip in short term sales seem worse than driving the market down 12%? If I can't buy a table because of a shortage...I'm still going to buy later.
    Seems like 'Shoot yourself in the foot to spite your face.' mentality. I know the markets don't like uncertainty, but it sure seems to like 'stupid' some days.
    Somehow I need to turn this into a 'cargument'. LOL

    If people shut in more, there is a lot of spending that just never happens or is never made up such as holiday goods, restaurants, movies, sports attendance, less gas sales, airlines, trains, buses, etc.

    #1478 30 days ago
    Quoted from mbwalker:

    The thing I don't understand is what if consumer goods are disrupted for a short time? So what...things like Apple phones, etc. will just rebounce and catch back up. Does the anxiety the past few days justify the devaluation in stock? In other words, why does maybe a 5% dip in short term sales seem worse than driving the market down 12%? If I can't buy a table because of a shortage...I'm still going to buy later.
    Seems like 'Shoot yourself in the foot to spite your face.' mentality. I know the markets don't like uncertainty, but it sure seems to like 'stupid' some days.
    Somehow I need to turn this into a 'cargument'. LOL

    I think the problem is the uncertainty. Stock market likes clarity. You have two spectrums here. We could somehow miraculously make it through with no disruptions or find a cure super quickly and this blows over in a few months. Then you have the opposite where schools/businesses are closed for a long period of time, like no MLB, no NFL, restaurants almost vacant, etc...would really take a toll on the economy.

    It'll probably be somewhere in the middle. But until we know for certain, I would guess that we're going to get a lot of drastic moves. The problem is that we're not making the simple moves to reduce immediate risk, like closing flights to Korea or Italy...that's going to bite us here eventually I would guess.

    In my opinion, what should have happened is immediate closing of borders for travel, and setup a fund to support affected airlines. Keep the virus from ever getting here at all costs. While painful, that is much better than any of the alternatives. Stock market would not be dropping like it is now if we would have closed the borders...it would have taken a hit, but not a 'fear based' rout.

    #1479 30 days ago
    Quoted from loneacer:

    I don't like that they seem to be paying the dividend by increasing debt.

    This has been the M.O. of a lot of companies during the last 10 years of ultra low rates. There’s no good organic investment opportunities and CEOs are compensated in stock. So they do the thing that raises the stock price, aka buybacks and/or increasing dividend. All this money sloshing around the economy and yet there’s so little real productive things to spend it on for a lot of companies.

    #1480 30 days ago
    Quoted from sir_tankalot:

    SIR TANKALOT CHARGES THE CENTER LANE!!!
    (Sorry, I couldn't resist!)

    It is either 1987 or 1928.

    What do you think?

    - Lyman

    #1481 30 days ago
    Quoted from sir_tankalot:

    It is either 1987 or 1928.
    What do you think?
    - Lyman

    my guess is 87. The federal reserve will be handing out even more free money soon to prop it up.

    #1482 30 days ago
    Quoted from sir_tankalot:

    It is either 1987 or 1928.
    What do you think?
    - Lyman

    Why not 1932? The stock market crash of 1928 recovered a bit in 1932 only to test new lows that year. I believe 2008 was 1928 and 2020 could be 1932. Did we really fix any of the structural issues that caused 2008? Or just paper over it with cheap money?

    #1483 29 days ago
    Quoted from taylor34:

    I think the problem is the uncertainty. Stock market likes clarity. You have two spectrums here. We could somehow miraculously make it through with no disruptions or find a cure super quickly and this blows over in a few months. Then you have the opposite where schools/businesses are closed for a long period of time, like no MLB, no NFL, restaurants almost vacant, etc...would really take a toll on the economy.
    It'll probably be somewhere in the middle. But until we know for certain, I would guess that we're going to get a lot of drastic moves. The problem is that we're not making the simple moves to reduce immediate risk, like closing flights to Korea or Italy...that's going to bite us here eventually I would guess.
    In my opinion, what should have happened is immediate closing of borders for travel, and setup a fund to support affected airlines. Keep the virus from ever getting here at all costs. While painful, that is much better than any of the alternatives. Stock market would not be dropping like it is now if we would have closed the borders...it would have taken a hit, but not a 'fear based' rout.

    Actually, a lot of studies and models of this type of situation suggests just the opposite...keeping borders open and allowing commerce to continue is the better option.

    #1484 29 days ago

    Loving this stock market

    #1485 29 days ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    Actually, a lot of studies and models of this type of situation suggests just the opposite...keeping borders open and allowing commerce to continue is the better option.

    Sorry, I wasn't entirely specific. I would still let products in for commerce, I just wouldn't let people in.

    #1486 29 days ago

    I’m starting to buy some.. maybe we keep diving. Stocks on sale! Slashing prices

    #1487 29 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    The DOW is down 12.8% from around the high on Feb. 12.
    Dow 25766 from 29551

    What is it we say around here? Ah, yes - 10K by Christmas!

    #1488 29 days ago

    I get all of my investing advice on r/wallstreetbets.

    #1489 29 days ago

    I saw people talking about how the USA 30-year bond yield has halved in the past year. can someone explain to me in lay terms what the implication of a 30-year bond yield dropping like that are?
    Is it a bet on the long-term feasibility of the markets? A prediction of long-term low interest rates? Or something else?

    EDIT: I expanded the data range and it seems the 30-year bond has been in an overall state of decline since 1987 (9.87) to today (1.675)
    the drop also lines up with similar plummet in Canada's 30-year bond, so it's not USA-specific

    #1490 29 days ago
    Quoted from LITZ:

    Poor poor Jeremy always playing the victim role. I enjoyed reading some of your previous posts here on Pinside! As far as screenshots go, how about a link to the 2020 US Investing Championships? Scroll down to the bottom for the January results and you will see yours truly listed in the Stock Options division (Enhanced Growth). I had a 29% month in January and as of the close yesterday my account is up 50% YTD! This is a verified contest where I send in my broker statements. Past winners happen to be trading legends like Paul Tudor Jones.
    https://financial-competitions.com/
    Here is last year's Market Watch article. My name will appear in this year's press release.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/united-states-investing-championship-first-month-results-2019-02-14
    I am glad you were honest about losing $2K with me and not the entire $3K you started with. There is no way to make money when you are paying insane broker commissions in Canada. But, if you remember the text messages I sent ya, I told you that my main momentum indicator had divergence starting on Oct 22nd and this lasted for 5 weeks. I did not close out my trades because I truly believed the market would rollover. I "TIMED" the market perfectly with my long only 401K account; picking bottoms and selling tops throughout 2019. So, I had no reason to think this indicator would lead me astray. I then explained how I found another momentum indicator to act as a filter since it did not show the same divergence during that Oct- Nov period.
    I kept you in the trading room for free so that you could see me recover all those losses. Not only did I recover, I made 100% return on that draw down! Most ppl would have quit and given up after such a bad F- up in front of paying customers! Once I proved my point I booted you out of the room when you started asking for your 3K back! No body is capable of escaping a draw down period. That was mine for 2019 and it's unfortunate you got caught in it. This was the best thing to happen to me. It prepared me to be much more disciplined with cutting my losers when the stops are hit, no questions asked.

    At the risk of trolling, I'd really love an update from this trading expert...

    #1491 29 days ago
    Quoted from investingdad:

    At the risk of trolling, I'd really love an update from this trading expert...

    Me too.

    I’m sitting in doctors office, don’t have actual numbers for what I did. I will update tonight.

    Covered my Apple calls. I think I covered my first solar calls too, not 100% sure.

    Sold all the Exxon, rolled it into Chevron. Reason for this was to take a loss against my gains for 2020. Stayed with a similar company.

    Bought 1,000 shares of American Express.

    #1492 29 days ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Me too.
    I’m sitting in doctors office, don’t have actual numbers for what I did. I will update tonight.
    Covered my Apple calls. I think I covered my first solar calls too, not 100% sure.
    Sold all the Exxon, rolled it into Chevron. Reason for this was to take a loss against my gains for 2020. Stayed with a similar company.
    Bought 1,000 shares of American Express.

    Did you ever sell off that JCP stock?

    #1493 29 days ago

    Super Tuesday next week. Bernie from California won’t be liked by market I suspect.

    #1494 29 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    Did you ever sell off that JCP stock?

    Nope. Still have it. Down around 7k on it.

    One of those things that if it works, great. If not, it wasn’t a big investment.

    #1495 29 days ago
    Quoted from topkat:

    Super Tuesday next week. Bernie from California won’t be liked by market I suspect.

    NY/Vermont you mean.
    Say no to any politics

    #1496 29 days ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    NY/Vermont you mean.
    Say no to any politics

    I meant calif since its the 3rd of march as well. Not a political statement, just a statement that if he is the dem pick the market may respond negatively.
    something to keep in mind for the next few days.. thats all

    #1497 29 days ago

    All you stock traders what do you make of this AAPL day low $256 Current $275

    I mean that’s a $20 swing, is that just a matter of one share trading that low not to be mistaken for the majority of sales or was there a turning of the tide? Did it hit some support level?

    Basically I’m long stocks and have lost money on paper but never considered to sell at these blood bath prices although I’m sure some have got out and back in lower. But to me I’m just looking at holding for years or decades so not concerned overly about paper losses.

    #1498 29 days ago
    Quoted from rai:

    All you stock traders what do you make of this AAPL day low $256 Current $275
    I mean that’s a $20 swing, is that just a matter of one share trading that low not to be mistaken for the majority of sales or was there a turning of the tide? Did it hit some support level?
    Basically I’m long stocks and have lost money on paper but never considered to sell at these blood bath prices although I’m sure some have got out and back in lower. But to me I’m just looking at holding for years or decades so not concerned overly about paper losses.

    AAPL should beat the market because they always seem flush with a huge cash stockpile.

    #1499 27 days ago

    Next week should be very interesting on the markets. I expect things to go up a little from last week. But no way to know what will happen. Market seems to react negatively to any bad news. The first Corona death in the US over the weekend may be cause for more negative sentiment towards the economy, which may cause the DOW to drop further. Need some good news for a change to help the market to start to turn positive again. Not sure if any decision will be made on interest rates next week but that could help.

    I had a very good week with QQQ puts so it help offset some of my losses from stocks I hold long term. Still have a couple UVXY put spreads outstanding so I need the VIX to come down some.

    What trades are you looking at for next week?

    #1500 27 days ago
    Quoted from rai:

    All you stock traders what do you make of this AAPL day low $256 Current $275
    I mean that’s a $20 swing, is that just a matter of one share trading that low not to be mistaken for the majority of sales or was there a turning of the tide? Did it hit some support level?

    You would need to look at the trading activity for the day to see how many actual shares traded at the low point on this day. I think it followed the path of the Dow which was much lower earlier in the day and then recovered some by the end of the day. AAPL should fall further or go up depending on how the overall market does next week. If the market is fairly flat, I would expect it will outperform the market. But it is a guessing game really. Someone may have a link for the trading throughout the day.

    Look at Yahoo finance from Friday. Both AAPL and the DOW had their lows for the day around the same time at 10:04am.

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