‘Cause the entire banking system is collapsing tomorrow

Wait…I thought we were there last year? Or was it the year before? Definitely now though. Yep.

I'm not sure. Uncertainty...the kryptonite for a bull market. I can only look at history and tell you that financials, commodities (energy) and REITs do best in inflationary environment. I would add healthcare to that list as well. You can buy the ETFs for each of those sectors and collect some dividend while we wait to see what happens. Inflation, tapering, interest rate hike, tax hikes, possible govt shutdown, not to mention more Covid...holy shit! Just too many variables to account for.

If the fed nails it and we do come in for a soft landing then the economy can still stay in the boom cycle, if they don't, they'll kill it.

I thought it was bold for Robert Kiyosaki to predict a massive collapse this Month.
Will he be wrong? Perhaps.
Still like to hear his opinions.

Robert Kiyosaki’s Twitter feed reads like someone who needs a wellness check.

His net worth is listed between 85 million and 3.4 billion. I find his opinions sometimes scattered, evasive, but worthy of a listen.

I will give you that he has high net worth.

Worthy of a listen? Agree to disagree.

Is it his stance on guns? He was a Marine in Vietnam and yes, he really likes his guns and ammo.
I don't think the sun rises and sets in his hind end.
When he is on Stansberry Research he is very entertaining.
Very old school, seriously HODL kind of guy. Claims he still has the first Krugerrand he purchased illegally in Saigon (Americans could not legally own gold at the time).
Hope he is wrong about the mother of all crashes coming this Month. Most of these talking heads don't give a date. I don't think he would say it if he didn't have good reason, he has never tried to sell me something.
Oh well, enough about this guy. Just another character in the Cast of Life.

Honestly had zero clue about his gun stance and even if I did, it would have precisely zero effect on the value I would give his stock advice.

Don't put your life savings in it, but Netlist (NLST) in the pinks is a CRAZY story that is about to close what looks like a very profitable chapter after more than 10 years of Google trying to kill them after stealing their patented RAM tech (and being caught red-handed in criminal anti-trust with Samsung helping Google try to kill them). Given that Google stole Netlist's patented tech and has profited 1.1 trillion $USD in those 10 years, even a small royalty will be tens of billions. Their patents cover pretty much all fast ram from DDR4 forward. SK Hynix has already settled. Marvell/Inphi, Samsung, Google and pretty much anyone that makes anything with memory is subject to their patents. Do your own due diligence, but it's a really rare pink sheet stock that will be relisted on NASDAQ eventually. I was in at $2. It's been over $10 and is now sitting at around $6 waiting for news in the Samsung and Google cases. Given the size of just the Google settlement, it's likely a $50 or more stock and much more over time once the royalty schedules are established with every manufacturer on earth that uses fast RAM.

I really like his older books, but anymore he's just constantly predicting market crashes for more publicity unfortunately. There's quite a few like him that do the same thing, constantly predicting doom.

I will say though, that eventually him and the others like him are going to be right...the US can't keep running the country like they are without huge repercussions eventually (debt default, high inflation out of control, super high taxes, or zero growth). The debt is growing at a rate where eventually we won't be able to do much but service it, just a matter of when that happens. It's not happening this month. And probably not for the next decade. But after that? There's going to be a real financial crisis where we can't just kick the can down the road like we have been doing...just a matter of what triggers if finally.

WTF is happening today?

It's the annual "government shutdown holiday". Doesn't need to happen, shouldn't happen, but some will make it happen because it's their only card to play... nevermind what it will do to the economy, etc.

Well, FB whistleblower has sped up the rotation out of tech in anticipation of the rate hike in 2022...Thank you very much Ms. Haugen! She just cost me 20 grand. But this kind of crap happens even in a stellar, heavyweight of a co. If you have a long term view, this maybe a good time to just nibble (Don't go all in!) on some quality tech names. FB will come back, Wall Street can't help itself, they like money and FB makes money. I don't see people deleting FB anytime soon. The regulatory risk might be of concern but that's way down the line.

Also an FB stock holder
but FB deserves all of it!

Look at the technicals on the s&p 500 spdr 1 yr chart - shows the moving averages - if we don't get and upward trend soon looking like we may test the 200 day.
green 20 day
blue 50 day
grey 100 day
red 200 day.

sp500 (resized).jpg

Did i say ENERGY?

I'm talking to myself again, i know. Lol. $$$

I believe you also said PINS, FSLY, TDOC, Z etc. and for that reason I am down about 20k at the moment lol. No one's fault but my own, but I would have never gotten into those if it weren't for this thread.

Ok share, what are you doing with your tech portfolio? Are you reallocating or HODLing?

I nibbled a bit more APPL, NET, CRWD today - along with padding some more VIG/VYM.

Really have been inactive lately, not enough time to wade through all the BS going on right now. In my own portfolios while it is down a bit, it's still within ranges to keep going up. Things are still up so much, it's tough to buy more thinking there may be a big downside on the horizon...but it seems anymore it's just crying wolf. Why anyone thinks 'now' there's a problem after all the BS in the last 2 years is beyond me.

Wonder how much Facebook will fall this week? 10% - 15% by Friday?

Wonder what the fall out is going to be for all this for Social Media in general.

FB trickles into a lot of markets, marketing, authentication and communication.

Think they are going to have to come back with something quick. But honestly
what even can compete?

What about Apple, SE, TTD, MELI and all the others? You didn't want to listen when we were buying PINS between $12-$24 in Jan of 2019 and April of 2020.

Looks like you have had some poor timing in the short term. What's down today can be back up big long-term. You've also heard me say don't buy anything unless you have at least a 3-5 yr time horizon.

Small caps and growth are getting hammered, with the slide beginning in Feb for some stocks. Maybe we are just seeing the beginning of that trend. Maybe we see some upside surprise?

With that said, do whatever Kvan says and DON'T listen to me. Lol

GL

I don't get it....you pop in just to say what? That's just weird....Just can't play nice. What do I have to do with his portfolio?

Bought 10 shares of AMZN today since it's now down on the year, and about 50k spread across a dozen or so dividend aristocrats that are paying 3.5-5% yields. I had been sitting around 85% cash across all my accounts, but cash is trash in a high inflation world.

Also bought 700 ounces of physical silver last week. It's already up about $1.15/ounce from where I got it.

Did you factor in the taxes and premium you paid on the silver?

There were no taxes (sales taxes), and the rounds I bought are actually selling on ebay for about $15/ounce higher than I paid. I'm planning to sell them as collectibles, but the silver value is a nice fallback.

You can find a chart that fits your ideals - most are bs - who here has been investing since 1802?

gold chart (resized).jpg

Im still underwater on my AU - but its more for insurance

I always wonder if gold really will or would have any actual extrinsic value in an apocalyptic economic collapse. What the hell are you going to do with heavy ass gold in that situation? Seems like ammo and safety and sex are the currency in that world.

No doubt! Great, I have 500 pounds of gold, but no way to move it anywhere. Never learned to ride a horse, gas no longer exists, I guess it will make a great chair or reward for those who did buy guns and ammo.

Don’t forget toilet paper!

The same thing they did before technology. It will always have value.

You will need gold bullets to kill the new type of zombies coming after the covid apocalypse

And food.

In worst case scenario no one will trade gold for food.

LTG : )

Got that right - gold is only for the temporary - "oh my dollar is now worth 5 cents" not the solar flare taking out the power grid

It's almost like you don't know history. People like shiny's. Food, and all that other stuff was always a thing, and gold will be as well.

It’s almost like you don’t consider that people in a day and age of technology, television, internet, and information ease aren’t wowed by shiny trinkets. It doesn’t make any more sense than just exchanging the same paper money for imaginary value. In a breakdown situation, nobody can do anything of worth with gold any more than they can paper money. Gold only retains value in a world where there is an upper class that still values it for show.

Aerospace and electronics are the primary practical drivers of gold consumption. But yes, people love their shiny things... that is... if they aren't starving or fighting off The Humongous like Road Warrior style trying to steal your chickens and fuel and people.

Fact is, we are all highly interdependent upon one another for millions of things and reasons. If all of the economic links connecting us somehow miraculously shatter all at the same time, we're pretty much screwed no matter how much of whatever miracle hedge product we've socked away.

Hey put this stick in your pants and you’ll get rich. I said it on Pinside so you know it’s a reliable source

A13BC5C0-92B3-4A36-BE1B-30A81D8DF375 (resized).jpeg

Electronics and aerospace only composes less than 10% of mined golds usage. The majority is jewelry and investment.

If shit gets really bad stick to the basics, food, guns and ammo.

True. Referencing "primary practical drivers" factors that out, as practicality would likely take precedence during a mass upheaval.

My girlfriend is a jeweler/metalsmith, we always have a fair amount of gold and silver around, but not as an investment, solely to make stuff from it. She tracks the prices, when gold and silver go low, jewelers all talk about it and stock up. Silver has been dropping pretty steadily since June, Gold has been dropping since August 2020, I don't really see a good trend there for investing in either right now.

And yeah, if the world collapses, booze, food, gas, water, drugs, guns, ammo, and an easy to secure home would be much more valuable.

Gold and silver are driven as a safe haven by marketers that prey on watchers and listeners of right-leaning media sources, which tend to be more concerned about systemic collapse than the average person. They sell it to you for your paper money for a reason.

So you think everything going back to the stone ages people won't value it for show? I disagree. There will always be the haves and have nots, and the haves will always want to flaunt things that others can't have. I am talking about, no more technology, television, internet. And with everything going to the wayside, so does the information and intelligence. I'm not talking about a week without power. I'm not saying 'I' care about it, I'm saying people do, and will. They will go back to what they know worked. The difference may be I'm going past just an economic collapse to a complete societal collapse. (this is probably where the disconnect is). Last year was a perfect example of what a few years of hard times will do, and in that aspect, I agree with you - but there would still be those who hoard it and try to use it as trade.

I suppose it depends on what type of a post-apocalyptic world you want to fantasize about. Honestly, I think the last Mad Max movie got it right, clean water will be the most valuable resource.

Food and water have always been the most valuable resources. I don't think anyone is disputing the important things. The question was "what would people do with gold in that situation'. I'm just of the opinion that it would retain the role it has always had, which is about embelishment. Perhaps it is too abundant now to be of much value, but people still like jewelry.

Die with it.

People with food and water can gather it later, if they want it.

LTG : )

An old friend of mine was a big Zero Hedge follower. Constantly talked about "reversion to the mean" and "fiat currency is a lie" and didn't pay his taxes for years because "stating a social security number is matter of freedom of speech".

He bought gold ounces and kept it in his house. Did not buy any stocks. Felt good during the 2000-2010 gold boom. Watched "Gold Rush" on TV. Etc...

Eventually, the IRS came knocking for back payment with penalties. Had to sell his gold and work lots of overtime and eat bologna sandwiches to avoid going to jail.

Needless to say, he learned an important lesson, but still listens to the quacks. Haven't talked to him in a while. I wonder if he's all in on cryptocurrency now. Certainly could have been a lot worse if his house was burglarized or burned down/tornado/etc. during the gold hoarding days.

Fear and loathing is expensive to maintain, but awfully profitable to sell.

Didn’t you learn anything from the Pandemic? The most valuable is TP!

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Love this quote. Over the past year I joined a crypto and metals investing discussion group on Discord my super rich realtor friend is on. All the people are pretty lefty but libertarian leaning and kept talking about the collapse of fiat currency. They bought a lot of gold, silver and copper bars which I though was nuts and they've lost alot of money on it. I just stuck around for the crypto tips, but soon realized they were just a bunch of rich yahoos fantasizing about the world collapsing and them weathering it on top and didn't even invest in crypto very well. I swear the dude that added me has lost 500K in the past year on his metal and crypto plays. And suddenly a few months ago after 50-75 posts a day, suddenly people stopped posting and a couple people left to "to focus on their families" or "to get their finances in order."