(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?

By kpg

7 years ago


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#14751 2 years ago

I’m missing the Zevia play…
My friend works at Fred Meyer (Kroger) says zevia isn’t a large seller at all. He says Spindrift is a better product in that space because it doesn’t contain stevia

#14752 2 years ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Hopefully you'll make a lot more money so you can drink better.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gifWebp.net-gifmaker.gif
#14753 2 years ago
Quoted from kidchrisso:

Seriously...grow a sac and quit acting like a child. His ideas and insight of the market is better than 90% of the opinions in this thread.

So you're telling me that ending my statement in LOL and doesn't negate what I said and make it just a joke? Who'da thunk.

#14754 2 years ago
Quoted from Pdxmonkey:

I’m missing the Zevia play…
My friend works at Fred Meyer (Kroger) says zevia isn’t a large seller at all. He says Spindrift is a better product in that space because it doesn’t contain stevia

OK, but flavored carbonated water and soda pop are two different products. And what's wrong with stevia? The sugar industry has done all it can to convince us how much healthier corn syrup is... geez. Meanwhile, diabetes is still a monster problem.

#14755 2 years ago
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#14756 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Ever notice when the market slows, so do the “hot pick” forums spanning the internet.
It’s easy to be a genius in a bull market. You can pick almost anything. Market efficiency makes pricing a breeze… almost no need to do any homework. After all, will you do better than rooms full of supercomputers and analysts making forecasts as their full-time jobs? Not likely.
UPST has done well, regardless. The rest are still puttering along through the September slog.
My personal “soda disruptor” pick ZVIA is down again. Might add a bit more.

Making good bets is not hard if your time horizon is a few yrs out...managing short term risk is hard
Earnings season is 3 weeks away, all the FAMGs will put up good numbers again. Especially Facebook and Google...Just look at the winners from last quarter it will be a rinse and repeat..Delta is waning, reopening plays are back on..I think the pullback fear will also wane when earnings season starts back up. I bought more Boeing,.Nucor and some FB and MS. I already have Alphabet.

-4
#14757 2 years ago
Quoted from DBLM:

[quoted image]

I don't have any issues with you, but I'm calling it now, it will only be a matter of time before someone over there disagrees with him, a tiff starts, and he takes his ball and goes home. That's what people like him do. It has nothing to do with pinside.

#14758 2 years ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Making good bets is not hard if your time horizon is a few yrs out...managing short term risk is hard
Earnings season is 3 weeks away, all the FAMGs will put up good numbers again. Especially Facebook and Google...Just look at the winners from last quarter it will be a rinse and repeat..Delta is waning, reopening plays are back on..I think the pullback fear will also wane when earnings season starts back up. I bought more Boeing,.Nucor and some FB and MS. I already have Alphabet.

I added in August, but am holding in Sept at least until the end. Still gunshy from earnings as I seem to get screwed on them regardless of the reports. I'm already holding MS and Apple which have done great, but I think MS might be due for a pullback...who knows.

-2
#14759 2 years ago
Quoted from kvan99:

Making good bets is not hard if your time horizon is a few yrs out...managing short term risk is hard
Earnings season is 3 weeks away, all the FAMGs will put up good numbers again. Especially Facebook and Google...Just look at the winners from last quarter it will be a rinse and repeat..Delta is waning, reopening plays are back on..I think the pullback fear will also wane when earnings season starts back up. I bought more Boeing,.Nucor and some FB and MS. I already have Alphabet.

I hope so. Really tired of Delta and the economic price we've paid by lagging other nations in vaccine adoption.

OIH and PINS had some extreme June-July exuberance here and are now 20% and 30% down to date. But probably wouldn't buy anyway... just not what I like. *shrug*

#14760 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

The sugar industry has done all it can to convince us how much healthier corn syrup is.

As well as the Artificial Sweetener Lobby.
Stevia-stock will skyrocket when it is adopted Industry wide, thats when the Suppliers and Distributors stock explodes.
If people realized the benefits this would happen tomorrow.
I will admit I don't use Stevia, cane sugar fan when I use a sweetener. High Fructose Corn Syrup (scary) not allowed in the house.
!0 years or so ago it seemed supply problems prevented widespread adoption. Majority grew in SouthA and CentralA?
You have me interested again, going to update my knowledge.

#14761 2 years ago
Quoted from Methos:

You that sensitive huh?

Nope. Like I said, I thought it was funny.

#14762 2 years ago
Quoted from Zablon:

I don't have any issues with you, but I'm calling it now, it will only be a matter of time before someone over there disagrees with him, a tiff starts, and he takes his ball and goes home. That's what people like him do. It has nothing to do with pinside.

Hahahaha. I think you have misread the situation, my friend. We all left because this thread changed. I was frustrated, Ice was frustrated, and evidently a lot of others were frustrated. There was a reason that folks asked me to organize the discord. It’s all good and no ill will at all to anybody. I sincerely mean that. I wish everybody the best of success and in making money.

#14763 2 years ago

The massive growth and how it’s already at $82 from $41.

#14764 2 years ago

And now you know why the unmanaged market indexes outperform 85% of individual investors and 75% of managed funds.

#14765 2 years ago
Quoted from irobot:

And now you know why the unmanaged market indexes outperform 85% of individual investors and 75% of managed funds.

Truth... and after factoring in fees over time, the margin slims even further. Meanwhile, the laggards usually do FAR worse. Is it worth chasing a few % points for the certain downside risk of losing years of compounding interest if they lag the quants? Do the laggards ever outperform enough to make up the difference going forward? Almost never happens. Who do you think pays for those gigantic Goldman Sachs salaries and offices anyway?

Market efficiency works in your favor. By the time a stock has a price slapped upon it, the work is already baked in. Why pay fees to let someone else roll the dice for you? Berkshire = buy things which make sense and don't bet against America. Bogle = don't pay unnecessary fees on compounding assets. Meme stocks = old fashioned pump-n-dump for the 21st century. Greed = everywhere.

As for those "hot tip newsletters", that's an old scam. Launch 100 newsletters (or 100 imaginary profiles, etc.) each one choosing stocks randomly. Cancel the ones which lag the market and upsell the remaining "winners". Throw in a bunch of technical charts, historical projections, unbridled exuberance, etc. By the time you've narrowed the field down to three newsletters/expert profiles which never tanked, it'll look like some kind of financial genius is behind them. Then charge $$$$$ for each upcoming issue and when they finally make a bad turn, disappear from sight with the profits. Example: Brinker's newsletter in May 2008 made the worst call of all... "Our cyclical health-correcting graphs show recovering strength in the economy"... oops. Cyclical what?

For a bit of fun, compare the sum total of all the buy & market timing recommendations in this thread with same-day purchases of, say, an ordinary diversified fund like SPXL (triple-weighted S&P index). Did the "Pinside Fund" outperform it? Was "optimal timing" required to capture those gains?

The very first post in this thread was December 13, 2016: "Good luck to anyone long in the market right now.. in my opinion, today would be a great day to sell and buy back on a bigger pullback. It should be getting turbulent out there very soon. Currently the Dow is at its most overbought levels I have seen in many years."

Following that advice would have been an absolute catastrophe. Not only did the DIJA pullback not happen, but doing nothing at all would have almost doubled your money in five years!

Not saying "I told you so"... legit curious! You can beat the market once in a while, but consistently? Almost never.

-3
#14766 2 years ago

Iceman tip from 2016: "Tesla should be trading at $50 bucks a share right now. One stock I would short with conviction. The Musk con is on its last legs and they won't have the govt giveaways under Trump. The cult nature of Tesla has it hanging in there for now. I'm all for green energy but this company is never gonna make $$$. Who will buy the company when the debt finally swamps them? Nobody at this price."

Had you "shorted with conviction" on this "cult company", you'd now be -$1,500% in the hole, and most certainly very, very deep into financial insolvency.

Again, not picking on anybody nor playing sanctimonious advice wizard. Only pointing out the fallacy of easy money and the simplicity of beating an efficient market with hot tips and obscure charts and market timing.

What businesses/stocks do you personally have faith in and are investing for the long term?

#14767 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Iceman tip from 2016: "Tesla should be trading at $50 bucks a share right now. One stock I would short with conviction. The Musk con is on its last legs and they won't have the govt giveaways under Trump. The cult nature of Tesla has it hanging in there for now. I'm all for green energy but this company is never gonna make $$$. Who will buy the company when the debt finally swamps them? Nobody at this price."
Had you "shorted with conviction" on this "cult company", you'd now be -$1,500% in the hole, and most certainly very, very deep into financial insolvency.
Again, not picking on anybody nor playing sanctimonious advice wizard. Only pointing out the fallacy of easy money and the simplicity of beating an efficient market with hot tips and obscure charts.

That was the first post he mentioned Tesla and it was 4 years ago. Funny how you ignored the other ones later where he admitted his strategy on Tesla was wrong and he's buying it for his clients.

I know there's a rent moratorium because of Covid but you guys shouldn't be letting Ice live rent free in your heads!

PINS!!!!!

#14768 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Iceman tip from 2016: "Tesla should be trading at $50 bucks a share right now. One stock I would short with conviction. The Musk con is on its last legs and they won't have the govt giveaways under Trump. The cult nature of Tesla has it hanging in there for now. I'm all for green energy but this company is never gonna make $$$. Who will buy the company when the debt finally swamps them? Nobody at this price."
Had you "shorted with conviction" on this "cult company", you'd now be -$1,500% in the hole, and most certainly very, very deep into financial insolvency.
Again, not picking on anybody nor playing sanctimonious advice wizard. Only pointing out the fallacy of easy money and the simplicity of beating an efficient market with hot tips and obscure charts and market timing.
What businesses/stocks do you personally have faith in and are investing for the long term?

Do we want to go through everybody's tips on this thread and collect stats for successes/failures? Not a bad idea, see who has the highest percentage for getting it right.

"Again, not picking on anyone"...

Yeah - sing a new one.

#14769 2 years ago

God I hope people don’t start comparing my wins to losses…my portfolio does that all on its own and reminds me daily.

#14770 2 years ago
Quoted from ImNotNorm:

That was the first post he mentioned Tesla and it was 4 years ago. Funny how you ignored the other ones later where he admitted his strategy on Tesla was wrong and he's buying it for his clients.
I know there's a rent moratorium because of Covid but you guys shouldn't be letting Ice live rent free in your heads!
PINS!!!!!

I didn't "ignore them"... I haven't read that far yet. But what if an investor had taken that advice to heart and wasn't committed to following Pinside from that day forward? Everyone is right if given enough time and if the market takes a turn for the better.

Quoted from Methos:

Do we want to go through everybody's tips on this thread and collect stats for successes/failures? Not a bad idea, see who has the highest percentage for getting it right.
"Again, not picking on anyone"...
Yeah - sing a new one.

Sing what? This was a copy and paste of an earlier post, extrapolated to today. As you said, might be fun to see percentage wins and losses to date.

Quoted from Oaken:

God I hope people don’t start comparing my wins to losses…my portfolio does that all on its own and reminds me daily.

LOL no kidding. I heard one financial analyst who was an impatient investor make this quip around 2010, "The best advice I could give to my friends is to look at what I do, and do the exact opposite."

#14771 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

I didn't "ignore them"... I haven't read that far yet. But what if an investor had taken that advice to heart and wasn't committed to following Pinside from that day forward?

Then they are a complete moron plain and simple. For a number of reasons.

#14772 2 years ago
Quoted from ImNotNorm:

Then they are a complete moron plain and simple. For a number of reasons.

Morons lose money by following unsolicited internet advice? Good to know. I think that's kind of the gist here.

Anyway, let's see more comparisons with SPXL. That's a decent benchmark for indexed aggressive growth. Could also use Nasdaq or another basket of mutuals. Again, just curious... this should be fun, aye?

#14773 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Morons lose money by following unsolicited internet advice? Good to know. I think that's kind of the gist here.
Anyway, let's see more comparisons with SPXL. That's a decent benchmark for indexed aggressive growth. Could also use Nasdaq or another basket of mutuals. Again, just curious... this should be fun, aye?

If you follow a stranger's free advice from a Pinball website about investing without doing any DD or staying informed after said investment then you deserved to be burned, yes.

Now, let's have a Zivea!!

PINS!!!

#14774 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

I didn't "ignore them"... I haven't read that far yet. But what if an investor had taken that advice to heart and wasn't committed to following Pinside from that day forward? Everyone is right if given enough time and if the market takes a turn for the better.

Sing what? This was a copy and paste of an earlier post, extrapolated to today. As you said, might be fun to see percentage wins and losses to date.

LOL no kidding. I heard one financial analyst who was an impatient investor make this quip around 2010, "The best advice I could give to my friends is to look at what I do, and do the exact opposite."

That’s super silly, markets change everyday.

#14775 2 years ago

DKNG!

I love gambling!

#14776 2 years ago

Picks are taken from page 4 of this thread, indexed (approximately) to today:

Baseline = SPXL (triple-weighted S&P growth fund) up 400% (negligible dividend) since Dec 16, 2016

GREAT pick - AMD up 1000% since Dec 16, 2016 (Kneissl)

MO (Altria) down 30% (pays 7% dividends) (rai)

AGNC (REIT play) down 12% (pays 9% dividends) (kpg)

XLE (energy play) down 36% (pays 3.9% dividend) (Iceman)

Good pick, beat baseline - AAPL up 500% (small dividend) (Iceman)

HD (Home Depot) up 250% (2% dividend) (Iceman)

V (VISA) up 285% (small dividend) (Iceman)

COST (Costco) up 285% (small dividend) (Iceman)

STZ (Constellation Brands) up 42% (1.4% dividend) (Iceman)

ORLY (O'Reilly) up 210% (Iceman)

SWKS (semiconductors) up 225% (Iceman)

LMT (Lockheed Martin) up 36% (3% dividend) (Iceman)

As you can see, even though there are some good picks here, only two beat the SPXL baseline and the rest lagged by almost half or did far worse.

It's really, really hard to beat the market. By and large, a small number of big winners carry the majority of market gains. Which is super awesome if you happen to pick one outright. But if you miss it, you miss the boat entirely.

Chart (minus AMD):

chart (resized).pngchart (resized).png

#14777 2 years ago
Quoted from ImNotNorm:That was the first post he mentioned Tesla and it was 4 years ago. Funny how you ignored the other ones later where he admitted his strategy on Tesla was wrong and he's buying it for his clients.
I know there's a rent moratorium because of Covid but you guys shouldn't be letting Ice live rent free in your heads!
PINS!!!!!

He should keep on reading right? It’s ok.

Apple posts, PINS, TTD, SE, SHOP, TWLO and on and on. ….Jan 2019, April of 2020 calls

To make 500% since 2016 all you really had to do is buy some Apple.

Buffet, Druckenmiller, Dalio etc all made multi billion dollar blunders over time. It’s how you invest over the long run that builds true wealth. Power of Compounding. Buy and hold great companies and buy more when they go on sale and be quick
to sell your losers

Not that it matters for Pinside, but I now manage over a Billion dollars of clients AUM. In large part thanks to all of the moves we have made since 2016!

Have a nice day and good luck fellas!

#14778 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Picks are taken from page 4 of this thread, indexed to today:
Baseline = SPXL (triple-weighted S&P growth fund) up 400% (negligible dividend) since Dec 16, 2016
GREAT pick - AMD up 1000% since Dec 16, 2016 (Kneissl)
MO (Altria) down 30% (pays 7% dividends) (rai)
AGNC (REIT play) down 12% (pays 9% dividends) (kpg)
XLE (energy play) down 36% (pays 3.9% dividend) (Iceman)
Good pick, beat baseline - AAPL up 500% (small dividend) (Iceman)
HD (Home Depot) up 250% (2% dividend) (Iceman)
V (VISA) up 285% (small dividend) (Iceman)
COST (Costco) up 285% (small dividend) (Iceman)
STZ (Constellation Brands) up 42% (1.4% dividend) (Iceman)
ORLY (O'Reilly) up 210% (Iceman)
SWKS (semiconductors) up 225% (Iceman)
LMT (Lockheed Martin) up 36% (3% dividend) (Iceman)
As you can see, even though there are some good picks here, only two beat the SPXL baseline and the rest lagged by almost half or did far worse.
It's really, really hard to beat the market. By and large, a small number of big winners carry the majority of market gains. Which is super awesome if you happen to pick one outright. But if you miss it, you miss the boat entirely.

You’ve omitted a TON of the stocks we bought and still currently own. And the TIMING of those purchases.

Where’s Apple etc. btw, V and AMD are
the ONLY stocks we own in our models from that list

As an estate planning attorney and CPA that also integrates those issues into a game plan for our clients, it all adds up and matters a lot.

Everyone has a different risk profile. Some want high growth, others safe dividend payors and other a combo thereof.

Due your own due diligence brother and good luck. My happy client base speaks for itself. That’s all that matters to me

Furthermore, I WAS here just to provide
a little help and input for people to consider.

I don’t know you and have not seen you around but your attitude is why I’m gone now. Now go back and put the rest of the list up there.

#14779 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

You’ve omitted a TON of the stocks we bought and still currently own.

True, this is only up to page four. Have to start somewhere... it's just a casual glance back after five years.

Quoted from iceman44:

Where’s Apple etc. btw, V and AMD are
the ONLY stocks we own in our models from that list

Apple, V, and AMD are in the list (not the chart... AMD did so well it blows everything else out of proportion).

Quoted from iceman44:

As an estate planning attorney and CPA that also integrates those issues into a game plan for our clients, it all adds up and matters a lot.
Everyone has a different risk profile. Some want high growth, others safe dividend payors and other a combo thereof.
Due your own due diligence brother and good luck. My happy client base speaks for itself.
Furthermore, I WAS here just to provide
a little help and input for people to consider.
I don’t know you and have not seen you around but your attitude is why I’m gone now. Now go back and put the rest of the list up there.

I'm not here to throw shade your way whatsoever, and I don't know you either. This is only a thread on a pinball forum with little icon-people making stock picks. As you know, a world of difference from actual estate planning, private equity management, etc, with loads of different requirements for different people.

You've made a lot of recommendations here and some have made money, so that's a good thing. Not sure what you mean about my attitude, however... I've had nothing negative to say.

At the moment I'm only curious about anecdotal stock comparisons and what motivates people to buy what they do. Investing vs. gambling. I'm also fundamentally skeptical of stock tips and newsletters because aside from being a boring buy-and-hold investor I worked at Citi and a privately-held financial firm for 16 years watching the market boil over in 2000 and 2008. As well as watch a number of friends and family go over the falls due to following unsolicited tips. I'm just curious if I'm missing out or doing better sticking to the quants. I do wish you well.

#14780 2 years ago

MELI, MDB, AXON, TEAM, VEEV, TREX, ROKU, OKTA just to name a few more..... Since Jan 2019, a small cap turning point off of the Fed's decision to reverse rate hikes. Exception of Apple, owned longer here.

Unrealized Positions Summary As of: 9/18/2021 Created: 9/18/2021 3:34:09 PM
Long InvestmentsSecurity Name | Symbol Units Unit Cost Orig Cost Mkt Price Mkt Value ST Gain/Loss LT Gain/Loss % Change
View Security DetailsAPPLE INC (AAPL) 173.218 $27.6993 $4,798.02 $146.06 $25,300.24 $16.65 $20,485.57 427.31%
View Security DetailsATLASSIAN CORPORATION PLC - (TEAM) 14 $104.8571 $1,468.00 $404.60 $5,664.40 $4,196.40 285.86%
View Security DetailsAXON ENTERPRISE INC (AXON) 23 $49.4674 $1,137.75 $172.38 $3,964.74 $2,826.99 248.47%
View Security DetailsINTUITIVE SURGICAL INC (ISRG) 4 $491.3025 $1,965.21 $1,037.27 $4,149.08 $2,183.87 111.13%
View Security DetailsJP MORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM) 27.071 $70.3687 $1,904.95 $157.68 $4,268.58 $20.62 $2,343.01 124.08%
View Security DetailsMERCADOLIBRE INC (MELI) 3 $345.9567 $1,037.87 $1,878.23 $5,634.69 $4,596.82 442.91%
View Security DetailsMONGODB INC (MDB) 15 $75.2880 $1,129.32 $506.99 $7,604.85 $6,475.53 573.40%
View Security DetailsMONSTER BEVERAGE CORP (MNST) 29 $68.9462 $1,999.44 $94.64 $2,744.56 $745.12 37.27%
View Security DetailsNOVOCURE LTD (NVCR) 24 $64.88 $1,557.12 $131.03 $3,144.72 $1,587.60 101.96%
View Security DetailsOKTA INC -A- (OKTA) 14 $69.3093 $970.33 $258.15 $3,614.10 $2,643.77 272.46%
View Security DetailsPINTEREST INC CL A (PINS) 100 $22.53 $2,253.00 $54.77 $5,477.00 $3,224.00 143.10%
View Security DetailsROKU INC (ROKU) 21 $88.9624 $1,868.21 $324.10 $6,806.10 $4,937.89 264.31%
View Security DetailsROUNDHILL SPORTS BETTING & (BETZ) 85 $30.6751 $2,607.38 $31.63 $2,688.55 $81.17 3.11%
View Security DetailsSHOPIFY INC A (SHOP) 4 $150.5975 $602.39 $1,486.29 $5,945.16 $5,342.77 886.93%
View Security DetailsTHE TRADE DESK INC - A (TTD) 100 $19.0358 $1,903.58 $72.58 $7,258.00 $5,354.42 281.28%
View Security DetailsTREX CO INC (TREX) 44 $34.5902 $1,521.97 $107.60 $4,734.40 $3,212.43 211.07%
View Security DetailsTWILIO INC CL A (TWLO) 20 $85.10 $1,702.00 $352.87 $7,057.40 $5,355.40 314.65%
View Security DetailsVEEVA SYSTEMS INC CL A (VEEV) 11 $99.7918 $1,097.71 $302.14 $3,323.54 $2,225.83 202.77%
View Security DetailsVISA INC (V) 51 $131.2363 $6,693.05 $221.75 $11,309.23 $0.13 $4,616.05 68.97%
View Security DetailsWALT DISNEY CO (DIS) 16.685 $98.0965 $1,636.74 $183.47 $3,061.20 $1,424.46 87.03%
View Security DetailsZYNGA INC (ZNGA) 257 $6.7471 $1,734.00 $8.01 $2,058.57 $324.57 18.72%
TOTAL (21 securities) $41,588.04 $125,809.11 $118.57 $84,102.50 202.51%

#14781 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

Truth... and after factoring in fees over time, the margin slims even further. Meanwhile, the laggards usually do FAR worse. Is it worth chasing a few % points for the certain downside risk of losing years of compounding interest if they lag the quants? Do the laggards ever outperform enough to make up the difference going forward? Almost never happens. Who do you think pays for those gigantic Goldman Sachs salaries and offices anyway?
Market efficiency works in your favor. By the time a stock has a price slapped upon it, the work is already baked in. Why pay fees to let someone else roll the dice for you? Berkshire = buy things which make sense and don't bet against America. Bogle = don't pay unnecessary fees on compounding assets. Meme stocks = old fashioned pump-n-dump for the 21st century. Greed = everywhere.
As for those "hot tip newsletters", that's an old scam. Launch 100 newsletters (or 100 imaginary profiles, etc.) each one choosing stocks randomly. Cancel the ones which lag the market and upsell the remaining "winners". Throw in a bunch of technical charts, historical projections, unbridled exuberance, etc. By the time you've narrowed the field down to three newsletters/expert profiles which never tanked, it'll look like some kind of financial genius is behind them. Then charge $$$$$ for each upcoming issue and when they finally make a bad turn, disappear from sight with the profits. Example: Brinker's newsletter in May 2008 made the worst call of all... "Our cyclical health-correcting graphs show recovering strength in the economy"... oops. Cyclical what?
For a bit of fun, compare the sum total of all the buy & market timing recommendations in this thread with same-day purchases of, say, an ordinary diversified fund like SPXL (triple-weighted S&P index). Did the "Pinside Fund" outperform it? Was "optimal timing" required to capture those gains?
The very first post in this thread was December 13, 2016: "Good luck to anyone long in the market right now.. in my opinion, today would be a great day to sell and buy back on a bigger pullback. It should be getting turbulent out there very soon. Currently the Dow is at its most overbought levels I have seen in many years."
Following that advice would have been an absolute catastrophe. Not only did the DIJA pullback not happen, but doing nothing at all would have almost doubled your money in five years!
Not saying "I told you so"... legit curious! You can beat the market once in a while, but consistently? Almost never.

Subscribe to the right newsletters, and they can make you a lot of money
They have for me over the last 15 years

#14782 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

MELI, MDB, AXON, TEAM, VEEV, TREX, ROKU, just to name a few more.....
Unrealized Positions Summary As of: 9/18/2021 Created: 9/18/2021 3:34:09 PM
Long InvestmentsSecurity Name | Symbol Units Unit Cost Orig Cost Mkt Price Mkt Value ST Gain/Loss LT Gain/Loss % Change
View Security DetailsAPPLE INC (AAPL) 173.218 $27.6993 $4,798.02 $146.06 $25,300.24 $16.65 $20,485.57 427.31%
View Security DetailsATLASSIAN CORPORATION PLC - (TEAM) 14 $104.8571 $1,468.00 $404.60 $5,664.40 $4,196.40 285.86%
View Security DetailsAXON ENTERPRISE INC (AXON) 23 $49.4674 $1,137.75 $172.38 $3,964.74 $2,826.99 248.47%
View Security DetailsINTUITIVE SURGICAL INC (ISRG) 4 $491.3025 $1,965.21 $1,037.27 $4,149.08 $2,183.87 111.13%
View Security DetailsJP MORGAN CHASE & CO (JPM) 27.071 $70.3687 $1,904.95 $157.68 $4,268.58 $20.62 $2,343.01 124.08%
View Security DetailsMERCADOLIBRE INC (MELI) 3 $345.9567 $1,037.87 $1,878.23 $5,634.69 $4,596.82 442.91%
View Security DetailsMONGODB INC (MDB) 15 $75.2880 $1,129.32 $506.99 $7,604.85 $6,475.53 573.40%
View Security DetailsMONSTER BEVERAGE CORP (MNST) 29 $68.9462 $1,999.44 $94.64 $2,744.56 $745.12 37.27%
View Security DetailsNOVOCURE LTD (NVCR) 24 $64.88 $1,557.12 $131.03 $3,144.72 $1,587.60 101.96%
View Security DetailsOKTA INC -A- (OKTA) 14 $69.3093 $970.33 $258.15 $3,614.10 $2,643.77 272.46%
View Security DetailsPINTEREST INC CL A (PINS) 100 $22.53 $2,253.00 $54.77 $5,477.00 $3,224.00 143.10%
View Security DetailsROKU INC (ROKU) 21 $88.9624 $1,868.21 $324.10 $6,806.10 $4,937.89 264.31%
View Security DetailsROUNDHILL SPORTS BETTING & (BETZ) 85 $30.6751 $2,607.38 $31.63 $2,688.55 $81.17 3.11%
View Security DetailsSHOPIFY INC A (SHOP) 4 $150.5975 $602.39 $1,486.29 $5,945.16 $5,342.77 886.93%
View Security DetailsTHE TRADE DESK INC - A (TTD) 100 $19.0358 $1,903.58 $72.58 $7,258.00 $5,354.42 281.28%
View Security DetailsTREX CO INC (TREX) 44 $34.5902 $1,521.97 $107.60 $4,734.40 $3,212.43 211.07%
View Security DetailsTWILIO INC CL A (TWLO) 20 $85.10 $1,702.00 $352.87 $7,057.40 $5,355.40 314.65%
View Security DetailsVEEVA SYSTEMS INC CL A (VEEV) 11 $99.7918 $1,097.71 $302.14 $3,323.54 $2,225.83 202.77%
View Security DetailsVISA INC (V) 51 $131.2363 $6,693.05 $221.75 $11,309.23 $0.13 $4,616.05 68.97%
View Security DetailsWALT DISNEY CO (DIS) 16.685 $98.0965 $1,636.74 $183.47 $3,061.20 $1,424.46 87.03%
View Security DetailsZYNGA INC (ZNGA) 257 $6.7471 $1,734.00 $8.01 $2,058.57 $324.57 18.72%
TOTAL (21 securities) $41,588.04 $125,809.11 $118.57 $84,102.50 202.51%

I'm happy youre back. I hope you stick around

#14783 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

As for those "hot tip newsletters", that's an old scam. Launch 100 newsletters (or 100 imaginary profiles, etc.) each one choosing stocks randomly. Cancel the ones which lag the market and upsell the remaining "winners". Throw in a bunch of technical charts, historical projections, unbridled exuberance, etc. By the time you've narrowed the field down to three newsletters/expert profiles which never tanked, it'll look like some kind of financial genius is behind them. Then charge $$$$$ for each upcoming issue and when they finally make a bad turn, disappear from sight with the profits. Example: Brinker's newsletter in May 2008 made the worst call of all... "Our cyclical health-correcting graphs show recovering strength in the economy"... oops. Cyclical what?

Ha! I had not heard of this particular version of that scam but that makes absolute sense that that happens online frequently.

Quoted from NicoVolta:

As you can see, even though there are some good picks here, only two beat the SPXL baseline and the rest lagged by almost half or did far worse.
It's really, really hard to beat the market. By and large, a small number of big winners carry the majority of market gains. Which is super awesome if you happen to pick one outright. But if you miss it, you miss the boat entirely.

I for one am really enjoying your posts. You have a lot more skills than simply fixing EM machines. Please keep the data analysis flowing, it’s awesome.

Quoted from iceman44:

Due your own due diligence brother and good luck. My happy client base speaks for itself. That’s all that matters to me
Furthermore, I WAS here just to provide
a little help and input for people to consider.
I don’t know you and have not seen you around but your attitude is why I’m gone now. Now go back and put the rest of the list up there.

Your posts in this thread are also awesome. I - like many - am happy you are posting in this thread again. I don’t view NV as being negative to you here, he’s just sharing his own views and they are also good to read.

#14784 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

True, this is only up to page four. Have to start somewhere... it's just a casual glance back after five years.

Apple, V, and AMD are in the list (not the chart... AMD did so well it blows everything else out of proportion).

I'm not here to throw shade your way whatsoever, and I don't know you either. This is only a thread on a pinball forum with little icon-people making stock picks. As you know, a world of difference from actual estate planning, private equity management, etc, with loads of different requirements for different people.
You've made a lot of recommendations here and some have made money, so that's a good thing. Not sure what you mean about my attitude, however... I've had nothing negative to say.
At the moment I'm only curious about anecdotal stock comparisons and what motivates people to buy what they do. Investing vs. gambling. I'm also fundamentally skeptical of stock tips and newsletters because aside from being a boring buy-and-hold investor I worked at Citi and a privately-held financial firm for 16 years watching the market boil over in 2000 and 2008. As well as watch a number of friends and family go over the falls due to following unsolicited tips. I'm just curious if I'm missing out or doing better sticking to the quants. I do wish you well.

It's all good. I tell people DON'T do what I do or recommend. Just put into the calculus. Go against it. Whatever. Go read John Bogle's book "Common Sense Investing" and ride the S&P your whole life. Would be much better than buying any mutual funds. People need to educate themselves and more importantly try and learn from mistakes. It does NOT take a high IQ to accumulate wealth. It does take patience and discipline and a long term view.

2000, 2008, March of 2020. What do you do with those opportunities when they present themselves? It takes a good tax, legal and financial plan to make it work long term.

I like to live by one of Buffet's famous sayings, especially for clients in developing a plan for retirement, "Don't risk what you have and what you need for what you don't have and don't need".

Good luck brother!

#14785 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

It's all good. I tell people DON'T do what I do or recommend. Just put into the calculus. Go against it. Whatever. Go read John Bogle's book "Common Sense Investing" and ride the S&P your whole life.
I like to live by one of Buffet's famous sayings, especially for clients in developing a plan for retirement, "Don't risk what you have and what you need for what you don't have and don't need".
Good luck brother!

Back atcha, man. And hey… when not poring over spreadsheets be thankful for all of that Texas BBQ and Tex-Mex in abundance down there. What’s the stock price on enjoying the little things? I’m still hoping a Texas expat moves to little Roanoke to bring some magical fajitas…

#14786 2 years ago
Quoted from TigerLaw:

Ha! I had not heard of this particular version of that scam but that makes absolute sense that that happens online frequently.

I for one am really enjoying your posts. You have a lot more skills than simply fixing EM machines. Please keep the data analysis flowing, it’s awesome.

Your posts in this thread are also awesome. I - like many - am happy you are posting in this thread again. I don’t view NV as being negative to you here, he’s just sharing his own views and they are also good to read.

I'm sure he means well Tiger and i like NV's input, just NOT when he's misrepresenting my own (I'm a little touchy after the Deeproot sewer), he's missing a TON of big winners since 2016 and that's ok, it's just misleading quite a bit when you don't even put Apple in the list from 2016 and don't follow it through to now the whole picture, all i'm saying

I get and appreciate the point he was trying to make.

Like i said, the only scoreboard that matters are the one's with my clients. Just tried to offer a little extra input to consider. That's what i get.

Input away NV, it's valued good stuff!

#14788 2 years ago

Thanks y’all. It is hard to think out loud nowadays without stepping on someone’s toes inadvertently. Pardon if I did… probably shouldn’t be posting conjectures about financial scenarios while kids are yelling about a ball being stuck and popcorn is scattering across the floor on a busy Saturday.

So, eh, anyone buying stuff they understand and like for the long term? I bought some GRN carbon offset because I like the idea… green things, sugar-free things, etc. Perhaps the opposite of the ol’ VICE fund. :p

#14789 2 years ago
Quoted from NicoVolta:

P
[quoted image]

I wouldn't say miss the boat entirely, at least in the climate since 2016, even with COVID counted in. It's been hard to lose, even I beat the S&P in the last year and I'm a pretty conservative player. It's during this period of transition, and possible downturns in the future that you start to see who knows what they are talking about. (I'm not claiming to be one of them).

To ICE's point as well, and I didn't want to really say much regarding it since he wasn't here, but since he's here, timing of them is really everything. In the time I've been here, many of his calls in the thread are long after he bought in, and for those looking for quick wins, they were near the top or headed down short term. I'm referring of course to the non big obvious ones.

#14790 2 years ago

Emotional Intelligence

Managing our emotions is far more important than a high IQ for investing. If you have a strong grip on your emotions and a roughly average IQ, you are going to perform much better in the markets than someone with a high IQ low emotional intelligence.

Here is the Wikipedia entry on Ronald James Read:

"Ronald James Read (October 23, 1921 – June 2, 2014) was an American philanthropist, investor, janitor, and gas station attendant".

A rich philanthropist who is also a janitor and a gas station attendant, quite a unique character in financial history.

Mr. Read worked in a gas station for 25 years, and he swept floors at JC Penney for 17 years. He also served in the U.S. Army in Italy during World War II.

Ronald Read died in 2014 at 92 years of age, with nearly $8 million in assets. He left $1.2 million to Brooks Memorial Library and $4.8 million to Brattleboro Memorial Hospital.

The $8 million janitor did not win the lottery or receive any big inheritances. He just lived frugally and invested in blue-chip stocks for the long term, as simple and powerful as that.

Mr. Read's portfolio was unsophisticated, owning many dividend-paying blue-chip names. He owned 95 stocks, including mostly safe names like Procter & Gamble, JPMorgan Chase, General Electric, and Johnson & Johnson.

Throughout most of his life, Mr. Read was holding on to stocks for the long term, adding to positions and reinvesting the dividends. He was a consistent buyer as opposed to an active trader.

Contrast this story with what happened to Long term Capital Management (LTCM). This was a Hedge Fund founded in 1994 by John Meriwether, the former vice-chairman of Salomon Brothers. The team also included Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, who shared a Nobel Prize in economics, and David Wiley Mullins Jr, who was a former vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve.

LTCM had many of the most successful traders and finance executives in the world, not only one but two Nobel Prize winners, and a former vice-chairman of the Fed. They also had access to an unlimited amount of capital, LTCM even returned $2.7 billion to investors in 1997 because they wanted to focus on managing the partners' own money.

The hedge fund obtained outstanding gains for multiple years, but it ultimately blew up during the 1998 Russian Financial Criss. The main reason why LTCM collapsed is that they were leveraged 30 to 1 or even 40 to 1 at some point. This means using $30 or $40 in borrowed money on every $1 of your own capital.

If you do this, you'd better be very right all the time, not only on the direction of market moves but also on the timing of those moves.

The LTCM team was brilliantly smart, and they were right far more often than not. But they were not right all the time, so they ultimately failed.

LTCM was gigantic, and its failure was having an impact on all kinds of markets, with unpredictable ripple effects. The Fed orchestrated a $3.6 billion bailout "to contain a wider collapse in the financial markets" at the time.

Interestingly, the executives at LTCM were already managing their own money in the fund, and all of the top executives were worth tens and even hundreds of millions of dollars. But they still took more risks than they should have taken, and they lost all of that money.

Warren Buffett later elaborated on what happened to LTCM.

They are not bad people at all. But to make money they didn’t have and didn’t need, they risked what they did have and did need. That is foolish. That is just plain foolish. It doesn’t make any difference what your IQ is. If you risk something that is important to you for something that is unimportant to you it just does not make any sense.

The contrast is outstanding. A janitor with no formal financial education amassed a fortune by simply saving a lot and buying shares in well-known companies for the long term. On the other hand, many of the most brilliant minds in finance lost all of their money and produced a huge dislocation in financial markets by being too greedy and short-term oriented.

It is not about having the best strategy or picking the best stocks, and it is certainly not about having the biggest brain or the most powerful computer. It is all about having a long-term mindset, patience, and perspective.

Overcoming Fear Of Mistakes

When it comes to emotions and their impact on investing, fear is the most important challenge. Not only fear of losses but also fear of missing out - FOMO - can be very problematic.

We don't buy a stock because we fear that it could not work out. Or we sell a position because we can't tolerate the transitory losses anymore. We sometimes lose our minds due to greed and fear of missing out, and we end up buying the wrong stock at the wrong price.

Economic data coming up in the European session

It is crucial to understand that mistakes are unavoidable. We are going to miss some big winners and we are going to buy some stocks that don't work out well. If we are going to play this game over multiple years, which is the right thing to do in order to build wealth, then we are going to make some mistakes along the way.

The key is managing risk with position size, diversification, and a long-term horizon. Also cutting losses when the thesis is not playing out well. If we do this, occasional mistakes are no impediment to achieving long-term success in the market.

There is no doubt that Warren Buffett is one of the most successful investors ever alive, and we all study his victories in search of clues about how to make better decisions. However, the fact that he built an enormous fortune in spite of some massive mistakes can be an even more important lesson.

The name Berkshire Hathaway comes from a failed textile business that Buffett bought in 1962. The turnaround failed, and Buffett called this mistake a $200 billion blunder. The Oracle of Omaha has admitted to many other expensive mistakes in names such as General Reinsurance, ConocoPhillips, and Lubrizol, among several others.

Not only errors of commission are important, but Buffett has also acknowledged that he made mistakes of omission by not buying Google and Amazon years ago. Buffett also sold Apple far too early, and he sold his position in airline stocks last year during the worst part of the pandemic, Buffett sold the airlines right when they were bottoming.

Buffett made a lot of mistakes over the years, many of them huge mistakes, and he still built one of the biggest fortunes on earth.

How to turn failure into an advantage - MotivationGrid | Michael jordan quotes, Failure quotes, Jordan quotes

Stanley Druckenmiller is one of the most successful hedge fund traders in the world, one of those investing superstars who can move markets with his words. Druckenmiller saw the 1999 tech bubble in its full force, and he lost money on both the short side and the long side.

In early 1999, Druckenmiller shorted $200 million worth of tech stocks in George Soros’s Quantum Fund. He was too early, and he had to close his position for a $600 million loss.

In a move driven by anger and frustration, Druckenmiller reversed his bet and he bought $6 billion in stocks after that. In only six weeks he lost half of that money.

In his own words:

I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basketcase and I couldn’t help myself. So maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that.

The best part of the quote above is that Druckenmiller fully acknowledges that this mistake was not due to a lack of intellectual understanding. He knew full well that he shouldn't do that, but overcoming emotions is hard, even for one of the most successful traders who ever lived.

Importantly, Druckenmiller still managed to achieve enormous success in the market in spite of this gargantuanly expensive mistake.

Mistakes are unavoidable, and mistakes are OK. We build wealth over the years by staying the course and overcoming those mistakes.

Thank you for being there.

#14791 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

Emotional In
"Ronald James Read (October 23, 1921 – June 2, 2014) was an American philanthropist, investor, janitor, and gas station attendant".
A rich philanthropist who is also a janitor and a gas station attendant, quite a unique character in financial history.
Mr. Read worked in a gas station for 25 years, and he swept floors at JC Penney for 17 years. He also served in the U.S. Army in Italy during World War II.
Ronald Read died in 2014 at 92 years of age, with nearly $8 million in assets. He left $1.2 million to Brooks Memorial Library and $4.8 million to Brattleboro Memorial Hospital.
The $8 million janitor did not win the lottery or receive any big inheritances. He just lived frugally and invested in blue-chip stocks for the long term, as simple and powerful as that.
Mr. Read's portfolio was unsophisticated, owning many dividend-paying blue-chip names. He owned 95 stocks, including mostly safe names like Procter & Gamble, JPMorgan Chase, General Electric, and Johnson & Johnson.
Throughout most of his life, Mr. Read was holding on to stocks for the long term, adding to positions and reinvesting the dividends. He was a consistent buyer as opposed to an active trader.
.

So based on this I think we can say that paying a financial advisor to actively manage one’s money is a losing proposition.

I agree.

#14793 2 years ago
Quoted from investingdad:

So based on this I think we can say that paying a financial advisor to actively manage one’s money is a losing proposition.
I agree.

My client’s disagree with you obviously. It’s about creating a holistic game plan for life that integrates legal, tax and financial.

And I do it for less. But most people aren’t as smart as you now are they Investingdad?

I advise people that if you’d like to avoid my fees that start at 80 basis points and include all of the above planning then call my daughter who is a CFP and works at Vanguard. Lol

They usually choose me but hey some people don’t need my help. That’s fine. And between the tax planning and use of indiv stocks, low cost etfs from Vanguard and other options I can bring the net fees WAY down

The floor is all yours Dad!

#14794 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

It’s about creating a holistic game plan for life that integrates legal, tax and financial.

Im in no way throwing shade here, but when I read this I laughed. I pictured Robert Mueller delivering this line right before he pivoted to quad and octo manufacturing.

#14795 2 years ago
Quoted from vicjw66:

Im in no way throwing shade here, but when I read this I laughed. I pictured Robert Mueller delivering this line right before he pivoted to quad and octo manufacturing.

I didn't. This makes sense.

-6
#14797 2 years ago
Quoted from iceman44:

My client’s disagree with you obviously. It’s about creating a holistic game plan for life that integrates legal, tax and financial.
And I do it for less. But most people aren’t as smart as you now are they Investingdad?
I advise people that if you’d like to avoid my fees that start at 80 basis points and include all of the above planning then call my daughter who is a CFP and works at Vanguard. Lol
They usually choose me but hey some people don’t need my help. That’s fine. And between the tax planning and use of indiv stocks, low cost etfs from Vanguard and other options I can bring the net fees WAY down
The floor is all yours Dad!

You’re pretty insecure aren’t you?

#14798 2 years ago

This thread has gone to shit, instead of sharing investment ideas it become back & forth attacks.

Every investment idea should be research to make sure it makes sense for that investor.

Its about portfolio growth, sometimes you will make and sometimes you will lose money.
Sound invests will make you money in the long term.
I thought we where here to make money.

#14799 2 years ago
Quoted from investingdad:

You’re pretty insecure aren’t you?

You yell out your own name a lot, don’t ya?

#14800 2 years ago

With regards to financial planning stuff mentioned above, the problem is that there's an inherent conflict of interest because most financial planners are paid based upon the total assets they manage and/or products they sell. It's like asking a car salesman for car advice, they are naturally going to push you towards buying a new car, even if it's not the best thing for you possibly.

There's also a factor that the better the financial planner you are, the more you actually shouldn't be doing it...like an amazing financial planner could be retired by 30/35, so it's one of those things where the industry lends itself to more and more people who actually aren't great it, while the good ones can retire early.

It also doesn't usually explore asset classes outside of stocks/bonds/some private equity. Businesses, rental real estate, etc are not usually parts of a financial planners plan.

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