I think I am about to wave the white flag on PSTH. At bout break even level. Any thoughts?

I am holding. No news yet. Once there is news, then sell if it isn't a company you want to hold long term.

holy crap - I'm up 50% on UEC in 6 days - making me nervous since it is OTC and pretty tough to trade. Wish I had a chance to build a full position, but only bought the first round of shares. Looks like it's dropping fast. I may punch out

That’s a pay wall article, what was the gist?

There is a lot of analysis in there including technical! My biggest concern would be a difficult regulatory environment in the future like Paris.

"We can think about a stock showing relative strength during a correction as a ball full of air that is being held under the surface of the water in a swimming pool. The market pressure is keeping it down, but the stock itself is performing relatively well considering the circumstances. If market conditions improve, the stock could make a big move higher, such as the ball tends to jump strongly out of the water as soon as you release the pressure.

With other stocks that are down by 30%-40% of their highs, you may have lots of traders who bought at higher prices and are looking to sell when prices recover. Airbnb looks much better from that perspective.

There is no guarantee that the price will keep holding on well if growth stocks continue selling off, but the fact that Airbnb is showing relative strength is a relevant piece of evidence to include in the analysis.

In any case, the $180 area can be considered an important level for risk management purposes, meaning that we can buy the stock and use a stop at 180 to reduce risk if things don't work out well."

Airbnb is a very particular stock, it can be considered both a long-term growth story and a major beneficiary from the reopening and booming travel demand. Management has done a solid job at keeping expenses under control during the pandemic, and the overall impact on revenue was lighter than I would have expected.

A major positive is that most of its customers come from direct channels and it has a leading brand presence in the sector. The network effect provides a sustainable source of competitive advantage, and the business model should allow for attractive profitability in the future, although this still remains to be seen.

The biggest risk is valuation. Airbnb is not too expensive when considering the company's growth potential, but the market is already assigning it a market capitalization of $118 billion. The original IPO target was in the range of $45-$50 in October, while the stock is currently trading at $206.7

It is difficult to assume valuation risk in this market environment, but I don't want to anchor my thinking to prior price levels, because this usually leads to missing many of the best opportunities in the market.

Besides, the company reported a very solid quarter considering the circumstances, and there is a big chance that travel demand is going to widely surpass expectations in the months to come.

In terms of price performance, Airbnb is exhibiting impressive relative strength, so the company's exposure to the reopening seems to be more important than the fact that it is priced like a growth stock judging by the price action recently.

The Business
Airbnb has many of the characteristics that I like in a business model. It is asset-light and it was approaching profitability before the pandemic, the company also benefits from two key sources of competitive advantage: brand recognition and the network effect.

According to the company, 91% of traffic came through direct or unpaid channels in the first nine months of 2020. This is very important because it shows that customers just go straight to Airbnb when they want to travel.

Airbnb also benefits from the network effect, which means that users on both sides of a transaction attract each other to a leading platform such as Airbnb. The platform has more than 4 million hosts all over the world, and those hosts have welcomed hundreds of millions of guests through Airbnb. Supply creates demand and demand crates more supply across a global scale.

The company was delivering bookings growth in the range of 30-35% in 2019 before the pandemic. Then there was a major decline in the first quarter of 2020, and the numbers bottomed in June of last year.

This is actually a good thing in my opinion, we want expectations to be achievable if we are looking for companies that can widely surpass those expectations. A large part of my reflation thesis is that the economic recovery is going to be much stronger than expected. Travel is going to be a major beneficiary from this recovery, as travel is demand is highly linked to discretionary spending, besides, travel is one of the activities that people all over the world have missed the most during the pandemic.

There are also some permanent shifts that could be beneficial to Airbnb. A lot of companies now have the infrastructure for employees to work remotely most of the time. Many people are now able to travel more if they can work from anywhere and they don't need to be physically at the office.

When looking for companies that can benefit from a travel boom, sectors such as airlines, hotels, and cruise companies are direct beneficiaries, but they are also mediocre industries from a long-term perspective. The online travel agencies are more attractive, but the competitive pressure is getting too intense and margins have been declining due to marketing expenses lately.

Airbnb is quite unique in this regard because the company has strong exposure to a recovery in travel and also compelling long term growth prospects. From a fundamental perspective, management seems to be judicious and the company is building solid competitive strengths.

Management said the S-1 report that that total addressable market (“TAM”) is estimated to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion for short-term stays, $210 billion for long-term stays, and $1.4 trillion for experiences.

These numbers should obviously be taken with a big grain of salt, but I do believe that growing travel demand, as well as expansion to emerging markets and adding more properties and experience to the platform, could be strong growth drivers for Airbnb in the years ahead.

The Risks
From a fundamental perspective, valuation is the biggest risk factor. The stock is not too expensive when considering its growth prospects, especially in comparison to other growth stocks in the market. A price to sales ratio around 26 is far from unreasonable for Airbnb if you see it as a strong platform with abundant opportunities in the years ahead.

However, if the market decides to keep repricing growth stocks down, this could have an impact on Airbnb. It's worth noting that the stock has not been affected much by the recent selloff in growth stocks, which can be arguably due to the fact that Airbnb is one of the leading beneficiaries of a recovery in travel demand.

Airbnb also faces regulatory uncertainty, major tourist cities such as Paris require landlords to get particular licenses to operate through Airbnb. In New York and San Francisco, the owners have to prove that they are full-time residents. It is hard to assess how these regulations can evolve in the future, and they could have a material impact on the company.

Competitive pressure is another key consideration since traditional Online Travel Agencies such as Booking (BKNG) are expanding into Airbnb's area. There is also the risk that big tech corporations like Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) may compete more directly versus Airbnb in the future, but my impression is that the tech juggernauts will remain focused on advertising and search in this market as opposed to going straight versus Airbnb.

The lockup period expired after the most recent earnings report, and chances are that we are going to see some insider selling that can affect sentiment toward the stock.

I personally don't worry much about some insider selling in these kinds of companies. To some degree, this is reasonable and even to be expected. If I am your financial advisor and you have both your income and your net worth tied to a single stock, I am going to strongly advise some diversification, no matter how bullish the company's prospects. Regardless o this, insider selling could potentially affect sentiment toward Airbnb and hence the stock price.

We can think about a stock showing relative strength during a correction as a ball full of air that is being held under the surface of the water in a swimming pool. The market pressure is keeping it down, but the stock itself is performing relatively well considering the circumstances. If market conditions improve, the stock could make a big move higher, such as the ball tends to jump strongly out of the water as soon as you release the pressure.

With other stocks that are down by 30%-40% of their highs, you may have lots of traders who bought at higher prices and are looking to sell when prices recover. Airbnb looks much better from that perspective.

There is no guarantee that the price will keep holding on well if growth stocks continue selling off, but the fact that Airbnb is showing relative strength is a relevant piece of evidence to include in the analysis.

In any case, the $180 area can be considered an important level for risk management purposes, meaning that we can buy the stock and use a stop at 180 to reduce risk if things don't work out well.

I guess it can.

Early stimulus went in yesterday - can't go up everyday guys...

Did it go in and actually clear yet? I heard the early stimulus was going to appear in your account as pending this past weekend, but it wouldn't clear until tomorrow (3/17/21).

April is setting up to be a big month.

A month of big optimism regarding reopenings, gdp growth and another tech earnings blowout quarter.

This summer? Let’s see how high oil goes.

And what a ridiculous tax hike in the middle of a pandemic recovery looks like

IF what we hear makes it in there, and I would doubt it, but the cap gains hike for people making over $1 mill will lead to a sell off like you haven’t seen before!

Locking in those LT gains! It NEVER works and only suppresses capital formation and investment

My actual deposit date was 3/12 - not pending - deposit

Why would the sell with a tax hike, I would think the opposite.

Sell after the hike passes but before it takes effect.

Won’t be effective retroactively likely. Wouldn’t get to a vote until fall at earliest

If I can pay 23.8% instead of 40% or whatever they raise that bracket to I will

OR I might simply hold until 2025

It’s not just stocks. Sale of a business, rental home and most assets

As for the Warren unconstitutional wealth tax it will never happen. Except they don’t seem to care about the rules these days

12 countries have tried. Down to 6 now. Mass exodus if they try.

People with money can react accordingly!!

Today is going about how I expected. Market is on edge with the Fed meeting tomorrow. I'm sitting around 90% cash waiting for the next big freak out. Still holding my losers and the Apple I picked up a couple weeks back, and went in on 1000 MAC just now. Might finally dabble in some AI. Seems low enough.

So if I have a 3-5 yr horizon, is it just steady as she goes / ignore the noise?

Or do I hit pause and hold/accumulate my powder for the next sell off.

Either way, buckle up eh?

Someone mentioned Baba being the golden goose?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/china-xi-tech-crackdown-alibaba

Even a goose needs to know it’s place.

I would say ride right through and ignore the noise subject to what the FED says.

#1 rule. Don’t fight the Fed

The companies we invest in won’t be impacted they will just pass that cost right through to the consumer.

Small business, which is the engine for the economy will get hurt short term

Btw, I have no idea how the Fed can say anything definitive regarding rates.

The price of oil could mute any ex oil inflationary pressures and stomp out some gdp growth. Top it off with a tax hike and they would have to take a wait and see approach I think

Iceman how your feelings on pltr
you haven't mentioned it in while just wondering
your feelings on some of the seesaw
still holding long term been buying it on sale
like you always suggest
thanks for your input

This is the biggest fear/unknown that’s why it’s probably looks so cheap because people are scared of the communist government.

I wouldn’t put a ton on BABA but if it’s the Amazon of China it’s got huge upside.

Alex Karp was just on CNBC a few mins ago. I think he gave a good interview. Covered his split with Silicon Valley, leaning into his governmental work, and supporting retail investors.

You didn't ask me but I follow it closely since IPO. My opinion is that it has great prospects over the long run. They got caught up in some of the WSB hype and I think they have settled into their groove.

I bought some Shop for the first time today so of course it’s like down $25/share from my price.

I don’t mind tho as I plan to buy some more so I’d rather get it on sale.

There is no logical reason the Market is not on fire today unless the benefits of the stimulus have already been priced in, or there are underlying issues that negate the stimulus benefits.

MGM still a buy at $40?

Because the market doesn't follow logic. It is all a chess match. Trying to guess what the big movers are going to do and buy/sell accordingly.

Good news for Crowdstrike today: https://www.zdnet.com/article/crowdstrike-in-q4-posts-record-number-of-new-subscription-customers/
It's climbed nearly 6% in after hours trading

Market always is 3 to 6 months ahead of what is currently happening (most of the time)

Market is waiting to see what is happening with the Fed meeting tomorrow. Hence, the relatively quiet day.

GME wasn't quiet! The hedge funds loaded up on over a million borrowed shares this morning and hit it hard early. Shorting it down $50 or 20% l. Like trooper or is, it fought back to only end down $13. My balls feel great!

I was getting ready to check in on you and your balls It was a rough start but you bounced back well. Hope it flies for you tomorrow!

I wanted to buy more under $200 but I didn't have the bash. My stimulus money, like icemans deeproot pin, hasn't arrived

Dare I ask, what's your avg cost basis per share?

$420.69!

hi dblm,
thanks for your answer and opinion on pltr
I was unaware you followed it since its ipo
good to know alot of you smarter guys have followed it. i am kinda new to this stock investing & have been following this thread
daily to learn.
lots of good disciplined info/experience here to learn. So thank you
Also you feel its settled in and is priced right right now or there will be Another pullback making a gd opportunity to buy more

My pleasure, Mike. I am in an adjacent space to PLTR so follow it closely. My personal opinion is that this is probably a good spot to buy. This is where I rebrought after I rode it from 10 to the 30s. Not financial advice, but you can always start taking a position at the level and either average up or down based upon how it moves.

Around $180. I bought some at $69 late last month and have been averaging up since.

hi dblm
bought back at 11 rode it till 28 because everyone was thinking the lockup it was gonna tank. missed the high 30's craze. then bought back at 25, and kept adding it on the drops till 21 so i am priced ok for now and want to add a little more but just watching to see which way it goes and when to pull the trigger . pltr might be on the way up but waiting to see if any govt news puts a small drop in it making a better buy opportunity

Reopening. It popped on news opening up to 50%. What will it do on 100% news?

Plus, conventions will steadily increase until fully booked again. Then attendance follows after

Boom boom

Yes Palantir buy for long term!

Thanks Iceman
pltr for the Win !!!

Evercore “bull case” for Apple is $225

Buy now

Buy dips

Keep buying

There isn’t a safer port in any type of storm

Search my posts on Apple for the past several years.

Hey Ice, do you see this getting back to where it was since it did have a 1:20 reverse split during April of 20 during the pandemic?

“An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan”

Warren Buffet

The price is split adjusted.

Get back? $300, $400?

Oil should go way up.

Michigan latest to stop an ENB pipeline. Loss of jobs and supply choked off

Thank you

I think you are just fine. Like Ice says, it is a great long term play. Category leading company that is actually leaning into working with the government, when Silicon Valley is shying away. As somebody that sells to the government, my presumption is that they will be rewarded for this. Case in point, when Google said they were not going to keep working on Project Maven, it killed their government business. They are still lagging behind AWS and MSFT in this sector. My mentor keeps trying to get me to come over but I don't want to work for the third place team in a sector.

I think Oil has a cap - Opec doesn't want more competition from fracking again, so at some point they will turn up production. Where? I have no idea. And yes, I'm loaded down with energy plays.

The Saudis will make us pay under the new administration and how they called out the Killing of Khashoogi. And doing nothing about it per usual under either administration

They want higher oil prices and it’s coming

didnt MGM already pop 300% in 3 months on zero news?
going from $6 to $24 [mar 18 2020 thru jun 8 2020].

im not down on the sportsbetting ap angle either. i would think the barriers to entry in that market would be pretty low and foresee ample competition. the fallout should be reduced vigorish and generous promotions in order to retain/attract customers at the expense of margins.

also, CZR [caesars] from $6 to a recent high of $105, up 1600%.
pre-covid high was $69.

i wish ice had told me vegas wasnt going to stay closed sooner.

and how about PENN?
up $10 off fridays close [to over $140], in the first 6 min of trading monday mar 15. that gain alone was 200% of its share price approx a year ago when it was sub $5 - a 25x bagger since that time. pre-covid high was only $38.

many stocks have a lot of hopium already priced in at current/recent valuations. im not sharing the optimism that 'reopening' is necessarily going to lead them higher.

decent sell offs
last FOMC jan 27 at 2ET
and powells 12ET speech on mar 4.
markets showed interday strength heading into each event.

Everything and I mean everything minus oil and transportation is in cuckoo land. The fall maybe months away but the check is in the mail..that's for sure.

HEXO reports earnings Thurs AM before open. Should be a nice pop.