I think he hasn't sold any shares. I think it was his calls or options he sold for 14 million

I was bullish on SXOOF this week. In at .45 and out at .60.

I give credit where its due and there's alot of smart traders here...far smarter than me. BUT, I will say we've been in a record bull market for years, so its not terribly difficult to make money during these times. When we have an extended bear market or sideways market, that's when it becomes more strategic and more difficult to sustain gains.

Selling Puts and bull Put credit spreads is where it's at right now!

I was going to nicely say the same thing...THis market is so strong anyone could basically make a killing. Half the stocks Ive made a lot on did not move for 6 months before things got crazy. If we had a long bear market this thread would be like pinside talking about a new stern

It is a great strategy if the stock price stays flat or goes up. If the stock falls significantly, the gains on the covered calls will not offset the losses on the underlying shares you hold long. So you still do have an exposure.

Here is a real example: I bought AEM for $86 on Nov 25 and wrote the June $90 calls for $10.20. The shares closed on Friday at $75.47 so I am down $10.50 on the shares but the calls are still worth around $2.50. So I have made $7.70 on the calls but lost $10.20 on the shares. Writing the calls does cover some of my downside loss, but it is not one for one. I just need the stock to be above $86 by June ideally. I will likely close the covered call position and re-write new calls as the underlying share price hopefully recovers back to the mid $80s.

I am kind of trying the same strategy this year but instead of buying the underlying shares, I am buying in the money calls and selling out of the money or at the money calls, more of a short duration. It involves a lot less capital up front in case the underlying share price drops substantially. Here is an example:

Feb 16 I bought SOS $10 Feb 19 call for $2.69 and sold the $12.50 call for $1.70. So my net cost was $0.99 for the trade and if the stock was above $12.50 on Friday, I could make $2.50-$0.99 or $1.51 or 152% for a three day trade.
On Friday when the stock was trading around $11.80, I bought back the $12.50 call for $0.25 and sold the $10 call for $1.82. So I made $1.45 on the $12.50 call and lost $0.87 on the $10 call for a net gain of $0.58 or $58%. I did not achieve my optimal profit on the trade as the share price was not over $12.50 when I closed the trade.

Just some ideas to think about versus writing covered calls.

I'm writing some cash covered puts, then either taking allocation when in the money, and writing covered calls against my new underlying OR then rewriting more puts. I aim for about 40 days, out, then assess and take profits around 14 days or so to expiry, generally I write around a delta of .30. I'd only do this for things in my core core portfolio, I'd be interesting in holding long (like an ETF or so).

Take PINS for example. As Ice has been pounding the table, I have not been a believer. I have been dead wrong.

So after that kick butt earnings report I relented a bit and looked to open a position. I thought it would probably drift down to 70-75, maybe test 65-70 at worst. Still didn’t feel like chasing it so when it dropped under 80, I bought 1/3rd position and then as it bounced around a bit I sold near the money covered puts for my next 1/3rd position. Basically brought my potential costs at or below my price target.

If it had drifted lower, I would have looked to buy in more or sell puts depending on the situation.

If I had listened to Ice fully, I would have made a lot more, but this was what I was comfortable with and still am squeezing out what would under more typical times be considered a good profit.

PLTR calls for 2/26 could be profitable if it takes off this week

I took a bull call debit spread on PLTR for 3/12. Hopefully that pays off, but if it doesnt my losses are capped.

I'm also trying to get filled on some bear credit spreads against some companies I think are undeservedly riding high levels of optimism surrounding reopening. LYV being one of those. I'm not at all impressed with the company, and they're currently trading at their highest all-time levels despite battered books and a very likely reduced opportunity to earn this year.

That's a good strategy as well. I have all my accounts consolidated at Vanguard and I don't have the option to sell any calls that aren't covered. It may be that they allow it with Level 3 option trading (I only requested level 2). Or they may not allow it at all since they're more of a buy and hold mutual fund place.

SEC starting to suspend trading on several meme stocks through March 4th, MARA got lumped in with it but I think it's movement has to do with Bitcoin price. glad I'm not currently holding any

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/u-securities-regulator-suspends-trading-155017952.html

I'm on wsb regularly and don't seem to have an those stocks mentioned before. PLTR is their newest darling.
Of course hedge funds can continue to manipulate.

Interested in opinion on VOO. What's a good price to look for and buy in based on the experts in here? Thanks in advance

btw...this thread is a very interesting read. I'm not knowledgeable around puts and money calls, but fascinating to read.

I'm more of a buy, hold, and collect dividends. Aside from 401K, I own Apple and Verizon stocks. Apple for growth (loved the stock split last year) and dividends, Verizon for dividends. I guess my investing is more conservative. I have a few things maturing I was going to move into VOO - as it fits with my investment strategy.

These ARK and PLTR are making me pause and consider experimenting with some risk in my portfolio. I always worry about the capital tax gains on buying and selling frequently. Is that just a stoopid thought?

I like VYM, VIG, and VOO very much.

As for your question regarding the taxes, sure, you get taxed more, but you are also locking in profits. It isn't a negative thing if you don't plan to hold them long term. I do think you have to take a different approach to what you pick though. Buy on the hype, sell on the news..or just technicals..etc. Whatever you do, have a plan and stick to it. You'll see tons of stories by people who lost money because they didn't stick to their plan.

Thanks Zablon - will check those out. My strategy to date has been old school. Invest in companies with sound financials, business strategy, and market position. Both the companies I'm sitting on have tons of cash, distribution, and growth trajectories. Increase in dividends better than seeing cash in a money market or lousy return CD.

Tesla scares the crap out of me. I was in the smart car auto industry. What they are doing is awesome. But their financials make me very uneasy. I know I'm in the minority since as you stated, buy on the hype. The old school in me is balance sheet, market dynamics, and competitive position. Speculative investing not my formula to date. But, was going to put some money on the side to experiment. If I lose it, I learned. But won't bet big.

You only pay taxes if you make money - so it isn't a bad thing. Short term will cost more, but paying a percentage of gains you make in a few days etc - I'll pay any day as long as I'm making money...

Most of the stocks discussed these days unlikely make any profit or pay dividends. They seem to be just pure hype. Look at PLTR, 2020 gross revenue $1.1 billion, net loss (1.2) billion. Not sure how long it will take them to make a profit? But nobody seems to care about profits these days.

1.9 Billion shares outstanding.

Yeah i wouldn't want to be in a stock that is up 4000% in a year either.

Wanted to know how much money per week you could expect from say 50K using this strategy? I was looking at the SPY put options.

I got it handed to me one time when an individual stock gapped down. I'm now gun shy when it comes to individual stocks.

I'm just not sure how far out to sell. 10% OTM? 1 month?

Not giving financial advice, and I really can’t give specifics... but it wouldn’t really work that way (weekly), to do a cash secured short put, you’d need to be able to cover 100 x the underlying price. SPY is almost $400. So how many days to expiration were you planning? You also wouldn’t want to use up all allocation to the one put contract, as you might want to manage with more funds as you decide to roll.

You may want to add some higher growth companies in your portfolio and there are some good ETFs for this. If you don’t like TESLA ARK has ARKF Etf as a good option. OGIG may be good for you because it has some of techs old guard like AMZN MFST GOOG FB CRM and no AAPL, which you already have and has the up and coming companies like SE MELI CRWD OKTA PINS SHOP ROKU TTD etc..These companies are past the start up phase and i would guess they are in their 3-4 innings of the game now.
And keep in mind VOO is safer but not safe. March last year it was down 33%. Once rates go up and Fed taps the breaks on their easing of funds in a few years yes High growth will have a solid pullback but VOO will not be immune. Really like Apple and I own and it’s been great but hard for such a large company to grow at a good pace now, so I added a lot of higher growth positions

There is a reason Motley Fool puts this disclaimer on most of their individual stock recommendations they don’t want people putting all their money in a single stock, that’s why funds exist.

“ This stock is one of five timely buying opportunities we've selected from Team Tom's past recommendations. If you're looking for investing ideas today, consider this stock (and our four others!) as worthy additions to a well-balanced portfolio of at least 15 stocks.”

That’s not a disclaimer, that’s click-bait for their paid service. Motley Fool is a joke.

Anybody else feel the market is primed for a nice pullback this year?
I can just smell it in the air......

I keep thinking that, and then it immediately goes right back up....

I'll be shocked if that's the case this week. Futures just took a big dump...almost 1%. Inflation fears are setting in and rightfully so. This market is teetering and its just going to take a bit of bad news to push it over the edge. A lot of the money in flux in the past two years has been from millennial retail investors who have never experienced a bear market. I expect them to flee once there are sustained losses creating an avalanche of pull back. This is entirely my gut feeling and I could be 100% wrong. I'm mostly in cash right now so I put my money where my gut is. I don't mind being wrong on this one.

This is precisely what I do. Sometimes it takes 3 hours. Sometimes it takes 2 years.

I bought CCL last September, it’s doing some moving!

You had the PATIENCE "to let the story play out". Congrats.

Barbell working great today. Re-opening trade, reflation trade, ENERGY and TRAVEL related.

SPG, MGM, EPD, SLB, PXD, MAR, HLT to name a few. The shorts haven't given up fully on MAC yet. The clock is ticking for them on that one too.

This "re-opening", despite the media's attempt and some states effort to continue the lockdown and fear and panic tactics is RAPIDLY approaching.

I believe i saw a number of 63 million people in the US already vaccinated and doing 2 million per day. Do the math.

By the April time frame hits its all-in game on.

MAC joining the party with a nice little pop today. I’m expecting one more quarter of slow growth and then hopefully a nice reward when they raise div and close out some debt.

Ted Lee and his FS Insight service provides a ton of useful data for our persual!

Per Rick Santelli, 1.38% on the 10 yr is resistance going back almost 10 yrs with 2012 and 2016 double bottom.

The conventional wisdom is that rising rates is not good for growth stocks due to the discounting of future earnings at a higher rate and the "TINA effect" eroding. Here is a good synopsis of Lee's take on interest rates and rising PE's. I wish i could show the chart.

"This further constructive action in the VIX makes us think markets will shift to ‘risk-on’ sentiment next week. We want you to consider some of the main macro events on the timeline in 2021. COVID-19 receding, Global GDP acceleration, prodigious fiscal relief, dovish Fed, greater interest in stocks, baby boomers shifting allocations from bonds to stocks, and interest rate increases should all result in equity risk premia collapsing (P/E rising). Wait, P/E’s going up when interest rates rise? It may seem counterintuitive but check out this analysis we did against different rate environments, inflation environments and Fed leadership. If the US 10Y is below 5% and rates are rising P/E will rise."

So you think their dividend is pretty secure? 4.5% yield is pretty decent.

Your facts are slightly off but your thesis is correct. 63M total shots have been given. 13% of the population have gotten at least one shot, which is about 42M out of 329M. The numbers are current as of today.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/01/28/960901166/how-is-the-covid-19-vaccination-campaign-going-in-your-state

It was .75 per quester pre-covid and they cut it to .15 per quarter when things happened. They have said this was to have cash on hand to help weather the shutdown. I’m not expecting it to go back to .75 any time soon, but I got in at 8.71 after Ice had suggested it a few times and I was able to research them a little. They have recovered some, but not all the way like others, so there might still be room for either a growth play or dividend collecting hold.

A good time to short the TLT and corporate bonds?

Ok,, thanks for the info. Could probably squeeze out an additional 37% yield if I wrote the $13 Sept calls for around $3.00.

CCIV!

man I really wish I hadnt sold 2/3 of my NSAV shares last week. Its going crazy right now. Had 750k and after taking profits I have 250k left at .001 cost average. Thought hcmc would be my penny crazy play and didnt take profits on that one. Which I chose better. Either way way up on my pennystock lotto tickets.

Correct. 63 million DOSES, counting two for people who have received both doses.

Also, the people selling the vaccines don't seem to want this information out there, but there is an even better way to gain immunity to Covid-19 than the vaccine: prior infection and recovery. Some of the numbers will be doubled because there are people who had and recovered from Covid-19 but still got vaccinated. There are 28 million new cases so far. But the actual number of infected is probably 2-5x that number; because of people not getting tested or being asymptomatic. If we use a number on the more conservative end of that, 2.5x, that means 70 million infected (with most being recovered). So we have 1/3 of the population already having >95% immunity to severe infection and that number is rapidly rising with the current (and increasing) rate of 1.8 million vaccine doses per day. New cases are rapidly falling and deaths are also declining. The rational conclusion is that this is almost over.

But I guess I'm just not so optimistic. I would like to think that people would get fed up with this crap and start doing "high risk" things they used to do and enjoy but what I've seen from the majority of the population over the past year would lead me to believe otherwise. Scared followers have been proven to be far more common than rational thinkers.

I hope this isn't too off topic as it does relate to stocks that are affected by the response to Covid-19, such as CCL and AMC and many others.

So what are people buying today? I am thinking about getting back in on FVRR, PINS or PSTH.

ethe and gbtc are at discounts right now due to crypto being down. I averaged up a bit on my positions earlier today.

FSLY is down $45 in 2 weeks. Don't know if it's cheap or not. I've been swing trading 200 shares of POSH for a few weeks. Buy around 69, sell 72-74. It works until it doesn't, but it's worked 4 times so far. Bought today to try for a fifth.

I did a market order this morning on Vanguard a minute after the market opened. It didn't execute for almost 120 seconds. That's scary, most brokerages guarantee order execution of market orders in like a second.

Sweet. I bought both, plus the three I mentioned in my post.

Interesting day with the DOW up 40 points, S&P down 0.5%, and Nasdaq down almost 2%.