(Topic ID: 175889)

Stock Market Traders?


By kpg

3 years ago



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    #851 2 years ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    I know this is the stock thread but occasionally things divert to other investments.
    I purchased another single family home I am fixing up to rent.
    I really like my money in hard goods and this one will be positive cash flow as soon as I have a tenant (with Madison at all time high for occupancy rate I am thinking it will be easy to find a tenant like it has the other 2).
    This is the first foreclosure I have purchased for this purpose and a steep but fun learning curve on this one.
    I enjoy the work of fixing them up and with some help from a fellow Pinsider on the property management side, that to has become less stressful and more fun.
    Over time, I hope to have enough income replacement to have F U money for the normal gig

    How do your rentals compare to the average home in your area? I have a few groups of friends/co-workers who have rentals. Some get jokingly referred to as "slum lords" because of their tendency to buy super cheap houses in lower income areas. They know that their turnover and late rent occurrences will be high, but never seem to struggle with tenants. Other people I know have "average" valued houses for the area and have more consistent rental events (rent paid on time, doing $X in repairs to things that go out) but still have their share of stories. It seems that no matter what price range you are in it's a matter of going through renters until you find good ones and then trying to keep them as long as you can.

    I wouldn't mind picking up a property or two at some point and find different experiences of those doing it interesting.

    #852 2 years ago
    Quoted from JY64:

    It sounds like your wife was worried is it set up like a balanced fund with some fixed income

    No fixed income investments but that wasn’t the problem. Her parents are gone with death and Alzheimer’s so she lost her comfort with them being there for her. We have never borrowed money from them and her Mom fortunately has money for the kids to take care of her with her nightmare of a disease though.

    Think my wife had a mid 40’s crisis with her parents gone and having money, but wanting to know we are on track financially. I knew we were, but she is not involved with it enough, but she makes a good income herself and is a smart spender and saver. I went with my wife moving money to the planner because it was not a good time for me to make a stand against it with what she was going through with her family situation.

    I guess “life” happened.

    With a planner involved I think I miss just saying “I helped us get from A to B to C” financially. Did not feel as satisfying having someone else manage our money and watching what he is up to. Kind of stressed me out and pissed me off. Like the planner had money in bond funds making 4% and that is brought down to 3% with his 1% fee?! 25% of the gains go to manage the Bond funds?! We are in our mid 40’s and 20-30+ years of taking 1% out of our bond funds is calculated to be a huge amount paid to him from what we could have picked ourselves. I really don’t want any money in bond funds or cash at all.

    We are switching back to us managing the money and my wife is on board. No arguing or debating. She gets it. We are a team and have made great progress so far and will only use help if we need it in the future.

    Once again I don’t want to go off just talking about our real life financial situation here on a........Pinball site. Lol

    #853 2 years ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    How do your rentals compare to the average home in your area? I have a few groups of friends/co-workers who have rentals. Some get jokingly referred to as "slum lords" because of their tendency to buy super cheap houses in lower income areas. They know that their turnover and late rent occurrences will be high, but never seem to struggle with tenants. Other people I know have "average" valued houses for the area and have more consistent rental events (rent paid on time, doing $X in repairs to things that go out) but still have their share of stories. It seems that no matter what price range you are in it's a matter of going through renters until you find good ones and then trying to keep them as long as you can.
    I wouldn't mind picking up a property or two at some point and find different experiences of those doing it interesting.

    In short, my properties are all single family homes with good bones, but inneed of fixes for deffered maintainence and some updating. i have been working to implement a strategy to find and keep good tenants and so far so good. i buy in nice middle class and upcoming area, where I live. It is in my budget and I find is bringing good tenants. Everything is cash positve on D1. So far, so good.

    The longer term goal is a minumum of ten homes paid for which should pay me 100k per year for as long as I can maintain them. Of course when I get to ten the next goal it twenty and hire a mnagement company. Then as I age and need cash i sell one off every few years till death.

    #854 2 years ago
    Quoted from robgo777:

    Our Family has been a Dave Ramsey follower for close to 15 years now. We only invest in Mutual Funds and paid for Real Estate. We spread our mutual funds evenly over Growth (Large Cap), Growth and Income (Mid Cap), Aggressive Growth (Small Cap), and International.
    If you want to learn more, visit:
    www.daveramsey.com

    Thanks for the tip Dave!

    #855 2 years ago
    Quoted from Whysnow:

    In short, my properties are all single family homes with good bones, but inneed of fixes for deffered maintainence and some updating. i have been working to implement a strategy to find and keep good tenants and so far so good. i buy in nice middle class and upcoming area, where I live. It is in my budget and I find is bringing good tenants. Everything is cash positve on D1. So far, so good.
    The longer term goal is a minumum of ten homes paid for which should pay me 100k per year for as long as I can maintain them. Of course when I get to ten the next goal it twenty and hire a mnagement company. Then as I age and need cash i sell one off every few years till death.

    Cool. The wife and I talked about buying rental property during the last crash but she kept saying she didn't want to be a landlord. The next time the chance comes around that will likely be different, but that time certainly isn't now. Houses have appreciated to almost double their value in my part of town since we bought 6.25 years ago. Not that I want that because I have no plans on moving and prefer my property taxes at the lower side of things.

    #856 2 years ago
    Quoted from desertT1:

    Cool. The wife and I talked about buying rental property during the last crash but she kept saying she didn't want to be a landlord. The next time the chance comes around that will likely be different, but that time certainly isn't now. Houses have appreciated to almost double their value in my part of town since we bought 6.25 years ago. Not that I want that because I have no plans on moving and prefer my property taxes at the lower side of things.

    There are still deals out there. Most recent property was purchased at about 60% of current market value.

    I paid 120k cash, will put about 14k into fix up and could easily sell it for 200-215k once done.
    Granted I wont sell as I want rental active income, so my goal is buy, fix, and HOLD.

    -1
    #857 2 years ago

    ICE MAN can I send you a crap load of cash and not worry about it for a 5 years?
    Must be tough looking for hats.

    #858 2 years ago

    It's also easy to think investing is easy, or you're smart, when the markets have been on a long run up.

    It's a lot harder to stick to the plan with conviction when everything is red.

    That's where the money is made...sticking to plan when it's going poorly.

    #859 2 years ago

    Great thread
    Should I turn my diamonds to gold?

    #860 2 years ago

    What about freshwater stocks? Minerals. Just because I love precious metals.

    #861 2 years ago
    Quoted from PanzerFreak:

    Good points. I moved my 401k allocations from a target year fund to a Fidelity Index Insitutional Premium Class fund (FXAIX). It's returns and low fees (especially compared to target date fund fees) have been great. I wonder if I should spread things out though between three or more funds?

    You are making a common mistake, looking at returns ‘after the fact’ and decide what’s better. Not knowing what will happen going forward.

    Also cardinal sin of comparing two different classes of funds against each other.

    You are likely aware but I’m pointing out Target date fund does not compare to pure stock fund.

    If you say (as you did) it’s returns (especially compared to target date fund). You are saying it’s better than TD fund. And you are using past results to do so.

    TD is a mix of stocks (US and internationals) and bonds.

    These three classes don’t corrilate with each and lately US stocks returned more than either other class.

    People (some) like to own non correlating assets like stocks *and* bonds * and* international stocks.

    This is not to gain the biggest one year number return but to have a few eggs in different baskets.

    When 2008 happened this is what stock v bond return looks like.

    0C6E7317-02EA-4E95-BC76-96C0228D836C (resized).png

    And all stock chart 47% decline peak to low. The above shows total returns for the year was less loss because had some gains to erase first. But it’s no fun looking at 47% loss especially if you have large investment at stake.

    FE3BE21F-4F71-41DB-A660-B457D06EE54D (resized).png

    Bonds aren’t sexy or make great returns but can help cushion a huge stock market correction and can be used to rebalance (buy more stocks when they are on sale after a crash).

    I don’t favor a Target Date fund but prefer separate stock and bond funds with some international stocks as well.

    #862 1 year ago

    I haven't posted my transactions in a while...so here is yesterday's actions:

    Purchased 700 Shares of Netflix @ $368
    Sold 7 Netflix Calls @ $14.04 October $415

    Purchased 1,000 Shares of First Solar @ $53.54
    Sold 10 First Solar Calls @ $2.72 September 57.50
    Sold 10 First Solar Puts @ $2.52 September 50

    Sold 791 Shares of Blackstone Group Made 4k (too many small lots to break down)

    Sold 1,000 Shares of Harley bought @ $47.57 sold @ $43.04

    Sold 1,000 Shares of Disney bought @ $101.35 sold @ $111.28

    Covered 5 Amazon Puts sold @ $32.79 bought back @ $4.52

    #863 1 year ago

    trekkie1978 SELL THE BLOCKBUSTER STOCK!!!!

    #864 1 year ago

    Hmmm bought $300,000 worth of Netflix and First Solar...

    #865 1 year ago
    Quoted from lancestorm:

    Hmmm bought $300,000 worth of Netflix and First Solar...

    I wish I had those problems. I'm happy when I buy a few shares of NSC or something.

    #866 1 year ago

    Covered 5 Google Puts August 1,080 for $0.49 today.

    Originally sold on June 6, for $23.10

    #867 1 year ago
    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    I haven't posted my transactions in a while...so here is yesterday's actions:
    Purchased 700 Shares of Netflix @ $368
    Sold 7 Netflix Calls @ $14.04 October $415
    Purchased 1,000 Shares of First Solar @ $53.54
    Sold 10 First Solar Calls @ $2.72 September 57.50
    Sold 10 First Solar Puts @ $2.52 September 50
    Sold 791 Shares of Blackstone Group Made 4k (too many small lots to break down)
    Sold 1,000 Shares of Harley bought @ $47.57 sold @ $43.04
    Sold 1,000 Shares of Disney bought @ $101.35 sold @ $111.28
    Covered 5 Amazon Puts sold @ $32.79 bought back @ $4.52

    Just curious what makes you so bullish on Netflix?

    #868 1 year ago
    Quoted from Rondogg:

    Just curious what makes you so bullish on Netflix?

    Solid company, that sold off.

    At these prices, I think it's a good area to start accumulating it. I don't expect a quick turnaround in the stock, that's why I told the October 415 calls. If the stock stays flat, then I reduced my cost basis by 14 points. Come October, I'd sell more calls on it.

    #869 1 year ago

    Can u give more info on ur options buys and sells
    I am new to trading.need your to dumb it right down for me.
    Where are u buying from ? What site ?
    Can u post more details.
    Thanks

    #870 1 year ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    Can u give more info on ur options buys and sells
    I am new to trading.need your to dumb it right down for me.
    Where are u buying from ? What site ?
    Can u post more details.
    Thanks

    1 - I do options through my financial advisor.

    2 - New people to trading should stay away from options.

    #871 1 year ago

    Thanks for the tip,
    You don’t trade ur own options? You call a broker ?
    What size trade was the last one you posted ?
    Do you recommend any books on option trading ?

    #872 1 year ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:What size trade was the last one you posted ?

    Quoted from Trekkie1978:

    Covered 5 Google Puts August 1,080 for $0.49 today.
    Originally sold on June 6, for $23.10

    If you don't understand this, you definitely should stay away from options or visit /r/wallstreetbets

    #873 1 year ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    Thanks for the tip,
    You don’t trade ur own options? You call a broker ?
    What size trade was the last one you posted ?
    Do you recommend any books on option trading ?

    tastytrade.com will supply you with a shitton of education on the world of options and other derivatives free of charge. But for the love of God, spend some serious time either paper trading using one of the platforms that have that built in (thinkorswim is one for example) or trading extremely small (one contract max trading size in lower value underlying securities) until you've got some real world understanding about how it all works. It's a very easy place to go belly up quick.

    #874 1 year ago

    I don’t think it’s wise to option trade unless you have six figures plus plus to work with.

    Options consist of 100 shares for example 100 shares of Apple is $19,000+

    You can trade much cheaper stocks like GE $13 so 100 shares is only $1300 but then you won’t make any money and you’ll want to trade 10-20 contracts and then you are into $13K to $26K a pop.

    I read a book called the power curve amazon.com link » can get you started, but like others have said better not to trade options or at least understand what’s going on before doing any real trades.

    The safest thing is what’s called selling a covered call. Example you own 100 of a given stock xyz price $90/share. Can sell a covered call. (Sell a call) that expires in 90 days at strike price of $95 and you’d get paid $300 (this is just an example). You could sell a call for shorter time or longer time get more the longer out. Also closer or farther from stock price example could sell call option at $90/share and get paid $800 let’s say. If the stock price stays below the strike price you keep the stock and keep the option premium. If the stock goes over the strike price example it goes to $100 you are forced to sell at the agreed strike price such as $95/share and you’d loose the excess gain it might have had if you hadn’t sold the call. You can own the stock and get the dividend as well as sell a call that would be like double dividend but the risk it might get called away if it runs up in price..

    IMO options work best for high net worth individuals who don’t blink when they have to buy or sell 100 or 1000 shares at a time. Option premiums have been described as picking up nickels in front of a steam roller but can be made to work ok if you are careful.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4083775-picking-nickels-front-steam-roller

    Some people will buy a stock example VZ for $50 it pays 5% dividend and they might immediately sell a call at $52 to pick up another $1/share so they really paid $49/share and they can repeat this again and again keep selling calls once one expires and picking up another $1/share. The risk is VZ can loose money say go down to $40 so it’s the same as being long in any stock or the stock could explode and go to $55/ share and you are locked in to selling at $52/share.

    #875 1 year ago

    Next safest (imo) is selling puts which means you’ll buy the stock if it falls below the strike price.

    Example AAPL now sells at $190/share. You could sell a put for example January 18 2019 strike price $150 you would commit to buy 100 shares if the stock if it falls below $150 and you might get paid $500 for the risk that Apple might fall much lower than $150 in the next 6 months.

    However maybe you want to buy Apple but would rather get it cheaper. This example gives you $5/share premium and won’t force you to buy the shares unless it falls below $150 so your price would be $145. If apple doesn’t ever fall below $150 the contract would expire and you keep the premium or you could buy it back before the expiration date.

    This is good if you have money behind your name. If you don’t have $15K when the options is put on you you’d need to take a loan (margin loan) that can be high interest rate.

    #876 1 year ago

    Honest, Thanks for the feedback !!!
    If I want to make 1000.00$ bets, not investments
    What can you imagine would be the highist reward/ biggest /quickest risk in the market I could try ?
    I like options because of the compounded risk, any info on increasing the risk and reward,
    is what I am looking for.

    #877 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    You are making a common mistake, looking at returns ‘after the fact’ and decide what’s better. Not knowing what will happen going forward.
    Also cardinal sin of comparing two different classes of funds against each other.
    You are likely aware but I’m pointing out Target date fund does not compare to pure stock fund.
    If you say (as you did) it’s returns (especially compared to target date fund). You are saying it’s better than TD fund. And you are using past results to do so.
    TD is a mix of stocks (US and internationals) and bonds.
    These three classes don’t corrilate with each and lately US stocks returned more than either other class.
    People (some) like to own non correlating assets like stocks *and* bonds * and* international stocks.
    This is not to gain the biggest one year number return but to have a few eggs in different baskets.
    When 2008 happened this is what stock v bond return looks like.

    And all stock chart 47% decline peak to low. The above shows total returns for the year was less loss because had some gains to erase first. But it’s no fun looking at 47% loss especially if you have large investment at stake.

    Bonds aren’t sexy or make great returns but can help cushion a huge stock market correction and can be used to rebalance (buy more stocks when they are on sale after a crash).
    I don’t favor a Target Date fund but prefer separate stock and bond funds with some international stocks as well.

    I enjoy learning from my fellow pinsider stock market traders, in this unusual thread. Here’s a question for the financial gurus on this thread, which addresses the notion that it’s foolish to attempt to invest based upon short-term timing of market trends:

    I know this pinball enthusiast quite well who is wholly unsophisticated with financial markets. Because he’s 59 years old, his retirement fund portfolios were, until very recently, in moderate risk investments in the aggregate. In the last few months, he has moved his entire portfolio into very low risk investments. He did so because of bearish concerns in the near offing, specifically, the scenario as follows:

    1) special counsel, Robert Mueller, releases a report or takes other action prior to Labor Day 2018. The timing is intentional. Mr. Mueller wants to avert the criticism of releasing explosive information on the eve of the midterm elections. Also, his survival as special counsel is dubious after the midterms, with the ever-increasing threats to fire U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and other threats by POTUS and GOP legislators against ancillary persons associated with the Russian election interference investigation;
    2) the Mueller report creates uncertainty about whether POTUS will serve the remainder of his term and/or a Constitutional crisis arises therefrom;
    3) markets plunge in reaction to that uncertainty, as they did in December 2017 (Dow Jones industrial average dropping 350 points) when journalist, Brian Ross of ABC News, incorrectly implicated POTUS in reporting upon conversations with Michael Flynn involving Russia.

    My pinball friend does not understand why “timing” of markets is generally regarded as a fool’s errand. Certainly, if he had a time machine enabling him to predict future events, he would buy low and sell high and take all measures timed to those key known events. Consequently, if he’s confident in the above scenario and its timing, his looking-glass serves as his personal time machine, for better or for worse. Naturally, his prediction of events and the markets’ reactions to those events could be entirely wrong. Nevertheless, if he’s comfortable with trying to time his investments to such events, what is the defect in his logic, apart from conventional wisdom that it’s very difficult to time such events?

    My neophyte investment prognosticator, pinball friend relies on his acumen as a Constitutional scholar and a political junkie. He is certain that many others foresee this foreboding scenario and have likewise shifted their portfolios in advance of the anticipated plunge. This post is not meant, in any fashion, to be a political statement. Rather, this is a serious inquiry about how investors ought to view political events and their perceived dramatic effect on the financial markets. I (on behalf of my friend, of course) look forward to the words of wisdom to follow from the gurus.

    #878 1 year ago

    Anyone buying AT&T at these prices?

    #879 1 year ago

    This is hilarious not because I want your friend to lose money but this is exactly what *not* to do. At least myself, I don’t time anything, I pick an asset allocation and stick with it and invest when I have the money usually we get paid monthly and we invest monthly.

    They say tune out the noise. Remember when Trump won the elections people were saying the market would crash and instead it rose quite well.

    Anyway best to educate yourself and turn out the noise.

    Can’t predict what will happen in the future not even one week in advance. Back in 1987the market was doing well until it wasn’t and lost 22% in one day. Who knows when the next crash will be? Could be tomorrow could be 5 years from tomorrow you can’t predict it so just be aware it can happen and if you can’t stand that much it’s better to hedge and have some bonds as ballast imo.

    478306F5-44E7-4412-AA54-92B741236C06 (resized).png

    #880 1 year ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    Honest, Thanks for the feedback !!!
    If I want to make 1000.00$ bets, not investments
    What can you imagine would be the highist reward/ biggest /quickest risk in the market I could try ?
    I like options because of the compounded risk, any info on increasing the risk and reward,
    is what I am looking for.

    YOLO! This is the community for you! I'm there too, FYI:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

    Post your trades as soon as you make them please.

    #881 1 year ago
    Quoted from rai:

    They say tune out the noise. Remember when Trump won the elections people were saying the market would crash and instead it rose quite well.

    It did crash temporarily. Dow futures were down like 800 points around midnight to 2am, and then rebounded when Donald gave a somewhat pleasant and open celebratory speech.

    #882 1 year ago

    Taking a few bones out to buy Star Wars Pro. Why not?

    Cheers

    #883 1 year ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    Thanks for the tip,
    You don’t trade ur own options? You call a broker ?
    What size trade was the last one you posted ?
    Do you recommend any books on option trading ?

    I have a fee based account. Fee covers every transaction I make.

    7 calls = 700 shares

    I didn't read any books on options. Took an investments class in college. Teacher knew his stuff on options...one of the few classes where I paid attention.

    95% of the option I deal with, have rich premiums.

    The reason why I covered my Google puts, was because I would need to hold onto them for 1 more month in order to make an additional $250. Just not worth the risk.

    I ended up making 98% out of a possible 100% on the transaction...just call me a sore winner.

    #884 1 year ago
    Quoted from Londonpinball:

    Honest, Thanks for the feedback !!!
    If I want to make 1000.00$ bets, not investments
    What can you imagine would be the highist reward/ biggest /quickest risk in the market I could try ?
    I like options because of the compounded risk, any info on increasing the risk and reward,
    is what I am looking for.

    You're better off going to a casino if this is your view and approach.

    Or... just send me your money and I'll flip a coin. If it comes up heads, I'll mail you back a check for 10x the original amount. Tails, I keep what you sent.

    Honestly...i don't think option trading is in your best interest.

    #885 1 year ago

    Did anyone else see the report that sales of Facebook stock by Zuckerberg accounted for 80% of the recent huge downturn?

    #886 1 year ago
    Quoted from phil-lee:

    Did anyone else see the report that sales of Facebook stock by Zuckerberg accounted for 80% of the recent huge downturn?

    http://www.neonnettle.com/features/1469-mark-zuckerberg-caught-dumping-billions-in-facebook-stock-ahead-of-crash

    #887 1 year ago

    Same reason Bill Gates sells 10s of millions every yr Gates and Zuckerburg both have charitable foundations they fund with shares

    #888 1 year ago
    Quoted from phil-lee:

    Did anyone else see the report that sales of Facebook stock by Zuckerberg accounted for 80% of the recent huge downturn?

    It was 80% of insider sales

    #889 1 year ago

    The biggest rats leave a sinking ship first.

    #890 1 year ago

    No idea what I'm doing, so don't fallow me, but I decided to buy GE again.

    3 weeks later
    #891 1 year ago

    The S&P is back up to an all-time high. Is it time to put 401K money in a safe investment (bond fund)???

    #892 1 year ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    The S&P is back up to an all-time high. Is it time to put 401K money in a safe investment (bond fund)???

    Depends on how many years to retirement. If 5 or less maybe. I have around 23 years left so going to ride the ups and downs and leave my 401k funds where they are.

    #893 1 year ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    The S&P is back up to an all-time high. Is it time to put 401K money in a safe investment (bond fund)???

    Really you shouldn't try and time the market like that. You should set your asset allocation and leave it alone if the market is up or down.

    Assest allocation is one of the most important decisions you can make in investing. It helps to stay the course in good times and bad rather than make moves (aka guesses) that get you whipsawed.

    Assest allocation is a very individual thing based on your specific situation but you do not have to be an expert to do it right. Plenty of resources out there to help you along. Boglehead forums is a good place to start.

    #894 1 year ago
    Quoted from PanzerFreak:

    Depends on how many years to retirement. If 5 or less maybe. I have around 23 years left so going to ride the ups and downs and leave my 401k funds where they are.

    Yes, timing the market is for my brokerage account. My retirement account is "time in the market".

    #895 1 year ago
    Quoted from smailskid:

    Really you shouldn't try and time the market like that. You should set your asset allocation and leave it alone if the market is up or down.
    Assest allocation is one of the most important decisions you can make in investing. It helps to stay the course in good times and bad rather than make moves (aka guesses) that get you whipsawed.
    Assest allocation is a very individual thing based on your specific situation but you do not have to be an expert to do it right. Plenty of resources out there to help you along. Boglehead forums is a good place to start.

    I was going to type a long reply but this is basically it.

    Do a google search “can you time the market?”

    Most stock market gains happen by being in for the large days. If you drop out of stocks you will miss any big days that occur during that time.

    You should never be out of the market but also should be in bonds at the same time it’s called asset allocation.

    #896 1 year ago
    Quoted from smailskid:

    Really you shouldn't try and time the market like that. You should set your asset allocation and leave it alone if the market is up or down.
    Assest allocation is one of the most important decisions you can make in investing. It helps to stay the course in good times and bad rather than make moves (aka guesses) that get you whipsawed.
    Assest allocation is a very individual thing based on your specific situation but you do not have to be an expert to do it right. Plenty of resources out there to help you along. Boglehead forums is a good place to start.

    I agree to some extent. However, I feel pretty confident in saying that the market will dip significantly below where it is today within the next 10 years (likely much sooner). Buying back in at a lower price would be money saved and increase the amount of profits on the way back up. Buying back in does not have to be at the lowest price. It just has to be lower than where you sold.

    #897 1 year ago

    I am close enough to retirement that I could stay out from today if I sold and earn around 2% per year in the bond fund to be ok even if I never bought back in, but my wife is in for a more immediate retirement so her's is more risky.

    #898 1 year ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    I agree to some extent. However, I feel pretty confident in saying that the market will dip significantly below where it is today within the next 10 years (likely much sooner). Buying back in at a lower price would be money saved and increase the amount of profits on the way back up. Buying back in does not have to be at the lowest price. It just has to be lower than where you sold.

    I agree with you that the market will likely dip significantly in the next ten years or sooner.....but..... when? and by how much? How much could it rise between now and when this significant correction hits? After you have sold, when will you know it is the right time to buy back in? To make money you have to make 2 correct decisions...when to get out and when to get back in.

    So I agree....if you sell it right and buy it right you can save/make money and yes you don't have to be perfect.

    I could go on but in general, while you could be right this time, it is not best the way to invest long term for the average investor.

    However its your money..... If you have a well thought out thesis and great confidence that you are right..... then there is only one thing to do and that is back up your conviction with $$$$.

    Personally I think it is a game that most will lose over time.

    #899 1 year ago

    What if the market continues to rise for the next year? You’d need to wait for it to just come back below today’s price.

    It doesn’t work. You are not smarter than everyone else in the world, we don’t know what the market will do tomorrow let alone next week or next year.

    #900 1 year ago
    Quoted from DCFAN:

    I am close enough to retirement that I could stay out from today if I sold and earn around 2% per year in the bond fund to be ok even if I never bought back in, but my wife is in for a more immediate retirement so her's is more risky.

    Ideally these would be treated as two accounts in one portfolio with the same objective. You seem to be looking at them as separate entities.

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